Newbie 1995 - Microscopic Images [Endgame]

[LuckyLuciano]

I would also like to apologize to the town as a whole. I got so focused on my method that I was hurtful to other players in the game, and ultimately if Maduisha doesn't unvote and Hobbes hammers me, it's my fault and not hers that everyone's effort is wasted. I try as a whole to make mafia more welcoming rather than push people away, and I failed at that this game.

[Maduisha]

If it's about what I said last day phase, I'm sorry. If you think I'm scum, and you aren't solely voting me because I was hurtful towards you, then at least give the deceased players the respect of doing their due diligence and level with me for a bit.

I'm sorry, but no. Hunterr thought you were scum. Recti let me hammer D3 because he was counting with me being alive in lylo and voting you. If GL is the remaining scum, then nobody that could be here in my place would have found him. This is not the solve of tunnely and tired Maduisha alone, this is the solve the other people trusted too. If we are wrong and they hate my attitude at the endgame chatter, I'll eat the insults graciously. I just don't have any room in my mind for scum!GL or town!You anymore.

[LuckyLuciano]

Even if Maduisha is upset at me, I'm still going to try my best to win this game. As such, I'm going to take a step away from my solve.

@Maduisha, the most critical element of my solve right now is here:

Atarashi Hajimari [0]:
Maduisha [1]: Karnage
Knightmare491 [2]: Atarashi Hajimari, Lucky
LuckyLuciano [0]:
Clidd [4]: Knightmare491, GuiltyLion, Klick, Rectiplanes
Rectiplanes [1]: Clidd
GuiltyLion [0]:
Klick [0]:
Karnage [0]:

Not Voting [1]: Maduisha

Look at the Clidd wagon. Note that Karnage moves to Klidd with his fake hammer. At this point in the game there are 7 townies alive, 6 of them being not!Clidd. I defended Clidd. From my perspective, there's no way both mafia sat out of Clidd's wagon, I defended him, and every remaining townie voted Clidd. From your perspective, do you see an all-town Clidd wagon with a mafia member defending him?

[LuckyLuciano]

Hunterr didn't even read the game. Recti was certain Hunterr was scum. He even said in his post that today wouldn't come. Well it has.

[LuckyLuciano]

Clidd thought we were both town. Knightmare thought we were both town. Do their opinions not matter?

[Maduisha]

I already explained why scum!LuckyLuciano cannot vote Clidd in that situation without throwing all his credibility through the window. Look, I don't have the energy for this.

[LuckyLuciano]

Sure, but how do you suppose a 5-town wagon builds up on town if mafia has no role in building it?

[LuckyLuciano]

If you are scum, props to you. At this point in my solve I'm utterly convinced you are town and if you won't hear me out, there's no reason for me to put any more effort into the solve. I'm tempted to self-hammer because I'm certain Hobbes is scum, but that would be disrespectful to town!Hobbes to take away his first real opportunity to play the game.

[Maduisha]

It sure can happen, a wagon building without scum. Also, it's nice how you were not paying attention to that when accusing me (being that I didn't participate in Clidd's wagon either) but it's only important now that you want to sway me to vote Lion. No.

This is my last post until Lion is back. I will certainly not unvote. Bye.

[LuckyLuciano]

I guess then I should call it a night. It's nearly 4am here. This game has made me genuinely sad.

[LuckyLuciano]

I guess then I should call it a night. It's nearly 4am here. This game has made me genuinely sad.

Fuck that. I'm not giving up just because Maduisha is. I'm going to spend the entire night townspewing, and if she still leaves her vote on me, so be it. But I'm not going down without doing everything in my power to win the game for the town.

[LuckyLuciano]

Before I start though, I really, really don't want Maduisha to quit mafia if we lose here. I'm C&Ping this from my solve:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11669884
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11669908
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11669912
- It’s nice to know that I’m not the only one to see Maduisha’s potential.

I really do think you are going to be a great mafia player and don't want you to blame yourself if we lose. It's more my fault than yours.

[LuckyLuciano]

Honestly, I said I'd sheep papa Rectiplanes to avoid my paranoia from consuming me, but I really want to lynch LuckyLuciano first, for the following reasons:

First and most strongly, for obvious associatives with Atarashi Hajimari:

a) Called him town-core when talking about hypothetical behavior of the mafia, when he was the only living player that townread AH's slot. While calling him towncore, he insisted Klick died because mafia tried not to shoot in the range of Maduisha-LuckyLuciano-Atarashi as if to explain why they're both alive, while lumping themselves with me, the person that claimed VT and was "softing PR" according to him. In other words, self-proclaiming town core and arguing mafia was shooting outside to avoid PRs blocking the NK.

I was wrong, why is that a sin? You have been wrong this game too, that doesn't make you mafia. "Papa Recti" has been as wrong as anybody else. When it became obvious Atari was mafia, I changed my views.

That's natural.

b) This whole interaction exists and feels scummy now in retrospect, knowing the truth about AH:

Spoiler:

Took a nap, just got back. The pressure on Karnage is juicy because that is exactly what I wanted to talk to Atari about.

You rang?

While I catch up, Atari, do you remember the thing I did in transformers mafia? Don't mention it here, just let me know if you remember it. If you need a refresher, you commented on it specifically in endgame. You should go reread your comment from there, it would help.

