Mafiascum.net

In post 949, Meuh wrote:

In post 948, catboi wrote:No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

My mentality coming into this day was that you were 95% scum, so my energy is shifted towards going over the alternate possibilities and their validity, and while ofc confbias is a thing, everything is lined up in a way where Marci could very well be fakeclaiming. I haven't really made my mind up on if I do think it is her, and there's no rush really, I was just making sure the theory stood strong enough to warrant being considered, and it does

Basically, same.

I came into today thinking we were going to have two clear players + me + catboi, and that meant it was 100% catboi from my pov. But his case on Marci makes enough sense that I am no longer at 100%. Suddenly I have a new problem to solve

Did town!catboi spend night 3 scouring for an alternative scum because he townread me (see post 869) and spotted this fakeclaim from marci
OR
Did scum!catboi spend night 3 scouring for the best person to shift suspicion to after he thought he would lose the 1v1 with me (see post 878) and he came up with a plan to blame marci?

In post 950, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 949, Meuh wrote:

In post 948, catboi wrote:No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

My mentality coming into this day was that you were 95% scum, so my energy is shifted towards going over the alternate possibilities and their validity, and while ofc confbias is a thing, everything is lined up in a way where Marci could very well be fakeclaiming. I haven't really made my mind up on if I do think it is her, and there's no rush really, I was just making sure the theory stood strong enough to warrant being considered, and it does

Basically, same.

I came into today thinking we were going to have two clear players + me + catboi, and that meant it was 100% catboi from my pov. But his case on Marci makes enough sense that I am no longer at 100%. Suddenly I have a new problem to solve

Did town!catboi spend night 3 scouring for an alternative scum because he townread me (see post 869) and spotted this fakeclaim from marci
OR
Did scum!catboi spend night 3 scouring for the best person to shift suspicion to after he thought he would lose the 1v1 with me (see post 878) and he came up with a plan to blame marci?

Yeah, that's the issue. It's hard to determine his intent regarding this push, I can see it from either alignment.
Why were you 100% on Catboi? Couldn't I also be scum?（＞人＜；) smh smh I'm capable of being evil!

In post 951, Meuh wrote:

In post 950, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 949, Meuh wrote:

In post 948, catboi wrote:No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

My mentality coming into this day was that you were 95% scum, so my energy is shifted towards going over the alternate possibilities and their validity, and while ofc confbias is a thing, everything is lined up in a way where Marci could very well be fakeclaiming. I haven't really made my mind up on if I do think it is her, and there's no rush really, I was just making sure the theory stood strong enough to warrant being considered, and it does

Basically, same.

I came into today thinking we were going to have two clear players + me + catboi, and that meant it was 100% catboi from my pov. But his case on Marci makes enough sense that I am no longer at 100%. Suddenly I have a new problem to solve

Did town!catboi spend night 3 scouring for an alternative scum because he townread me (see post 869) and spotted this fakeclaim from marci
OR
Did scum!catboi spend night 3 scouring for the best person to shift suspicion to after he thought he would lose the 1v1 with me (see post 878) and he came up with a plan to blame marci?

Yeah, that's the issue. It's hard to determine his intent regarding this push, I can see it from either alignment.
Why were you 100% on Catboi? Couldn't I also be scum?（＞人＜；) smh smh I'm capable of being evil!

I had checked you off due to Marci's clear on you. Once VFP flipped as the goon, that would make the other scum the PR, so it did not make sense for scum!you to not have moved night 1.

In post 952, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 951, Meuh wrote:

In post 950, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 949, Meuh wrote:

In post 948, catboi wrote:No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

My mentality coming into this day was that you were 95% scum, so my energy is shifted towards going over the alternate possibilities and their validity, and while ofc confbias is a thing, everything is lined up in a way where Marci could very well be fakeclaiming. I haven't really made my mind up on if I do think it is her, and there's no rush really, I was just making sure the theory stood strong enough to warrant being considered, and it does

Basically, same.

