Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[geometry]

right.

Town rose isn't that powerful anyway, it's moreso that town is forced to pick rose

[Alisae]

maf already have incentive to pick rose tbh, rose isn't bad for them
tho I would like to see rose being upgraded to a 1-shot bp that isn't locked to a specific day for maf

[Something_Smart]

Good game, guys.

Sorry for making that take so long. I won't lie, I was absolutely afraid of feeling like shit for losing to an LLD/hito team that forced through such a blatant scum agenda, even though I knew it was objectively less likely.

I hit on 918 though which I'm hoping will help me read older players in the future; that's always been a weak spot of mine. I'm sorry for all the grief I gave you, hito; you played very strongly aside from the Pine hammer and I basically looked past it because I thought you might be able to fake that as scum.

And damn. Once we got the replacements sorted out, this game had a fantastic playerlist across the board. It was fun playing with all of you

[Something_Smart]

FakeGod's moderation was excellent as usual, and the setup is very interesting.

I thought it would be scumsided, but even with the terrible gun/rose split, and mislynching the named townie, and the newbies making a bunch of nonsensical picks, we still ended up having a reasonable chance.

[popsofctown]

maf already have incentive to pick rose tbh, rose isn't bad for them
tho I would like to see rose being upgraded to a 1-shot bp that isn't locked to a specific day for maf

I'm not sure whether this makes it optimal to hypoclaim your night # if rose so that failed shots on scum can be treated as investigates. Particularly when you get about 5 roses 4 guns.


I'm really excited about any setup that emphasize dayplay as heavily as this one, but I don't usually care for pregame decisionmaking. This setup seems "balanced enough". Maybe you can cut just one townie because the probability the guns and roses switches the odd/even state seems pretty real as it is.

[Ankamius]

thank you for listening, SS :V

[hitogoroshi]

that's the problem though

I have major confidence problems in lylo, I actually had you locktowned after the LLD flip and I started doubting it after seeing both implo and SS pushing for you immediately

That's pretty normal for LYLO. You played it fine. It's the job of the townie here to constantly rehash their reasons, because I necessarily had a more authentic flow than implosion. You could have engaged a bit more with my stuff in the middle of D4 - I think forcing s_s to engage with my points via the medium of you doing it would have ended this a little sooner - but I'm not going to get mad that you took time to reevaluate your lock-stances in LYLO. LYLO stressful as hell and I usually just try to get murdered to avoid it.

ok did I verbally abuse you enough for not cohering with me on cyanjet-read for you to TR me

It's a lot less of a tell if votes aren't involved, imo. A better analogue would be if I voted Cyan, TR'd you, but never tried to sell you on Cyan-scum or argue with your clear of him.

My TR on you was just because I had your spewing as null and then later decided it would have just been too much hustle for scum. Effort tell is a classic for a reason (I mean hey, sure clutched the shit outta this one huh)

Well, one thing I learned from this game is never invite your RL friends to play mafia here. They grew confused and frightened by y'all, and decided to mass-exodus. I am very thankful for those who replaced in (especially to those that had very silly picks like N5 rose).

I ran this exact setup couple times off-site and they both finished in resounding town victories. The game was lot closer here. I think this setup is townsided (with 2v9), but Pine misplayed rather horrendously with his claim in day 2 to even the odds somewhat. I would appreciate it if you guys commented on the balance of the setup, given 2:9, as well for a larger setup.

Thank you all for playing.

Sorry, my mission kind of contradicted it - I like playing with old players so whenever I /in for games, I try to do it as the very first one so people from the old days see it and try to snowball the player list by following me in. So I made it kind of the worst game possible to bring new players in to. (But yes, also you should put your IRL friends in a non-Newbie game as their first. Always disaster and tears.)

I do think the setup is pretty townsided, especially if people do like...60/30/10 rose rolling, or something like that. If people clump heavily on the early days, scum can "figure it out" and draft later guns but what the fuck does that do for 'em? If you have a N3+ gun, you need to live to N3 with that shit, which is a lot harder than it sounds when townies got guns. Blocking kills is just a lot of utility. If the Rose blocked only Gun kills and not factional kills it probably swings things too far the other way, but might be interesting to start from there and figure out what happens to the setup / what you could tinker with off that starting base.

[Ankamius]

But like, I guess it's not really disputable that you did most of your playing at a time when the site meta was different, and given that everyone else alive has at least four years on me, I'm sure Ank and implosion can confirm this for me.

btw I can confirm this

I've mostly adapted to how the game is played now though

[chennisden]

maf already have incentive to pick rose tbh, rose isn't bad for them
tho I would like to see rose being upgraded to a 1-shot bp that isn't locked to a specific day for maf

I'm not sure whether this makes it optimal to hypoclaim your night # if rose so that failed shots on scum can be treated as investigates. Particularly when you get about 5 roses 4 guns.


I'm really excited about any setup that emphasize dayplay as heavily as this one, but I don't usually care for pregame decisionmaking. This setup seems "balanced enough". Maybe you can cut just one townie because the probability the guns and roses switches the odd/even state seems pretty real as it is.

Meh, Day 1 is usually miserable anyway and making it even is even worse.

Also town could already do that. This forces them to waste another lynch/shot on Mafia

[Alisae]

Sorry, my mission kind of contradicted it - I like playing with old players so whenever I /in for games, I try to do it as the very first one so people from the old days see it and try to snowball the player list by following me in. So I made it kind of the worst game possible to bring new players in to. (But yes, also you should put your IRL friends in a non-Newbie game as their first. Always disaster and tears.)

