I typed most of this this morning before I left when we were floating around post 878. Holding off/not finishing it ended up work out nicely anyway with what I've seen since then. I know it's long, but I'm going to give the thread a chance to breathe for a while after this and I'll be back sometime later tomorrow assuming we're not already in Night 2 by then.
Well this will be fun...Post 864 may have just blown the game wide open, and I think post 871 may have just unintentionally solved the game. Here are my updated reads and likely final reads of the game:
Town: Corwin, Rad, Cheap, Whiskey
Scum: BlueBlood, Bella
The timeline for Day 2 so far:
-Bella states not to rush Day 2 after BlueBlood and I cross-vote.
-Rad posts some VCA and mentions that Spartan had named BBT/Bella as a very possible scum team (I had forgotten this until Rad's 864.)
-Rewind. Spartan is the night-kill Night 1 after parking his vote on BlueBlood and naming BlueBlood/Bella as a scum-team.
-BlueBlood comes in shortly after Rad's VCA post and deposits three god-awful steamers, throwing shit in every direction and hoping it sticks somewhere.
-10 minutes later, Bella, WHO HAS BEEN ON EVERY E-1 WAGON SO FAR ALONG WITH BLUEBLOOD (including on both of the players who have flipped green so far), and barely 24 hours into Day 2 (after saying not to rush the vote), drops in and leaves a naked vote on Corwin to put him to E-1. Despite "not quite willing to give him a town-read yet", has literally followed his every step and been on every wagon with him.
To Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap, regardless of what you think of me as a person/whether or not you think I'm scum, flipping BlueBlood today essentially sorts 3 of the 7 remaining players. It sorts BlueBlood (obviously), myself (unless you somehow think Somnus/BlueBlood has been scum-theater), and Corwin (he'd essentially become lock-town). If Vasex, Spartan, and myself were all wrong about BlueBlood and he has played the most baffling, borderline game-throwing town game ever, so be it. Let me remind you that Vasex was quick-hammered by BlueBlood, Bella parked her vote on Vasex and left it there, not seeming even remotely bothered by the possibility of a quick-hammer (but now wants everyone to take their time on Day 2 despite having just created a very early E-1) and Spartan is now dead. All of this happened after there were no takers by town to hammer Spartan.
If any of the 4 of you still think I'm scum, that's fine.
You can even flip me today
. I offer this as someone who currently has zero votes on them. I don't mind. If we go with me today, once I flip green, flip BlueBlood and Bella back to back days. If I'm wrong, so be it. It's not a game of perfect information. And considering we lost the most OP town power role that exists in Newbie Games due to a quick-hammer on Day 1,
this is about as good of a chance of winning this game as you could ever dream of after that Day 1 debacle.
But to those of you who are still going along with BlueBlood and Bella, I suggest you look at where it has gotten you so far, and if you continue to follow them, you will be the next lemming going over the cliff (fun fact: lemmings don't actually do this, but I digress). They've already set up Corwin and Cheap as the next two/final Day eliminations after it became clear I wasn't going to be a super easy mis-lim today.
Take a quick browse through Spartan's ISO, particularly posts 273, 279, 282, 287 (this is a good one), 289 (another really good one), 294, 296 (this is what ended up happening!), 300, 302, 306, etc.
Look as far back through the game as you're willing to under the pretenses of the exact scum-team being BlueBlood and Bella, and tell me you somehow disagree. Hell, if you don't have it in you to go all the way back to the beginning, at least go to late Day 1 and read from there, and ESPECIALLY read what has transpired so far on Day 2 under the pretenses of the aforementioned team.
Literally THE ENTIRE game makes sense when you look at it through those lenses.
Again, after that, tell me with a straight face that you somehow disagree.
If you still have your doubts about me, you should be on-board with flipping me today and then flipping them back to back, no questions asked, after I flip green
.
I humbly offer to Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap one of the following two options. I obviously can't make you do either, but it would be greatly appreciated and would significantly advance your win-con if you take me up on one of the following:
1.) Flip me today. Again, I don't mind. I'll be green. But after you do,
FOLLOW THIS SOLVE
. Once I flip green, you'll see that I'm not partnered with anyone, have no reason to personally protect Corwin/Cheapside, and that my motivations are clean. The only risk here is that somehow, Bella is town and helped mafia in every single vote and play in this entire game. I don't think that's the case, but it's still technically a risk.
2.) Flip BlueBlood. This sorts his slot, mine, and Corwin, and makes my solve very very likely. If after a red flip here, Bella mysteriously flips town on Day 3 (I don't think she will), it still wouldn't lose the game. Whoever is still alive would have presumably a 3P eLo on Day 4. So even if this somehow is not the exact solve, you have a free ticket to Day 4 eLo unless you want to tell me that there's zero scum in BlueBlood and Bella. After finishing this post and reading back, at the very least from Day 2 and looking at the wagons that have transpired so far,
NO ONE should think that that's a reality.
