Mini 454: Candy Mafia - Over, Who won?


Forum rules
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2010
Joined: April 1, 2006
Location: Freezer
Contact:

Post Post #825 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:58 pm

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Erg0 wrote:If I were scum I'd have known from the moment JDodge claimed that he was also scum. If we had two kills available at night then I could have forced a no lynch day 3, then two dead townies night 3 = game over. There are a million ways that we could won the game already under that setup.
I dunno. I don't know how that mafia is setup and what the conditions are and frankly I don't consider you to be the most reliable source of information on the matter. Whatever speculation I make will probably be wrong.
Erg0 wrote: On top of that, note how CTD and JDodge both tried to get me lynched yesterday after they couldn't recruit me. My innocence would have added credibility to JDodge's claim.
Given how spectacularly CTD bus'ed JDodge, I mean, really, that was world-class, award-winning bus'ing, it's not exactly to your credit that he tried to bus you, too.
Erg0 wrote:Seriously, you need to
look beyond the flavour
and see the actions of the players. Flavour does not equal truth in all cases, this is still a game of mafia under the candy names.
Looking at flavor AND especially your behavior, you need to be lynched.
[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2010
Joined: April 1, 2006
Location: Freezer
Contact:

Post Post #826 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:59 pm

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Erg0 wrote:
Toaster Strudel wrote:
Stewie wrote:I am a jawbreaker, townie.
Are you a NORMAL townie? Or does it say "townie?"
Would it help my case if I answered this question too?
No, because you are not a townie.
[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2010
Joined: April 1, 2006
Location: Freezer
Contact:

Post Post #827 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:03 pm

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Erg0 wrote:Scum fakeclaiming mason does not happen nearly as often as you'd think, because it involves exposing definite ties between two scum. If one of us had been NKed or lynched then the other one was certain to die. The downside is far greater than the upside.
Your "out" was to fake a failed recruitment. As I posted earlier, none of the scum obituaries had the word "recruiter" in them. And maybe in this game there was a trade off in the mafia setup that lead you two to believe that claiming mason was the lesser of two evils. Or maybe it was just JDodge's bad idea?
[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #828 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:05 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Ok, so build a case on my actions, independent of your assumptions of the setup. I think that you've started with an assumption based on flavour and worked backwards to build a set of rules that will fit your initial hypothesis. Try reading my posts under the assumption that I'm simply baffled and see if it still makes sense.

Since I have nothing much to lose at this point, I might as well try this: my role PM does not directly state that I'm a townie. Paraphrasing, it merely states that I have no night action and win with the town.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #829 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:07 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Toaster Strudel wrote:
Erg0 wrote:Scum fakeclaiming mason does not happen nearly as often as you'd think, because it involves exposing definite ties between two scum. If one of us had been NKed or lynched then the other one was certain to die. The downside is far greater than the upside.
Your "out" was to fake a failed recruitment. As I posted earlier, none of the scum obituaries had the word "recruiter" in them. And maybe in this game there was a trade off in the mafia setup that lead you two to believe that claiming mason was the lesser of two evils. Or maybe it was just JDodge's bad idea?
None of the scum obituaries had the word "finder" in them, either. It's not too much of a stretch to think that there were specific role details that weren't included. The JoaT obit didn't say what specifically powers he had, for instance.

You're starting to sound like JDodge with all these "maybes" in your conjecture on the setup.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2010
Joined: April 1, 2006
Location: Freezer
Contact:

Post Post #830 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:14 pm

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Erg0 wrote:Since I have nothing much to lose at this point, I might as well try this: my role PM does not directly state that I'm a townie. Paraphrasing, it merely states that I have no night action and win with the town.
That, my friend, is IMPOSSIBLE.

No way there is no mention of some kind of mechanic having to do with the BCS Mafia, finding each other, or other such important matter.

You are lying.

LAL.

confirm vote: Erg0
[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #831 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:23 pm

Post by Erg0 »

So everybody but me knew that BCS=mafia? I doubt that very much.