I came into today thinking we were going to have two clear players + me + catboi, and that meant it was 100% catboi from my pov. But his case on Marci makes enough sense that I am no longer at 100%. Suddenly I have a new problem to solve

Did town!catboi spend night 3 scouring for an alternative scum because he townread me (see post 869) and spotted this fakeclaim from marci
OR
Did scum!catboi spend night 3 scouring for the best person to shift suspicion to after he thought he would lose the 1v1 with me (see post 878) and he came up with a plan to blame marci?

Yeah, that's the issue. It's hard to determine his intent regarding this push, I can see it from either alignment.
Why were you 100% on Catboi? Couldn't I also be scum?（＞人＜；) smh smh I'm capable of being evil!

I had checked you off due to Marci's clear on you. Once VFP flipped as the goon, that would make the other scum the PR, so it did not make sense for scum!you to not have moved night 1.

I could see a paranoid scumteam have the goon kill and rber do nothing tbh
In A1, it's safe to rb, in A2 there's the risk of tracker and in A3, there's no benefit to rbing, in some contexts it's probably better not to rb, although it seems like a good idea generally

Maybe I shouldn't be arguing this point considering I'm arguing for myself possibly being scum

Meuh, which way are you leaning atm? Personally, I am struggling

Like, I read through Marci's iso, and I start leaning towards it being her, and then I read through catboi's iso and I start leaning towards it being him.

SAME I just confbias myself into believing whichever theory I'm thinking of
I'm starting to think it's Marci though... my gut's telling me it's her but the last time my gut told me something it was that Norwee was scum so I don't think I can really trust it

I feel like everything's lined up for scum!Marci to make sense, while scum!Catboi has more things that put me off about it yknow? The whole VFP vote for example

In post 950, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 949, Meuh wrote:

In post 948, catboi wrote:No rush. Take your time.

I must admit while it's nice that my case is being considered the fact that the response from both meuh and lukewarm is essentially "yeah that makes sense" is a little unnerving >_>

My mentality coming into this day was that you were 95% scum, so my energy is shifted towards going over the alternate possibilities and their validity, and while ofc confbias is a thing, everything is lined up in a way where Marci could very well be fakeclaiming. I haven't really made my mind up on if I do think it is her, and there's no rush really, I was just making sure the theory stood strong enough to warrant being considered, and it does

Basically, same.

I came into today thinking we were going to have two clear players + me + catboi, and that meant it was 100% catboi from my pov. But his case on Marci makes enough sense that I am no longer at 100%. Suddenly I have a new problem to solve

Did town!catboi spend night 3 scouring for an alternative scum because he townread me (see post 869) and spotted this fakeclaim from marci
OR
Did scum!catboi spend night 3 scouring for the best person to shift suspicion to after he thought he would lose the 1v1 with me (see post 878) and he came up with a plan to blame marci?

I think if I were scum looking to 1v1 you, I could make arguments there, and it's easier to to fight that way and "win" an argument because scum and town will act similarly in this situation - both know their elimination will lose the game and that voting the other person wins it.

I also think I *can* make a very strong argument for me being town but don't want to just yet, because I do want to get a sense of if people are legitimately solving or not.

In post 955, Lukewarm wrote:Meuh, which way are you leaning atm? Personally, I am struggling

Like, I read through Marci's iso, and I start leaning towards it being her, and then I read through catboi's iso and I start leaning towards it being him.

Can you explain your thinking? Vague statements like this are unhelpful.

okay okay hopefully I have enough time to type my case this time! I got hw to do after tho

I'm not really like 100% sure on this... but its the best idea i've got..
To me, even though meuh as a small chance of being scum still, I believe she's got to be town based on how she didn't visit that very first night.
So that leaves it between lukewarm-catboi for me.. My original idea at the start of the day was that it to be lukewarm, I was so confident in that.. but now I'm not as sure in that read.

I have reasons, but idk which ordering of the reasons would be the easiest to read my thought process..



