Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[RealCheeks]

Hey toog, what's Archangel doing up there in your townread?

-R

[Toogeloo]

I'm not sure if the raid is locked, but my preference for attendees if they wish it are the people in my town reads first.

[Toogeloo]

Hey toog, what's Archangel doing up there in your townread?

-R

This felt like a town slip...

So Join Raid is only for applicable players? Is that said in role pm?

[RealCheeks]

Any thoughts about Wheme, Krow, Mom, Sircakez that I missed?

I've mostly been going on other people claiming Bell is town but I'm a big fan of this post. Also never playing with Elsa before lines up with suspecting Elsa as scum.

I'm gonna double down on Elsa being easily pushable day 1. In fact the scummier their day 1 play is the more likely town they are imo. This is super old meta because we're super old people though so take it with a grain of salt.

-R

[RealCheeks]

Oh I hadn't seen Arcangel post except to say they weren't available.

-R

[RealCheeks]

I'm in this weird place where I'm seeing a lot of town and not enough scum. I get it's a large and there will be more town but day 1 I generally approach everything with suspicion but the responses to pressure (specifically Titus and dwlee) have been pretty townie even.

Gonna consolidate a readslist with cheeky soon but I'm not sure gamma is the right tree to bark up either. Consider our vote to also be on wheme right now.

-R

[Mystic Bears]

This post never comes from town Titus.

Uhh.
I actually dont think that specific post is alignment specific for Titus.

Although I do think that thinking that you can analyze raids like resistance is wishful thinking tho

Let me breakdown what I see in that scumclaim of a post.

First Titus does not give weak, question looking reasons like "its like resistance?" Second they do the whole~ oh I've done something awkward, look over there at my mech theorising. As queen of mislim bait everywhere, I know a scum vote onto me when I see it.
~C

Hmmm I don't really believe this reasoning it's weird. I scum read Momma bear but I don't like this reasoning. I just think her reactions don't feel genuine at all like yes, I misinterpreted her post but her reactions felt much more mellow than town Titus would be about it. Like my momma bear is someone that will grab a pitchfork the moment you say she's red when she's green. Zero hesitation. Her current reaction feels like she's trying to replicate that but it's pretty damn far from how shiny and green momma bear is when she's town.

The Titus wagon's a little dumb while she's functionally AFK.

Why is it dumb? If she was AFK, she wouldn't be posting. Plus no one is SRing her for her activity anyways.

Spoiler: ALT CITY

Sorry, I saw your message at work and then just remembered seeing you're online.

I don't know who to vote. SirCakez is fine, really; his iso is unimpressive even in his absence but also it feels a bit pointless too... I'm back and forth right now on RCE+Cheeks. I don't know where else to look really? Elsa? STD? I like tictac, just throwing out their thoughts whenever. The hydras are... fine right now. I'm a big shrug emoji. Qrow is also probably /fine/ as a vote but eh. Cakez/Qrow/someone who hasn't posted a whole lot here.

I think that you're probably town for now, Sakura is town, ahh... Dwlee maybe, enough to not poke there for now. RCE+Cheeks are currently leaning town for me in their back and forth. Mandlebrot is eh to me but people townread them so I'm probably just not getting it. I'm unsure on MOm but I have no idea how Mom's head works despite previous experience. This is from memory so everyone else is like okay cool whatever.

Huh I've never seen you give this many reads right off the bat before. You always don't express reads on the null-y people but this is a ton of reads on exactly those null-y people that didn't used to be there. I guess my only reservation is just that I always have trouble reading you like my gut read is typically right but I always talk myself out of it but now that I'm thinking that, I might dig myself a tunnel and sit there for the rest of eternity. ugh.

You're also shading the Titus wagon and suggesting Cake and Crowven which are both known to be LHF and I don't like that. Titus feels exactly like scum that I am going to push for that no one is going to listen to and then gets voted out like day 10 sometime right before ELO. I also just don't trust you but you can't really do anything about that.

Conclusion:
Town:
Me
Flea
Sakura
Bell

Null:
Cat
Massy
Elsa

Scum:
Mirio
Ydrasse
Titus

-bearbearbearbear

[Mystic Bears]

Mastina, sakura, Elsa, yourself, tic-tac I won’t be voting presently.

Bell is slightly above null, but will not move much higher without more out of him.

Why are Elsa and tic-tac in that list??
Also, Cabd's top top top secret meta tell says Bell is town so you can't touch him.

-nornornor

[Mystic Bears]

I can see Cakez, but Titus is stronger to me in gut with the above attempt to explain gut repulsion from their post. I said to RCE that Cakez seems like LHF but their hype entrance doesn't match up with their complaint about the game starting at a bad time for them so I

lean

scum.
~C

Cakez is the definition of LHF to a T. I used to think he wasn't amazing at scum which was why he always got pounced on fast but he gets pounced on regardless of alignment so I actually don't care what happens, we aren't voting him out day 1. He's also easier to sort with time. I imagine he'll also probably be a popular investigative destination so he isn't a threat at all.

-bearbeartsu

[Mystic Bears]

Also I was overgenerous with Bell early-game I think, and maybe I am setting this bar too high where I expect him to bleed town for me to townread him but I'm not... feeling his posting.

Feelings don't matter. Only the number does. Cabd's top secret meta tell is 10 posts per day = town Bell. Bell already reached it so it's town Bell.

