Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[skitter30]

okay then prove me wrong about this vote

VOTE: ofrhz

also has drixx claimed already

Who is the first line talking to? Ofrzh is ridiculously obvtown and I absolutely do not support a lynch on him today.

[Mathdino]

You guys are utterly failing to do what I asked

Which is show me don't tell me where your reads are coming from

Who the fuck is scum in a world where oxy and NSG are both town skitter

[skitter30]

If you want specific posts you're going to have to wait till I get home in like six hours because I think mobile is awful and I'm not going to spend time trying to find posts on my phone.

ofrzh bleeds town and that's like the one read I'm very confident on. probably not you or scioness. I'm gut-town on pin but I'm not confident on it.

If we take out oxy and nsg then ruru and drixx and maaaaaaaybe pin but I don't really feel it. But I don't feel good about taking out oxy and nsg.

And ruru/drixx is a weird pair cuz ruru empty-voted drixx for l-1, apparently to pressure him to post.

Oxy/pin is never a thing. Oxy/scioness isn't a thing. I don't think scioness/ruru works, and neither does ruru/eth0s.

[Scioness Sajj]

Oxy 468 he also just jumped on counter wagon for pressure 797
Ruru 830, 850
Pin has recently voted skitter and he doesn't want to vote ruru because I'm his top scumread (by poe because oxy v me, couldn't be town for some reason). He also voted skitter because she has mantioned possible sfot claim posts from Oxy, when he himself just explained that he had town read on eth0s becuase he thought eth0s was scummy becuase he was pr investiagative 851 765
Skitter had sort of weird vote on NSG, but I think you have seen that already.

[Oxy]

Welcome, Mathdino.
Just last night I went through eth0s and came out liking his catch-up. I'm still wrapping my head around you individually, but I think this direction is really pro town.

A lot happened this game. Here's what I think is important to convey to you: Ofrhz and Ruru have been bleeding town all game, and I'll get you some posts to demonstrate that shortly. Skitter was playing very townie, and has since... stopped. Younger me said that would be a scum claim from her, and I think I agree with younger me. He was a smart guy.

readlist:

Town: Ofrhz, Ruru
Mostly town: Mathdino, Scioness Sajj, NSG
Scum lean by PoE, null by play: Drixx, Pinturicchio
Scum lean by play:Skitter30

I just read Mathdino's article about the power of sheeping reads, and I'm choosing to sheep his NSG read here since I currently still have a null read on her.

[Oxy]

oops. I knew I was forgetting something.
VOTE: Skitter30

[Mathdino]

I just read Mathdino's article about the power of sheeping reads, and I'm choosing to sheep his NSG read here since I currently still have a null read on her.

Wow this really appeals to me

Inb4 LAMIST lol

I could get down with the above reads list if I agree with the ruru and ofhrsxy5efgz read

I'm currently in turn sheeping the pintu read

Skitter scum seems consistent yeah

[Drixx]

If you want specific posts you're going to have to wait till I get home in like six hours because I think mobile is awful and I'm not going to spend time trying to find posts on my phone.

ofrzh bleeds town and that's like the one read I'm very confident on. probably not you or scioness. I'm gut-town on pin but I'm not confident on it.

If we take out oxy and nsg then ruru and drixx and maaaaaaaybe pin but I don't really feel it. But I don't feel good about taking out oxy and nsg.

And ruru/drixx is a weird pair cuz ruru empty-voted drixx for l-1, apparently to pressure him to post.

Oxy/pin is never a thing. Oxy/scioness isn't a thing. I don't think scioness/ruru works, and neither does ruru/eth0s.

This seems like a REALLY thorough understanding of gamestate for day one. Can you tell me who you think CAN be paired? Can you explain that and maybe explain a little better why these pairs don't work?

[Oxy]

Towny Ofrhz posts

These three should be read together.

Spoiler:

Oh what my last post didn’t take

I don’t think lurking is a scum tell and the game just opened so wanting to hear from people who’ve been “afk for a long time”? That’s just grasping at straws

My b, I read afk for long instead of afk for longer time

I asked because your post 12 was suspicious of ruru and I noticed that not only did you not vote in that post, but that you haven't voted at all.

I tried to vote ruru earlier to get her to explain her vote but the post didn’t go through. By the time I noticed, both you and Sajj had a vote on her and ruru responded too.

@sajj, Your vote didn’t seem like a random vote so I’m wondering why you would single me out for not doing rvs.

Also are we even in rvs? Genuine question

Wall post, but very townie

Spoiler:

I fail to see hypocrisy in my behavior. In 16 you say you don't have opinion on RVS, so I asked you why not vote. And then you have switched it around by saying I'm suspecting (?) you for something I did myself but that's not the case. I didn't ask you why you have moved past RVS, and I couldn't know that you did becuase you didn't cast a vote nor mentioned it.