447 Just doesn't really sit right with me.. Like, we now know that there was a jailkeep, and that samawoodoo/vfp slot was scum.. So like this reaction really just seems like he thought in3kro could've been jailkeep at the time because of that vote..
Like, seems like a slight push, but not a quite obvious one and an easy to backout one. +He was so wary about that time about anything pertaining to a jailkeep... I feel like it's very possible he was scared of jailkeep outing his partner, since there was no kill for the first night, scum was surely aware of the possibility?

503 he was hesitant to vote vfp at that moment, despite the slot being sus, and not a really good push from it
569 he continues to push the idea that vfps slot is town
618 he continues to prefer someone else over vfp..

670 he suses vfp, but still prefers lukewarm > him. (673 rethinks it, but that could just be realizing his partner would soon become the bandwagon of the day, and that he would be scummier if he stayed off of it).
676 pushes forward the notion that a scum elim = automatic loss. seems like he just really wanted us to believe something, after he got on his partner
864 puts forth the motion that t3 will end the game.

608 after i claim tracker he unvoted me... but said he just wanted my claim out in the open..? Like, what townie wants their prs exposed to scum..?
(when I later questioned it.., he responded with 731. at the time, it felt like good reasoning, but now looking back on it with the view that he's scum it very much just seems like he wanted me 100% outed so he would know how to best use his na )

642 he tries to push forth the motion that he doesnt have a partner, which... isn't all that believeable if its coming from the person themselves
865 he tries to push forward the motion that hes obv town

---
908 917 he starts pushing out the motion that its me.... but before he pushed out my claim despite knowing what it would be??? Seems a bit planned to me ngl.

934 (and another post that i forgot which) tries to say im "scum trying to tie townies down to their partner" essentially, right? but wouldn't town be trying to keep their eyes out for possible duos?
In 934 he also brought up the fact that I was susing a vfp x lukewarm team, but then didnt follow through with it, but in the post he straightup quoted then, i said im stressed. I wasn't very active that day because of my stress, so would i really be able to follow through at that point? He brought it up, just to incriminate me, while its not really something that should be viewed as "sus" imo.

At the bottom of 936 he makes an argument thats very "this or that".. VFP could've been doing that to reduce it to a pool of townies, yeah, but also he could've been doing that so that you hes trying to.

937 he makes the point that vfp avoided voting me when i was at e-1 but... wouldn't it be so obviously scummy of him to hammer me, and then i end up as tracker? don't townies think about that too and wait for claims..? It's not really all that incriminating imo.

summary: yesterday after seeing how everyone were more likely to lean towards him out of everyone, he crafted the perfect plan to get me out. I'm the easiest to put doubt on and get away with, and hes using a few points that are fairly weak.



He's more sure of it being me than anyone, but "doesn't want to rush into things" I doubt thats true, I think the only reason he hasn't placed a vote on me so far, is that he's waiting for others to do it so he can be the hammer. (Because it can still go anyway)
This is the read i'm most confident in, so I'll be voting it VOTE: catboi, if its lukewarm... i've truly been tricked and i'll take the blame for this loss.

Ah, marci...so this is the path you've chosen. I'm assuming you're scum who sees pushing me as your best hope, but I'll give what you say a look.

I'm not going to respond to every point here, just some of the ones I feel are most important, because a long blow by blow becomes tedious and hard to read.

In post 960, marcistar wrote:447 Just doesn't really sit right with me.. Like, we now know that there was a jailkeep, and that samawoodoo/vfp slot was scum.. So like this reaction really just seems like he thought in3kro could've been jailkeep at the time because of that vote..
Like, seems like a slight push, but not a quite obvious one and an easy to backout one. +He was so wary about that time about anything pertaining to a jailkeep... I feel like it's very possible he was scared of jailkeep outing his partner, since there was no kill for the first night, scum was surely aware of the possibility?

Why would I assume he could be jailkeeper right after him explicitly claiming he wasn't?

I can't say for certain, but if someone puts a naked vote on my partner, I'm more likely to ignore it than to question it. in3kro barely explained most of their reads in the game, my question was to try to get a little more explanation from him to read him better (and I might have thought Sama was a plausible suspect at the time and wanted to hear if there was a good case, I don't really remember).