While I catch up, Atari, do you remember the thing I did in transformers mafia? Don't mention it here, just let me know if you remember it. If you need a refresher, you commented on it specifically in endgame. You should go reread your comment from there, it would help.

grumble grumble

Making me go look up ancient shitty games on my day off

grumble grumble

Just skip to the endgame. You have a very acute and relevant observation there. And that game was far from shitty, it was my most memorable town play of all time.

Okay I'm pretty sure I know which comment you're talking about.

Okay I'm pretty sure I know which comment you're talking about.

Would your description of my play in that game explain why you locktowned Maduisha when you did?

Okay I'm pretty sure I know which comment you're talking about.

Would your description of my play in that game explain why you locktowned Maduisha when you did?

Pretty much, yeah.

The reason why I find it scummy is that the communication feels prepared to me. They're talking about pretty specific stuff, and AH appears exactly when LL "needs" him. They already stated that they're friends and stuff, so I imagine that if LL is scum and I'm not imagining things, they did it counting with that as explanation for the smooth communication and such.

Think about how much dissonance is in this read. Your entire read on me is basically that Zaradi and I have been openwolfing all game. I know you don't want to read meta, but I can link you to a post listing my first 34 games on my old site.

Never have I openwolfed as mafia. I was the most prolific busser on our old site.

I can link to a game where a teammate thought I didn't need to bus him so he outed the entire mafia.

c) And this point being my second biggest paranoia about LL: He was using the stuff from point b) to set me up to claim PR or paint me as scum if I claimed VT. When he made his post, the whole narrative felt like he was sure I was

PR or scum

(comments inside as well):

Spoiler:

Alright, this is going to require a long post, so give me time. The short version is, I'm vanilla townie, Maduisha is the other TPR. If she's not TPR she's either scum or made a horrible misplay as town.

Notice how the first part of the post calls me a TPR as the most likely scenario in his head. That means to me he wanted to out the second PR. Then the last sentence of this post lists literally every possibility for me to be, which is to say, it makes no sense as it gives no information. Why would he list all of that? It's obvious that I can only be TPR, scum, or VT. The thing that comes to mind is likelyhood of outcomes in his mind, in other words... that he believes I'm most likely TPR, if not, scum. And lastly, there's the possbility of me actually being VT in his mind.

You remind me of myself when I first started playing mafia. I was known for fake claiming as town. Look at the post I linked from my old site earlier, where Zaradi himself (Atari) says not to believe the first 2 things I claim. In that very game I fake claimed, as town, a convoluted JOAT role that had a hidden mass lie-detector ability, and the fake claim was so believable that I outed the entire mafia. The way I read your play is naive town trying to do a thing, but not looking ahead to the consequences of their actions.

13 I immediately had a hunch that Maduisha was TPR. In my experience, she made a pretty common attempt to soft TPR. This is why I immediately call her part of the towncore in 14.

39 I throw a vote on her and declare that it's out of RVS to see if anyone bites. Somewhere early on I felt if not Maduisha TPR then maybe Maduisha + Guilty is the scumteam. I tried to prompt Guilty to comment on Maduisha in 83 but it didn't work. In 94 I stretched her reaction to the joke as far as possible to see if anyone would jump on the wagon. I figured if she's town then

some

scum has to take the bait eventually. Knightmare's 98 felt heavily as if he was trying to prod me into leading a stronger push on Maduisha, hence my focus on him for most of day 1.

103 through the Maduisha VT claim I'm trying to sort her still. If I can pin her as TPR I can play around her and start building a towncore. The VT claim comes in 114. I think again, she makes a common move for new players who roll TPR, but I decide to commit to the assumption that she is TPR until given a great reason not to because of her emphasis on VT being boring in her claim and its contrast to her feeling that she would have fun in 13. I thought both the tone and the claim itself indicate TPR. Atarashi caught on as well in 118. This is the first major part of my townread for him. I don't think scum!Atarashi puts this out there knowing that it indicates he's picked up on a softclaim. Scum!Atarashi is more likely to keep the info to himself and roleblock/NK Maduisha. I don't want to unvote right away because I don't want to give away Maduisha by also indicating that I've picked up on it, but I do try to change the topic in 120. Maduisha's response in 126 to my prior inquiry is perfectly timed because it gives me a reason to unvote other than her claim in 128. This demarcates the point in which I switch from trying to sort Maduisha to trying to help refine her reads so that I can work with her to solve the game.

147 is made in reference to the first line of 145, which implies that he knows that the setup is not C (either because there is a role cop or because their is a role blocker; we know now that it's setup B) and if trying to pin down the exact setup via reactions from other players.

237 is an important point in the game for me. In the game I had played with Karnage before, he was actively looking for TPR as town. The fact that the top of his lynch wagon was the player who seemingly softed a TPR and the two players who obviously saw it as a soft immediately pinged my radar. I tried to interact with his reads as indirectly as possible to parse if they were scum motivated or if they were biased by him being busy IRL. I tried to give him the out to say that he was busy IRL (he indicated earlier that the transition to online teaching was time consuming) in 239 but he never did, and he even responded in 240 that he wanted to do better here than in our previous game. Note, he did successfully find the one of the TPR as town on day 1, he simply got the role itself wrong. I had a hard time reconciling him trying harder in this game than that one, yet not seeing how Maduisha could be softing, and Atari seeing the soft as well was what I used as a sort of sanity-check. In other words, it was Atari also seeing the soft that kept me from simply saying, "maybe I'm crazy and seeing something that isn't there."

