Big Brother Mafia - Town wins!

[Kast]

/confirm

Hi all, I've read and mostly caught up. Ill have a post with some notes I took while reading through, as well as a vote and thoughts up later today - hold me to that.

But one immediate thought that I don't think was discussed enough is that townies in this game need to be more careful about following others since there is a greater than standard representation of scum voices.

@Mod- do I get to guess at the coup d'etat puzzle?
Is it possible for multiple players to win the coup d'etat?
If so, is there a mechanism to prevent scum teams from sharing answers or otherwise having a big advantage in this (ie. Is each mafia team only allowed to win once...?)

[Kast]

Notes from reading through:
Crazy is not Saber's team due to PoV mixup.

Paltry is very pro-town here; people pushing for sens lynch as punishment for replacing are scummy.

False and scummy strawman. They clearly stated PoV should be used to put a scummy candidate up when there is none, NOT to protect a suspected town nominee

This insistence on HOH following town's will is ridiculous. It's better to shoot 2 random than follow advice from a 6/13 scum distribution (and even better to just put your top suspects on top).

Everyone should share who they suspect and why, but the HOH should not be limited to following any majority (or plurality) decision.

The HOH should consider what everyone says, but it's far more important to see a history of which players are suspicious of whom and willing to vote for whom.

Strong agreement. THIS is the PRIMARY reason for voting the nominees as well. Secondary could be to see stuff from others that you missed and third to check your thoughts against others (both should be lower than your own beliefs).

Strongly dislike how this was handled. Sounds like an attempted appeasement without care for finding scum. I suspect SlySly may be scum. The DC nomination doesn't look like a plausible bus (DC is still potentially scum, but I don't think DC and Sly can be on the same team).

Thoughts on everyone, these will likely develop as I take time to go back and read each player in iso:
Sly- Probscum. The pick of kmd could legitimately be a gut feeling on kmd. The pick of sens could be OMGUS (understandable because sens is a pretty bad player who just likes pushing people's buttons). However, the pick of BV makes no sense as a townie.
AM- Pretty irrational. Has pushed some weak posts that look like feelers for a mislynch.
MF- Neutral. No read on him. Don't remember any noteworthy posts.
Llama- Neutral. Not much read on him. Don't see Sly's argument against him.
KMD- Neutral. He hasn't posted anything that sounds convincing, but his behavior so far seems typical of his behavior in most games and not indicative of any affiliation.
Sir-Neutral. Nothing memorable.
SB-Neutral. Nothing memorable.
pablito-Neutral. Posting reasonably and getting others to post.
Crazy- Neutral/positive. Almost no read on him other than the note above.
saber-Neutral/positive. I get a slightly town read on saber. I don't agree with a lot of what he has posted, but a lot of it sounds genuine and sounds like a townie who is trying.
PE-Pro-town/positive/possible links. I don't agree with the decision to use the PoV right away, however, I understand the usage and it is a playstyle disagreement, not anything affiliation indicative. I don't think there is enough information available on D1 for any townie to accurately determine that two other players are so likely to be town that one of them should be veto'ed. Clearly PE thought differently.

BV- Neutral. Nothing stood out from the previous players, but BV himself seems more interested in actually playing this game. I don't see the reasons behind naming him. Moderately informative lynch since I don't think BV and Sly can be on the same scum team.
Hewitt- Almost everything Sens posted was irrational and/or emotional junk. Nothing scummy per se; unfortunately, Sens stubborn, irrational playstyle is good at hiding anti-town behavior as playstyle-based instead of affiliation-based. Hewitt seems much more interested in actually playing the game and finding scum. In recent posts, Hewitt seemed a bit desperate, however, this is null since townies SHOULD want to avoid being lynched. I think Hewitt would still be an informative lynch, however, the information would not be as specific as with BV.

I'd like to know if either of them will select an HOH who will nominate Sly as one of his two choices.

[Kast]

@Mod-
-I assume that means Zwet did not guess yet and I can still take a guess?

[Kast]

If my post wasn't clear, I think it would be better to lynch BV rather than Hewitt. More importantly, I want to hear from BV and Hewitt, whether either of them intends to choose an HOH who will nominate Sly.

[Kast]

@saberwolf-

From what I see here, he was checking to see if he can still guess at the coup d'etat even if his [player slot] d[id]. I think he let it slip that Zwets is his [player slot],

and that his other scumbuddy hasn't mentioned anything about solving the puzzles. Why else would Zwets be mentioned here?

-748 reinforces my read on saber. Seems like an eager townie; doesn't think everything through, but he's trying.

@Votes-
If I don't hear from BV or Hewitt, I'm going to vote him tomorrow. Consider that a request for more posts and warning to provide last thoughts/defense.

[Kast]

It would have been nice to push BV to say who he will pick as HOH before lynching; now he has no incentive to post anything. But the threat of modkill for non-voters may have killed that. It's not encouraging that multiple players waited until the original deadline to post.

Vote: BV

@BV-
If you're still checking in (and a townie), please select someone who has expressed willingness to nominate Sly as the next HOH.

@Mod-
If BV doesn't select anyone, do you pick the HOH? If so, is it a random selection?

[Kast]

@Sly-
You are parsing wrong.
"please select someone

who has expressed willingness to nominate Sly

as the next HOH."

Also:
-The person selected IS the next HOH.
-Nominations are made BY the HOH not FOR.

[Kast]

Who did BV pick as the next HoH?

[Kast]

@Sly, 777-
-You are an easy target because you made an obvscum move on top of potentially scummy moves.
-DC was town. There's no "connection". You're combining multiple unrelated ideas as though they are related to create confusion. Scummy.
-KMD clearly was not anywhere near being lynched. Your insistence on this sounds like HEAVY distancing. If you flip mafia, KMD is my top candidate for your buddy.

@Llama, 783-
That Sly claims he suspected BV as a result of thinking Llama is scum. The problem with his actions is not that he thought you were scum (townies can hold wrong suspicions), the problem is that he should have nominated you. Instead, he went for what looked like an easier target (lurker/inactive). That was a scummy move.

@Hewitt-
I expect you to follow through on your statement to nominate Sly. Second nomination doesn't matter nearly as much (and I dare scum to PoV Sly).

@Mod-
-Did you randomly select the HoH or did BV submit a choice?
-Do we know the schedule for receiving Coup d'etat Clues? If so, what is the schedule (specifically, do we get to guess each time you reveal a new clue)?
-When you said we can guess once per week, is that real time week or game time week (and is a game day equivalent to a week)?

[Kast]

I also note that Kast has not done much more that zwet to participate and convince us he's not scum either

Wth?

I joined the game on Monday and caught up and filled in my thoughts throughout Monday and Tuesday. Someone's trying for easy targets...

@Paltry/Saber-
Aside from using the PoV prematurely (D1), I don't see the problems that are being raised. Saber clearly allowed the town to mistakenly believe that he had PoV until Paltry publicly revealed it. It never looked like Saber protected himself from a nomination as a result of allowing that confusion to exist, so it really doesn't look like a big issue. It seems like Sly (and possibly his buddies) are trying to use this to distract from the imminent Sly lynch. Let's not let that happen.

@Sly-

If you think the quick and early use of it is suspicious, that would have to make the user and the saved person suspicious.

Fail. The "saved" person only matters if that person was actually saved. KMD was in no danger of being lynched, so he clearly was not saved. The only person who can be considered "saved" is Hewitt. From context, you clearly are NOT referring to Paltry saving Hewitt as a negative or scum indicative event.

[Kast]

I'm not seeing anything new being discussed. It is clear that most people want Sly lynched, and for good reason. Second to that looks like Animorph, but that doesn't even matter because Sly is going to be lynched. People mentioning "what if Sly gets veto'd" are just raising pointless scummy distractions. If someone PoV's Sly, then they're obvscum. It' snot going to happen,

This double voting/nomination system is unecessary and slanted to give scum more influence on the HoH's nominees while prolonging to game needlessly. Let's see things move.

[Kast]

Btw Sly, that wasn't a semantics argument. You tried to be confusing, but regardless of what your intended meaning was, it makes no sense.

[Kast]

@Sly-
-I posted thoughts and such after catching up. There's been some discussion on what I brought up, lot of "uh huh" "nuh uh" empty posts just to pad post history, and some attempts to distract from your lynch. Nice try.
-

Why do some of you sign up for Big Brother Mafia if you hate Big Brother so much. Try signing up for normal games if you don't like twists.

How about responding to what I actually posted? This double voting is unnecessary for our current game and gives scum more control over the two nominees than they should have. We should simply voice our suspicions and the HoH should simply pick based on the information available to him.

