Mafiascum.net

Bit busy; will be back tonight

In post 848, Iconeum wrote:I'm down 100% for lynching sky today. Skitter as secondary option.

Why are you most confidant on scum!sky?

In post 43, Iconeum wrote:

In post 39, Not_Mafia wrote:Okay guys you got me, I can't handle the pressure anymore, I'm Ice Mafia, you can leash me if you spare my life

VOTE: Not Mafia

Out your scumpartner so we can leash the both of you. Also, your name suggests otherwise and I don't like liars.
I guarantee cookies for complying.

In post 54, Iconeum wrote:Ofcourse. If his claim is real let's have him prove it.
I lied about the cookies though, but don't tell him that.

I really, really, don't think this comes from newb-bluescum. I feel like if bluescum saw someone fake-claiming bluescum, they wouldn't be so chill/casual/cavalier about it. There's like no awkwardness here; this is too natural a response to come from bluescum imo.

Im not scum. I'll havé to reread though.

Right now i'm partial to gif scum though.

We begin our tale by opening up two pages and putting Icon/Spring/Mumble in one sort by iso column and GiF/Skitter in another iso column, thereby giving me access to their posting history. Why not all in one you ask? Because there's an arbitrary limit of three per page.

Mumble/Spring and Icon

GiF and Skitter

Since I know I'm town, and there are only four of you left, that means the possible scum teams of:
Icon and Spring
Icon and GiF
Icon and Skitter
Spring and GiF
Spring and Skitter
GiF and Skitter

For the sake of comparison (a psuedo control)
Sky and Icon
Sky and GiF
Sky and Spring
Sky and Skitter

So I'm looking for evidence of collusion/avoidance between slot pairs and seeing if I think that's alignment indicative. Vote count analysis is a little weaker than usual because of multi-ball, scum players can legitimately be scum hunting, and helping to lynch red scum doesn't actually mean a player is town. That said, I'm still interested in seeing who lynched green/red and why.

Day 1 - redflavor mislynch.

LYNCH: (7) - , GuyInFreezer,
l, Sky_Paladin
- Iconeum, skitter30
Iconeum (1) - Mumble
-

Day 2 - Beefster mislynch.

LYNCH: , , Sky_Paladin, Iconeum, ,
- springlullaby,
- GuyInFreezer

Not Voting: skitter30

Day 3 - Mikan/Alisae lynch.

- Iconeum, skitter30, Sky_Paladin, springlullaby
springlullaby (L-1) (3) - , GuyInFreezer,

~~

Number of times these sets voted together at hammer:
Icon and Spring - 1
Icon and GiF - 0

Spring and GiF - 0
Spring and Skitter - 1
GiF and Skitter - 0

Sky and GiF - 0
Sky and Spring - 1
Sky and Skitter - 1

Notable results: GiF has never voted at hammer alongside any of the surviving players. This suggests that if GiF is scum, he has probably avoided interactions with his scum buddy.

Icon has voted at hammer alongside two surviving players (myself and Skitter). In both cases this was on town wagons. The final hammer on Alisae is not interesting because we know Icon is not red mafia.

This means if Icon is scum, he has probably not avoided interactions with his scum buddy, and it's likely to be Skitter or myself.

Looking at day 3 - My natural thought is that if Spring is town, scum will want to have been spread over the wagons, which implicates GiF.

OTOH if Spring is scum, I feel strongly that means GiF is town, because he had plenty of reasons to vote Mikan over Spring (and his refusal to do so is something I want to look at closer later on).

Note that both my 'avoided/not avoided' interactions are prefaced with 'probably'; this is not meaningful data on its own and is merely me attempting to find a pattern. I'm looking for common scummy trends rather than a single 'gotcha' moment.

Interesting that we don't have flips on any of the players who voted Alisae. I personally expected GiF or myself to be the night kill because GiF had for a long time pushed the narrative of blue scum being Sky/Mikan, and with Mikan flipping red (and red being dead) that doesn't hold water any more. So, what better way to setup a GiF mislynch then by killing me and showing a green flip? Skitter has wanted GiF lynched for most of the game - wouldn't that be enough?
If somebody wanted to push a mislynch on me, the easiest way would be to kill a player who I'd been focusing on. Is that why Kop was killed? Is that why Sesq was killed? But red killed Kop and blue killed Sesq. If both mafia teams hated me so much, why not just kill me? Or am I just obviously mislynchable?