285 and 288 I'm simultaneously trying to refine Maduisha's read on me while also giving Karnage something to react to so I can continue to sort him. He never reacted to these posts, unfortunately. 289 is in response to Hobbes' 284. I'm not quite sure if he is also in on the potential soft, or if I'm wrong about Maduisha and it's Hobbes + Maduisha. I'm still committed at this point to operating under the assumption that Maduisha is TPR, if I'm wrong I can always re-sort her later. I try to align my lynch pool with Hobbes to see if he narrows his pool down to match mine, which would be opportunistic and indicate scum!Hobbes.

298. I'm trying really hard to get Maduisha see that I am town so that we can work together, and her "everything is always null" approach to the game starts to frustrate me around here.

309 I'm really upset that only got one laugh.

Soon we get to the point where Clidd and Recti replace in, and I'm really not feeling motivated at that point to sort their BS argument and try to push a Knightmare lynch instead. The day, in my opinion, had already gone on for too long and was well into the more-harm-than-good phase of day one.

364 I soft TPR to redirect role blocks / night kills from Maduisha to me. I'm hoping here if there is a protective role they see this and jump on me to possibly stop a night kill night 1.

369 I started doubting here whether I should be playing for the team or playing for myself. I literally just put myself in jeopardy to protect Maduisha and her blindness (assuming she is actually TPR) to what I'm trying to do for her makes me feel that I am placing all my eggs in her basket when perhaps I shouldn't be.

441 I soft TPR again, which I really didn't want to do because other people would start picking up on it (see: Recti), to try to get Maduisha to see my angle on the game. In retrospect it was a mistake because she clearly isn't looking for things like softs. That much becomes clear in 443 when she questions what it means to repeatedly say I won't be lynched this game. At that point I think it's best to drop the conversation to avoid revealing too much (much like when I redirected convo from her claim earlier), and purposely let my frustraton come out in 444 so that I would have an excuse in 445 to not post until people came along and changed the topic. The timestamp shows a minute difference but the second post was literally made within seconds of the first because it was planned before I even submitted 444.

456 pings me, but I'm not sure if it's because a voice of reason has arrived or if Karnage is literally memeing my approach to the game. 460 makes me feel like his effort in this game is far off from his effort in our last game, despite him saying earlier that he wanted to do better this game than last. In 462 I decide to confirm that Atari and I are on the same page and to push Karnage. I feel pretty strongly here that he's either mafia, or he's town and checked out a long time ago (which happens pretty often when you refuse to end day 1 in a timely manner). I took a nap here and things got spicy while I was gone with the fake hammer. I regret hammering Karnage instead of defending him, as I was struggling to find scum motive for fake hammering. However, I understand still why I hammered when I did. The assumption that I'm operating on is that Karnage possesses a certain skill level, as proven by my past experience with him. I had to hedge between him not giving a flying fuck this game, and him being mafia. If he's mafia, he picked up on the Maduisha soft as well, and knows that both Atari and I have picked up on the soft. That's dangerous information for the mafia to have. I also don't want to put my cards on the table because if I'm wrong, and he's town, I cause a mislynch and neuter a TPR night 1. So when the opportunity arose to hammer Karnage without having to reveal anything, I had to take it. If I let him claim, and he's town vanilla, he's getting lynched anyway and nothing changes. If I let him claim and he's either TPR or scum, he's claiming TPR (because scum!Karnage knows what's going on with the Maduisha soft and my soft), and the following chaos of sorting out the game will likely lead to a mass claim day 1 which is bad for the town. So I don't think a TPR claim necessarily saves him from being lynched, in fact I don't think it's likely. So I hedged my bets and hammered Karnage. If I gave it more time I think maybe I would have ended up defending him, but I also knew time was of the essence and was afraid of an unvote allowing scum!Karnage to fake claim TPR.

Onto the post I was referencing with Atari. http://www.debate.org/forums/games/topi ... 1/#1655842. One of Atari's past usernames is Zaradi, and one of my past usernames is Mestari. We used that post as a baseline to determine that we both thought Maduisha had lied about being VT, and that I was lying about softing a TPR. It's necessary to bring this up, and I ask Atari for permission to in 588 because in 476 he indicates that he knows that I'm softing and I realize he will hard tunnel me once I reveal that my soft was a gambit to protect Maduisha. It's important to note 482 because it is the second part of my townread on Atari.

This post indicates that he is already aware of my soft and either thinks that Maduisha and I are both TPR, in which case scum!Atari hides the info and kills us both at night, or that he knows my soft is a lie and scum!Atari would again hide the info so that he can later exploit it when it becomes obvious that my soft is a lie.

So there's a breakdown of my entire day one strategy.

