Mini 306: Arrested Development: Game over


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Post Post #825 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:28 pm

Post by chaotic_diablo »

Well... breaks over...

Possibilities:
1. Lynching Y
a. Y is innocent. If Pablito is town, he must block scum or town loses. If he manages to block right, then PBug must choose al_ko. If PBug is alive, he's scum. His death would mean al_ko=scum.
b. Y is guilty. PBug must choose al_ko. same as above, PBug's status determines who's scum.

2. Lynching PBug
a. PBug is innocent. Pablito must block correctly, Y or al_ko is automatically scum.
b. PBug is guilty. No result other than the NK.

3. Lynch Pablito
a. Innocent, town loses no matter what
b. guilty, PBug is automatically guilty.

4. Lynch Spectrum
a. Innocent, Pablito must block correctly if he is town. PBug will choose either al_ko or Y. etc
b. Guilty, Pbug is also guilty

5. Lynch chaotic_diablo
a. innocent, Pablito must block correctly if he's town, same as above
b. Guilty, PBug is guilty and al_ko is questionable

6. Lynch al_ko
a. Innocent, same as above
b. Guilty, Pbug targets Y, if PBug is alive, he's scum.

Organization sucks, so correct me if I'm wrong in anything. If you have questions, ask away.
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Post Post #826 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:05 pm

Post by spectrumvoid »

chaotic_diablo wrote: a. Y is innocent. If Pablito is town, he must block scum or town loses. If he manages to block right, then PBug must choose al_ko. If PBug is alive, he's scum. His death would mean al_ko=scum.
b. Y is guilty. PBug must choose al_ko. same as above, PBug's status determines who's scum.
Yup, 1 question. Are al_ko and Y the only ones PBug hasn't hidden behind?

I think selfish behaviour is 'scummy'. Either PBug spoilt our entire plan by not confirming Y's and his role depending on whether he was dead or alive, or he was being selfish. At this point, I don't see much difference between Y and PBug's scumminess, and for that reason my vote stays. Unless someone shows me why Y is really scummy.
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Post Post #827 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:07 pm

Post by Y »

It seems right.

I'm pretty sure PBuG' scum. Why?
The town had a plan and he decided not to go thru with it, although everybody else did.

Why wouldn't he follow the plan?
The plan would have gotten him in trouble no matter what. Choosing me, assuming his role isn't made up, means he either confirms me, or finds me scum. This would be grate for the town. Trading one townie for a mafia is a good deal for the town (Esp. in such a close match). Such selfishness is bad by itself.
But, we have another thing:
Lets assume he wakes up alive. He clears a suspicious townie. Good for the town.

No matter what, "hiding" behind me is a really good choice (Even better if I'm scum, which is the possibility he used as an excuse
not
to choose me). And he chose not to.

Why would a townie choose not to do something so beneficial for the town?

From this point on, everything is speculation (Except for me and the mafia):

I'm town. PBuG would wake up living and kicking no matter what.
It means one of two things: I'm town or he's lying. Neither is good for the scum.

You can all do the math.
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Post Post #828 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:43 pm

Post by spectrumvoid »

I just remembered this:
Kain wrote:True "alphabet" does not most defeinately point at Y but it is the best conclusion I can come to a this point. I am willing to hear other options- perhaps it points at a role and not at a person playing in the game. I dont know.

"Well well this was an interesting night! Had a very interesting piece of info come my way from the cop. I going to reveal my role- In my PM it said something along the lines of In the event of the death of the cop( had no idea who it was until after she died) if this happens in the night then the cop before leaving would pass some sort of clue to me. I guess this is cause cops and attorneys sometimes have a close relationship. She choose to give me a clue on last night's investigation and it was " ALPHABET." Im guessing the mod created a vague answer for everyone. Perhaps walking for me, animal for zufaul,dancing for c_D etc. something vague but something to work with." .
Did anything come up later to disprove this? Since Kain was the SK was what he said true? I joined this game so I just scanned through and I saved the posts I thought would help.

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Post Post #829 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:56 pm

Post by Y »

It's very improbable that any of that is right. Kain invented himself a name and had to give us a role. I'm pretty sure it's made up.
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Post Post #830 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2006 11:26 pm

Post by pablito »

PBuG wrote:I am Buster. I am basically a hider. I am hiding because I discovered my mother had evil intentions and I no longer felt safe. Night 1, I hid behind Mariyta. Night 2, I hid behind pablito. So, I know that pablito is town, because if a hider hides with scum, they are killed. Of course, it is possible I just can't hide behind my mother, but I doubt it.
Looked back at your claim. How do you know that Lucille (the mother) is evil? That conveys some extra information. I see us not losing any sleep over lynching PBuG today. His claim has always been flimsy but lasting this long as a hider without dying is a bit proposterous. What I don't get is why PBuG has stopped the search for Lucille. I would think that if PBuG really knows that a Lucille is out there - then he would think me as Lucille because I supposedly have the most out-there character name.

