Mafiascum.net

I really feel Tux is the scum designated mislynch on which they win the game.

In post 722, Hoctac wrote:Lul, where's that extension, George?

I was kinda sus Penpow might be scum redirecting from a scum!ceejay lynch, but actually that doesn't make any sense considering he could just go for me instead.

VOTE: DkKoba

Subject to change based on what ceejay's rep comes in and does.

actually a good explanation would be that it's just you + PP and that he steered away from your lynch
it doesn't really explain why PP steers away from CJ lynch however

Kilga + Hoctac more likely?

What's everyone's thoughts here?
But still, I don't see how I'm voting anyone else then Hoctac today

I would like to believe my enomis suspicion did not come out of nowhere; I mentioned a general willingness to vote him in 495. (This willingness came about from his total lack of a case he was willing to push and having his RVS vote still down; see his 431 and my 464.)

Said willingness increased due to enomis's attitude regarding being a hammer vote on an unknown: for full progression, see Holden's 568, enomis's 575, my 577, enomis's 622, and my 632. This by itself wasn't fully worthy of a vote switch but it still rankled and got my mind's attention a bit more on enomis than it had been before.

The final impetus to change came about as a result of PP asking why people wanted ceejay lynched (634). PP and I had a small back-and-forth on the issue - see 693, 694, [pst]697[/post], and 699. This got me doubting ceejay's scumminess a bit (725), so I went back and did a quick reread of why enomis was voting for ceejay (easy enough given enomis's low post total), and found that he had pretty much reason beyond "gut" but was still pushing the lynch pretty hard. I state this in the post where I change my vote (728). If you desire the specific evidence for this, going through enomis's ISO should be sufficient, but meaningful ceejay/enomis interactions prior to enomis's vote for ceejay are found in 443, 444/449, 450, and 530 (enomis's vote is in 532). I didn't see a good reason to vote for ceejay as a result of that exchange. After that is multiple instances of "hey let's lynch ceejay" without any further attempt explain to people why they should vote for ceejay (575 and 620, the latter of which mentions "gut").

I didn't mention this at the time, but I had also started to doubt my Hoctac vote - even with Hoctac at 3 votes, I felt like I had spent so much of the day trying to sell people on my Hoctac case, but no one was buying it (this is why I posted 528), and only Holden seemed to buy in after the restatement of the case in 567. I recalled at least a couple of people having townreads on Hoctac without engaging with any of the pushing I had done on the case (I have no particular post reference for this atm, but I can try to dig up something for you later if you really want), and it was so incredibly frustrating, but also perhaps indicative of the quality of the case, and between that and the overall collection of Hoctac's responses over the course of the day, I started thinking "...maybe this really is just a stupid wordswordswords D1 case that isn't actually meaningful". The enomis case felt a lot more solid by comparison, since it was based primarily around (a lack of) voting reasons, so I decided to go with what I felt better about.

I did not bother mentioning Hoctac in my D2 opener because Hoctac was not on the enomis lynch (I mention this in 869). Also, this may be divergent from the norm here, but one of my general philosophies is to avoid continuing D1 cases into D2 unless there's a good reason to do so, because train/flip analysis is stronger than any wordswordswords game people may be playing on D1. This is not to say that I think Hoctac is town or that I will never vote for them again, of course, only that I have dunked my D1 case on them into the circular file.

In post 899, Night 3 Roses wrote:All of this is just a really bad angle to use as a scumread, ever. Especially with both PP claiming not being here at deadline and me in my usual weekend VLA. Would it have been possible? Sure. Maybe. Who knows. But what is scum!indicative of Tux for saying that?

It demonstrates lack of caring who gets lynch. Like, yes, maybe Tuxedo and Hoctac swinging back to ceejay isn't enough to find a fifth vote. But if ceejay is your preferred lynch, then you have to at least to get him lynched if the opportunity presents itself (which is did with Koba's vote for ceejay). The worst case scenario is that not enough people go for it and you go back and lynch enomis anyway. Scum Tuxedo would not have cared which of the two got lynched, and Tuxedo's actual play is more indicative of that mindset. I would have expected Town Tuxedo to say/do something like "well now that ceejay isn't getting replaced I'm returning my vote to him and still prefer his lynch but I am okay with going back to enomis if needed to make sure someone gets lynched".

I haven't read the recent posts properly yet but could be Roses + Penpow. Would also explain why Penpow really needed to kill DKoba.

Roses, you never scumread me yesterday other than OMGUSing me after voting you. Are you now trying to paint it as a "wow, we scumread him the whole time and he obviously should have been the lynch, why did you guys lynch, enomis"?

I don't buy it all.

Okay, I read through more of what you said. You questioned townreads
/not lynching me like 4 times in the last few posts, mentioned how my wagon "disappeared quietly" but didn't state a single reason for why I'm actually scum. Loving the OMGUS, guys. Just need to figure out your scum partner now.

Also, that's an incorrect and lazy assessment of my wagon. Look at the reasons why 2 of the 3 voters changed, rather than painting it as "disappearing quietly" without looking at any specifics.

hoctac i tried talking to you about your push on us yesterday because it really really stinked

is it partly omgus? Hell yes. But I really feel that you are scumreading us because you *have* to and have been trying to set that up on D1

I it's Roses + Penpow/Tuxedo. I want to townread Kilga.

