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Post Post #900 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

correct you are
In post 714, northsidegal wrote:i noticed a specific towntell from pintu, and even though it's one that if we were in a game together i might expect him to fake as scum, it happened before i replaced in. perhaps it's bad to use meta the way i do on someone whose meta is developing every game, but i'm trusting it for now and i haven't gotten any bad feelings from what i've read otherwise.
i'm sheeping this, basically

even if NSG is scum, she's DEFINITELY not scum with pintu

so the only way pintu is scum this game is if NSG just sucks at finding towntells for him
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Post Post #901 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:26 pm

Post by Mathdino »

disclaimer: i obviously have not read any of pintu's posts either except from the first page and since i replaced in

so if anyone has something super scum indicative for him, i'd like to see that worked out

i've played with pintu-scum before and i skimmed a towngame of his once so i might be able to help
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Post Post #902 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:39 pm

Post by Oxy »

In post 897, ofrhz wrote:
In post 890, Oxy wrote:
The thought processes and frustrations only make sense coming from town who is accustomed to a different meta
, and seems like a really oddball style to go for as scum.
ruru said earlier she's never played mafia anywhere else, only read the games
Yeah but she said she has read other, shorter day games. If I were playing a shorter day game on another site, I could see myself approaching the game with seemingly odd ideas because most of the games I read are on here. Am I making sense? On the other hand, this seems like a really weird thing for scum to fake. It's subtle, and I was the only one who gave it any credibility earlier, but it continued throughout the game. I just don't see it as a scum play. I mean, if it is a thought out scum play, then props to ruru.
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Post Post #903 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:41 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 724, pinturicchio wrote:2. This could be a longshot, but someone brought the fact that ruru didn't said that, with her vote, Drixx was on L-1. Could this be a townslip?? Remember that she's a newbie so maybe she didn't know that was something you should do; if she was scum, her partner would've told her in their chat what L-1 is while talking about strategy or something like that... I know this is stretch, but I've been scumleaning almost all the game and I'm trying to decide if she's my best option to vote along with scioness.
also this is town as fuck
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Post Post #904 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:43 pm

Post by ofrhz »

Why would skitter go through such great lengths try and understand Oxy's POV after the Drixx wagon (i'm referring to the bulk of the conversation on pages 20-30)? Is anyone familiar with scum!skitter able to corroborate that skitter would do this as scum
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Post Post #905 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:47 pm

Post by Oxy »

I for one, don't think it's safe to assume that she did make an honest attempt to understand my PoV. If she truly did, that would of course be a townie thing to do.
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Post Post #906 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:49 pm

Post by Mathdino »

eghhh
skitter's posts do look townish goddammit

yeah so i think drixx lynch or no lynch is gonna be optimal here
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Post Post #907 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:58 pm

Post by Oxy »

What posts and why for skitter town read
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Post Post #908 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:01 pm

Post by Oxy »

Clearly you're discounting ofrhz and ruru as lynches because you don't think you can get the lynch to happen? Is there something ringing scum for you in either of their games, or it's just you haven't identified town in them yet?
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Post Post #909 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:29 pm

Post by Scioness Sajj »

Why is no lynch optimal?
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Post Post #910 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:32 pm

Post by Drixx »

In post 896, Mathdino wrote:
In post 893, ofrhz wrote:I need either Oxy or Mathdino to ELI5 (literally, fucking 5) why skitter is scum. Sorry if you feel like you're repeating yourself.
my pleasure

i have a good track record of reading NSG, and she's likely town

the posts that everyone thinks are scum-indicative about oxy are literally town-indicative things that scum don't say

i believe process of elimination is the strongest tool for catching scum

my PoE pool is then

{Scioness, skitter30, ruru, ofwheuotahxfzsohtez, Drixx}

i THINK i'm seeing a deeper level of analysis in scioness's game here than in her scumgame and i'm clearly not getting a scioness lynch today even if she's scum anyway

ruru and you are apparently obvtown to my townread. i agree on ruru, somewhat less agree on you.

so keeping in mind that one of these townreads is probably wrong, there's almost certainly scum in {skitter30, Drixx}. if none of these townreads are wrong, the scumteam is literally skitter30/Drixx, which I haven't seen anyone rule out.

