I think that this means that we kill Windows today, but still gonna think on it some
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:32 pm
by Childs~
In post 868, MacReady~ wrote:I mean that I have no particular reason to believe that the gate is 1shot, you already lied about the existence of said gate.
Well I said it was a quite severe gate.
I needed to say that in case I was killed and people tried to setup spec under my fake ungated Novice Vig claim--it'd throw off setup spec for them to think that I was stronger than I am.
But I didn't want to give the exact gate on D1, for multiple reasons. Make it harder for scum to fakeclaim, both being me and also PRs.
I didn't know what the setup was like, but hiding the exact gate while specifying it was severe was the right play since it's part of why I believe the cop claim being oneshot.
I didn't specify which gate it was, but how many severe gates do you think there could be? Two-shot maybe. Simple, maybe. But there's only so many severe gates in existence.
...Also btw, it's very subtly so, but even before I confessed the lie of having an extra gate, I did
hint
at my extra gate.
Want me to quote my posts post-claim where I laid the
very very subtle
hints that I was actually gated beyond the Novice? 'Cause I did leave hints.
In post 508, Blair~ wrote:We can test a jailkeeper claim in this game because scum can't actually have a roleblocker but this risks letting Clark jump into a new body if she is a thing
I am aware of this risk.
(This risk was also referring to me being oneshot btw.)
with the conclusion that my vig shot is anti-town to actually use.
I
agree
with it actually going through as being bad for the town.
So the best option isn't for me to make a shot with the intent of having it succeed--my best option is to make a shot with the explicit intend of having my night action fail.
Ergo, have the jailkeeper target me N1 and after that either me or share my target.
It's worth discussing the merit behind me confirming my vig power with a shot.
But my actual preference would be to attempt a vig shot and have the jailkeep cause it to fail.
(I don't trust my accuracy with a vig anyway. )
(Okay so a lot of these are a lot more subtle than I thought in hindsight.)
Whenever that happens, Clark cannot be scum.
If my shot fails N2, Clark is town.
If my shot fails N3, Clark is town.
If my shot fails N4, Clark is town.
Every night my shot fails, Clark is confirmed to be town.
If Clark is alive and my shot ever succeeds--then Clark is confirmed to be scum.
And I am confirmed to be town the first night my shot succeeds.
If my shot succeeds N2, I could not have been scum on D1 or D2.
If my shot succeeds N4, I could not have been scum on D1, D2, D3, or D4.
So when the scum would break the loop above, they would by necessity run into
the issue of me confirming
they had done so.
(I realize this isn't clear, and could be me lying my ass off, but "my shot" was meant to hint that it was
singular
.
In post 685, Childs~ wrote:They can't kill me N1, and if they kill Clark, then I still get my shot off.
Here it's a lot more clear, tho. I left the hint that "I still get my shot off". 'My shot', not 'a shot'.
My shot implies singular shot; 'a shot' implies plural.
My usage of 'my shot' was a deliberate breadcrumb of having only one.
In post 561, Fuchs~ wrote:if they actually are a vig, I think that they should probably never fire.
this can be worked around by having childs announce their intended during the day
Why never fire when I can have a jailkeeper block me or target my target to effectively produce the same result?
As long as I announce my target, and as long as the jailkeeper is either on me or my target, my shot should never go through--effectively, never firing.
I was open to discussing the merits of letting my shot go through N2, but I still overall leaned towards the strategy of having my shot be perma-blocked and thus, perma-confing Clark as long as they live.
one successful vig shot brings the game onto evens
. I'd need to shoot twice in order to bring the game to odds. And that doesn't actually give the town an extra mislim, it just moves two eliminations from the town into a single town player's hands.
The only way for a vig going through to give the town an extra elimination is with a killstopper.
So the existence of a vig means that the existence of a killstopper is guaranteed
I can explain further, but it would genuinely be antitown to hand scum a roadmap to what sorts of roles are in the game, I think you'd agree.
The vig having
my modifier
actually increases the odds of the jailkeeper being present, because
the more you alter the vig role
, the more the town roles need to be made more swingy/contrived/etc.