I still want to know what it is that Stewie had in his PM.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #832 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:28 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Also, given that you're apparently not a vanilla townie, I'd like to know how you supposedly know what's in the townie PM. If you're saying that I must have something else in my PM because I'm BCS mafia then you're making a circular argument, which means nothing.

Secondly,
stop selectively answering my posts
. Are you willing to re-read with your mind clear of assumptions? If not, don't bother answering any more of my questions. I let this slide when you were doing it with JDodge yesterday because I thought the result would be good, but we're in a situation now where it
will
cost us the game.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #833 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:45 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Sorry for triple post.

If there's one question I want you to answer it's this one:
Erg0 wrote:If I were scum I'd have known from the moment JDodge claimed that he was also scum. If we had two kills available at night then I could have forced a no lynch day 3, then two dead townies night 3 = game over. There are a million ways that we could won the game already under that setup.
The biggest problem with your theory is that it relies on JDodge and I being too dumb to figure out an obvious winning tactic. Three living mafia would have controlled the vote for the rest of the game, meaning that there was no way for the town to win unless the mafia lynched one of their own. If I was actual full-fledged scum and was just looking for my buddies then JDodge and CTD could have claimed scum at the start of the day yesterday because there would be zero risk of any of us being lynched or NKed from that point forward.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2010
Joined: April 1, 2006
Location: Freezer
Contact:

Post Post #834 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 5:08 pm

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Erg0 wrote:The biggest problem with your theory...
It's just ONE theory. There could be a million explanations. Whatever I guess, I will probably guess wrong.

What I do know, and don't need to speculate about, is that you are lying about your PM.
[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #835 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 5:09 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Then I ask again: How would you know that?
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #836 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 5:12 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Also, the basis of all of your theories, and the only reason you should have for pushing my lynch, is that I am scum. My response above covers all scenarios in which I am actually scum with JDodge (even if we didn't know each other at the start of the game). The only possibilities it doesn't cover are that I'm scum without a nightkill or not scum at all. If either of the last two is true then I'm no threat to the town.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Stewie
Stewie
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Stewie
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2567
Joined: July 16, 2003
Location: Canada
Contact:

Post Post #837 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 7:17 pm

Post by Stewie »

Toaster Strudel wrote: Are you a NORMAL townie? Or does it say "townie?"
What do you mean?
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #838 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 1:52 am

Post by Erg0 »

Ok, since it seems that Stewie is not going to drop the hammer at this point I have time to do a summary. I'd like every player to respond to all of these points.

FACT: I am not mafia with a nightkill. If I was, I could have refused to vote for JDodge yesterday and we would have won the game by NKing townies and no-lynching (since there was no possibility of an SK cross kill). I wouldn't have known that there was a third scum, but CTD and JDodge would have. CTD bussed JDodge, which indicates that he had more to gain by looking clean than he did by keeping JDodge alive. This would not have been the case if I were fully fledged scum.

FACT: Since I am not mafia with a nightkill, I am one of two things - mafia without a nightkill or a vanilla townie. In either of these scenarios we still have an SK at large. If I am mafia without a nightkill I cannot win the game no matter what happens, as I have no means to endgame townies. If I am a townie then I win with the rest of you (except the SK). Either way, if you lynch me today then the town almost certainly loses.

FACT: Something happened last night to prevent CTD from killing. This means that one of TS, mneme and Stewie is lying in their roleclaim, or one of us (including me as a possibility) has an ability that they are not aware of. I can't think of any reason for CTD to no-kill at such an important stage of the game. He's been active on the site for the last few days, so it is highly unlikely that he didn't send in his choice.

Some more stuff coming up, but this will do for starters.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2010
Joined: April 1, 2006
Location: Freezer
Contact:

Post Post #839 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:05 am

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Erg0 wrote:Then I ask again: How would you know that?
All along the game, you initiated and pushed discussion about how the scum didn't know each other and how there were two scum groups.

