Mini 810: Infection! Mini - Game over!


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Post Post #850 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 5:27 am

Post by Rally Vincent »

EBWOP: I could think of either charter or Tajo as infected. (Then the Tubby stuff)
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Post Post #851 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 5:31 am

Post by charter »

Kelly Chen wrote:If we're looking for a N1 recruit, I say it's limited to pop, tubby, or Rally. But I'm thinking pop was the obvious recruitment, and scum just went ahead and grabbed him doc be damned.

I mean look at who the scum were: fallen, malthusis, and Mokina ('s vacant position). Do you think these guys were thinking how to outguess the doc?

As for last night, pop also seems like an obvious pick. You can't really base a case on that (and I think scum expect that), but I feel better about it than saying pop was scum yesterday.

/intend to vote pop.
So basically you think tajo was recruited every night? Seems more like you're trying to lynch tajo than actually figure this out to me.
unvote, vote Kelly Chen
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Post Post #852 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 6:12 am

Post by veerus »

What are the odds of malthusis going after tajo? Since Shotty is the scientist and he didn't protect tajo......
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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Post Post #853 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 6:40 am

Post by veerus »

charter wrote:
veerus wrote:well, i'd be ok with a KC or tubby lynch today... i think its pretty obvious that either charter or tajo got infected last night.. personally my money would be on charter (he's been more active and his reads have been spot on). if we lynch kc or tubby, it'll give us more time to determine who got infected between tajo/charter.
I shouldn't argue for my own lynch, but someone else will point this out, but why would you lynch someone besides who you think got infected? I think it's unlikely any original scums are left since ani died. And you can't let someone you think is infected alive until night.
Hm, i probably shouldn't post late at night. I didn't realize this at the time, but you're right, all 3 original scum have been lynched or suicided already. The idea behind my post was to give us more time to figure out who was infected last night by attempting to lynch one of our earlier suspects.
Kelly Chen wrote:I reskimmed a few people and I am going to completely flip-flop.
unvote, vote: Shotty


Much better bet I think.

Here's the breakdown I came up with:
Maybe original: charter, mokina/rplcmt, shotty, veerus, kise?
Maybe recruited: charter, pop, rally, shotty
Believe to be neither atm: me, bm, kid
This was the pebble that started the avalanche. Charter had been pretty townie up to that point and was leading a very strong case on mokina/replacement/aminoph and for you to put him in both original and recruited categories looks really bad (especially in hindsight).

vote: KC
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Post Post #854 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 6:50 am

Post by Rally Vincent »

Are you still hiding behind charter no matter what? Charter was really in a hurry to lynch Shotty yesterday. Of course, others - including me - weren't hesitating either, but it should be at least worth a look. Even more since he is one of your suspects.
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Post Post #855 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:34 am

Post by tubby216 »

Rally Vincent wrote:My prime suspect for today is tubby, though. Tubby, why did you vote for Shotty?
seemed like the right thing to do at the time i wasn't expecting a speed lynch, by time i got back to the thread shotty was dead
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Post Post #856 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:58 am

Post by Rally Vincent »

tubby216 wrote:
Rally Vincent wrote:My prime suspect for today is tubby, though. Tubby, why did you vote for Shotty?
seemed like the right thing to do at the time i wasn't expecting a speed lynch, by time i got back to the thread shotty was dead
Yes, but why exactly?
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Post Post #857 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:08 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Day 4 Vote Count

Kelly Chen -
2
(charter, veerus)
tubby216 -
1
(Kise)
veerus -
1
(tubby216)

Not voting: Rally Vincent, Kelly Chen, populartajo

With 7 alive, it will take 4 to lynch.
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Post Post #858 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:43 pm

Post by tubby216 »

Rally Vincent wrote:
tubby216 wrote:
Rally Vincent wrote:My prime suspect for today is tubby, though. Tubby, why did you vote for Shotty?
seemed like the right thing to do at the time i wasn't expecting a speed lynch, by time i got back to the thread shotty was dead
Yes, but why exactly?
cause at the time i was second guessing my reads and decided to go along with charter
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Post Post #859 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 1:02 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

@charter
I'm saying that pop has twice looked pretty protown. There are two theories for him being scum. I think the N3 theory is more believable, but the N1 theory is not totally out.

I can see why you voted me but I'm pretty sure I'm making sense.
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Post Post #860 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 1:39 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

veerus wrote:
Kelly Chen wrote:I reskimmed a few people and I am going to completely flip-flop.
unvote, vote: Shotty


Much better bet I think.

Here's the breakdown I came up with:
Maybe original: charter, mokina/rplcmt, shotty, veerus, kise?
Maybe recruited: charter, pop, rally, shotty
Believe to be neither atm: me, bm, kid
This was the pebble that started the avalanche. Charter had been pretty townie up to that point and was leading a very strong case on mokina/replacement/aminoph and for you to put him in both original and recruited categories looks really bad (especially in hindsight).

vote: KC
I don't think moving my vote from charter to Shotty started an avalanche, except of people questioning my categories...

