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Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:13 am
by Titus
Green Crayons wrote:
Titus wrote:The NJAC wagon looks really similar to the Elle wagon. Odd. Usually when there's competing wagons, there's actually two wagons.

They weren't competing bandwagons, so that's why it is what it is. Elle-wagon happened, fizzeled, and then NJAC-wagon happened.


And no one complained that the NJAC wagon was staunchly similar to the Elle wagon?

I would look for scum amongst the four that rapidly switched. That kind of wagon speed does not usually happen without scum help.

VOTE: WhatSwag

Mr. I got no scumreads is a good a place as any to start.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:58 am
by Heartless
Titus wrote:The NJAC wagon looks really similar to the Elle wagon. Odd. Usually when there's competing wagons, there's actually two wagons.

scum were bussing and they found an opportunity to switch

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:59 am
by Heartless
swag is giving elle a run for her money

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:07 am
by Kaboose
I don't like Whatisswag, and I'm prodging right now, but I'm getting caught up on the couple of new pages and then I'll explain why I don't like Swag.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:37 am
by davesaz
Elle would have a really good reason to know there are two scum on that wagon if she's the third.

Jumping on LR with a "how do you know there are 3 scum" is the type of reaction you could expect from someone who either plays closed setups or didn't read the setup at the beginning. Scum who know how many there are on their team have less incentive to look in the OP and see that this is spelled out in the setup.

Next step: Look to see if elle has made any other wrong assumptions about the setup.

Brain Edit: Wait, she said she wasn't recruited, which in this game is a VT claim. How is it town to claim VT right at the top of day 1? It just makes scum's job easier.

VOTE: elleheathen

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:38 am
by Green Crayons
@Titus:
there were four or five slots that were inactive during both the elle-wagon and NJAC-wagon. I'm not surprised there was a large overlap in the wagon compositions, as elle was a pretty popular suspect and NJAC was necessary to avoid a NL. Everyone on the NJAC wagon, except for Kaboose, voted NJAC on the day of the deadline.

-----

@Heartless:
From about Page 26 onwards, elle's town posting outweighs her suspicious pre-Page 26 posting.

Y/N/M?

-----

@swag:
I doubt Cheetory was killed because he was at some pursuing suspicions against any particular player. In retrospect, his detached, persistent questions do make him look like a possible mason candidate, so I'm guessing that's why he was targeted.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:39 am
by Green Crayons
@dave:

davesaz wrote:Brain Edit: Wait, she said she wasn't recruited, which in this game is a VT claim. How is it town to claim VT right at the top of day 1? It just makes scum's job easier.

I'm not following what you are saying.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:41 am
by davesaz
EBWOP: day 2

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:45 am
by Green Crayons
I got you on that.

I still don't follow what you are saying. Walk me through the scum mindset of claiming to have not been recruited - if elle is scum, then she's not making scum's job any easier to say "hey I didn't get recruited."

Mulling your bit about the 3 scum mixup.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:49 am
by davesaz
Green Crayons wrote:
@dave:

davesaz wrote:Brain Edit: Wait, she said she wasn't recruited, which in this game is a VT claim. How is it town to claim VT right at the top of day 1? It just makes scum's job easier.

I'm not following what you are saying.

It is a VT claim to say you're not recruited. VT claims in a mason game narrow down the range of players who might be mason, and scum need to identify masons to eliminate them before LYLO (assuming the game gets that far). There is no good town motivation to claim, especially this early in the day.

There are scum reasons for doing it, in particular to fish for mason reactions like "how do you know anyone was recruited". Masons should keep their mouths shut BTW.

Pedit: ok, you got the 1st paragraph, 2nd paragraph is the scum motivation

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:56 am
by davesaz
Regarding Cheetory as the NK, my thought on that is that scum thought he's the most town, and if masons were going for a confirmed townie they want to kill him off before he can be confirmed. That scenario is exactly what happened in my previous game in this setup. Difference being, in that game the masons recruited the same person that scum killed resulting in a dead recruited mason.