We have adopted a bad strategy that is giving scum more power to wiggle out of a lynch. I dislike the strategy, nothing about disliking the game. Your straw man is noted, though you're obvscum anyway so kinda pointless.
-I wasn't discussing the ad hom statement. How about actually reading the posts instead of being intentionally confusing? The issue I raised is that your claim that PE "saved" kmd and this somehow implicates KMD and PE makes no sense. Your claim would only make sense if KMD actually was in any danger of being lynched. He wasn't, so being veto'd is not an indicator of any affiliation between the two.

Making sure Sly doesnt have PoV. If he has PoV he will use it, and burn up our last one. If he claims to have PoV, or if no one claims to have PoV, it can be assumed that him (or ani) has it and is intending to get rid of the last one.

I have to say having NO PoVs around can get quite ugly quite quickly. Something where scum stumbles into HoH and puts up two people everyone thinks is town on their way down for instance.

False. If Sly is the town's preferred lynch target, then we should press for the lynch regardless of whether he has PoV. If he has PoV, then we force scum to either burn PoV instead of giving it to a teammate or potentially catch his teammate later if he passes it to someone. PoV is not a strictly town power. If Sly is town, then we result in a townie using PoV to prevent the lynch of someone he knows is a confirmed townie (himself) which is ideal usage for PoV. Most likely, he does not have PoV, so this is a mute topic that just serves to give him wiggle room to escape.

you gave Paltry support to waste a POV on a player who was in no danger of being evicted

You clearly understand this distinction, so you have no excuse for repeatedly claiming that PE was "saving" KMD. The only sensible explanations for PE using the PoV are:
-town who wants someone other than KMD and Hewitt lynched
-scum who wants to waste the PoV
Your claim that his reason was:
-save KMD (scum buddy or buddying action)
is completely senseless.

[Kast]

Hi all,

Sly is scummy. SB is a lurker/semi-active. Scummy wins hands down.

Vote: Sly

It's disturbing to see so many players so reluctant about Sly and trying to back down now. It's probably overall good for town since Sly's scumbuddies are probably among those players.

If SB is scum as well, I could see SB's scumbuddies hesitant to join a lynch of Sly since they wouldn't know if he is town or not and at least hesitating might give them some distance from SB.

I'll check now and then, but don't expect anything near what I normally do in most games due to holiday stuff and being sick.

One more thought, if Animorph flips scum, Hewitt is a candidate for his buddy. While Hewitt has his "reasons" for putting SB up, and while Sly is such a no-brainer lynch for today that secondary candidates don't really matter much.
-On a secondary look at this point:

If I hadn't replaced SensFan and known that I was a floater I would've definitely pegged animorpherv/SensFan scumteam.

This is an indicator of animorph/sensfan buddies. It's not a 100%, but it's much better than random. Outsiders tend to see things better (like how Hewitt and I both see Sly as obvscum from reading through), and often scum tries to hide their predecessors mistakes with throwaway comments like that.

Further, looking through Sens posts, there is nothing to indicate a pairing between Sens and Animorph, only the opposite way, Animorph trying to buddy with Sens/Hewitt. Hewitt's claim that Animorph scum would buddy with a teammate but be too stupid to buddy with a townie. Also, a player appearing too stupid to intentionally buddy with a townie is a crap defense.

Hewitt also calls Animorph a generally anti-town/bad player. He was in Hewitt's top 3 all of D1 and the prime candidate pushed for eviction when the PoV was used. Why did SB's indirectly scummy behavior override this?

Conditional on Animorph flipping scum, Hewitt may need to be re-examined.

[Kast]

Btw- all of the stuff after the vote is pretty much for tomorrow.

To head off any attempted distractions with crap arguments that I'm voting Sly and posting about other people; those arguments are just crap. Sly is obv scum and is my desired lynch for today. I expect everyone to have an idea of candidates for future.

[Kast]

@KMD-
Your response is completely devoid of anything actually game relevant. How about posting some content?

Did I ID your scumbuddies so now you want to discredit without getting your fingers dirty?

[Kast]

@Sly-
Who do you intend to select as next HoH?

[Kast]

@KMD-
Your response is a much better post.

-Sly pushing for an early deadline to cutoff more town input was scummy. Sly arguing that HoH should listen to majority opinions, then going completely against that is contradictory and scummy. Sly's replacement nomination of DC was scummy. Your implication that others think it is scummy because it goes against their beliefs is false. It is scummy because the reasons he provided don't really stand up and because it is inconsistent with his previously stated suspicions. Instead of going for a scummy target, he went for something a "safe" mislynch.

-Your "reasons" for SB being scummy are all passive and equivalent to saying she is lurking and/or active lurking. These are all soft/weak scum tells. Someone who is actively scummy is a much better target.

Regardless of how you and I may feel about SB, Hewitt has stated that he thinks Animorph is actively scummy and that SB is just scummy by virtue of being lurky. Given that Hewitt also supports town providing input for HoH and HoH at least partially listening to the input, it is inconsistent that Animorph was not nominated instead of SB. Again, this is minorly excusable since Sly is clearly the best lynch for today, so the second target is not *as* important.

-You might not personally think Hewitt would point it out, but he HAS and he HAS said the interaction between SF and Animorph is indicative of scum. It is a scumtell and happens more often when the replacing player is scum than when the replacing player is town.

@Coup d'etat-
I won it. I don't plan to overturn decisions unless I strongly feel the HoH is scum AND/OR the HoH's targets are horrendous.

[Kast]

Hi guys, catching up...another post to follow this one.

[Kast]

I think the votes made after Sironigous (which I consider to be in this twilight) have been more than informative. I think that it's quite possible that Paltry felt more comfortable to vote snow bunny at this point in time knowing that Sly is dead. Had Paltry voted before hand, I think all signs were pointing to a Sly vote.

All the votes after Sly was already lynched aren't very meaningful. I agree it seemed strongly as though PE would have voted Sly if Sironigous didn't hammer. However, once the hammer hit, the targets of remaining votes are meaningless in terms of game mechanics, and are really just for show.

About Sironigous suddenly hammering; the two most likely explanations I see are:
-Town finishing off obv-scum
-Producer scum sealing the deal on a non-teammate
Either one is plausible. It will be good to keep an eye on whether Sironigous acts similarly in future lynches.

Possible distancing.

Everyone should have an idea of their top suspects and should want those suspects lynched. This post is pretty anti-town.

Interesting post. Sly had actually said repeatedly that saber was his top choice and a definite evictee, until the post where he finally suggested KMD and Sensfan. It would seem more natural that his failure to put saber up indicated protection of saber. I'm not sure how you draw that he was protecting zwet.

@Hewitt-
You did initially claim SB as one nomination you wouldn't mind. However, this disappeared from your later posts until you became HoH.
You agreed with Crazy on AM as replacement nomination after Veto.
You later modify your list with AM third after Saber and Zwets (SB is gone from this list)
SB returns as your third choice after saber and Zwet only after the replacement nominee has already been picked.

Again, the second choice is a minor point, given your claimed PoV at the time

I would expect and hope SlySly would be evicted however if for some reason public opinion changed and SlySly was saved I would not mind any of those three being evicted.

Although I'll note now that you've apparently changed your position in claiming you were more suspicious of SB than Sly.

However, I did mistakenly think that some of your posts about saber being extremely anti-town and your top pick after Sly were about AM. In any event, your choice of SB was odd as SB was clearly NOT your top pick previously (how you feel about SB now does not effect how you felt about SB previously, that is fallacious).

A huge part of scumhunting IS looking for potential scumteam-tells. Potential pairings that indicate players may be on the same team are important to point out, especially if the town appears to be missing them.

@KMD-

-Paltry came out of the gate with a "town read" on Sly and voted him for HoH BEFORE he was comfortable calling anyone scum. As soon as Sly took heat, he went after Sly himself.

It looked like PE turned against Sly as soon as Sly made his nominations. Most of the early heat on Sly came from PE.

Vote: Animorph

Animorph seems the best bet for scum and most informative lynch today.

Secondary targets aren't really that important. If I had to nominate a second, I'd probably nominate Saber(BV) based on the possible protection from Sly.

AM is obviously targetting me since I pointed out his interactions with Hewitt. He's probably also trying to force a waste of the Coup d'etat power.

I'd say the less real opinion they had, the more they should go up

This completely fails. I've shared my opinions on things, and most all were shared well before anyone else even touched on the subjects. Just because everyone else waits 2 or 3 days before engaging in discussion on things I've already shared my thoughts about, doesn't mean I never posted.

@Should aim for a particular scum team?
No. We should aim to lynch the most probable scum, regardless of which scumteam that player is on. Eliminating one team doesn't remove a night kill, so the primary factor that normally inclines town to eliminating a faction is not present. We just want to his the most likely scum. At this point, that would be animorph.

[Kast]

@Llama-
Even if we end up with a full mafia B team and a single mafia A member, we would still have to lynch the most probable scum, even if that player "claimed" to be the last remaining mafia A. For mafia A, he would definitely still lose the game (either by failing to hit mafia B or after a mafia B member is lynched) if he claims. If the town obeys your strategy and spares the player who claims, then we've just handed mafia B a get out of jail free card that could let them flat out win.

