Mafiascum.net

In post 948, Raya36 wrote:

In post 941, Raya36 wrote: No my reads haven't changed too much except I feel stronger about you being scum.

Why?

Mainly PoE, T-Bone interactions, the NK being in the council as yessiree said. I can go into more detail tomorrow.

Please do, and in particular I would draw your attention to my responses to yessirree today on the NK speculation. On T-Bone interactions, at the end of the day, he was town, so there's a limit to how great I'm going to look from that. I suppose (and this was yessirree's point), it's a question of whether you can demonstrate my approach to T-Bone was logically flawed or bad faith. The fact T-Bone swore blind I was scum without giving a good reason is not a substitute for a case, and given how yesterday played out I'm even more determined that we hold people to a higher standard of argument today. So detail is very welcome.

Further to the above, we've played together a few times I think? how does my play this game compare to those other games? For my strengths, I'm not a difficult person to meta, so good to get your take on that.

In post 948, Raya36 wrote:

I'm not sure that came through at all in your previous post - you were very discerning yesterday, and that seemed pretty laissez-faire.

Can you explain why a result from last night would mean you put Nono and Moz back in the pool? There is a reason I ask.

Nono and Moz were always in the position of being my backup pool. Nothing happened overnight that changed that. But if for example we cleared one of BM and yessiree and the other was interaction cleared, or we eliminate them and we're wrong I would then look in Nono and Moz.

yeah that's the bit which interested me: if you have a pool of 2, and 1 is cleared, doesn't that just make the other one scum? so why would your first thought be to open up the pool to 2 other players (unless you needed multiple elims)?

I'm not really sure what you specifically envisage by someone becoming "interaction cleared" in this context.

HEAL: BM, yessus, arte

That's what I feel like today's council pick should be in any scenario.

Based off what had happened last night, my bet would be that scum is outside of the council, and that scum tried, and failed to put a kill through. We have a clear, and this is what is going on in my mind in thoughts to that.

Enchant brought up the idea that, we hold onto the clear so the kill tonight would be telling.

At the same time, if, the past two nights the remaining scum is outside the council, I want everyone to give their ideas on what they think should be done today.

Let's also keep in mind that At0

In post 949, Battle Mage wrote:On the blue - I'm interested in what you now consider to be the valid points vs the false premises. It feels an easy claim to make to throw shade, but is there any credible substance behind it, or are you making it up (and hoping everyone else shies away from the detail so you don't get called out on it)?

The following bolded part is what I consider to be BM's premise for pushing TBone (TB). When TB's plan came to light, (doctor no one, and track within the council) the claim that it "would have guaranteed us no information" is strictly false, as his plan would have revealed that scum took no action in a no kill scenario. Even if no-killing was a reasonable play for scum, (and one might even argue it was an optimal play by scum, but I digress) it doesn't change the fact that not using the doctor ability would've confirmed this theory instead of leaving it up for WIFOM. The part that didn't make sense from TB was the idea that a no-kill would implicate the council members if one of them were tracked. This is what I mean when I said both of you were making valid points, but it doesn't change the fact that the premise was still flawed.

In post 949, Battle Mage wrote:On the red, can you point me to where T-Bone reconsidered his read on me, or humoured an alternative possibility? Even in spite of me pushing to engage with him on facts and logical argument (rather than AtE and hyperbole which characterised much of yesterday)? Spoiler: he didn't, but flipped town.

This seems a disingenuous statement to make to make light of yesterday's push. The circumstances that TB and BM were in were complete opposite on day 2. TB had very low levels of support in the thread (Arte didn't really count for having a low presence), and was on the back foot for the majority of the day - partly for being one of the off-A50-wagon elim candidates, and partly for being wagoned right off the bat by BM's push with support from multiple people. Despite these disadvantages though, TB did show an interest to re-consider the BM read and humour the possibility of scum!nono as shown below. Contrast TB with BM, who was in a much stronger position yesterday, virtually universally townread, but used that position to tunnel TB under the notion that eliminating elsewhere would be sub-optimal. If I'm wrong here, feel free to point it out.

