Micro 991: Names on the List [game over!]

[Gimli son of Glóin]

Massive post incoming.

[Gimli son of Glóin]

Hullo! Let's all have a great week.

I've spent some time working on the game while the thread was closed, and I believe my current leans are starting to near a solve. There are many premises I'm going to make to come to my current POE, and from then to my current most likely team combinations, and I hope you bare with me through it. I hope this post comes clean and helps town.

My first premise is that clidd is very likely to be town and someone I'm hardclearing through the rest of the game. He's been tirelessly solvey throughout, and now that volxen flipped we have a greater understanding of how clidd's treatment of the slot doesn't point to a scummy agenda. A post such as #310, that puts me, raya and volxen as top towns feels dangerous if he is scum because his top townleans are either all town or not scum with clidd, since raya isn't scum with clidd (I'll get to that in a bit). His handling of the volxen slot continues to be majorly interested in solving it rather than push for something easy, as #540 shows. Note the handle of the slot is the opposite of what raya initially suspected clidd of doing (setting up a push). Basically, if clidd is scum then he has no reason to continue voicing that volxen townread he had earlier, since only clidd thought volxen was towny and got pushed for it. Post #540 is too late into d1 for him to keep bringing up that point again if he is scum.

Of minor importance but still relevant are clidd's unlikely pairings with the POE. The one I investigated is his relationship with koba in thread. The clidd and koba interactions, starting at #447 makes them unlikely to be scum together, with posts such as #456 where clidd says koba's entire ISO is scummy, and I think #469 is too genuine and nuanced of a read to come from a fake svs interaction, calling koba 'super selfish if not scum'. the #474-81 follow up also makes them an unlikely pairing and I think koba's handle of clidd would give me the same impressions, like that moment koba stopped tunneling me to push clidd.

Related to my clidd locktown read is my raya locktown read. They're very likely at least not scum together, as raya's entire push on clidd came way too soon, strong and reasonable. Starting with #139 where raya says 'For all I know the reason you're potentially setting up a push on volxen instead of the other options you gave is because the other options include your partners'. Follows up with a vote on #207 for a very good reason (that weird 'villain' post clidd made to ahsoka) and all of her posting to clidd (216-18-21-22-31-34) is the most genuinely towny thought process anyone has made in this game. She is absolutely coming with the right perspective here, pushing someone she isn't scum with and who certainly doesn't look pushable for scum the way clidd played d1. That makes raya town almost always. In #612 raya's scumpool is composed of literally the two loudest players in the game (clidd and koba). She is moving from strong loud player to strong loud player, both unlikely to eat rope and never low hanging fruit. #727 has some cool takes.

Alright, now that these townleans are out of the way, we have our POE. It's fair to note that if I'm right and raya and clidd are town, then we only need to kill one scum to effectively win the game, as with 3 living town players scum will never reach parity. So given these leans I currently have,

I'm against using the doomcounter.

We can't afford wasting a flip and I'm unlikely to change my mind about this, at least given the current gamestate.

So now we have the POE of <infinity, koba, ahsoka, NM, amélie>. Find two towns and win the game. If we can't do that, then find interactions and leans between the players that make them unlikely enough to be scum together so we can remove them from possible scum team combinations, and that way we can find the best possible elim with the highest likelihood of hitting scum. This isn't gonna be as set in stone as my locktown reads. From the POE, interactions between these players could be faked and everything should be taken with a grain of salt. Having said that, I think I had some fair premises to come to my most likely scum teams and my lockscum read. The way NM played this game and given my solve just went there regardless of the hammer (which I'm satisfied not talking about any further as NM is probably scum and playing to his wincon) I feel very strongly that we have no other elimination to make. If he is town there's nothing I can do cause he never showed any signs of it.

Ahsoka

The ahsoka-koba interactions are actually weird and it's hard to pinpoint much about it that makes it unlikely to be svs theatre, at least at first. I feel that ahsoka is always trying to disengage with Koba in their discussion. #169 where ahsoka says they'll 'take the game out of rvs' seems a little detached from the thread as many AI things have definitely happened already. I'm not sure what to do with their interaction with koba early but it's weird. in #260 ahsoka is already calling koba town because 'they also saw radja being opportunistic'. This is a bit of a stretch as koba's description of why they voted radja doesn't imply anything in the sense of opportunism with the ahsoka vote. in #292 ahsoka is calling koba scum again. #331 is good though! And this will be something that permeates ahsoka's posting throughout d1. They come to the conclusion that there's at least one scum in their wagon between <gimly, koba and clidd>, clears me and then says koba and clidd probably contain one scum but not both. I feel this might actually point to ahsoka not being scum with Koba but it's kinda farfetched. The follow up is alright though. Their discussion from #334-351 where ahsoka goes 'it's you or clidd. what's your read on clidd?' point rather strongly to this not actually being scum theatre. So I'm fine removing ahsoka/koba teams for now.

