Mafiascum.net

No...it didn't have the words "Vanilla Townie" in them. It was easy to figure out I was VT though, because I didn't have any special powers and I checked it with the first page.

Okay.

Well, I agree that ToastyToast is the lynch for today.

Ok, this is an absolute useless post, but I swear Wraith can read my mind. 3 minutes ago, I was just going to ask for a votecount lol.

AurorusVox wrote:Feysal's bad logic + TT latching onto it makes me confident in TT's scumflip.

lowut? I wasn't denying the fact that there could be a roleblocker OR that I could be on a team with a roleblocker. I was pointing out that any other options is just asking for WIFOM.

Declaring that I could be on a scum team with a roleblocker who blocked a vig from killing me? I can just as easily say that vezok is secretly scum who was only half-confirmed town, and imaginality and jilynne wanted to ensure that either myself or inHim would be the lynch. You see my point?

There is absolutely nothing I can do at this point to prove that I am town. Its a shame, I really thought I had something on inHim.

No reason for vezok to claim.

Toasty: You claimed that EITHER you were a bulletproof godfather OR you were a townie who was going to be fortuitously mislynched due to a roleblocker framing you by sheer luck, and lynching you would result in a loss for the town.

That's just not true. You've tried to make it look like there's a greater chance that you'll flip town than there actually is. InHim being blocked by a RB'er in NO way clears you, which was what Feysal suggested and what you were quick to support.

Lack of quickhammering leads me to conclude

Hammer.

Even with inHim's claim, if ToastyToast turns out scum, I'll take this as a lesson to cut out the gut feelings, but I'm going to be onto inHim, if Toasty's not scum.

EBWOP...with all that said, if I had to choose 2 scum, I guess ToastyToast would be one of them. THIS IS SUCH A CONFUSING GAME. I'm thankful I know at least one person's confirmed though..

Jily; it's likely that there are three scum. 3-9 is standard fare in mafia, so who would your picks be?

Oh...oops, I'm in so many games where there's 2 mafia, that I'm sort of getting confused. Ugh, I have 3 people in my mind but they don't really go together. If TT is scum, I'd like to say Feysal is too, but if he isn't, I'm thinking inHimshallibe.

What do you make of the fact that there was two kills on N1, and no one has counterclaimed InHim's claim of Vigilante?
I think Feysal is looking likelier and likelier scum at this juncture.

While you're here...what do you think of Vezo's hammer?

I'm town...sorry guys

AV wrote:That's just not true. You've tried to make it look like there's a greater chance that you'll flip town than there actually is. InHim being blocked by a RB'er in NO way clears you, which was what Feysal suggested and what you were quick to support.

knowing the truth makes me a little biased.

What about a serial killer?

O.o thought that was the lynch
@Jil: there have only been a max of 2 kills, and we know one comes from inHim, who claimed vig
@AV:Lack of quickhammering in a game that has to go to night phase if town has a killing role isn't a stretch. Scum wouldn't want to risk being killed by vig/SK, regardless of claims.

Ok, if we're sure that inHim is town, then shall I hammer? I also think Feysal, and possibly Hoppster, not because I think hoppseter is scum, but because everyone esle looks more town.

I must say that, ToastyToast is speaking with such confidence that he's town when he though he was lynched, does that not unnerve you guys? Sure, he could be mafia really good at acting...but I don't think so.

ToastyToast wrote: I'm town...sorry guys

Fuck.

This reaction post is sooooo townie.
But there is no way you aren't scum, unless there is scum in imaginality and jyl.

Yup ,TT is scum.

ToastyToast wrote:O.o thought that was the lynch

Eh, my hand has been slowed by your response.
Nice gambit, Vezok. I saw what you were doing and tried to draw Jily's response to it heh.

Thing is if TT realised he wasn't getting hammered, he could play the "I'm town" card in an attempt to gain town cred from it...

for now while I mull things over.

ToastyToast wrote:@AV:Lack of quickhammering in a game that has to go to night phase if town has a killing role isn't a stretch. Scum wouldn't want to risk being killed by vig/SK, regardless of claims.

Erm. If you were NOT killed and are town, presumably its because of a Roleblocker on the scum side. Therefore, why would they fear quickhammering a townie if they have a RB'er? This lessens the townread coming out of the gambit somewhat. Considerations, considerations.



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jilynne1991 wrote:I must say that, ToastyToast is speaking with such confidence that he's town when he though he was lynched, does that not unnerve you guys? Sure, he could be mafia really good at acting...but I don't think so.

Thing is, Jily, if Toasty isn't scum, from my point of view you 100% have to be on the scumteam. Either it'd be a scumteam of Feysal-Hoppster-Jily; or it'd be Imaginality-Jily-{Feysal/Hoppster}.

Not to mention that Jily could be scum Toasty, and now I'm debating a vote in her direction.

The thing is TT didn't get quickhammered.

If the scum got RBer this would've been Game over.

On the TT wagon me and inhim are confirmed so there is still one scum out there who didn't try to hammer if TT is town. I see no reason for that to now happen.

The only way that scum might not have quick-hammered is if Hoppster-Feysal-AV is the scumteam and the former two are absent. But both have posted elsewhere on site since the L-1 vote (post 931). AV and vezok are right, if ToastyToast is town, scum have a roleblocker, so they have no reason not to quick-hammer Toasty.

So I think the lack of quickhammer is more compelling than ToastyToast's reaction to vezok's gambit.

And taking jilynne's non-genuine-sounding 944 into account, I think Toasty-jilynne-someone-else is a good call for the scum team.


Devil's advocate: It's worth considering the alternative to the ToastyToast lynch for a moment.

If ToastyToast isn't scum, then scum are among {AV,Hoppster,Feysal,jilynne,me} and I'm only scum if jlynne is scum. So we could lynch jilynne as AV mooted above.

The advantage would be this: if we're wrong, then there's a chance inHim gets a vig shot (if ToastyToast is godfather), whereas if we're wrong about ToastyToast being godfather, then we lose.

If jlynne did flip town, I'd be proven town. So AV would then probably get to vig one of {AV,Hoppster,Feysal} with 2/3 chance of hitting scum, if ToastyToast is godfather.

Let's say it's 50-50 between there being a roleblocker or a godfather. That means:

Lynch ToastyToast = X% chance of losing (if TT is town).
Lynch jilynne = Y% * (2/3) chance of losing (if jilynne is town and there's a roleblocker or inHim vigs wrongly).

So a lynch on jlynne wth 70% confidence she's scum would have the same chance of winning as a lynch on ToastyToast with 80% confidence he's scum.


However, right now, the lack of quick-hammer really does count against ToastyToast.