There was something in your role PM that stated something to the effect that the mafia members didn't know each other... in particular... the BCS candies.
[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2010
Joined: April 1, 2006
Location: Freezer
Contact:

Post Post #840 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:06 am

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Stewie,

Please drop the hammer on Erg0.
[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #841 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:16 am

Post by Erg0 »

Ok, here we go with points against me and my own counter-points.

POINT: My flavour matches that of the scum (chewy, brown sweet)
COUNTER-POINT: This would be true whether I were scum or a recruitable townie. This does not prove my alignment, only that I have some relationship to the mafia.

POINT: JDodge's role was Godfather, not Recruiter. CTD's role was Goon, not recruiter.
COUNTER-POINT: Revealed roles do not contain a list of abilities. For example, "Jack of all Trades" does not describe abilities, merely the role name. JDodge's role also does not contain any indication that he is searching for existing mafia, which TS claims to be true.

POINT: I claimed BCS on day 2 to confirm myself to JDodge.
COUNTER-POINT: By claiming BCS I both linked myself to JDodge and prevented his immediate lynch. It was clearly obvious to me at the time that there would be a great deal of suspicion on both of us from that point forward due to the link - after all, JDodge only claimed because he was on the verge of being lynched for scummy behaviour. Scum do not out themselves to save another scum that is already under heavy suspicion. It was very likely that one of us would be lynched at some point to test our alignment, and the other would surely follow.

POINT: I was the first to mention multiple scum groups, showing that I had special knowledge.
COUNTER-POINT: This was a matter of logical deduction on my part, attempting to find an explanation for te fact that I wasn't recruited. Note that I said this in the context of speculating that there were two groups competing to recruit me, not that there was one scum group looking for another. This could equally be explained as perceptiveness on my part, though I was not entirely correct in my conclusion.

POINT: My role PM must contain some mention of the BCS mafia or finding each other.
COUNTER-POINT: This seems to be based on the assumption that I'm mafia, making this a circular argument. I see no reason why a townie would have any mention of these things in their PM, and if other townies knew about the BCS mafia then JDodge would have been lynched as soon as he claimed.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #842 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:22 am

Post by Erg0 »

Toaster Strudel wrote:
Erg0 wrote:Then I ask again: How would you know that?
All along the game, you initiated and pushed discussion about how the scum didn't know each other and how there were two scum groups.

There was something in your role PM that stated something to the effect that the mafia members didn't know each other... in particular... the BCS candies.
Did you consider the possibility that I just
figured it out
?

Look at the post where I raised this idea:
Erg0 wrote:You know what I think? I think that there are either two scum groups, each with a recruiter, or there's a town recruiter and a scum recruiter. Both tried to recruit me last night, hence nothing happened.

Having said that, if there were two scum recruiters then I would think that the other scum group would have killed JDodge last night so that they could recruit me tonight, which would virtually guarantee them a win. Actually, the same would apply if JDodge were a mason recruiter, so he most likely would have been NKed then too.

I doubt that JDodge completely fabricated his claim - the fact that there was only one person eligible to be recruited is just too much of a coincidence. Having said that, the signs point towards him being a scum recruiter rather than a mason recruiter in my eyes.

This might be a good time for anyone else who is looking for chewy brown sweet candies to put their hand up.
Does that read like someone who knows what's going on? The reason I raised the possibility is that I wasn't recruited the previous night. JDodge said that there were multiple people looking for BCS candies.
The logical conclusion was that one or both of these people was scum.


It's not rocket science, I just figured it out based on available information.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #843 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:26 am

Post by Erg0 »

Actually I lie, this was the first post where I mentioned the idea, shortly before the post above. The reason I initially came up with the idea was that we had six players left but the game was still going. This ruled out the possibility of there being three mafiates, so the only two possible scenarios were two scum plus an SK or two groups of two scum. I'm not sure what advantage you think I'd gain by raising this out of nowhere if I knew it to be true (though it actually isn't true - we clearly don't have two competing scumgroups).
Erg0 wrote:Okay then.

