Mini Normal 2169 : Mafia Thread

[bob3141]

i think nora will beleive me if i say i have a guilty. with her more likely to suspect me if i dont

i would expect her scum team would be alonzo and you. Unless she reevaluates

[bob3141]

golden suspects alonzo and alozno suspects golden

[bob3141]

randonm org says golden lol

3 out of 5

[bob3141]

though im not leaving it to random org.

alonzo is bulletproof. so he and golden are in 1v1 for blocking the nk. Once alozno claims it becomes unsure who actualy block the nk.

And teh late claim will also sort of look like scum trying to break goldens semi clear. And even make it look like scum no killed intentionally.


mmmmm

[bob3141]

alonzo has been reading me as scummy town. With his solve being golden and username.


But with username cleared who will be switch to

[bob3141]

alonzo will prob switch to me as scum with usernames flip. So if i fake guilty on golden then he will prob switch to bob/datisi.


He has been flip flopping on golden a bit

[bob3141]

on balance i think its alonzo i need to fake my guilty on.

[Datisi]

ok here's the issue i think
on daybreak, it's going to be dats/bob/noraa/alonzo/tgp. noraa will be confirmed town. if tgp is also "confirmed", possible teams are

dats/bob
dats/alonzo
bob/alonzo

obvious which "solve" each one of us has to have.

however, i'm assuming alonzo will claim his bulletproof now. *if* he does, tgp is no longer confirmed town, but tgp/alonzo team is not possible, because one of them must've soaked up the hit on night two

from a neutral pov, possible teams are:

dats/bob
dats/alonzo
dats/tgp
bob/alonzo
bob/tgp

alonzo/tgp

we will be confscum to each other.

i'm thinking either guilty on alonzo or guilty on me. probably alonzo. idk if there's a point in bussing for wifom here.

[Datisi]

alonzo is bulletproof. so he and golden are in 1v1 for blocking the nk. Once alozno claims it becomes unsure who actualy block the nk.

And teh late claim will also sort of look like scum trying to break goldens semi clear. And even make it look like scum no killed intentionally.

1v1 blocking the kill, but they're not in a "real" 1v1 then

my idea was to push alonzo for not claiming bulletproof today, because if he did, the optimal strategy says the vig should shoot him.

however, i don't think i can be the one to present this argument, because my "solve" once alonzo claims will have to be tgp/bob (because tgp/alonzo isn't possible because of a missed kill and alonzo/bob isn't possible because i spent way too much time arguing this setup needed more town power)

though i haven't included the idea of alonzo/tgp intentionally no-killing?? but i don't think anyone would actually buy that...

[bob3141]

yep i will have to scum read you.

with goldden being long time town read and nora being confirmed. No way i can do anything else.

if i fail i will have to make it look like alonzo is actualy my buddy




my flip rules out any extra scum power due to there normaly always being atleast one goon. you could spin that as their being to much town pr with alonzo.

And that im very much the player to no kill. If my buddy was goign to fake bulletproof at teh last hour. You could also use the fact i changed my town read on alonzo with little reason. Any always tried to push players away from their

[bob3141]

you could follow username solve

golden/bob +n alonzo. lean towards golden at start of day and if i flip. take it as golden being confirmed town

[Datisi]

where was i going with this. idk i'm tired and my brain is not doing things properly.

if you claim a guilty on alonzo, the execution is always between the two of you i think. i'm assuming both tgp and noraa trust you over alonzo, but it seems a bit too... convenient... they'll probably reevaluate... and i think i'll have to push you. (because tgp/alonzo and bob/alonzo will make like no sense so it much be bob/tgp ughhhhh fucking hell) if someone votes alonzo, gg, but if not, *and* you flip mafia informed, i don't think i can justify voting alonzo over tgp in final 3. which means i need to go toe-to-toe against tgp. not something i'm looking towards. i don't think we're distanced too well.

if you claim a guilty on me, one of us goes down 100%. if it's me, you go 1v1 against alonzo, if it's you, i need to go against tgp. the only (i think) reason to go this path is if we think town wouldn't expect a 5p lylo hard bus. it definitely turns the game into a coinflip, and idk if i like those odds.

a random "clear" isn't that interesting, but i think we again run into the problem of tgp/alonzo don't make sense as a team therefore we're confscum to eachother, which like, either we pray one of noraa/tgp/alonzo decide to vote elsewhere if we manage to bullshit out some OpTiMaL LyLo sTrATeGy of who should get eliminated, or we have to go at each other and then it's the same as the above except we don't have the hard bus wifom going for us.

[bob3141]

with you nk nora if we fail to endgame tommorrow

[Datisi]

my flip rules out any extra scum power due to there normaly always being atleast one goon. you could spin that as their being to much town pr with alonzo.

i don't think i can do that once you flip. i've spent forever today arguing that this setup didn't have enough town power. now a scum PR flips, and i'm suddenly arguing there's too much town power?

[bob3141]

then you will have to argue that alonzo becomes confirmed town on my flip. and that ico protected scum on the night we shot alonzo

so prob start with golden +bob/alonzo

[bob3141]

when i give my guilty im going to start it off with my full fake claim of being macho follower. Even has nice ring to it.

i have 1/3 chance of catching a kill if town. so it will look worse if ive failed to get any useful result at all.

[bob3141]

i just hope that goldens hammer trigger nora to vig him.

play it off as golden being happy with either lynch. And that teh wagongolden is pushing is all of sudden the player im claiming a guilty on

[Datisi]

claiming a guilty on alonzo then, huh?

[bob3141]

think so. its either alonzo or you i think. just dont think i can claim a non gulity. As ive produced useless results for town all game. If i claim guilty on you i think it will just look liek bussing


our best bet is a quick hammer.

[bob3141]

i can play it off as i thought one of gtp and alonzo was scum with you. but because i was town reading them i was betting that they would carry out the kill rather than you.

[bob3141]

thats nora last read

both scum in{datisi, user, alonzo}

username flipping town doesnt really chnage this. And as you say it will be between me and alonzo. And i dont think we can win in 3p

[Datisi]

yeah, i guess. i don't think any of our options are outright good here...

how ~hard~ should i be going at you/tgp, btw? i'm not sure how well i'll be able to obvtown or anything (since i'm kinda not town huehue) but i'm debating whether there's merit in not going ~that~ hard to give more impression of me/alonzo being caught? though that could backfire BIG time if someone catches on that i'm purposefully being bad. but again i easily lose motivation as scum if i think we're losing. sigh i hate lylos...

i'll try to get some sleep and think more about this, though there probably won't be any useful results. also i need to get up early to get some work done, been procrastinating on schoolwork today because of this game lmao

[Datisi]

the one "positive" thing if you claim a guilty and instavote alonzo is that i can speedhammer upon one vote and we don't have to coordinate a quickhammer here. yes. look on the bright side.

[Datisi]

inb4 noraa just fucking shoots me tonight lmao

agh i love this game. ok gonna go sleep for real.

[bob3141]

yep any town player would vote straight way if they have guilty. so we just need nora or alonzo to hop on and you can hammer


you cant move to hard straight away as you were town reading me last day. so would have to be more along the lines that it wasnt username so has got to be bob. if your goign to have solve of gtp/bob you have to look liek your defending alonzo. try a few back handers.


i will think on stuff that can used as back handers against alonzo. by back hander i mean you mix in thing that others are scum reading him for in his defense.