Here he explains his behavior D1, which made sense to me at the time. However, the part I bolded and other small bits about AH understanding the meaning of all the things he did, makes me think they're working together. The bolded part in particular feels like he's trying to clear AH from being scum, "because he as scum would hide the information". In which world town!Lucky tries to communicate with scum!Atarashi and Atarashi doesn't follow his game? If he doesn't and "hides the information", then town!LL knows for a fact he's scum. In other worlds, I don't believe LL actually believes this action from AH is a motive to TR AH.[/spoiler]

Not exactly. If he hides the information, I don't know whether or not he's picked up on the soft. I don't remember him being particularly apt at picking up softs, although I'd reckon players from my site are better, on balance, at picking up softs than players here because every game was role madness. It is

because

he indicated that he picked up on the soft that I can make a read on it. Obviously my read was wrong. I admit that I was influenced too much by being friends with Zaradi outside the game to the point where

I wanted him to be town

, and I wanted, if he was mafia, to catch him at LYLO rather than earlier. I didn't want to scumread him out of paranoia and spend the entire game assuming he was pulling a fast one on me,

because he's my friend.

You are going to have to accept that I played suboptimally around Zaradi, and my reads reflect that.

However, for a player that spoke in this fashion about his idea of my intentions behind my actions meaning I'm TPR, if not, then scum, and if not, then actually VT, he gave up on all of that and accepted my second claim as VT right after his wall-post explanation. What reason do I draw from that? This is the reason he gives for it:

Spoiler:

@Maduisha, because you said that you claimed VT to throw off scum and make them think you were a TPR. A scum-directed mindset could explain why you couldn't see that I was trying to play around you day one, and why you didn't trust me (you expected scum to pick up on the soft but not town). I also remember glimpsing over something you said either in an endgame or dead PT about how maybe you shouldn't have done a role claim gambit, and need to look back into it in detail, but iirc there's precedent for you doing this before. If you're scum, I think we solve you by endgame anyway through PoE at this point. I'd rather lynch people who you have scum equity with than lynch you directly.

He basically buys my claim now at face value

despite

explaining in detail I'm scummier than town according to him if I'm not a PR. I see two potential ulterior motives here: 1) PR fishing. Plain and simple. The whole thing felt like "claim your role or you're scum". 2) Setting me up as lynch for later phases in the game. Once he has estabilished the "high" probability of me being scum, he moves onto other slots instead of voting and pushing me. This feels like he wanted to save me as a conflictive slot for lylo (if it came to that) and prefers moving onto other people whose lynch cannot possibly cause a chain-lynch that ends in his death when they flip town.

I

never

said you are scummier than town if you are not a TPR. I said that I was operating under the assumption that you were TPR, scum, or you made a misplay as VT. The distinction is important. If I think you don't make that misplay as VT, then you have to be scum. However, I do think you make that misplay as VT. I think that because I made similar misplays as town when I was new. I've further explained this above. The essence is, you play makes sense from naive town that thinks they are making a good play to outwit the mafia if they pick up on your soft, but you failed to look at the larger picture of how town can pick up on your soft and be misled as well.

d) And this would be the primary reason why I'm paranoid as hell lately: Knightmare reveals AH is scum by sacrificing himself. What is Lucky's reaction to it? Surprise that his TR "towncore" slot is scum? No, absolutely not. He starts making a theory in which I, specifically, am scum for reasons entirely based on baseless especulation of AH playing 4D chess, and not association as it should naturally happen. Remember that stuff about scum!Atarashi not being possible because he'd give him away? It's gone, he doesn't recognize it anymore. He now builds a theory in which AH was not collaborating with him when they did that weird communication thingy from point b) but rather proposes he is almost reading his mind because of the implied information in his messages and used it as mafia. And that, somehow, makes AH my partner automatically. He proposes AH directed my VT claim and that it was not genuinely from me. How does he do this jump in logic? Only god knows. Posts for reference (comments inside again):

Spoiler:

Yeah, you are right. In that case, why not have the role cop carry out both actions. The only thing that makes sense in that case is

if Atari knows Maduisha isn't a TPR because she's scum with him

and therefore

he thinks I'm TPR

and

if I'm jailkeeper

I might be on Maduisha, therefore they risk losing their kill if she carries it out. Doesn't that make a lot of sense? A lot of what's making it hard to think right now is deciding how likely Atari thinks it is that I re-evaluate his slot at LYLO. I pretty much said I would when I made the reads list putting him and Karnage about Recti/Clidd yet said that I would be re-sorting him and Karnage first. If he thinks I look at his slot again at LYLO, which if he remembers my play from years ago well enough, he knows I would, I think it makes a lot of sense to night kill me even though I hard townread him because Maduisha doesn't seem to be ever protecting me night 1, and I'm never voting Maduisha at that point. I don't know if any of this makes any sense, reading it back it doesn't even really make sense to me. I'm probably going to take a shower and a bit of a break and try to come back with a clear mind.

