Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2-3

Phantasos was another of Hypnos's children who presided over sleep and dreams. He appears deceptively in dreams as lifeless inanimate objects: "earth, rocks, water, trees". Ovid apparently considered trees to be lifeless objects.

quiet

(2): Mikul, Lunar Martian

Mikul

(1): safebet222

Not Voting

(4): petapan, Battle Mage, quiet, unwnd

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline: January 6, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-01-05 21:00:00)


Mod Notes:

-

[safebet222]

Mikul... entertain me for a minute. Assume Lunar is scum in a goon/goon setup. BB claims PR and that he will be protected. Look at column C... what is the only possibility? I don't think its rocket science to figure that out. The only risk is if BB is telling the truth or not. But once Lunar goes to E-1, what does he have to lose?

Also, it is interesting that you pushed for the hard claim D1 and the fact that there wasn't one is the reason you hard defend Lunar.

So, let's ask why you would push for the BB claim D1.

You could be forthcoming and really thought that the hard claim was good for town because of the possibility BB was fakeclaiming. I find that hard to believe because BB wasn't ever really in danger of being elimm'd. Why would scum go through the trouble of fakeclaiming on E-3? Doesn't make sense. Also doesn't make sense that you thought it was good for town if you then argue that the fact there wasn't a hard claim is the reason that you're not considering a Lunar fakeclaim.

It could also be that you could be scum and you were looking for information for the future play for you or your scum partner.

The last possibility is that you are town and you are wrong about this whole thing, but I take you as much better than that at this game.

[petapan]

safebet, can i just ask where you thought quiet towntold?

[safebet222]

i think he's likely a player who gets falsely suspected a lot and he probably just gets killed overnight

I agree with not voting them today, but I don’t think they get killed a lot.

The rb can just rb them every night, and force town to decide. The doc just becomes another vanilla town that can’t do anything-which neatly masks the goon play.

From my perspective, I think I need to scumhunt within peta, safe, unwnd. Illwei maybe, but I think I’d like to focus on the first three. Mikul is clear in my eyes.

@peta oof, my bad, lie more, got it.

The upper emphasis followed by the lower emphasis, from my understanding, just is not coming from scum, ever. Scum would keep that under wraps then never admit that he should lie more.

[safebet222]

Out of game context... I sincerely hope everyone has a wonderful New Year and that all of your goals and wishes come true in 2021.

@mod I will be V/LA until Jan 2nd at this same time, 48 hours...

acknowledged! ~f

[Mikul]

@safebet the issue is context. When I was making that argument for BB, there were 0 outed power roles and lot less to lose (if he was scum). If he guessed wrong, he got cced and they killed cop or he would take a 1v1 later. Pressure was obviously going his way. The issue with lunar is (sure he has pressure), and yes he could have an informed position. But the informed position at that point is totally different than the point I was making with BB. Because BB had 1) already outed 2) played it off like he was lying 3) could have been a vanilla baiting a nk. Scum Lunar would not have a reason to lunge at doc. Is it possible he did that. Yes of course its possible, and if he did, it's a balsy and very good play. Not sure how much I'm willing to entertain that. There is a huge dichotomy between when BB was going to claim and the points I was making, than when Lunar was claiming

What point does lunar as scum fake claim or risk fake claiming doctor. Even from an informed position. If they are goon, goon. They would have to hope BB is not lying because it's not revealed at that point. Hope that he's not a vanilla towny baiting a nk, hope that my analysis of him being cop was right (it happened to be)

I just think it's way more likely that lunar is actually a doctor, and mafia is a rb. Not saying I would never consider it, but holy shit it would be a very very very hard sell for me barring a scum slip.

There is a very very good reason, that there is pressure on him right now. Not going to say what, but it will have its uses that he's being fosed so i don't mind it.

[Mikul]

May as well say what i'm thinking before I get scum read for that. It's very likely mafia role block him and leave him alive because he is fos. In a normal game, we would expect the kills to go BB > Lunar. I lowkey expect mafia to just rb and target a generally townread towny to pushy a mislynch on lunar. I'm also a good mislynch target.

I'm like near sure, people raising this theory / that are on his wagon are scum. One of them is, and the other is quiet

He's also just to damn agreeable and not taking hard stances now. He's speaking in vague dialogue and half ass reading people. I want a vig so damn bad right now

[quiet]

Mikul, I feel your frustration, but if I’m giving half ass reads (admittedly been a busy time with holidays and been posting from my phone, so I’ll agree that my quality/effort may have dipped in the last week)..I literally posted yesterday exactly that neither lunar nor I ever get shot at night, expecting that either way lunar always survives and is therefore a liability to town...as am I, so long as you and lunar are in the game. I gave that read, along with the whole lunar chain of logic, that we have been (imo productively) discussing. I said at the start of today that I’d be trying to get reads on safe, unwnd, peta. It’s going to take me a bit.

