Mafiascum.net

In post 842, Chemical Elements wrote:I'm having my doubts on how much we can analyse based on the flips. Since you came up with the suggestion, do you have any ideas?

Let me address the first part first: If we can't analyze flips, then what exactly is our source to develop our reads?

Now the second part:

WeyounsLastClone (L-0) innocentvillager, Marksman, Hayasaka, Casey, Elements, Nono, Chemical Elements, Isis

Hayasaka (L-0) innocentvillager, hellbooks, Nono, Isis, Elements, Marksman, Chemical Elements

hellbooks (L-0) Hiraki, Elements, Isis, Chemical Elements, innocentvillager, spicer(as Raya), Nono

Elements (L-0) Casey, Hiraki, Marksman, spicer(as Raya), innocentvillager, Nono

IV is on all dunks so far (bad), but he was first on Wey and had plenty of time to change that if he wanted to avoid that dubk (good). IMHO, the "good" outweighs the "bad" here, so I think IV is a townie who has been misplaying (or has been having bad reads), This is supported by the fact he is voting nobody (as of the post I'm responding to) which means he realized his reads have not been accurate and is reconsidering. I can fully understand a townie who had a boost from a red flip and got too confident to also lead a misdunk, then trying to be more of a team player (wasn't leading either of the last 2 misdunks) and then taking a deep breath to reevaluate.

Marksman also was early on Wey. He was late on Hayaska, not on hb and appears again on Elements. On surface he should appear even more townie to me than IV is, but I somehow find IV a bit townier and I don't even know why. Still a TR though.

Casey was on the scum dunk and only one of the 3 misdunks. I don't think I need to explain why that appears to be a town slot based on that.

Nono is another slot that appears on all dunks so far, but -unlike IV- she was late to the party on Wey. She also hammered twice (hb & Elements) and appears to have adopted this shtick to disclaim responsibility of her votes. "I saw a hammer and I took it". Looks bad to me.

You (Chemical) I have explained why you also look bad despite not having been on Elements (which probably happened too fast for you to hop on, maybe?). Still, even if you could have been on Elements and chose not too; it happened after I had pointed out 5 players were on all first 3 dunks. (or it could've been because Elements was one of those 5 you didn't want him dunked??)

Isis also on all first 3 dunks, but not Elements. I don't know how I feel about her actually hammering Wey though. If scum bus'd Wey then it's in you, Nono & Isis.

I probably have nothing solid for Hiraki or Raya , They both weren't on the first two but appear on the last two. However, taking their posts into consideration I think they are town leans. Both of them. And besides Spicer wasn't active, so couldn't have been on the early dunks anyway regardless of alignment.

That leaves Lavender as the odd slot that doesn't appear on ANY dunk (aside from my own slot that is) and I can't tell what she's doing/thinking given that I dunno how her scum game looks like. That's a true null here (would have been a town lean in any "normal" game).

As for my slot, I have explained why I was against being "vote-happy" like a dozen times already.

Assuming you are the next dunk: If you flip red I would probably be more aggressive towards Nono/Isis there, as it would appear you were trying to protect your team (by assuming scum didn't bus). If you somehow flip green I'd still be sus of the two, but I would have no case.

Flawed "correlation = causation" arguments are the words I was looking for regarding that Raya post.

I'm a little scared of Nono tbh but still think she's more likely town than not. Reassure me, or at least post some Lion RP to compensate.

In post 847, Marksman wrote:

In post 822, Casey wrote:Chemical Elements / Isis / Marksman is my guess now.

Why?

inno focusing on the likilehood of nailing the scumteam rather than talking about the people themselves is weird.

Raya's reevaluation is kinda towny. Agree with 840, but I think trying to maintain all of your members, especially early on in a nightless is pretty important. So, I do think scum would've avoided bussing, or at least not planned to bus from the start. But once it looked like Wey was a sinking ship, 1 or 2 of them probably hopped on for the towncred.

Elements because I don't have any input on any of his posts.
Isis because her biggest suspect is Lavender although she's been contributing mostly well otherwise.
And you because nothing you've done is scummy.

Those are terrible reasons but at this point what else do we have?