Notice the parts I bolded. He's assuming three things: 1) Atarashi and I are scum. 2) Atarashi picked up on his "soft claims"

and believes them

. 3) Atarashi and scum!Maduisha play the NK entirely around assumption 2, with the added assumption that mafia is also extremely paranoid of a jailkeeper, when they did not have enough information to determine that there's high likelyhood of a jailkeeper existing, and also

assuming a jailkeeper would soft PR D1 in any universe

, which is absolutely ridiculous, because on the chance the mafia picks up the soft, such a powerful role is automatically gone, since it cannot protect itself. Also note that a theory in which Atarashi and I are scum completely invalidates Lucky's assumption of mafia "shooting outside the range of Maduisha-LL-Atarashi" as he said previously, because we're both scum in his mind. If all the bold assumptions he made are true,

why is LuckyLuciano alive during D2?

If I were scum and Atarashi picked up and believed his softs, as he said, doesn't that mean Atarashi believes the jailkeeper is a free kill, essentially? Why did Klick die, then? It makes no sense.

Why are you allowed to be paranoid, yet I'm not? Of course when it's revealed that Zaradi is scum I start to believe that I've been getting played like a fiddle the entire time. Of course my natural reaction is to think about all the ways he could have been exploiting my play. Notice how when I gave time for my paranoia to settle down, I went back to townreading you.

I don't think I've ever been in a situation for Atari to tell me what to do as scum, especially because I was far more known for my scum play than my town play, (part of why I try to defer to other players as town, and why my biggest weakness is still being pocketed - which Atari also knows and is why he was my first spot to re-evaluate if it came down to LYLO). I think it's possible, however, that this is Maduisha's first scum game and he told her if she made that claim I would notice it and townread her. It's also possible though that he and I both misread her as softing simultaneously because we came from the same environment and I felt he was town because we were on the same wavelength, all without him planning it. Short of thinking that I might jailkeep the role cop, however, why not have the role cop carry out the night kill as well? I'm having a hard time getting around that.

The first part is an assumption that Atarashi must have commanded his partner in some way, which I don't really understand why he makes.

The second part is what interests me, though; he says AH might have planned to "make him TR me" by planning my VT claim. I want to bring attention to the following points about this assumption on his part:

- It's once again an egocentric assumption. He is constantly assuming mafia plays around him, for some reason.
--

Zaradi and I have years of history, if he's mafia, of course my paranoia will make me think he would play around me

- He is assuming my claim was not genuine, therefore should be taking away the reason he had to trust me in point C, yet he isn't voting me now.
--

Again, you are attacking me at the point where I am most paranoid. Again, why are you allowed to be paranoid if I'm not?

- He says he does not understand why the same mafia member didn't carry out both night actions, again assuming that AH bought his softing and was paranoid of him being jailkeeper, specifically.
--

This is why I asked Hobbes today about his experience with the setup. Investigative roles often target inactive players because they don't have a good read on them. With Hobbes being the Role Cop, if he gets investigated NP1 and Zaradi carries out the NK, then Hobbes is not immediately at risk of being lynched. The tracker setups include a friendly neighbor and a doctor. Both roles are worth preserving as town, so trackers may not out their results, and even if they do it will require both TPR to out themselves in order to lynch Hobbes. With his experience both in mafia as a whole, and with the setup, I find this a more convincing explanation as to why Zaradi carried out the kill.

In short, I think he's building this whole argument as a "reason why Atarashi would leave Lucky alive", without addressing why would mafia leave a pressumed jailkeeper alive while at the same time making the constant assumption that they believe him to be a jailkeeper. I'd say he does this for convenience of his narrative.[/spoiler]

Again, paranoia. You pick the worst point in the game to try to nitpick my reasoning. It's the most likely time for my reads to be made from an unstable foundation,

because the foundation I had been building my reads upon prior to that point had just been ripped out from under me.

Secondary reasons why I find Lucky scummy. They're all things I pointed out in the past, but still:

1) Tried to imply lurking slots are scummy and tried to "correct" Karnage's reads which included him and AH in the scumpool. Arguing in favor of this while being a high activity slot yourself is highly suspicious, I'd say.

This has been answered way back when. If you still want to talk about it, let me know, but unless you indicate that you do I'm devoting my effort elsewhere. I have limited time before Hobbes wakes up and hammers.

2) The whole stuff about painting himself as the only possible scum partner for Clidd. I won't describe it in detail again, I think I have expressed my concern about it long and extensively. Yes, I am aware he only implied the alignment link flowing one way, still I think it was some sort of attempt at manipulation of perspective if Clidd were to be lynched and flip town. Extreme tinfoil hat, I know, but I am adamant about this being scummy. There's no reason to assume "Clidd is town because LuckyLuciano is town". He kept going about how only he could be Clidd's partner before the Atarashi reveal, but there are absolutely no reasons to exclude everyone but him. Which makes me believe he had ulterior motives to make that affirmation over and over.

I don't see how you know this is tinfoil hat, yet you insist that it's scummy. Again though, it's been addressed, and I'm moving on from it unless you want me to talk about it again.

pedit: I don't know why my letters turned tiny and gold, but I don't really have time to fix it.

