In post 393, redtea wrote:true. Does that point two 2 mafia prs then not counting the traitor, assuming the mod didn't have some odd idea then? And assuming I'm town ofc.
The fact you're gated and the traitor is immune is what makes me think the scum team has one PR & one goon, if your claim is real.
Quasi-investigatives typically have false positives/negatives.
ah yeah, that reminds me, the traitor is NK immune + gated (no specifics given beyond that). forgot to say that as i didn't really think it mattered, but perhaps it would be helpful when the traitor was trying to fashion a fakeclaim to also gate themselves.
Gated as in... the bulletproof is complex or..?
no idea, I can only refer to my informed info 'gated', and beyond that, it's speculation.
In post 348, redtea wrote:Okay caught up didn't realize people did say I should claim
I'm a town complex vigilante. Explains the bulletproof mafia, but that's also why my claim might not be that helpful as the counterpart has already been revealed.
This claim seems too complicated to come from scum?
see above. also, is redtea the kind of player who just rolls over and dies as scum? i suppose my starting point would be, it's exactly the sort of claim which might get them out of trouble, which makes me instinctively struggle to believe it.
I'm not, but I also don't think I'm seasoned enough to think of a fakeclaim like that without help from a partner.
Maybe, although House is arguing you are a much more capable scum-player, who would have come up with an even better fakeclaim than that. On balance, my view is it's possible you could make it up.
In post 534, redtea wrote:I remember part of it was me saying to cookie "wtf, 'i should be limmed if im basically vanilla', i said it before i still have value as town", and that if not for cookie's claim + info I wouldve voted fae for faes post about me
can you explain what this means? why would you vote for me?
In post 536, redtea wrote:Wait, how would I know who to go for in that situation?
Personally, I'd say use your best judgement and pray you hit red, because a green flip will require a solid explanation.
I'm sure others will likely disagree with me and want you leashed, but I don't because:
1) I hate being told what to do with my role, so I geddit
2) Probably not the best idea to let unsuspected scum influence your shot, or let them know who to avoid targeting if the target is town
not my area of expertise at all, but a few quick thoughts:
1. if we're leaving redtea alive today, on the assumption redtea can prove their role with a 2nd nightkill, surely we have to pre-determine the nightkill otherwise redtea can always claim to have shot the single NK target/been blocking by something (if lying)?
2. determining the nightkill choice beforehand will also give us information, with the added quirk of mafia not knowing if redtea is actually a vig or not.
3. i think leaving redtea alive today is slightly more palatable if we can use the potential vig shot as a second day-elim, and have the 2 benefits above (self-confirming + info), rather than a blind shot in the dark.
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:07 am
by cool cookie
done for tonight i think, i'll go from post 548 tomorrow
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:34 am
by Almost50
In post 923, Dwlee99 wrote:Time zones and what not but it was 5pm my time when he replaced in so
Dwlee, you sometimes amaze me for how you miss glaring facts in general. First off; you should know I don't strictly adhere to a specific time schedule. I could pop-up literally anytime, yet can go missing for 36 hours. I don't necessarily sleep at night and post by day (or vice versa). You've seen this happen over and over again both as a player and as a mod, so I an puzzled as to how you could miss that.
Second; and this is a cheat on my part because I read the following post of your already: I already told you I didn't need to confirm. I wasn't asked to. Mod here follows my style. If you are an active player and you request to replace in chances are you will jump right in as soon as you receive your Role PM.
Third, and -again- I don't know how you missed that: I do NOT hide my online status, so if I'm online my name should appear on the site's frontpage. If it's not there then I'm not on.
Fourth, you could've checked my activity in "user's posts" to verify if I was at all posting anywhere.
Fifth, I can't talk about it, but it's even easier for you than checking the user's posts search.
This is what makes me almost always not willing to trust you, because I can't tell if you're genuinely missing the obvious or just faking it. This is exactly why you're still in my Nulls when I have formed reads about almost everybody else.