In post 949, Battle Mage wrote: There's a few things I'm also struggling with where you're concerned:

1. From a quick look at your ISO, you were a keen proponent of the T-Bone wagon...right up until it looked set to go over, and then you began walking it back a bit (although not with any commanding voice or obvious intent to derail it).
2. Knowing my own alignment, I figure scum would be very keen to fan the flames on the T-Bone-BM conflict. Mozamis (the only other player who didn't elim A50) did the exact opposite - pointedly trying to foster cohesion, and has continued that approach today.
3. Your claim today that scum off-council would not kill on council, doesn't accord with your claim yesterday that a hypothetical Yes-scum would have never thought to no-kill, given that you failed to note that there is no difference between killing on-council or off-council for an off-council scum, as we had telegraphed quite clearly that we weren't going to use the protect. Off-council scum would obviously kill on-council, so drawing up a false distinction to paint that as "inconceivable" to cover for yourself is a bad look.

1. TB and mozamis were the only candidate in my elim pool that were off A50's wagon. Since no one was pushing mozamis, it doesn't make sense for me to pursue any other elim target.
2. I think it would be anti-town to just forget what happened yesterday and not even consider the possibility of scum!BM. (which would cause TB to turn in his grave ) In fact, if BM's scum, this exactly is the kind of argument I'd expect them to use in this situation. And for the record I don't really TR mozzyman either for just brushing it off as TvT .
3. First, I don't exactly see what my claim today has anything to do with my claim yesterday. Second, even if council has telegraphed that doctor wasn't gonna be used last night, it's still highly risky for an outside-council scum to kill and risk getting tracked. Lastly, outside-council scum has no way of knowing if doctor wasn't actually gonna be used or not, since he has no way of knowing what the council ultimately decide to do. These makes me believe the possibility of scum being off council is extremely low.

In post 951, Artemiana wrote:HEAL: BM, yessus, arte

That's what I feel like today's council pick should be in any scenario.

Based off what had happened last night, my bet would be that scum is outside of the council, and that scum tried, and failed to put a kill through. We have a clear, and this is what is going on in my mind in thoughts to that.

Enchant brought up the idea that, we hold onto the clear so the kill tonight would be telling.

At the same time, if, the past two nights the remaining scum is outside the council, I want everyone to give their ideas on what they think should be done today.

Let's also keep in mind that At0

also[/i[ didnt want BM in the council D1 and fought against him just as much as he fought against me being in the council.

I'm Inclined to tr BM based on that

What do you mean for the bolded part??? Enchant was literally killed last night.

I think scum has been deliberately trying to keep the numbers even. No killing night 1 made it 1:7, and killing last night made it 1:5. Part of me wants to no-lim today just to mess with this plan.

If scum is off council, I could only see that being mozza and nono. If we choose to elim off council, scum will likely no kill again to keep the numbers even and drag this out.

I'm taking about N1.I think scum tried to kill BM. It doesn't make sense for scum to nk one night and then perform the kill the following night

In post 950, Battle Mage wrote: Please do, and in particular I would draw your attention to my responses to yessirree today on the NK speculation. On T-Bone interactions, at the end of the day, he was town, so there's a limit to how great I'm going to look from that. I suppose (and this was yessirree's point), it's a question of whether you can demonstrate my approach to T-Bone was logically flawed or bad faith. The fact T-Bone swore blind I was scum without giving a good reason is not a substitute for a case, and given how yesterday played out I'm even more determined that we hold people to a higher standard of argument today. So detail is very welcome.

So basically my biggest concern was during D2 I really felt that you vs T-Bone was TvS which obviously would imply you're scum. The reason for this is because of the way you two were arguing. You were both constantly trying to discredit each other. Both of you were being misleading of the other and pushing in a way that felt like you each knew the other's alignment and wanted the other gone. (T-Bone convinced you're scum and doing everything to get you eliminated, you seeing T-Bone as a threat and/or T-Bone forcing you into that 1v1.) It is possible that you were both tunneled on each other and I'm willing to consider this if someone can convince me why BM is town here. A few examples of you being misleading are below.
586 You introduce T-Bone's plan as guaranteeing no info which is not entirely true and misleading
641 Misleading in that it sounds like you're saying T-Bone didn't want to use the track at all (rather than saying he didn't want to use it in an optimal way)
706 Last point misleading, he did want to use the abilities

As for the kill, I do believe there is a higher chance someone on the council would target someone else on the council than someone off council would. Especially because the kill either failed the first night because of targeting on council (in which case you're town), or it is at least known that council healed on council the first night and it would be risky to aim there. That said, it is also important to consider that scum off wagon wouldn't want to narrow their off wagon pool if they thought we'd only be searching off-wagon (I don't believe this is true because in this case BM is town (on council) and has enough suspicion on him that it would be safe to assume town wouldn't just hunt on wagon).

