Open 837: Cop Killer - Endgame

[Galron]

Galron, what do you think of my points on Lickety? It's more than just the JAQing

LicketyQuickety - I think my biggest issue with Lickety is that at times it feels like he's going through the effort of telling the thread how he is thinking, instead of just actually thinking. 210 ("I feel you are being manipulative, but if you explain I will move on"), 252 (the unprompted addition of "I'm not scumreading Auro because I expect him to do this as scum"), 402 (why is he saying both that T3's read is weird but also that he agrees with it??), 404 I hadn't noticed this previously but using "until" in that post when presumably he meant "unless" is an odd mistake, 415 feels super stiff and 416 as Pav called out is really dubious because he's basically inviting Roden to be townread if Roden backs off his LQ push. That mindset feels a lot more likely to come from someone who wants to defuse the fight rather than someone who actually thinks Roden might be scum.

I don't know that telling everyone what he's thinking rather than explaining why he's thinking that isn't inherently scummy. I think that could be done as a method of gaining reactions in a genuine manner. It's not uncommon, and I do it myself sometimes. As that relates to his reads list, I would agree that it is more likely to come from scum than from town. If you're going to do a reads list where you put your thoughts on the slot down, it should be more developed than a bunch of vagaries. Otherwise it comes across as forced, and it's not all that useful. I don't find 415 stiff per se but maybe a bit labored if that makes any sense, but it does show a thought process of some sort, which is something I look for in that type of post. 416, on the other hand, is a silly post and looks like it's there to trap Roden in a Catch-22. If Roden moves his vote it's "Roden moved his vote due to pressure, and that's scummy," and if Roden doesn't move his vote it's, "Roden didn't reevaluate like I asked, and that's scummy." In 804 he actually makes a good point that just because Roden is conftown that doesn't mean Roden's scum hunting is any better than anyone else's, but he does neglect to state that maybe it should carry more weight because we all know it's not coming from a biased perspective, or at least a scum-biased perspective.

So in all that, and I think I missed a couple of things, you did a good job of pointing some things out, but it doesn't move the needle a whole lot for me wrt Lick.

As for my read on you, even moderately skilled players can pull out facts with a little analysis, so same thing, it doesn't lead me to anything more than give you a few townie points. And I should add that if we weren't in multi-ball I'd probably give it more credence than I am right now. (Please don't think I'm calling you a moderately skilled player because from what I've seen from you I think you're one of the top players on the site -- I would put you in the highly skilled category.) I'm thinking now it may just me being a bit paranoid because early on I was picking up pocketing vibes from you.

ebwop: that first sentence should say that I don't know that it is inherently scummy, not isn't.

[Galron]

Overall, the string of arguments that he's gotten into do come across as him trying to score points in bad faith rather than to genuinely sort people, so maybe I scum read him more than I was thinking 10 minutes ago.

[Galron]

I hate having to rely on meta. It's one of the reasons that color/shape theme game was fun, but if Enchant is disliking T3 bc of all of the meta reads T3 has, I have to jump in a bit to defend T3 because I've seen that a lot from him, and I don't think he's to the point where he's able to replicate that as scum.

[Enchant]

I never state reason why i dislike T3, you putting words in my mouth.

[Enchant]

Listen, i am pretty simple minded.

I can't provide big post of naie fkls and other abbreviations, if i feel someone mafia, i state so.

[Roden]

Hello i am Doc on E-1.

I saved Roden (well i actually tried to kill but ok).

Unvote pls ty.

I had a feeling this happened last night...

UNVOTE:

So if Enchant is telling the truth, this tells us a couple things.

- Ice team either misread my lack of WIM as PR lurking or wanted a low info kill.

- Ice team wasn't worried about potential town threats making a case against them Day 2.

I think this suggests the Ice team consists of players who haven't really played with me before, and are either generally town read and/or are active and have been investigative.

We still have time in the Day and I want to give LQ more time to talk and answer questions. It kind of seems like he's going to be the default elim today, and I while I do agree he does seem scummier under scrutiny, I still have some doubt. He hasn't bothered to engage with me since I became conftown and he doesn't really seem to be paying attention to the game, which makes me think if he's scum then he's just given up. If he does flip red he's likely been bussed, I think.

[Roden]

Could everyone give their reads on Bingle, Pav, and GL? With Enchant claiming Doc, the PoE continues to shrink and I think at least one of these three have to be scum.