@AM-
Your statement doesn't match with your actions. You don't actually care about opinions, you just want to attack players who don't post that frequently, regardless of whether the posts they have made had content (opinions) or not.

Stating you didn't know I had coup d'etat is a BS excuse. If you are scum, you're obviously lying. You're pretty obv-scum.

@Hewitt-
I initially posted that your SB nom as HoH was weird, to which you FALSELY claimed that SB has been your top pick even over Sly. You mentioned SB once on replacing in, then completely dropped her from your suspects while Sly was picking a replacement to be lynched instead of you. After the replacement was picked, you added SB back, but just as a "pawn" to go against your top choice Sly.

@KMD-
Neither of those two are my top suspects, but I would vote PE over Crazy. I find Crazy's play so far to be more pro-town than PE's, though neither of them are coming across as scummy.

@Crazy-

And think of it, Sly had to be doing SOMETHING when he nominated DisCode! Why else would he do something that made him look like total scum? I'm not sure if Kast is the answer to that question, but that question has to have SOME answer, right? What do you think?

On re-read, the most likely answer is that he was defending saber who was supposedly his top suspect.

[Kast]

Also, happy new year.

[Kast]

Why are you trying to twist around that I did not want Snow Bunny evicted?

Quit the straw manning. I never said you did not want SB evicted, what I did was post where you clearly stated Sly was your TOP suspect, and several instances showing that SB was at best your THIRD suspect. Saying someone was not your top suspect is NOT equivalent to saying they are not your suspect at all. Also, why do you keep focusing on only SB and avoid discussing your other candidates? Could you be trying to distract attention from AM and/or Saber and towards SB?

I initially claimed that Snow Bunny would be a pawn, the town was more infuriated with Sly and I wanted to be tapped as HoH next and I knew that saying I would put up a pawn against Sly would probably get me tapped as HoH.

I already linked back to the actual posts. You clearly and unambiguously stated that Sly was your top pick for eviction. SB was only your THIRD choice as a pawn against Sly (and not always listed as a choice), Unambiguously NOT your preferred eviction target. You have since then changed your position and lied that it is the same position you have always held, but the post record shows this is false.

If we take your current position at face value, you are directly claiming that you lied to the town about your intentions so you would be picked as HoH (note: telling a partial truth along with a lie does not make the lie into the truth). That is scummy and somewhat inexplicable.

@Nominations-
I don't see anymore productive discussion about Crazy vs. PE happening anytime soon. Neither is an ideal candidate. However, I do not plan to use the coup power. While I disagree with KMD's choices, going with his own gut is pretty characteristic of his normal meta so it doesn't seem indicative of his affiliation. I see two good candidates at the moment, but short of that, it seems likely that there is at least one scum hiding pretty well as a townie. Neither of PE or Crazy has done anything that makes them so probable town to be worth saving.

If PE is a townie, I fully expect a sensible HoH selection who will nom the obv-scum candidate AM (secondary candidate against AM doesn't really matter).

Vote: PE

@People who say they would nom me to force usage of Coup power-
That's ridiculously anti-town behavior. Nom'ing me to force Coup usage should ONLY happen if the HoH thinks I am scum. It should not be done simply because I have the power. Using the possession of Coup power as a reason itself for nom'ing a player is crap-logic.

[Kast]

@Hewitt-
OMGUS and ad hom. If you bother listing an actual reason I'll gladly show you why you're wrong. Realize that just because you can't understand something and throw a fit, that does not excuse you to be scummy/anti-town.

Also interesting that you continue to try deflecting attention away from rather than addressing the other points I raised.

[Kast]

@Coup d'etat-
I do not plan to use it today.

so we can assume Kast is HoH day 8.

This is probable.

@Hewitt-
Calm down. Your emotional outbursts and insults are a sharp deviation from your previous behavior and are reminiscent of your predecessor's (SensFan) typical anti-game MO. Your attempt to distract from arguments by insulting are textbook ad hom.

Your decision to nom me in the event that you become HoH after I didn't back down from pointing out your inconsistencies and potential scumtells is classic OMGUS.

Initially you acknowledged my points and said I was entitled to my opinion (read: you tried to appease me). When this failed, you added me as your top nom NOT because of anything I have done, but simply because I have the coup d'etat. The only reason you provide is a blatant example of fearmongering.

-Using possession of the Coup d'etat as the reason for nominating Kast allows a scum HoH to absolve themselves from actual scumhunting and from any responsibility if the day ends with a mislynch.

-Preserving the Coup d'etat power allows town to test Kast if a situation arises where a scum-HoH reveals himself.

-If scum-Kast used coup d'etat in any situation other than immediate game win, it would have to be used in a pro-town manner OR it would result in scum-Kast being lynched the following day (and almost definitely reveal one scumbuddy). This has been pointed out multiple times.

-Hewitt's fearmongering situation is almost impossible to enter into. In order for scum-Kast to survive after using Coup d'etat, scum-Kast must either have a teammate who will be nominated as HoH (and no PoV active) OR scum-Kast must be part of mafia B with ALL members alive and use Coup d'etat on Day 8.

-Any other use of Coup d'etat must happen in a pro-town manner, which would STILL draw attention to Kast, regardless of Kast's affiliation.

-From just the odds, having a townie with Coup d'etat power who can save the town in the event that Mafia B is HoH on Day 8 is equivalent to Hewitt's fearmongering situation in which a member of Mafia B receives and uses Coup d'etat power on Day 8.

@PE-
Crazy is actually attempting to scumhunt today. I defended your previous decision to use the PoV, although I disagreed with your decision to use it. I don't think that it was inherently scummy, but it certainly wasn't a town indicator.

You are also a more information rich lynch as a result of more interactions with other players. While unlikely, it is also still possible that kmd's suspicions of you could turn out to be true.

Neither of you are an ideal choice; but it is a complete misrepresentation to claim that I find either of you to be extremely likely to be town (or even likely enough town that you are worth saving).

@Christmas/New Year/Winter Break Period-
Nobody should be held scummy for less access during the past two weeks. Holidays are busy for everyone and there's nothing wrong with spending time with family and friends.

Also, I'll be out of town from Wednesday til Sunday. I should have intermittent access during this time.

[Kast]

Listen nobody is that fucking stupid.

Calling people who hold a particular viewpoint "fucking stupid" IS blatant ad hom.

if I were to be tapped as HoH you better expect your ass to be going up to get rid of that shit.

Rather than actually showing how the Coup d'etat is a bad thing, he instead just calls it "shit" and appeals to emotion/fearmongers.

Nominate: Kast

Clear OMGUS. His opinion was stated previously, he only made this 'nomination' after it was clear that I would not back down and let him hide.

Because honestly if I had to pick a player to hold the town's decision in their hands it would not be him.

He attempts to "prove" his point by attacking my decision making ability divorced from the actual decisions. Clear ad hom since he has admitted agreement with my noms (AM and Saber are his choices just below SB).

Kast there's no point in being bitter about it,

Belittling my posts as "being bitter" instead of addressing them.

I don't know how you can't see that from another player's perspective, that is the smartest route to take.

More belittling instead of explaining his position.

What the fuck are you talking about? There are soooo many things wrong with this post it's not even funny.

Emotional attack. Supporting points are re-hash of the attack without providing support.
1. Hewitt contradicts self after acknowledging my attacks.
2. -
3. Emotional appeal instead of explanation.
4. Read your posts. Repeatedly posting, "What the fuck are you talking about?" is clearly throwing a fit. Throwing a fit instead to avoid answering a post is scummy.
5. More emotional appeal and ignoring my posts.
6. Since Hewitt isn't actually reading the game, it's obvious he isn't seeing things.

I wouldn't nominate Kast to evict him, he most certainly would not be at the top of my list if I were tapped as HoH.

Vote: Paltry
Nominate: Kast

Contradiction.

Oh and right now at this point

This alone is a clear admission that his nomination is OMGUS. At present, Hewitt's "reason" to nom me is still potential "DOOM" from scum-Kast using Coup d'etat. Yet, there were no posts or changes in opinion or decisions which could affect the likelihood of Hewitt's "DOOM" scenario. The only "change" that happened was Hewitt tried to appease me, and I didn't back down.

[Kast]

My point was that in that first post you seemingly had me at most pro-town.

Not sure where you're drawing that from. In my first post, the only person I actually listed with a probable town was saber, and that was a weak read.

I had some suspects, I had a lot of neutral players, and I had 3 positive reads (one of which was gut town and was not you).

Since then, Crazy has appeared to genuinely be scumhunting, although I disagreed with his conclusion from hunting. You have stayed pretty much the same.

the second is a false situation. If the entire town thinks that the HoH is scum, then you using the Coup d'Etat is appeasement.