Further to the above, we've played together a few times I think? how does my play this game compare to those other games? For my strengths, I'm not a difficult person to meta, so good to get your take on that.

I'm honestly not that great at meta-reading since I pick up more on personality than I do play. But I do read you as a competent player and someone who is good at scum which may be where a lot of my suspicion is coming from.

yeah that's the bit which interested me: if you have a pool of 2, and 1 is cleared, doesn't that just make the other one scum? so why would your first thought be to open up the pool to 2 other players (unless you needed multiple elims)?

I'm not really sure what you specifically envisage by someone becoming "interaction cleared" in this context.

It means the other one is probably scum and that's of course who I would be pushing for but I like to rank my townreads as a sort of backup plan if I'm wrong.

Interaction cleared would be for example nono and moz who I've been "interaction clearing" because of A50. In the context of T-Bone maybe there was someone who was really pushing against the T-Bone elimination who I could townread for that to a lesser extent. Idk, I haven't really had a chance to go back and look over everything yet.

HEAL: Raya, Art, Moz
I could switch Moz for Nono

In post 956, Raya36 wrote:

In post 950, Battle Mage wrote: Please do, and in particular I would draw your attention to my responses to yessirree today on the NK speculation. On T-Bone interactions, at the end of the day, he was town, so there's a limit to how great I'm going to look from that. I suppose (and this was yessirree's point), it's a question of whether you can demonstrate my approach to T-Bone was logically flawed or bad faith. The fact T-Bone swore blind I was scum without giving a good reason is not a substitute for a case, and given how yesterday played out I'm even more determined that we hold people to a higher standard of argument today. So detail is very welcome.

So basically my biggest concern was during D2 I really felt that you vs T-Bone was TvS which obviously would imply you're scum. The reason for this is because of the way you two were arguing. You were both constantly trying to discredit each other.

Both of you were being misleading of the other and pushing in a way that felt like you each knew the other's alignment and wanted the other gone

.

Bold can't be true though can it? If we were TvS, 1 of us would know the other's alignment, and the other wouldn't. Don't get me wrong, I can definitely buy the TvS rationale, because I thought the same yesterday. T-Bone didn't show any interest in engaging with me in a broader discussion about things which were AI, and didn't show any interest in really objectively sorting me, or any other players (until the last minute when he pushed a counter-wagon), which I perceived to be scummy. However, my general experience of the interaction you describe - where 2 players push each other very hard and conspicuously - is that they are often TvT. Simply put, where's the benefit to scum-BM of pushing T-Bone as I did? I would more likely have faded into the background, and just NKed him if I really wanted him gone as it's less conspicuous.

In post 956, Raya36 wrote: (T-Bone convinced you're scum and doing everything to get you eliminated, you seeing T-Bone as a threat and/or T-Bone forcing you into that 1v1.)

This isn't what happened though - I suspected T-Bone and T-Bone OMGUSed me, so he didn't force me into a 1v1. And as above, in general when scum perceive somebody to be a threat, the last thing they do is 1v1 them during the day.

In post 956, Raya36 wrote: It is possible that you were both tunneled on each other and I'm willing to consider this if someone can convince me why BM is town here.

I don't think I was tunnelled on T-Bone, I think I had good reason for thinking he was scum and I was wrong. I explicitly didn't exclude other possibilities, or claim he was "confscum" or anything like that. Always elim the scummiest player is a manta which minimises regrets. I don't want to dwell too much on T-Bone's play yesterday out of courtesy, but I think if he'd engaged with me as I asked on multiple occasions he could have avoided being mis-elimmed. Instead he resorted to AtE and an inadequately explained OMGUS tunnel on me, which wasn't compelling.