Well night kill analysis is often just wifom and confirmation bias so I'll leave it at that for now and see if anything else I find might bear fruit alongside it.

Spoilered data that had no obvious value.


Next up, looking at the reasons players voted or did not vote RedFlavor or Beefster. This will take awhile.

In post 855, Sky_Paladin wrote:LYNCH: RedFlavor (7) - Kop, GuyInFreezer, Not_Mafia, Sesq, Beefster, Hawk, Mikan Tsumiki

This kinda shows that if there's bluescum on Red it has to be GIF given that everyone else on the wagon flipped already. (I still maintain that was a horrific wagon on someone not that scummy and I still don't like that GIF pushed it.)

Both mislynches had both redscum on it, which is kinda weird. If there's bluescum on the Beef wagon, it's you or ico. I don't think that ico is bluescum. That's the thing I'm most confidant in right now.

In post 855, Sky_Paladin wrote:Looking at day 3 - My natural thought is that if Spring is town, scum will want to have been spread over the wagons, which implicates GiF.

You're saying that if spring is town, there would have been one bluescum on Alisae and one on spring?

In post 855, Sky_Paladin wrote:I personally expected GiF or myself to be the night kill because GiF had for a long time pushed the narrative of blue scum being Sky/Mikan, and with Mikan flipping red (and red being dead) that doesn't hold water any more. So, what better way to setup a GiF mislynch then by killing me and showing a green flip?

Skitter has wanted GiF lynched for most of the game - wouldn't that be enough?

If somebody wanted to push a mislynch on me, the easiest way would be to kill a player who I'd been focusing on. Is that why Kop was killed? Is that why Sesq was killed? But red killed Kop and blue killed Sesq. If both mafia teams hated me so much, why not just kill me? Or am I just obviously mislynchable?

I don't get why you think GIF might have been the nk because he was pushing sky/mikan. Like I don't get the connection between being the nk and pushing sky/mikan. And you're saying that killing you shows that GIF was wrong on you and Alisae so he'd be mislynchable? I don't get the connection between being wrong on {you/mikan} and becoming more mislynchable.

I don't really think that the nk points anywhere specifc tbh. Sesq-slot was largely townread and I don't think was particularly mislynchable so I think they just killed her to remove her and to let us continue pointing fingers at each other. I don't think it points to you. Offhand only person I remember having a signifcant scumread on her is spring. I don't really think you're being framed here tbh.

Also bolded almost sounds like you know I'm town - to mislynch town!GIF you'd need one townie on it, and it sounds like you think that's me. (and that by default scum is ico/spring if you're town, I'm town, and GIF is getting mislynched).

I feel like you're being kinda defensive of GIF? Or maybe that you're tying yourself to GIF? Or that you're kinda very-focused on GIF? Idk the right words for what I'm seeing. I had been reading some of the game earlier today and I'm reminded of this post I wrote:

In post 252, skitter30 wrote:This feels weirdly defensive of GIF tbh? Especially since you start off by saying that it's hard for you to 'derive intent from quite minimalistic posts'. Like his posts are hard for you to parse but you're going to use them to towncase him.

Also like it's weird timing? There isn't much pressure there and it's not like he was in imminent danger of being lynched, so the bolded feels kinda off.

Well, no. I it's Icon and Skitter, because that's what I've been saying since about a quarter way through day 2 (I raised cases on both of you), but after the last day phase, I considered Spring/Sesq as well.

I don't really see any credible scum teams with GiF on them - I can accept players may be suspicious of GiF/Sky though. I've been leaning town on GiF for a good chunk of the game and I thought he'd be dead and I'd have to deal with Icon/Skitter scum.

That's probably what's going to happen anyway, so...

From my position you and Icon have largely been in lock-step for a good chunk of the game and that is the most appealing pick for a scum team but I want to make sure I'm not just confirmation biasing it.

I am concerned that you've both 'independently' come to pick me as your preferred lynch because neither of you have really considered the night kill or implications of the lynch - despite you calling Spring's hammer scummy - and Icon's insistence that he's obv-town because he helped lynch red. That doesn't follow. I also categorically disagree that he's newb-town because the quality of his posts are higher than what I would consider to be new.

It seems like neither of you are really looking for logical scum pairs - you're just looking for a (any) lynch. That bothers me a lot.