Refusal to use Coup d'etat would be scum indicative (fail the test), whereas agreement to use the Coup d'etat would be null. Your assumption about the second would be false, however, your assumption is not what I posted.

[Kast]

As an example of ad hom in kind with Hewitt's post:

the second is a false situation. If the entire town thinks that the HoH is scum, then you using the Coup d'Etat is appeasement.

"What the fuck? You can't be so stupid that you believe the shit you posted."

Note the difference between explaining a position and making an ad hom attack/dismissal.

[Kast]

@PE-
Ad hom means attacking the person instead of the argument. Dismissing an argument by stating:
-The person making it is stupid.
-Anyone who believes/subscribes to it is stupid.
-The person making it has terrible judgment.

Are examples of ad hom. Hewitt did all three of these as I quoted. It's not just aggression, it's ad hom. The two are not mutually exclusive. Your implication is false.

@Hewitt-

With the Sly nomination I was pretty much just giving the town what they wanted and Snow Bunny was my nomination, who I strongly believe is scum.

This is a lie as I already pointed out. You specifically stated Sly is your top choice. SB was ONLY your third choice.

-Good to see you calm down now. That does not erase your tantrums from earlier.

-You made direct insults as well as generic swearing. None of it was actually game relevant. Some was ad hom, some was appeal to emotion, some exemplify both.

-Your chronology makes no sense. You initially tried appeasement, when that failed, you changed your list of noms in an OMGUS reaction to the failure of your appeasement. Your OMGUS reaction provides you with a *seemingly* legitimate reason to waste the town's Coup d'etat if you gain the HoH. You know that you are not my top nomination, and you know that your buddy AM will be lynched regardless of whether I use Coup d'etat.

Your flip flopping on who your noms would be is more indication that you are more interested in scheming than finding scum.

-Instead of ignoring my posts and saying I didn't point out inconsistencies, explain how the inconsistencies I pointed out are not inconsistencies.

-You should stop trying to create confusion about Coup d'etat. If I use it in a non-pro-town manner, then I will be lynched the following day. Nothing WIFOM about that.

The only exception is if I were scum and immediately won from using it. This can ONLY happen in a specific and improbable situation which is equivalent in probability to the specific and likewise improbable situation where preservation of Coup d'etat is the only way to allow town to win. Your persistent use of an unlikely corner case to scare town is blatant fearmongering and is very scummy.

Attack most popular nominee.
Attack Hewitt.

This is a seriously misleading half-truth. Your implication that I'm only following after the majority opinion is completely false. You are correct that I attacked Sly who became the most popular nominee and was lynched as a result. However, a huge reason he was a popular nominee was because I pointed out to town that he was obv-scum.

I've primarily attacked Sly, AM, Hewitt, and Saber. All attacks have been supported with reasons and posts, most of which were completely original (although most were later echoed by other players).

The exception, and generally odd man, is saber who I had a slightly town read on replacement but later reversed the read based on re-read of Sly prompted by Crazy and Sironigous.

When I joined, I pegged Sly as obvious scum but the town as a whole was doing a pretty terrible job of realizing that. The major pressure and consensus to lynch Sly all built up after I replaced in and pointed him out as obv-scum. After Hewitt finally nommed Sly, I voted him and chastised the town for dragging their feet. Seeing as I was correct and Sly did flip scum, I think I was pretty justified in pushing the case and attack against him.

AM was certainly not trusted by most players, but Saber was far and away the more popular nominee. Nobody was focusing on AM's player interactions that indicated him as scummy, rather the attention on him prior to my attacks was just because he and saber were both very n00b-y and had their bet.

I'm assuming you aren't objecting to my attacks on Hewitt.

I have attacked Saber more recently, but it's a major stretch to claim that he is the most popular nominee.

[Kast]

Back, scanned through.

-My suspicion of BV(saber) was not primarily a result of suspicion of Hewitt. Primary suspicion was due to Sly attacking Saber and agreeing with town that saber was scummy for most of D1, but inexplicably dropping saber (who had been his top suspect) when he actually made nominations. Sly dropped a guaranteed lynch who would not have made him look bad even if saber flipped town. The simplest and only sensible explanation is that he was initially going along with town but didn't want to lynch his buddy.

-My top suspect is still AM. Saber (BV) is probably the last chenbot. I'm fine with lynching either chenbot or producer today; if necessary, I can use Coup tomorrow or the next day if it looks like a producer HoH puts up floaters. That probably won't matter since AM lynch should get rid of a producer.

[Kast]

I'm probably going to end up nominating ani/bv anyway

Good choices, although AM is the obvious vote. Any secondary candidate against AM is mostly show.

[Kast]

@Noms-

Vote: AM

@AM-
I would like to hear who you plan to select as HoH and why.

@Llama-

Ive been thinking about it a bit though, and I almost like ani-kast nom more given that it would force responses as opposed to setting up an obvious chain of events for tomorrow.

(if anyone is missing the chain, its evicted puts up X, Kast overthrows)

I will only overthrow if I strongly feel that the nominees are liable to result in a floater eviction.

Your chain is missing some key points:
-AM gets evicted and flips scum.
-AM picks his scumbuddy (probably Hewitt) as next HoH.
-HoH noms two floaters.
-Kast uses Coup.
Using the Coup to stop a floater eviction is a desirable chain of events.

Your implications that Kast should be forced to waste Coup today to prevent usage tomorrow isn't well thought out. Using Coup D5 would be bad play for scum; it would be far better to save it for D6. I am a bit surprised that you based an argument on such a bad assumption, especially given that this point has already been discussed.

[Kast]

@AM-
-Do you feel like you are playing to your win condition?

[Kast]

@Llama-
Today is D4. Coup and PoV are usable until D6. Your argument to force use of Coup on D4 so it doesn't get used on D5 doesn't address how forced use on D4 would be any better for town than forced use on D5. It also begs the question on whether use of Coup is a bad thing for town.

The assumption that nomination of Kast is necessary and sufficient to prompt use of Coup on D4 also betrays an underlying assumption that Kast will not use Coup to save scumbuddies; is that a slip that you know I am either town or solo-scum?

@AM-
Playing to make things exciting doesn't really fit the town win condition. A townie should select an HoH who is likely to nominate scum candidates.

Your reason sounds like a shield to hide any scum-motivations for your HoH selection.

[Kast]

@Hewitt-
Pay more attention. My post was very clearly and obviously a response to and continuation of conversation with Llama that refers to D4. Noted as a poorly thought out character attack.

@Llama-
Agreed with your assessment of how scum would have to use Coup. I'm suspicious of your "mistake" in repeating that tomorrow is the last day to use Coup, since it seems out of character with the rest of your play to make that mistake.

@Crazy-

If Kast is a Mafia Producer on Day 6 with both of his partners still alive, he could use the coup and win. On Day 5, he won't be able to instantly win by using it, regardless of his alignment.

And if Kast is forced to use Coup D5, then town loses the ability to stop a Producer-HoH from auto-winning*. Odds of Kast being non-Producer to being Producer are roughly 4 to 1.

This kind of discussion, similar to Llama's previous post, are more examples of fearmongering and are extremely irresponsible if conducted by townies. Even townies who might be suspicious of Kast should wait to see how AM flips, rather than providing a crap-logic justification for AM's probable scumbuddy HoH nomination.

*-There is a difference between forced use of Coup for sake of using it up and use of Coup for sake of killing scum. If it looks like Coup must be used to be able to lynch scum, then it will be used.

Forcing use of Coup for it's own sake is scummy.

[Kast]

@Pablito-
Taking time to think about the game is fine. However, realize your vote does not matter, except to keep you from being modkilled (and then the target still does not matter).

If you think you will be too busy to catch up on the game prior to deadline, don't hold off on placing a vote.

@Crazy-
In the event that Kast is Producer-scum AND AM is non-Producer, then town is pretty much screwed even with a forced use of Coup. Scum-Kast will be unlynchable and his nominations would be picked to ensure no lynch of his scumbuddies. Scum-Kast would only be nommed on D6 if neither buddy was selected as HoH. This leaves 2 scumbuddy voters who can control the lynch for the win. If Producer-scum control PoV on D6 (or D5) it would be auto-win.

And if Kast is forced to use Coup on D5, town will be completely unable to distinguish any affiliation information from the use.

But again, this discussion is unlikely to be useful since we've just evicted obv-scum.

[Kast]

Or, we dont make you use overthrow, if you are producer town loses. If you arent, we lynch town, who puts up producer, we still can lose.

This is more fearmongering without considering what will actually happen. If I am producer and AM is not, town has already essentially lost.

Forced use of Coup tomorrow has very little effect on that except to completely prevent town from gaining information to determine whether Kast is producer or not.