In post 956, Raya36 wrote: A few examples of you being misleading are below.
586 You introduce T-Bone's plan as guaranteeing no info which is not entirely true and misleading
641 Misleading in that it sounds like you're saying T-Bone didn't want to use the track at all (rather than saying he didn't want to use it in an optimal way)
706 Last point misleading, he did want to use the abilities

These examples all effectively amount to the same thing, so I'll address them with 1 response:

In all cases, although the wording is arguably unclear as I abbreviated, the point was obvious - in posts 706 and 641 my feeling was that T-Bone pushed very hard to get on the council, only to not want to use the abilities (his plan was to not use the protect, and to use the track on somebody within the council, which would preclude us from either blocking a kill or securing a red-check). Moreover, to the extent my wording was sloppy, the substance of the point was in any case correct from my perspective and so I didn't take something not scummy and frame it as scummy - I noted something scummy and didn't choose my words carefully in my haste to explain why it was scummy. I originally responded to this in post 720. On 586, I considered the information gained from T-Bone's plan to be of nil value - as we discussed subsequently, I concede it would have had some value (we could have known whether scum killed or not and we potentially missed out on a green-check by protecting me), although I stand by my broader point that it would have, all else being equal, resulted in lower quality information than tracking someone who could actually have committed the kill. You may argue in retrospect that I was wrong about optimal use of the night actions, but I don't think my view at the time was stupid or completely irrational. And crucially, there isn't a particularly good rationale for scum to mislead about matters of fact - a maximum of 1 of us on the N1 council was scum, and so it would be pointless to lie about what was or wasn't said. And equally as I said in respect of T-Bone, it isn't as simple as assuming scum would deliberately push for sub-optimal nightplay - it depends on the context and what they would achieve from the night actions - hence understanding motive goes a step beyond what someone said, to why they said it.

In post 956, Raya36 wrote: As for the kill, I do believe there is a higher chance someone on the council would target someone else on the council than someone off council would.

Especially because the kill either failed the first night because of targeting on council (in which case you're town),

or it is at least known that council healed on council the first night and it would be risky to aim there

.

We had a protracted debate yesterday in the thread where it was concluded unanimously that it was optimal to not use the protect - I don't think you really believe the bit in bold is plausible.

On the bit in italics...the only person on-council who could have targetted me N1 is you - presumably you're not claiming that to be the case, so N1 any kill would have been off-council targetting on-council.

In post 956, Raya36 wrote: That said, it is also important to consider that scum off wagon wouldn't want to narrow their off wagon pool if they thought we'd only be searching off-wagon (I don't believe this is true because in this case BM is town (on council) and has enough suspicion on him that it would be safe to assume town wouldn't just hunt on wagon).

I have mixed feelings about the likely confidence levels of off-wagon scum. Although the stronger evidence for your point is yesterday's wagon on Nono.

In post 956, Raya36 wrote:

Further to the above, we've played together a few times I think? how does my play this game compare to those other games? For my strengths, I'm not a difficult person to meta, so good to get your take on that.

I'm honestly not that great at meta-reading since I pick up more on personality than I do play. But I do read you as a competent player and someone who is good at scum which may be where a lot of my suspicion is coming from.

I think we just finished a game together where I was scum. Admittedly it was a particularly poor game from the scumteam as a whole, but it was a decent illustration of what my scum-meta normally is - lurk and do minimum (with some exceptions). I can be good and active as scum but it's pretty hit and miss. As town in small games I'm fairly consistent in my dogged and zealous approach.

In post 956, Raya36 wrote:

yeah that's the bit which interested me: if you have a pool of 2, and 1 is cleared, doesn't that just make the other one scum? so why would your first thought be to open up the pool to 2 other players (unless you needed multiple elims)?

I'm not really sure what you specifically envisage by someone becoming "interaction cleared" in this context.

It means the other one is probably scum and that's of course who I would be pushing for but I like to rank my townreads as a sort of backup plan if I'm wrong.

Interaction cleared would be for example nono and moz who I've been "interaction clearing" because of A50. In the context of T-Bone maybe there was someone who was really pushing against the T-Bone elimination who I could townread for that to a lesser extent. Idk, I haven't really had a chance to go back and look over everything yet.

