Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?

He's a strong scumread at this point.

You had him as null when you first came in. What changed that he is a strong scumread now?

@F-16 why do you CONSTANTLY refer to Philosophers stone?

Same mod, same theme. It helped with setup speculation and got me to realize that Stubbs was likely scum.

give up

I'm not giving up. I'm saying that if the purpose of my lynch is for information, then I'm fine with that and won't bother wasting time defending against it.

I don't recall who said that the purpose of your lynch was for "information." Regardless, the info gained from a scum lynch is exponentially higher than that gained from a mislynch (through associative tells). The best move is to always push your scumreads as opposed to submit to an information lynch.

[penguin_alien]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

Do you disagree with Amrun that Toomai is a good choice of lynch? What is your most recent read on MSG? Who do you think is the best choice of lynch right now?

Yeah, I disagree about Toomai. Mostly because while he remains possibly scum, his ISO has almost no useful information, which means even if he did flip scum, there's not much in terms of pinpointing the last scum there.

MSG was getting townier, and if I had to guess I'd say the replace-out was towny. I want to see what JacobSavage does with the slot, as I've played with him a bit. My initial take is that scum would be more likely to come in with a plan of attack instead of kibitzing.

At the moment my lynch preference is Nacho.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, I disagree about Toomai. Mostly because while he remains possibly scum, his ISO has almost no useful information, which means even if he did flip scum, there's not much in terms of pinpointing the last scum there.

Why does that even matter? If he is scum, then good. Lynching scum always trumps associative tells.

Did you ever make your decisions on the basis of whether the flip will provide associative tells before as town?

MSG was getting townier, and if I had to guess I'd say the replace-out was towny. I want to see what JacobSavage does with the slot, as I've played with him a bit. My initial take is that scum would be more likely to come in with a plan of attack instead of kibitzing.

At the moment my lynch preference is Nacho.

Can you link the game where you played with JacobSavage?

[JasonWazza]

I'll just put it out there that i don't like the way JS came in at all.

Of all people he could have addressed, he addressed the person that was pretty much conf-town, and it would take a small skim of the last few pages to check it and find out.

Not to mention on didn't even post on the page before.

JS just gives me scum feels right now.

UNVOTE: Toomai
VOTE: JacobSavage

[fferyllt]

Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?

He's a strong scumread at this point.

Why?

[fferyllt]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

Do you disagree with Amrun that Toomai is a good choice of lynch? What is your most recent read on MSG? Who do you think is the best choice of lynch right now?

Yeah, I disagree about Toomai. Mostly because while he remains possibly scum, his ISO has almost no useful information, which means even if he did flip scum, there's not much in terms of pinpointing the last scum there.

MSG was getting townier, and if I had to guess I'd say the replace-out was towny. I want to see what JacobSavage does with the slot, as I've played with him a bit. My initial take is that scum would be more likely to come in with a plan of attack instead of kibitzing.

At the moment my lynch preference is Nacho.

This whole post feels like more hedging.

[fferyllt]

I'll just put it out there that i don't like the way JS came in at all.

Of all people he could have addressed, he addressed the person that was pretty much conf-town, and it would take a small skim of the last few pages to check it and find out.

Not to mention on didn't even post on the page before.

JS just gives me scum feels right now.

UNVOTE: Toomai
VOTE: JacobSavage

I don't even

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, ffery thoughts on Toomai's deathwish?

[Amrun]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

Simply because I think Toomai is the most likely to flip scum.

Purely going by informative lynch, I think MSG/JacobSavage is the most informatively lynch (and I don't like how he entered the game, either).

I would vote on either of these wagons happily, with no second thoughts -- however, until it becomes time to coalesce, my vote will be on my preference, which is Toomai.


I am not a huge fan of F-16's breakdown. In particular, I think his reasonings for ruling out the last two pairings are ??? But, it matters very little because I'll eat my shoe if he's scum and I incidentally agree with him that I don't want to lynch ffery today. If I need another reason, her response to F16, particularly the "why am not a lynch candidate," came off townie to me.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Which pairing in particular do you disagree with me on ruling out?

Can you provide reasoning for why Toomai is the best lynch?

[Amrun]

Toomai has done almost no scumhunting all game, and what scumhunting he has done did not come off genuinely to me and does not gel with itself. His content contains almost exclusively excuses, and his behavior is really strange around the Stubbs lynch and subsequent flip.

I really want to post but I have nothing to contribute. I have weak, aggregate reads on four players and doubt the correctness of all of them.

Hoping something happens because I don't know how to make things happen.

Just a few examples of excuses. At this point, he is voting exclusively for "bad" plays, like on JasonWazza for ... being Jason.

I like the case on Stubbs, I'll think about it more while

I'm on V/LA for today

.

Look at dat fencesit on scum.

Not sure what to make of Stubbs' reaction. He's right about Marquis doing just about nothing but a meta read and an unexplained read, but I'm not sure how putting together a reads list helps one get into a game.