Town's best course of action is to nail non-Kast suspected-Producer tomorrow. If Kast is Producer, this forces Kast to reveal himself and his buddy, OR stops the auto-Coup win.

You can not tell me that you are not going to use overthrow at all. NO WAY that it just expires, regardless of your alignment it is going to be used.

Reading comprehension fail. I will use Coup on D5 even if not forced if it looks like that is necessary to hit scum (ie. AM picks his scumbuddy as HoH).

[Kast]

@Llama-
I'm not sure what to make of your flip-flopping on the issue of forcing use of Coup for it's own sake. Your arguments for putting me up now are not based on finding me scummy (if you have an argument on that, you should put it up), but rather based on the unlikely possibility that something terrible could happen.

At the same time, your analysis now dismisses the potential benefits to town, something you previously argued for. This change in position sounds is quite suspicious.

[Kast]

In the event that you are produer and he isnt, putting you up (forcing you to use overthrow) is the only way town can win.

This fails for several reasons:
-You are omitting the requirement that town does not lynch Producer tomorrow. If town HoH noms a Producer on D5, then scum-Kast must either let his teammate die (losing the autowin) OR directly reveal himself and his teammate. This is what town

should

aim for, instead of aiming at a game mechanic.
-Town PoV + Town HoH prevents a D6 Producer-Scum from using Coup to auto-win.
-You are using an extremely unlikely chain of events to justify behavior instead of looking at what is probable.
-Your insistence on pushing your position WITHOUT waiting for guaranteed info from AM's flip is scummy like nothing else. It is akin to Sly's push for ending initial HoH selection period. There is absolutely no reason for townies to do what you are doing.

You are missing what I am saying though.

Not really. I distinctly and repeatedly have said I would use Coup on D6 (final day). I added a caveat that I may use Coup on D5 if I feel it necessary. You argued a straw man that my caveat was a claim to potentially never use the Coup power. My post didn't say or imply anything of that sort. Just because you link a lie with something we agree on does not make the lie any less of a lie.

-Crazy weakly suggested I am Chenbot scum.
Hewitt said I am scum pro-town until I refused to back down, then OMGUSed and said I must be scum because I have the Coup d'etat.
You have not provided reasons other than an improbable doomsday scenario.

@Crazy-
-Forced use of Coup prevents town from stopping a D6 producer win if a Producer is selected as HoH.
-Forced use of Coup prevents town from learning information from my use of Coup.

@Hewitt-
More fail in your post. You attempt to blend two distinct thoughts into one and hide your crap-attack. They are separate. The first is a reading failure on your part. Such a failure is uncharacteristic of your other behavior and this indicates it is a scum move.

The second part shows you aren't even trying. I have posted my reasons and responses to your fearmongering. You simply resort to insults instead of any explanation or discussion.

Bottom line is this:
-There is one extremely unlikely situation in which forced use of Coup stops town auto-loss
-There is one equally if not more probably situation in which forced use of Coup guarantees town auto-loss
-In all other cases, forced use of coup is strictly worse than consensual use of Coup and directly deprives town of information.

-The only situation where forced use of Coup should be considered is if AM is non-Producer. AM is lynched. We will learn his affiliation tomorrow. Insisting on a decision BEFORE learning AM's affiliation is scummy like nothing else.

[Kast]

@Llama-
Way to fix on one point and ignore the rest. Also, where is that case against me?

On the point you tried arguing, you are wrong.

D6 with 3 Producers, Producer Coup, non-Producer HoH, non-Producer PoV:

non-Producer HoH cannot be nominated. non-Producer PoV user picks another non-Producer, both are immune to nomination. Three non-Producer voters means no auto-win for Producers. It's really simple and your failure to see this shows that you aren't thinking through what I posted.

-If you are town, then seriously think through your scenarios instead of making assumptions. The sloppy play here is typical of the rest of your arguments for forcing use of the Coup.

@Hewitt-
If we take your post at face value, then you are claiming you think I am not scum, but still want to evict me. [sarcasm]That makes tons of sense...[/sarcasm]

Also, more ad hom. You should calm down and play the game; address points with arguments and discussion instead of repeatedly resorting to insults.

@Crazy-

I am assuming here that ani is non-producer and the Day 5 lynch is non-producer,

To the first, we will see in a few hours.

To the second, the priority for D5 should be hitting Producer-scum. If HoH is a townie, his objective should be to pick the most probable Producers as his noms. Playing a strategy that assumes this will not happen locks townies into suboptimal play and excuses scum to engage in anti-town behavior.

if they were producers, then this whole argument is irrelevant

I have been saying this. At this point, my guess is that Hewitt knows he's going down after AM flips and he is probably trying to do damage control from his death by trying to trick town to accept forced burn of Coup without thinking things through.

@Pablito-
Unless you plan to be modkilled, you should place a vote.

@Mod-
If Pablito is modkilled, does that limit Coup and PoV to D5 as the last day?

[Kast]

GG. Let's see Hewitt swing today.

[Kast]

@Probable Chenbot-
Saber/BV is the probable last Chenbot. Sly bussed him with his arguments and attacks throughout D1, but when it came down to it, didn't take any real actions to get rid of him. Siroginous initially supported saber for HoH, then turned around and joined the anti-saber group (bussing) once that was clearly the majority. The argument that it is too obvious is just a variant on "too scummy to be scum" and doesn't hold any water. There is absolutely no reason for a scum Sly HoH to abandon his position, thwart the will of the town, and make himself a huge target by dropping saber/BV instead of just nominating him and letting him be evicted. If he went with that, Sly would probably still be alive now.

I don't really see much of a SB as last chenbot case; I see SB as a non-contributing lurker in this game. Could be a lurker like Sir, or could be just disinterest in this game.

@Probable Producer-
Hewitt is probably AM's buddy. Of all AM's interactions, the clearest tie is with SF. Hewitt has also had consistency problems with inexplicably adding and dropping players from his suspicion lists (including AM and saber/BV), pretty much in direct relation with how the town as a whole felt about those players; and ultimately he repeatedly abandons his "suspects" for a game mechanic nomination.

To note, the only point where Hewitt doesn't follow the town is his self contradictory attacks on me where he indirectly calls me scum, but refuses to directly state it. His attempts to slip by on the technicality that he never directly calls me scum or says "I want to evict Kast" are themselves pretty scummy.

The whole chain of crap logic coming from Hewitt is pretty ridiculous:
-Attack Kast for having Coup (fearmongering)
-Attack Kast for "scummy" posts (ad hom, straw men, crap-logic)
-Say he doesn't think Kast is scum (technicality)
-Wants to Nominate Kast anyway (even after it is impossible for his doomsday scenario to come true)

Llama is next most likely, though this is a big drop from Hewitt. I like Pablito's analysis regarding AM-Llama, but I don't think it is anywhere near as strong as AM-Hewitt.

@Llama-
You're somewhat paranoid. You are not an auto-vote; although your end of D4 posts do flag you as probable third Producer after Hewitt.

Putting yourself vs SB would be pretty meaningless. SB is obviously the town favorite for eviction, and anyone against SB would have the same result.

Putting yourself vs Kast is a bit more interesting, though hardly as informative as you claim. Clearly some players think you are a probable scum (SB, Pablito, KMD), and it looks like fewer have clearly stated desire to lynch me (Llama and Hewitt, though Hewitt is wishy washy on it). Regardless, KMD thinks I am town, and I know I am town, so you aren't going to see yourself vs Kast and you know it.

Your noms sound like bluffs more than anything else. In a standard game, the whole "I'm such a good townie that I offer myself to be lynched so you can lynch my candidate when you see I am a townie" argument is BS, and your current proposal is an even weaker variant of that.

@Hewitt-
Asked and answered question. You should really read.

@KMD/Nominations-
My top preference is Hewitt (Producer), second is Saber/BV (Chenbot). Third goes to Llama (Producer). It is probably better to get rid of a Producer to remove any potential voting blocs. If your noms are likely to result in eviction of any of these three, then I won't use Coup today.

To your question, if SB is evicted today, I will almost definitely put up BV and Hewitt tomorrow (if SB is the last Chenbot, then I won't put up BV and Llama will go up with Hewitt). So it is unlikely that you will see Pablito vs Llama on D6.

If you put up Pablito vs Llama today, I am pretty sure Llama will be evicted, which is not ideal, but acceptable, so I would not use Coup today.

[Kast]

@Mod-
I don't see myself getting evicted today or tomorrow.
I don't see chenbot scum team winning this game.
If Llama or Hewitt is Producer, then I don't see Producer scum team winning this game either.

Having 2-3 players who are universally or near universally recognized as probable town makes a town win extremely likely given the lack of NKs.

@Hewitt-

Snow Bunny has been my #1 since pretty much Day 1 and animorpherv was right behind at #2 or #3 pretty much the whole game too.

This is a blatant lie.