If there’s one thing I’ve felt decent about, it’s been my level of attention and engagement. I know you scumread me into infinity. I know nothing ever changes that until I flip. I know you don’t believe it, but this is my first game, and I’m still trying to figure out how to be useful, give confident reads, especially on people that are experienced and I believe have the ability to post in a way that is basically never AI unless forced to defend/wagon someone in an anti-town way.

From my perspective, yesterday gave very little mechanical information, as I know both final wagons were innocent, and we really can’t do anything about Lunar right now, and the only other wagon yesterday was Illwei, who i townread into infinity and just got replaced, and BB, who was also town. This means two things: one, scum could have played basically the entirety of yesterday as pro town as they wanted with no cost to them whatsoever, and two, I have no mechanical info to use, so I now have to do the thing I’m least experienced at: make reads.

The field of play has narrowed. That’s something useful. I have some town reads. That could be useful. What I don’t know is if it’s going to take me getting hanged, because like I said, with you around, I NEVER GET SHOT, to move the game forward, or if it’s better to elim someone else.

Also I’ve been very clear I don’t want to elim Lunar today. I just think it needed to be discussed, as I said in my previous post. It’s just about the only mechanical info we got yesterday. So now we’ve discussed it. Great. I’d like to discuss the scariest world now, which is a {ringer, ringer} or {ringer, Lunar who we can’t vote}, where in this case I’m trying to sort between:

peta (town, but I remain frightened)
Unwnd (playstyle seems like it would be rather effective as scum)
Safebet (lots of susses been thrown their way-prob mostly for lack of activity, which has proven to be an incredibly bad indicator of guilt this game, more likely in ringer ringer game than otherwise)

I recognize that there are other possibilities, but these ones seem like they result in a town loss most frequently, so I want to explore them today if possible.

I want to keep my mikul townread. Does anyone think that scum mikul tunnels and plays like this? I’ve looked for some other games that might show something, but this seems...uncharacteristically intense.

[quiet]

Short summery: if lunar is scum, they have a ringer partner. I guess I’d entertain mikul then, but could just as easily be anyone else. If lunar town, I’m very sure there is at least one ringer scum. In the words of our dearly departed cop, “fuck this game is hard”. Scum never had to put themselves at risk yesterday, as the majority of people on the chopping block were town, and all PRs are eliminated or blocked forever now. I am most concerned about going into the late game with me, Lunar, mikul alive, with some ringers left, and me always getting voted, or lunar always getting voted, which sounds like a really really bad deal. An innocent ringer gets shot tonight. It feels like we should elim at least one of them and hope...or just get rid of me, to make sure a mikul, quiet, Lunar, x, x world doesn’t develop. That sounds world feels to me like a loss.

[quiet]

To make it even more direct, if none of the following happen:

1. Mikul or lunar or both stop thinking I’m scum (yeah no)
2. We hit on scum tonight
3. One of mikul, quiet, Lunar are voted tonight
4. mikul and Lunar are exactly scum

Mikul, Lunar, and I survive to tmmrw;
I get voted tmmrw and from my perspective where I know I’m inno, town loses.

Solutions:
1. everyone is so confident in townreading me that we vote one of them. I don’t like the mikul vote, Lunar is at best a 50/50, don’t think i inspire that kind of confidence, don’t love this plan.
2. Someone changes their mind and stops tunneling me into infinity.
3. We just find a scum and solve all our issues.
4. Vote me and make sure we find scum tmmrw. After scum hasn’t had to put themselves in the limelight once.

Am I missing something? Is that too in the weeds/making too many assumptions?

[quiet]

Also happy new year from PDX! Thx everyone for making the end of 2020 so much fun.

[quiet]

Just read every single Mikul game on this form, and while I have not seen any examples of tunneling this extreme, I’ve seen every example of play this passionate/engaged/detailed as both alignments. No longer have any read on Mikul, as I no longer give Mikul any town credit for pushing me so hard with such specificity. I’ve seen Mikul do that both ways. Am considerably happier with a Mikul elim now than I was.

Mikul, is there any world where you stop voting me? Ever? Or is literally my only play as town to either vote myself, or vote you? (Or lunar I suppose, but they seem to come around way more frequently then you do.)