Okay here was the biggie tho.
"the more you alter the vig role" was meant as a
big fucking huge
hint that I wasn't being truthful about the only gate being Novice. Novice is a fairly simple modification to the vig role. Altering being more extensive = extra modifier, "the vig having my modifier" was my hint at it being a more severe one. And there was the reiteration of one vig shot getting us to evens.
(Might've left more after that but since I got at least a couple of the biggies, I've gotten bored with tracking down more.)
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:34 pm
by Childs~
In post 870, Fuchs~ wrote:This page has both somewhat alleviated my concern that childs is not childs, while simultaneously making me very frustrated with childs for their plan yesterday. Like, the attempt to force the town into a game plan, based on a lie, that only actually works if you read is right, and fucks the town over if it is wrong...
I mean, I get it, it was bad if the town actually listened to me.
Be glad they didn't, and then figure out what to do with the knowledge gained.
In post 820, Childs~ wrote:If I used it as much D1 as I would normally be inclined to, then on D2 someone would use it as much as I am.
It was specifically me holding back that made it easier for me to identify me as me today.
Just gotta say, this is a dumb plan.
If you make your self different, on purpose, day 1. And then don't do it day 2, the end result is not to make it EASIER to identify you on day 2.
Instead, that purposeful difference just... makes the days look different...
i thought the same but then thinking about it, guess it tracks overall with childs' modus operandi which to me seems like confidence and ideas but not full awareness of how these might come across to others? think it was apparent with the whole plan surrounding clarks
i've gathered that unless the team is exactly palmer/childs then palmer must be telling the truth, which confs them for the moment but not childs? that's where we're at rn?
i'd wager from what i said above and just the posting in general that childs is still themselves, so we're good on that front. doesn't clear from being scum but at least clears one slot from being assimiliated fmpov
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:47 pm
by MacReady~
Palmer, maybe you answered this, but why did you target Windows?
Also why do we think scum killed Lars (assuming they did and he disn't assimilate)
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:57 pm
by Bennings~
assuming town!lars it would have to do more with reads i'd assume? unless they were thinking PR but i wasn't getting those vibes
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:00 pm
by Blair~
In post 799, Childs~ wrote:I don't trust my read accuracy; my reads aren't worth shit.
ngl this doesn't sound like you from day one
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:02 pm
by MacReady~
In post 784, Windows~ wrote:Also for those of you who believe Palmer how do you explain the nightkill? It would be pretty dumb of me to kill Lars since he was townreading me. Definitely more so than some others
Why do you think Lars died?
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:04 pm
by Blair~
In post 811, Childs~ wrote:Do you really want me to setup spec and hand the final scum a guide of what to claim?
lol what scum would listen to your setup spec this is wild
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:05 pm
by Windows~
Assuming unreliable cops are too bastard to be in this setup it's definitely 50-50 between me and Palmer.
Palmer Childs is a possible scumteam but me Childs isn't as likely.
Childs is town if Palmer is town.
Trying my best to be objective here: it's best for us to lim Palmer first. Because then if Palmer is scum we've killed scum. Whereas if Palmer is town Childs is town and can vig me. Either way, one more scum is dead by D3.
Whereas if we lim me first and Palmer is scum with Childs, we go into D3 without any more scum dead.
In post 799, Childs~ wrote:I don't trust my read accuracy; my reads aren't worth shit.
ngl this doesn't sound like you from day one
I get the feeling that Childs values their own set up spec more then they value their reads, and most of what they did yesterday was based on set up spec, so :shrug:
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:09 pm
by Blair~
In post 829, Childs~ wrote:But that doesn't stop me from having absolute fury if I actually AM right.
There'd be HELL to pay today if Clarke had flipped town.
And there will be HELL to pay tomorrow if you manage to eliminate Palmer.
this is a game it's ok to be wrong
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:09 pm
by Fuchs~
In post 884, Windows~ wrote:Assuming unreliable cops are too bastard to be in this setup it's definitely 50-50 between me and Palmer.