Your initial suspect was Zwet. SB was only a conditional suspect if KMD was scum.
You then added Saber as next after Zwet and SB third.
You admit that your "suspicion" of SB is due to active lurking (which you think scum would try to do in this game). This is opposed to Saber/Zwets/AM who you thought were actually scummy/anti-town.
As for your actual replacement nomination, you completely dropped SB and only listed Zwet/Saber.
You agree with Llama (your buddy?) that AM/Zwet/Saber should be evicted.
You post several times with minor suspicions, not once mentioning SB.
Then you beg that Llama not be nominated and that one of Saber/Zwets/AM be nominated.
You don't mention SB again until you name your picks if you were HoH. Sly is unambiguously your first choice against a pawn picked from Saber/Zwet/SB (note SB is LAST and now that you are out of danger your buddy AM has disappeared from your list).
In your answer to the HoH application form, you again leave SB completely out and instead claimed Sly and Saber.
Even after you were picked as HoH, you did NOT have SB as your top suspect. You directly stated Sly (confirmed) and Saber (unconfirmed) as your top suspects, with AM on similar footing with Saber.
SB resurfaces as an eviction candidate (and saber mysteriously disappears from your list). However, you admit that both SB and Sironigous are not being seriously considered yet.
SB's response wasn't satisfying to you and you finally raised her to top of your list.

Leading up to my nominations go point out where I stated that I was more likely to nominate animorph.

Reading through your posts in iso, it's pretty clear that SB is

not

your target until

immediately prior

to your nomination. Out of the blue, you post that Sir or SB should post more or they will BECOME real targets. SB responds and you say you will be nominating her. Then you nominate. It's not a long process or a consistent suspicion. You even wait until someone else (kmd) votes for SB before giving an actual explanation for your nomination, and then the explanation is just that you agree with what KMD posted (SB was actively lurking and not scum-hunting).

I pointed this out before, although didn't pull out all the relevant links (just key inconsistencies). The post record is all there. The sudden SB nom was probably distraction/defense to keep AM out of the spotlight.

[Kast]

@Hewitt-
To be clear, you are ignoring what the actual posts say in favor of what you want them to say?

I have never stated that you were never suspicious of SB and that she is not currently your #1. You are using a straw man to hide the inconsistencies in your suspicion lists and nominations.

[Kast]

I don't get what your whole self-esteem issue regarding you thinking I want you evicted is all about.

Do you enjoy making things into personal attacks? The comment about a "self-esteem issue" is a completely unnecessary personal remark. The ad hom is not helpful.

Also, you are using the ad hom to hide from addressing my point. It is inconsistent to nominate someone who you are not suspicious of. Your repeated nominations of me despite claiming that you never explicitly called me scum are more instances of your inconsistency.

You don't even have your fear-mongering excuse anymore, yet you continued to call for my nomination at the beginning of D5. Very scummy.

[Kast]

It is inconsistent to nominate someone who you are not suspicious of.

You don't even have your fear-mongering excuse anymore, yet you continued to call for my nomination at the beginning of D5. Very scummy.

Nothing ambiguous about those statements. Please clarify what you are having trouble understanding.

[Kast]

I don't know what reason you would claim I want to evict you

You nominated me for eviction. That's a pretty strong reason to claim you want to evict me.

Actions speak louder than words. You may not explicitly say you want to evict me (and may even claim otherwise), but your actions (actual votes for HoH nom) show otherwise.

[Kast]

Calm down please.

Obviously I won't get evicted if I use the Coup. There is no reason to force me to use the coup. I've been completely transparent with my suspicions and intent regarding the Coup usage.

Also, are you attempting to distract from post 1534?

[Kast]

So why target me?

I target you because a confirmed scum's posts (AM) implicate you as his buddy, and the inconsistencies in your suspicion list support this pairing (and don't make sense otherwise).

Your strong desire to remove the Coup from play is consistent with Hewitt as scum. Paired with a claim that you don't think the Coup holder is scum, and there is no reason for town-Hewitt to try and remove the Coup (plenty of reason for scum-Hewitt).

I'm not giving Crazy or Pablito or KMD a hard time because their actions thus far don't implicate them as scum. Your argument amounts to "why do you attack Hewitt for being scummy, but don't attack others for being pro-town". That makes no sense at all.

[Kast]

Also,

Vote: Llama

[Kast]

Will be travelling all day tomorrow and won't be around the weekend.

This will have to be a short post.

@Hewitt-
AMs posts implicating you as a buddy are obvious and you even admitted thinking SF and AM were buddies in your re-read. Claiming that you don't see that is ridiculous.

Your voting and suspicion lists show that you only "suspected" AM when he was clearly not in danger of being nominated, and each time when he would be in danger, you either dropped him from your list, or emphasized that Saber was more scummy.

@Mod's earlier question-
It wouldn't be fair to change the deadlines during this day. If mod wants to change deadlines on D6, that is fine provided there is adequate notice ahead of time.

@Pablito-
No questions atm. Hewitt and Llama are probable producer scum. Saber/BV is probable Chenbot (if not, it could be SB, but this is less directly supported).

[Kast]

Back. Scanned through, didn't see much that's actually interesting.

Hewitt again went into his fantasyland where he ignores direct links back to posts showing his ties with AM and claims there is no argument because he chose not to read it. His behavior is becoming extremely similar to Sens. Get pissed off, ignore posts that disagree with him, and make emotional outbursts to try and bully others to listen to him.

-Interesting use of PoV. If Pablito is a producer, then he probably knows I won't be noming him/his buddy. It's curious that Pablito and Hewitt traded the PoV. Is the PoV recipient told who gave him the PoV?

If Hewitt flips Producer, I can't see Pablito as Producer.

-Llama trying to "justify" selecting Hewitt was an obvious move. He clearly wants to protect his buddy Hewitt from being evicted tomorrow. His justification sounds like an attempt to hide his defense that once he flips; I will obviously be using Coup tomorrow and my targets have already been stated.

Vote: Llama

When Llama flips Producer, Hewitt is his obvious buddy. If he protects him from lynch tomorrow, then whoever gets picked as HoH after that, please do the right thing.

-KMD often holds a different opinion from the majority, this is regardless of his alignment. He has been consistent with his beliefs, which is more typical of his play as town than as scum. The sudden attacks on his target choice is suspicious given that those same objections really should have been aired much earlier if they were genuine concerns. Sound a lot more like setup for a D7 or D8 eviction of someone who has been generally considered a townie.

The Coup claim means nothing to me, I believe any player would've claimed having it.

BS. It is strictly better for a three man Producer scum to be quiet and not claim the Coup power. This is a probable scum slip. As a Producer, you know that any floaters or Chenbots (anyone not on your team) would be better off claiming the Coup than keeping it secret.

[Kast]

I want Hewitt up on the offchance that the town can either quicklynch you, or that someone gets modkilled today rendering coup useless. It doesnt matter who I put up really, but im going to put up someone symbolicly if all else fails.

Obvlie. Picking Hewitt is not a "symbolic" gesture in any sense. You are directly contradicting yourself by stating it is for a mechanics reason (to try and get me lynched). That itself is a lie to hide your real reason, which is obviously to keep your buddy from getting evicted tomorrow.

Seriously, what are your reasons for voting me apart from me wanting you dead since early in this game? You have given nothing for me to even respond against except "he is obviously scum" for what basically boils down to a half OMGUS/half semantics over overthrow.

You are scummy and Pablito is not. You have ties with AM and Hewitt. One is confirmed scum, the other is obv-scum.

What are your reasons for thinking I am scum? You have promised since halfway through the game (when you started "suspecting" me) that you would put up a case. You have NEVER delivered on this promise. The closest you have come to a reason is admit that fear is a strong motivator and implying you were following Hewitt's fearmongering case.

[Kast]

@Pablito-
When you were given PoV, does the mod tell you who gave it to you?

[Kast]

@Mod-

Actually, that question should be better posed to the mod. When a player gives PoV to another player, is the recipient told who gave them the PoV?

[Kast]

@Crazy-
I don't see how you can possibly ignore Llama's last act:
-Select buddy who is going to be nominated and make him immune to eviction.

Hewitt is the obv last producer. He and Llama have been trying to get rid of Coup because they know I would have used it to get rid of Hewitt.

Since Hewitt is immune to lynch today, it would be best to hit the last chenbot. BV(saber) is the best bet for this. I am also ok with an SB eviction, but I think that SB as chenbot is much less likely than BV as chenbot. I don't see a majority of players agreeing to a BV eviction until after SB is lynched, however, with the second producer evicted, we have enough time to lynch both and still win.

Those are the two I am planning to nominate.

For reference, here is my ordered scumlist:
hewitt
bv310
snow_bunny

pablito
Crazy
Kmd
Kast

[Kast]

I won't be around this weekend. Unless anything very compelling happens today, I plan to use Coup and nominate BV and SB tomorrow. I'm not completely decided on SB since I would prefer a BV eviction. It probably doesn't matter since we have enough mislynches to get both of them without putting town in danger.

