Mafiascum.net

In post 68, Marksman wrote:

In post 52, WeyounsLastClone wrote:Fun started without me!

vote: innocentvillager

I guess voting for everyone gets things going, but as long as it includes me it can't be a correct list

scum

In post 54, Lavender wrote:I didn't see the extra pages. O.o

town

In post 56, hellbooks wrote:snip

town

VOTE: WeyounsLastClone
UNVOTE: hellbooks

In post 78, Nono wrote:oops
VOTE: villager
same marksman, VOTE: clone

let me hammer please
kbai

In post 81, WeyounsLastClone wrote:NoNo, can you post a bit more coherent thoughts behind your votes?

Vote: NoNo

In post 82, Nono wrote:ahahahaha "NoNo",, caught scum, deadsheep me
trust you, marksie

v/la 18 hours

kbai

In post 245, Nono wrote:villager/clone can be a thing be on first glance, need more time
marksie, smarter than he looks, but not smart enough kek
green, maybe

In post 246, Nono wrote:y'all wanna kill me? kk I wanna hammer.
selfish? idk. more like petty, almost never get to hammer
logic is king, y'all can fight without me

VOTE: Vote: Hammer Wolf Clone dying on this tree
gn everyone

In post 293, Nono wrote:Do I have to spell it out?
*sigh*
VOTE: clone

p-edit: eh.

In post 368, Nono wrote:

In post 297, Almost50 wrote:

In post 6, Elements wrote:I think it seems a bit unfair if we all confirm vt

I know this is going to be look like fluff (or someone is going to call it forced..), but ANYWAY; I want to know what you meant here (if it was a joke, just say so).

P-edit: Oh. OK. I'll check that one in a bit.

didn’t see green pm, that’s scummy
UNVOTE:
VOTE: almost
VOTE: clone

In post 850, Almost50 wrote:Nono is another slot that appears on all dunks so far, but -unlike IV- she was late to the party on Wey. She also hammered twice (hb & Elements) and appears to have adopted this shtick to disclaim responsibility of her votes. "I saw a hammer and I took it". Looks bad to me.

In post 810, Almost50 wrote:Btw, I checked back and it looked like Wey was going down anyway. It probably would have been risky for Nono not to hop on it. I mean, she could have waited for the hammer (as her chosen troll) but it wouldn't have earned her much Towncred. Worthy of note that she put him @D-2 and CE put him @D-1 , but CE appears as the first voter on me, Lav and Raya now, so those votes were static for a long time despite having had multiple flips since then. That's why I want answers from him to my questions

In post 226, WeyounsLastClone wrote:Leaning scum
Nono - Still find his posts non-coherent, and then goes V/LA

In post 297, Almost50 wrote:

In post 6, Elements wrote:I think it seems a bit unfair if we all confirm vt

I know this is going to be look like fluff (or someone is going to call it forced..), but ANYWAY; I want to know what you meant here (if it was a joke, just say so).

P-edit: Oh. OK. I'll check that one in a bit.

In post 26, Hiraki wrote:

In post 6, Elements wrote:I think it seems a bit unfair if we all confirm vt

could be bait but I TR this

In post 790, Raya36 wrote:

In post 761, Marksman wrote:Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

Will do

As far as your first vote on him goes it was the first vote on the wagon aside from inno's vote which doesn't really count.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you scumread him for finding players who haven't posted yet to be suspicious. You questioned him about this which means you were giving him a chance.

You said we should dunk around now when Wey was tied at D-2 and you specifically said you'd be fine with Wey being dunked as well as someone much farther from being dunked. So clearly if you're partners with Wey there was 0 intent of trying to save him. You were off the wagon for a bit and stopped mentioning him so maybe you realized there'd be no saving him and the towncred was better than helping him live.

Then from there you were committed to his dunk as he was the top on your list of who you wanted to dunk next.

Tell me why you couldn't have just been early distancing from Wey then later when he was essentially destined to be dunked bussing him?

In post 761, Marksman wrote:You said something about page 15 making you put inno down as town, and Marksman down as scum. Could you go into that?

To clarify it wasn't solely page 15. It just happened to be when I was reading 15 that I felt more confident even unrelated since I was thinking about the past pages as well.

For Inno:
-I had been agreeing with most of what he said
-He was pushing for more activity page 15
-His take in 358 seems more like something scum would turn into a scumread. Not townread them for it. I strongly think that was a more town approach to that read
-359 is good too. Maybe biased since it's my slot and I know I'm town but the fact that he defended a highly voted wagon that's conftown to me when as scum he could have just let it get eliminated. Especially in this set-up. He also continues to defend my slot.

For Marksman:
-Honestly mainly tonal
-Also biased that you keep fighting for my slot to be dunked this page and arguing with Inno who is a pretty strong townread for me
-I disagree with you saying pressure votes don't work
-You also say in 366 that Inno is a bit towny but then have him as number 3 in your dunk list.

