Mafiascum.net

Posted: **Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:02 pm**

In post 8774, mith wrote: 7:2 Nightless is already an EV of 56% for the town

Ew...Where is the closest trash bin?

Posted: **Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:45 pm**

It should also be noted that unlike games with normal day/night cycles, where towns frequently underperform their EVs (especially in low-power-role setups), towns normally overperform EV in a Nightless. (Most likely this is because weak-at-being-town players are more likely to be lynched, whereas scum have no way to get rid of strong-at-being-town players.)

Posted: **Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:46 pm**

I was considering to make the game with night kill, but I realized that if they decided to make it night kill, they can intentionally kill the health player to satisfy "kill all sick player to win"

Posted: **Thu Jun 02, 2016 8:54 pm**

In post 8777, Realeo wrote:I was considering to make the game with night kill, but I realized that if they decided to make it night kill, they can intentionally kill the health player to satisfy "kill all sick player to win"

Make it so kills only work on sick players?

Posted: **Thu Jun 02, 2016 11:20 pm**

That's a smart plan; they can either risk the towniest to get the win or play it conservatively. But the downside that I see is it will be more "hintful" than the current bloc system.

Let's try this. The zombie can kill the healthy player; while all player at the same time give a priority list during night. If the zombie kills a healthy town, the healthiness will

secretly

go to the sick town at the most top of the dead's priority list so the sick town becomes healthy town.

Eg. Jason Wazza is a healthy town killed with priority list of cja>Realeo>Mina>mith>shos.

Cja is zombie, so he is passed.
Realeo is healthy town, so he is passed.
Mina is a sick town, so Mina secretly transforms from sick town to healthy town.

Since this is somewhat "mountainous", Project EV says this is 29.8% town win. Whether the actual EV is higher due to the 10 touches or lower due to nightkill is somewhat a mystery...

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2016 4:24 am**

What most people call "mountainous" (which I have always thought was a terrible name[/rant]) includes a nightkill already. The EV cannot be lower. The same reasoning applies as before - town can do a mass touching day 1 to try to win that way, with a 1/6 chance of success. If they fail, they still have an EV of

at least

29.8% (slightly greater, actually, because they have the small amount of information that at least 1 of the 5 touchers is scum). If we assume they didn't have that information for some reason, their total EV is 41.5%... which isn't an unreasonable EV, but you're not really making full use of the mechanic. (The nightkill curing a sick town doesn't matter at all; the most points town can safely get after 2 days is 6, I think, and there's not really any safe touching to be done after that.)

That's a long way of saying that this is a reasonable setup, removing the theme entirely:

The Bus Coalition

7 Townies
2 Mafia

On day 1, the town may attempt to form a townbloc of 5 players. If all members of this block are town, the town wins immediately. Otherwise, proceed as a normal Vanilla game. (This variant is somewhat interesting in that the scum must make an effort to get one of their members in the bloc, but getting both in is not optimal because town will have slightly better odds lynching from that group until they hit the first scum, and if both are in the group this will happen more quickly on average. In that sense, it sort of has a Resistance feel to it - one baddie on the mission = good; two baddies on the mission = dangerous)

As stated, EV is slightly greater than 41.5% (no time to calculate exactly right now - "at least 1 in this group" is not a simple bit of information to add to the spreadsheet).

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2016 4:51 am**

The thing that I'm having trouble is: when the game is being modded, how the townbloc creation system works?

Do players make their list of "I nominate mith, Realeo, cfj, JasonWazza and RC for townbloc of 5" and it takes 5 vote to go on? If it takes this approach, I am afraid that it may takes forever for the people to vote ("JasonWazza is town? Are you nuts? Go for N instead! "N is scummy as hell!") and when they're finished, they will be not enough time to scum hunt for the lynch.

For instance: We played Micro 601 with 8:1, and when the game ends, the biggest "implicit" town bloc we created was 4 people? This was 1 sk, what if 2 mafia?