[Kast]

Also as a note on my scumlist, Pablito is only above Crazy for the weak possibility that Hewitt is not the final Producer. If Hewitt is the final Producer, then Pablito moves equal or below Crazy.

At this point, I see KMD as nigh-confirmed town.

@Crazy-
It is not WIFOM. In one case, it is strictly bad, in the other case it is strictly good.

Its more of a symbolic thing then anything else since Kast is going to be taking over no matter what,

This is the key point. Llama scum

knows

that Kast will use Coup to get Hewitt evicted.

If Hewitt is his buddy, then selecting him as HoH is the ONLY way his team has a chance.

If Hewitt is not his buddy, then he has no incentive whatsoever to select Hewitt. Doing so lowers his partner's chance of survival from 100% to something less than 100%. Hewitt's likelihood of nominating Pablito (or anyone else) is completely meaningless since Kast will be the one making the nominations.

To the possibility that Llama might be setting up Hewitt for a future mislynch, this makes absolutely no sense. If he wants town-Hewitt mislynched, then he is much better off letting Kast push through a Hewitt lynch and take all the heat.

As it stands, he has clearly defended his buddy and tried extremely hard to hide any trace of that defense. He can now hope that town gets distracted with lynching the remaining chenbot and let's the last producer (Hewitt) slip through as long as possible.

[Kast]

@Crazy-
I already addressed your "slight wifom" factor. If Llama wanted Hewitt to be mislynched, then he could take no action and it would lock in Hewitt's lynch as well as place all the blame on a townie (Kast). This is akin to the claim that a mafia member would intentionally save a townie and put his buddy in danger on Day X so that he can put the saved townie in danger on Day X+1, instead of simply letting saved townie die on Day X with full responsibility on a different townie for Day X+1. Essentially a guaranteed 2 townies down with no information for townies vs 1 guaranteed townie down and chance for scumbuddy to be lynched.

@KMD-

Llama's choice for HoH is just symbolic.

You don't understand how Coup works. I take over instead of HoH, but I CANNOT nominate the deposed HoH. My choices for today were clear: Hewitt & BV. Llama is protecting Hewitt and making it impossible to nominate and evict him.

Pablito is NOT protected by Llama's move. If anything, Pablito is more likely to be lynched (from ZERO chance to one of the remaining candidates).

@Hewitt-

I expect Snow Bunny to be evicted no matter who Kast replaces for himself.

You don't understand how Coup works. Since you previously demonstrated that you understand how Coup works AND are a self professed fan of the theme, it is obvious that you are lying.

I become the new HoH. I nominate two people. I cannot nominate you because your buddy made you immune to being nominated.

Pretending that you thought Coup works like PoV is scummy because you obviously know the difference between the two.

@Mod-

I am using the Coup.
I am

nominating BV

.

@All-
I'll take some more thoughts and make a decision. I was leaning to SB as next on my list. However, it seems obvious that SB would be lynched, so there becomes no point to nominating BV (or anyone else). I am not a fan of the Pablito lynch, but it seems clear that Crazy and KMD are unwilling to lynch obvscum Hewitt until after Pablito is lynched. As an alternative to BV lynch, I would accept a Pablito lynch with the understanding that Pablito flipping floater hammers the nail on Hewitt's coffin.

Hewitt's claim that Pablito is probable floater is a typical scum-tell; afraid to call out the townie who is held up against him. He knows that as soon as Pablito flips town, his own head will roll.

The danger I see in this approach is that it uses up all of our allowed mislynches. I would like to hear KMD and Crazy's opinions on this. Pablito and BV's opinions are next most welcome. I don't really care what lies Hewitt wants to tell. I don't expect SB to offer any insights.

[Kast]

@Mod-
That is fine.

@Crazy-
Hewitt is just being disagreeable for it's own sake in an attempt to distract from his obvious scumminess.

Vote away people.

[Kast]

@Hewitt-
Learn to read please.

[Kast]

@Hewitt-
Under the best possible light your post includes an assumption that reveals a complete failure on your part to read my stated intentions. In all other lights it shows an intentional misinterpretation of game mechanics.

In either case, you are obviously trying to hide the fact that Llama picked you as HoH to protect you from being evicted.

@KMD-
There is no question that Llama would pick Hewitt as HoH if Hewitt was his buddy. Your defense of Hewitt makes no sense. It doesn't matter that picking Hewitt is an obvious move; Hewitt would be evicted if Llama picked anyone else. Again, there is no wifom about this. Llama's team loses if Hewitt is lynched. Hewitt will be lynched unless he is picked as HoH. There is no option here.

And note again that Hewitt saved AM from a D2 lynch. Everyone had stated a desire to lynch AM, including Hewitt. Yet, when Hewitt as HoH finally nominated his targets, he put up SB instead of either one of his top two suspects (saber and AM). Even when AM was finally lynched, Hewitt was pushing for SB to be lynched instead or Kast to be nominated instead. And again when Llama was up for eviction, Hewitt was again trying to keep his buddy alive.

[Kast]

Goooooood one.

If this post is a claim that you can read competently, then how about a demonstration to show it?

lol Yes, me being right and you being wrong would be painted as disagreeable by you wouldn't it.

-Point out where you were right (about anything at all in this game).
-Point out where I was wrong.
-Point out where I reference your behavior as being disagreeable as a result of you being right and me being wrong.

[Kast]

@Hewitt-
Seriously work on your reading comprehension.

-I directly and repeatedly stated that BV was my top choice. I stated that SB was under consideration, but that Pablito was also under consideration. Your response claims SB would definitely be evicted.

Your post was slightly ambiguous. The direct read is that Kast is only capable of replacing himself; if Kast was capable of replacing more than just himself, then SB's lynch is NOT guaranteed. This shows a failure to understand the mod's posts about game mechanics. Since you clearly do understand the game mechanic, that makes it clear that your misunderstanding is feigned.

You later AMENDED your message and are claiming what you meant was that Kast could replace SB but definitely would not. Even if we all pretend we are stupid and cannot see your blatant change to your story, this

still

shows you are incapable of or uninterested in reading my posts. I directly stated that BV was a definite choice for replacement but SB was NOT a definite choice. That means SB was NOT guaranteed.

You fail at reading either way. Work on that kiddo.

-You post an example showing you understand the game mechanics. Good. -Where is the example showing I am wrong? Fail.

You did post something where I point out an inconsistency between your D1 behavior and D2 behavior. Then you post something about your D2 behavior. Your claim about your opening post is completely irrelevant to the post you provided (it is also a blatant lie). Was that an attempt to trick the town into thinking your D1 position is the same as your D2 position? Surely you don't think we are all too stupid to go back and check the actual posts?

Or do you think we should ignore your actual posts and just believe that what you tell us you want your original post to be is what it actually is? I've done the work for you, all the actual posts you made are linked below.

As for your last point you state that I was being disagreeable when I apparently "didn't know" the rules of the Coup when I clearly have shown that I do and your argument against that is baseless and nonsensical.

Again, learn to read. We both agree that you know how Coup works. The problem is that despite knowing how Coup works, you claimed it works in a different way. The only sensible explanation for why you would do this is if you are scum trying to hide your tie with Llama.

Player A knows that Mechanic B does effect C.
Player A posts that Mechanic B does effect D.
Player E calls Player A out.
Player A shows an old post that he actually did know that Mechanic B does effect C.

This means Player A intentionally posted a false statement in the second point. Hewitt is Player A. Kast is Player E. Coup is Mechanic B. Coup user becoming dethroning HoH and picking two new targets is Effect C. Coup user replacing one target is Effect D.

Your initial suspect was Zwet. SB was only a conditional suspect if KMD was scum.
You then added Saber as next after Zwet and SB third.
You admit that your "suspicion" of SB is due to active lurking (which you think scum would try to do in this game). This is opposed to Saber/Zwets/AM who you thought were actually scummy/anti-town.
As for your actual replacement nomination, you completely dropped SB and only listed Zwet/Saber.
You agree with Llama (your buddy?) that AM/Zwet/Saber should be evicted.
You post several times with minor suspicions, not once mentioning SB.
Then you beg that Llama not be nominated and that one of Saber/Zwets/AM be nominated.
You don't mention SB again until you name your picks if you were HoH. Sly is unambiguously your first choice against a pawn picked from Saber/Zwet/SB (note SB is LAST and now that you are out of danger your buddy AM has disappeared from your list).
In your answer to the HoH application form, you again leave SB completely out and instead claimed Sly and Saber.
Even after you were picked as HoH, you did NOT have SB as your top suspect. You directly stated Sly (confirmed) and Saber (unconfirmed) as your top suspects, with AM on similar footing with Saber.
SB resurfaces as an eviction candidate (and saber mysteriously disappears from your list). However, you admit that both SB and Sironigous are not being seriously considered yet.
SB's response wasn't satisfying to you and you finally raised her to top of your list.

