Mafiascum.net

In post 823, Mr. Flay wrote:So your entire argument boils down to an hour or two of bad math. Got it.

Incorrect. My argument boils down to your logic. There is only one reason to want to go down the left path and that is to reduce the chance of lynching scum in the event that Nacho is town.

In post 823, Mr. Flay wrote:Also, you are COMPLETELY ignoring my question about why nonNacho Scum would let the game get to its current state. That is the 'gamestate' factor that you are completely ignoring in your quest to make this a probability game. It's not. It's a logic game and the course of action that leads to nonNacho scum makes NO SENSE.

I have not ignored your question. I have agreed that it would have made more sense to make a kill numerous times. Why didn’t they kill? WIFOM.
What is the conclusion you are trying to extract from exploring this WIFOM? It is to lynch Nacho. Does Nacho still get lynched by taking the right hand path? Yes. So what’s your argument again?

In post 823, Mr. Flay wrote:So yes, lynch me, lynch somebody, then lynch Nacho. I'm confident I'll be right in the end, and if not, hey, I still have a 74% chance of winning!

If you are willing to stake this game on the fact you think Nacho is scum then sit back, fall on your townie sword and watch as we end up lynching Nacho in the long run anyway. NachoScum dies in every scenario.

In post 824, Mr. Flay wrote:

In post 822, champinoman wrote:- What’s wrong with a 3p LyLo including a confirmed townie? Seems better than a 3p LyLo with no confirmed townies to me.

Why would scum POSSIBLY give you that chance?? All you've done is give them a roadmap for how to win with your graph?

As a confirmed townie I am not letting scum choose which odds they get. I am aiming to get to 3p LyLo with confirmed townie to make the decision easier. The only way we are going to end up at 3p LyLo with no confirmed townie is if scum manage to convince us to lynch Nacho today. So, is there another reason you are pushing so hard for a Nacho lynch today?

In post 825, champinoman wrote:So what’s your argument again?

In case you haven't noticed, no argument. I'm down with the Right Branch method. I just think two of the lynches will be unnecessary, is all.

.

I hope you are right. I still think Nacho is the most likely scum. But I'm in no hurry and don't want to lose this game because we rushed to lynching him.

I admit I'm partially frustrated because I didn't expect this game to go on 3-4 months...

I agree. We gave Nacho a chance to defend himself and has dragged this game out like crazy. Stubbs has been quiet. And Karnage hasn't said anything more than needed to avoid a prod.

In post 829, Mr. Flay wrote:I admit I'm partially frustrated because I didn't expect this game to go on 3-4 months...

I don't like how you're unwilling to go against the plan because "fuck the plan". I might be reading you incorrectly, but you don't seem very happy with it.

In post 816, StubbsKVM wrote:

In post 813, Nachomamma8 wrote:

In post 800, Mr. Flay wrote:But I don't think it's THAT much better, and it makes NO sense in the larger context of the game.

Who are you lynching in Stubbs-You-Karnage lylo after I flip town?
This question goes out to all three of you.

Flay

Why aren't you vying for him now?

Karnage, what do you think of the plan?

I don't understand the question?

The plan makes some mathematical sense, but I think it is short-sighted and unnecessary in the context of the larger game. But since the only real loss is time, I'm not going to rail against it took hard.

"too hard." Stupid phone.

Well, we still have time, no?

We don't need to speedlynch him.

In post 813, Nachomamma8 wrote:

In post 800, Mr. Flay wrote:But I don't think it's THAT much better, and it makes NO sense in the larger context of the game.

Who are you lynching in Stubbs-You-Karnage lylo after I flip town?
This question goes out to all three of you.

If you were to flip town I would most likely vote for flay as throughout the game he has been a scummier read for me than stubbs.

In post 831, Nachomamma8 wrote: Karnage, what do you think of the plan?

It's reasonable but I can really see you being scum and worry that we are over complicating things.