PBuG has too many functions as a hider:
hider
suicidal cop (find scum and dies)
extra information - knows that Lucille exists

This role if it's real is way too powerful as I've said before and very unlikely considering the setup.

I think we lynch PBuG and then we test me with roleblocking next. Although I think that with me likely having prevented two NKs before (the last two nights), I think I've already proven myself but I can do so again.

vote: PBuG
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Post Post #831 (ISO) » Tue Jul 11, 2006 11:27 pm

Post by pablito »

PBuG wrote:I am Buster. I am basically a hider. I am hiding because I discovered my mother had evil intentions and I no longer felt safe. Night 1, I hid behind Mariyta. Night 2, I hid behind pablito. So, I know that pablito is town, because if a hider hides with scum, they are killed. Of course, it is possible I just can't hide behind my mother, but I doubt it.
Looked back at your claim. How do you know that Lucille (the mother) is evil? That conveys some extra information. I see us not losing any sleep over lynching PBuG today. His claim has always been flimsy but lasting this long as a hider without dying is a bit proposterous. What I don't get is why PBuG has stopped the search for Lucille. I would think that if PBuG really knows that a Lucille is out there - then he would think me as Lucille because I supposedly have the most out-there character name.

PBuG has too many functions as a hider:
hider
suicidal cop (find scum and dies)
extra information - knows that Lucille exists

This role if it's real is way too powerful as I've said before and very unlikely considering the setup.

I think we lynch PBuG and then we test me with roleblocking next. Although I think that with me likely having prevented two NKs before (the last two nights), I think I've already proven myself but I can do so again.

vote: PBuG
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Post Post #832 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 1:19 am

Post by Y »

Is there anybody that thinks PBuG's not scum (Except for himself, of course)?
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Post Post #833 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:01 am

Post by spectrumvoid »

I need more people to tell me why Kain was lying.
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Post Post #834 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:23 am

Post by chaotic_diablo »

Pablito, since you had already blocked Y before, why did you decide to block Y again? Do you really Y's role?
Y wrote:It's very improbable that any of that is right. Kain invented himself a name and had to give us a role. I'm pretty sure it's made up.
Even so, the possibility of it being plausible is still there. It makes no sense for the SK to risk his/her life on something that could also get him/herself lynched. My theory is that the clue was real and Mariyta did send it, but Kain decided to take advantage of it when he received it.
Spectrum wrote:Yup, 1 question. Are al_ko and Y the only ones PBug hasn't hidden behind?
Yes, PBug checked me night 0, Pablito or Mariyta during night 1-2, and you night 3. Since we have six players left, al_ko and Y are the only ones left.

I'm still making a decision on PBug. His role is strange and overall, his actions don't make much sense,
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Post Post #835 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:27 am

Post by Y »

Kain was Annyong. We were sure that Annyong, if existing, would be scum, so he lied and said that he's Bob.

Since he was claiming Bob, he had to make up a role based on his character. He didn't do it well, so we found flaws in his behaviour and lynched him. He was also very stressed by worrying of being caught, so he made some stupid mistakes.
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Post Post #836 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:31 am

Post by Y »

I just read c_d's post and a question raised: How can it be, statistically, that since the beginning of the game, PBuG checked almost everybody of us and almost no one of the ones killed by now?
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Post Post #837 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:38 am

Post by chaotic_diablo »

Y wrote:Kain was Annyong. We were sure that Annyong, if existing, would be scum, so he lied and said that he's Bob.

Since he was claiming Bob, he had to make up a role based on his character. He didn't do it well, so we found flaws in his behaviour and lynched him. He was also very stressed by worrying of being caught, so he made some stupid mistakes.
The problem is that Kain took the initiative. He supposively made up his role then decided to reveal it to us by himself? That shouldn't be SK play.
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Post Post #838 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:10 am

Post by PBuG »

Y wrote:I just read c_d's post and a question raised: How can it be, statistically, that since the beginning of the game, PBuG checked almost everybody of us and almost no one of the ones killed by now?
Just dumb luck that the only one I targetted who later died is Mariytaspode.
rolandofthewhite (5:40:28 PM): It would be weird living with Thesp. All the hookers murdered and skin lying around. :(
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Post Post #839 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:52 am

Post by Y »

Making all the right choices randomly seems very improbable. The few points you get by improbable=/=impossible are lost because of your "night choice".