My impression of Bingle is that they're playing a very strong game that makes me want to town read them. Tonally they're town, good mechanics advice, pressuring people who are otherwise just coasting by on content, and following through on suspicions and leads.

Pav feels a little hedgey to me when looking through his ISO. He addressed LQ vs me but didn't want to commit to any reads there, calling us TvT but also shading both of us multiple times. Handed out a bunch of town reads early on with little reasoning. He stoked the flames quite a bit on the Salsa wagon as well but never really got any heat for it. I asked Bingle for his thoughts on Pav's reaction to the scum slip accusation, and the reason I did was because Pav's response to the Frozen "slip" felt very controlled tonally, and the joke about mild refrigeration seemed like it was meant to defuse the situation more than anything else. I don't think it was necessarily a slip myself, but Pav almost seem panicked like as if he

had

perspective slipped even though his use of the term "Frozen" was reasonable.

GL I want to town read but he's been getting a surprising amount of suspicion from people who know him better than I do. I still think his reason me early game were awful, and his repeated attempts to justify them even after I became conftown don't sit right with me, though I think that's slightly more likely to come from town. I do think its strange that neither scum team seemed to consider him a threat though, then again the same could be said about Bingle.

VOTE: Pavowski for now.

[T3]

I like Galron's 899 idk why

[Pavowski]

Could everyone give their reads on Bingle, Pav, and GL? With Enchant claiming Doc, the PoE continues to shrink and I think at least one of these three have to be scum.

My impression of Bingle is that they're playing a very strong game that makes me want to town read them. Tonally they're town, good mechanics advice, pressuring people who are otherwise just coasting by on content, and following through on suspicions and leads.

Pav feels a little hedgey to me when looking through his ISO. He addressed LQ vs me but didn't want to commit to any reads there, calling us TvT but also shading both of us multiple times. Handed out a bunch of town reads early on with little reasoning. He stoked the flames quite a bit on the Salsa wagon as well but never really got any heat for it. I asked Bingle for his thoughts on Pav's reaction to the scum slip accusation, and the reason I did was because Pav's response to the Frozen "slip" felt very controlled tonally, and the joke about mild refrigeration seemed like it was meant to defuse the situation more than anything else. I don't think it was necessarily a slip myself, but Pav almost seem panicked like as if he

had

perspective slipped even though his use of the term "Frozen" was reasonable.

GL I want to town read but he's been getting a surprising amount of suspicion from people who know him better than I do. I still think his reason me early game were awful, and his repeated attempts to justify them even after I became conftown don't sit right with me, though I think that's slightly more likely to come from town. I do think its strange that neither scum team seemed to consider him a threat though, then again the same could be said about Bingle.

VOTE: Pavowski for now.

I like Bingle and GL for town, though I feel more confident about Bingle.

You seem ready to buy Enchant's doc claim. I am not so sure.

[Roden]

Could everyone give their reads on Bingle, Pav, and GL? With Enchant claiming Doc, the PoE continues to shrink and I think at least one of these three have to be scum.

My impression of Bingle is that they're playing a very strong game that makes me want to town read them. Tonally they're town, good mechanics advice, pressuring people who are otherwise just coasting by on content, and following through on suspicions and leads.

Pav feels a little hedgey to me when looking through his ISO. He addressed LQ vs me but didn't want to commit to any reads there, calling us TvT but also shading both of us multiple times. Handed out a bunch of town reads early on with little reasoning. He stoked the flames quite a bit on the Salsa wagon as well but never really got any heat for it. I asked Bingle for his thoughts on Pav's reaction to the scum slip accusation, and the reason I did was because Pav's response to the Frozen "slip" felt very controlled tonally, and the joke about mild refrigeration seemed like it was meant to defuse the situation more than anything else. I don't think it was necessarily a slip myself, but Pav almost seem panicked like as if he

had

perspective slipped even though his use of the term "Frozen" was reasonable.

GL I want to town read but he's been getting a surprising amount of suspicion from people who know him better than I do. I still think his reason me early game were awful, and his repeated attempts to justify them even after I became conftown don't sit right with me, though I think that's slightly more likely to come from town. I do think its strange that neither scum team seemed to consider him a threat though, then again the same could be said about Bingle.

VOTE: Pavowski for now.

I like Bingle and GL for town, though I feel more confident about Bingle.

You seem ready to buy Enchant's doc claim. I am not so sure.