Edit: okay well i guess i'm townreading ruru harder than you are now
Do me a favor and tie your ego to me flipping scum please. Just something like "We'll see who is good/bad at mafia when you flip scum" will suffice.
In post 906, Mathdino wrote:eghhh
skitter's posts do look townish goddammit

yeah so i think drixx lynch or no lynch is gonna be optimal here
A no lynch is so completely not optimal is such an overwhelming majority of situations in the newbie games that you get scum points just for suggesting it as a viable choice for day 1 in this game. If you're half as good at this game as you want us to believe, you should be able to explain far better than I can why a no lynch is terrible and even delineate the very few situations where it would benefit us to no lynch.
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Post Post #911 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:33 pm

Post by Drixx »

In post 909, Scioness Sajj wrote:Why is no lynch optimal?
It's not. Like ... that post pinged me so hard because of the false dichotomy.
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Post Post #912 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:35 pm

Post by Scioness Sajj »

I couldn't think of a reason why it would be so I asked. Thanks.
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Post Post #913 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:47 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 907, Oxy wrote:What posts and why for skitter town read
i was searching around the thread and came across this
In post 94, skitter30 wrote:
In post 88, Oxy wrote:@Skitter30 I apologize if I used the wrong pronouns. I'll do my best not to let it happen again.
My reads are trending kinda similar to yours, so I'm trying to figure out what's bothering me about them. I guess your confidence this early on is making me a little bit wary. Like confidentally townbinning ruru and orfhz this early is a little weird, and the fact that you don't seem super interested in re-evaluating them is kinda bothering me. It kinda feels to me like you want to check the box of 'finding townreads', and once you've done so, you don't think you need to revisit the read.

Like you seem very eager and try-hard, and like you very much do not want to misstep. I feel like you often say the 'correct' thing, something you think people want to hear, or something that will make you look town. Like the reason you gave for why you want to be a VT.
[snip]
Like I'm overall getting the vibe that you're saying these things to demonstrate you're acting in a pro-town fashion. It kinda feels artificial, like you're making sure to include phrases like this so that everyone sees how much thought you're putting into your reads. It feels like you're telling me that you're forming reads, instead of showing me that you are.

All of this together is making me kinda wary on your slot, but I'm still trying to work out if I think these are eager *newb* tells (ie you're eager to play and want to make sure you're doing it right) or *scum* (ie you're looking for towncred so that you don't get lynched) tells; I haven't come to a firm conclusion either way yet.

I do think I'm going to keep my vote on you for now though cuz this is the best lead I have; although I'm not confident on scum!you, it is no longer an RVS vote as I'm getting more scumvibes from you right now than anyone else.
so clearly skitter is aware that nuance is a standard towntell now, and she might've improved since her last scumgame (i checked, could only find something last september)

this kind of thing is still hard to fake though
and would require skitter to have a pretty decently sized scumrange
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Post Post #914 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:51 pm

Post by skitter30 »

Messy post, I know, but I have a lot to say, sorry.

@oxy, , can you give me a tldr of where I've stopped playing townie? You townread me before the drixx thing and in the immediate aftermath so I still don't get why you thought that was a reason to scumread me like three days later.

Like eli5 why you're scumreading me right now.

--

@math - I find posts like the one you quoted in to be scummy. They feel pocket-y and kinda artificial to me.

--

@drixx, - I don't understand why you think this is an unusual view of the gamestate from me.

I was in between class on my phone when I wrote that, but more specifically:

-> I don't think the 1v1 between oxy and scioness was theatre.

-> ruru's eth0s vote way back when felt like she didn't know where to go in that gamestate so she was trying to start a push there. I don't think she starts a lolpush on her partner when there's a direct 1v1 going on and it would be easy to take a side on that instead.

-> I don't think scioness starts a push on her partner with like 48 hours left in the phase when she isn't going to be around for the rest of the phase

-> I still think oxy was trying to pocket pin and that dynamic doesn't read as partners to me

Beyond that, I think that if there's scum in {scioness/oxy} ruru is a good place to look for a partner since she was kinda trying to avoid that 1v1 and direct it elsewhere.

I don't have strong opinions on who else may or may not be paired up with each other.

--

@oxy, - as has been rehashed like eight billion times, I did not view my vote as being an implicit agreement of your plan because I thought we were still discussing it, and I thought you wanted to lynch him if he hadn't shown up in 24 hours, and I don't lynch people who I don't think are around on principle (I will relax this at deadline btw, but I don't believe in doing so with like a week left on the clock).

--

@math, - I don't think anyone is hard-townreading ruru besides oxy. I was townreading ofrzh and kinda vaguely town on oxy at the time and ruru was somewhere around nullscum. I thought oxy was pushing for a lynch on drixx. At the time oxy was townreading all three of us.