Vote PBuG.
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Post Post #840 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:01 am

Post by PBuG »

Unvote; Vote: PBuG
Whatev. Congrats, scum.
rolandofthewhite (5:40:28 PM): It would be weird living with Thesp. All the hookers murdered and skin lying around. :(
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Post Post #841 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:12 am

Post by chaotic_diablo »

PBug, you have three votes. Your one away from a lynch. If you attempted to lynch yourself, then your off by a vote since spectrum already unvoted. So it's Y, Pablito, and you. If the rest of us make a post without voting, then it's more likely that the rest of us are not scum. Makes no sense for scum to just leave the oppurtunity open.
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Post Post #842 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:30 am

Post by PBuG »

I don't really care. I'm getting lynched. I know spectrum unvoted, and I'm waiting for someone to just go ahead and hammer me. I know it'll happen.
rolandofthewhite (5:40:28 PM): It would be weird living with Thesp. All the hookers murdered and skin lying around. :(
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Post Post #843 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:27 am

Post by pablito »

PBuG, you realize that if you're town and you get lynched we could possibly be at lynch and lose? Please defend yourself for the town's sake if you're pro-town.

Nonetheless, the defeatist mood makes me believe you're scum. At this point in the game, no pro-town player would've self-destructed like that. The only way I will believe that PBuG is not scum is if the mason pair were scum. But PBuG "confirmed" c_d, so I think we've confirmed the mason pair anyway. That leaves only spectrum, Y and me as possible choices. It's obvious we have a vig and no one else claimed it, so it's extremely likely spectrum is town. That leaves Y and me.

I feel that PBuG has to be scum, the thing about knowing Lucille just makes me feel awkward. I don't see how a pro-town player would be told that a certain character is evil. That would break the game so early.

Nonetheless,
unvote: PBuG
. We need more discussion since we're at a possible lynch and lose situation. And with PBuG self-voting, it's probably not the best thing to have a lynch minus one situation.
Sup, later.
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Post Post #844 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:51 am

Post by Y »

According to what pablito said:
If PBuG's town, he's not lying - Masons are cleared.
If PBuG's scum, he's not with the masons - Masons are cleared.
Happy us.

@ PBuG: If you didn't want to die for the town during the night, why would you suicide now and make the town lose?
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Post Post #845 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:38 pm

Post by PBuG »

I don't really have anything against me that can be defended. What people are saying is true, and I'm not gonna lie to save myself. I've made some bad decisions. You know if I'm lynched and I'm town, Y is scum.
rolandofthewhite (5:40:28 PM): It would be weird living with Thesp. All the hookers murdered and skin lying around. :(
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Post Post #846 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:44 pm

Post by chaotic_diablo »

Need more posting from spectrum.

I'll post more when we get more info. Most likely we will get to the point where we argue and argue until every point has been discussed. In the end, we will end up gambling.

PBug, how do you do that "I win" under your name?
"Miracles of Science" or "Freaks of Nature"?

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Post Post #847 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:32 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

CD wrote: 1. Lynching Y
a. Y is innocent. If Pablito is town, he must block scum or town loses. If he manages to block right, then PBug must choose al_ko. If PBug is alive, he's scum. His death would mean al_ko=scum.
b. Y is guilty. PBug must choose al_ko. same as above, PBug's status determines who's scum.

2. Lynching PBug
a. PBug is innocent. Pablito must block correctly, Y or al_ko is automatically scum.
b. PBug is guilty. No result other than the NK.

3. Lynch Pablito
a. Innocent, town loses no matter what
b. guilty, PBug is automatically guilty.

4. Lynch Spectrum
a. Innocent, Pablito must block correctly if he is town. PBug will choose either al_ko or Y. etc
b. Guilty, Pbug is also guilty
I believe at this point, the play is either on PBuG or Y.

If we lynch PBuG, then either
we get town, and we know Y is the last scum, or
we get scum, Y or Pab are scum, we'll have to figure that out.

If we lynch Y,
If he's town, we know PBuG is lying, and can lynch him as scum.
If he's scum, once again we'll have to find his partner.

Spectrum is pretty much cleared because the only dead player I could possibly see having been a vig is Commodore (Tobias) but he died night one and we had people get discredited after night one. The only other option I really see is two SKs which I find even more unlikely.

So that really does leave us with Y, PBuG, and Pab. I'm really hoping there's only one mafiate left, not two. (and sadly I couldn't do a better job on the lynch speculation than this, maybe I'll try again later when I'm awake.)
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Post Post #848 (ISO) » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:59 pm

Post by Y »

Going sentimental after logic failed isn't a good move. "I can't prove my innocence, so I'll make you feel guilty for trying to lynch me" doesn't work for me.

PBuG's the play for today.
PBuG wrote:You know if I'm lynched and I'm town, Y is scum.
I have no problem risking that. I, as opposed to you, have no problem trading myself for scum. Lots of "if"s, by the way...
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Post Post #849 (ISO) » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:10 am

Post by spectrumvoid »

I'm trying to think of a way to clear Pablito, but I couldn't think of anything. Any help?

PBug's defeatist attitude makes me wonder is there're 2 scum. What if PBug + Pab = scum partners?

PBug stop acitng like a matyr... Like oh well, I made a mistake + no one believes me so I should die for it. It spoils the game. At least make a cursory attempt to defend yourself. If you're town, we'll win if there's only 1 mafia. If you're scum, you deserve to be lynched.
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