In post 857, Sky_Paladin wrote:I don't really see any credible scum teams with GiF on them - I can accept players may be suspicious of GiF/Sky though. I've been leaning town on GiF for a good chunk of the game and I thought he'd be dead and I'd have to deal with Icon/Skitter scum.

I do think that you're the most likely GIF partner, yes (in a GIF scum world).

I don't townlean GIF; the most town-motivated thing I've seen him do is speak out against a NM PL. I haven't really gotten townvibes from him like at any other point this game, and that's concerning me. Why are you townleaning him?

In post 857, Sky_Paladin wrote:

From my position you and Icon have largely been in lock-step for a good chunk of the game

and that is the most appealing pick for a scum team but I want to make sure I'm not just confirmation biasing it.

OK, where's the bolded happening?

In post 857, Sky_Paladin wrote:I am concerned that you've both 'independently' come to pick me as your preferred lynch because neither of you have really considered the night kill or implications of the lynch - despite you calling Spring's hammer scummy - and Icon's insistence that he's obv-town because he helped lynch red. That doesn't follow. I also categorically disagree that he's newb-town because the quality of his posts are higher than what I would consider to be new.

a) where did I ever say you're my preferred lynch today? I don't know who my preferred lynch is right now; I don't believe I ever stated who I wanted to lynch today - closest thing I said to that is that I said that I think that spring's hammer was scummy. Like I literally never said you're my preferred lynch today (or even yesterday. Maybe I did day2, I don't remember), so I don't get how you can possibly be using that as a reason to scumread me or teamread me/ico when it .

b) I didn't say anything about the scum-kill cuz I don't think it means much. I think they just removed someone who was kinda inconsequential but largely townread, leaving the gamestate in basically the same muddled mess it's been in for a while. Like I don't think the nk points to anyone, which is why I didn't bring it up.

c) I feel like you're scumreading me specifically for not doing stuff yet when like *no one else* has done stuff yet.

d) that's not why I'm townreading ico. Or, more accurately, I don't actually townread him - it's more like I 'don't-bluescum-read him', which means he has to be town.

e) What do you think about the spring hammer?

In post 857, Sky_Paladin wrote:It seems like neither of you are really looking for logical scum pairs - you're just looking for a (any) lynch. That bothers me a lot.

Where am I looking for any lynch?

You literally just told me that I've indicated that you're my preferred lynch. Which is it?

I don't think I've said anything about my lynch preferences today so I don't know how you can argue that I'm both looking for any lynch and also indicated that you're my preferred lynch when I've literally never talked about it at all.

Like I kinda feel like you're just making stuff up cuz you're using things that I never said or did to scumread me.

In post 855, Sky_Paladin wrote:Interesting that we don't have flips on any of the players who voted Alisae. I personally expected GiF or myself to be the night kill because GiF had for a long time pushed the narrative of blue scum being Sky/Mikan, and with Mikan flipping red (and red being dead) that doesn't hold water any more. So, what better way to setup a GiF mislynch then by killing me and showing a green flip? Skitter has wanted GiF lynched for most of the game - wouldn't that be enough?
If somebody wanted to push a mislynch on me, the easiest way would be to kill a player who I'd been focusing on. Is that why Kop was killed? Is that why Sesq was killed? But red killed Kop and blue killed Sesq.

If both mafia teams hated me so much, why not just kill me? Or am I just obviously mislynchable?

Or, more likely, you are scum

I'm also interested in you proving that i've been working together with skitter.
Because if you flip scum, I'm putting him at 50/50 with spring as your partner.

Everyone should at least state their preferred lynch

Come on guys, talk to me.

Who is willing/not willing to lynch Sky?

I'm beginning to entertain the idea, because he's using the claim that I wanted to lynch him earlier as a reason to scumread me, when I've done no such thing, so I feel like he's just making stuff up.

Sorry been busy.
I will have read when I do a VCA.

I have been unexpectedly and continue to be super busy and will finish my vca stuff in around 30-40 hours

OK I live. Doing the thing~

SO the first part of VCA is seeing why people voted where they did at phase end; why they helped lynch a towny, or creative reasons for not being on the lynch.

Day 1 had GiF on the redflavor lynch, and the rest of us off of it.