[LuckyLuciano]

@Maduisha, look back at Hobbes' entrance today. He's very clearly leaning you. If I'm scum, I know you are going to gun for me today and you are the easier target for a mislynch than him. If I see Hobbes active already, and it's earlier than I'd expect you to be awake given your timezone, it's easy for me to start watering his preexisting seeds of doubt. Look back to 1992 and your mafia PT. Look at how you approached LYLO, how certain players would never see you as town. You had the luxury of killing them off, scum!Lucky can't really kill town!Maduisha last night, but still, does it make sense for me to be prying info from Hobbes if I'm scum and I know the path to victory is through mislynching you? You even said yourself that you made yourself the second scummiest player after hunterr, yet not only did I not push him in your direction,

despite the fact that he's already looking towards you

, but I was still legitimately scumhunting him, and even know I've chosen to push him knowing that you are probably never going to unvote me. That means that my only way to win as scum is to push you,

but I refuse to.

[LuckyLuciano]

If I'm scum, my entire strategy this game is to think of all possible actions, and to take the worst, at every turn. You can only say that I'm doing this intentionally as scum to look town for so long before you take a step back and realize, maybe you're wrong. Are you really going to wait until endgame to take that step back when you have the opportunity to now?

[LuckyLuciano]

- It's once again an egocentric assumption. He is constantly assuming mafia plays around him, for some reason.

Come to think of this, shouldn't this be a townslip for you?

If I'm mafia, I know the mafia isn't playing around me.

Either you think I was being egocentric, in which case you should see I am town, or you think I was faking it, in which case you need to try to come up with a motive for why I make that play as scum.

[LuckyLuciano]

If you are still around can you at least acknowledge that you are still here? I'm trying my hardest this game, it would be nice to know that I am not pulling an all nighter talking to somebody that isn't even here.

[LuckyLuciano]

You seem to put a lot of trust into Recti's reads, so I guess my next step is to tear down Recti's reliability. Sorry in advance Recti, but you were way off mark this game.

361 is Recti's case against me. It's broken down into three parts:

(A) I tried to pocket Maduisha.

- Prior to Maduisha's claim, I was pushing Maduisha. That's the opposite of pocketing. Post-claim, I have reason as town to think that she is town. Even if there's scum-motive to pocket Maduisha here, it's non-unique when there is also town-motive, and therefore is NAI without further context.

(B) That I imply there is a time to role fish. I responded to this earlier, let me know if you need me to find it.

(C) I change tone when Clidd joins the game, therefore I am scum with Clidd. Clidd flipped town. We know now that this point is completely incorrect.

His case really is that weak.

This is why I hate casing. This is why I hate day one associative reads.

Part of me wishes I addressed this earlier because I could have cleared up how much this case sucks, but part of me feels justified ignoring it, because

this case fucking sucks.

[LuckyLuciano]

Keep in mind how horrible initiating the 1v1 was on Recti's part. I called out it being a bad play, and realized it's a bad play that town makes, and correctly put townreads on both Clidd and Recti for it. This is another way Recti pushed the town in the wrong direction. I take partial blame here, because I decided that I couldn't be the only person right about Clidd and decided to go with the team and agreed he's scum. I should not have acquiesced to an incorrect push made for all the wrong reasons. For that alone, if we lose, this game is on me. Granted, Hunterr didn't even try to solve the game and tied my hands, but that's simply why I'm sorry to Clidd and not sorry to Hunterr, although I do appreciate him replacing in.

I hope you see now why I didn't want to be lynched before Clidd. I went with the town's consensus because I convinced myself that I wasn't good enough to be the only person correct about Clidd and even as we agreed to lynch Hunterr, even after I acquiesced, I had my reservations and was preparing for us to be wrong, because deep down inside I did think he was town. Is it my fault for not speaking up, yes? I held my tongue because when I had the urge to continue defending him Day Two I felt like a hypocrite for pushing teamplay when I was clearly going against every other player in the game, let alone the entire town. That's my fault for not trusting myself and putting the game in other players' hands. For that reason alone, if town loses it's on me, and not you.

[LuckyLuciano]

Moving on to Recti's case on Clidd:

All right, it's time for a wall-o-text on

Clidd

, and why I feel the way I do about his slot:

188, part 1:

It's clear, at *this* point, that everyone is still in complete RVS mode. And not just any RVS phase but one on

April 1st

. Clidd's attempt to read anything into this is just plain wrong (but also NAI in and of itself).

What in the actual fuck? Does this guy really think people are playing Aprils Fools jokes in mafia games? YOU ARE SHEEPING THIS SHIT? Like, I'm sorry Recti, but I have to illustrate how poorly you have played this game in order to open Maduisha's eyes. I really do like you approach to the game and your attempt to extract data in order to make objective reads, and I think that approach has merits once you fine-tune the formula, but I have to be honest here, and this game was not good for you.

188, part 2:

Karnage's vote here makes a reasonable amount of sense if you assume he wants to get out of RVS, even if it's at his expense. On the other hand, Clidd's analysis of it: "It is almost like saying that there were reasons to vote on you, or perhaps the fact that Maduisha left the wagon early was interpreted as a potential attempt to evade responsibility for a flip that Scum!Maduisha would have known would be town beforehand." <-- this seems like saying "Either Karnage believed Maduisha might be scum or Maduisha believed Karnage might be scum" which is as close to tautology as you can get. This is does not feel like a useful read at all. Later in this post, of course, Clidd puts Karnage in null and Maduisha in his townread, which makes this comment seem even more pointless; and stuff that is meaningless but feels like contributing is of course catnip to scum, so this (in retrospect) feels mildly scummy on Clidd's part.[/quote]

And this is why I say that you need to be looking to townread people and not reasons to scumread them. If Recti didn't have such a hard-on for catching scum and actually tried to build a town block this null read would be left at null. Instead he is focused on catching scum, therefore his null reads become scum leans.

