Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[Lunar Martian]

@unwnd

last column is cop , mason, or jk

what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation

And I'd have to do all this in 4 minutes.

Don't really care for Battle Mage's first post there.

uh...how so?

Your post just rubbed me the wrong way. Are you getting caught up? Do you have any thoughts to share with the class?

[safebet222]

I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.

@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?

Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.

Last time I checked there were two scum... how is it possible to see everyone else but me as town? Something is wrong with your reads, there.

Sorry fixed my post.

I also think quiet is Mafia.

So how do you figure quiet and I are scum together? I wanted him over Norfolk at the end of the day yesterday.

[Battle Mage]

@unwnd

last column is cop , mason, or jk

what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation

And I'd have to do all this in 4 minutes.

Don't really care for Battle Mage's first post there.

uh...how so?

Your post just rubbed me the wrong way. Are you getting caught up? Do you have any thoughts to share with the class?

I have started reading, planning to finish reading everything on New Years Day as I'm working tomorrow.

I think reading anything into my opening post is a stretch. I'm sure I could have posted the same as scum.

[quiet]

Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia.

Maybe I give peta too much credit, but honestly, I put that well within peta’s scum range. I read them as pro town, but I’m still searching for exactly how I’m going to tell the difference between pro town as good scum, or pro town as good town. Clearly I’m not the only person giving peta this kind of respect-look back at BBs posts in particular and the lengths they were willing to go to try and sort peta.

Unwnd had been a lot more circumspect about their contributions (of late, understandable given real life constraints, but even early on, it was a kind of playstyle they adopted). Safebet had been somewhat busy too, but engages more directly than unwnd when involved.

Starting to think that I, like Lunar, am a decently large liability for town. Mikul votes me infinitely, townLunar does the same pretty much and is never dying, and at least one and often two of them are town. Problem is, I don’t think knowing that yesterday’s final wagons were town-town gives all that much info. I know that every one of yesterday’s wagons besides Illwei and possibly Lunar are town, and I can’t seem to do much with that.

In other news, I think I’ve decided to never read into any opening posts as a fundamental rule. Just not worth it.

[quiet]

I hate the threat... its almost like you're baiting us to go there. Eliminating a perfectly plausible scenario and just throwing up your hands that you'll take the "L" if it is the case is not very town friendly. I get the point of view of not wanting to push there today... but you have to at least consider it at some point if he doesn't die, right?

This is basically my exact fear. Don’t think Lunar ever dies. Don’t think I ever die.

I don’t think it’s bait, but I agree that Lunar needs to be in consideration in future days. Next time we have this conversation, there’s going to be less town around, and if Lunar is scum, then Mikul is def also going to be around.

[quiet]

To clarify, don’t think we ever get shot at night, not that we don’t ever get voted.

[Battle Mage]

unwnd + safebet

or

quiet + petapan

my psychic hero pre-read solves.

[quiet]

unwnd + safebet

Well, I townread Illwei into infinity, and I’m in the other pair, so I’m all aboard this train pls and thank you

[Mikul]

@safebet , it's possible I would consider but very very unlikely. There are no results so the way in which he claimed and everything around it won't change. Barring a scum slip or something extra ordinary I can't see myself changing. Just to much had to happen during that pressure for him to be able to identify and claim doc as scum. It's possible. I just don't see it

[safebet222]

unwnd + safebet

or

quiet + petapan

my psychic hero pre-read solves.

That means its probably exactly BM and mikul... lol.

[safebet222]

@safebet , it's possible I would consider but very very unlikely. There are no results so the way in which he claimed and everything around it won't change. Barring a scum slip or something extra ordinary I can't see myself changing. Just to much had to happen during that pressure for him to be able to identify and claim doc as scum. It's possible. I just don't see it

Eh... I don't want to argue about this anymore... we'll see how things shake out. But in the unlikely event we end up flipping him and he flips red, you're next on the chopping block.

[safebet222]

@ peta

Okay I feel like this has to be discussed as it is required to explain what I'm thinking.

1) he's vanilla baiting
2) he's claiming a PR to get out of pressure

What is relevant is the fact mafia star the game knowing what collum we start in but not what row. If he's scum he has an idea of what is safe / not safe to claim. By the time town has figured that out , he's bought himself a lot of time and can go 1 on 1 with another pr

Why I think it's relevant to force a claim. He implied thinks there is a doctor. Only can be cop or tracker. I want him to claim because let's say there is a mason. We know he's lying.

I feel like any ringer would pick up on this. So there is no reason not to force a hard claim even if he is town because he's already heavily narrowed down the claim.