I'm a bit weirded out by Jason's behaviour. My first game ever on this site, Jason was the one who was forcing everybody else to participate. The fact that he refuses to do so now, could mean he's scum, but it could also mean he's onto something with Amrun, as he claims.

This however looks like just fencesitting.

He says all this, but never votes Stubbs, and in fact, is still leaning towards Jason later.

Vote: Marquis

Frankly I feel JW has been more helpful.

Powering the counterwagon.

How has Jason been more helpful?

At least he promised to explain his antics. He shouldn't be given a pass until he does, but Marquis has the bigger wagon right now, and the deadline's in two days.

A bit of a strange post on Jason -- my belief that scum would not want to flip a JOAT here makes this tick my scumdar.

Holy cow dat wagon speed.

LEGENDARY, GLORIOUS, MAGNIFICENT CATCHUP POST!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: JasonWazza

impressed.gif

I know you gave your reasons before but this still feels a bit non-sequitur.

To be honest though, while I don't like how fast the wagon piled up, there is a deadline within a day, and it's not like he wasn't a lynch candidate before.

If JW doesn't deliver the goods in his next post, I'll hammer.

Intent to hammer Jason over Stubbs -- willing to vote anyone but Stubbs, essentially, when the only person he's given real reasoning on maybe being scum IS stubbs.

Yeah the more I turn it over the more I think the Creevy claim doesn't fit. Not lynching it today though.

This post is just... It should speak for itself.

Here is what I don't get... If Stubbs was roleblocked, why weren't Jason or I killed? Scum trying to introduce WIFOM and have town mislynch? Just throws me off.

Yeah this is rather suspicious. Leaving both claimed JOATs alive for the mindgames isn't hard to believe, but the uncountered 1-shot Doctor is somewhat. Maybe they were fishing for an unclaimed PR? That would presume that both JOAT claims are town, which I currently don't think is likely.

I don't like the wording here -- "which I currently don't think is likely." Very weasel word-y, leaving hismself open to declaring both JOATs town if the town swings that way, even as he assumes both town in his speculations.

Well my reads update is that JW and FFF are town due to claims and everyone else is in a big pile of cluelessness.

I guess I'll wait for Nachomamma8 to get caught up.

So he concludes JW is town but makes no comment on Stubbs? He's a "pile of cluelessness" along with everyone else, despite doubting his claims etc?

I also find the level of claims and partial claims a bit unbelievable in a game that is not role madness.

Theme games are often a bit more power-heavy than normal games.

I know I said I was going to vote JW, but the Stubbs claim seems wronger and wronger the more I think about it. It just doesn't fit, not in flavour nor with LnGrrrR's claim (which is much more believable). Besides, even though JW is being unhelpful, his claim is still reasonably believable.

Vote: StubbsKVM

Very strange hop when he finally switches over.

And then after Stubbs flipped, Toomai didn't update his reads at ALL, and I had to ask him about it. He provided some random null -> town etc thing, but it didn't actually make sense with the gamestate and is indicative of made-up reads imo.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Amrun, I agree with a lot of your points especially that the Stubbs-Toomai interactions look like scum-scum. Not updating his reads after the flip seems unlikely to come from town as well.

I'd be happy to lynch Toomai after more discussion takes place - especially from the JacobSavage slot.

[Nachomamma8]

You had him as null when you first came in. What changed that he is a strong scumread now?

Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?

He's a strong scumread at this point.

Why?

I've been rethinking my read on MSG/JacobSavage lately, and I'm feeling a lot better about that slot being town.

[Toomai]

Nacho, ffery thoughts on Toomai's deathwish?

Yeah because I totally implied that I

want

to be lynched. [/arcasmsay]

His content contains almost exclusively excuses, and his behavior is really strange around the Stubbs lynch and subsequent flip.

I'm more tired of the excuses than you are. In my five previously completed games I have had at least a gut feeling of who is scum throughout the game. This game has had no such luck; I currently have no true scumreads, and since the vast majority of discussion lately has been about me (and understandably so), I have no way to get any.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Toomai, what worries me is that several of us went through your games and commented on your meta. Amrun outlined a case for why you are scum. You haven't responded to any of those and you haven't pushed back on anybody in the game. I see some common elements from your other games in this one but the major difference has been that you haven't been responding to the attacks on you or pushing back. Is there a reason why you are playing differently here in that respect?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I've been rethinking my read on MSG/JacobSavage lately, and I'm feeling a lot better about that slot being town.

Why?

[fferyllt]

Nacho, ffery thoughts on Toomai's deathwish?

I've been trying to free up time to re-meta him to look for fatalism in other games. Fatalism qua fatalism is null, but sometimes I find tonal differences in town vs scum fatalism. I feel like I'm trying to make a scum-Toomai shadow puppet by guessing which differences in this game from known town games could be win-condition motivated.

If I don't get to it in the next hour, I will work on this tomorrow morning.

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, I disagree about Toomai. Mostly because while he remains possibly scum, his ISO has almost no useful information, which means even if he did flip scum, there's not much in terms of pinpointing the last scum there.

Why does that even matter? If he is scum, then good. Lynching scum always trumps associative tells.