Maduisha and Lucianio's posts in the 25-40 range are atypical? No kidding. Clidd's analysis here feels particularly strange - not in any way I can really put a finger on as scum or town, just weird. Afterwards he does say that SvS theater is unlikely here, and the more I've looked at this the more I agree with it. He does not, however, explore the possibilities of TvS vs TvT. I don't like that; it's incomplete, especially as it's such a strange set of interactions.

Like, look at how bad this is, knowing Clidd is town. He's casing Clidd, because he thinks Clidd is scum. He is putting together the facts after making his conclusion. This is a classic example of making the facts fit the read rather than catering the read to the facts.

He literally agrees with Clidd, and proceeds to scumread him.

188, part 3

Clidd mashes up stuff here, possibly because he was tired (I agree with Atarashi that this post of Clidd's had that air about it). He claims Knight's vote at 62 is potentially scummy, when Knight clearly wants to get in on the RVS fun that, in his stated opinion, is still going on, and votes with the most transparently jokey, stupid reasoning for an RVS vote possible: because he's GUILTY-Lion. How, exactly, something so transparently just a lame joke is scummy is not explained; it's just left there as a point of suspicion. Remember, Clidd has already been in the game a while at this point and is catching up; he's had time to formulate a strategy. Clidd later claims that 'you don't vote players making serious reads at this point', but I think that Knight's post at 62 is prima facie silliness and needs no further explanation. I think it's part of a greater plan to set in motion a later Knightmare mislynch.

How tinfoil can you get? He agrees that Clidd is likely tired at this point in the post. Then he ignores it and scumreads Clidd for not completely explaining himself, which in-itself is explained by Clidd being tired. How can you sheep somebody that repeatedly gives you reasons not to scumread Clidd, or to even townread Clidd, and then uses all of those reasons to prove Clidd is scum?

188, part 4

For this page I had notes on GuiltyLion (his asking Atarashi to clarify his scumread on LL) and GeorgeBailey (attempt to start wagon analysis). These are interesting enough that I noted them; Clidd just ignores it, instead concentrating on reading LL up and Knight down. This constricted view of reads from this page seems unlike what I would expect of a town-Clidd; I would expect him to be more comprehensive in his reactions to events as they transpired on this page.

Combination of willfully ignoring the fact that he just agreed that Clidd is tired at this point in the post, and deciding that somebody is scum for not seeing the game the way he sees it. Do I even need to keep elaborating how bad Recti's attempts to case have been? I hope when he reads this over he realizes why casing is bad and never partakes in it again.

188, part 5:

This whole section is Lucky trying to be friendly to Maduisha - in my interpretation. Very pockety. He declares 114 to be 'ironic', which is an odd take on someone doing the equivalent of setting fire to a coffee table out of boredom in order to spur some conversation. Atarashi's read of Maduisha as locktown - I agree with Clidd, it feels ridiculous. I read it more against Atarashi than Clidd did, however.

This point isn't even an argument against Clidd. It's a reiteration of his case against me, and he thinks that Clidd is scum because he thinks that I am scum. Oh wait, he also thinks Atari is scum, which makes both parts of his associative reads misfounded but his ego is too fucking big to see that. Like, I'm sorry Recti. I really don't enjoy doing this to you, but I also know how hard you tried this game and I can't let your efforts go to waste because Maduisha is sheeping you by making assumptions about who you would lynch in event that Clidd was town. This is especially the case because she's making these logical leaps on your behalf despite the fact that you very clearly stated you thought that game would end with a hunterr lynch and therefore hadn't considered who you would lynch today. I hope you don't take this personally, I do this out of respect for you as a player (I want to see you improve) and out of respect for your effort towards the game.

188, part 6:

The interesting thing here is that Maduisha explicitly says she has no reads other than Lucky and might be idiot-town playing to be pocket bait and Clidd later townreads her. Not even in his large nullpile, townread. What?

Instead of just calling everything bad, which I think is taking on poor taste at this point, I'm going to start illustrating what you could have done instead of casing and forcing yourself into a confirmation bias thought bubble. If you don't understand why Clidd makes this read, why don't you ask him about it instead of assuming it's scum-motivated because you don't understand him? Is everyone who thinks differently than you scum? Honestly, I feel like I've made my point and don't want to beat a dead horse. If there's anything specific Maduisha wants me to address that I haven't already, I will, but I don't feel comfortable continuing to break down Recti any more than I already have.

188, part 7:

Quoted and posted, with no reads given by Clidd. Nor have any subsequently been given. We can excuse this as Clidd seemed to just move on and continue on from where discussion on those points had evolved while he was asleep.

Post 223:

The quote from Maduisha (#191) has much the same feeling I got reading 188: that this was somehow backwards from the normal Clidd reasoning. It just did not feel real.

Clidd excuses this as being initial and undeveloped observations. Amusingly enough, I actually accept this as a plausible reason. However, no great development comes of these reads later! It feels (in retrospect) like Clidd keeping his options open.