Lavender is just... gone.
Nono hasn't done anything notable the entire game.
A50 and Hiraki are my scumreads and they're probably town.
IV is blabbing about numbers which is typically scummy IMO.
Raya has a collection of good posts and bad posts.

Like, where do we even go from here?

VOTE: Unvote: Chemical Elements
VOTE: Unvote: Marksman
VOTE: Unvote: Isis

All my votes are dumb.

I'm going to make a spreadsheet and then present it with no meaningful results.

kek, lemme solve the game,, few hours

Target	Wagon
Chemical Elements (L-2)	Hiraki, Marksman, Raya36, Almost50
Hiraki (L-4)	Marksman, Raya36
innocentvillager (L-4)	Lavender, Nono
Nono (L-4)	Hiraki, Raya36
Marksman (L-5)	Hiraki
Almost50 (L-5)	Nono
Raya36 (L-5)	Marksman
Lavender (L-5)	Isis
Not Voting (3)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Casey

Marksman & Nono are 95% town.

Likely buddies if maf...

A50 - Hiraki, Isis, Raya

CE - Isis, IV, Lavender, Mark, Nono

Isis - A50, CE, Hiraki, Lavender, Raya

IV - CE, Hiraki, Nono

Hiraki - A50, Isis, IV, Nono, Raya

Lavender - CE, Isis, Nono, Raya

Mark - CE

Nono - CE, IV, Hiraki, Lavender

Raya - A50, Isis, Hiraki, Lavender

Or in simpler terms,

CE/Isis
CE/IV
CE/Lavender
CE/Mark
CE/Nono
Isis/A50
Isis/Hiraki
Isis/Lavender
Isis/Raya
Hiraki/A50
Hiraki/IV
Hiraki/Nono
Hiraki/Raya
Nono/IV
Nono/Lavender
Raya/Lavender
Raya/A50

Not gonna consider Mark and Nono at this time...

CE/Isis
CE/IV
CE/Lavender
Isis/A50
Isis/Hiraki
Isis/Lavender
Isis/Raya
Hiraki/A50
Hiraki/IV
Hiraki/Raya
Raya/Lavender
Raya/A50

Possible lucky triplets...

Isis/CE/Lavender
Isis/A50/Hiraki
Isis/A50/Raya
Isis/Hiraki/Raya
Isis/Lavender/Raya
Hiraki/A50/Raya

Anyway I read through the whole game again and these pairs/groupings have the least compelling reason to believe that at least one of them is town.

I really want to dunk Lavender or even CE before Isis. But Isis is surprisingly more likely maf and is on every team with either of them.

I have trouble reconciling Lavender scum after that slot was on D-1 for so long. Still don't see how kek xD is town.

Nono and Wey had some truly bizarre interactions and I don't see them as Maf/Maf.

In post 573, Hiraki wrote:I can agree with Lavender.

Vote: Lavender

What changed?

@Hiraki:

In post 593, innocentvillager wrote:UNVOTE: Lavender

Lavender was D-1 for all of 5 hours and nobody who wasn't on the wagon posted (except Hayasaka who flipped town).

I don't think your reasoning is valid.

Lavender has been D-3 to D-1 since Votecount 2.2. Is your point that I said the words D-1 rather than "large wagon"?

I don't feel confident who the scum is more than anyone else, but this deadline really pressures us to dunk :/

I still like my top candidate because the way Chemical Elements acted like he'd never thought of scum behaving the way you don't expect them to behave intentionally so he could shift off a position that was bringing him lots of heat looks pretty damn bad. It's not an impossible to remind someone of the other side of WIFOM and slowly change their view that happens in games but massive convenient 180s usually come from scum.

I don't understand Casey's pairing list

really looking forward to Nono solving this game

In post 867, Hiraki wrote:Lavender has been D-3 to D-1 since Votecount 2.2. Is your point that I said the words D-1 rather than "large wagon"?

I only have your words to go on.

I read through the whole game and gave people scores based on how well I liked their interactions with each other.

0 is meh or non-existent.
5 points is okay.
10 points is pretty good.

I also read through interactions with WLC and determined that Nono and Mark were highly unlikely to be mafbuds.

I want to townlock Casey and I don't even care if it's wrong look at the pretty colors omg

That's like so much work

I generally agree with most of the cells

lol

Isis wrote:That's like so much work

I generally agree with most of the cells