I believe Rad was "town-binned" to help contribute to mafia winning in eLo via his mis-vote. Same can potentially be said for Whiskey who I'm pretty sure, prior to this post, was going to be killed Night 2, and still might. The same pivot to town-reading Spartan occurred the moment it became clear that town wasn't interested in hammering Spartan (check out 852, Whiskey. This was essentially you marked for dead). How do you go from wanting to hammer someone 7 posts and MAYBE a day into replacing in, to "Spartan is probably town, Bella"? This dude ain't town. And if he is, we were screwed from the start.
As a reminder, as of this post, I have zero votes on me and am in no danger of elimination. I offered myself up as an elimination on Day 1 to blow open the game and didn't receive any takers. With my flip, the scum team's narrative would have been in absolute shambles going into Day 2. Considering how much more information we have now, they probably should have taken me up on my offer. And I'm now offering it again if needed.
If you somehow think I'm doing this to try and save a hypothetical Scum!Somnus partner of Corwin/Cheap despite making the same offer on Day 1, again, I am offering myself as the Day 2 elimination to the 4 of you.
As a further reminder, Corwin started Day 2 saying that the vote today should be between myself and Cheap. He then followed it up later on in the day and mentioned that he had gotten myself and Spartan mixed up when he could have stayed on me. If he had, Bella inevitably would have put me at E-1 or waited for one of the other three of you to put me at E-1 and she would have hammered at some point after. Once it became clear that Corwin was town-reading me and had me mixed up with Spartan and that Cheap was town-reading me, the plan to try and eliminate Somnus on Day 2 quickly vanished. BlueBlood quickly abandoned his vote on me, pivoted to Corwin, and even tried to bargain with me to join him. They've since been putting out feelers for thoughts on Cheapside as well. He and Bella have been lining up Cheapside and Corwin to be the last two Day Eliminations since.
To Bella, if I'm wrong (and even if I'm right), it's nothing personal. But if I am wrong, this is just kind of how it goes when you're on every E-1 wagon, including the two that have both flipped green so far, have very quickly created another one nearly at the start of Day 2, and have been on the same page as BlueBlood every step of the way (despite allegedly not quite being ready to town-read him). Scum often throw their partner right in the middle of their reads and then gradually town-read them. Hell, both of you currently have the EXACT scum-pool of Somnus, Cheapside, and Corwin. What are the odds considering you don't quite town-read him? In order for you to be town in this game, it would now require everyone to assume that you were essentially an honorary mafia member.
There's not a rational conversation I could have with BlueBlood here, so no offense to him personally outside of the confines of the game, but I'm not interested in his thoughts on this post and will not be engaging with his response to this. My bullshit filter is in full effect.
So that leaves 4 other people. For this to happen, 3 of the 4 of you would need to be on-board. Again, I can't dictate or force anyone to do anything. I'm 1 player in the game out of the remaining 7. But since I know that at an absolute bare minimum, 3 of the 4 of you are town (and I'm now pretty sure all 4 of you are), this should be a no-brainer.
So again, to Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap: Do we have a deal?
P.S: As someone not even in danger of elimination here, I offer you this: Don't you think that maybe, JUST MAYBE, if I'm scum in this game, I easily join the pack and push Vasex through as "a policy vote", get away completely free of blame afterwards (ESPECIALLY based on our early interactions together), and then have my pick of Corwin or Cheap to just go along with on Day 2? If I'm scum, with the way this game has gone, we'd be in Night 2 right now and I could have hammered Corwin or jumped on the suspicions of Cheap. And that JUST MAYBE, I kill BlueBlood Night 1 if he's town?
Instead, out of the three players who were hard town-reading me on Day 1, Scum!Somnus decided it would be a brilliant idea to allow my partner to push through a Day 1 wagon on one of them and then night-kill another (after not pushing Spartan through on Day 1 anyway). Doesn't seem very effective for me to be this damn picky as scum. I also have zero reason as scum to now be presenting Bella as the solve, considering she has no votes on her, and isn't really hard scum-read by anyone else still alive in the game (as far as I know, although it looks like since I started this post this morning, Rad has at the very least referenced his scum-read of Bella from Day 1). There's WIFOM and then there's just "fucking stupid." For me to be scum here, it would definitely fall under "fucking stupid."
P.S.S: As a reminder, a doctor claim by anyone at E-1 is now meaningless. If we're in A1, there will be a counter-claim. In order for the doctor to still have any more value than a vanilla townie (since the cop is already dead), they would have to make TWO saves on night kills to gain an extra mis-lim for town. That is extremely unlikely to happen at this point, and if this solve is correct, we might not even have two more night phases. If we're in C1, all scum would have to do at E-1 is claim doctor (in C1, the only town PR is a cop), and if they're believed, could coast to the end-game under a fake "clear". Only the death of a hypothetical mafia roleblocker at this point would prove that there's a doctor in the game. Otherwise, we're in C1 where it's just a cop. I don't want to open up a discussion on power roles further than that, but I advise you to keep this in mind.
Thank-you for coming to my TedTalk. I'm going to let the thread breathe for a while.