Palmer Childs is a possible scumteam but me Childs isn't as likely.
Childs is town if Palmer is town.
Trying my best to be objective here: it's best for us to lim Palmer first. Because then if Palmer is scum we've killed scum. Whereas if Palmer is town Childs is town and can vig me. Either way, one more scum is dead by D3.
Whereas if we lim me first and Palmer is scum with Childs, we go into D3 without any more scum dead.
This feels like you copy and pasted my argument, reworded it, and forgot to credit me.
In post 870, Fuchs~ wrote:This page has both somewhat alleviated my concern that childs is not childs, while simultaneously making me very frustrated with childs for their plan yesterday. Like, the attempt to force the town into a game plan, based on a lie, that only actually works if you read is right, and fucks the town over if it is wrong...
While leaving the possibility of misinformation for the town, because if they did die their pm does not flip to clear up where they lied...
But also, this page is the first page that actually reads in a way that makes me fairly confident that they are the same person.
i'm here right now
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:16 pm
by Blair~
I kind of agree with MacReady about Palmer looking much townier than Windows and ready to yeet him
In post 784, Windows~ wrote:Also for those of you who believe Palmer how do you explain the nightkill? It would be pretty dumb of me to kill Lars since he was townreading me. Definitely more so than some others
Why do you think Lars died?
People who believe Palmer is town believe I'm scum. So I'm assuming they believe Lars was killed because if I were scum with Lars I'd have been more likely to assimilate than Lars.
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:20 pm
by Blair~
In post 891, Windows~ wrote:if I were scum with Lars I'd have been more likely to assimilate than Lars.
based on what?
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:22 pm
by MacReady~
Why do you, Windows, think Lars died?
Given that from your POV that you're town
In post 884, Windows~ wrote:Assuming unreliable cops are too bastard to be in this setup it's definitely 50-50 between me and Palmer.
Palmer Childs is a possible scumteam but me Childs isn't as likely.
Childs is town if Palmer is town.
Trying my best to be objective here: it's best for us to lim Palmer first. Because then if Palmer is scum we've killed scum. Whereas if Palmer is town Childs is town and can vig me. Either way, one more scum is dead by D3.
Whereas if we lim me first and Palmer is scum with Childs, we go into D3 without any more scum dead.
This feels like you copy and pasted my argument, reworded it, and forgot to credit me.
Plagiarism is a crime Windows.
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
(Yes I'm aware you said much the same earlier but I feel like that was several pages ago and I wanted to re-state the situation. I know I'm not scum with Childs so I don't want us to risk the less optimal route where a Palmer-Childs team can sneak by for longer.)
Based off the fact that they have been consistently putting out posts that exactly match the tone I'd expect them to have, and they've also been doing it real-time and with content that obviously isn't pre-prepared?
To be fair, it doesn't take much for someone to fake what they feel to be me.
It's just that if they weren't actually me, they wouldn't be able to pull off the all of me that I am. There's only one me, and only I can do me properly. Because it's me, natch.
This is the best thing I’ve read in ages
Also I’ve been townreading Palmer and scumreading Windows since day 1 so my position there’s pretty clear
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:30 pm
by Nauls~
I did also notice the exact same thing when catching up fwiw, but I think Childs is being Childs enough that it doesn’t really matter
Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:36 pm
by Windows~
In post 893, MacReady~ wrote:Why do you, Windows, think Lars died?
Given that from your POV that you're town
Honestly my brain today has been caught up in the "why did scum!Palmer fakeclaim with a fake guilty on me?" puzzle so I haven't thought as much about the "Why did Lars die?" puzzle.
Off the top of my head, in maybe this order:
Scum thought Lars might be a power role and/or
Scum didn't like his reads and/or
Scum wanted to avoid protective targets and/or
Scum wanted to make town drown in confusion and wifom and/or
The assimilation power sounded so cool Lars just couldn't resist trying it out and/or
Scum didn't like Lars's avatar
This is the best thing I’ve read in ages
thing when catching up fwiw, but I think Childs is being Childs enough that it doesn’t really matter