I wasn't elitelling you, I never checked if you were posting elsewhere because that wasn't relevant. I thought that you had requested to replace in, mod announced it shortly after (cause there was about a 45 minute interval), and I figured you would be around but weren't. I'm not stalking you to know when I think you should post or even thinking about it beyond expecting that when someone replaces in they'd be around. You're telling me I'm missing the obvious when I feel like you're not reading what I'm writing here. I'm pretty sure you've seen this exact same conversation play out with me and every time it's pointless. I voted you cause I wanted you to post. You posted and I liked what you did, so now I'm not. It's that simple. I don't play super subtle most of the time. You can pretty much just take me to mean what I mean unless there is some special circumstance, and voting someone to get them to post is not one of those circumstances.
In post 536, redtea wrote:Wait, how would I know who to go for in that situation?
Personally, I'd say use your best judgement and pray you hit red, because a green flip will require a solid explanation.
I'm sure others will likely disagree with me and want you leashed, but I don't because:
1) I hate being told what to do with my role, so I geddit
2) Probably not the best idea to let unsuspected scum influence your shot, or let them know who to avoid targeting if the target is town
then whats the part about how if there arent 2 kills after a scum lim, that will out me as fakeclaiming?
The following Day, there should be 2 flips. One from scum and one from you.
If you're targeting the same player as scum, your reads are shite at best and you need to die.
If scum doesn't know who YOU are targeting, odds are low that they'll hit the same player.
Like, technically they can no-kill, but it's suboptimal play to leave threats against them alive.
or a kill gets blocked. in a world where redtea is a vig, there's a bulletproof traitor out there somewhere, and perhaps town has protective/blocking roles too. plenty of potential excuses for a 1-kill night, made worse if you don't leash.
more generally, you dont elim a vig because they make (subjectively) crappy kill choices. you elim them if you don't believe they are a vig.
In post 536, redtea wrote:Wait, how would I know who to go for in that situation?
Personally, I'd say use your best judgement and pray you hit red, because a green flip will require a solid explanation.
I'm sure others will likely disagree with me and want you leashed, but I don't because:
1) I hate being told what to do with my role, so I geddit
2) Probably not the best idea to let unsuspected scum influence your shot, or let them know who to avoid targeting if the target is town
then whats the part about how if there arent 2 kills after a scum lim, that will out me as fakeclaiming?
The following Day, there should be 2 flips. One from scum and one from you.
If you're targeting the same player as scum, your reads are shite at best and you need to die.
If scum doesn't know who YOU are targeting, odds are low that they'll hit the same player.
Like, technically they can no-kill, but it's suboptimal play to leave threats against them alive.
or a kill gets blocked. in a world where redtea is a vig, there's a bulletproof traitor out there somewhere, and perhaps town has protective/blocking roles too. plenty of potential excuses for a 1-kill night, made worse if you don't leash.
more generally, you dont elim a vig because they make (subjectively) crappy kill choices. you elim them if you don't believe they are a vig.
Ketchup
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 10:24 am
by cool cookie
In post 569, redtea wrote:this like isnt even that relevant but i dont want to end up in a weird situation later
does nobody else (especially those in the "redtea isn't acting like they are scum hoping to survive a meaningful length of time" camp) see this and preceding redtea posts as scum trying to orchestrate a scenario where they can potentially make it to endgame? not unreasonable to do, but flies in the face of the argument redtea is just hoping to survive 1 more day with this claim. i could be wrong though!
lim redtea today. If what cookie is saying is true, which it likely is then there is probably some kind of vig. If redtea is scum then redtea gets shot. Yay town. If redtea doesn't get shot then we might have a problem, in which case we could lim redtea.
Either way, we gain nothing from limming redtea today. However, statistically we have a chance to get a free redtea scumflip if we leave them alive for tonight.
does bulletproof traitor imply a vig? mechanically it doesn't (basing it on the wiki), but is that statistically true for normal games?
and of course, you can't kill a bulletproof player at night. And given the case on redtea was entirely based on them being bulletproof scum (i.e. not normal scum), them being killed at night by 'the real vig' seems like a longshot. So leaving redtea alive today is a bit pointless if the plan is to elim redtea tomorrow anyway regardless. whatever we are doing, the waters seem quite muddy at the moment, and pinning people down to credible and sustainable positions would probably be helpful - otherwise the same debate will happen every day.
i'm out of steam again, ttfn!