In post 960, marcistar wrote:608 after i claim tracker he unvoted me... but said he just wanted my claim out in the open..? Like, what townie wants their prs exposed to scum..?
(when I later questioned it.., he responded with 731. at the time, it felt like good reasoning, but now looking back on it with the view that he's scum it very much just seems like he wanted me 100% outed so he would know how to best use his na )

If I had a PR read as scum, I wouldn't push them so they'd claim. I'd let them say hidden in the dark so I could NK them without fear of them being protected.

In post 960, marcistar wrote:642 he tries to push forth the motion that he doesnt have a partner, which... isn't all that believeable if its coming from the person themselves

the reason I said that at the time was that I believed the setup was B3, and we had 4 clear town and a pool of 4 unclears (me, VFP, T3, and Lukewarm) which had to contain 2 mafia. In that scenario, mafia bussing means an automatic loss. All of VFP, T3, and Lukewarm were voting me. In my view at that moment in time, the mafia were piling on to me because they needed to eliminate town to avoid losing. If I were mafia in this scenario, my partner would be bussing me into autoloss, and I'd have been screaming at them to not vote me so we wouldn't lose. At that moment in time there wasn't anyone I could reasonably be said to be scum with.

In post 960, marcistar wrote:934 (and another post that i forgot which) tries to say im "scum trying to tie townies down to their partner" essentially, right? but wouldn't town be trying to keep their eyes out for possible duos?
In 934 he also brought up the fact that I was susing a vfp x lukewarm team, but then didnt follow through with it, but in the post he straightup quoted then, i said im stressed. I wasn't very active that day because of my stress, so would i really be able to follow through at that point? He brought it up, just to incriminate me, while its not really something that should be viewed as "sus" imo.

While I think town can make reads about possible teams, and often do (as several people have this game), I think the particular practice of doing pre-flip associations where someone gets tied to scum is something mafia do very frequently. By itself, I wouldn't consider it a strong point, but given your overall progression on samawoodo/VFP, and VFP exhibiting a similar behavior toward you, I find it a suspect sort of interaction.

Listen, I can't know that you were stressed. And that can be entirely true regardless of what goes on in the game. I can only report what I see, which is that while you tried to say VFP and Lukewarm were teamed the day before, the day after when the momentum went in another direction, you didn't say anything. Why WOULDN'T I find that suspect?

In post 960, marcistar wrote:937 he makes the point that vfp avoided voting me when i was at e-1 but... wouldn't it be so obviously scummy of him to hammer me, and then i end up as tracker? don't townies think about that too and wait for claims..? It's not really all that incriminating imo.

Doesn't matter if it's incriminating, a free elimination is still a free elimination. Granted, not everyone has guts to quickhammer on a ML as scum. But the fact that he held back patiently when he had been FoSing her for most of his time in the game and then just sort of quietly accepted marci's claim is what I find suspect.

Npw, let me towncase myself:

I don't think I can be cleared based on my read of VFP. It was simply not good on my part. It happens, my reads as town typically aren't that great and I'm very all over the pace. I probably gave him too much credit for having an "unorthodox" scum read. I hesitantly thought he was townie and even when I switched to scumreading him I overreacted to lukewarm and voted him at a few points. I don't think I'd have interacted this way with him as scum, but you are under no obligation to believe me. I don't like bussing as scum, but when I do it, I commit to the read - hopping back and forth on VFP, as I did, jus gets the worst of both worlds, I increase the chances he gets eliminated while not securing much cred for myself. I would either have committed to pushing him on day 2 or stuck with voting lukewarm. But self-meta arguments like this are wifom, and none of you really know me, so I don't expect you to believe that. That's okay. You don't have to.

What I do think town clears me is this:

In post 179, Samawoodo wrote:

In post 173, catboi wrote:

In post 146, Meuh wrote:

@Not_Mafia:

thoughts on Tori?

@Samawoodo:

thoughts on Catboi?

@Tori:

thoughts on Marci and Sama?