#359 from ahsoka is really important. It at the very least points to a radja/ahsoka/koba being quite impossible. They're all scumreading and attacking each other here. I tend to like these ahsoka posts to koba quite a lot. I have the feeling ahsoka and radja are unlikely to be scum together because of ahsoka's thoughts when koba voted radja, and also because radja voted ahsoka without putting ahsoka on their leans or explaining the vote. I feel this is too incredibly detached of a vote to be on a scum partner that's getting heat. This isn't set in stone but I think ahsoka is unlikely to be both scum with koba and with radja. I do not think koba is unlikely to be scum with radja based off koba's posts though.

Horsewoman/Infinity

#287 followed by #288 by horsewoman is very interesting if she was somehow scum with Koba, meaning I think this somehow creates a separation between the two and makes them an unlikely team. I'm not going to read into the other stuff too much because I don't know if that entire thing didn't blow out of proportion precisely because they were scum together. #291 seems a little pushy for a svs as well. #293 doesn't contain a thought process as to why the radja readslist is bad so it doesn't quite look like bussing. I feel the amélie/infinity/koba is not too likely given the vibe of this post. also #502 might point to radja/infinity/NM being unlikely as well. These are weak-ish reads I'm making trying to get somewhere. #503 is literally pointing at a koba/NM interaction as possibly svs for a good reason so I'm fine writing off the koba/infinity/nm team.

I'm left with

ahsoka, NM, infinity
NM, infinity, amélie
NM, amélie, Koba

and NM is scum.

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Radja

[Not_Mafia]

Hullo! Let's all have a great week.

I've spent some time working on the game while the thread was closed, and I believe my current leans are starting to near a solve. There are many premises I'm going to make to come to my current POE, and from then to my current most likely team combinations, and I hope you bare with me through it. I hope this post comes clean and helps town.

My first premise is that clidd is very likely to be town and someone I'm hardclearing through the rest of the game. He's been tirelessly solvey throughout, and now that volxen flipped we have a greater understanding of how clidd's treatment of the slot doesn't point to a scummy agenda. A post such as #310, that puts me, raya and volxen as top towns feels dangerous if he is scum because his top townleans are either all town or not scum with clidd, since raya isn't scum with clidd (I'll get to that in a bit). His handling of the volxen slot continues to be majorly interested in solving it rather than push for something easy, as #540 shows. Note the handle of the slot is the opposite of what raya initially suspected clidd of doing (setting up a push). Basically, if clidd is scum then he has no reason to continue voicing that volxen townread he had earlier, since only clidd thought volxen was towny and got pushed for it. Post #540 is too late into d1 for him to keep bringing up that point again if he is scum.

Of minor importance but still relevant are clidd's unlikely pairings with the POE. The one I investigated is his relationship with koba in thread. The clidd and koba interactions, starting at #447 makes them unlikely to be scum together, with posts such as #456 where clidd says koba's entire ISO is scummy, and I think #469 is too genuine and nuanced of a read to come from a fake svs interaction, calling koba 'super selfish if not scum'. the #474-81 follow up also makes them an unlikely pairing and I think koba's handle of clidd would give me the same impressions, like that moment koba stopped tunneling me to push clidd.

Related to my clidd locktown read is my raya locktown read. They're very likely at least not scum together, as raya's entire push on clidd came way too soon, strong and reasonable. Starting with #139 where raya says 'For all I know the reason you're potentially setting up a push on volxen instead of the other options you gave is because the other options include your partners'. Follows up with a vote on #207 for a very good reason (that weird 'villain' post clidd made to ahsoka) and all of her posting to clidd (216-18-21-22-31-34) is the most genuinely towny thought process anyone has made in this game. She is absolutely coming with the right perspective here, pushing someone she isn't scum with and who certainly doesn't look pushable for scum the way clidd played d1. That makes raya town almost always. In #612 raya's scumpool is composed of literally the two loudest players in the game (clidd and koba). She is moving from strong loud player to strong loud player, both unlikely to eat rope and never low hanging fruit. #727 has some cool takes.

Alright, now that these townleans are out of the way, we have our POE. It's fair to note that if I'm right and raya and clidd are town, then we only need to kill one scum to effectively win the game, as with 3 living town players scum will never reach parity. So given these leans I currently have,

I'm against using the doomcounter.

We can't afford wasting a flip and I'm unlikely to change my mind about this, at least given the current gamestate.

So now we have the POE of <infinity, koba, ahsoka, NM, amélie>. Find two towns and win the game. If we can't do that, then find interactions and leans between the players that make them unlikely enough to be scum together so we can remove them from possible scum team combinations, and that way we can find the best possible elim with the highest likelihood of hitting scum. This isn't gonna be as set in stone as my locktown reads. From the POE, interactions between these players could be faked and everything should be taken with a grain of salt. Having said that, I think I had some fair premises to come to my most likely scum teams and my lockscum read. The way NM played this game and given my solve just went there regardless of the hammer (which I'm satisfied not talking about any further as NM is probably scum and playing to his wincon) I feel very strongly that we have no other elimination to make. If he is town there's nothing I can do cause he never showed any signs of it.