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 10:49 am
by cool cookie
i got excited as i saw a post about me!
In post 602, House wrote:So... rereading cookie, and I have concerns.
In post 261, cool cookie wrote:I'm going to claim. I'm an Informed Townie. I know there is a Bulletproof Mafia Traitor in the game. I think the quotes below are Redtea signalling to the rest of the mafia that they are said traitor, partly given it was a really weird out-on-a-limb connection to make in the context of the discussion to that point, and partly because there are very few reasons to make such an effort to hint that you are mafia-aligned, other than being the mafia traitor.
In post 43, redtea wrote:(Translator's Note: gay means mafia-aligned)
I could be wrong, but there's nothing really lost by me claiming anyway as that's my only power.
1) Why would the mod give info not only about the existence of a traitor, but the fact they're bulletproof? What town utility comes from outing the fact the traitor is bulletproof?
cookie could have left the bulletproof bit out of his claim and let mafia sweat hitting their traitor at night, or think they're traitor was being protected if they did shoot them.
Mentioning the bulletproof bit could have easily been a message from traitor!cookie to his team.
i'm an informed townie, so i guess the whole point of my role is to reveal my information at some point. i revealed it when it seemed relevant. the bulletproof bit is important because, for example, if we had a vig, the vig wouldn't be able to kill them. I.e., we need to deal with them during the day.
The alternative would be I didn't claim that bit, perhaps the bulletproof traitor says "why not let the vig hit me at night" and it becomes a bit messy and a waste of time. So, I'm not convinced revealing the whole thing was anti-town.
That said, of course there's a world where I'm a bulletproof traitor and my claim was simply a ruse to reveal myself. Although if that was the case, it would be a pretty rubbish plan, because at best, scum might think it's between myself and redtea with redtea being far more likely. also it would needlessly reveal to town the existence of a traitor, which isn't in the mafia's interests, since they already have that information. So it's possible, but pretty unlikely.
In post 305, cool cookie wrote:i got some reads but will see if i am alive tomorrow to share them
Why would town hold off on posting reads after leading a wagon on what they felt was a solid chance at flipping red, knowing that it's probably their only chance to do so if scum flips?
I don't think cookie was worried about dying at all overnight.
VOTE: cool cookie
I figured I was more likely to die after posting my reads (if i was correct), and at that point I expected we were about to end the day so they wouldn't have had any bearing. I wouldn't say I was super worried about dying overnight, given I'm a spent role, but also due to my profile/townreadness at that stage, would be a half-decent doc-protect candidate. But I thought I could keep my cards close to my chest to avoid needlessly drawing a kill as I like playing!
Also - as I don't think anyone else has noted this - I could potentially just be mafia who wants to buy towncred by throwing my own traitor under the bus. Again it's a fairly kamikaze strategy, and not one which I expect would be very effective (towncred is always pretty fleeting), but its a possibility - hence I don't think redtea flipping red means I'm locktown, so scum don't HAVE to kill me for that reason.
In post 602, House wrote:So... rereading cookie, and I have concerns.
In post 261, cool cookie wrote:I'm going to claim. I'm an Informed Townie. I know there is a Bulletproof Mafia Traitor in the game. I think the quotes below are Redtea signalling to the rest of the mafia that they are said traitor, partly given it was a really weird out-on-a-limb connection to make in the context of the discussion to that point, and partly because there are very few reasons to make such an effort to hint that you are mafia-aligned, other than being the mafia traitor.
In post 43, redtea wrote:(Translator's Note: gay means mafia-aligned)
I could be wrong, but there's nothing really lost by me claiming anyway as that's my only power.
1) Why would the mod give info not only about the existence of a traitor, but the fact they're bulletproof? What town utility comes from outing the fact the traitor is bulletproof?
cookie could have left the bulletproof bit out of his claim and let mafia sweat hitting their traitor at night, or think they're traitor was being protected if they did shoot them.
Mentioning the bulletproof bit could have easily been a message from traitor!cookie to his team.