The cute thing about

the touch system

is

flexibility

. Ok, so you can't make a townbloc of 5? Sure,

no problemo

. Just make a townbloc of 4, then have each person of the townbloc touch a person outside the townbloc. If the gang of 4 all did it correctly, that's 6 + 4 = 10 points. If the gang of 4 is correct but someone messed up, they still get 6+ points for the 4 townbloc.

Both strategy has their ups and downs. If they go for the townbloc of 5, it will be more informative and they can contain the sickness inside the bloc. If they go for the townbloc of 4, it will be more easy to go for 10 points (in D2) as long as they got the townbloc of 4 correct. If the townbloc of 4 is already wrong, it's game over.

Q: Why people keep calling it mountainous? Can they just call it "classic" or "vanilla"?

EDIT: Now I need to consider the EV for 4 townbloc.

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:46 am**

I mean, presumably in such a game the deadline for day 1 would be longer to compensate, or day 1 would be split entirely into two deadlines, one for the bloc and one for the lynch. The thing about townblocs with a strict majority (vs. the Townbloc setup proposed where the blocs are 50%) is that you only need the people in the townbloc for the vote to succeed.

The logistics are ultimately up to the town - there is an obvious incentive to *try* to form a townbloc (1/6 chance of winning outright), and the negotiations would provide a lot of information to work on if the townbloc failed.

You're right that the touch system has added flexibility - my point in previous posts is that this flexibility doesn't actually add much to the optimal strategy. If you make a bloc of 4, all town, you've got 6 points. If each bloc-er touches an outsider, you win if they all touch town - I'm pretty sure the way to maximize those chances is to pick a single person to touch, not to touch multiple different people. (Consider an example case where the 4 person bloc is all town, and 3 of the 4 think player X is town, but the 4th disagrees. If the 3 are wrong, it doesn't matter who the 4th touches; if the 3 are right, then the 4th should touch X as well to win.) But even if there is a better plan, whatever that plan is should be attempted at the start of the game in a way that you can't autolose, and then you're mostly done with touching.

(It occurs to me that there is a possible improvement with the healing mechanism:

Pick a 5 player bloc. Have 4 of them touch each other first, then all touch the 5th. You win if all 5 are town (1/6). Otherwise, pick 3 of the remaining 4 to touch each other. There is a 1/36 chance that you now have 9 points, if the scum were players 5 and 9. Now players 1-4 are sick town and players 6-8 are healthy town. If scum kills healthy town, they can have their lists set up so that one of players 1-4 becomes healthy, and one of 6-8 can try touching that player. You win in that 1/36 case; otherwise there was scum in players 1-4 or 6-8 and you're probably done trying

The thing is, this only improves the EV if scum actually kill one of those healthy townies - otherwise town can never get to 10 points. There

might

be a slight improvement by taking into account whether or not any of the nightkills are among players 6-8, but I doubt it. Player 9 also becomes unlynchable, at least temporarily, with this plan, because everyone else might be sick, if one scum is in 1-5 and the other is in 6-8. And if player 9 is nightkilled, now there are

two

players who are potentially unlynchable as the potential last healthy town - say 9's list was 1>2, so either 1 is town and becomes healthy or 1 is scum and 2 becomes healthy, but you don't know which is the case and can't lynch either to find out. So, basically, this is all probably a net negative on the EV.)

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:04 am**

As a thought, when a townie dies, is it announced whether they are healthy or sick?

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2016 12:11 am**

Extending the deadline, that's an interesting idea. All the game I played had static deadline that it didn't occur to me for dynamic deadline.

@JasonWazza: It should be no.

Now I need to find a paper to find the possibility the strategy town picked. It didn't occur to me that there is strategy that prevent auto-loss.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:36 am**

Let's try this: an improvement of Zombie Game.

Townbloc +17 Town Vanilla
2 Mafia goon with factional kill

During Day 1, Town may try to create a townbloc of 4 players. If a majority agrees on this townbloc, the deadline will be extended by 48 hours. The townbloc using majority must agree on a player outside the townbloc. If all 4 players of the townbloc + the chosen player is town, the game is won by Town. Everything else, the game proceeds to classic mafia.