In my first post, I was responding to something someone else had said. Soon after, in my second post, 17, I was more interested in following up with what ruru posted instead of placing a random vote. At this point, I didn't think anything ruru said was scummy, so I didn't vote for her. I guess I could have also followed up with a vote on a random person, but I didn't and don't really have a reason why. I didn't think too much about it.

I didn't realize you were asking me this question bc I said I didn't have an opinion on RVS. I thought you were only asking me bc I had posted but didn't throw out a random vote.

You also posted this, though, which reads like an absolute statement to me:

Oh what my last post didn’t take

I don’t think lurking is a scum tell and the game just opened so wanting to hear from people who’ve been “afk for a long time”? That’s just grasping at straws

Saying "I don't think lurking is a scum tell

when

the game just opened [...]" would be a bit of a different story to me.

You're harping on me for using the word "and" instead of "when?" I thought my meaning was obvious given the context of the rest of my post/sentence. I can kinda see where your confusion is coming from, but it still feels like too much of a stretch, and I still think you were building a strawman here.

[...]

Still, I don't really see it as an attempt by ruru to make herself look townie

, and I disagree with Oxy's townreading her for it. I figured it was a reaction test or something but that would have fallen apart by now, it seems. There's not much info to work with yet.

VOTE: WestenVOTE:
Post.

At first glance it look to me like forced lamist attepmpt.

*ding ding ding*

@eth0s - what made you change your mind about ruru's motivations between these two posts?

More townie individual posts

Spoiler:

He is a scumhunter which gets respect from me. I think he seems a little more capable than he's leading on. I would say null but overall I have a townie gutread on him.

I'm asking bc he comes across as trying hard to be town read. His lamisty posts earlier don't factor into your initial impressions?

You mean I come off as smarter the this (what is this?)?

Forgive me because this is going to sound blunt, but the question you asked in 150 was a stupid question. It's possible for people to read someone's posts and still walk away undecided about a slot. Based on what you've previously posted, I think you know enough about the game and are smart enough to know that. So I think post 150 was out of character.

Additionally, I don't like it when people ask things like "so you have put all this effort in and came out with nothing because?" because it discourages people from trying. Intent is a large part of this game, which includes trying to scumhunt.

Example being me having to make a trade with him just now. My reads for an answer to his to my question. I can quote examples if you want more. The 1v1 felt pretty one-sided to me though.

Interesting. I didn't pick up on this earlier, but i'm going to go back and read with this in mind once I get off work.

I did spend most of my game time yesterday rereading Oxy vs Sajj and newbie 1859.

You mean 1851?
It's hard to metaread Sajj, since she's never played as town before. It's hard to tell whether she's playing as town or has adjusted her scum playstyle in this game. One takeaway is that she never went off at another player for this long in 1851. In general, I don't think scum would stick their necks out this much on day 1, which is why Oxy = town = Sajj

Do you deny posting ideas like those described in this post? If so, I'll find the quotes.
The posts DO exist. You wrote them, so I'm pretty sure you KNOW they exist. If you're not denying that you had ideas of those sorts, then please don't send me to do busy work. Not only would that be scummy (giving me busy work to tire me out and muddy this thread with extraneous posts would be scum motivated), but it's also just plain disrespectful of my time.

To be fair, most of those posts were "omg wtf is happening in this game." Do you think it's worth characterizing someone by cherrypicking a few of posts that are slightly more thought out out of 400+ posts in that thread? (I'm not asking you to find these posts)

[...] Yet you are describing me from my first game as this mastermind scum player, because people at the end said that I played well. You didn't check for yourself.

That's a hearesay, you should not ever try to pass something like that as an arguemnt.

I know that you are tunneling me so everything that 'proves' your theory is good enough, but that's not how you will catch scum.

Are you suggesting Oxy could be lying when he said he thought you won 1851? Stretch.

[...] 1). In 138 Oxy on his own decides to mention that he has read my iso but came up with nothing.

I didn't asked for it, he just thought he would mention it.

This is not true. You asked him for his reads in 133

[...] I already convinced myself that Oxy is scum and that his partner is either ruru or ofrhz because of the early towncred to both.

Early on, skitter also said me and ruru were slightly town (post 87). By this line of reasoning, would she also partnered with one of us?

That's where I stopped going through his iso just now, but I can find more if you don't think these exude town.