In post 305, cool cookie wrote:i got some reads but will see if i am alive tomorrow to share them
Why would town hold off on posting reads after leading a wagon on what they felt was a solid chance at flipping red, knowing that it's probably their only chance to do so if scum flips?
I don't think cookie was worried about dying at all overnight.
VOTE: cool cookie
So you think Cookie is a bulletproof traitor trying to signal to his team, and that redtea is one of the other two scum fakeclaiming to get the heat off of him since such a thing would align with his own role? I can’t imagine one being scum and not the other.
erm...so you're suggesting I'm a mafia traitor who tried to signal to my mafia team by claiming one of my team is actually the traitor and trying to get them elimmed? I'm sure I'd be really popular in the scum PT in that world! And the irony is, as well as me torpedoing my own team by getting my teammate elimmed and giving town setup info, it also wouldn't actually achieve the purpose of getting my mafia team to believe I'm the traitor, because you'd have to be a complete fool as traitor to deliberately throw your own teammate under with a credible claim.
I'd probably argue the scenario above would be game-throwing, or at the very least, really uncool.
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 11:20 am
by cool cookie
a couple other quick thoughts on treachery before i finish catch up, given i have a couple votes on me:
1. I claimed pro-actively, under no pressure on Day 1, information which is confirmable, and in all probability refutable at some stage. I think in any circumstances, it's unlikely I'm a good Day 1 elim here. At some stage we will flip the mafia traitor, which doesn't prove my alignment or role, but does eliminate that paranoid world of cookie-traitor.
2. if I was actually the traitor, why would I be pushing so hard to elim redtea when redtea being elimmed blows my own cover? maybe the fact i make that argument myself, weakens it - but the history books will show i was very relaxed about redtea being elimmed. Cookie-traitor would have relatively little value to team-scum in that scenario, where cookie-traitor is discredited and/or eliminated for being wrong.
objectively, i think it's very reasonable to consider me as traitor a possibility, but unreasonable to consider it high probability.
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 12:03 pm
by redtea
I'm going to be busy today but I'll be around either late tonight or tomorrow
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 12:52 pm
by Save The Dragons
VOTE: GeorgeBailey
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:11 pm
by T3
In post 923, Dwlee99 wrote:Time zones and what not but it was 5pm my time when he replaced in so
a50 lives in eggypt
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:13 pm
by T3
In post 923, Dwlee99 wrote:Time zones and what not but it was 5pm my time when he replaced in so
also let's not lim bogdan
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:27 pm
by Three
I'm struggling to believe Dwlee's scum read on me is real at this point. They think it's scummy that I town read them despite getting scum read by them, but if OMGUS scum read them back I'm certain that I wouldn't get town read for that. I don't get why you're so set on miseliminating me since it seems like you are going to scum read me no matter what I say or do.
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:52 pm
by Dwlee99
In post 945, Three wrote:I'm struggling to believe Dwlee's scum read on me is real at this point. They think it's scummy that I town read them despite getting scum read by them, but if OMGUS scum read them back I'm certain that I wouldn't get town read for that. I don't get why you're so set on miseliminating me since it seems like you are going to scum read me no matter what I say or do.
This is not an accurate portrayal of why I'm scumreading you at all
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:17 pm
by Three
In post 807, Dwlee99 wrote:Beginning of ISO: doesn't say much. Doesn't interact much. First time involved in actual conversation happens to be when the mech convo with the traitor stuff comes up. Since then, not much to impress me except maybe the truce thing from y'all but I feel like I shouldn't put a ton of stock into it. The townread on me kinda feels like he knows it's true which is why he believes it cause Occam's is just scummy -> scum and I don't think he has played with me to know my playstyle just kinda is this. I think people new to my playstyle tend to scumread me naturally so it's kind of weird for him to actually townread me for thinking I look scummy
Pretty sure this is Dwlee99 who posted this.
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:21 pm
by Three
I'd prefer if you just admitted you're death tunneling me, because because despite every single one of your concerns being addressed, you still scum read me.
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:44 pm
by Three
Alternatively, we could play Mafia and have a discussion instead.