Newbie 1951 (Day 4)

[Farkran]

Oh my... VCA analysis is useless? I mean i come from another site and all but it seems to me that you analyze all the wrong things in here. Analyzing progression flow is useless especially in d1, reads flip all the time due to sheer lack of info, people playing tricks on others for reaction test purposes, post count skyrocketing so it takes a lot of rereads from all povs to get a clear idea of what's going on on people's heads, and stupid rvs/rqs to boot (i mean stupid as in they don't make a lot of sense and are usually used to get people to speak). I update my readings a billion times during d1s and so far i only got a secure position on nmsa and emps, everything else may go from TR to strong SR and vice versa in a second.

D1 you mostly analyze VCA and behavior, then possible pairings depending on vca/behav, finally you may look at words used while hunting for scumslips or strong towntells. Actual words used (aka progression) have little importance if not backed up by actions (aka relevant VCA).

i.e. emps has potentially bad VCA but very strong behavior and i can see no pairings on him.

This is how to play imho.

I did forget sushi was on my train at some point though.

[Farkran]

Look again at train comps. 1 and 3 are almost the same. No scum in both? I don't believe so.

There have been multiple trains (4, not 3):

• 119
  on Farkran
  : Seleynee, Sushi Martyr, Emps, Menalque (Sushi unvotes after hammer test)
  
• 368
  on Farkran
  : Seleynee, emps, skitter30, teacher (Menalque gives intent in 399; Skitter leaves in 474)
  
• 540
  on Menalque
  : NMSA, Teacher, Skitter, Farkran (Teacher leaves in 541)
  
• 768
  on Creeper
  : NMSA, Seleynee, Menalque, Skitter (Menalque leaves in 790

You say 1 and 3 are almost the same. I assume you are talking about 368 and 768. But Spam is new. Emps is off. And Im off. So I dont get why you say they are so similar????

I will still refer to my 1, 2 and 3 for the sake of simplicity, and name the sely/emps/mena/sushi train on me as #4.

You say 1 and 3 aren't similar. Selynee, skitter, emps (gave intent on 3, see 773) and menalque were on both. They are pretty much the same train if you replace nmsa with teacher in either.

Mena's train was a bit different, but now emps jumped in too, that leaves out selynee only. On a scum!mena this day is looking fairly good. Otherwise i'm a bit worried about skitter.

[teacher]

Alright, it’s three days to deadline and a weekend. Let’s get a claim.

VOTE: creeper
That’s L-1

[teacher]

Didn’t see this page. Fair enough on the wagons. I did overlook emps intent.

I do think skit/Menalque has a scum. I do want Menalque to come back in today and give words.

[Selynee]

That is, before mena jumped off it. Now we'd all target mena i guess.

Nah, the logical way here is to look at me if you believe the whole "bad associations" as well as mena and others if EC flips scum. Voting because you feel like you can save your scum partner is a thing. Problem is you never mentioned said associations.

Because they havent been much of a presence in the game but have been on almost all the wagons except Menalque - where she certainly wasnt pushing against. Like lowkey flexing them through. Mostly because Id want to see them react to pressure.

Makes sense though I don't exactly see why I could have had a TR on Menalque.

[Farkran]

I kinda want to vote menalque again now but my reading of him is like a rollercoaster. I am going to iso him over the next hour or so

[Farkran]

I believe 1 scum in (mena/skitter) is plausible at this point. Not both.

Selynee doesn't look good either, team teacher/sely or even skitter/sely would make sense too. I may be willing to get sely too but i feel like i need more info about teacher/skitter first.

UNVOTE: teacher

VOTE: menalque

[emps]

Fark, we usually only use VCA when one scum has flipped, or during Lylo. sometimes d2 tho.

[EpicCreeper9002]

Alright, it’s three days to deadline and a weekend. Let’s get a claim.

VOTE: creeper
That’s L-1

Well hopefully this is the setup that has a doctor... I am tracker

[teacher]

Who would you have tracked? Why?

[Menalque]

Ffs

Creeper

You no longer had intent, emps is voting me rn

[Menalque]

I think this is prob true incidentally

[Menalque]

I think creeper’s play makes sense from the POV of newb!town not wanting to draw attention

[teacher]

I disagree. Once they became a thing it’s obvious that ploy wasn’t working.

Creeper, did you crumb your role at all?

[teacher]

UNVOTE: creeper

[teacher]

And how does believing it affect your read on Fark?m

Don’t forget the skit thing either.

[Menalque]

I haven’t, but I’m busy today so if I do it today it won’t be until 5pm your Time earliest (I think)

Also not sure

I think fark jumping onto me is a lil bit scummy (like, not even really thinking about skitt?) but also I think fark has been bad enough that if town that’s probably just town them still being bad

[Menalque]

Why did you unvote if you don’t agree w/ me?

[teacher]

Because I’m online and there is discussion of the claim to be had that is better had not at L-1. Scum could of course wuickhammer, and that’s a net positive for town, but I’d rather have not just your and my perspective.

[EpicCreeper9002]

Who would you have tracked? Why?

I would go with Selynee. As I said before, they were one of the more overlooked players. I think it would make sense for scum to have the quieter player do the killing. I might have also gone with Sushi Martyr, but their recent post gave me town vibes. Of course, now that I've said this, things are going to be completely different (assuming I survive).

I disagree. Once they became a thing it’s obvious that ploy wasn’t working.

Creeper, did you crumb your role at all?

nOPE

[emps]

i was going to say tracker or neap should cc but then i forgot there s a new setup smh

ill see what roles shoulds cc

[emps]

k so onky prs that can be with tracker are fn, doc, and jk

[emps]

its only a safe fakecliaim in 2B and 2C

[emps]

if you are a tracker, cop, or mason, CC this.

[teacher]

Yea the setup was designed to prevent claimbreak strategies, which also limits fakeclaims.

Like scum never claims this in column B, because there is a 66% chance of being countered. Same in A+C because of A1!cop and A3! mason.

So actually with setup reflection Im inclined to credit this.