Large Normal 241: Random Pictures and Other Stuff | Day 8

[Ausuka]

Shrug, I'm not sure what else I can say on this topic. I'm also worried about being wrong, which is why I'm not trying to just chainlim you and Deas. I think your way of playing and trying to survive is something scum needs to do here and I think it looks scummy but it's not like town Shea can't also do that or that you can prove it wrong.

[Ausuka]

I don't feel like I've just been coasting but whatever

[Thestatusquo]

I dont think playing to survive accurately describes any of my play this whole game. I also think playing to survive would certainly not look like antagonizing you and GL by talking about how you could be scum. But also yes I don't really know what you want me to say.

[Ausuka]

I think today scum in you or DV needs to work to find a second person who they will be able to eliminate if they are going to win. I think it looks a lot more like you are doing this than DV is.

[Thestatusquo]

I see no reason why scum would be doing that today.

[Thestatusquo]

Much easier to play to survive the day, get the easy lim and then try to figure out the second lim tomorrow.

[Thestatusquo]

Much in the same way that deas was town reading me for lots of reasons but now they've been completely forgotten because he needs to get a lim on me for a case which I can only describe as "this progression is more likely to come from town, actually."

[GuiltyLion]

Also GL I’m not really sure what response you’re expecting from Shea, but I would be eager to discuss at whatever point you feel motivated to

alright so now that we got a response from Shea, my main source of doubt with the shifts on Obscure & Gamma that you pointed out was that I have noticed a pattern throughout the game of Shea voicing a lot of projected confidence in their reads that may not align with how confident those reads actually are. So when TSQ says something like this:

Honestly getting more pressure on obscure feeling like pulling teeth has me extremely convinced I'm right.

despite the word "extremely" being there, based on the summation of how they've talked about all their all of their reads this game (including ones on town as well), I am not sure if we should take Shea to

literally

mean "extremely". If Shea's expressed scumread on Obscure was more nebulous/unsure than they let on then the pattern you called out might be the behavior of town picking up a real signal but then getting distracted onto other suspects/targets.

I was waiting to see if Shea would say anything in this regard, that projected confidence in reads is not always actual confidence in reads, which they sort of indirectly did in point 1)? Like it's interesting Shea misunderstood you there, right? you were accusing them of specifically acting certain yet not behaving like they were certain, but Shea thought you were accusing them of simply

being

uncertain. I am not sure if Shea is intentionally manipulating/reframing the argument there, this is kind of an example of what I was talking about in 9034 about TSQ behaving "uninformed in a subtle way", like if scum!TSQ knows you are right here I feel like they'd address your point more directly.

let me know if that makes sense

[GuiltyLion]

So like, I think what you're picking up on is I have a lot of uncertainty here and I'm trying to think if there is any way I can not lose this game to scum!you or scum!gl in the event that DV is town. Because similarly to not seeing a world where DV lives tomorrow if I'm limmed today I don't see a world where I live tomorrow if DV is town and limmed today and I know that in that world town loses.

I can sympathize with your feeling here, but given your overall view of the gamestate, shouldn't the main concern be losing to scum!Titus? or are you assuming she still dies tonight?

[GuiltyLion]

my big worry is that Titus is SK and TSQ/DV is a T-T and we have nothing to really nail Titus on because SK is genuinely unaligned with group scum and there's an equally compelling mech/town explanation for her role. I don't know how I could resolve that worry/concern unless Titus starts doing a ton of solving here, but I also know it's a game and she's got RL to deal with

[Ausuka]

Much easier to play to survive the day, get the easy lim and then try to figure out the second lim tomorrow.

I don't really think this is a very viable tactic? Like unless DV does the work on making one of us miselimmable, okay sure he can play it like he's shocked by the flip or whatever but he still is going to face the issue that none of me Titus or GL are likely to vote each other unless he does something to change that

[Ausuka]

my big worry is that Titus is SK and TSQ/DV is a T-T and we have nothing to really nail Titus on because SK is genuinely unaligned with group scum and there's an equally compelling mech/town explanation for her role. I don't know how I could resolve that worry/concern unless Titus starts doing a ton of solving here, but I also know it's a game and she's got RL to deal with

I mean same

Honestly I just really wish SK was not a normal role

I don't really think it's worth limming titus on that possibility but it would be so lame

[Thestatusquo]

So like, I think what you're picking up on is I have a lot of uncertainty here and I'm trying to think if there is any way I can not lose this game to scum!you or scum!gl in the event that DV is town. Because similarly to not seeing a world where DV lives tomorrow if I'm limmed today I don't see a world where I live tomorrow if DV is town and limmed today and I know that in that world town loses.

I can sympathize with your feeling here, but given your overall view of the gamestate, shouldn't the main concern be losing to scum!Titus? or are you assuming she still dies tonight?

I feel like i have been extremely worried about Titus?

[GuiltyLion]

So like, I think what you're picking up on is I have a lot of uncertainty here and I'm trying to think if there is any way I can not lose this game to scum!you or scum!gl in the event that DV is town. Because similarly to not seeing a world where DV lives tomorrow if I'm limmed today I don't see a world where I live tomorrow if DV is town and limmed today and I know that in that world town loses.

I can sympathize with your feeling here, but given your overall view of the gamestate, shouldn't the main concern be losing to scum!Titus? or are you assuming she still dies tonight?