-bearnorbearbear

[Mystic Bears]

Eh.

I was reading over them earlier and felt fairly harsh towards Cakez's 88 (thought it was faking excitement like town would or something) and 400 for scum being outpaced but the latter is unfair. IDK.

I don't feel anything in the slightest towards either post.

Like maybe I understand the excitement thing but Cake doesn't seem like the type to be trying to act cute/excited to get town reads. Last time I was scum with him, he was pretty serious and people townread it. The tell works somewhat decent on me but not so much Cakey boi.

I heavily dislike the second point. I got my ass tunneled with a similar post one time and it was just totally wrong. It doesn't matter what the pace is. If someone is overwhelmed, they're overwhelmed. Period. Like there are no what ifs. If scum use that, they use that and that's dumb but it's so often just falling behind town. This point is just wrong wrong wrong wrong and I give it one of LLD's big red x's

-bearbeartsutsu

[Mystic Bears]

I posted "stop spamming please.

I need this ego so badly cuz fuck I can't keep up."

and then got my ass handed to me and hard tunneled by literally everyone in the game.

-frowniebearbeara

[Mirio]

Just chiming in to say Bell is hitting some tone things too and anyone just reading him off post count is either being lazy or scum!

[Mystic Bears]

Just chiming in to say Bell is hitting some tone things too and anyone just reading him off post count is either being lazy or scum!

I'm not lazy or scum. I trust in the Cabd.

-nortsu

[Bee]

What a boring way of sorting someone, leaving no room for growth.

I feel so out of step with everyone in this game it makes me not want to interact much.

[Romance]

What a boring way of sorting someone, leaving no room for growth.

I feel so out of step with everyone in this game it makes me not want to interact much.

Wrong alt.

[Elsa Jay]

If anyone wants to know why I'm quiet now, besides being at work, I'm waiting for less people to be VLA in order to start the discussion up again.

Any particular questions for me I can answer tonight. Nice to see Panda here too.

[Sakura Hana]

The best way to sort someone is having no meta with that someone.
VOTE: EJ

[Mystic Bears]

Nothing is a tempting vote. >_>

Subtle backtracking.

So, for Sakura, I just dunno if this is how they would, as scum start the game out, after being away for awhile. Sort of semi serious, but consistent. Their attention just makes sense as do their responses for the most part. Not all of her posts are focused on looking town either, while other posts look town while appearing innocuous at first.

I like her and find her towny. She reminds me a lot of Super and Super was town when I had paranoia on her so Sakura is town too.

I'm back.

VOTE: Titus cuz first wagon blues.

I also didn't think the minus 2 days on deadline thing for the raid would do much but I forgot how slow some games go so two days off would suck. Doesn't help with 5 V/LA people here either.

This feels very noobscum. Like this is full-blown 2020 scum Noraa vibes. Oh they think I'm scummy? Bring the scummy meter 3x higher LETS FUCKING GO.
I don't think Elsa is ever scum with Momma bear though. Titus would tell her not to do that.

-tsutsu

[Sakura Hana]

There's also the thing that... my gut feels say Q+R are scum but like, then things like this:

I was only offsite for > 48 hrs and I didn’t even know that the game had begun.

sorry to bring yer rl into things, but there's an implication here about u not having access to a maf pt 4 pre-game planning that should not be ignored. otherwise game having started probs not a surprise.

Which make me think im most likely wrong.

[Mystic Bears]

Mirio is locktown. Sheep me on this after I'm dead.
-tehtehteh

I didnt really need you to tell me that.

Why is Mirio town????? I find most of his posts extremely scummy but honestly, I don't care enough to deal with Lukewarm like persons I guess. Like at this point I've accepted that I always find him scummy and no one ever agrees and I'm normally wrong but whatever Imma stick to my guns anyways. Someday I'll be right >:3

-nornornornornr

[Elsa Jay]

Did you... Accuse me of being newb scum Mystic? When more then half my like 30 games on site across my 3 accounts is scum/3p? When I just came back from 4 straight scum games in a row a few months ago?

I'm insulted.

[Sakura Hana]

Why is Mirio town????? I find most of his posts extremely scummy but honestly, I don't care enough to deal with Lukewarm like persons I guess. Like at this point I've accepted that I always find him scummy and no one ever agrees and I'm normally wrong but whatever Imma stick to my guns anyways. Someday I'll be right >:3

Well, i've been rereading the thread a lot, and from what i have on my notes, there's a bunch of people that have interacted with Mirio/Mirio has interacted with them in a way that indicate that it isnt SvS, so i feel like the chances of Mirio being scum is <rand.

[Sakura Hana]

There's still SOME people i could see Mirio being partners with, but if Mirio were to die and flip scum it clears quite a bunch of people, which is something i dont see someone wanting to do as scum. So I feel like there needs to be quite a few mental gymnastics to assume Mirio is scum and this is his master plan, or... he's simply town.

[Qrow and Raven]

Parsing your tier list, it looks like everyone is town except Cakez.

My mind kinda petered out there, I think I added a tier in the scum area that wasn't needed
my suspects are realcheeks and cakez atm, mostly because everyone else has done good stuff without really doing bad stuff with the exception of elsa
there may have been slots I townread too fast but I feel like there's time to correct if needed

-Qrow