I in'd because you were playing and I had fun playing with u

[chennisden]

Ok

I think if all town guns OR all town roses die

town should lose

[hitogoroshi]

(But yes, also you should put your IRL friends in a non-Newbie game as their first. Always disaster and tears.)

err, you should *not LMAO

thanks Alisae

S_S I can understand the sentiment because I used to be there, but it really is worth focusing on odds and not the fear you'd have being wrong in certain ways. I mentioned this already in thread, but notice that Blake really

was

wrong in her entrance, but because she came in hard enough that I felt comfortable dismissing her pairing with Kagami, it still started the chain reaction that won us the game. It can be scary to fully commit, be wrong, and lose; but being the kind of person who full commits (while still being willing to reverse on a dime when the situation changes) has a lot of positive utility in terms of controlling the game, getting reads, catching scum out of nowhere, etc.

[popsofctown]

The problem for deciding whether to pick gun or rose is analogous to "El Farol Bar problem": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Farol_Bar_problem. I've seen the problem posed a different way where twenty people simultaneously submit a card that says "no" or "yes" and they all win a billion dollars if exactly 1 player submits a yes.
El Farol Bar problem isn't broken or anything but it's kinda boring and the higher your awareness that you should probably be submitting a probability-based mixed strategy instead of incorporating player preferences the less meaningful the mechanic will add fun to the game the way a "U-pick" does.
In this particular run of the game my mixed strategy solution was like 99% rose 1% gun because the probability that FakeGod's RL friends picked gun seemed 50% each to me. So I didn't even bother rolling for a chance of holding a gun. But I would expect this to happen eventually after enough runs of the game.

[popsofctown]

Like hito says I think you are aiming for a 2:1 ratio of roses to guns, but having missing roses seems far more tragic than having missing guns so the solution is probably somewhere around 75% gun.

[Alisae]

Ok

I think if all town guns OR all town roses die

town should lose

if town went all roses there would be 0 town roses and that would be a loss for town

[implosion]

GG.

The setup on average is probably a bit townsided. The setup as it was instantiated here was probably pretty even. Having a more even gun/rose split is probably better for town. I think it'd be better at a higher player count as it was originally conceived; at this player count it's okay but idk, I feel like the concept would shine more at around 17ish?

I really really disagree that scum has any real incentive to pick rose in this version. If I was town I was planning to pick n2 or n3 rose (undecidedly); as scum it was really, really obvious to pick guns. S_S was wondering why scum didn't take two n1 guns; we more or less made our choices separately. LLD opted for n1 gun (i assume she needed to be able to claim it if the split hadn't been so one-sided) and I opted for n2 rather than n1 with the logic that (1) there could theoretically be a high preponderance of n1 roses, (2) if there are relatively few roses then having kills on later nights is potentially more valuable because we would have more information about what players are holding the roses. At least I think that's what my reasoning would be.

[Something_Smart]

It's not exactly like that pops, because some people will do better with one or the other, bit it has the same idea.

For instance, I would never take a gun. Ever. You and I talked about this during the game and I actually clammed up because you asked me "true or false vig is the best role" which was just a straight up rolefish

[popsofctown]

Yeah scum definitely autopick gun but that is fine

[popsofctown]

I think if you joined a guns and roses setup full of experienced players and never picked gun ever it'd just be incorrect. You could tweak your dice roll some but you should help the town out in trying to reach the ideal number of vig shots. You can shoot a walking mislynch or even shoot randomly

[Kagami]

I had night1 rose and it deflected a nightkill but I rolled 33% n1 rose 33% n2 rose 33% n3 rose. I think skewing that higher towards night one might have been correcter play

Word, N5 rose was clearly the correct pick!

I'm pretty sure town should just be N1 Rose/Gun. Let mafia pick N1 rose if they want to.

Thank you town for pulling out the win, and thank you FG for the excellent modding as always.

[implosion]

I think the setup should be crafted in such a way that both town and scum have incentive to pick both options.

[popsofctown]

I had night1 rose and it deflected a nightkill but I rolled 33% n1 rose 33% n2 rose 33% n3 rose. I think skewing that higher towards night one might have been correcter play

Word, N5 rose was clearly the correct pick!

I'm pretty sure town should just be N1 Rose/Gun. Let mafia pick N1 rose if they want to.

Thank you town for pulling out the win, and thank you FG for the excellent modding as always.

This might be right.

[implosion]

I don't think town should blindly take n1 options. In particular, town who are rarely killed n1 and plan to take roses ought to take later roses. I think there's other valid justifications but that's the simplest.

[FakeGod]

I agree that scum should be picking guns, but I would also like to add that in the other two games I've run offsite, the entirety of scum team were

annihilated by town N1 Guns

(!?) and the games did not even go into D2. (1st game, both scum were gunned down N1; the 2nd game, one scum was lynched D1, and other gunned down N1)

I would argue that a N1 Rose pick for scum is a viable pick.

I would also argue that there is non-zero utility in picking later nights than N1, but N1 anything is pretty clearly the dominating choice in the playspace.

[geometry]

The problem for deciding whether to pick gun or rose is analogous to "El Farol Bar problem": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Farol_Bar_problem. I've seen the problem posed a different way where twenty people simultaneously submit a card that says "no" or "yes" and they all win a billion dollars if exactly 1 player submits a yes.
El Farol Bar problem isn't broken or anything but it's kinda boring and the higher your awareness that you should probably be submitting a probability-based mixed strategy instead of incorporating player preferences the less meaningful the mechanic will add fun to the game the way a "U-pick" does.
In this particular run of the game my mixed strategy solution was like 99% rose 1% gun because the probability that FakeGod's RL friends picked gun seemed 50% each to me. So I didn't even bother rolling for a chance of holding a gun. But I would expect this to happen eventually after enough runs of the game.

Gun and rose serve different purposes

Also the current mechanic (pick all roses) isn't better