Skitter - Votes Beefster in 361 after a large number of posts, and had previously been on the Hawk wagon. Looking at the chronology:


So that's a long way to say: Skitter's excuse for not being on the Hawk wagon was because she was scumreading Beefster more, but that's not consistent with her reads, and the drop of Hawk as a scum read seems weirdly timed.
This looks to me like somebody wanting to avoid being on the popular wagon for the day. I don't really feel that Skitter was town-reading Hawk (and she did not say that, she just said she was 'not interested').

Day 2;
Beefster mislynch. Skitter was not voting.
Chronology:

TR;DR
The progenitor of Skitter's scumread on GiF was because she held GiF responsible for the RF mislynch. I actually hold him responsible for this too because Hawk was the obvious lynch candidate for the day, which is why I thought GiF could be red mafia during day 3 - but because it was Alisae, then it's a wash. There's literally no reason I can think of for blue mafia to risk themselves to save Hawk. So this is, in my view, probably a town clear for GiF.

Skitter was scumreading Beefster, because Beefster had voted GiF, blaming GiF for the mislynch of RF. Skitter held that Beefster can't hold GiF responsible for Beefster's part in the mislynch of RF. Even so, Skitter still didn't change her position on GiF, and even day 3 chose Alisae over GiF for the lynch. Skitter is also holding me for being protective of GiF in this current phase but from my view she's basically doing the same thing.

It's hypocritical. Is it scum though? The problem is that Skitter, Sky and Icon have all been posting a crap tonne and Spring and GiF have not. It's much easier to find false positives in giant walls of text.

Day 3 Skitter helped lynch Mikan who flipped scum; so we can't find scum intent behind it easily.

I'll leave it at that for now and get some sleep. Next up, Icon.

@Skitter: I'm aware you have posted some things. The main one I want to address is: I was under the impression you were scum reading me. Having reviewed your game to this extent I can see I had imagined it because of our frequent disagreements during day 2. I feel that you and Icon have very similar reads and I feel that both of you are attacking me and largely ignoring Spring/GiF. But when I reflected on this, I see that I also have largely been ignoring Spring/GiF. When I reflected on it more, I realised that 'feeling' that you were attacking me is not the same as 'actually' attacking me. I can see from your position that it may look incredibly contrived and convenient that I would scumread both you and Icon. And maybe I just imagined it. I know that I am a reactionary player. So I will review the situation again when I've finished this VCA.

I've also seen that your read on Icon seems to have been created out of thin air and that concerns me - you did briefly null read him at the start of day 2 however.

And now I sleep

I could've sworn I posted.

I think I'm leaning on skitter/ (one of sky/spring)

skitter cos his reasons for scumreading me is expired/baited.
By baited, I mean literally going after me for "leading the mislynch" on RF when really all I've done was rallying people who were already scumreading RF. Opportune, etc.

Spring... well. I'm p sure I mentioned something about "no reason to unvote" yesterday.
That "too descriptive" thing was a hook for scumread spring, and then her following posts I just didn't feel like town was posting. This is more of a gut read than a logical read.

Sky, well, the "cheeky scumfuck" theory still stands. But less so at this point really, being LyLo and all that.

I townread Ico.

Gun to the head, skitter/spring, btw.

@sky:

Do you want me to go through that line by line? And can you please respond to the things I've bolded?

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:Other than this there is nothing really important to the lynch/current game state until 181 where Skitter voices opposition to Hawk's policy vote on NM, and his list of reads - which is valid given Hawk flips scum.

Like 181 wasn't about Hawk, it was about Beef, so idk what you're talking about here.

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:Skitter's 195 responds to Mumble/Spring re the Beefster wagon. She specifically picks TD as scum, but not with Beef; which implies she reads both as scum slots and is supporting this by currently voting Beef.

And I was voting TD at the time; I specifically made a whole thing about not joining TD on their wagon.

-----------

A few things:

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:So that's a long way to say: Skitter's excuse for not being on the Hawk wagon was because she was scumreading Beefster more, but that's not consistent with her reads, and the drop of Hawk as a scum read seems weirdly timed.

Because the Hawk wagon changed my read both on Beef and Hawk?

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:I would have thought Skitter would consolidate onto one of her other scum reads, which at the time consisted of TD, but she declined voting there previously because there wasn't enough votes on the TD wagon.
At the time she switched to Beefster, Beefster was on one vote - the other voter was Icon. Is this significant enough to warrant a vote there over TD?

