Newbie 1867 - Game Over

[vulcan logician]

@scion I'm kind of interested in Nacho's towncase for Rampage. But I suppose there are other things we can discuss.


Maybe you can help ease my paranoia concerning you and Nacho. You both seem pretty townish at a glance. So some interaction might help me feel better about one of you. Something you said kind of irked me. So I'd like you to clarify.

[Scioness Sajj]

what was it?

[vulcan logician]

i mean dead trcker nsg clears you but i think you would be holding hammer anyways tomorrow so

This doesn't make sense. I'm the obvious NK tonight in any D3 mislynch scenario. I wonder what your motivations for posting this are.

[Scioness Sajj]

i meant that if you are to be alive tomorrow you are the most townread player, as good as comftown imo because i don't think as scum pr would offer a lynch on themselves the way you did ever.

so if as long as you are alive you will be holding the hammer. and you are not dead in a scenario when town tracker nsg towns it up enough to get nk'd.

[Scioness Sajj]

and i believe town!nsg can town it up to the level it becomes disgusting. i saw it happen :')

[vulcan logician]

What's your read on Nacho?

p-edit: I'm certain she's the lynch today. After Nacho's towncase of Rampage & nsg comes in to say her piece, my vote will go to her if someone else doesn't hammer first.

[Scioness Sajj]

i guess that's the difference, i'm never certain and like to run through all possibilities.

well, i'm townreading both Nacho and Rampage. i was townreading Rampage a little stronger but after [post]915[/ppost] Nacho is higher. i think nacho's scumread of ofrhz's slot has been too consistent - it was going on for too long for just distancing and there wasn't really a reason for him to bus.

[Scioness Sajj]

oops 915

[vulcan logician]

I get paranoid of obv-town players if they are experienced, so I'm trying my best to look at Nacho as objectively as possible. I've let paranoia cloud my judgement before and I'd rather not repeat that mistake in this game.

I'm going to ISO the three of you and give reads/brackets. Probably the last thing I will do for town, y'know.

[Scioness Sajj]

Yeah I'm a little paranoid of nacho too, should reread the game

I feel like you all should closely look at my slot.

I'm the least townread beside nsg so if nsg is town there is a problem

[TheRampage]

So for me, if NSG flips town, that confirms VT is town. Which also means that it will come down to Nacho, Scioness, and myself.

This is tough for me cause I can lean 2 ways. Scioness was quick to back off of me once we had a guilty on Teacher. You also reluctantly hammered the Ircher lynch. Nacho on the other hand was on NSG from day one the same as I had a read on Teacher day one. Now, I feel if Nacho were scum, he would have hammered Ircher before you. Then again, you waited a while to do it as well Scioness. So this is a tough coin flip for me. I could go either way cause I am reading you both as town. My gut is on NSG, she was hard up on sticking to voting me; but if is town. I may vote for Nacho. Cause scum would vote early on their team mate to appear town. Still, I feel strongly that NSG is the scum.

[TheRampage]

I also feel like if NSG flips town, it looks really bad that Nacho was the one who really pushed for the fake claim idea and started the voting on the claimed tracker.

[northsidegal]

hmm, that is interesting to me then. I may be leaning towards the fake claim idea now. I mean, scum try to lay low anyways. So her not posting Day 2 at all, even though we dragged it out to try and get reads for a few. Seems like it is possible that she wasn't willing to ship her scum mate down the river, even though that would have been the best move. I also definitely lean towards Nacho being town because he was on Teacher before Darynth even voted him. So, I am comfortable voting for NSG, and if we are wrong, then I guess I have a choice to make on Day 4.

VOTE: NSG[/vote}

there would be no reason for me not to vote teacher yesterday if we were scum together given that he was guiltied - there really wouldn't be any chance of saving him, so the obvious choice of action would just be to vote him. i'm not sure why you would take that as a point against me.

[northsidegal]

So I checked out nsg's ISO, and I feel pretty confident in reasserting that Rampage would have been the optimal tracker target there. With teacher outed, that left her and Rampage as prime lynch candidates the next day cycle. Knowing that she was being suspected, she ought to have foreseen having to hardclaim on D3. In that case, her claim would have town-cleared a scum lean which would have done the most service for town.

@nsg: thanks for that link explaining cop strategy. If I ever roll cop, I'll keep those guidelines in mind. But in this particular gamestate, it was unwise of you to follow the sort of "general advice" provided in the wiki article. One scum had already been lynched. You had to have foreseen that you'd be claiming today. In these circumstances clearing rampage would have done town a world of good. Even if your tracker claim was disbelieved and town lynched you, you would have flipped tracker and confirmed Rampage as green. Not to mention the fact that you might have caught him in the act of night killing.

The wiki article advises not investigating the next day's probable lynch

under normal circumstances

(ie. when your not going to be claiming the next day). In this gamestate, I fail to see how your choice of tracker targets was a good one.

okay?

i guess our disagreement here will be interesting post-game conversation but i'm not exactly sure as to the relevance of it right now.

[vulcan logician]

So for me, if NSG flips town, that confirms VT is town. Which also means that it will come down to Nacho, Scioness, and myself.

NSG doesn't need to be lynched for me to be conf town. I'm confirmed town right now. Given nsg's claim and tracker report, can you think of a plausible scenario where I am scum? I wonder if you aren't saying this to distance yourself from my imminent NK.

@nsg: would you please give us some reads? A part of me thinks you may be town and that your tracker claim is legit. If that's the case, your opinion could really help town out in lylo.

p-edit: I'd love to discuss cop strategy w/ you post game. It's relevant because I'm examining the plausibility of your tracker claim, looking for holes in your story as it were... nothing more, nothing less.