Part 2, responding to Maduisha #195, is more interesting because he says:

If Town-Clidd naturally plays as Town-Clidd (a tautology, therefore true)
Then Scum-Clidd tries to imitate Town-Clidd (you would expect this, almost certainly true)
It is impossible to distinguish whether you are dealing with Town-Clidd or Scum-Clidd.

I like this wonderfully old fashioned logical proposition. It is the classic if-then. The first part is definitionally true. It is extraordinarily unlikely Clidd would try to play differently as scum, so the second part is true. Therefore, his conclusion is correct, right?

Wrong - the argument is valid but not correct, because of the freight being handled by the word 'tries'. Maduisha's argument here is that Clidd feels like he is trying to imitate Town-Clidd but is failing. I agree. This is exactly the sense I got of 188.

In the next section, Maduisha's #196 is indeed self-answering: Clidd is hewing to his standard of posting this sort of read, but he is also not living up to his usual standards as perceived by other players, which is exactly what is pinging suspicions.

Post 224:

Clidd reads Knightmare here. Clidd reads Knightmare as scum for the following reasons:

(1) Vote on GuiltyLion
(2) Knightmare reacing to Maduisha's scumslip. But Knightmare is not the one to posit the scumslip - Lucky is, in post #94. Knightmare is trying the logic of the argument on for size. Lucky then will claim that Knightmare took what he pointed out even more seriously than Lucky did. But this is belied by his actual actions, and the questioning stance he took towards the read (question marks).

He then comments on Maduisha's strange claim, seeing it as stemming from dissatisfaction (boredom, in my mind, but whatever). This is about the only thing I agree with him about, and yet it's sufficiently strange and scummy taken on its own - or should appear so - that it should arose some comment beyond this, even just something like "It's sufficiently unusual and out of place that Knightmare trying to analyze it feels reasonable for him to do" or whatever.

Post 225:

It's interesting that Clidd seems mildly wary of Karnage - is this why you are leaving him in the nullpile, despite not liking his readlist at all?

Post 260:

I actually agree with this post, and Lucky's lack of probing at Karnage's very different readlist is intriguing and feels scummy.

Post 263:

Putting this in on the off chance of Town-Clidd: I perceive that he has the four of you as 'equal' in a mild townlean pile that he cannot bother to sort out at this point.

Post #338 feels strongly like a concession that he knows I'll flip green, and, in that light, has inherent scumfeel to it.

If Scum-Clidd, then his plan seems fairly simple: mislynch Knightmare, which sets up a bus of LuckyLuciano, and Clidd probably feels confident he can finagle two mislynches out of town past that point with that much towncred. He certainly believes this possibility in 338, saying he's confident of his ability to go 1 vs 4! Which would be exactly the situation he would be in, after a Day2 Lucky bussing, coincidentally enough...

I think I will continue on to Atarashi tomorrow or (if workload is heavy and I'm wiped out) Tuesday.[/quote]

[LuckyLuciano]

It's after 5am. There's no sign that Maduisha is still here. I'm out of energy. I'm at least proud of myself for not giving up earlier. Sorry town, this one's on me. I'm going to try to sleep now. Hopefully when I wake up Maduisha has unvoted, but I'm expecting an endgame to be posted when I wake up. Good night all.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm awake now. Time to keep fighting for this win.

It sure can happen, a wagon building without scum.

Also, it's nice how you were not paying attention to that when accusing me (being that I didn't participate in Clidd's wagon either) but it's only important now that you want to sway me to vote Lion.

No.

This is my last post until Lion is back. I will certainly not unvote. Bye.

Before this day phase I didn't have Clidd's flip. If he flips red, an all-town wagon makes sense. If he flips green, it doesn't. I change my read once information changed. How do you rationalize holding me accountable for not using information that was revealed

after

Clidd's flip when I questioned your push on me

before

Clidd's flip?

[LuckyLuciano]

I really need you to take a step back from the game, Maduisha, and to give it a second look. The entire town needs you to take a step back and look outside your tunnel, even if just for a little bit.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm still not sure how Maduisha thinks that scum!Lucky ever tries to lynch Hobbes over Maduisha today. Like, on a scale of 1-10, does she rate my scumplay as a 2, maybe a 2.5? Lower even?

@People in the dead PT, am I as obvtown as I think I am, or am I crazy here?

[LuckyLuciano]

Spoiler:

VOTE: Karnage

L-2

U scurred?

VOTE: Karnage

L-2

U scurred?

scared of what?

VOTE: Karnage

L-2

U scurred?

scared of what?

The lolhammer

VOTE: Re

Atarashi I'm having a hard time feeling out whether you actually scumread Lucky or if you're memeing about scumreading him. Why is your vote on him?

VOTE: Re

Atarashi I'm having a hard time feeling out whether you actually scumread Lucky or if you're memeing about scumreading him. Why is your vote on him?

Memeing, for both answers

First set of Hobbes-Atari interactions. They were entirely meaningless and fluff. It should be rather obvious at this point in the game that he doesn't seriously scumread me, but Hobbes needed something to talk about when interacting with his partner. Note that none of this is ever followed up on.