Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2021 3:18 pm
I was literally still VLA at this point and was keeping the thread informed of my VLA status.
What did you think I should have been doing at that point?
I was literally still VLA at this point and was keeping the thread informed of my VLA status.
First half, I do not feel the need to respond to because obviously you have to say that from your pov you are town regardless.In post 819, Pavowski wrote: The problem with this (and I know, you prefaced it with "if DArby scum") is that Darby/I are not scum, and scum locked in the keep early. Since I know this, I go back and look at:
Scum!Ari grabbing slot #2 on the keep ensures scum doesn't lose immediately on d1, and if I accept Luke's argument about quick-snagging the first slot, this could make perfect sense.In post 747, Aristeia wrote:I do want to think about the order people went in for a bit..
Luke[K] -> Ari[K] -> VPB[G] -> Tooge[W] -> NQ[W] -> Imag[G] -> Implo[K] -> Tanner[G] -> Pavo[W]
the keep has the highest odds of winning.In post 837, VP Baltar wrote:What made you say this Ari?In post 502, Aristeia wrote:i think gate should resolve either second or last
if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here
I definitely don't agree with resolving the keep (lowest odds of winning) earlier when the other two games clearly have better odds of town winning.
no but I do extensive meta research on everyone I play withIn post 840, VP Baltar wrote:Have we played together before?
I'm talking about in the future.In post 850, VP Baltar wrote:I was literally still VLA at this point and was keeping the thread informed of my VLA status.
What did you think I should have been doing at that point?
So I've skimmed this game and a few of your other games and I do feel you are closer to your town!meta than your scum!meta here;In post 671, Lukewarm wrote:Probably this one: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86874In post 670, Aristeia wrote:Luke what would you say is your best completed scum game on the site so far? I do want to read it for a comparison.
That is the only scum game I have won lol
can you explain this a bit more? why should tanner be able to correctly figure out that you are town?In post 846, VP Baltar wrote:Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game
The analysis of the Gate makes no sense. He is hand waving and saying Tanner IC points to me...but never gives a reason.In post 534, imaginality wrote:- Gate: Well my read is obviously VP is scum. I am happy to go dig through his iso but from your POV I might be scum trying to bias your reads so I'll stick to fairly objective points. And obviously happy to answer any questions/requests.
I'm a bit surprised this game didn't get changed cos I think the choice of you as IC points to VP, so that makes me see the Darby - implosion swap as either a necessary S/T one, or as scum thinking it is a more useful swap than disrupting the Gate.
One other thought I had: if you don't have a clear view on whether the scum in our game is VP or me, it might be useful to see where VP and I differ in our reads on other games and resolve those game(s) first to help you decide between us.
- Wall: I want to re-read before commenting as I didn't have a strong read on either Toogeloo or numberQ D1. I think implosion is town because wouldn't scum implosion just stay put at Keep? So for me, the only scenario implosion is scum is if one of Luke/Ari is also scum.
- Keep: if either of Ari or Luke is scum, by play alone my hunch is still on Ari scum. If either of them is scum they likely brought in Pav mainly to swap out implosion, which implies the scum among them thinks Pav was a better choice to swap in than me/Tanner/numberQ/Toogeloo. The Luke - Pav history might be a point against Luke here?
The alternative scenario of Luke-Ari town and scum dumping the DArby/Pav slot into Keep is also very possible. Weighing against that somewhat: I don't recall anyone trying to angle against implo joining Keep? Rereading that part of the D1 discussion is high on my to do list.
Tanner has played with town me a shit ton. I'm not that hard to read.In post 858, Aristeia wrote:can you explain this a bit more? why should tanner be able to correctly figure out that you are town?In post 846, VP Baltar wrote:Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game
Damn, but you *have* done your homeworkIn post 857, Aristeia wrote:So I've skimmed this game and a few of your other games and I do feel you are closer to your town!meta than your scum!meta here;In post 671, Lukewarm wrote:Probably this one: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86874In post 670, Aristeia wrote:Luke what would you say is your best completed scum game on the site so far? I do want to read it for a comparison.
That is the only scum game I have won lol
However the example you gave me was imo a weaker performance than your scumplay in popcorn and I feel it's somewhat strange that Pavo didn't call you out for this.
I suspect it might have to do with himself playing much townier / more assertively in popcorn than this game and he felt perhaps it would not be a good example to bring up.
If I could see my way to agreeing with you on Ari / Toog, I guess I'd be obligated to go with you on yourself, hmm? Hmm.In post 859, VP Baltar wrote:ok, I got up through page 28, but that's about where today started.
So here is where I am sitting:
I think the scumteam is imaginality, Aristeia, and Toog.
Imaginality:
Posting an absolute shit ton of IIoA since the start of the game. I dare you to try and think of one original direction imaginality has moved this game. Just one. He is the unbuttered white bread of scumhunting.
This is a gem of an example:
The analysis of the Gate makes no sense. He is hand waving and saying Tanner IC points to me...but never gives a reason.In post 534, imaginality wrote:- Gate: Well my read is obviously VP is scum. I am happy to go dig through his iso but from your POV I might be scum trying to bias your reads so I'll stick to fairly objective points. And obviously happy to answer any questions/requests.
