In post 845, GuiltyLion wrote:but this is just super lazy play if he is scum here. Do you all think he really just says he's "unsure" about Bingle (in my convo with him in the hood) and nothing more if he's buddies?
I do think in a vacuum, Dunn or Hopkirk would be most likely 6p scum with Bingle 3p scum by pool-spec, and I still think Hopkirk is locktown. But that's about the best point I would have for scum!Dunn, and I'm always gonna be more paranoid about the players that seem like they're explicitly trying to stay alive
im not really sure if dunnstrals scum but i want him to come carry or else ill keep worrying about him :-(
848 im so confused.. do u think he would do that when hes done it before.. wouldnt that be too obvious? :?
:? :? :? VOTE: vanderscamp
i think this is the one ill feel bestest about :? but im not 100% confident sadly
I don't get any sense of her putting any effort into analysis
well this is prob true but what specifically gives this?
im not
just
sheeping or anything, im voting people im comfortable with voting (idk if this makes sense but; i think im sheeping, but im not just doing it nobrainingly)
idk if im right about voting you, it might be a bit too unfair. you make me frustrated alot vanderscamp (so i might actually be a bit blinded), i cant tell 100% if its intentional, but my heads telling me its probably not. maybe its just i dont like how you keep calling me awkward, im really just doing this all naturally and not forcing anything at all, maybe we're just completely different people who dont see the same way. but even after that, i still wouldn't change my vote, because i like guiltylions reasoning
ur hard to read and scary
Spoiler:
the vote on u, i feel best about (which is why ill stick to it) the reason why this game is so hard for me is because i can see what other people are doing and it doesnt look all that scummy imo.. cant say the same for u sadly
-
i would probably have the very most biased opinion in this situation, but i just dont like ur suses rn.. like just standing back and looking at it and its but idk if what im seeing is dumb
So luckily, we all appear to be on the same page here
Posted: Wed May 26, 2021 10:37 am
by GuiltyLion
sorry for less activity the past day or so - I should have a bit more time for the next few hours to play and chat in real time if anyone else is around. I did look through some of Dunn's recent scum and towngames but frankly I didn't spot any patterns that stood out to me or things that might help solve him in this game.
Overall, my latest feelings are:
- I have not wanted to admit it but I am wavering a bit in my confidence of the scumread of Vanders, I'm not sure if that's more due to waiting it out and just getting cold feet or due to both Lukewarm and Hopkirk pouring some water on the flames of that read. I still think he's best bet for scum by POE and my general philosophy of how scum is likely to play, as well as me still being stuck on the awkward "I remembered Marci/Luke can't be S-S" phrasing, but I'm like maybe 50% sure instead of 70-80%. I'm also a bit flummoxed that my response to Hopkirk about townslips was the thing that apparently changed his mind on me, but I can honestly see that coming from either alignment so I couldn't draw any AI conclusions from it, though I do think it's odd for his read to swing so drastically off of just that.
- Since I'm less sure of the Vander read I won't exactly cry today if Dunn is eliminated instead, but I still just don't really see a good reason to think he's scum other than him not really playing very hard. Like if Dunn is scum, you have to believe he didn't try to gain any towncred from scumreading/distancing/pushing Bingle, nor did he try especially hard to protect him, and you have to believe he's happy to give flippant low-effort posts in thread even when most players are casting suspicion his way. It's possible but it just doesn't feel like The One True Answer to me.
- I do see the wishy-washiness in marcistar's posting today that's being called out, the progression from being less trusting of me in 844 to sheeping me in 849 is a bit stilted. I intend to look over her newbie scum game that others mentioned previously as when I skimmed it a week or two ago I thought she played with more agenda there than she did here. I do weigh N_M's vote seriously, and I think if there's scum in the blind spot it'd be her, because I've grown more confident in town!Luke given some of his play today, and Hopkirk is still nigh conftown.
So luckily, we all appear to be on the same page here
FMPOV it's pretty likely (almost ~100% minus probability of scum!Luke) that one of these wagons is on scum, and scum is sitting on one of the other two. I suspect if that's the case that scum won't want to switch their vote here as it would very likely look bad jumping from one miselimination to another, especially if/when both town wagonees are flipped before F3. So we probably need some direction from Hopkirk to resolve the deadlock right now.
Given that N_M is town, it could mean:
1) marci is scum and two townies have correctly solved today
2) scum!Dunn avoided the GL/Vander TvT entirely and opted to push a marci miselimination without any real support yet from other townies
3) I'm right about Vander and
all of
Lukewarm/N_M/Dunn are wrong as town
all this assuming a town!Luke
Could be some fuel for thought about which of these scenarios is more or less likely. Putting it this way makes me feel further uncertain about Vander because I currently know at least
three
townies would have to be wrong for me to be right, whereas worlds where marci or Dunn are scum mean only one or two townies besides me
has
to be wrong.