@iN3krO:

thoughts on Sama and Tori?

@NorwegianboyEE:

Could you explain how your read on Sama evolved from #68 to #125?

@Marci:

Thoughts on Tori?

@Pearofclubs:

Thoughts on Marci and Sama?

@Catboi:

Thoughts on N_M and Norwee?

I'm going to pointedly refuse to answer this and instead ask why you felt the need to ask everyone about different people.

Ok i didnt read this when i wrote my previous post

I dont see the point of that tbh, i mean, is not like he asked you for a 2v2 or something like that (anyway, that wouldn't be a problem either). Is like you are being so defensive without reason (We are at D1 still)

If someone ask about my thoughts, i wouldnt have any problem sharing them

I hope you are not afraid of sharing them

This response from Sama to me isn't how a newbie responds to their partner. He's shading me for not answering Meuh. Newbies generally won't call out their partner so directly in position like this.

In post 615, VFP wrote:

In post 569, catboi wrote:I do think VFP is probably townie.

In post 610, catboi wrote:VOTE: VFP

I guess I'll compromise. I don't think I fos not_mafia anymore.

A bit of a change of heart there?

I can lim Catboi today as it's probably just catboi and Pear with NM as the back up.
608 was just basically trying to get a confirmation of a PR.

VOTE: Catboi

When I voted him on day 2, before not_mafia had even claimed, VFP immediately pushed back onto me. In this scenario, . mafia aren't going to make plays like this. I'd be telling him not to do it. And I'm the one he pushes, for the rest of the day up until the point he's eliminated:

In post 662, VFP wrote:I'm not CC here.
So Pear is actually town then. Catboi is flipping red here.

In post 735, VFP wrote:Catboi is still the better vote in terms of giving an extra clear with a scum down, but I think it's still a win regardless.
T3 is going to be town here and Catboi / Lukewarm are going to be the scum team.

Just go with that and don't let anyone de rail tomorrow.

In post 774, VFP wrote:

In post 773, Lukewarm wrote:My concern with this post, is that if you do flip town, that would leave the PoE down to me+caboi, which I already know is not true

Then lim Catboi and work it from there.

The simple fact is that if I were scum with VFP then he was actively trying to lose the game from midway on day 2. Mafia don't bus into autoloss. It just doesn't happen. There's no way I make sense as scum with VFP.

@Meuh, you said that you have a lot of experience playing with Marci, right? Can you weigh in on something that has stood out to me?

In your experience playing with her, is Marci normally particularly hesitant / apologetic as a town player? She seems very hesitant to make her claims without first making it clear that she is unsure and she also repeatedly set up an out of game reason why she might be underperforming as a town player. In my experience, town players seem more inclined to just confidently be wrong. But this can vary a lot by player

If you want some meta, this is the game I played with marcistar before this one: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=85388

She got suspected early but I found her to be fairly obvious town. Her reads were actually pretty good that game, mine were a mess. I think I checked it earlier in this game, from memory she was somewhat cautious in her reads that game but still was more proactive which is why I suspected her on day 2 in this game

(the meta is not really part of my case, but since you asked I am presenting it so that you may draw your own conclusions to the question you asked)

Reading through Marci's iso in that game kind of backs up my point from 965. She is a lot less hesitant in her own reads, very confidently pushes on her top two scum reads, and even complains about another player doing exactly what I see her doing in this game.

In post 35, marcistar wrote: this confuses me pickles sounds a bit unsure here.. is this a serious vote? the ...? makes it sound accusing and unsure but like, in a way that they could easily back down from that if they get challenged on it.

Would still like Meuh to weigh in on this since she has more experience with Marci.

@Meuh, on the other hand, this is a post from catboi that stood out to me.

In post 629, catboi wrote:If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim.

Like it is hard to see this, and not think it is a soft pr claim.