I'm a bit surprised this game didn't get changed cos I think the choice of you as IC points to VP, so that makes me see the Darby - implosion swap as either a necessary S/T one, or as scum thinking it is a more useful swap than disrupting the Gate.
One other thought I had: if you don't have a clear view on whether the scum in our game is VP or me, it might be useful to see where VP and I differ in our reads on other games and resolve those game(s) first to help you decide between us.
- Wall: I want to re-read before commenting as I didn't have a strong read on either Toogeloo or numberQ D1. I think implosion is town because wouldn't scum implosion just stay put at Keep? So for me, the only scenario implosion is scum is if one of Luke/Ari is also scum.
- Keep: if either of Ari or Luke is scum, by play alone my hunch is still on Ari scum. If either of them is scum they likely brought in Pav mainly to swap out implosion, which implies the scum among them thinks Pav was a better choice to swap in than me/Tanner/numberQ/Toogeloo. The Luke - Pav history might be a point against Luke here?
The alternative scenario of Luke-Ari town and scum dumping the DArby/Pav slot into Keep is also very possible. Weighing against that somewhat: I don't recall anyone trying to angle against implo joining Keep? Rereading that part of the D1 discussion is high on my to do list.
But the real gem here is when you read his Wall and Keep analysis. What is he really saying here? who is he saying are my scum buddies? There are no solid conclusions....just a lot of words to lull you to sleep.
Aristeia
Ari is also absolutely chock full of IIoA and mech talk. Read her ISO from today. She's not scum hunting. What she is actively doing is trying to pocket Luke. She town reads him for being "genuine and warm". She's been dodgy about reads all game, but I didn't realize she was still doing that until I read up today. She states her solve is VP-Pav-Toog. But I couldn't tell you why she thinks that because she has given no real reasons or even done scumhunting that I can tell. Her ISO is just a steam of buddying people and mech talk that is quite bad. I think I will quote some specifics on this tomorrow if I get some time.
Toogeloo
I can't remember who said it (implosion I think), but Toog's opener post struck me as weirdly put together and complete. Toog just LOLhammered me in a Xylo while barely giving me a chance to speak. They don't strike me as the contemplative type. Whoever it was said it was more likely that scum spent much of the night thinking about the game and how to open the day, as compared to town who had a long night and the holiday. I totally agree with that (admittedly biased because that fits my own town experience.)
I think these three also have interesting interactions. Ari and imaginality are kind of both poking around me and trying to suggest strats for the Keep that put Ari in a position of power.
Toog seems like a bit of a sacrificial lamb at the Wall with Ari scum reading them for unclear reasons...but with NQ posting fairly incomprehensibly, maybe they think Toog has an OK shot of coming out of that game alive?
I'm not sure it matters since it is only Tanner making the choice, but sure.In post 863, Pavowski wrote:If I could see my way to agreeing with you on Ari / Toog, I guess I'd be obligated to go with you on yourself, hmm? Hmm.
What have you done this game with a pro-town motivation?In post 860, VP Baltar wrote:Tanner has played with town me a shit ton. I'm not that hard to read.In post 858, Aristeia wrote:can you explain this a bit more? why should tanner be able to correctly figure out that you are town?In post 846, VP Baltar wrote:Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game
Here is my town meta: Am I doing things with pro-town motivation? If yes, I am town.
Doesn't matter maybe but wouldn't you consider it bonus points if you changed my mind?In post 865, VP Baltar wrote:I'm not sure it matters since it is only Tanner making the choice, but sure.In post 863, Pavowski wrote:If I could see my way to agreeing with you on Ari / Toog, I guess I'd be obligated to go with you on yourself, hmm? Hmm.
I'm fooking not =\ that's why I keep talking about my game when my efforts might be better spent on the others.VP Baltar wrote:Pav, how confident are you that Luke is scum here?
Also, apropos of nothing, I just realized that your join date is my RL birthday, and that's sort of freaking me out, but that might be the space jam talkingIn post 869, Aristeia wrote:Pavo, what are you doing to try to sort me?
I organized a badass sort. Doesn't get more obvtown than that.In post 867, Aristeia wrote:What have you done this game with a pro-town motivation?
Sure, happy to have you but I'm not certain certain you're town either so...In post 868, Pavowski wrote:Doesn't matter maybe but wouldn't you consider it bonus points if you changed my mind?
Well, I mean I won the game that I linked and I lost popcorn, so that leads me to think that I was stronger in that game? I generally think of the newbie game and the popcorn as my good scum games, and DSII and that bastard one as my bad scum games.In post 857, Aristeia wrote:So I've skimmed this game and a few of your other games and I do feel you are closer to your town!meta than your scum!meta here;In post 671, Lukewarm wrote:Probably this one: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86874In post 670, Aristeia wrote:Luke what would you say is your best completed scum game on the site so far? I do want to read it for a comparison.
That is the only scum game I have won lol
However the example you gave me was imo a weaker performance than your scumplay in popcorn and I feel it's somewhat strange that Pavo didn't call you out for this.
I suspect it might have to do with himself playing much townier / more assertively in popcorn than this game and he felt perhaps it would not be a good example to bring up.