Posted: Wed May 26, 2021 11:12 am
by GuiltyLion
In post 880, marcistar wrote:maybe we're just completely different people who dont see the same way. but even after that, i still wouldn't change my vote, because i like guiltylions reasoning
this is also kinda bleh, tries to pin me with all the responsibility for Vanders' flip
Posted: Wed May 26, 2021 11:23 am
by GuiltyLion
man
am I talking myself into the marci scumread
I gotta work for a bit more so effortpost explaining thoughts later but her associatives with Bingle are kinda worse than I had assumed with review and if I completely disregard the pool spec argument her play fits the same profile I suspect Vander for (constantly scumread/discredit Bingle to disassociate with him, but it's even worse in her case as she didn't actually vote him until Luke goaded her to do so)
Posted: Wed May 26, 2021 11:28 am
by Lukewarm
VOTE: marci
I still stand by day 1 Marci feeling real different from Day 1 Marci in the other game, but this does feel a bit like Marci after she lost her partner...
I really don't like that every single town and every single scum read she has wavered on.
And she does not appear to be solving. It kind of feels like she was not putting in the effort today because she wanted to slide through on all of the town reads she got day 1.
Posted: Wed May 26, 2021 11:31 am
by GuiltyLion
I'm not gonna lie the temptation to yolohammer is real, but I'm definitely gonna wait for Hopkirk to have a chance to see the latest
Posted: Wed May 26, 2021 11:36 am
by Not_Mafia
In post 888, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm not gonna lie the temptation to yolohammer is real
In post 862, Vanderscamp wrote:Why is he just saying he's unsure on bingle not indicative of them being partners?
I don't understand that read at all.
I just try to operate from an assumption that scum are going to be playing with intention and trying to win, and so when he just barely gives a comment on his hypothetical buddy when that buddy may be flipped strikes me as fundamentally bad/sub-optimal play, and therefore less likely to be scum
I think it's fair to question that at this point though, I might be making too many assumptions about what scum!Dunn would or wouldn't do. I'm gonna try to find time today to look through a few of his recent past scumgames, cause this is crossing the line into "play so uninspired you can't assume it comes from town either" territory at this point
I had the same read on the 6p scum last game, that they were just not trying at all to appear good, and that they would put in more effort if they actually were scum and there was pressure on them to do well in the big pool.
That read turned out to be wrong, obviously not the case that that read's never going to be right but I doubt the "pressure of being in the 6p pool" would apply to Dunn if it didn't apply to pooky.
In post 873, Dunnstral wrote:IMO the wishy-washyness I'm seeing from Marci right now feels like scum
VOTE: marcistar
am iactually wishy washy-
My problem with your posts is not just the wishy washiness, I'm just not seeing any kind of real progressions or towny thought process coming from basically anything you're saying.
Like, the thing GL posted earlier when he noticed I said something this game that I said in a recent scum game and you asked "wouldn't that be too obvious?"
The fact that it was a pretty random comment that is not generally super memorable means that it is pretty clearly not "too obvious" if it did happen to be an actual tell from me, at least not something that anyone would discover unless they were pretty carefully ISOing me.
I don't get any sense of her putting any effort into analysis
well this is prob true but what specifically gives this?
im not
just
sheeping or anything, im voting people im comfortable with voting (idk if this makes sense but; i think im sheeping, but im not just doing it nobrainingly)
idk if im right about voting you, it might be a bit too unfair. you make me frustrated alot vanderscamp (so i might actually be a bit blinded), i cant tell 100% if its intentional, but my heads telling me its probably not. maybe its just i dont like how you keep calling me awkward, im really just doing this all naturally and not forcing anything at all, maybe we're just completely different people who dont see the same way. but even after that, i still wouldn't change my vote, because i like guiltylions reasoning
ur hard to read and scary
Spoiler:
the vote on u, i feel best about (which is why ill stick to it) the reason why this game is so hard for me is because i can see what other people are doing and it doesnt look all that scummy imo.. cant say the same for u sadly
-
i would probably have the very most biased opinion in this situation, but i just dont like ur suses rn.. like just standing back and looking at it and its but idk if what im seeing is dumb
--- ---
bros i cut my own hair imma cry
I'm sorry I'm making you frustrated, hopefully it should be pretty clear that it's not intentional on my part!
Can you talk more about what parts of GL's reasoning you like?
Because it is pretty easy to just say that, this is pretty much exactly what I'm talking about, you're not really saying anything about me or anyone else that is not either a sheep or just a blanket statement about whether someone is scummy or not.
Posted: Wed May 26, 2021 1:41 pm
by Vanderscamp
In post 883, GuiltyLion wrote:sorry for less activity the past day or so - I should have a bit more time for the next few hours to play and chat in real time if anyone else is around. I did look through some of Dunn's recent scum and towngames but frankly I didn't spot any patterns that stood out to me or things that might help solve him in this game.
Overall, my latest feelings are:
- I have not wanted to admit it but I am wavering a bit in my confidence of the scumread of Vanders, I'm not sure if that's more due to waiting it out and just getting cold feet or due to both Lukewarm and Hopkirk pouring some water on the flames of that read. I still think he's best bet for scum by POE and my general philosophy of how scum is likely to play, as well as me still being stuck on the awkward "I remembered Marci/Luke can't be S-S" phrasing, but I'm like maybe 50% sure instead of 70-80%. I'm also a bit flummoxed that my response to Hopkirk about townslips was the thing that apparently changed his mind on me, but I can honestly see that coming from either alignment so I couldn't draw any AI conclusions from it, though I do think it's odd for his read to swing so drastically off of just that.