Yes? I don't see the point at starting vanity-wagons towards the end of the day if I know that it won't go anywhere.

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:Yes, I am aware Skitter argues that it's different because Beefster let GiF 'talk him into voting RF' so it's not fair to hold Gif accountable, and I also think that's not a real thing.

Blaming someone else for a wagon that you let them talk you into joining with like no resistance is incredibly scummy to me. It's dogding responsiblity for your vote, and yeah, I had issues with Beef blaming GIF for the wagon when he happily joined him on it.



-----------

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:Day 3 Skitter helped lynch Mikan who flipped scum; so we can't find scum intent behind it easily.

----------

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:The main one I want to address is: I was under the impression you were scum reading me. Having reviewed your game to this extent I can see I had imagined it because of our frequent disagreements during day 2.

Yeah, I'm kinda scumreading you, and have been for a while right now.

What I never did was say you were my preferred lynch, which is not at all the same thing as finding you scummy, and I'm taking great issue at you putting words in my mouth like that. And yeah, now I kinda want to cuz I feel like you're just blatantly making stuff up and misrepping me.

Thing is I'm not sure right now if my read on you is getting influenced by me getting annoyed cuz you're making stuff up - I can't tell if you're conf-biased or if you're just willfully misrepping me.

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:and largely ignoring Spring/GiF.

Kinda hard to engage with people that aren't here.

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:I can see from your position that it may look incredibly contrived and convenient that I would scumread both you and Icon.

I don't really care about your read on Icon right now tbh - I don't think he's getting lynched today so it doesn't matter too much.

In post 867, Sky_Paladin wrote:I've also seen that your read on Icon seems to have been created out of thin air and that concerns me - you did briefly null read him at the start of day 2 however.

For like the four trillionth time, I don't townread him. My actual read on him is null, but I explicilty don't think he's blue scum, so he's town by default.

I kinda feel like I'm letting myself get distracted by sky.

Out of everyone, I think that spring is most likely scum - she's been coasting for days now and providing very little content, and the hammer yesterday on someone she townread was atrocious.

Going through spring's ISO:

603 - sky likes TD's readslist in part 'for the use of an image to demonstrate a very valid point' -> I just realized the very valid point is that TD used that image to demonstrate his townread on mumble-slot. This actually kinda looks like she's using TD's readslist to bolster a townread on her slot?

OK, reading through the rest of her posts, and the main thing she does is defend the townread on TD despite badposting from alisae. I'm overall really confused as to the motivation of holding such a strong townread on someone for like two gamedays and doing like nothing else (and then hammering the townread when the oppurtunity came around). There's like very little scum-hunting from her at any point.

In post 868, GuyInFreezer wrote:skitter cos his reasons for scumreading me is expired/baited.
By baited, I mean literally going after me for "leading the mislynch" on RF when really all I've done was rallying people who were already scumreading RF. Opportune, etc.

(she please)

I don't really think 'all you've done was rallying people who were already scumreading RF' is entirely accurate:



Some of the people on the wagon were already scumreading him, but some of the people were not and you canvassed their vote.

----------------

Honestly, I'm not entirely sure how to read you. You have a lot of posts, but I don't find a lot of them to be AI. I guess I'm trying to figure out if you appear to be more town-or-scum motivated.

I think the most town-motivated thing you did was stall off an nm pl, but I don't think that's particularly unfakeable; I certainly don't find it a strong reason to townread you.

You weren't exactly playing to avoid the nk, which is I guess kinda a silly way for scum to play it, especially since red scum appear to have been looking for members of the opposing team in each of their kills.

The only person you kinda make sense as a partner with is sky - I don't think ico is bluescum and you had ample oppurtunity yesterday to hammer alisae instead of sitting on the L-1 spring wagon; doesn't make much sense to sit on your partner's L-1 wagon when there was a counterwagon at L-1.

I really don't like the rf wagon.

I didn't like the way that you responded to the NM kill, as I felt like you were kinda distancing yourself from it, but that is no longer relevant since you can't be redscum.

The more that I think about it, I think I just gut scumread you. I don't have any concrete reason for doing so. I don't really think I have a good reason to townread you either though, except that you haven't been trying to avoid the nk.

My conclusion after all of that is that I don't know how to read you and I don't want to lynch you today.