If it is Penpow, then it means I actually am a blank since he definitely protected himself in face of DkKoba.

Pedit: Why would I to scumread you? When I did yesterday, I was a wagon so why attract more negative attention and a possible OMGUS?

Also, if Tux is the "designated mislynch" as you put it, why do I need to scumread you here and attract and a possible vote?

That actually makes sense lol

In post 905, Hoctac wrote:Also, that's an incorrect and lazy assessment of my wagon. Look at the reasons why 2 of the 3 voters changed, rather than painting it as "disappearing quietly" without looking at any specifics.

that's not quite how i play this game

I left for my weekend VLA with you being top wagon (IIRC), and when I came back i saw a lynch that I didn't even saw coming from ten miles away. That just really felt like scum didn't want your lynch happen there and fed my scum!hoctac thoughts. not to mention your actual reasons for scumreading us D1 are still terrible imo.

I was joint top on 3 maybe. Holden said he was voting for info. Kilga unvoted and specified exactly why. If you think it's suspicious how my wagon dismantled, you think it's exactly me and Kilga, and he decided to bus yesterday for some reason and then pivoted.

in my experience the kind of wagon you had either does 2 things:

it goes to L-1 very quickly and it's mostly scum-driven because of how easy you got to L-1
it stalls out and goes away mostly because scum are not interested in that lynch

it fell perfectly in the second part

hoctac i've got a really short fuse when it comes to people scumreading me (us in this case) for poor reasons especially when I feel they are trying to not engage us over them

if ur town here, you'll need to get out of your scum!roses read
if ur town, i strongly urge you to reread us and see if those reasons you say actually apply because they don't

Hmm, well, I'm not 100% set on it. We have time and I'll probably reread at some point.

In post 907, Hoctac wrote:Pedit: Why would I

have

to scumread you? When I did yesterday, I was a wagon so why attract more negative attention and a possible OMGUS?

In post 908, Hoctac wrote:Also, if Tux is the "designated mislynch" as you put it, why do I need to scumread you here and attract and a possible vote?

Could you address this though?

In post 915, Hoctac wrote:

In post 907, Hoctac wrote:Pedit: Why would I

have

to scumread you? When I did yesterday, I was a wagon so why attract more negative attention and a possible OMGUS?

In post 908, Hoctac wrote:Also, if Tux is the "designated mislynch" as you put it, why do I need to scumread you here and attract and a possible vote?

Could you address this though?

I said smt about you making sense there and you may have noticed my tone towards you has changed a bit since those posts…
But I have to talk to Datisi first because the implications of you being town means i'm dead wrong with at least 1 of my townreads in kilga/tux. I doubt there was 0 scum on the lynch D1.

Alright.

In post 916, Night 3 Roses wrote: I doubt there was 0 scum on the lynch D1.

FWIW this is also part of my Scum Tuxedo conclusion, because I also doubt it was five townies given how it came to be, and four of the votes are three town flips and myself, so. (I alluded to this at the end of my opening post today but haven't bothered pushing it since I am not confirmed town to anyone else.)

In post 898, Night 3 Roses wrote:

In post 623, PenguinPower wrote:I mean - I think it's interesting that Dk was the leading wagon and now we're sitting between Hoctac and ceejay as counterwagons with no Dk wagon existing.

That's why I'm looking for reasons as to why people unvoted. Saying that it isn't possible to get a wagon on Dk is not accurate.

with both Dk and CJ flipping town, how likely do you think hoctac is still town? That wagon dissapeared quietely, and I can't even pinpoint what actually happened that dismantled this wagon. I feel it's between you and Kilga + hoctac as the team here.

In post 679, PenguinPower wrote:No - we're at like 12 hours left with competing wagons on Hoctac and Ceejay, but I prefer Dk, especially for their horrible posting over the past two pages, and others are willing to join if we can get 5.

how is hoctac NOT a good lynch? I already spent time and effort in explaining why I townread both DK and the Tux

In post 707, PenguinPower wrote:Dk is a much better lynch than ceejay at this point. Come on Hoctac.

Don't make me bat my beautiful penguin eyes.

what has hoctac done to deserve a townread?

In post 762, PenguinPower wrote:Hoctac is Town.

Seriously, what?

You realize that I replaced in with like 14 hours to deadline and got deathtunneled on Dk? Right?

It's almost as if after four townies flipping my reads might change...almost.

In post 901, Night 3 Roses wrote:Kilga + Hoctac more likely?

This team is gut pinging me.

In post 903, Hoctac wrote:Would also explain why Penpow really needed to kill DKoba.

No, it doesn't. I would have just deathtunneled them again. Not lying...as scum, I never kill Dk there.

In post 907, Hoctac wrote:If it is Penpow, then it means I actually am a blank since he definitely protected himself in face of DkKoba.

Nah - he was way too obvious at eod that he wasn't shooting me.

In post 920, PenguinPower wrote:

In post 901, Night 3 Roses wrote:Kilga + Hoctac more likely?

This team is gut pinging me.

what does this mean?

-D

It means that I had the same thought it may be them, but don't have anything with strength to back it up.

To be fair, I haven't had a whole lot of time to interact in real-time this game which is a major problem for me getting reads.