[Mathdino]

i guess i'm not seeing it as strongly but ok

i think the problem this game and why you guys haven't gotten a lynch yet

is a lot of you are falling for the "townread anyone who can consistently output long non-braindead posts"

so the game shifted toward NSG when she went inactive and wasn't outputting those posts, and it's starting to sound like drixx's playstyle was out of touch with the standard for this game

that's not to say the drixx scumreads aren't correct, just that D1 is often a crapshoot and almost all D1 wagons are charisma-based or playstyle-based

what was the original content that skitter posted that was supposedly very townie? i'll take a look at that

[Oxy]

So it's hard for me to see any of her posts in exactly the same super townie way that I was earlier, but posts 44 -297 in her iso are where I felt she was playing a really pro-town game. Someone would make a statement such as, "because of a, b" and Skitter would moderate the certainty of that statement. Even in cases where her I could verify that her conclusions were wrong (e.g, oxy is scum), her analysis was reasonable from a town perspective, and her actions were both consistent with that gameplay and pro-town.

[Oxy]

Also, I town read those ofrhz as much for the tone than the content. The first set of three is all about his tone.

In the second spoiler, after quote 1, it's his tone while going through his thought process
Second spoiler, after quote 2, it's the frustration with semantics rather than caught scum

third spoiler is a mixture of what you would call "not braindead" and tone.

[Mathdino]

wax me a spicy narrative about why drixx got run up in the first place and why that wagon dissolved

[Oxy]

I was town reading Ofrhz, Ruru, and skitter. We had three nearly entirely inactive players. I wanted to pressure any of them, or my scumread of the time, Sajj. Ofrhz was voting Drixx, Ruru was voting eth0s. I joined Ruru on eth0s because at the time I believed he was more likely to respond to pressure than Drixx, and I made the following post:

Okay, team town (Ruru, Ofrhz, Skitter30), I think it would behoove us to coordinate our pressure. My preference for targets would be, in order, Eth0s, Drixx, Sajj, NSG. That's not in order of scumminess, but rather of priority. I would be happy with any of them! Ofrhz seems to prefer drixx. Ruru and I are already on Eth0s.

Plan? I think we should put them at L-1, give them 24 hours to post something that isn't garbage, and then hammer them if they don't. End of day is not really all that far away, and right now I'm worried that we're going to disperse to our own corners and sit on our thumbs.

Thoughts?

P.S. @Pinturicchio I'm not giving you a team jersey yet, but you can drop the hammer if/when it becomes appropriate.

Skitter30 put a pressure vote on Drixx. I followed it and asked Ruru to join us. She did, making it L-1. Skitter then unvoted within a few minutes of it reaching L-1 and we began arguing over whether or not I and the wagon on Drixx were scummy.

[Mathdino]

lol so what you're telling me is that you, the person i'm townreading

and ruru and ofrhar;zhsiehsz who apparently everyone else is hardtownreading

were the drivers of the drixx wagon

and skitter30 believed it was thus a sketchy scum motivated wagon?

if i completely buy into your clearly biased narrative

there's at least 1 scum in {skitter, Drixx} by PoE and wagon comp, gg

[Oxy]

Townie Ruru posts
The thought processes and frustrations only make sense coming from town who is accustomed to a different meta, and seems like a really oddball style to go for as scum.

Spoiler:

You're harping on me for using the word "and" instead of "when?" I thought my meaning was obvious given the context of the rest of my post/sentence. I can kinda see where your confusion is coming from, but it still feels like too much of a stretch, and I still think you were building a strawman here.

Based on this and other responses I don't find you particularly scummy, not enough to leave my vote overnight.

UNVOTE: ofrhz

P-edit @ruru That post screams town. You're clearly not very familiar with this site's meta. Presumably in shorter time period games it's not safe to leave a vote overnight if you aren't confident because a wagon and a quick hammer/forced claim might occur before you return. Scum is usually more cautious about changing votes or not voting because they don't want to unnecessarily bring attention to themselves. Would I take this read to Lylo without reevaluation? No. Would I lynch you D1? Never. Heck, even asking why I townread you deserves a very very light town read.
Would choose VT because scumhunting is the most fascinating part of this game by a mile.

I think it is better not to say things like this even if they're true, because it could make it very easy to stall the game. Can we talk about whether or not we want to see wagons instead of whether or not we want to see lynches?

In post 349, ofrhz wrote:
In post 343, ruru wrote:
I don't think she leans town but I do think a wagon on the other 3 neutrals is more likely to give useful information at this time.

like arghhhhh I can't let this go

You said in 321: "I think it is likely a TvT because I think Oxy is pretty towny and SS is something like 3/4ths town." Earlier, I wasn't asking why you aren't voting Scioness Sajj, I just want to know why you determined this was likely town v town and SS is "3/4ths town" (isn't 3/4ths town the same as "leans town?"), since earlier you said you couldn't read her.


There are 8 other players, 6 of whom are town; that's where 3/4ths came from. And although I don't have a read on her in isolation, I suspect it is actually more than 3/4ths for her (and the other neutral reads) to be town, because I find two players fairly scummy.

Emphasis mine:

I was thinking about moving my vote after the weekend passed because it was looking like we wouldn't get anything from eth0s either way, but we still have a week so I'm willing to try once more.

