Open 719: Stack The Deck! (D4)

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

The pool of (Judge/Worst/Wisdom/Math) wins us the game 100% of the time

This makes me think it's Maria+the worst 99% of the time. I'm fairly confident Wisdom is town here, and I'm dead certain Dino is town from his posts on the last couple of pages alone. I also know my own alignment, so applying the 1 in 3 (only this is 1 in 4) theory.

Unless, of course, Maria means these 4 are fully capable of winning the game 100% of the time, in which case I'd still be sus of her bc she's always been up for my lynch.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I'm prob gonna end up hammering this and when it flips town the vig shoots judge wisdom or math

This worries me though. It's as if Maria knows the worst will flip town.

THIS is where I want to lynch today. For real.

VOTE: MariaR

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I'm prob gonna end up hammering this and when it flips town the vig shoots judge wisdom or math

fantastic, this is a scumclaim on TW townflip

Glad to see I wasn't the only one.

[Mathdino]

the worst/Maria is viable
the worst/Duck is viable
the worst/Espeonage is viable

Maria is viable with... who? UglyDuck?

the worst is 100% the logical lynch today, JJD. The only other possible contender for original goon is UglyDuck.

If TW actually flips town, we just lynch Maria tomorrow, no problem.

Also we should stop forcing claims plsthx

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

imagine if esp and maria played town like town

Agree on Esp, but Maria's not Town.

Goons: Beef+Ugly Duck
Traitor: Maria

I take back what I said about Maria voting Beefster. Maria isn't afraid of bussing IIRC, and knowing the 2 main scum are not that experienced she would love to get a hold on the NK herself.

I can see Beef+Ugly Duck picking "everything in the arsenal" too. This means tw's claim is legit and we have an additional PR (and I think I know who that might be).

Ugly calling for his own lynch lines up with the theory, actually. Both him and previouslt Beef would want to hand the NK over to Maria. I don't see him claiming VT as VT here after how Esp did it and how we responded to it.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

And assuming for a second that the worst is actually town and not the other goon,

01.

the worst

02. Nauci
05. brassherald
07.

Espeonage

08.

MariaR

09.

Wisdom

10. UglyDuck
11.

Mathdino

12.

Judge Joseph Dredd

People that don't select the rolecop then kill the IC striked.

People that don't select the rolecop AND ANOTHER MOD and THEN KILL THE IC now striked.

From TW's point of view, one of {Nauci, brass, Duck} should be literal confscum.
Nauci is pretty obviously town for many reasons. He's townreading her.
brass is town by associations, he agrees with that.

does anyone disagree with this analysis btw?

I'm not sure about everyone but here are my thought:

1- I know I wouldn't shoot the IC knowing there's at least one other PR out there
2- I know you wouldn't pick Role Cop to begin with
3- I know Wisdom wouldn't shoot the IC either


Gosh! This game is so confusing and I'm starting to sound like ranmaru!!!

It could still be the worst+Ugly Duck and the worst is the better of the two so UD wants him to take over! This explains why tw won't rouch UD earlier and why UD wants to get lynched over tw and is telling the Vig to shoot anyone but tw.

[Wisdom]

why does he do that instead of lolhammering the goon cop

[Wisdom]

its tw/duck, yes.

[Mathdino]

imagine if esp and maria played town like town

Agree on Esp, but Maria's not Town.

Goons: Beef+Ugly Duck
Traitor: Maria

I take back what I said about Maria voting Beefster. Maria isn't afraid of bussing IIRC, and knowing the 2 main scum are not that experienced she would love to get a hold on the NK herself.

I can see Beef+Ugly Duck picking "everything in the arsenal" too. This means tw's claim is legit and we have an additional PR (and I think I know who that might be).

Ugly calling for his own lynch lines up with the theory, actually. Both him and previouslt Beef would want to hand the NK over to Maria. I don't see him claiming VT as VT here after how Esp did it and how we responded to it.

oh god maria is gonna respond to this and it's not gonna be pretty
look here's the deal
if beef/uglyduck picked "everything in the arsenal" then the worst's goon cop is probably useless anyway
secondly STOP OPENLY PR HUNTING PLEASE
thirdly, this idea that everyone wants maria to have the NK is ridiculous, seeing as
- maria is not a gamethrower, she's not going to bus all her buddies just to control the kill
- the team wouldn't even know maria is the traitor in this scenario, so wtf???

if there's a 2nd mod that scum took, it's likely recruit traitor 90% of the time

we're lynching the worst, and shooting uglyduck on TW townflip
reevaluate tomorrow, but there MUST be the original goon between those two

[Wisdom]

we're lynching the worst, and shooting uglyduck on TW townflip
reevaluate tomorrow, but there MUST be the original goon between those two

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Tracker townclears people too hard

Tracker doesn't clear anything if traitor is recruited. If traitor mis not recruited tracker only clears VTs from being the remaining main scum member. They do clear PRs I presume, but you're working under the assumption there are no more PRs other than the Vig, so nobody else went anywhere.

[brassherald]

Okay, we need to stop the Speculation on the setup. We know for a fact that there are at least 3 PRs, all else is pure speculation.