BTW, is there a reason you never addressed this:

In post 709, Karnage wrote:

In post 683, Nachomamma8 wrote:

In post 671, Karnage wrote:3 - Under what conditions is it appropriate for a massclaim?

What do you mean?

In Newbie 1388 you said "i think we should have a massclaim because it's optimal with one scum down." but in 474 you seemed to be against a massclaim even though we were one scum down. Why a massclaim in one but not the other?

In post 832, Mr. Flay wrote:I don't understand the question?

The plan makes some mathematical sense, but I think it is short-sighted and unnecessary in the context of the larger game. But since the only real loss is time, I'm not going to rail against it took hard.

OK.

In post 834, StubbsKVM wrote:Well, we still have time, no?

We don't need to speedlynch him.

But we should probably start talking about him now...

In post 835, Karnage wrote:If you were to flip town I would most likely vote for flay as throughout the game he has been a scummier read for me than stubbs.

Why?

In post 835, Karnage wrote:BTW, is there a reason you never addressed this:

I didn't want to have a massclaim in this game because I wasn't sure that it would bring good information with the two no kills. The other game had one scum down AND a kill after that so there was going to be 2 clears no matter what.

Nacho, Why aren't you voting Flay yet?

I don't think Flay is scum. I don't know who I think is scum at the moment.

In post 838, Nachomamma8 wrote:I don't know who I think is scum at the moment.

This has been the pattern since you asked for control of the lynch. It's incredibly scummy from my perspective, seeing what it's done to the morale of the game.

I lynched Feel It pretty easily. Generic was a bit rocky, but it was pretty obvious I thought he was scum. Now I don't think you are scum, and I'm currently deciding why we shouldn't just speedlynch them both.

Both being who exactly?

you and karnage.

If you think that's a bad idea, there is this awesome town case on Flay that you could respond to at any time.

In post 754, Nachomamma8 wrote:Stubbgame 1
Stubbgame 2

Played a couple games with Stubbtown before, haven't seen him as scum. He was fairly easy for me to read as town both times, hence his trust in me having the ability to read him. Generally when you read someone fairly easily a couple of times and have proven yourself a competent scumhunter elsewhere, the interaction between the two of you gets extremely hard to fake when the readable one gets scum. If you read the second Stubbgame, you see me retreating from penguin after she brings out the "Nacho has 100% read me before. Weird." posting, and if you take a gander through Open 507, you'll notice that Laz starts to suspect me immediately after I call him scum. I've seen this towntell a lot and it only works for newer players or players I know so well that scumreading them when they are town is actually a scumtell, but it's been damn reliable until and I have no reason to believe that it's not going to be damn reliable again. I also have some other reasons for finding Stubb town if interested, but I'm pretty confident in this townread and it *shouldn't* matter if incorrect, but if it does, then Stubbs is town and please please please don't fucking lynch him.

So what happened to this?

It's Day 6 and I'm getting tired of seeing people flip town so I want you to hold me and tell me that everything is OK and you are still town. Can you do that?

5.

In post 845, Nachomamma8 wrote:It's Day 6 and I'm getting tired of seeing people flip town so I want you to hold me and tell me that everything is OK and you are still town. Can you do that?

Well I can tell you I'm still town, sure. I can say whatever I want though, so I don't see how this is helping you.

In post 847, StubbsKVM wrote:

In post 845, Nachomamma8 wrote:It's Day 6 and I'm getting tired of seeing people flip town so I want you to hold me and tell me that everything is OK and you are still town. Can you do that?

Well I can tell you I'm still town, sure. I can say whatever I want though, so I don't see how this is helping you.

Why do you think my case on Flay town is wrong?

