Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[Almost50]

Spoiler:

Also claim 1-shot Vig

[Almost50]

I want you to know that I do NOT intend to effort AT ALL. I only hopped in to save the fay for dave, as I know how hard it is to find replacements these days. I may or may not read later, but certainly not at the time being.

P.S. Have there been any claims I should be aware of?

[iamausername]

that would be a terrible role to fake claim, because whoever actually has the role would just shoot you, so i think it's safe to assume that Almost50 is being truthful about his role, no need to check for counterclaims.

doesn't mean he isn't scum, obviously. getting an extra kill seems like a pretty high priority scum choice.

all things considered, i continue to be happy with my vote.

[Something_Smart]

Well, we can leash it now.

[Almost50]

hi A50

i've caught scum

wanna help me flip it ?

Sorry I missed this in my first visit. I see you're voting Gypx. So what's the case?

[DrDolittle]

Well, we can leash it now.

i think this takes priority and we can play today like a double day?

[Clover Ebi]

I don't really have much to say about the matter at hand. Perhaps using hurt tags for the 2nd vig on 2 people is a good idea incase the redirector is in play

[Green Crayons]

Using vig early game is generally anti-town, because it's more likely to be used against town than scum.

I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to using it to get rid of a lurker elim, but that would be A50 himself, so I don't see the benefit in using it now and see plenty of risk.

Maybe

if we get a flip, then some serious discussion about associatives, I'd be much more comfortable with that +1 kill.

At this point, the thing that bothers me about A50 is the scummy replace out. I don't think an elim based on that alone is bad, but I'm also not particularly sold on it being the best option.

[Something_Smart]

Redirector would screw us now no matter what; they don't need to know the vig target to redirect the shot.

[Something_Smart]

Using vig early game is generally anti-town, because it's more likely to be used against town than scum.

By this logic executing early game is also anti-town. Using the vig on a scummy player who was likely to get executed anyway is fine.

[Green Crayons]

That we have to eliminate to even hit scum is entirely consistent with saying we shouldn’t use a second kill option early on when the pure numbers of scum:town ratio are not as good as they would be later on (if we don’t elim scum), or before we have a flip to discuss associatives (if we do elim scum).

[Green Crayons]

So what's the case?

Interested in this synopsis tbh

[Something_Smart]

That we have to eliminate to even hit scum is entirely consistent with saying we shouldn’t use a second kill option early on when the pure numbers of scum:town ratio are not as good as they would be later on (if we don’t elim scum), or before we have a flip to discuss associatives (if we do elim scum).

The first bit is a fallacy (it's not like our odds of killing scum depend on the order in which we use the kills if we assume they are independent), the second bit is valid but I don't really feel that associatives will really help us enough to save that flip for later, considering all the confounding factors (most notably, that A50 himself might be scum and we might get to see his flip sooner if we use his shot sooner). And the associative argument cuts both ways-- if we have two town-controlled kills before D2, we have (roughly) double the chance of having a scumflip to work with by then.

[Green Crayons]

okay.

[Green Crayons]

So who are your top vig candidates?

[DrDolittle]

That we have to eliminate to even hit scum is entirely consistent with saying we shouldn’t use a second kill option early on when the pure numbers of scum:town ratio are not as good as they would be later on (if we don’t elim scum), or before we have a flip to discuss associatives (if we do elim scum).

The first bit is a fallacy (it's not like our odds of killing scum depend on the order in which we use the kills if we assume they are independent),

I dont think this is true. saving the vig shot for later acts as a double day hedge if we don't manage to get scum.
its only independent if you don't consider mafia kills.

[Something_Smart]

So who are your top vig candidates?

Haven't the foggiest clue. This is why crowdsourcing is good.

[word321]

Am I the only one that dislikes the idea of a 1-shot vigilante entirely?
Particularly, I find a PGO way more townie, but that may be only my opinion and not alignment indicative by itself; but there r so many variables with scum prs in general and the raw odds of actually hitting town with that one shot its not even funny, even if we dnt consider the possibility of scum

[word321]

Even if the kill dsnt land on the objective, there is

still

the possibility of "simply blaming the redirector"

[word321]

So unless we r on the scenario that it lands exactly on a scum and scum dsnt have or dsnt want to use the redirector, every single other one is useless

[word321]

I dnt know why scum would lie on that situation either, and I dnt know about how to feel about simply giving it a night to take the shot (or recieve the shot)

[word321]

I genuinely think it is less EV for town

[word321]

VOTE: A50

[Something_Smart]

Am I the only one that dislikes the idea of a 1-shot vigilante entirely?

Yes. Vig is significantly better than PGO.

[Umlaut]

Hi A50! Somehow your predecessor's wagon cooled down significantly after a hella shady replace-out, but I think (and I doubt I'm alone in this) that you should claim anyway.

Why?

It's moot now because he did it, but why? I could maybe see if we were short on time but not with over 5 days on the clock.