- Since I'm less sure of the Vander read I won't exactly cry today if Dunn is eliminated instead, but I still just don't really see a good reason to think he's scum other than him not really playing very hard. Like if Dunn is scum, you have to believe he didn't try to gain any towncred from scumreading/distancing/pushing Bingle, nor did he try especially hard to protect him, and you have to believe he's happy to give flippant low-effort posts in thread even when most players are casting suspicion his way. It's possible but it just doesn't feel like The One True Answer to me.
- I do see the wishy-washiness in marcistar's posting today that's being called out, the progression from being less trusting of me in 844 to sheeping me in 849 is a bit stilted. I intend to look over her newbie scum game that others mentioned previously as when I skimmed it a week or two ago I thought she played with more agenda there than she did here. I do weigh N_M's vote seriously, and I think if there's scum in the blind spot it'd be her, because I've grown more confident in town!Luke given some of his play today, and Hopkirk is still nigh conftown.
I do think my phrasing of the s/s thing was poor, but hopefully you understand the point that I was trying to convey with it.
You're still on my kill list but I don't think Dunn has been towny in any way and I think you have independently done more towny things than Dunn (as well as more scummy things) and the stuff about the townslips did sound pretty genuine so I'm willing to consider that my read on you is biased because I hate your accusation on me.
I'd kill you before Marci but Marci before luke or hopkirk, I still don't have a reason to doubt the bingle neighborhood analysis that looks good for Marci but the other two have actually sounded towny to me, while Marci has really not.
I'm tired and don't have time to lay out the explanation of things in marci's ISO I didn't like on reread but I can post that tomorrow. Want to get Hopkirk thoughts but I'm starting to feel pretty good about a Marci elim. I changed my own mind with the reasoning I posted earlier today about the number of townies who would have to be wrong at this stage for Vander to be scum
Posted: Thu May 27, 2021 2:40 am
by Hopkirk
i'll pur Marci on the iso list for tomorrow when i should be able to finish what i started without pesky interruptions
not_mafias reads on me are 100% serious and valid since hes seen me both as scum and as town
In post 887, Lukewarm wrote:I still stand by day 1 Marci feeling real different from Day 1 Marci in the other game, but this does feel a bit like Marci after she lost her partner...
I really don't like that every single town and every single scum read she has wavered on.
And she does not appear to be solving. It kind of feels like she was not putting in the effort today because she wanted to slide through on all of the town reads she got day 1.
check my other town games, i just dont have motivation when im sused because its not fun usually its me getting tunnel sused when i do that tho.
In post 894, Vanderscamp wrote:Can you talk more about what parts of GL's reasoning you like?
when he was complaining about how nobody was talking about you, when he was
Spoiler:
In post 771, GuiltyLion wrote:he gave no good reasons or evidence to suggest he thought Marci was scummier than Bingle. He said she was "awkward", meanwhile brought up
actually good points
against Bingle
Spoiler:
In post 765, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm saying Vanderscamp is scum for giving great reasons to suspect Bingle, giving comparatively weak/awful ones to suspect Marci,
claiming he has a TR on nEE
, and then voting Marci in the 6p instead of Bingle in the 3p. His stated reasoning did not align with his vote, and he cannot use any sort of justification about "we were limming in the 6p" as a defense since he said he was pro-limming in the 3p. He also then made no real effort to push Bingle from his vote in the 250s or wherever until several days later IRL once Hopkirk/nEE/N_M were both more solidified on Bingle
bringing up points about how you sused me and bingle both, but had weaker reasons on me that kinda stuck in my mind alot.
and when he brought up the fact you voted bingle early on, but went afk after that. (cant find it exactly, since im in class rn.. but im pretty sure it was him who said it).
i think it'll be good as well,
even tho i know im town... if all the townies are so so confused about me, it would be better if im gone so that yall can focus better!
In post 887, Lukewarm wrote:I still stand by day 1 Marci feeling real different from Day 1 Marci in the other game, but this does feel a bit like Marci after she lost her partner...
I really don't like that every single town and every single scum read she has wavered on.
And she does not appear to be solving. It kind of feels like she was not putting in the effort today because she wanted to slide through on all of the town reads she got day 1.
check my other town games, i just dont have motivation when im sused because its not fun usually its me getting tunnel sused when i do that tho.
My issue, is that you have been giving this vibe since the very start of Day 2, but you were not being sussed until like the last 24 hours
---
but what specifically gives this? 
(idk if this makes sense but; i think im sheeping, but im not just doing it nobrainingly)![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}
the reason why this game is so hard for me is because i can see what other people are doing and it doesnt look all that scummy imo.. cant say the same for u sadly 
usually its me getting tunnel sused when i do that tho.