Posted: Mon Sep 30, 2013 10:22 am
JacobSavage replaces MSG. Deadline is extended until Sunday 6th October 2013, at 10pm BST. Also mass prod going out (ignore it if you've posted recently
https://forum.mafiascum-staging.net/
^^Rach.In post 846, Nachomamma8 wrote:you're thinking msg/toomai, then?
I don't actually understand why you're voting him right now.In post 849, Toomai wrote:Not gonna lie I've currently lost most interest in this game, pending that replacement. If it wasn't MSG I would be voting him just for being my bottomest read with 5-ish days in the deadline.
He's a strong scumread at this point.In post 854, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?
meh.In post 855, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I am going to post a few quick scenarios. More detailed analysis will have to wait till the weekend. I discount Amrun, Jason, Rach, and JacobSavage being scum. I gave extensive reasoning for it and am convinced they are all town. Toomai is a little more difficult to determine. Nacho/ffery/Penguin are almost unreadable. I won't completely discount any of them being scum. That leaves us with 6 scenarios:
- This is the least likely. If you are scum together, then mad props to both of you. I discount this pairing.1) ffery/Penguin
I think Nacho could get me lynched pretty easily if he set his mind to it. But he has always NKed me when he been scum in our games.2) Nacho/Penguin- Possible. Nacho sees Penguin in trouble and has her as a top scumread bussing her. Then he kills Jason or me tonight. Amrun helps him mislynch Toomai after which he kills the other of me/Jason. That leaves him with ffery, Jacob, Rach, and Amrun. Jacob mislynch is easy. Perhaps he kills ffery and gets Rach or Amrun to vote each other? Alternatively, he kills Amrun instead of me and gets me (and possibly MSG who was in the slot at that time) to vote ffery to lynch her. Then kills Amrun and gets Rach to vote MSG/Jacob.
I don't think MSG/Jacob will be an easy lynch, at least while I'm alive. I could be wrong about the slot. If so, I'm adamantly wrong and it will take some doing to convince me of it.- Possible. If this is the case, they pretty much already lost. They can't go for any of the obvtown players (me, Amrun, Jason, Rach). Their only choice is to go for the less obviously town but more difficult to lynch players (ffery, Nacho) or to go for the only relatively easy mislynch (MSG/Jacob). They have both certainly expressed suspicion of MSG. I find MSG suspicion unjustified considering his ffery-trajectory only makes sense as town.
3) Toomai/Penguin
I doubt that scum-me would see bussing as a good strategy.- Not very likely. ffery sees Toomai getting heat and starts looking for reasons to suspect him? It is somewhat of a stretch. Besides, I can't see ffery-scum with Nacho-town. Nacho is way too sure about his ffery-read so either he is town and right, scum and buddying town-ffery, or scum and protecting his partner. I am definitely using burden of proficiency on Nacho and I think it is justified considering what I learned of his and ffery's background. On the other hand, I can see Nacho fooling ffery but I can't see it happening the other way around.4) ffery/Toomai
Maybe. I haven't seen that Nacho busses as a first-line strategy and it would surprise me if he did that here. Have you seen him do this in other games?5) Nacho/Toomai- Possible. Nacho wants Penguin lynch but sees Amrun deciding to go for Toomai. He decides that a bus is the best shot at towncred. After all, there are PRs for the mafia to kill and a good player like Nacho reaching 3P LYLO won't raise too many eyebrows in this situation. After the Toomai bus, possibly kill Jason. Use my help to mislynch Penguin, and then kill me. That leaves him with ffery, Amrun, Rach, and MSG/Jacob. Amrun and Rach help him kill MSG, then he kills Amrun/ffery and convinces Rach to vote the other. It is not optimal but it would be his best shot.