Ahsoka

The ahsoka-koba interactions are actually weird and it's hard to pinpoint much about it that makes it unlikely to be svs theatre, at least at first. I feel that ahsoka is always trying to disengage with Koba in their discussion. #169 where ahsoka says they'll 'take the game out of rvs' seems a little detached from the thread as many AI things have definitely happened already. I'm not sure what to do with their interaction with koba early but it's weird. in #260 ahsoka is already calling koba town because 'they also saw radja being opportunistic'. This is a bit of a stretch as koba's description of why they voted radja doesn't imply anything in the sense of opportunism with the ahsoka vote. in #292 ahsoka is calling koba scum again. #331 is good though! And this will be something that permeates ahsoka's posting throughout d1. They come to the conclusion that there's at least one scum in their wagon between <gimly, koba and clidd>, clears me and then says koba and clidd probably contain one scum but not both. I feel this might actually point to ahsoka not being scum with Koba but it's kinda farfetched. The follow up is alright though. Their discussion from #334-351 where ahsoka goes 'it's you or clidd. what's your read on clidd?' point rather strongly to this not actually being scum theatre. So I'm fine removing ahsoka/koba teams for now.

#359 from ahsoka is really important. It at the very least points to a radja/ahsoka/koba being quite impossible. They're all scumreading and attacking each other here. I tend to like these ahsoka posts to koba quite a lot. I have the feeling ahsoka and radja are unlikely to be scum together because of ahsoka's thoughts when koba voted radja, and also because radja voted ahsoka without putting ahsoka on their leans or explaining the vote. I feel this is too incredibly detached of a vote to be on a scum partner that's getting heat. This isn't set in stone but I think ahsoka is unlikely to be both scum with koba and with radja. I do not think koba is unlikely to be scum with radja based off koba's posts though.

Horsewoman/Infinity

#287 followed by #288 by horsewoman is very interesting if she was somehow scum with Koba, meaning I think this somehow creates a separation between the two and makes them an unlikely team. I'm not going to read into the other stuff too much because I don't know if that entire thing didn't blow out of proportion precisely because they were scum together. #291 seems a little pushy for a svs as well. #293 doesn't contain a thought process as to why the radja readslist is bad so it doesn't quite look like bussing. I feel the amélie/infinity/koba is not too likely given the vibe of this post. also #502 might point to radja/infinity/NM being unlikely as well. These are weak-ish reads I'm making trying to get somewhere. #503 is literally pointing at a koba/NM interaction as possibly svs for a good reason so I'm fine writing off the koba/infinity/nm team.

I'm left with

ahsoka, NM, infinity
NM, infinity, amélie
NM, amélie, Koba

and NM is scum.

tl;dr

[DkKoba]

VOTE: list

[DkKoba]

gimli why did you put lostego at e-1?

[Gimli son of Glóin]

tell me what, if anything, you find suspicious about it, then I'll think if it deserves any explanation. have you done any work in this thread?

[DkKoba]

nope. and wim is not alignment indicative. i come from a site with a lot of high WIM players who do the same shit u posted daystart as scum often(it gets em the free townreads)

you not including who your supposed greatest scumread in your thingy stinks something awful.

[Gimli son of Glóin]

damn almost like WIM in a setup where scum have an advantage should be a huge green flag for you

done talking to you. cya all tomorrow!

[DkKoba]

all ur post is "x team is impossible" which is the exact stupid content i spew as scum while inserting town into a team being like "lol thsi team is impossible"
and then shoving 3 random team reads in just to make it seem like theres a read there.

[DkKoba]

ur reads are all associative and teambuilding vs looking for independent reasons to scumread.

[Not_Mafia]

What's WIM?

[DkKoba]

wants it more

[DkKoba]

also we're using the fucking list. we need mechanical info and im not playing mountainous here.

[Not_Mafia]

Don't use MU terms

[Not_Mafia]

Gimli of Radja should be eliminated

[Ahsoka]

So Publish?

[DkKoba]

Don't use MU terms

tf is the MS equivalent then.

[DkKoba]

im annoyed cause i was only voting lostego to put pressure there, not to lim them. to come back to seeing them hammered is extremely annoying and im kinda checked out of this game bc of that.

[DkKoba]

damn almost like WIM in a setup where scum have an advantage should be a huge green flag for you

done talking to you. cya all tomorrow!

this only applied to d1. doesnt count so much after a town elim on d2.

[Ahsoka]

the fade happened so fast.

[DkKoba]

yup feels like it was forced thru by gimli.

[Not_Mafia]

Don't use MU terms

tf is the MS equivalent then.

Please consult this thread for guidance and advice on MU terminology

[DkKoba]

u know gimli outted a bunch of teamreads how much u wanna bet at least 2/3 just so happens to be possible when we publish it?

honestly its actually kinda interesting they were thinking team oriented reads.... when thats what the list for scum is... a way to wifom teamreads......

[Not_Mafia]

Gimli might be even scummier than Radja, the vote on the player who was eliminated day 1 was terrible and all his posting is so tryhard