In post 752, Nachomamma8 wrote:

In post 174, Antagon wrote:So, reads.
TOWN:
Gen_Wolf

In the end, I don't think this is a likely-Antagon scum move. My personal rules for listing are that newscum are most likely to have at least one buddy in null/null leaning listing, bus heavy scum are most likely to have at least one buddy in scum listing, protective scum are most likely to have at least one buddy in town listing. Idea behind newscum is that they don't want to leave obvious connections to their partners so they don't want to single them out with such an obvious connection, which is pretty much exactly what Antagon did to Gen Wolf here. Don't think he would fuck over his partner as he was going down this way since he showed at least a little respect for his partner by attempting to root out a PR before he went down.

Well, Antagon is not newscum. He's joined november 2012. I don't have any experience with him before, so anything he would do or wouldn't do is a big question mark for me.

In post 54, Gen_Wolf wrote:Thank you, finally someone appreciating my post.

In the midst of a bunch of people attacking you, it seems unnatural for scum to immediately begin buddying someone who finally takes their side a bit. As scum, it means that you did something right in that person's eyes and you don't really want to do anything to fuck it up, so it ended up coming across as more of a "thank you for showing that my side has validity" more than anything else.[/quote]
Cornered as he was, Gen Wolf could have reached out like this, so he could get some help getting out of the situation he was in. This is not alignment indicative to me.

In post 415, Gen_Wolf wrote:You oaks are so far off who scum actually are they just not killing because your doing the work for them.

This comes from such an extremely paranoid place that I seriously doubt it could be coming from scum.[/quote]
Not really. This thought process was initially why I reconsidered my read on Generic. It proved to be false.

In post 428, Gen_Wolf wrote:Honestly, I obviously want town to win. However, if it came to it and after some discussion people are unsure I would rather have them lynch me than potentially expose a PR or what not. I'll take a bullet for the team in that regard but I just encourage everyone to use the time we have.

This is also really, really town and not the type of post that I think scum-Gen is capable of faking.[/quote]
Or it could be a last attempt to shift our opinion on him.


On a more general note for Flay's play, play between here and what we're seeing now seems very different.

Scumflay wrote:I would still like for someone to explain how I'm being 'inconsistent'. I'm seeing a lot of bare claims designed to delegitimize me, but nothing actually provable.

Mysteryflay wrote:I'm on my phone right now so no big post, but I am at L-1 is that right? Somebody better have a GOOD case...

Mysteryflay wrote:My predecessor definitely had some dumb things to say (including not wanting to lynch Antagon), so if I still look like a good lynch by the end of the Day, so be it.

From my limited understanding of Flay as scum, he takes an aggressive stance towards people who suspect him, which is something he started out with upon replacing in (suggesting playstyle), but then dropped it immediately after reading the game. I don't think that scumFlay is the type of player to posture for the "oh just kill me if my predecessor was too scummy"; he wouldn't bring that up in the first place, would try to get his foot in the door with the analysis posts he made and defend Gen as scummy but still town.

His suspicions as scum are also not really fleshed out so well; he tends to control rhetoric as opposed to actually try to sort people out. He's hoppy, he's opportunistic, he's pretty much a classic scum player in that respect. But certain things lately have seen extremely genuine, in a way that scumFlay can't (or didn't) replicate in that previous game; he didn't focus on lurkers for lurking, he focused on making people who should be centers of attention, and the latest "I will not hammer Generic" would require himscum refusing to hammer a townie when as scum he has pretty much every reason to.

Overall, I might be giving Gen Wolf too much credit and underestimating Flay-scum, but the slot seems town town town to me and I have serious difficulty imagining them flipping scum.[/quote]

I have no previous experience with Flay. And I'll admit that his play has been pretty good. But I fear that he is just an excellent player and has the ability to come back from the position he was in.

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So basically, from all of the arguments you made, there isn't one that makes me think that he is 100% town.
Sure, it's possible. But I still doubt it.

Karnage/Miss Stranger has been a strong townread throughout this entire game. And then all there's left is me and you.

So for me, choosing between Flay and Karnage is still easy. Unless there's something huge I'm missing in my Karnage read?