Even charter said it was warranted to call him out for side-stepping the issue Replacement and Shotty raised. Saying he had been pretty townie is kinda debatable.

I don't think I actually derailed anything until I wrote the Shotty pbpa, that increased the count of Shotty suspecters from 1 to 2...
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Post Post #861 (ISO) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 1:47 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Rally Vincent wrote:Are you still hiding behind charter no matter what? Charter was really in a hurry to lynch Shotty yesterday. Of course, others - including me - weren't hesitating either, but it should be at least worth a look. Even more since he is one of your suspects.
charter's not scum, unless he was just now recruited. But that seems unlikely due to yesterday's misfortune.
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Post Post #862 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 2:47 am

Post by Rally Vincent »

Kelly Chen wrote:
Rally Vincent wrote:Are you still hiding behind charter no matter what? Charter was really in a hurry to lynch Shotty yesterday. Of course, others - including me - weren't hesitating either, but it should be at least worth a look. Even more since he is one of your suspects.
charter's not scum, unless he was just now recruited. But that seems unlikely due to yesterday's misfortune.
The point of my post was not that charter is scum, but veerus voting with charter, although charter is his most-likely-to-be-infected. Why would you someone do that?

Nevertheless, tubby is more suspicious to me right now then veerus.
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Post Post #863 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:41 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Yeah but charter being in a hurry to lynch Shotty doesn't seem relevant to veerus' theory for charterscum.
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Post Post #864 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:56 am

Post by populartajo »

Back. Sorry I was away for the weekend.

Why do yall want to vote me?

Also, thoughts on Mokina original scum or infected at night? This could become important in our guessing of the number or original infected.

More tonight.
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Post Post #865 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 4:04 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

populartajo wrote:Also, thoughts on Mokina original scum or infected at night? This could become important in our guessing of the number or original infected.
Yes, OR it could help us claim that somebody else is still original scum

FOS: you
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Post Post #866 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 4:16 am

Post by populartajo »

What are you talking about?
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Post Post #867 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 5:41 am

Post by charter »

Replacement/Mokina was pretty clearly original scum. I explained why back on day two.

tajo, I'd vote you because you would have been one of my top infection choices last night.
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Post Post #868 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:05 am

Post by Rally Vincent »

Kelly Chen wrote:Yeah but charter being in a hurry to lynch Shotty doesn't seem relevant to veerus' theory for charterscum.
Charter is the most-likely-infected for veerus, as he said - regardless if you or me think charter is. Since we had two suicides, that equals that for veerus charter is most likely scum. I fail to see why he has to vote for the same player charter does if he thinks charter is scum. Doesn't make sense.

BTW, veerus would be the best infection target, since every day everybody says he is not scum. If it wasn't for tubby voting veerus... dunno. Maybe he's bussing him.
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Post Post #869 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:06 am

Post by populartajo »

charter wrote:Replacement/Mokina was pretty clearly original scum. I explained why back on day two.

tajo, I'd vote you because you would have been one of my top infection choices last night.
why?
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Post Post #870 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 11:54 am

Post by charter »

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 19#1805219
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#1805222c

I agree with Rally about veerus making even less sense than usual today, however, I'm not seeing scum off him currently.
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Post Post #871 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 11:58 am

Post by populartajo »

charter wrote:http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 19#1805219
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#1805222c

I agree with Rally about veerus making even less sense than usual today, however, I'm not seeing scum off him currently.
No, why would I have been a top infection choice last night?
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Post Post #872 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 12:27 pm

Post by charter »

Oh, well, I think you were still pretty town yesterday and yesterday I wouldn't have thought you'd be lynchable, and with Shotty dead, you seem like a good candidate to infect.

However, I really have no clue how animorph's mind works, so I don't know if he did what I would have.
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Post Post #873 (ISO) » Mon Sep 07, 2009 12:35 pm

Post by veerus »

hm i thought i was pretty clear..

we've had 2 suicides, malt and mokina/et al. Given how tajo was the obvious choice D1, i feel it's pretty likely that malt would've gone for someone else.. as i (and BM) mentioned early in D2, KC was likely the one who malt would've picked

fast forward to last night's suicide.. the two obvious choices are tajo and charter.. to me, charter is the more likely target since he's been significantly more active and spot on with several of his reads however tajo is a great choice as well.

the idea behind my vote on KC is that i feel that that was malt's infection choice - a theory given strength by KC's counter wagon on Shotty to save replacement. Assuming this is correct, we can then evaluate today's play from tajo and charter to determine who's our last infected for tomorrow...... savvy?
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Post Post #874 (ISO) » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:18 am

Post by tubby216 »

i think veerus is an obv choice,

since tajo and charter appeared to be the most pro-town targets, veerus was all but confirm town by all but me, to me it makes sense to infect him and then sit back and watch as charter and tajo tear each other apart today. then wich ever isnt lynched today makes for an easy target tomorrow,

thats my reason for voting veerus today
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