Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:28 am
yes the hammer was wrong yet the game kepth going back to strange i disliked no one trying im not so sure about haschel or hockey anymore i wont be sure untill i know what happen last night.In post 976, Save The Dragons wrote:i like azeru for town i liked his commentary at the end of the day towards cyrus. i like his questioning. i wish he would talk more.
i like luke for town. he's wrong about me. i wish he'd stop talking to cyrus altogether but trying to reason with him seems town to me. i think he's asking good questions.
pav has some iioa posts like his vote tracker but has kept some of his thoughts close to the vest here. of the three i find him the scummiest. I wish he would talk a little more as well, he could be lurky scum unsure of what to say.
it could be something like {Haschel, Hockeyfan} but i'm going to try VOTE: Pavowski for now
I really dont know how I feel about my top scumread voting one of my other scumreads/leans lol, maybe Pav is town because of this? Also @STD, can u explain the haschel/me pairing?In post 976, Save The Dragons wrote:i like azeru for town i liked his commentary at the end of the day towards cyrus. i like his questioning. i wish he would talk more.
i like luke for town. he's wrong about me. i wish he'd stop talking to cyrus altogether but trying to reason with him seems town to me. i think he's asking good questions.
pav has some iioa posts like his vote tracker but has kept some of his thoughts close to the vest here. of the three i find him the scummiest. I wish he would talk a little more as well, he could be lurky scum unsure of what to say.
it could be something like {Haschel, Hockeyfan} but i'm going to try VOTE: Pavowski for now
yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)In post 978, Azeru wrote:I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:
I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.Do notmake any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.
Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.
1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet knowwhothe other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.
2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.
My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?
I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.
Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.
I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.In post 980, HockeyFan wrote:yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)
i dont like it but i will say we vote 8 alive lets put it like this type yes mass or no mass in a singer post alone . reason why i think it is bad is not for me . we had no kill last night becuse doc saved me . or jail keep locked up scum.In post 978, Azeru wrote:I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:
I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.Do notmake any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.
Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.
1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet knowwhothe other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.
2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.
My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?
I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.
Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.
913In post 981, Azeru wrote:I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.In post 980, HockeyFan wrote:yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)
I do not think a FC is in order.In post 978, Azeru wrote:I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:
I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.Do notmake any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.
Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.
1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet knowwhothe other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.
2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.
My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?
I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.
Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.
I don't mean to double post, but I'm thinking about this more and trying to organize thoughts. If #2 is true, why was there no death last night? Either mafia got jailed or their target did, either of which would be a shot in the dark by a jail keeper. Or the mafia targeted a villager who was *also* targeted by the village doc (who didn't bother to save Cyrus despite his claim). That'd be a pretty big coincidence.In post 978, Azeru wrote:I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:
I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.Do notmake any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.
Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.
1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet knowwhothe other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.
2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.
My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?
I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.
Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.
913 looks good for Luke but is not conclusive, unless I'm misunderstanding mechanics.In post 985, HockeyFan wrote:913In post 981, Azeru wrote:I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.In post 980, HockeyFan wrote:yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)
Even if we're assuming that there were no deaths because of a Doctor save, this doesn't mean much. There are two mafia, and either one could be the one to do their night kill. Luke going nowhere doesn't mean he's not mafia. All this means is that he wasn't the one that sent the night kill action.In post 985, HockeyFan wrote:913In post 981, Azeru wrote:I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.In post 980, HockeyFan wrote:yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)
Even if we're assuming that there were no deaths because of a Doctor save, this doesn't mean much. There are two mafia, and either one could be the one to do their night kill. Luke going nowhere doesn't mean he's not mafia. All this means is that he wasn't the one that sent the night kill action.In post 985, HockeyFan wrote:913In post 981, Azeru wrote:I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.In post 980, HockeyFan wrote:yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)
Oh, definitely a Doctor being outed is better for mafia than it is for town, but that's only part of it. It is one of the major downsides that I am taking into consideration. My issue is trusting Cyrus to be involved in "the most likely scenario" when (I think?) a mass claim would shed light onto him. Like yeah yeah occam's razor and all that, but can we really bank on that? We're talking about a player that was completely left out of some read lists day 1 due to being borderline unreadable. My big question is would it or would it not be worth doing to know where Cyrus actually lies.In post 986, Pavowski wrote:What does it benefit the rest of town to know who the doctor is right now? Versus what does it benefit the mafia?
how come Pav voting me did nothing for you but me voting pav makes you think he's town?In post 979, HockeyFan wrote:I really dont know how I feel about my top scumread voting one of my other scumreads/leans lol, maybe Pav is town because of this? Also @STD, can u explain the haschel/me pairing?In post 976, Save The Dragons wrote:i like azeru for town i liked his commentary at the end of the day towards cyrus. i like his questioning. i wish he would talk more.
i like luke for town. he's wrong about me. i wish he'd stop talking to cyrus altogether but trying to reason with him seems town to me. i think he's asking good questions.
pav has some iioa posts like his vote tracker but has kept some of his thoughts close to the vest here. of the three i find him the scummiest. I wish he would talk a little more as well, he could be lurky scum unsure of what to say.
it could be something like {Haschel, Hockeyfan} but i'm going to try VOTE: Pavowski for now
That is correct, yes. Assuming Cyrus isn't pulling a column C gambit, there are two possibilities for Cyrus telling the truth and Luke being scum. Luke is a mafia goon, and his partner did the action and the kill, or Luke preformed the NK and/or the action, but was Jailed.In post 988, Pavowski wrote:913 looks good for Luke but is not conclusive, unless I'm misunderstanding mechanics.In post 985, HockeyFan wrote:913In post 981, Azeru wrote:I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.In post 980, HockeyFan wrote:yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)
Oh i forgot that mafia can choose who visits the kill, sorry im used to the other site I played on where all mafia visit the NK.In post 989, Azeru wrote:Even if we're assuming that there were no deaths because of a Doctor save, this doesn't mean much. There are two mafia, and either one could be the one to do their night kill. Luke going nowhere doesn't mean he's not mafia. All this means is that he wasn't the one that sent the night kill action.In post 985, HockeyFan wrote:913In post 981, Azeru wrote:I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.In post 980, HockeyFan wrote:yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)
Okay, last one. I was going back and forth on the fact that we'd have 2 confirmed town to the 2 confirmed mafia, and wouldn't that be nearly good enough to endgame the mafia on its own? Well, yes, it would. If we know that the Doctor is confirmed and the doc has confirmed Cyrus, then that's 2 to 2 and we only have to confirm 1 more town to make it impossible for mafia to win.In post 978, Azeru wrote:I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:
I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.Do notmake any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.
Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.
1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet knowwhothe other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.
2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.
My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?
I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.
Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.