Town gains nothing from discussing a Doc claim, it'll resolve itself tonight. It doesn't matter whether or not I buy the claim, and mafia doesn't need to know how much any one of us believes or doubts the claim.

Do you have anything to say about my read on you?

[Pavowski]

Could everyone give their reads on Bingle, Pav, and GL? With Enchant claiming Doc, the PoE continues to shrink and I think at least one of these three have to be scum.

My impression of Bingle is that they're playing a very strong game that makes me want to town read them. Tonally they're town, good mechanics advice, pressuring people who are otherwise just coasting by on content, and following through on suspicions and leads.

Pav feels a little hedgey to me when looking through his ISO. He addressed LQ vs me but didn't want to commit to any reads there, calling us TvT but also shading both of us multiple times. Handed out a bunch of town reads early on with little reasoning. He stoked the flames quite a bit on the Salsa wagon as well but never really got any heat for it. I asked Bingle for his thoughts on Pav's reaction to the scum slip accusation, and the reason I did was because Pav's response to the Frozen "slip" felt very controlled tonally, and the joke about mild refrigeration seemed like it was meant to defuse the situation more than anything else. I don't think it was necessarily a slip myself, but Pav almost seem panicked like as if he

had

perspective slipped even though his use of the term "Frozen" was reasonable.

GL I want to town read but he's been getting a surprising amount of suspicion from people who know him better than I do. I still think his reason me early game were awful, and his repeated attempts to justify them even after I became conftown don't sit right with me, though I think that's slightly more likely to come from town. I do think its strange that neither scum team seemed to consider him a threat though, then again the same could be said about Bingle.

VOTE: Pavowski for now.

I like Bingle and GL for town, though I feel more confident about Bingle.

You seem ready to buy Enchant's doc claim. I am not so sure.

Town gains nothing from discussing a Doc claim, it'll resolve itself tonight. It doesn't matter whether or not I buy the claim, and mafia doesn't need to know how much any one of us believes or doubts the claim.

Do you have anything to say about my read on you?

100% agree on point one.

Short version on me is, you're wrong.

Long version is, I always feel useless in the early game, so I basically always hedge. I've learned not to be surprised when this gets me scumreads. I'm not sure why you think I sounded "panicked" at getting called out for the "slip", but you're the second person to try to scumread me over it, GL being the other.

Of course, you enjoy the benefit of being confirmed town, so the only thing for me to ponder on there is my own playstyle and tone and why it struck you that way. Of course, I don't know how much anybody is going to gain if we go and rehash that now. I think everybody has drawn from that what they're comfortable drawing.

GL, though... That dude scares me. I've only encountered him as town so far (in an ongoing game we won't speak of) but everything about his posts (here and there) tells me he could play a mean scum game. I could easily see him pouncing on my 'slip' as a way to test out a push on me. He's since walked back that read, and I'm not sure how to read that, yet. Given the push on me didn't get much traction, I'm inclined to lean scum on that point, even though I'm still towny on the slot generally.

Uh, this was supposed to be about your read on me, but you're conftown, so ...

[Pavowski]

He's since walked back that read, and I'm not sure how to read that, yet. Given the push on me didn't get much traction, I'm inclined to lean scum on that point,

I realized that the grammar of this is not great.

What I mean is, he started out scumreading me over the "slip" but reversed course as it failed to get much traction. Said reversal in absence of said traction pings scummy.

Sticking to the scumread in the absence of traction would have felt townier.

Still towny on the slot overall though, as I said.

[mc esther]

Could everyone give their reads on Bingle, Pav, and GL? With Enchant claiming Doc, the PoE continues to shrink and I think at least one of these three have to be scum.

obviously i fundamentally disagree with the pool youve outlined. frankly, i dont want to compromise on lickety, but on top of that, it's a very impractical pool, i simply dont see sufficient support for guiltylion or pavowski eliminations in the thread. but sure.

ive talked about guiltylion a moderate amount, and nothing's really changed here, similar level of certainty to the darby townread.