About the priority list, I think maybe it should not be decided now. If we decide now, anyone low or absent from the list will not feel any pressure.

Not particularly related to priority order, I would really like to see NSG post reads today.

This comes after eth0s analyzes the first page of the thread and just the first page with no additional comment:

?????

In post 573, Oxy wrote:
@ruru can you talk to me about skitter some more please


I feel like pressuring Drixx was significantly +EV and I don't like that she was so against it when, from a town POV, it should be clear that nobody was actually going to lynch Drixx in 24 hours (which I was trying not to say, but I guess I will say it now since the strategy is pretty much done).

The longer he has votes on him the more likely we are to get information either from him or from people's reactions to the wagon. If he's town and scum makes the mistake of hammering him then we found scum, and I don't believe a town player who wants to win would ever hammer given the context of the wagon. I think the pro-town play would be to unvote closer to the deadline, not to do it immediately, and I feel like a town player should be able to figure that out I guess rather than make some arguments about why lynching him in 24 hours would be wrong.

In post 638, skitter30 wrote:
Also if it's me/drixx, scum!me has no reason to pick drixx to vote out of {scioness/nsg/drixx/eth0s} there if that was the proposed plan. I could very easily have voted eth0s; there were two votes there and I could've just let the 24-hour lynch thing happen without involving partner!drixx in it at all to get a mislynch and let the day end fast. Like if I was scum with drixx there's no reason for me not to just support the plan on anyone not my partner without starting all of this in the first place.


I'm not sure I agree that there is no benefit to scum!skitter in choosing scum!Drixx (and I mentioned some of the benefits in my post), but I still need to think a bit more on whether or not scum!skitter would actually do it. And I really don't think it's an alternative to "just let the 24-hour lynch thing happen [...] to get a mislynch and let the day end fast". I find it really hard to imagine a universe where that actually happens, and actively pushing it after 24h would make you look extremely scummy.

Also, I agree that Oxy's vote on pin was weirdly timed, but I feel like it was not necessarily out of character.

Again, speaking about pressuring drixx:

The play that could have been made, but wasn't, depends on players collectively bluffing without revealing that they are bluffing.

For the second question, the bluff is that town is willing to carry through with the lynch.

[Oxy]

I think I would describe myself as actively pushing the wagon, Ruru as actively joining me on that wagon and at least mostly on board with what I was proposing, Ofrhz as perhaps less sold on the idea, but not put off by it enough to unvote, and skitter as "spooked."

[Oxy]

I think Skitter would tell you that she thought I was intending to lynch Drixx regardless of whether or not he even logged into the site in the next 24 hours (not a sure thing for him, as we have found), and in her defense, a reasonable person could have come to that conclusion. That said, I think that same reasonable person would start to reevaluate after our long discussion that happened after.

[ofrhz]

hi, since a lot of people are townreading me, I'm going to let them find posts as to why I'm town.

I need either Oxy or Mathdino to ELI5 (literally, fucking 5) why skitter is scum. Sorry if you feel like you're repeating yourself.

For the record, my initial vote on Drixx was in response to his post, which amounted to character assassination at first glance. By the time I checked the game again, skitter had already unvoted, but I don't think that's scummy by itself because the

perceived

threat of a lolhammer was there.

[ofrhz]

third spoiler is a mixture of what you would call "

not braindead

" and tone.

lmao thanks

[ofrhz]

btw I'm not hard townreading ruru. I'm just not scum leaning her anymore

[Mathdino]

I need either Oxy or Mathdino to ELI5 (literally, fucking 5) why skitter is scum. Sorry if you feel like you're repeating yourself.

my pleasure

i have a good track record of reading NSG, and she's likely town

the posts that everyone thinks are scum-indicative about oxy are literally town-indicative things that scum don't say

i believe process of elimination is the strongest tool for catching scum

my PoE pool is then

{Scioness, skitter30, ruru, ofwheuotahxfzsohtez, Drixx}

i THINK i'm seeing a deeper level of analysis in scioness's game here than in her scumgame and i'm clearly not getting a scioness lynch today even if she's scum anyway

ruru and you are apparently obvtown to my townread. i agree on ruru, somewhat less agree on you.

so keeping in mind that one of these townreads is probably wrong, there's almost certainly scum in {skitter30, Drixx}. if none of these townreads are wrong, the scumteam is literally skitter30/Drixx, which I haven't seen anyone rule out.

Edit: okay well i guess i'm townreading ruru harder than you are now

[ofrhz]

The thought processes and frustrations only make sense coming from town who is accustomed to a different meta

, and seems like a really oddball style to go for as scum.

ruru said earlier she's never played mafia anywhere else, only read the games

[ofrhz]

hey, that was pretty well ELI5'd. thanks

[ofrhz]

nope, wait you forgot about pin.