i have some reasons for voting midway but I’m hesitant to completely delineate them rn I want to see more and I do have my midway doubts
also this game like started 30 hours ago or something so lol
pedit why is top of the draft a reason to scumread her
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:47 am
by midwaybear
In post 820, innocentvillager wrote:Midwaybear do you thjnk I should have you as town by now? or anyone familiar with you?
Probably? I don't think I call Datisi/nsg out as scum because I don't see that as scum. Everything else I could probably do as scum though Also, I think catboi's early tr on me was more luck (?), but he did correctly read me on early on in the last game we played.
Also, I don't think we've played in over a year so I don't think I am obv town anymore (I died during day last 2 town games).
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:47 am
by Mare
People higher up in draft more likely to be scum.
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:48 am
by Andante
In post 824, Something_Smart wrote:also it just hit me that Andante is top in the draft. That's another reason to scumread her, I guess.
You're just jealous cause you were bottom of the draft
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:48 am
by Something_Smart
There's a pretty clear correlation between being high in the draft and being scum in PYP games.
The reasons I can think of are (a) scum are less likely to collide in general because they will avoid colliding with each other, (b) based on (a) they are more likely to go for low numbers because it's safer, and (c) they are likely to put more calculation and thought into the draft than town.
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:49 am
by Something_Smart
In post 828, Andante wrote:You're just jealous cause you were bottom of the draft
I literally spent the entirety of the last PYP game I played correctly calling the top drafter scum
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:49 am
by innocentvillager
In post 827, Mare wrote:People higher up in draft more likely to be scum.
i mean maybe like very slightly because scum will never clash with each other but that’s only 2 numbers you’re guaranteed to not hit
also I don’t think this logic applies to the low doubles much either
idk how much I believe good draft position means non negligible increased scum equity
In post 828, Andante wrote:You're just jealous cause you were bottom of the draft
I literally spent the entirety of the last PYP game I played correctly calling the top drafter scum
Didn’t stop me from killing you. :^)
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:51 am
by innocentvillager
In post 829, Something_Smart wrote:There's a pretty clear correlation between being high in the draft and being scum in PYP games.
The reasons I can think of are (a) scum are less likely to collide in general because they will avoid colliding with each other, (b) based on (a) they are more likely to go for low numbers because it's safer, and (c) they are likely to put more calculation and thought into the draft than town.
interesting
how strong is this effect would you estimate empirically/sample size
In post 828, Andante wrote:You're just jealous cause you were bottom of the draft
I literally spent the entirety of the last PYP game I played correctly calling the top drafter scum
ahhh I see, so the plan is to just call me scum in hopes I flip scum, so that you can then go "I have a 100% success rate at catching scum based on draft order!" only issue with that plan is I'm not scum lol
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:52 am
by Mare
Scum want power roles and to deny town power roles, I said this before but the cost of wifom and picking a lower number sucks when every townie is a PR catching you because you picked something bad or rolled goon.
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 6:54 am
by Mare
Going through previous runs slowly on mobile, looks like the first two runs of this setup scum were in the top of draft. Lol.
I picked top last time as scum, etc.
Pretty sure it’s a stable pattern and to be expected that at least one will try to grab something good.