FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I will throw you a bone and say I think Rider's read progression on more than just Avenger is odd (that one was just more jarring than some others I've been monitoring, like Rider's Assassin read). And that I agree with Lancer's point about signal to noise re:Rider.

Though speaking of Rider, I just realised I made a note that I wanted to know what Rider was alluding to in #225 with "it's something I'm keeping an eye on."

Probably should have asked about that a while back but eh, weekend happened.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I will throw you a bone and say I think Rider's read progression on more than just Avenger is odd (that one was just more jarring than some others I've been monitoring, like Rider's Assassin read). And that I agree with Lancer's point about signal to noise re:Rider.

Though speaking of Rider, I just realised I made a note that I wanted to know what Rider was alluding to in #225 with "it's something I'm keeping an eye on."

Probably should have asked about that a while back but eh, weekend happened.

I'm liking Lancer for town. Going back over the iso after all the talk died down reset me back to my original thoughts on this slot. There's just a lot of good solid town stuff in their posts. They tend to do that reverse thing, where the vote comes first and then the reasoning, but the reasoning is there.

I agree Rider's progressions aren't well explained in some areas, 308 and 314 were the most detailed info about reads, I think.

I still want to hear one of these days why you thought there were scummy associations between Archer and me.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I meant Saber's point. Getting my pointy weapon wires crossed.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I meant Saber's point. Getting my pointy weapon wires crossed.

Been there done that.

[Servant Rider]

Alter, you gonna be around for a bit?

[Servant Alter Ego]

For a while yet. Maybe 45 minutes to an hour.

[Servant Rider]

Reason I ask is if you want to talk about Moon Cancer now, we can. If not, I'm going to bed.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Mostly I just want to know how you're reading them and if you think their comments about your progressions hold water, or are fair?

I've just started to go through Caster's reads progressions. Do you have any opinions about 199 and 204?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

What's that second link meant to be? 208?

[Servant Alter Ego]

Yeah, 208.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Moon Cancer, I'd like to know what you thought of 199, too.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I'm tripping going through this iso. like up to 249 I'm just...what the hell?

I am indeed using Mastermaker to sort unknowns, yes. To be clear, I do have a bias toward unknowns on the townier side of things - hence the "posi-null lean" comment while vote-supporting Alter Ego - but I would prefer an unknown to someone I'm pretty sure will flip town

This is an awful position. Just elect the person who's going to get killed night 1 so they can't be killed night 1. This is the most obvious thing in the world, wake up.

They initially wanted to vote Archer or me (or themselves) Killed night 1? Really?

[Servant Alter Ego]

Y'all don't leave me alone in this thread. I need a reality check.

[Servant Rider]

I'm not at a point I'm comfortable with Moon Cancer, which is why I'm surprised you seem to townread them to the degree that you do.

Saber and Moon Cancer both adhere to the "let's use the Master upgrade for a cop flip" school of thought. I'm simplifying a bit, but I'm not trying to discuss setup spec in any great depth. Doing that instead of picking someone quite likely to be town carries a risk; you have a much higher chance of getting a scum master. If you get a scum master the only way town wins is by exceptional day play. I believe that scum gets a significant advantage because they must in that situation; they're trading a member for this power up.

For the above model to be something you want to do, you have to have a great deal of confidence in your ability to not only game solve but convince everyone else that you're right. Here's where my problem with Moon Cancer comes in. Saber, in my opinion, has that level of confidence. Moon Cancer doesn't. Further, Moon Cancer is completely disinterested in doing anything other than setup spec, with the exception of the very recent 900 and the odd question here or there.

In my PT, I have a pile of three people at the bottom who need to die ASAP and a small pool of people who I think the final scum is in. Moon Cancer resides in that second pile.

As for 900, it's semi fair. Avenger I've been all over the place with. Assassin I'm not entirely sure what they're talking about.

Pedit: Alter, I'm not sure what you're saying, but I'm pretty sure Caster is saying "vote the towniest person so they don't die N1"?

[Servant Alter Ego]

Pedit: Alter, I'm not sure what you're saying, but I'm pretty sure Caster is saying "vote the towniest person so they don't die N1"?

If that's what they were saying it's an incredible oversimplification. Towniest and on the wrong track, or influencable is not going to be N1K'd. Most dangerous looking, on the right track, possibly crumbing a doomsday weapon, etc. That gets N1K'd.

I don't think there's an apparent threat to scum of that magnitude in the game at this point, but still. This is why I'm torn about the trade-off of a guaranteed day 2 for a formidable player versus the damage they can do to scum later in the game.

At that point in the game, AT BEST, having Archer and me as the players he was willing to vote was blind to the game state.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Maybe I'll feel better after I finish looking at their progression. It's going to have to wait until the morning.

Thanks for chatting about Moon Cancer with me.

[Servant Berserker]

Did you miss 791 or are you choosing not to respond to it?

Changing tack. Rider, if you don't mind, would you give a complete list of your reads and your reasoning for each of them?

The latter.

And why are you ignoring it?

Pedit: No, I don't think I will. You know who I want to vote for today.

Wow, are you actually mafia? Lol.

Wow, are you actually mafia? Lol.

Ahhh!

Players who refuse to post a complete reads list with reasoning is mafia. Wow, this game's going to be easy.