Minor point, but in my view it it's pretty hard to interaction-clear someone based on their approach to a town-elim. Interesting you assume, as I did, that those against the T-Bone wagon should get some town-cred. I don't think that's an unreasonable assumption, but it is an assumption.

I'll respond to Yessirree later, but I'm saddened that at least 1 town player thinks I tunnelled T-Bone like a moron yesterday.

ummmmmmmmmm lol
are we going to lynch Nono and win the game or what?

Raya loooks more and more town, so council:

HEAL: Mozamis, BattleMage, Raya

Although if we lynch Nono, we won't need a council:
VOTE: NONO

Try and see the wood from the trees, people!

I could Heal: Moz, Bm Yessiree instead of Raya.
Anyone apart from Nono (ninety percent scum) or Arte (ten percent scum, mainly 'cos they seem pleasant lol sory if you are town Arte)

In post 957, Raya36 wrote:HEAL: Raya, Art, Moz
I could switch Moz for Nono

I don't like this one at all

Also nope.

HEAL: BM, Yessus, Nono

If you are town moz... Read content

I have skimmed with is enough for anyone to see that BM, Mage and Yessiree are definite town. You're very likely town as well.
It's as clear as day that Nono is scum.
Wood from the trees, look at Bm and Raya today, arguing the toss over EVERTHING lol That's town.
This game is unusually strightforward, mainly becaus everyone has done a damn good job of being town.
So let send it and vote Nono.

People want it to be complicated and WIFOMY , and analysis the Nk, and role spec, it's somehting to do, and people get paranoid. I understand that.
But this game is simple.

Caveat: if I am wrong about Nono, then onviously things are difficult, because someone is playing a really good scum game.
But that's unlikely.

Hang on, has there been some sort of claim, which makes everything I just said an ABSOLUTE NONSENSE lol?
AArte could you summarise, I just cant handle all that Tvs Town Raya and BM stuff, it's just a waste of time, like T-Bone and BM was yesterday.

In post 958, Battle Mage wrote: Bold can't be true though can it? If we were TvS, 1 of us would know the other's alignment, and the other wouldn't. Don't get me wrong, I can definitely buy the TvS rationale, because I thought the same yesterday. T-Bone didn't show any interest in engaging with me in a broader discussion about things which were AI, and didn't show any interest in really objectively sorting me, or any other players (until the last minute when he pushed a counter-wagon), which I perceived to be scummy. However, my general experience of the interaction you describe - where 2 players push each other very hard and conspicuously - is that they are often TvT. Simply put, where's the benefit to scum-BM of pushing T-Bone as I did? I would more likely have faded into the background, and just NKed him if I really wanted him gone as it's less conspicuous.

Not entirely true, but true in the sense of what I added in brackets. Interactions like this aren't always TvT and scum don't always just leave things for the nk. Especially when scum is alone and highly out numbered at this point. I would argue that could call for being a bit more vocal in a situation where you're scum being heavily scumread by someone who is a strong player and knows how to control the game state and get you eliminated. Also T-Bone's NK would point to you being scum so if you needed to get rid of him somehow, the day would be the best bet where you've at least explained yourself.

This isn't what happened though - I suspected T-Bone and T-Bone OMGUSed me, so he didn't force me into a 1v1. And as above, in general when scum perceive somebody to be a threat, the last thing they do is 1v1 them during the day.

I kind of explained my point on T-Bone being a threat and why scum!you would go after them during the day above I think.

I don't think I was tunnelled on T-Bone, I think I had good reason for thinking he was scum and I was wrong. I explicitly didn't exclude other possibilities, or claim he was "confscum" or anything like that. Always elim the scummiest player is a manta which minimises regrets. I don't want to dwell too much on T-Bone's play yesterday out of courtesy, but I think if he'd engaged with me as I asked on multiple occasions he could have avoided being mis-elimmed. Instead he resorted to AtE and an inadequately explained OMGUS tunnel on me, which wasn't compelling.

