Page 333 of 342
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:04 am
by Tohru
In post 7289, Formerfish wrote: In post 7287, Dannflor wrote: In post 6493, Formerfish wrote: In post 6478, Dannflor wrote: In post 6475, or wrote:say I flip town. then what? I don't think my flip unites town at all and will put it in more disarray.
In post 5093, DrDolittle wrote:
if we are going through a lynch order solve, my lynch definitely gives the most information so
hmm
I've never seen a current slot get lynched by their pred. I would 100% approve of this slot being hung (hanged?) now.
could you explain why these two posts I quoted made you get behind an or/DDL lynch?
Ok, so when I read that the first time around I didnt know that DDL and Or were the same person. I dont think that anyone would be expected to know that. I would normally assume that a replacement is a different person. SO with that in mind I had thought that DDL had admitted he was a good lynch informationally, then or replaced in and said the exact opposite. It was like a reverse amish defense where the pred was saying the lynch was ok and the new slot holder is the one who was acting like it was a crazy idea.
Knowing that they are the same person made it worse because he was the one who said it, then mysteriously contradicted himself later on.
I didn't know DDL was Or too until after he died, so you're not too slow on the take.
Rest in Peace Formerfish.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:10 am
by Tohru
Dann is town.
Reislot is town.
Enter is town.
Liger is town.
Gun to head, RC is town.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:14 am
by Tohru
In post 7471, Reiuji Utsuho wrote:To do list if FF flips town
- Lose all laughing points
- Force to join a mislynch on Liger
- Eat myself (am a crow)
- Expect a warm welcome post-game from dead townies
- Yet another day of suffering with no ignition
- Read another 300 Enter posts
Did I miss anything?
Tragic.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:17 am
by Tohru
In post 7522, Liger_Zero wrote:Quick post since I see we lynched scum (yay!)
To the last scum:
You have to make it to Day 9. Day 9. You need to survive 3 more grueling days. Scrape by and push other players outside yourself and the people you have doused and ensure the doused players aren't lynched because if those players get lynched well you are gonna have to survive even longer.
And even if you survive to Day 9. Even if you manage to have none of the people you doused get lynched. You have to mislynch in that spot to win the game.
I have two words for you:
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:20 am
by Tohru
Xtoxm and Max are town, probably. That means I have to use my Dragon powers again to save this game.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:24 am
by Tohru
In post 7652, Ankamius wrote:funny thing
my secret alts all get scumread for no reason more than my main
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:27 am
by Tohru
In post 7796, Enter wrote:It keeps coming back to haunt me
WHO USES THE NAME "OR?" AUGH!
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:29 am
by Tohru
In post 7858, Xtoxm wrote:That was some top trolling fish, well played! You really had me going when you started spamming YouTube vids.
Lmao at those crybabies replacing over a bit of twilight trolling. Probably all town.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:31 am
by Tohru
In post 7859, Xtoxm wrote:Tohru replaced locktown creature, congrats. Solve the game and I'll sheep you. Back on Friday.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:32 am
by Ankamius
Look at catloaves and tell me
Shrug
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:32 am
by Ankamius
I almost got lynched d1 as alacrity that game
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:35 am
by Tohru
First of all, summary:
Tohru
Liger (Psyche)
Enter (Akarin)
Reiuji (Saudade)
RC
Dannflorr
Max
Ankamius
Xtoxm
Vedith
Jingle
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:36 am
by Tohru
I think I need to revisit Ankamius
I think Vedith/Jingle are the scum here. If I'm wrong on Vedith then it's Xtoxm. But Jingle needs to go.
VOTE: Jingle
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:38 am
by Tohru
Ank is town.
Going to ISO Vedith & Jingle to reconfirm.
Then, going to relook at the mechanics of this game.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:41 am
by Tohru
Relooked at Xtoxm. Think he's town.
Though, Xtoxm, as an objective third party observer, I think you played better (townier) in Topaz :/
Oh well.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:45 am
by Tohru
Okay, so I don't think any of my reads change. Hard to change them after 300 pages. Game should be functionally solved. If not, tough luck.
Going to look at the douse mechanics and do a bit of math.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:50 am
by Tohru
Today is Day 7.
There have been 6 douse actions taken so far.
And 11 players are alive. With 2 scum.
If all 6 doused players are alive, and we mislynch on a non-doused player,
it's 10 players alive, and ignite brings us to 2:2.
If 6 doused players are alive, and we mislynch on a doused player,
It's 10 players alive, and ignite brings us to 3:2. They can't ignite for the win.
If 6 doused players are alive, and we lynch scum,
It's 10 alive, ignite brings us to 3:1. Literally worse for scum.
Therefore our benefit from lynching is actually:
Scum > Doused Townie Mislynch > Undoused Townie mislynch.
That's assuming the worst case scenario of 6 doused players alive, which may not necessarily be the case.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:56 am
by Tohru
Yeah, I strongly doubt Jingle wouldn't be doused early game if he was Town here. Jingle and RC would likely be the earliest to be doused. Especially if scum did not know Prince of Renais was RC.
That's another way of putting "We probably don't lose the game if Jingle turns out to be a mislynch."
I think Dannflor/Xtoxm/Max are the three mislynch bait/low hanging fruit right now because of their inability to project town as strongly as other top players. I would be sad if they were scum, but I believe that none of them are scum. Pretty risky bet to take, since "having 1 scum in a pool of 3" is actually pretty high odds, but I'm a Dragon.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:59 am
by Tohru
Sorry Jingle if you're town here. but I
must
clear the PoE at this stage of the game, and it's likely you're doused in my opinion, meaning that we won't lose the game. But I must remove you from the equation if we are going to have a shot at winning this.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:00 am
by Tohru
At this stage, who would
not
be doused if they were town here?
Xtoxm, Max, Vedith, Dannflor.
If any of them flip town it is a losing play.
We are
not
lynching Xtoxm. Thanks.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:01 am
by Tohru
Maybe Liger/Psyche but he'd probably be doused upon that Psyche replace-in or last night.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:12 am
by Tohru
Memo that Max is actually a pretty underrated and strong player, and if any one of my reads is wrong, it's Max. As in, Max is more likely to be scum than Xtoxm.
In any case I require Jingle to be out of the equation before I can solve the game. A red flip would not only help me greatly in narrowing down the final scum, but also help town in general by giving us an extra mislynch and more.
Please lynch Jingle with me, everyone.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:22 am
by Ankamius
You believe Jingle and Xtoxm are not the team tohru?
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:49 am
by Akarin
VOTE: Jingle
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:51 am
by Vedith