Here is a complete quote wall of the context involving the post I pointed at. No one got the right answer, I'm very sad, but let me begin to explain why this exchange is + for Moon Cancer and Rider, and - - - ! for AE.

In this exchange, Rider is standing for their principles and making moves for what they want to happen, to happen. Challenging them is Avenger and Moon Cancer.

This whole exchange comes out neutral for Avenger, who was already kind of on this track for a while, and I don't really think his demanding a list of reads is alignment indicative. Nor is poking at rider calling them scum. I guess I already think they are town, so it's just not chaning my opinion is what I mean.

Rider on the other hand, standing up for themselves with no explination, no need to fight about it, just... doing it.

Huge plus.

Moon Cancer poking Rider about answering 791 when it was being ignored, huge town plus for info and alignment gathering.

Here's what I don't like about AE stepping in there. The timing.

What is the purpose of AE's comment? The sarcasm doesn't elicit new reads from anyone, doesn't intone anything that stands for them as a position (they don't really take a side) and they don't allow Rider to answer for their things. I know Rider was unabashed about it in general, but part of this is allowing a player who is being poked to BE POKED.

But they didn't. They stepped in and helped control the narrative and make Avenger look silly.

I think, personally, one of Assassin or Caster has to be scum WITH AE, as a result of this. I think this is the kind of post that someone who is looking to more or less goof on Avenger and make them look silly and unpalletable for a vote would do. It attacks their character and standing without having to take a stance and being very under the radar.

And you might say "you're reading too much into it, it was a joke" but I feel as if there must be a motivation for AE to feel the need to step into that 3 man conversation instead of lettingit play out, JUST to post that. And I can't find a good town reason to have done it.

At that timing, with those words?

AE looks a lot worse. And when you consider AE's stances on the current wagons, things start to fall into place.

[Servant Berserker]

I'm Up on Moon, Rider and Shielder.

I'm down on Caster and Archer.

[Servant Berserker]

I scum read Berserker irl.

You know for someone who says they are so very personally attacked by me not having confidence in your reads or your alignment (???) you sure like to take low blows about what kind of person I am.

If you have a problem, talk to the mod. I'm being well within the boundaries, you're not. Fucking chill.

[Servant Berserker]

1. Shielder
2. Saber
3. Archer
4. Lancer
5. Rider
6. Caster
7. Assassin
8. Berserker
9. Ruler
10. Avenger
11. Moon Cancer
12. Alter Ego
13. Foreigner
14. Beast

Avenger
Moon
Rider
Shielder
Saber (I have felt bad about them... but some of their posts feel really good? This is gonna be a gut read I flucuate on I bet...)
Ruler (Feels Good Man)

----
In no Order
Foreigner
Alter Ego
Archer
Assassin
Caster (Ugh, this one I'm back and forth on too. I have a strong town read on them because of a gut thing I felt and saw and it was so chefs kiss good. But these last pages and everything around them are souring me. I think... I'll just put them down here and reevaluate later, ezpz.)
-----------------

No fucking Idea:

Beast
Lancer

Remind me to read (or someone takl to me) about Beast and Lancer.

[Servant Berserker]

First list is "people I feel are town"

second list is People I think are scummy.

Third list is I have no fucking clue

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Rider, have you been using your notes PT for long?

Could you talk about the first note you took about me and give me a rough time frame of when you took that note?

[Servant Assassin]

Fuck it, let's go.

VOTE: Caster

Money where your mouth is, Caster lovers.

yes scum outing and pushing a scum wagon. love to see it. remember, this game is swingy based on day 1/0/whatever this is, so scum will probably push hard near deadline to get a scum voted master.

What are your reads, currently?

I townread you and assassin. I scumread moon cancer and shielder. I do not have much of an opinion on anyone else.

this is interesting because i scumread archer and assassin and to some extent moon cancer, so one scum in each bucket of a scums reads? hmm

i feel like caster is scum. i also think that foreigner is scummy for driving paranoia in townies.

Did any of your earlier scumreads change? change in intensity? How would you rank your scumreads?

archer has faded as topscum a bit, but mostly because archer has gone inactive. interesting that the pressure on archer disappeared at the same time archer did though. hmm
ruler is a bit strange but not really in the scumbucket. not yet anyway.
assassin is scummy but as i said, has some good townposts, so might just be in with a bad crowd.
caster, rider, foreigner, and maybe lancer? are my current bets for the scum team. foreigner i go back and forth on though. its really only rider and caster that im confident in.

i don't believe you believe the things you are saying

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I kind of just think Shielder is planning for an early death and this is an attempt at confusing interactions. That said, I don't plan to go through any of that if we do flip Shielder, so it's a pointless exercise if that's the goal.

[Servant Assassin]

this sequence is interesting. shading a good post by berserker, then as an afterthought adding some attempt at LAMIST that makes no sense from an actual town mindset. if youre town why would you think scum would want you mastered? or who would the scum on that wagon be?

i mocked her post because it's really illogical and she doesn't have a good explanation

why wouldn't i think scum are voting me? do you think a 5-person wagon here is going to be pure town? by numbers alone it's unlikely, and scum are probably gonna want to get on my good side by voting me up b/c they had a sense i could be manipulated