It further irks me because at the time that he made this post, he only had 2 votes on him. So he was no where near being voted off, so it was not a "if someone is about to hammer me, I will claim my role as VT"

In post 959, catboi wrote:

In post 955, Lukewarm wrote:Meuh, which way are you leaning atm? Personally, I am struggling

Like, I read through Marci's iso, and I start leaning towards it being her, and then I read through catboi's iso and I start leaning towards it being him.

Can you explain your thinking? Vague statements like this are unhelpful.

Just for the record, since I've laid most of my cards on the table already:

Lukewarm? This post scared the hell out of me. Because in all my experience playing mafia, I often find scum say things like this at ELO. The fencesitting without visible commitment or analysis, I've seen it many times.

Now, that doesn't mean it's inherently scummy. Town can make posts that sound very scummy, and they can fencesit as well, especially in a situation like this. So it's a post town make. But it's also a post scum make, because when two townies are attacking each other scum want to seem like they're giving them consideration but don't want to make the first move. So I asked you because I want to see your thinking behind things, rather than just words about how you're feeling, so I can hopefully get a handle on whether it's believable.

Now, I'm not acting hastily and changing my mind on a single post here. I learned my lesson from doing that before. I'm not going to discard the evidence from all the rest of the game for a hasty judgment based on a paranoid read of something that only happened this game day. (in fact, when I was looking back at VFP's ISO, I felt his final comments toward you were somewhat un-partnery)

But as I'm being completely transparent with my thought process right now, I just felt I should be open with how I felt about this post. (If you're town, don't say stuff like this!)

In post 969, Lukewarm wrote:@Meuh, on the other hand, this is a post from catboi that stood out to me.

In post 629, catboi wrote:If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim.

Like it is hard to see this, and not think it is a soft pr claim.

It further irks me because at the time that he made this post, he only had 2 votes on him. So he was no where near being voted off, so it was not a "if someone is about to hammer me, I will claim my role as VT"

I thought at the time there were multiple people scumreading me and that it was possible I'd end up as the default wagon since there wasn't someone else people were really pushing.

I'm stubborn about claiming though, you can see it in the other game, where I got run up on day 1:

In post 263, catboi wrote:Yeah, I absolutely am not claiming unless there's intent to hammer, that'd be a bad idea. I'll vote Lone if necessary for self-preservation.

I don't think I really softclaim as either alignment, but if I was going to hint at a PR as mafia I probably would just claim it rather than claiming VT.

I think in that game I got suspected because I made a big deal about claiming too. I don't want to reread the whole thing though because my play was embarrassing

In post 970, catboi wrote:

In post 959, catboi wrote:

In post 955, Lukewarm wrote:Meuh, which way are you leaning atm? Personally, I am struggling

Like, I read through Marci's iso, and I start leaning towards it being her, and then I read through catboi's iso and I start leaning towards it being him.

Can you explain your thinking? Vague statements like this are unhelpful.

Just for the record, since I've laid most of my cards on the table already:

Lukewarm? This post scared the hell out of me. Because in all my experience playing mafia, I often find scum say things like this at ELO. The fencesitting without visible commitment or analysis, I've seen it many times.

Now, that doesn't mean it's inherently scummy. Town can make posts that sound very scummy, and they can fencesit as well, especially in a situation like this. So it's a post town

can

make. But it's also a post scum

would

make, because when two townies are attacking each other scum want to seem like they're giving them consideration but don't want to make the first move. So I asked you because I want to see your thinking behind things, rather than just words about how you're feeling, so I can hopefully get a handle on whether it's believable.

Now, I'm not acting hastily and changing my mind on a single post here. I learned my lesson from doing that before. I'm not going to discard the evidence from all the rest of the game for a hasty judgment based on a paranoid read of something that only happened this game day. (in fact, when I was looking back at VFP's ISO, I felt his final comments toward you were somewhat un-partnery)

But as I'm being completely transparent with my thought process right now, I just felt I should be open with how I felt about this post. (If you're town, don't say stuff like this!)

Yeah, I made that statement because I knew that if I started making points, both you and Marci would react to them, and that is not what I wanted yet. I wanted to hear from Meuh, the only person in the thread that I trust atm.

Ahh, I see.