Did you ever make your decisions on the basis of whether the flip will provide associative tells before as town?

MSG was getting townier, and if I had to guess I'd say the replace-out was towny. I want to see what JacobSavage does with the slot, as I've played with him a bit. My initial take is that scum would be more likely to come in with a plan of attack instead of kibitzing.

At the moment my lynch preference is Nacho.

Can you link the game where you played with JacobSavage?

The way Amrun initially phrased it made me think she was looking for an information lynch. Her extensive case on Toomai says otherwise. I like that wagon better with considering the points she's made; it kind of got lost in all his graphing.

I don't make lynch decisions aiming for associative tells. Sometimes I make them based on which wagon seems to have more town reads or a more pro-town logic process, but no on the associative tells. Hence my not agreeing with Amrun when I thought that's what she wanted. Heck, my Nacho lynch preference definitely doesn't stem from that, since I can see Nacho being scum with Toomai, fferyllt, or JacobSavage.

The easy way to find the games I've played with JS is to go to my topics and search for him in the results. Doing that nets NY 161, Mainstream, and Street Racers, the latter two both Large Themes. I've played with an alt of his as well, but I'm not sure whether he wants that account publicized, so I'll omit that unless he says otherwise.

WRT Stubbs, reading fferyllt's ISO reminded me of his self-hammer. At the risk of jumping into bad territory, it seems more likely that scum would self-hammer with at least one teammate positioned to get town cred. His wagon was Amrun, RachMarie, Toomai, MSG, and me. I think he was doomed by Day Three anyways, because scum couldn't afford to let all the PRs live, and once one flipped his claim would look lousier. So the question is, how did his self-hammer benefit his faction? I'd say ending discussion, but the LnGrrrR NK didn't remove a super-vocal player.

This aspect of the game does make me more inclined to lynch Toomai or MSG. We had no scum dead before then, and the difference in momentum with zero versus one scum can be major. Stubbs self-hammering should indicate that he and his teammates (assuming daytalk) thought his lynch was inevitable and/or that they'd get some town cred from it.

F-16, what's your take on the way the Stubbs wagon went down/ended?

[Toomai]

Is there a reason why you are playing differently here in that respect?

I don't know how to "play differently". I don't even know how I'm playing right now. As far as I'm aware I've been playing the same in all my games.

I can't respond to Amrun's case because it's all correct. The end conclusion of "Toomai is scum" is wrong, but the contents are all 100% correct and there's nothing I can argue about without looking worse.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, ffery thoughts on Toomai's deathwish?

I've been trying to free up time to re-meta him to look for fatalism in other games. Fatalism qua fatalism is null, but sometimes I find tonal differences in town vs scum fatalism. I feel like I'm trying to make a scum-Toomai shadow puppet by guessing which differences in this game from known town games could be win-condition motivated.

If I don't get to it in the next hour, I will work on this tomorrow morning.

I've reread his completed games, and I feel like I must be missing one, because I thought I remembered something more fatalistic sounding than his last posts in the We-Pick game. But, I guess not.

In that game, I feel like he kept arguing and explaining even when his fake claim kinda blew up in his face. This game day really does feel different in that respect.

849 - lost interest in the game, MSG bottomest read but being replaced.

871 - kind of a "go ahead" on his lynch, "distractional detriment to town"

874 - not giving up but won't defend. Holy shit, though, this is almost word for word

something I said

in a recent game. Thing is, my flip would confirm that the information from my night action that I knew would help solve the game was genuine and coming from a (weak) town PR. If the only way to have that information accepted was to be lynched first, I was resigned to it. But I was seriously pissed about it. Pissed at myself for getting into the bind, and pissed at the players who weren't listening because lol scum.

888 - laments lack of reads.

893 - this may be the most town-feeling post of the bunch. It happens sometimes that a person's totally town-motivated actions in a game more or less randomly wind up equally (or more strongly) looking like they could come from scum motivation due to how the game unfolds. I call it "wrong place, wrong time" syndrome.

I skimmed Amrun's case yesterday. Going to review it more closely now.

[RachMarie]

at Mod could we have an updated VC?

Yes Nacho I am looking at Toomai and the Oriole/MSG/Jacob slot.

If needed will switch over to Toomai to help prevent a NL, though I think Jacob is more likely to be scum of the two.



fery why are you so sold on both of them being town? Who do you think is scum then?


Amrun why Toomai over Jacob?

[fferyllt]

fery why are you so sold on both of them being town? Who do you think is scum then?

Both of who?

PA and Toomai are in my scumpile. And maybe Nacho. I feel strongest about PA.

I reread day 3 of Paradox Prime. I was resigned but spitting nails angry in that game. The similar post I pointed up from that game notwithstanding, I'm not getting anything like that vibe from Toomai.

[penguin_alien]

fferyllt, why do you think Stubbs self-hammered, given the situation at the time?

[fferyllt]

For the usual reasons. To stop discussion cold and to deprive town of a full bandwagon to analyze.

[fferyllt]

What is your theory?