We're still going, so my guess is that we have either two scum and an SK or two groups of two scum. I'm leaning towards the former - I would guess that the scum killed the rolecop and the SK killed the tracker last night. I can't see why a vig would have targeted either of the dead people once we confirmed Nekka as being what they said he was.

I'm sure many of you are curious about what happened with JDodge's recruiting efforts last night. The answer:

Not a damn thing.

So much for that roleclaim - JDodge, explain?
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2010
Joined: April 1, 2006
Location: Freezer
Contact:

Post Post #844 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:27 am

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Here's the deal.

We all claimed "town-aligned." At least one of us is lying. Maybe all four of us are lying.

Erg0 - Tootsie Roll,
brown, chewy and sweet
.
Stewie - Jawbreakers,
round, rainbow, sugar-coated
.
Mneme - Skittles,
round, rainbow, sugar-coated
.
Toaster Strudel - English Mints,
round, white, minty
.

Stewie and mneme know that they are on the same side. I am sure they realize that. Maybe they found each other at night, maybe they didn't, who knows? One thing is certain, they didn't try to find you, or try to find me, so now they wonder which one of us two they should lynch in order to win the game.

I've figured it all out. I am voting for Erg0. Not only that, but you can safely assume that I will not change my vote for mneme or Stewie. I am voting for Erg0, and that's final.

Mneme has figured it all out. Mneme is voting for Erg0.

Stewie... Stewie is still strying to figure it out.

What is the alternative to lynching Erg0? Lynching me? If I were to be lynched, and that's not going to happen, Erg0 will be alone against two round, rainbow, sugar-coated mafiates, Erg0 will be night killed, and the round, rainbow, sugar-coated mafia will win. Even if there is no lynch today... Erg0 will be nightkilled, and the round, rainbow, surgar-coated mafia will win. This, I can guarantee.

Tonight, today, doesn't matter. The round rainbow sugar-coated mafia has won this game. We're all waiting on Stewie to seal the deal.
[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #845 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:28 am

Post by Erg0 »

Toaster Strudel wrote:
Erg0 wrote:Then I ask again: How would you know that?
All along the game, you initiated and pushed discussion about how the scum didn't know each other and how there were two scum groups.

There was something in your role PM that stated something to the effect that the mafia members didn't know each other... in particular... the BCS candies.
Actually, I'll also point out a factual inaccuracy: I did not push this idea "all along the game". I only raised it after I wasn't recruited, at which point I had enough information to figure out for myself that it was a possibility.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #846 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:33 am

Post by Erg0 »

You're giving up too easily. I am not mafia. If Stewie and mneme are a mafia group then they haven't found each other and haven't satisfied their win condition, despite the fact that they now comprise half of the town.

Refusing to vote for mneme or Stewie is ridiculous. If we lynch one of them we at least have a chance. If you lynch me we have no chance, no matter which way you cut it.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #847 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:35 am

Post by Erg0 »

Vote: mneme


Stewie had two chances to hammer, and he would have won the game if what TS says is true. mneme's gotta be the last living scumbag.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Erg0
Erg0
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Erg0
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4157
Joined: February 25, 2007
Location: Secret Aussie.

Post Post #848 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:37 am

Post by Erg0 »

Quad-post: Nerds are round, rainbow and sugar-coated aren't they? How do explain Qman being a tracker?
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Toaster Strudel
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2010
Joined: April 1, 2006
Location: Freezer
Contact:

Post Post #849 (ISO) » Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:41 am

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Erg0 wrote:If we lynch one of them we at least have a chance.
Erg0, you and I, are not a "we."

They will not vote each other. I will not vote them. I absolutely refuse to vote for mneme or Stewie. There is ZERO chance of that happening.

BTW, Nerds are solid sugar. Jawbreakers have gum inside, that is sugar coated. Skittles have gummy stuff inside, that is sugar coated.
[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]
Locked