So classic 7:2 is

Win by the townbloc: 16,66% (C(7,4)/C(9,4)*3/5)
Win by normal scenario: 29,8% * 83,33% = 24,89%

So the EV is 41,55%, just like the bus coalition. To townbloc of 4 or townbloc of 5, that is the question.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2016 3:16 am**

Yeah, the EV is the same because you're still attempting a townbloc of 5, just in two stages. Another variant:

Progressive Townbloc

7 Town
2 Mafia

During the first X hours of day 1, the town may choose one player to start a townbloc. If a majority agrees on a player, that player then has 24 hours to choose a second player. Those two players have 24 hours to agree on a third player, and so on until a bloc of five has been selected. If all five players are town, the town wins immediately. If at any point the town or bloc cannot agree on the next player, or if a bloc of five is formed which contains at least one scum, start the actual deadline and proceed as a Vanilla game.

(You could mess with the dynamics further by adding a scum instant win condition, though I haven't found one I like. In the original version with a townbloc of 5, both scum being in the bloc could be an instant win like the split-in-half townbloc, but then an indecisive bloc would mean a "neighborhood" game of 1 scum in the bloc and 1 scum out, which isn't as interesting as the Resistance-like element of scum wanting 1 in but not 2. And in the progressive version, it's obviously too strong a condition, since an early scum pick can likely push through his buddy. Something like "1st pick is scum *and* 5th pick is scum" could be interesting I guess, though not particularly elegant - probability is a little better than 1/36, though it's not clear what optimal strategy is as 1st pick scum; assuming 2nd and 3rd are always town, the probability would be 1/27 (2/9*1/6 - there are 6 slots left for the other scum to fall in), but it may not be best for 1st pick scum to always go for the instant win, in order to muddle the information available in the Vanilla part.

Anyway, if you added a scum instant win condition you'd probably want to adjust the numbers and/or limit the factional kills in some way.)

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2016 2:44 pm**

24 is probably too fast, considering weekend V/LAs and the like. Apart from that, I like the setup, and agree that it probably shouldn't have a scum instant win condition.

One interesting property I note here is that a scum townbloc member has no incentive to pick anyone in particular other than trying to look town, in much the same way that scum in a (two-faction) normal game have no incentive to scumhunt other than keeping up appearances. I consider this to be a feature, rather than a bug.

Posted: **Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:14 pm**

Un named BP variant

1x BP One Shot Vig
2x Even Night BP Townie
2x Odd Night BP Townie

1x Mafia Goon
1x 1 Shot Mafia Strong Man

Posted: **Mon Jun 06, 2016 4:22 am**

In post 8787, callforjudgement wrote:24 is probably too fast, considering weekend V/LAs and the like. Apart from that, I like the setup, and agree that it probably shouldn't have a scum instant win condition.

One interesting property I note here is that a scum townbloc member has no incentive to pick anyone in particular other than trying to look town, in much the same way that scum in a (two-faction) normal game have no incentive to scumhunt other than keeping up appearances. I consider this to be a feature, rather than a bug.

Yeah, maybe just 5 days total for the whole process; town could use most of it arguing about who to pick first if they want. And of course you could allow provisional picks (the first player chosen in particular can provisionally choose a second to take effect immediately, since they are the only vote that counts there). The neat thing is that there's no incentive for scum to stall the process once their chosen - the bloc has already failed.

It's true that scum, once chosen, should just try to look town, but trying to look town has some subtle differences in this situation that make it interesting. If the bloc fails, the town knows at least one of the bloc is scum, and possibly both scum are in the bloc, so there is a small incentive to pick a lynch from among those players rather than from the outsiders. Given that, you would want players chosen who would be more likely lynch targets than yourself. It's a small thing, since it's a big enough group to hide in, but it would be interesting to see how it played out if scum were chosen early.

Posted: **Mon Jun 06, 2016 4:28 am**

In post 8788, drmyshottyizsik wrote:Un named BP variant

1x BP One Shot Vig
2x Even Night BP Townie
2x Odd Night BP Townie

1x Mafia Goon
1x 1 Shot Mafia Strong Man

My first approach was to run a computer simulation to calculate the EV, but the strong man and the 1 shot vig causes me to hiccup when coding.

