Norwee/ofmercia need to vote Strange IMO because Kitty is the mark for scum team in this solve because of his townread of Strange.
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2022 3:14 pm
by ofmercia
In post 795, Frogsterking wrote:There are partner tells on this page of Progo + Strange. Progo has a poor read progression on Strange and claims to be willing to push Strange while not directing much shade heavily in that direction. Then, on this page Progo asks strange a question (a very easy question) and Strange completely ignores Progo.
Progo claims to be willing to execute Strange but I think there's a reasonable chance Progo is lying and the solve is actually Progo + Strange.
I say we call Progo on his bluff and flip the vote onto Strange. I think if Progo tries to resist a Strange wagon now that he's claimed he's willing to change the execution then Progo is caught lying about Strange and I FoS both of them for the team.
Strange answered the question from progo.
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2022 3:17 pm
by ofmercia
In post 797, Frogsterking wrote:By the way I think if fwog is actually scum then their partner is modt likely Strange, that's part of the reason I like this vote.
I can see strange + fwog. I do think it's kitty + fwog though.
In post 795, Frogsterking wrote:There are partner tells on this page of Progo + Strange. Progo has a poor read progression on Strange and claims to be willing to push Strange while not directing much shade heavily in that direction. Then, on this page Progo asks strange a question (a very easy question) and Strange completely ignores Progo.
Progo claims to be willing to execute Strange but I think there's a reasonable chance Progo is lying and the solve is actually Progo + Strange.
I say we call Progo on his bluff and flip the vote onto Strange. I think if Progo tries to resist a Strange wagon now that he's claimed he's willing to change the execution then Progo is caught lying about Strange and I FoS both of them for the team.
Strange answered the question from progo.
Let me check. It's going to need to be some profound stuff.
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2022 3:31 pm
by Frogsterking
@ofmercia @kitty
If I share something to make you more confident in my gamesolve will you sheep my vote on Strange?
I'm so sorry for my god awful play, i'm usually better than this.
Do you think scum are pushing you now? I'd like for more than this as an reaction to E-1 tbh.
Both of em are probably on my wagon
It'd be a bad play if one/none weren't
Why would it be a bad play? It'd be pretty good actually if scum managed to not be on your wagon or just 1. Since you'd flip town.
Yes I agree it would be a bad play if scum weren't on your wagon, if you flipped scum. Which is why kitty joined. He's your partner isn't he?
Why I think it's a bad play for both scum to be on my wagon is because my town flip makes the game easyish to solve from there fmpov. It's a pool of three, so you pick apart which one has the weakest case against me and go from there (at least that's what I would do).
So you either have one scum on the wagon (which is most likely) or none at all, and that makes the game exponentially harder to solve.
(Also this response comes from the knowledge of not having as many votes as I thought I did so my opinion has changed from that question, sorry if I made it super confusing)
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2022 4:48 pm
by Frogsterking
In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:
1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.
2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.
I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2022 4:49 pm
by fwogcarf
The only way that makes sense to me for the Tist kill is PR hunting atm, so my previous statement on that is invalid. Scum does not look like they care about killing people who are actively solving it seems.
I think Frogster/Ofmercia are both town. I'm gonna backread more in a moment
In post 811, Frogsterking wrote:Feel free to grill me about my play because your decision about whether to trust me is very important
I assumed you had something big that would gain my confidence for a sheep. Not just a speculation on who you think the power roles are.
It's not a speculation it's a demonstration and it's working. I can't change your mind, only you can do that, and I think trying to ask the right questions is good play here, regardless of the result.
I'm so sorry for my god awful play, i'm usually better than this.
Do you think scum are pushing you now? I'd like for more than this as an reaction to E-1 tbh.
Both of em are probably on my wagon
It'd be a bad play if one/none weren't
Why would it be a bad play? It'd be pretty good actually if scum managed to not be on your wagon or just 1. Since you'd flip town.
Yes I agree it would be a bad play if scum weren't on your wagon, if you flipped scum. Which is why kitty joined. He's your partner isn't he?
Why I think it's a bad play for both scum to be on my wagon is because my town flip makes the game easyish to solve from there fmpov. It's a pool of three, so you pick apart which one has the weakest case against me and go from there (at least that's what I would do).