Another tip from that game, speculating on who Cheetory's partner is, and on who (if anyone) was recruited, just helps scum. Town needs to steer totally away from that subject and hunt scum as though the masons are not here at all. You can look for the associations but try to make a case without using them.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:13 am
by Heartless
Green Crayons wrote:@Heartless: From about Page 26 onwards, elle's town posting outweighs her suspicious pre-Page 26 posting.

Y/N/M?

Antihero said this morning he thought elle's posting today was really scummy. Specifically, throwing out the generalization of "there are 2 scum on this wagon" without naming names. As for this page 26 "town" posting, I'll be the judge of that.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:27 am
by davesaz
I also noticed a change in elle's posting. She could have twigged to what was causing people to scum read her and adapted. If the posts in the middle look more town but both ends are scummy, it's a strong indicator to me that the underlying play is scum.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:41 am
by Grib
dave, how do you feel about elle's multiple attempts at buddying you? I can't recall if I ever asked.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:07 am
by Heartless
davesaz wrote:I also noticed a change in elle's posting. She could have twigged to what was causing people to scum read her and adapted. If the posts in the middle look more town but both ends are scummy, it's a strong indicator to me that the underlying play is scum.


ok gc, why are you voting dave?

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:17 am
by davesaz
Grib wrote:dave, how do you feel about elle's multiple attempts at buddying you? I can't recall if I ever asked.

Not comfortable at all. She even asked me how I felt, to which I replied could be either scum or town. I know that was noncommital, it was intended to draw out more discussion which could either confirm the discomfort or explain it.

I would have sworn I'd replied to this question before, but can't find it. If it was asked I must have missed it.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:06 am
by Kaboose
I keep seeing things from Swag that are setting off a bell in my head as manufactured town things. As well as just things that don't add up. Here are some examples:

Whatisswag wrote:I think we should hypoclaim recruiting mason and who we will target n1

Whatisswag wrote:Shit. i just forgot there are masons. But whatever.

Second post in the game he's wanting to hypoclaim recruiting masons. Then one of his more recent posts he claims he forgot there were masons in the game. Now I know that's quite a gap, but he came in to the game with a plan of some sort or else why even bring up the hypoclaim? So how do you actually forget there are masons? Not to mention Swag was the one trying to direct the mason's recruiting as well before forgetting about them.

Whatisswag wrote:There is a really weird interaction between NJAC and Grib, just like the interaction between elle and LR. If one turns out scum, I expect the other one to be scum too.

Whatisswag wrote:Ok, Grib and NJAC probably not scum team

So here he says Grib and NJAC are most likely a team if one flips scum. Then goes back and says they're probably not a team. So I guess the question now is what Swag thinks of Grib? I think Grib is town. But NJAC flipped town, and Swag thought they weren't a team, so it makes me wonder if he thinks Grib is scum? So I guess Swag I'm asking what your read on Grib is now that you have the information you have on NJAC?

Whatisswag wrote:Btw, dave is probably going to get killed tonight.

Why would you guess at this? Like this is what seems like the manufactured town slip. A scenario that popped in my head was Swag saying this, and then NKing someone else to try and show us he has no clue who is dying at night. That was the only thing I saw when I read this was scum trying to misdirect, suggesting one death so that when another happened you've got "proof" you might not be scum or something.

Whatisswag wrote:If NJAC is scum, I will discuss this another time.

If NJAC is town,

I wonder if scum purposely moved the wagon off elle to NJAC. (If this is the case, all fingers will point at Kaboose)

I wonder which of the other lurkers are scum.