In post 802, Raya36 wrote:I wanna say Nono is scum and the next best flip but at the same time their acting too openly scummy on my opinion. Rushing dunks and begging for a hammer etc

In post 24, innocentvillager wrote:VOTE: hellbooks
VOTE: Marksman
VOTE: Nono
VOTE: Chemical Elements
VOTE: innocentvillager
VOTE: spicer1209
VOTE: Elements
VOTE: WeyounsLastClone
VOTE: Casey
VOTE: Isis
VOTE: Hayasaka
VOTE: ileileile
VOTE: Lavender
VOTE: Hiraki
I'm pretty sure I'm voting for all 4 scum

In post 360, innocentvillager wrote:like what scum comes in late and goes "HURR DURR I'M LATE WHO SHOULD I WAGON GUYS" and just ghosts the game without anything else

In post 473, innocentvillager wrote:i have no idea how we're going to win this game honestly if we still haven't dunked someone...

We need to dunk like... 10-12 people probably to reasonably win

We don't need to be worried about chain dunking unless it's close to lylo and we have two wagons at L-1 because twilight freezes until modflip and we will obviously dunk anyone who is hammering right after the flip because that is scum motivated

In post 479, innocentvillager wrote:I'll just say (so I can come back to this theory later ifneedbe) if I was scum leader I would organize it such that some of us are lurky and 1-2 are really active and try to be townread. It's a good hedge because if the town swings one way or the other (towards going after high activity posters vs. low activity posters) scum is still likely to win

It's nice for coasters to get by the first few elims, then have some big townread figure that infiltrates to the end

Basically if we just have 2 innocent children and then we launch in some random order I feel like town wins a vast majority of the time. If scum infiltrates the innocent children or can manipulate the elim order to hit the wincon beforehand they win

In post 481, innocentvillager wrote:i did some math for fun because I was curious. If we use the strategy above, we win about 86.6% assuming the elim order is random and the ICs are both town. Assuming scum has some influence in the elim order, we could model that by assuming they get two MEs for free so in that case we win 78.5% of the time. If scum is in the ICs we win 0% obviously. So a pessimistic estimate of our winrate is P(we choose two town ICs) * 78.5%. If we were to pick the ICs completely randomly we would have a 50-50 shot (10/14*9/13=49.5%), so under the random elim order we're 42.8% to win and under the not-so-random elim order we'd be 38.8% to win. Which actually feels not bad.

I'm not saying we should use this strategy because obviously people will object, adverse selection, etc. But it's a fun baseline to know

In post 603, innocentvillager wrote:can we dunk hayasaka hehhee

In post 720, innocentvillager wrote:I don’t hate an Elements dunk but I’d rather hellbooks

I don’t understand why Casey is hard defending this slot, I see nothing worthy of hard defending and a brief iso of Casey I didn’t see a great towncase for this slot

In post 749, innocentvillager wrote:I don’t hate an Elements dunk after this

Just to clarify we’re in twilight and this time gets added back right

In post 751, innocentvillager wrote:I really don’t find the hellbooks slot towny sorry all and the arguments have been meh

Consistency? One game scum meta? zzzzzzz

In post 752, innocentvillager wrote:but okay I snap vote elements if this flips green

If red flip.... probably still vote elements lol but I’ll think about it a bit more

In post 226, WeyounsLastClone wrote:Glad to see almost everyone posted thoughts. I wish I could be as coherent as some of you with your thoughts and analyses, my mind goes all places reading the different interactions and suspicions. But I'll give it a stab anyway:

Thinking town

Marksman

- lot of content, and while that's not necessarily townie, I think he posts valid thoughts (although sometimes making mountains out of molehills, but that might be just my opinion ) and keep things going

Casey

- Starting the game late, but brings the heat and some decent posts with interesting analysis

Chemical Elements

- not to rehash the whole discussion again, but the initial posts and help with vote counts gave me a town-vibe. But slipping more towards neutral, not sure if post 101 was serious or trying to get more votes on innocent

Either way

Hellbooks

- initially thought she was trying to create chaos and leaning scum, but I guess that's her way of posting. and it's funny, which always helps

Hiraki

- A bit hit and miss, sometimes slightly opportunistic, but happy he understood my post that caused the stir.

Isis

- started to post a lot, then a bit less (or it could have been night, not sure where she's from). Felt maybe a bit too serious from the start.

Lavender

- Could be a real confused townie, but could be an excuse as well. Not sure as scum why you'd post stuff like that, but as town you could easily read the thread and see them both posting. If it was just uncertainty who to vote for I could understand, but ChemElement/Elements has been addressed even before.

Hayasaka

- Maybe I don't trust her as she's voting for me, but not sure I follow her reasoning in initial posts 131 and 132

Elements

- Opportunistic vote on Casey, don't get much from the other posts made

Leaning scum

Nono

- Still find his posts non-coherent, and then goes V/LA

spicer1209

- with lack of posts, need something more than that initial post. Want to read his thoughts before putting actual vote in though.

I really don't know about innocentvillager anymore. Voting for just everyone still doesn't sit well with me, but actually the way he interacted after that and updated his suspicions seemed quite town.

Unvote: innocentvillager

waiting for content:

Vote: ileileile

Hope I didn't miss anyone