Maybe not tunneled but it's possible you were both genuinely convinced the other was town. The idea of tunneling comes from the aggressiveness from both sides and the misreps

These examples all effectively amount to the same thing, so I'll address them with 1 response:

In all cases, although the wording is arguably unclear as I abbreviated, the point was obvious - in posts 706 and 641 my feeling was that T-Bone pushed very hard to get on the council, only to not want to use the abilities

to good effect

(his plan was to not use the protect, and to use the track on somebody within the council, which would preclude us from either blocking a kill or securing a red-check). Moreover, to the extent my wording was sloppy, the substance of the point was in any case correct from my perspective and so I didn't take something not scummy and frame it as scummy - I noted something scummy and didn't choose my words carefully in my haste to explain why it was scummy. I originally responded to this in post 720. On 586, I considered the information gained from T-Bone's plan to be of nil value - as we discussed subsequently, I concede it would have had some value (we could have known whether scum killed or not and we potentially missed out on a green-check by protecting me), although I stand by my broader point that it would have, all else being equal, resulted in lower quality information than tracking someone who could actually have committed the kill. You may argue in retrospect that I was wrong about optimal use of the night actions, but I don't think my view at the time was stupid or completely irrational. And crucially, there isn't a particularly good rationale for scum to mislead about matters of fact - a maximum of 1 of us on the N1 council was scum, and so it would be pointless to lie about what was or wasn't said. And equally as I said in respect of T-Bone, it isn't as simple as assuming scum would deliberately push for sub-optimal nightplay - it depends on the context and what they would achieve from the night actions - hence understanding motive goes a step beyond what someone said, to why they said it.

Maybe we need to just leave this one at agree to disagree for argument's sake but I don't think your points would have been obvious to someone outside the council trying to follow all the wall posts containing info they didn't see first hand. If you're scum, by doing this you could win the favour of the town who are unaware of what truly happened with false arguments. It is also a good way to create confusion. If you're town then I guess it was unintentional as you explained and we just disagree on what is clear.

We had a protracted debate yesterday in the thread where it was concluded unanimously that it was optimal to not use the protect - I don't think you really believe the bit in bold is plausible.

On the bit in italics...the only person on-council who could have targetted me N1 is you - presumably you're not claiming that to be the case, so N1 any kill would have been off-council targetting on-council.

Bold: A single outnumbered scum might want to be careful with their nk. Wifom on if the council would use the protect even after the discussion. Although you're right about this point. More likely scum wouldn't be that worried after the discussion
Italics: Oops, you're right

I think we just finished a game together where I was scum. Admittedly it was a particularly poor game from the scumteam as a whole, but it was a decent illustration of what my scum-meta normally is - lurk and do minimum (with some exceptions). I can be good and active as scum but it's pretty hit and miss. As town in small games I'm fairly consistent in my dogged and zealous approach.

I'll take another look at this once I get a chance.

Minor point, but in my view it it's pretty hard to interaction-clear someone based on their approach to a town-elim. Interesting you assume, as I did, that those against the T-Bone wagon should get some town-cred. I don't think that's an unreasonable assumption, but it is an assumption.

Yeah, I agree which is exactly why I haven't bothered to check T-Bone interactions yet

In post 959, Battle Mage wrote:I'll respond to Yessirree later, but I'm saddened that at least 1 town player thinks I tunnelled T-Bone like a moron yesterday.

Maybe a bit tunneled but not like a moron. I was pretty convinced too

In post 961, mozamis wrote:Raya loooks more and more town, so council:

HEAL: Mozamis, BattleMage, Raya

Although if we lynch Nono, we won't need a council:
VOTE: NONO

Try and see the wood from the trees, people!

Trade BM for Art?

Oh nvm. I read the next post

Nono is track cleared let's move on

The way I see it, scum is between

Yessus, Moz, Raya

If were going to go with the theory that scum tried to kill both N1 and N2 then it's obviously going to be Mozzyman Cuz like

Yessus would be cleared, and Raya would know who to shoot.

Between the three that were on the council D1 I would count on Raya playing the WIFOM game here because of the fact that, she is the only one that A50 did not have any comments on at any point of.the day. I also don't remember much of what Raya had to say about A50 either.

That aside, the actions Raya did d2 and her failure to clarify what had happened in the council thread and let BM and Tbone have a he said she said fight was incredibly weird and worth looking into