Then this post threw me a bit too. Now I'm a realistic thinker, and from experience I've learned that very few times the D1 lynch doesn't hit a town member. So I can understand there's still something left to figure out here even after the hammer. But I love how he casually points to me if NJAC flipped town. There was no one under the gun as far as "If NJAC flips town, I bet such and such and such and such are partners!" Now earlier there was the Grib and NJAC comment, but he fell off that and declared them probably not a team in between that comment and the flip. However, he goes and tells us that if NJAC flips town all fingers point at me! This just looks to me like someone who knew how the flip was going. Like a slight slip not to call out possible partners because there were none, but to go ahead and lay some bait for the next lynch.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:30 am
by Green Crayons
@Heartless:

Heartless wrote:ok gc, why are you voting dave?

I ISO'd my four suspicions from yesterday (elle, dave, Ranger, Fairies/Picard), and picked the one that bothered me the most.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:01 am
by elleheathen
Whatisswag wrote:
elleheathen wrote:
Lone Ranger wrote:
There may be. There are 11 players left in the game and three scum. You've narrowed down the pool to six players and then claimed that there are at least two scum in there. First off, what's the point?

What the point of sharing my thoughts? Really?
Maybe to share my thinking.
Maybe to see how people react to my thinking.
Maybe to see who agrees/disagrees and why or why not.

Lone Ranger wrote:
Secondly, your number is arbitrary - NJAC was a deadline lurker lynch that no one opposed.

Exactly the type of lynch scum loves. Deadline lynches with no need for reasoning.

And true, I wouldn't have voted it but I wasn't opposed to it, either - because NJAC's constant prod dodging was irritating. Doesn't mean that I don't think scum wouldn't have taken advantage of it.


Why were you not on it?


NJAC. First to confirm. 2/4, btw.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:23 am
by elleheathen
Titus wrote:The NJAC wagon looks really similar to the Elle wagon. Odd. Usually when there's competing wagons, there's actually two wagons.

Right?

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:23 am
by elleheathen
Green Crayons wrote:
Titus wrote:The NJAC wagon looks really similar to the Elle wagon. Odd. Usually when there's competing wagons, there's actually two wagons.

They weren't competing bandwagons, so that's why it is what it is. Elle-wagon happened, fizzeled, and then NJAC-wagon happened.

'Fizzled'
lol.
I think I was just getting paranoid in your case, though.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:26 am
by elleheathen
Titus wrote:
Green Crayons wrote:
Titus wrote:The NJAC wagon looks really similar to the Elle wagon. Odd. Usually when there's competing wagons, there's actually two wagons.

They weren't competing bandwagons, so that's why it is what it is. Elle-wagon happened, fizzeled, and then NJAC-wagon happened.


And no one complained that the NJAC wagon was staunchly similar to the Elle wagon?

I would look for scum amongst the four that rapidly switched. That kind of wagon speed does not usually happen without scum help.


There was nothing really 'rapid' about it but is
is
part of why I feel like there are at least two scum on that wagon.

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:40 am
by elleheathen
davesaz wrote:
Green Crayons wrote:
@dave:

davesaz wrote:Brain Edit: Wait, she said she wasn't recruited, which in this game is a VT claim. How is it town to claim VT right at the top of day 1? It just makes scum's job easier.

I'm not following what you are saying.

It is a VT claim to say you're not recruited. VT claims in a mason game narrow down the range of players who might be mason, and scum need to identify masons to eliminate them before LYLO (assuming the game gets that far). There is no good town motivation to claim, especially this early in the day.

There are scum reasons for doing it, in particular to fish for mason reactions like "how do you know anyone was recruited". Masons should keep their mouths shut BTW.


BS. Masons know not to say anything.

What I'm pointing out with it is that I think they would have recruited between:

Me. LR. GC. Grib. davesaz.

Since I wasn't, that leaves the other 4. And I'm pretty damn sure scum is in there.

I want scum to know I wasn't recruited. Because it increases the likelihood that they WERE.

And I get a warm feeling inside when I imagine them worrying about it, wondering when it'll come out, waiting, waiting.

:]

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:14 am
by Heartless
alright let's have a looky loo at what happened day 1...

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:15 am
by Heartless
btw, hi titus, it's nice to see you not acknowledge my existence