[northsidegal]

i'm getting sort of impatient and since we are waiting for nsg if anybody wants to talk out reads and stuff in case nsg is a tracker and we are going into d4 im here

i don't like how you have me as the "default" lynch here.

why do you think i'm scum in the first place? i think most of my low-key play this game is attributable to me being a PR - see open 714 for a similar game here.

i also think lynching me today is suboptimal just from a setup standpoint given that it means we always go into lylo without any conftown whereas even if you think i'm scum me being alive yesterday means it will be a guaranteed 50/50

[northsidegal]

@nsg: would you please give us some reads? A part of me thinks you may be town and that your tracker claim is legit. If that's the case, your opinion could really help town out in lylo.

i mean, i think i've made this clear enough, but in case i haven't - scioness is playing really heavily to her town game and you're confirmed town, so for me it's between rampage and nacho.

for rampage i've been scumreading him since day one, and for nacho i really don't know how i would begin to evaluate his scumgame vs his towngame - i was planning on basically dealing with him the same was as RC or mathdino or something, basically expecting him to be nightkilled if he's town.

p-edit: I'd love to discuss cop strategy w/ you post game. It's relevant because I'm examining the plausibility of your tracker claim, looking for holes in your story as it were... nothing more, nothing less.

meh, i think i deserve enough credit where if i were scum i could just make the clear that puts the last suspicion on me - obviously i'm biased saying this, but i think the "gut paranoia"-style checks are just really often likely to be genuine.

[northsidegal]

can we not rush through this?

[vulcan logician]

Reading Nacho's ISO did little to quell my paranoia. He did put teacher out there as a good lynch, but really didn't harp on it as much as I'd like, but he was on ofrhz's case. All things considered, he is a null read. His posts are townie as fuck, but nothing skilled scum couldn't pull off.

I think the best course of action for town is to proceed carefully and not rush through this day cycle as nsg recommends. I have yet to ISO scion or Rampage. Those will be coming shortly.

[TheRampage]

Here is our dilemma, no matter who gets lynched, we go into tomorrow with no confirmed town. There is no one to dispute your claim as tracker. You could be scum faking. I personally think that Nacho pointing that out and pushing for your lunch is risky if he is scum. I think if Scioness is scum, he wouldn't hammered by now. But he didn't even give an intent to. If you are tracker or scum, you just confirmed VT; and I know that I am town. I have to agree with Nacho that at some point you should have tracked me. You didn't though. I think you didn't want to confirm me as town because I am too good of a distraction and easy lynch.

[northsidegal]

Here is our dilemma, no matter who gets lynched, we go into tomorrow with no confirmed town. There is no one to dispute your claim as tracker. You could be scum faking. I personally think that Nacho pointing that out and pushing for your lunch is risky if he is scum. I think if Scioness is scum, he wouldn't hammered by now. But he didn't even give an intent to. If you are tracker or scum, you just confirmed VT; and I know that I am town. I have to agree with Nacho that at some point you should have tracked me. You didn't though. I think you didn't want to confirm me as town because I am too good of a distraction and easy lynch.

not true - assuming that i can obvtown enough and scum chooses to kill me, VL will still be alive tomorrow.

assuming that people still think i'm scum (i.e. i'm still a mislynch option) and scum make the optimal move and shoot VL,

i'll still get an investigation result

- either a guilty or an innocent. either scenario results in someone who's conftown.

[northsidegal]

assume i'm scum. i know that coming into today a lot of people are suspecting me.

doesn't it make more sense to fake an innocent on you, rampage, and try to start out with a paranoia lynch on nacho?

not

saying i investigated you just doesn't make sense from a survivalistic point of view. (whereas it makes sense given my genuine feelings on VL)

-shrug-

i guess i'm obviously biased in saying this, but it makes a lot of sense to me.

[TheRampage]

Okay, so let's say we lunch me instead of you. Yes, if you are fake scum you still have to clear some one by either saying I got nothing on Scioness or Nacho. Then you cross with the guilty party and let the one you cleared make the decision. Now, if you are town, scum will likely let you live cause there is already doubt on your claim and they will argue that to the person you clear tomorrow. No matter what, I see scum killing VT tonight because it is too easy to make you look like scum as compared to VT.

Pedit* I think the consensus is that as I was the biggest distraction to the town, that a tracker would have wanted to confirm my alignment of they were town because I would have been the easy mislynch. Then you could have sat back and waited to see who took the easy road and tried to get me lynched. Then once I was at L-1, you could have confirmed my alignment and we could have gone from there.

[northsidegal]

Okay, so let's say we lunch me instead of you. Yes, if you are fake scum you still have to clear some one by either saying I got nothing on Scioness or Nacho. Then you cross with the guilty party and let the one you cleared make the decision. Now, if you are town, scum will likely let you live cause there is already doubt on your claim and they will argue that to the person you clear tomorrow. No matter what, I see scum killing VT tonight because it is too easy to make you look like scum as compared to VT.

assuming the game doesn't end with the last scum's lynch today, this is basically how i see things working out (unless i can make myself towny enough, which i get the feeling won't happen given that scioness is the only one who's played with me before)

Pedit* I think the consensus is that as I was the biggest distraction to the town, that a tracker would have wanted to confirm my alignment of they were town because I would have been the easy mislynch. Then you could have sat back and waited to see who took the easy road and tried to get me lynched. Then once I was at L-1, you could have confirmed my alignment and we could have gone from there.

again, this conversation about what i

should

have done seems more relevant for post-game than right now.

[northsidegal]

i also think that i probably would have been the one getting run up before you in the first place?