pavowski is very strongly town to me, but i think the difference in the type of read is relevant. pavowski's town because his play would be a rather self-destructive scumgame; this comes with the pretty obvious objection that it hasnt actually got him eliminated, it is something that can be faked as a wifomy gambit. im basing my strong townread on the assumption that his low-commitment playstyle doesnt really facilitate the sort of "lol imma signal a kill then head into day 2 making weird inflammatory remarks about the kill and flavour, totally gonna get townread" strategy scum!pavowski would be going for here, and i think that's almost certainly true, but it's probably an assumption better assessed by other players. most of the players here seem to agree, but i guess it's significant that the most prominent dissenters (guiltylion and roden) are strongly town. i can imagine some very specific circumstances that would cause me to revise this read, but i dont think theyre very likely and dont really want to share them right now; youll know and understand if it happens.

bingle. eh. i dont get the townreads on him. i havent had a lot to do with him, galron, or auro; the three of them are in various ways (and this is difficult to quantify) not really on the same wavelength as me? i dont think this is alignment-indicative or a comment on the quality of their play, sometimes you (i?) just dont get people -- or, to quote an ancient proverb, "game is hard". the most positive thing i can say about bingle is that he handled the pavowski drama towards the end of day 1 really well, culminating in a slightly opaque (contextually, in a good way) vote on salsabil; but that's kinda in the same basket as theory-posting imo, it's a situation where there's a correct play for pretty abstract reasons not so directly mired in the specific content and rhetoric of posts. there isnt much negative to say about him either though. a licketyquickety mafiaflippity would look really bad for him after he's spent two days trying to downplay the case as cheerled by scum, and going at guiltylion (contrast galron, who has similar opinions but has been more measured in his suspicions), but that's very much an association tell, not something i see as scummy in a vacuum.

[mc esther]

i should elaborate more on pavowski, because my read there doesnt directly engage with the idea that he slipped, though i have covered this earlier in the thread. i dont believe he unthinkingly came into day 2 with the same sort of speculation he was warned against day 1, it's not like he hadnt read the thread. if he is scum, day 2 was a calculated gambit, not a mistake.

[Auro]

Strong townreads: Mc Esther, Galron

[T3]

I hate having to rely on meta. It's one of the reasons that color/shape theme game was fun, but if Enchant is disliking T3 bc of all of the meta reads T3 has, I have to jump in a bit to defend T3 because I've seen that a lot from him, and I don't think he's to the point where he's able to replicate that as scum.

I’m really just having a hard time forming any reads any other way this game.

[GuiltyLion]

(Please don't think I'm calling you a moderately skilled player because from what I've seen from you I think you're one of the top players on the site -- I would put you in the highly skilled category.)

GL, though... That dude scares me. I've only encountered him as town so far (in an ongoing game we won't speak of) but everything about his posts (here and there) tells me he could play a mean scum game. I could easily see him pouncing on my 'slip' as a way to test out a push on me.

y'all gotta stop, you're making me blush

not really game related, but my scumgame is fundamentally flawed in that I don't enjoy playing scum the way I enjoy playing town, and I feel like it shows the longer a game goes on. I kinda see it more as a duty to scumbuds and to everyone else having a workable game of mafia more than I do something that feels good. if any of you all know how to actually have a good time playing scum please teach me postgame haha

[GuiltyLion]

Could everyone give their reads on Bingle, Pav, and GL? With Enchant claiming Doc, the PoE continues to shrink and I think at least one of these three have to be scum.

I definitely relate to the PoE shrinking feeling, but I think we should probably wait for a real confirmation of Enchant's claim before limming somebody we're otherwise townreading. The circumstances under which he made it are still fairly suspicious. I think if somebody's in my blind spot it would be T3. I'm still fairly sure on Bingle town by play, and I think other than my kneejerk dislike of Pav's D2 opening he doesn't strike me as agenda-driven. Where did you see him unfairly fanning the flames on the Salsa wagon?

I do think his refrigerated joke was meant to defuse my push on him and I can see what you mean by him being a bit measured tonally, but I feel like he might behave that way as either alignment. He doesn't strike me as defensive or a hothead who picks fights, so I don't think I'd expect that from him as town. And I still think the better piece of AI info was that he actually didn't understand my specific accusation when he posted 723, when I thought about it more I feel like if he

had

inside knowledge of Ice Team flavor he would have immediately realized how he fucked up, especially because Bingle had already asked the mod for public confirmation of kill flavor.

