FWIW, that was my feeling when it went down yesterday, that elmo was only voting to try for townie cred, especially as clidd had already announced that he was going to vote for jormengand.
Anyhow, looking at the voting records so far:
Iconeum
:
29: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for atarashi (atarashi,menalque,clidd,iconeum,jormengand,doobietime:1)
49: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for jormengand (jormengand:3; menalque,iconeum,doobietime:1)
145: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for menalque (menalque:2; atarashi,jormengand,iconeum,doobietime:1)
206: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for menalque (menalque:3; iconeum,atarashi:1)
269: day 1 hang vote from iconeum rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for menalque (iconeum,menalque:2)
531: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for doobietime (jormengand:2; iconeum,walrus,doobietime,clidd:1)
574: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for jormengand (jormengand:3; clidd,iconeum:1)
597: day 1 hang vote from iconeum rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for jormengand (jormengand:3; iconeum,clidd:1)
680: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for doobietime (jormengand:3; clidd,doobietime:1)
690: day 1 hang vote from iconeum rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for doobietime (jormengand:3; clidd:1)
726: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for jormengand (jormengand:4; clidd:1)
Very strong & active voting pattern; along with the uncontested mason claim icon is almost certainly town, in spite of the odd night kill.
atarashi
:
7: day 1 hang vote from atarashi for clidd (clidd:1)
42: day 1 hang vote from atarashi for jormengand (jormengand:2; menalque,iconeum,atarashi,doobietime:1)
147: day 1 hang vote from atarashi for menalque (menalque:3; doobietime,atarashi,iconeum:1)
162: day 1 hang vote from atarashi rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for menalque (menalque:2; doobietime,iconeum,atarashi:1)
300: day 1 hang vote from atarashi for jormengand (menalque,iconeum:2; jormengand:1)
758: day 2 hang vote from atarashi for doobietime (doobietime:2)
Early interaction with lotus has them looking credible, and the way they went back to pushing for lotus after the dust settled between menalque & iconeum make it seem more likely they are town.
menalque
:
9: day 1 hang vote from menalque for iconeum (clidd,iconeum:1)
62: day 1 hang vote from menalque for elmo (jormengand:2; iconeum,doobietime,atarashi,menalque,elmo:1)
82: day 1 hang vote from menalque rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for elmo (jormengand:2; menalque,iconeum,atarashi,doobietime:1)
744: day 2 hang vote from menalque for 72offsuit (72offsuit:1)
745: day 2 hang vote from menalque for doobietime (doobietime:1)
As pro-town as menalque has seemed, this slot's record doesn't actually look all that good. guiltylion voted for elmo when the pressure was on lotus.
72offsuit
:
13: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for jormengand (doobietime,jormengand,iconeum,clidd:1)
53: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for atarashi (jormengand:2; iconeum,doobietime,menalque,atarashi:1)
223: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for menalque (menalque:3; iconeum:2)
396: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for walrus (jormengand,menalque,walrus,elmo,iconeum:1)
559: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for jormengand (jormengand:3; doobietime,iconeum,clidd:1)
562: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for jormengand (jormengand:2; doobietime,iconeum,clidd:1)
583: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for jormengand (jormengand:4; clidd,iconeum:1)
766: day 2 hang vote from 72offsuit for doobietime (doobietime:3)
776: day 2 hang vote from 72offsuit for doobietime (doobietime:3)
First vote for jormengand was RVS, so not much cred gained there, especially as they switched to vote atarashi when lotus got to three votes. Not sure if they every explained their unvote in #562. Was very defensive under questioning by menalque.
A lot of what he's pointing out about elmo does seem to ring true to me though.
doobietime
:
56: day 1 hang vote from doobietime for iconeum (jormengand,iconeum:2; atarashi,menalque,doobietime:1)
623: day 1 hang vote from doobietime rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for iconeum (jormengand:3; clidd:1)
Um, yeah. doobie's voting record is horrible. Looks very much like n00b baddie, especially with the choice of night kill. If we don't hear something convincing from her, no real choice but to lynch her.
elmo
:
10: day 1 hang vote from elmo for doobietime (iconeum,doobietime,clidd:1)
192: day 1 hang vote from elmo for menalque (menalque:3; atarashi,iconeum:1)
441: day 1 hang vote from elmo for clidd (iconeum,jormengand,elmo,clidd,walrus:1)
737: day 1 hang vote from elmo for jormengand (jormengand:5)
812: day 2 hang vote from elmo for 72offsuit (doobietime:3; 72offsuit:1)
The vote for menalque was understandable, given his play.
The vote for clidd seemed pro-town and raised some good points about his lack of voting.
Arguing against getting another replacement for the lotus spot seemed odd and anti-town, limiting the info we'd have to work with.
I still don't understand why the hammer for jormengand when clidd had already said he was going to hammer in
729.
Used the same "lining up lynches" reasoning when voting for 72 today, as used for clidd yesterday.
So, at this point, unless we here something amazing from doobie, I'm thinking we should probably hang doobie today. The two noob baddie scenario seems pretty plausible, although this post gives me a little doubt:
18 -- would a baddie really post this about their teammate??
I feel I need to find some time to read back the early part of the game before I joined in more detail; I should have some time for that after lunch.