So you either have one scum on the wagon (which is most likely) or none at all, and that makes the game exponentially harder to solve.
(Also this response comes from the knowledge of not having as many votes as I thought I did so my opinion has changed from that question, sorry if I made it super confusing)
Norway asked you if you thought scum were on your wagon, and you said yes they are, it'd be a bad play if scum weren't.
Now your answer seems to have changed to yes they are on your wagon and it's a bad play from them.
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2022 4:56 pm
by fwogcarf
Spoiler:
In post 723, ofmercia wrote:It's fwog though. Day 1 votes and reads are both almost solely based on activity. This shows a weariness to make/commit to an actual read (since mafia have to pretend to make scum reads) in fear of looking like an act.
Also this night kill is fwog's way of:
1. Progressing the mafia objective.
2. Eliminating the player he thinks will be most town.
3. Getting rid of a player that is suspicious of him.
1. He starts day 2 off with 615, the objective here is for mafia to look busy and hope town will start looking into why tist was killed. But throws me in there as the scum read of tist but doesn't outright case me for it, just shade in hopes to get a town bite. I don't think he gets any bites from town in 615 but tries again in 717. His interest in the night kill stems from him carrying it out and giving it a lot of thought and investment to just be swept under the rug.
In post 615, fwogcarf wrote:Has Ofmercia scum, Fwog weaker scum, Norweigan Town (Places votes on the first two)
Townleaned Kitty, made an association with Progo/StrangeMatter being t/w (No read on StrangeMatter)
Voted FrogsterKing on inactivity
StrangeMatter felt more town
Scumreads Auto, townleans fwog
puts together some worlds
I can see ofmercia making a fearkill here although i'm pretty sure it would not be that obvious
In post 717, fwogcarf wrote:You guys think the Tist kill was made to provide us with little info?
Or something along those lines.
Seeing a lot of "we don't have a lot to work with" (throwing myself into this as well because I am genuinely lost on who the team could be.)
2. Eliminating the player he thought was the most town, in 543 we can see his thought process, no one else thought this.
In post 541, ofmercia wrote:Tisd and fwog any player you think is scum and gives info on elimimation? I could be wrong but I feel auto gives no leads if he flips green.
Norway do you think auto is a good elimination?
I still think Auto is scum here but you are right in terms of info.
All he does if he flips red is spew Tist town imo.
You flipping red would spew Kitty town and vice versa, but I feel like scum would want to get rid of the more talkative players first instead of the lowposting ones.
3. Getting rid of a player that is suspicious of him. In 615 above you can see fwog done the research for me and found out that tist was scum reading him day 1.
Don't think I ever answered this.
Auto's ISO was mostly consisted of Tist, and so I thought "Auto and Tist can't be partners because I don't think a mafia member would consistently scumread their partner for the entirety of D1.
I'm so sorry for my god awful play, i'm usually better than this.
Do you think scum are pushing you now? I'd like for more than this as an reaction to E-1 tbh.
Both of em are probably on my wagon
It'd be a bad play if one/none weren't
Why would it be a bad play? It'd be pretty good actually if scum managed to not be on your wagon or just 1. Since you'd flip town.
Yes I agree it would be a bad play if scum weren't on your wagon, if you flipped scum. Which is why kitty joined. He's your partner isn't he?
Why I think it's a bad play for both scum to be on my wagon is because my town flip makes the game easyish to solve from there fmpov. It's a pool of three, so you pick apart which one has the weakest case against me and go from there (at least that's what I would do).
So you either have one scum on the wagon (which is most likely) or none at all, and that makes the game exponentially harder to solve.
(Also this response comes from the knowledge of not having as many votes as I thought I did so my opinion has changed from that question, sorry if I made it super confusing)
Norway asked you if you thought scum were on your wagon, and you said yes they are, it'd be a bad play if scum weren't.
Now your answer seems to have changed to yes they are on your wagon and it's a bad play from them.
Because it makes more sense for them to be on my wagon if I had FIVE votes. It makes no sense for both of them to be on when I have THREE.
Five people is harder to shuffle through than three
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2022 5:00 pm
by ofmercia
In post 817, Frogsterking wrote:In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:
1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.
2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.
I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.
This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.