I feel like i have been extremely worried about Titus?

in general yeah, but in that post specifically you're also talking about scum!Ausuka and scum!GL scenarios, and while I get the "I don't want to be the f3 miselim and lose the game" feeling, you're gonna have to bank the game on at least one person being town, you can't cover every hypothetical scum. so I guess I just thought it was a lil weird you're talking in the general sense about what if other assumed-town players are scum but not more worried about Titus specifically

[Titus]

Scum must eliminate me either today or tomorrow unless they feel they are the towniest player bar none.

There's 5 alive. Suppose we miss.

Then it's 3 alive.

It's 2 town, 1 scum. Unless I am eliminated, scum cannot win. Even if they miseliminate the other town, I just shoot them. Everyone dies.

Scum cannot win with me alive.

[GuiltyLion]

@Titus I had thought about that earlier, but I checked the win con for town (quoted from the sample VT role pm)

You win if all threats to the town are dead

and at least one town-aligned player is alive.

in the 3p scenario, if we lim wrong, wouldn't you and scum cross-kill, resulting in a scum win?

[DeasVail]

In response to Shea commenting on me not posting in-depth town cases on GL and Ausuka:
- I was paying just as much attention to GL and Ausuka posts in the re-read as I was to Shea’s posts. The reason why I posted the most concerning things about Shea (to me) is because explaining why I think Shea might be scum is the priority over convincing Ausuka and GL that they are town.
There is less actual reason for me to post in-depth about my reasons for townreading Ausuka and GL. I’m at work currently and haven’t specifically checked if this was requested of me but can do it if needed?

Also GL I’m not really sure what response you’re expecting from Shea, but I would be eager to discuss at whatever point you feel motivated to

alright so now that we got a response from Shea, my main source of doubt with the shifts on Obscure & Gamma that you pointed out was that I have noticed a pattern throughout the game of Shea voicing a lot of projected confidence in their reads that may not align with how confident those reads actually are. So when TSQ says something like this:

Honestly getting more pressure on obscure feeling like pulling teeth has me extremely convinced I'm right.

despite the word "extremely" being there, based on the summation of how they've talked about all their all of their reads this game (including ones on town as well), I am not sure if we should take Shea to

literally

mean "extremely". If Shea's expressed scumread on Obscure was more nebulous/unsure than they let on then the pattern you called out might be the behavior of town picking up a real signal but then getting distracted onto other suspects/targets.

I was waiting to see if Shea would say anything in this regard, that projected confidence in reads is not always actual confidence in reads, which they sort of indirectly did in point 1)? Like it's interesting Shea misunderstood you there, right? you were accusing them of specifically acting certain yet not behaving like they were certain, but Shea thought you were accusing them of simply

being

uncertain. I am not sure if Shea is intentionally manipulating/reframing the argument there, this is kind of an example of what I was talking about in 9034 about TSQ behaving "uninformed in a subtle way", like if scum!TSQ knows you are right here I feel like they'd address your point more directly.

let me know if that makes sense

Thanks GL, and that makes sense. I agree that projected confidence can come from town, and uncertainty on reads is not unexpected. But it has caused me to wonder whether the projected confidence could in and of itself be a way of playing as scum. To appear confident and self-assured is something that in general is more likely to be read as town.
And as much as Shea may be claiming to be more confident in reads than they are, I expect town to still have reads, and I was concerned that Shea is more comfortable scumreading Obscure and Gamma when not many other people are and just happens to not want to eliminate obscure or gamma anymore once they are in more danger (and after HEM is caught out in a claim he can’t back up). Yes, it is possible that town just happens to have this read trajectory, but from Shea’s posting at the time, I don’t actually see any evidence of a thought process or new posting from obscure/gamma at the time that would be likely to assuage town-Shea’s concerns, based on what Shea’s concerns with the slots were.

Like I’ve said before, earlier in the game I strongly thought that Shea was town and I don’t think my reasoning was necessarily bad. If Shea is scum, then they were playing in a way that I thought was strongly indicative of town, but rereading has given me the opportunity to go over things again, and I’m less convinced by Shea’s reads and read progression being real, particularly with the scum flips.

Ausuka and GuiltyLion both have standout moments throughout the game that in my opinion make them much less likely to be scum. Off the top of my head, things like Ausuka’s interactions with VPB and their very public cooperation with HEM on pushing Datisi feel particularly unaligned. Ausuka also takes more ownership of the fire push than what Shea does and so by comparison Ausuka comes out looking better from that situation.
GL showed support for the HEM wagon early as it was just beginning and provided more content for it. When HEM claimed vig, GL went straight to obscure, which completely goes against what scum would be aiming for in that situation.

[Titus]

@Titus I had thought about that earlier, but I checked the win con for town (quoted from the sample VT role pm)

You win if all threats to the town are dead

and at least one town-aligned player is alive.

in the 3p scenario, if we lim wrong, wouldn't you and scum cross-kill, resulting in a scum win?

It's an everyone dies. No one wins...I think unsure

[Titus]

I didn't read and assumed

[Ausuka]

Hi sorry i wanted to do stuff but i got sick again >.>

i have limited brain capacity but will try and do something if ppl are here. is there anything specific in the game ppl think would be useful to reread

[Thestatusquo]

I always have limited brain capacity.

[Ausuka]

skill issue, i actually have infinite brain capacity almost all the time

[Thestatusquo]

Yes my brain is basically a small metal marble.

[Ausuka]

Post 783 ugh I’m going to fucking hate playing with you, aren’t I? I fucking hate this style of scum hunting. It’s DAY FUCKING ONE. Saying things are POE is fucking NONSENSE.

shut the fuck up

is it too shallow to read this as not partnered lole

it feels too absurd to be distancing almost

[Ausuka]

also in case it isn't obvious, i have continued to be sick

i am aware deadline is Soon so am forcing myself to do things