[Wisdom]

you dont say

[Mathdino]

Tracker townclears people too hard

Tracker doesn't clear anything if traitor is recruited. If traitor mis not recruited tracker only clears VTs from being the remaining main scum member. They do clear PRs I presume, but you're working under the assumption there are no more PRs other than the Vig, so nobody else went anywhere.

that's not the point

espeonage openly thought you were the vig

hardclaiming a tracker inno on you could potentially be suicide

both a tracker and a roleblocker claim can go awry

goon cop is the optimal claim for scum in this setup

which is why TW made that claim

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

OK.. I guess it's still best to know what tw flips

VOTE: the worst

If he's fakecaliming we nail the second mafioso. If he's telling the truth we lose another VT because that confirms scum picked at least 2 modifications and thus very likely have no "goons"

[brassherald]

you dont say

Sometimes the obvious needs to be said.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Vig should definitely shoot between he two claimed VTs for safety. That's Espeonage/Ugly Duck (and if it was up to me I'd shoot Ugly Duck)

[Wisdom]

Yes, definitely ugly regardless of tw flip

[Mathdino]

what happened to 100% confidence on espeonage?

the hammer's mine btw, i'm just waiting on nauci

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

what happened to 100% confidence on espeonage?

Do I sound like I got the game all figured out?? I concede that Espeo can be that anti-town as town, and specifically in this very setup.

[Nauci]

VOTE: UglyDuck

Welcome back

I'm having a really hard time taking that claim even half seriously

Why JJD

And I'm having hard tome seeing how tw's claim nakes you switch your vote from Espeonage to UglyDuck!

No chance of rolecop+daytalk.

Why?

In fact, I'd need a theoretical run down of all possibilities and whey they don't make sense. In my world, daychat+BP+RC makes sense because GC becomes useless, vig becomes 66% useless, RB becomes 33% useless and Tracker becomes 33% useless.

This is basically how A50 approached that game you were modding, and if you think the worst is scum and used his knowledge from that game then it doesn't make sense for him to pick only 1 modification, and it becomes far more risky to claim here.

On the other hand, tw didn't really have much room left to hide being @L-1 with intent stated.

either that or hes trying to out pr(s) before he dies

If I was scum and trying to out the PRs I'd be claiming VIG! Whether they pick one modifier (know there's no other PT than the vig now), 2 modifications or even 3 modifications, the only one that both counts and they know exists is the vig. Tracker maybe next on the list of priorities if they did pick 2 or 3. GC either doesn't exist, or is harmless.

it doesn't matter if he knows or not

he thought that the worst was claiming goon when really he was claiming goon cop

this indicates that he was completely unaware of the power roles/modifications in the first place

or that he was playing dumb

am reading, 10 min pls

[Nauci]

Oh god I forgot I quoted all of those

[Nauci]

VOTE: UglyDuck

Welcome back

I'm having a really hard time taking that claim even half seriously

Why JJD

And I'm having hard tome seeing how tw's claim nakes you switch your vote from Espeonage to UglyDuck!

I switched to UD because he had made his first post in like 6 days so I could finally interact with him again

No chance of rolecop+daytalk.

Why?

In fact, I'd need a theoretical run down of all possibilities and whey they don't make sense. In my world, daychat+BP+RC makes sense because GC becomes useless, vig becomes 66% useless, RB becomes 33% useless and Tracker becomes 33% useless.

This is basically how A50 approached that game you were modding, and if you think the worst is scum and used his knowledge from that game then it doesn't make sense for him to pick only 1 modification, and it becomes far more risky to claim here.

On the other hand, tw didn't really have much room left to hide being @L-1 with intent stated.

Vig is never useless. If the target doesn't die, then it functions like a cop because only scum have BP. I'm sorry but after this post I'm not trusting any of your reads.

RB/Tracker are also not "33% useless" and can be used to confirm lots of stuff. And also they can CC bluffs. This was just a ridiculous speculation.

GC is the only claim that's almost 100% safe to make because he knows exactly who wouldn't get dinged already. It can only break if someone CC's. What confuses me is why he would check you or Math, and not one of the people the game is having trouble sorting. It makes sense as scum to claim not goon on the most town read player in the game (you), but not as a town GC because it provides no value to the game. And he said he'd check math after like 10 pages of "yeah math definitely isn't an original goon" chatter. At best we have a uselessly anti-town GC here.

either that or hes trying to out pr(s) before he dies

If I was scum and trying to out the PRs I'd be claiming VIG! Whether they pick one modifier (know there's no other PT than the vig now), 2 modifications or even 3 modifications, the only one that both counts and they know exists is the vig. Tracker maybe next on the list of priorities if they did pick 2 or 3. GC either doesn't exist, or is harmless.

LOL

I'm sure that would prompt a vig counter claim.

Via bullet. At night.

it doesn't matter if he knows or not

he thought that the worst was claiming goon when really he was claiming goon cop

this indicates that he was completely unaware of the power roles/modifications in the first place

Yeah I'm skeptical because I think that both ducks went from intelligent-enough posts to HURR DURR I KANT REED 2 GUD

or that he was playing dumb

^

I currently trust Wisdom right now, and think JJD is town. At a bit of a loss on Brass and Maria.

Super confused about a lot of the grand statements Math has made. Why would town!tw mean scum!UD?

And just to humor me here, what's the worst that can happen for town if TW is allowed to live the night and fake another result?

[Nauci]

I'm shocked that TW didn't claim his question in early game was a GC crumb.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Vig is never useless. If the target doesn't die, then it functions like a cop because only scum have BP. I'm sorry but after this post I'm not trusting any of your reads.

OR they were blocked by the Town RB??