Simply put only my lynchpool wanted Aaron. The wagon composition was so bad, I almost vetoed Aaron.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:42 am
by Titus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:44 am
by Titus
I need to go to work.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:47 am
by Sherlock and Watson
In post 8194, Reasonably Rational wrote:Assuming this insanity results in our lunch, you’ll want to look very closely at OkaPoka and S&W. Oka has been pushing hard to make everyone claim today, despite being told repeatedly that we shouldn’t and Titus knows why. There’s not any town motive there but I can see scum being scared by our refusal to claim along with the fact that a pretty vague reference was enough for a Titus to realize ... because it’s strong and we’ve demonstrated the ability to leverage it in the past.
S&W isn’t developing an honest read on us. He’s starting with a destination in mind and then looking for anything he can manipulate to support it. If my post was really such blatant fearmongering, for example, he would have said so when I made it. It clearly didn’t come across that way when I made it because nobody commented. Scum have to approach getting mislynches exactly in the way S&W is behaving right now.
I wouldn’t discount TSE as scum here either. Bizarre tonal shifts and behavior shifts combined with pushing two theories which were never reasonable at all are bad looks from him. The pushes look a lot like setting up mislynch chains, especially now that we have a chemist flip plus we know we flip green AND we have pretty solid reasons to believe another JOAT style role is town as well.
The common thread with all three slots is very obvious scum motive for their approach. For S&W and TSE there is a pretty clear view of they are making up a story since they can’t legit game solve due to being informed, and you can see the fingerprints of that pretty clear if you step back and see the forest.
~D
I gotta go back inside for work.
As soon as he's pushed all the town becomes scum
This is scum posting why the fuck are you fighting this slot's death titus mfw
-S
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:48 am
by Sherlock and Watson
8194 might as well read "waaah waah waah i am scum"
I'm hitting a point where I realize I need a high value flip to proceed and I want to be sure I'm not missing something obvious first.
Hectic preferred
AF acceptable
TSE begrudgingly due to role and numbers management
SW and FL if desperate
Don't lynch anyone else.
Okay.
I realized this morning after my most recent list that:
A) no matter what angle I view the game from, there are 4 slots that aren't town to me.
B) Pine/AF always appear in those lists as possible scum.
C) I keep hitting the same names being town often enough to think its most likely because they're right. Therefore, odds of those two names having scum increases.
D) my overall reads have been shaky enough to not want to commit too heavily to this theory as an endgame option
E) despite this, lynching between those two would give me the highest value for a lynch regardless of flip.
And more over, I've finally hit a point where I feel like AF is independently scum outside of that.
I think AF is the best of both worlds but regardless of the flip, I think it could break the game open to be much easier to solve in later day phases.
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:50 am
by Titus
@S, That's a blatant misrep of the post. It's clear RR can't keep up. Hell he FoSed OkaPoka.
@Ank Ok. Go ahead. The Hectic wagon comp is looking worse anyway.
@S, You can get the AF you fought for now that town wants it.
I'd still like to know why you were scumreading me going into night please
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:52 am
by Sherlock and Watson
It's not a misrep his trajectory on me is very likely to come from scum flailing
-S
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:53 am
by Sherlock and Watson
Titus stop pushing people to lynch town while defending scum please thanks
-S
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:55 am
by Sherlock and Watson
In post 7166, Reasonably Rational wrote:Oka, fyi, I'm a guy who sits on a hard guilty for *at least* 5 RL days, ensures everyone has come and talked about shit, gently prodded the entire thread for reads etc, pushed a soft wagon on a null read, and only THEN do I actually share my hard guilty to end the day., after maximizing the extracted value.
-Cerb
pedit: Titus - Yeah, that's fair. Last scum pool depends entirely on whether or not e actually indicated their knowledge of Espe's role in any way prior to their claim. Hmm. Okay. So I'm actually thinking about this, and kinda running into some contradictory conclusions.
My first thought was that if e had hinted about the role previously, then the only reason to bring that up is to make people doubt the pool of clears, right? That also increases the scum equity of Espeonage. Mmm. Okay.
"Clears"
gobbledygook
Ankamius
OkaPoka
Weaker town evidence due to connection to "clears"
Hectic
So I see reasonable cause for scum equity in Pine and Espe, less so in S&W. I believe mechanically we should be removing Espe to create 3 "real" clears(assuming we have evidence of previous successful actions on these three slots, I'll need to review).
I think our best chance is to remove TSE, and assuming he flips town and is therefore not lying about being vengeful, he shoots either Pine or Espe; Pine shot is only necessary if we do not have evidence of previous successful actions on ank/oka/gobble, otherwise Espe shot makes more sense as that flip either ends the game or gives us 3 highly probtown. That leaves us with Pine, FL, and S&W, with S&W and FL tied for scum equity, and Pine as still improbable for the D1 claim.
TrueSoulEnergy>Espeonage/Pine>S&W/FL>Pine
This is all assuming that I'm right and AF flips scum of course. If he does not, shit get's messy.
I need to talk to Drixx to see if it's reasonable to locktown Espe; I don't think it is, but maybe he see's something I don't.
ppedit: Oh he's back, must bug.
-Cerb
In post 8194, Reasonably Rational wrote:Assuming this insanity results in our lunch, you’ll want to look very closely at OkaPoka and S&W. Oka has been pushing hard to make everyone claim today, despite being told repeatedly that we shouldn’t and Titus knows why. There’s not any town motive there but I can see scum being scared by our refusal to claim along with the fact that a pretty vague reference was enough for a Titus to realize ... because it’s strong and we’ve demonstrated the ability to leverage it in the past.
S&W isn’t developing an honest read on us. He’s starting with a destination in mind and then looking for anything he can manipulate to support it. If my post was really such blatant fearmongering, for example, he would have said so when I made it. It clearly didn’t come across that way when I made it because nobody commented. Scum have to approach getting mislynches exactly in the way S&W is behaving right now.
I wouldn’t discount TSE as scum here either. Bizarre tonal shifts and behavior shifts combined with pushing two theories which were never reasonable at all are bad looks from him. The pushes look a lot like setting up mislynch chains, especially now that we have a chemist flip plus we know we flip green AND we have pretty solid reasons to believe another JOAT style role is town as well.
The common thread with all three slots is very obvious scum motive for their approach. For S&W and TSE there is a pretty clear view of they are making up a story since they can’t legit game solve due to being informed, and you can see the fingerprints of that pretty clear if you step back and see the forest.
~D
I gotta go back inside for work.
B
Only thing different between these posts is me pushing him lol
-S
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:55 am
by Ankamius
... and who wrote it???
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:57 am
by Sherlock and Watson
Since when does drixx ignore a mech clear lol
He not only was the slot not scumreading oka they had him as clear
Unless drixx is straight ignoring cerb reads and that'd be weird too