Posted: **Mon Jun 06, 2016 4:57 am**

its fairly even when you brute force it

Posted: **Mon Jun 06, 2016 6:58 am**

I'd be tempted to try a massclaim in that setup, assuming the townies know which parity they are. Also assuming Vig is full BP, I suspect he should always claim Odd... that way if the scum want to try to kill him night 1, they have to use the Strong Man shot (if Vig claims Even, they can take a normal shot first and then use the Strong Man if it fails). Not totally sure how scum should claim, but I'll bet we can find a EV >50% in all cases. Unlimited BP is really strong, but I'm not sure making the Vig 1-shot BP is much better?

Posted: **Mon Jun 06, 2016 7:06 am**

In post 8792, mith wrote:I'd be tempted to try a massclaim in that setup, assuming the townies know which parity they are. Also assuming Vig is full BP, I suspect he should always claim Odd... that way if the scum want to try to kill him night 1, they have to use the Strong Man shot (if Vig claims Even, they can take a normal shot first and then use the Strong Man if it fails). Not totally sure how scum should claim, but I'll bet we can find a EV >50% in all cases. Unlimited BP is really strong, but I'm not sure making the Vig 1-shot BP is much better?

I was thinking this, my problem with it is, that the strongman's only use at that point, is to kill the vig, and what it means for town is that the vig's best bet is to shoot someone on the on night of the BP claim.

Not to mention, pretty sure Vig should hold his shot until his either claimed or there is a no kill that night, as his probably fairly safe all things considered.

Posted: **Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:57 am**

I'm going to run is in the micro queue, also I'm going to make the even and odds not know which night they are(to prevent MC), and the vig is a 1 shot bp 1 shot vig

Posted: **Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:04 am**

Strongman someone N1, then you just shoot someone twice if they don't die.

Worst case scenario then is lynching a Odd night BP townie, because that means the game can end that night (assuming vig+mafia both shoot a different Even night).

While stopping the MC, it also screws the town over i think.

In fact i think MC is the best case scenario for both alignments.

Posted: **Tue Jun 07, 2016 11:16 am**

In post 8795, JasonWazza wrote:Strongman someone N1, then you just shoot someone twice if they don't die.

Worst case scenario then is lynching a Odd night BP townie, because that means the game can end that night (assuming vig+mafia both shoot a different Even night).

While stopping the MC, it also screws the town over i think.

In fact i think MC is the best case scenario for both alignments.

Ok so MC happens
1 vig
6 BP townies

Spoiler: Day 1

Spoiler: N1#1

Spoiler: N1#2

Spoiler: N1#3

Spoiler: N1#4

So town is more likely to lose night 1 than mafia if, but after that it swings back into towns favor in most cases. I don't think a MC breaks this.

Posted: **Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:24 pm**

I'm not sure I totally follow your notation, but obviously massclaim is a bad idea if the townies don't know their parity. The Vig claiming only helps the Mafia; this should only happen D1 if he's in danger of being lynched.

I still haven't worked through what the correct massclaim strategies are in the known-parity case; regardless, I think the known-parity version is far more interesting (and more of a puzzle), and unknown parity is questionable in Normality (I don't think this case has ever been clarified on the wiki or elsewhere, but I personally don't like the idea of a player having a modifier that he is unaware of). I think it's probably worth running that way just to see what, if any, massclaim strategy the town tries to use, and what the scum do in response.

Posted: **Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:33 pm**

it follows a basic c language style of method. the first number is the day every number after that is a different possibility of the prior number 1.2 is day one option two 1.4.5 is day one option 4 sub option 5.

Posted: **Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:58 pm**

I'd say having an unaware modifier isn't Normal, but it's entirely acceptable to have a "your role is either X or Y but you don't know which" style of role in an Open. (Dethy is a good example of that; it's imbalanced and emphasizes puzzle solving over scumhunting, but I don't have any rules-based issues with it being in the Open queue.)

Does the rule that Open setups have to be Normal technically still exist? Because that isn't really being enforced atm (e.g. I'm pretty sure White Flag would fail a Normal review under the current Normal guidelines).

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