[Battle Mage]

Illwei: Towny town to me. Seems relaxed, putting his reads out there, I don't agree with everything he says, but I see town in the way he says it.

I absolutely hate this. Newbie scum pulled this read on me (my slot) last game, almost word for word.

But in general, quiet's open to the game is strong.

[Battle Mage]

i don't understand how safebet is still alive. i'm on page 8.

[Battle Mage]

on page 21. I can't quite believe my predecessor townslipped...and nearly got elimmed for it.

fking hell guys...

[Battle Mage]

I don't understand quiet saying that illwei was 100% conftown for the slip, but also saying he understood why people would think he was scum because of it.

[Mikul]

@quiet no

[Mikul]

Your only play as town is to do what you feel like. The fact that you think you have to vote me because omgus is also sus. Just because I'm tunneling you doesn't mean I will get the lim. I have to get others to buy it and I'm doing a terrible job at it apparently

But saying my only play is to vote you because you won't stop
..yikes

Quiet / uwnd

Quiet / safebet

Prob uwnd

[Battle Mage]

This was a game that started slow, but got pretty interesting. Lots of it has me completely baffled. Take the below:

unless safebet or quiet (or bbmolla, isuppose) show up and counter it looks like we're not voting lunar today.

i really strongly question why, if lunar is the town doctor, they weren't more accepting of bbmolla's claim and instead tried to push on him, but i suppose not much to be done about it now

@peta. Why would he push molla.

If anything as doctor he would town read him.

O I read that backwards nm. We are saying the same thing.

Of course town Doc is going to be suspicious of someone crumbing a town PR as BBMolla did, without committing. They would want to force BBMolla to take a position so they could assess the claim against their own knowledge.

Mad takes.

[Battle Mage]

Your only play as town is to do what you feel like. The fact that you think you have to vote me because omgus is also sus. Just because I'm tunneling you doesn't mean I will get the lim. I have to get others to buy it and I'm doing a terrible job at it apparently

But saying my only play is to vote you because you won't stop
..yikes

Quiet / uwnd

Quiet / safebet

Prob uwnd

I don't think quiet/ unwnd

I'm considering quiet/safebet

still reading

[Battle Mage]

Me and turtleslot? As partners?

Or me and unwnd. That second one makes no sense to me. Unwnd would be happy to coach me in private thread.

ok, i take it back, maybe unwnd-quiet is back on the table.

relatively speaking, I think Mikul looks pretty good this game

[Battle Mage]

I’ll note that Lunar was E-1 when they claimed it, people were telling them to claim, and especially with the known columns, and bb’s pretty heads up soft cop claim, there’s not much to lose. They were 100% getting elimmed otherwise. I’m not going to push it today, but I think saying you’d eat the loss and never consider it is going a little far imo.

I buy the Lunar claim because:

Prior to the claim, they behaved exactly as a Doctor should have (conspicuously so).
They claimed a specific role, when arguably they could have tried to mimic the vague "I'm a PR" claim of BBMolla, as somebody else pointed out.
Despite the conclusion some jumped to at the time, as I read it, it was not close to certain that BBMolla was Cop, and so a Doctor fakeclaim would have been very risky.
I'm not even convinced they would have felt they would 100% get elimmed without a claim/PR claim - that Day 1 was a rollercoaster, and they had already been at -1 earlier and come back down despite not doing anything.

So I'm in the same territory as Mikul on this - Lunar at the bottom of the heap of people I'd elim today.

[Battle Mage]

no idea what this ringer shit is, so im just ignoring it

[Battle Mage]

My first thought is that I kind of agree with BB that someone is scum on Norfolk's wagon since he flipped green... post 767 and that Illwei's reasoning for voting Norfolk is weird. That slot is upsetting to me...

@peta: Can you explain why you think it unlikely that scum partners buss D1? Also, is there any positive to flipping Lunar, even if he flips town doc? Cause I think there's a better than 1 in 6 shot FMPOV he flips red.

I have to reconsider my quiet read. At the least, if he is scum, I don't think he is partnered with an experienced player.

Mikul... I think you are just way off on that Occam's Razor thing. I think it's obvious why if we are in a goon/goon setup why they would know exactly what BB was based on what he said. BB just plain f'd up. I was hoping they didn't notice.

Right now looking at illwei slot hard.

this, in it's entirety, is gross

[Battle Mage]

then again, would safebet-scum really enquire softly about a day-elim on the doctor when scum are all over the PR situation? maybe...if they had a newb partner.