Also oxy's been hard-townreading ruru/ofrzh since literally page 2, and explicitly refuses to re-evaluate those reads and I couldn't get him to explain why despite multiple attempts.

--

@oxy, - I still think that strongly implies that you wanted to lynch drixx if he was inactive during that timeframe. Three days or whatever later, when we rehashed the wagon, you told me that that's not what that post meant. While it was happening, there was nothing to indicate that you did not want to lynch drixx if he hadn't posted in 24 hours, but there were a lot of things that indicated that that *was* what you wanted, including 398 and you coaxing me to revote when I unvoted when I said I felt uncomfortable and explained in great detail why.

Like I'm not giving you townpoints for giving an opinion that matches my own three days after the incident in question when there's nothing to indicate from your posting *at the time* that that's what you were intending.

--

@ofrzh, - ick self-meta, I know, but I don't think anyone is particularly qualified to answer that here. That is not something I would *ever* do as scum. I panic-lurk. I don't engage people who scumread me. I just avoid conflict as much as possible.

--

@oxy: Why don't you think I tried to understand your POV?

--

@math, - why the fuck do we ever no-lynch here? Like I know I'm town but I'd *much* prefer you lynch me over a no-lynch cuz you'll at least get info from how the wagon was formed ffs.
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Post Post #915 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:52 pm

Post by northsidegal »

responding to things

wow, and pedited by a huge wall
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Post Post #916 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:55 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 910, Drixx wrote:
In post 896, Mathdino wrote:snip
Do me a favor and tie your ego to me flipping scum please. Just something like "We'll see who is good/bad at mafia when you flip scum" will suffice.
wat
are you trying to 1v1 me here
i literally haven't even stated a scumread on you, i'm just gathering townreads and your ISO hasn't towntold
also if we're 1v1ing and are TvTing doesn't that make us both bad at mafia

i'm super obviously not taking you up on this lol
In post 910, Drixx wrote:
In post 906, Mathdino wrote:eghhh
skitter's posts do look townish goddammit

yeah so i think drixx lynch or no lynch is gonna be optimal here
A no lynch is so completely not optimal is such an overwhelming majority of situations in the newbie games that you get scum points just for suggesting it as a viable choice for day 1 in this game. If you're half as good at this game as you want us to believe, you should be able to explain far better than I can why a no lynch is terrible and even delineate the very few situations where it would benefit us to no lynch.
cut the aggression, thanks
happy to do your job for you though

Why No Lynch is terrible (from someone known for breaking setups):

  • It's low information. The gamestate evolves when town gains information relative to scum. Not lynching anyone reduces town's ability to perform VCA the following day, or analyse the dead townie/scum's reads.
  • It's mathematically worse for town to be in even numbers. For example, with 1 scum in 4 players, town has a 25% chance of lynching correctly, while 1 less townie (giving 3 players) produces a 33% chance.
  • This one should be pretty obvious, but you can't lynch scum if you don't lynch at all.
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Post Post #917 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:56 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 916, Mathdino wrote:
  1. It's low information. The gamestate evolves when town gains information relative to scum. Not lynching anyone reduces town's ability to perform VCA the following day, or analyse the dead townie/scum's reads.
  2. It's mathematically worse for town to be in even numbers. For example, with 1 scum in 4 players, town has a 25% chance of lynching correctly, while 1 less townie (giving 3 players) produces a 33% chance.
  3. This one should be pretty obvious, but you can't lynch scum if you don't lynch at all.
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Post Post #918 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:56 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 914, skitter30 wrote:@math, 906 - why the fuck do we ever no-lynch here? Like I know I'm town but I'd *much* prefer you lynch me over a no-lynch cuz you'll at least get info from how the wagon was formed ffs.
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Post Post #919 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:57 pm

Post by skitter30 »

I'll be back in a bit.
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Post Post #920 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:57 pm

Post by Mathdino »

okay yeah no lynch is no longer optimal

i too would prefer to lynch skitter30 than to no lynch
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Post Post #921 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:59 pm

Post by northsidegal »

just kidding, don't want to read anything except maybe this page
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Post Post #922 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

sigh
VOTE: skitter30
sorry
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Post Post #923 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:00 pm

Post by Scioness Sajj »

We are not lynching skitter. We will lynch skitter if she doesn't get nk by day three.

Couldn't find it in Google - what's exactly a scumrange?
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Post Post #924 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Locked