Nacho and I have never been scum together. I don't know how we'd approach a game but I would probably leave strategy to him. What I've seen from playing against him when he's scum is that he thinks a lot like you're thinking from the opposite perspective here. Who is hard to lynch and dangerous. Who is hard to lynch and easier to delude. Who is easier to lynch and how to set them up as the game progresses.6) Nacho/ffery- Possible and likely. This is the pairing that I most fear. Their gameplan would be fairly straightforward. Lynch Toomai now. Kill Jason. Mislynch Penguin, then kill me. That leaves them at 5P LYLO with Amrun, MSG/Jacob, and Rach. Getting one of Amrun/Rach to vote MSG slot would be a cakewalk. Although, the paranoia would be high and they would have to sell someone as being in a scumteam with Jacob.
I don't really follow this. Why am I a bad choice of lynch?
The only person who closed off the MSG/Jacob as scum option is ffery. Nacho/Penguin/Toomai are all going for MSG. That and the fact that there is no way that ffery is scum with Nacho town means ffery is a bad choice of lynch.
Yeah, agree with this.Any of the other 3 (Nacho/Penguin/Toomai) are fair game. I'll get to the three of them this weekend.
Pretty damn sure. I'm finding that most players (of the handful at MS who have played with me extensively elsewhere) are pretty suspicious of my play style at MS on first encounter. In some cases, even after they have played a game or two with me here, they're still paranoid about my tendencies toward slow-ish starts and dithering.In post 857, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:@ ffery, how sure are you that MSG/Jacob is town?
But this is the pairing you are pushing as the most likely one, isn't it? I guess it is possible. Penguin isn't playing to her town OR scum meta and Toomai has been inactive. Perhaps, they realized they were trapped - their only easy mislynch being MSG but if you adamantly oppose it, that becomes hard as well.In post 865, fferyllt wrote:I don't think MSG/Jacob will be an easy lynch, at least while I'm alive. I could be wrong about the slot. If so, I'm adamantly wrong and it will take some doing to convince me of it.
Based on your Nacho-scum model (surely you have one, don't you?), what would he do as scum if he replaced into a scum slot with Toomai as his buddy and Toomai is under imminent threat of being lynched? Would he bus? Would he try to divert the lynch? If so, who would he try to divert it to?Maybe. I haven't seen that Nacho busses as a first-line strategy and it would surprise me if he did that here. Have you seen him do this in other games?5) Nacho/Toomai
Because the only person I can reasonably see as your partner is Nacho whereas I can see Nacho-scum and you-town. Also, you are the only one who shut down MSG as a lynch option - all of Penguin, Nacho, and Toomai pushed for MSG-scum and I think that scum are more likely to not have him townread because it takes away an easy lynch. I think MSG suspicion is unjustified and we see eye to eye on that so less likely that you are scum.I don't really follow this. Why am I a bad choice of lynch?The only person who closed off the MSG/Jacob as scum option is ffery. Nacho/Penguin/Toomai are all going for MSG. That and the fact that there is no way that ffery is scum with Nacho town means ffery is a bad choice of lynch.
Do you disagree with Amrun that Toomai is a good choice of lynch? What is your most recent read on MSG? Who do you think is the best choice of lynch right now?In post 867, penguin_alien wrote:Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?
Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.
My nacho-scum model has some holes. Open 527 still stings.In post 868, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Based on your Nacho-scum model (surely you have one, don't you?), what would he do as scum if he replaced into a scum slot with Toomai as his buddy and Toomai is under imminent threat of being lynched? Would he bus? Would he try to divert the lynch? If so, who would he try to divert it to?
If you are town, allowing yourself to be mislynched is pro-scum. In a Mini, scum need to mislynch 4 townies to win. Town need to lynch 3 scum. So far, we are at 1-1. Why give up and make it 2-1?In post 871, Toomai wrote:If you think I'm a good flip, then go ahead, I'm kind of a distractional detriment to town right now.
I'm not giving up. I'm saying that if the purpose of my lynch is for information, then I'm fine with that and won't bother wasting time defending against it.In post 872, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:give up