[GuiltyLion]

@GL: Not sure why stirring the pot is a bad thing; often, provocation can result in more interesting, readable states.

it's not always a bad thing! That's why I said I had to put my tinfoil hat on to make that take

can I get from you 4 or 5 scumreads? I get that you said you're not too pressed about nailing scum here, but I don't feel I have a great understanding of who your suspects are

@Auro can you respond to this

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

I think this is putting him at L-1 again? I'm fairly confident here at this point, especially if Enchant's doc claim is legit, I don't see myself being talked into another lim today

[Bingle]

VC 1.09

Galron (0)-

Enchant (1)-

Auro

Pavowski (0)-

Almost50 (0)-

Roden (3)-

GuiltyLion, LicketyQuickety, Auro

Bingle (0)-

LicketyQuickety (1)-

Salsabil Faria

GuiltyLion (0)-

Salsabil Faria (7)-

T3, mc esther, Pavowski,

Almost50

, Galron,

Roden

, DArby

-ELIMINATED

DArby (0)-

Auro (0)-

mc esther (0)-

T3 (0)-

Not Voting (1)-

Galron

With

13

alive, it takes

7

to eliminate.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-12-07 10:00:00)

- Dec 7th 10:00 GMT

Thinking about the implications of a roden kill for optics for a moment, what does scum get if Roden flips town? We know the two main wagons yesterday are TvT at that point, and thus are disincentivized from analyzing the Salsa wagon especially strongly. It also mildly points away from GL, LQ, Auro, because it gets rid of an easy path for them to take today (well obviously the cw was on scum!) and I already pointed out how I think it looks good for Darby. So my take is that ice team is probably in…

I was just looking at the VC to see who that actually pointed to and it’s all sorts a borked. Auro and gal are both voting twice and I apparently don’t even have a vote.

[Galron]

@GL: Not sure why stirring the pot is a bad thing; often, provocation can result in more interesting, readable states.

it's not always a bad thing! That's why I said I had to put my tinfoil hat on to make that take

can I get from you 4 or 5 scumreads? I get that you said you're not too pressed about nailing scum here, but I don't feel I have a great understanding of who your suspects are

@Auro can you respond to this

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

I think this is putting him at L-1 again? I'm fairly confident here at this point, especially if Enchant's doc claim is legit, I don't see myself being talked into another lim today

Is it appropriate to ask someone to respond to a question and then put someone else in quickhammer territory?

[GuiltyLion]

Is it appropriate to ask someone to respond to a question and then put someone else in quickhammer territory?

I did think about a possible LQ self-hammer, but IMO Auro already had time to respond the first time and nothing is stopping him from giving me an answer to that question tomorrow with more information if there is an unexpected day end.

My main intent is to better sort Auro, so if he dies it won't matter that he didn't answer anyway, other than the instance where he's town and has reads that he desperately wants us to follow up on in his absence. Which is not the sense I have gotten from his play this game.

[Bingle]

Galron (0)-
Enchant (1)- Auro
Pavowski (0)-
Almost50 (0)-

Roden

(3)- GL LQ
Bingle (0)-
LicketyQuickety (1)-

Salsa

GuiltyLion (0)-

Salsabil Faria

(7)- T3 mc esther Pav

Almost50

Galron[/vote]

[post=601]Roden

Darby
DArby (0)- Enchant
Auro (0)-
mc esther (0)-
T3 (0)-

Not Voting: Bingle (previously on Salsa)

Here's the actual end of day wagon.

[Bingle]

Galron (0)-
Enchant (1)- Auro
Pavowski (0)-
Almost50 (0)-

Roden

(3)- GL LQ
Bingle (0)-
LicketyQuickety (1)-

Salsa

GuiltyLion (0)-

Salsabil Faria

(7)- T3 mc esther Pav

Almost50

Galron

Roden

Darby
DArby (0)- Enchant
Auro (0)-
mc esther (0)-
T3 (0)-

Not Voting: Bingle (previously on Salsa)

Here's the actual end of day wagon.

This time without broken tags!

So... Off Salsa wagon is: GL LQ Auro Enchant Me

On Salsa wagon is: T3 mc esther Pav Galron Darby

I think the latter group is more likely to have shot Roden as scum, with GL and LQ being even less likely of the off wagon voters. Even given the possibility of a shooting for doc scenario, there were surely other doc suspects that could have been shot that weren't already easy wagons to build.

It's worth noting that the old VC shows more support on Roden than there actually was, but given that no one was complaining about the VC accuracy, I doubt anyone noticed that before just now, so we can assume scum thought Roden was pretty viable. Given that, if enchant flips doc I think we look for scum in T3/Esther/Galron tomorrow.