I lied. You practically gave scum the play ages before we forced Lunar to claim. The fake claim is definitely in play and you're scummy for changing your reasoning on it. The tunnel on quiet is not good either. I think he town told at the beginning of today.

VOTE: mikul

[unwnd]

BM would like to see a bit more from you eventually before I decide where I'm headed

[petapan]

i was about to talk myself into a case on safebet but his last post has thrown me into disarray

[petapan]

i guess i'll have to discuss my concerns anyway tomorrow but not in as much detail as i'd planned because it's worth going over

[quiet]

If I’m right about things a night kill on me is likely to fail but I welcome it and why I’m pretty okay claiming early

Huh. This was posted right after BBs soft claim of “hard claim I’m probably a PR”

Mikul did ping it out then.

But they’ve been so earnest in their hunt of me.

Also, re-reading some of the posts around then make me feel a lot better about peta, especially the reaction to the soft claim, and generally the engagement they’ve been showing. I think I like Unwnd’s read in that regard.

[quiet]

Disarray because you thought {safe, mikul} likely partners? Or for another reason.

Also, town peta gets shot often tonight. A little note before the end of the day would be nice, just in case.

[petapan]

i just thought he was scummy but 836 looks like a very towny post

[petapan]

wasn't anything to do with potential team thinking

[Mikul]

If I gave scum the play ages before it happened , why would I say it as scum and not just do it. I went on a 5 page vent about it I have not changed my reasoning in the slightest. During the posting I was trying to make sure bb wasn't just yolo claiming to stay alive for a few days and take a 1v1. Cop was a really easy thing to claim when everyone was looking at him (if he were scum). In my mind it could have been a Yolo claim since he was getting lynched to force a cc or a very accurate guess about what role is not in the game. The reason I wanted to try and get prs to claim at that point was if there was , let's say a mason. We knew bb was lying.

With BB as cop. It makes since to me that we are in the first collum. Regardless of my reasoning and posting what I thought bb was. It's just as likely he was fake claiming, or vanilla trying to bait a nk. For lunar to be scum. He has to be 100 percent sure bb is telling the truth that he is a pr , and what pr he is to be able to safely identify doc as a claim.

So no. Im still not going for lunar.

[Mikul]

Even more so , after quiets posting. I still don't buy this as his first game. As he continues to post , the more I'm biting down on that read and I really doubt I'm moving.

Quiet has went through a variety of cycles that I have tried to explain in as much detail as possible

1) he's tried to sympathy fish at the start of the game
2) he's said he's totally new and his familiarity terminology and understanding of game concepts , says otherwise
3) he was not posting and lurking until I started focusing him.
4) then he was really defensive and starting posting a ton

Everything about quiet pegs me as scum and it actually tilts me , no one else is on board with pushing him.

[Lunar Martian]

Even more so , after quiets posting. I still don't buy this as his first game. As he continues to post , the more I'm biting down on that read and I really doubt I'm moving.

Quiet has went through a variety of cycles that I have tried to explain in as much detail as possible

1) he's tried to sympathy fish at the start of the game
2) he's said he's totally new and his familiarity terminology and understanding of game concepts , says otherwise
3) he was not posting and lurking until I started focusing him.
4) then he was really defensive and starting posting a ton

Everything about quiet pegs me as scum and it actually tilts me , no one else is on board with pushing him.

I'm still very much on board.
VOTE: quiet

[safebet222]

@ peta

Okay I feel like this has to be discussed as it is required to explain what I'm thinking.

1) he's vanilla baiting
2) he's claiming a PR to get out of pressure

What is relevant is the fact mafia star the game knowing what collum we start in but not what row.

If he's scum he has an idea of what is safe / not safe to claim.

By the time town has figured that out , he's bought himself a lot of time and can go 1 on 1 with another pr

Why I think it's relevant to force a claim. He implied thinks there is a doctor. Only can be cop or tracker. I want him to claim because let's say there is a mason. We know he's lying.

I feel like any ringer would pick up on this. So there is no reason not to force a hard claim even if he is town

because he's already heavily narrowed down the claim.

With BB as cop. It makes since to me that we are in the first collum. Regardless of my reasoning and posting what I thought bb was. It's just as likely he was fake claiming, or vanilla trying to bait a nk. For lunar to be scum.

He has to be 100 percent sure bb is telling the truth that he is a pr , and what pr he is to be able to safely identify doc as a claim.

The underlined lay out pretty well what the change in your reasoning is. Yesterday you claimed that a scum!BB would be safe to claim or not claim based on his informed position but you're not willing to allow that same possibility for a scum!Lunar today.

[fferyllt]

and...

[fferyllt]

allez