[Kast]

Enjoy your weekends all. This was my last post before weekend.

@Mod-

If I have to make a tie breaking vote (ie. if you decide Hewitt's vote does not count and others vote for BV), then my tie breaking vote goes to BV.

[Kast]

I don't see much left really.

@Producer-
Hewitt is obv-producer.
-The "too obvious to be scum" defense is crap-logic.
-The "Llama might be framing Hewitt for a mislynch" fails on the first step. If Hewitt was a floater, then NOT selecting him as HoH would result in his mislynch anyway (Kast picks Hewitt vs. KMD or Crazy). It would have the added effect of letting Llama frame a different floater as potentially being protected AND would drop the heat on Kast.

-SensFan and AM were obv-buddies. Llama and Hewitt were obv-buddies. Llama and AM had similar interactions that Hewitt and Llama tried to defend as too obvious to be tells. Well, after the flip we know they were actually tells and obviously Llama and AM aren't good enough to avoid making obv-tells.

@Chenbot-
Saber/BV is the most probable remaining chenbot.

-The only explanation that makes any sense for Sly's D1 choices were a last second reluctance to lynch his buddy. The town was calling for Saber's lynch; Sly was promising Saber's lynch; the only reason to avoid nom'ing Saber (PoV) was claimed and not going to be used on Saber. There is absolutely no reason for Chenbot-Sly to draw so much town attention on himself and make himself the primary candidate for D2 lynch other than to defend his buddy.

-The whole pretending to have PoV could have been a scum gambit for drawing out who actually had PoV. This is not a major point, since Saber was pretty random and senseless in general.

[Kast]

While I'm not a producer, there's no way I can prove that I'm not. In fact all evidence points to it. And I think it's in the town's best interest to lynch me first time I go up, because otherwise there's going to be a lingering doubt in the back of all your minds. And we need to remove this obstacle so that you can do the true scumhunting for the real producer.

Best way to handle this is to lynch the other potential Producer (Hewitt). When he flips Producer, you're cleared.

@Kmd - What do you think of Sir and zwet both voting Sly as HoH right near the end?

@Crazy- What do you think about Saber placing the critical vote that actually determined Sly would be HoH? Last vote on an already decided issue is meaningless. Even more so in a game where you get modkilled for not voting.

And note that this also applies to zwet:

Not really. Sly did not go the whole of D1 with Zwet as his top pick. He went the whole of D1 with Saber as his top pick (until he actually picked noms and inexplicably dropped Saber).

@Crazy offering self to by lynched-
If you're scum, then it's obviously not a genuine offer and is only an empty gesture to gain support/sympathy. If you're town, that's almost always a bad play, and this situation is no different.

You are clearly admitting one of Hewitt/Pablito is the most likely remaining Producer. With Pablito as HoH, the best choice is then to lynch Hewitt, and if Hewitt is not Producer, then we know Pablito is remaining Producer and town is in good shape. If Hewitt flips Producer, we are in great shape.

@Current expressed suspicions-
Kast- Hewitt is most probable Producer. BV is most probable Chenbot. If Hewitt flips town, then Pablito is next probable Producer. KMD is probable town.

KMD- Pablito is most probable Producer. Crazy is most probable Chenbot. Kast is probable town, but if Crazy flips town, then Kast is next. BV and Hewitt are probable town.

Crazy- One of Pablito & Hewitt is most probable Producer (no preference indicated between the two). Kast & BV are equally likely as Chenbots, except for KMD's meta read on BV. KMD is probable town.

Pablito- Hewitt is most probable Producer. BV is most probable Chenbot. If BV is town, Crazy is next probable Chenbot. KMD & Kast are most probable town.

BV- Wanted KMD up previously. Trusted Crazy and Pablito. Hasn't said much else or more specifics.

Hewitt- Doesn't want to call Kast scum, but wants Kast evicted. Doesn't seem to care about anything else as long as he is not evicted.

I'm guessing he gave up on this game since his buddy was evicted and he's pretty much guaranteed a loss.

The best course of action that maximizes town's win chance based on expressed suspicions is to lynch Hewitt today. If Hewitt flips Producer, we have 3 lynches to catch the last scum (4T/1M). If Hewitt flips town, we have a guaranteed lynch of Pablito as the only plausible remaining Producer and still have 2 lynches to catch the remaining scum (3T/1M).

With three primary candidates remaining for last Chenbot, and only 2 guaranteed lynches to catch the remaining Chenbot, it is strictly bad play for a townie to offer himself as a lynch candidate.

--Contrast with--
If we implemented Crazy's plan as proposed this is how I see it turning out:
Crazy evicted and flips town. Noms KMD. KMD noms Pablito + Kast. BV votes Pablito, Hewitt votes Kast, KMD tie breaks and evicts Pablito. Pablito flips town and selects Kast as HoH. Kast noms Hewitt (and probably KMD since KMD might be unwilling to vote Hewitt over BV). Hewitt flips Producer and picks one of BV, Kast, or KMD (more likely Hewitt doesn't care and lets mod randomly select). If Kast is picked, BV is evicted, last Chenbot is dead, town wins. If KMD is picked, Kast is evicted, town loses, BV the Chenbot wins. If BV is picked, Chenbots win.

The plan is likely to result in a 1/3 town win and 2/3 Chenbot win. Not so ideal.

[Kast]

@Crazy-
I think KMD is wrong. But his insistence that specific players are obvtown/confirmed town/whatever, on reasons that only he sees is typical of his play as both town or scum. I'd wager it more likely town actually since I have seen him deviate from his strong opinions as scum when it would let him win; and in this game, a scum KMD could have easily jumped aboard with what Pablito and I suspect and coast for a guaranteed win. He hasn't done so which makes me less inclined to think he could be scum (although in general his play makes me think he is the most probable townie out of the lot of you).

Both have been attempting to delay the eviction of Snow Bunny for what seems like days in order to keep the heat on the Producers and off the Chenbots.

Logic fail. You fail to explain how wanting to evict Producers indicates that a player is not a townie. You fail to explain how wanting to and succeeding in lynching scum instead of lynching a townie is indicative of not being town. You fail to explain how pushing for and securing the lynch of a Chenbot indicates that a player is a probable Chenbot.

Complete lie. I never thought you were most likely scum until Snow was evicted and I never wanted you evicted in any of the situations you were on the block. That's such crap Kast, that is SUCH crap.

Seriously...the throwing tantrums is getting old. Wah wah you don't like what I posted then try refuting with arguments and references to actual posts instead of just whining.

And this whole game for Kast has been PRODUCER PRODUCER PRODUCER. Forget Chenbots, forget even attempting to scumhunt Chenbots and focus on Producers.

Hewitt conveniently ignores the entirety of my posts from the time I replaced until two of the three Chenbots died off. Typical of the rest of his play; ignoring the actual post record and instead looking only at made up posts in his fantasyland world.

Every single eviction that Kmd has been HoH I was seriously unhappy with the nominations. Granted he was correct about Llama but I didn't think he was at the time,

Consider that you are not as good at catching scum as you think you are.

[Kast]

@Hewitt-
-You again fail to show why a townie would not try to lynch Producers when there are 3 Producers and only one Chenbot. You also continue to fail at addressing how catching and pushing for a lynch of Sly (Chenbot) is indicative of being a Chenbot or at all compatible with your claim that Chenbots were ignored.



-I didn't lie. When I asked you to show even a single instance of lying, you

directly lied

claimed you posted something in your

opening post

, then proceeded to post a quote from D2 that

contradicted

your position from D1.

Until you start referring to this actual game and actual events from this game, instead of making up posts and ignoring the actual quotes and links back to real post history, then there really isn't any way to address your fantasies.

-It isn't very hard to understand. Your "case" against KMD is that KMD put up so many "pro-town players" for eviction that you disagreed with. This is a crap-logic argument that boils down to "I disagree with you so you must be scum" and "I can't understand that, so it can't be true". Your position is arrogant and irrational.

In case that is too hard for you to understand:
You have a weak case built on crap-logic.

@Pablito-
Hewitt knew his buddy was going to swing. It should throw a flag that he was defending Llama and claiming that Llama was probably a townie, but chose to vote for him anyway. He defended his buddy, but when he realized Llama would swing anyway, he abandoned his stated beliefs, and bussed Llama to distance himself and get some town cred for being on a scum-wagon.

[Kast]

Why do you think he's wrong?

Do you know what game he's referring to?

I don't know what game KMD is referring to.

When I say I think he is wrong, it has nothing to do with his meta judgment. Based on all information available in this game, Saber/BV looks like the most probable remaining Chenbot.

KMD concludes that BV is nigh confirmed town. My conclusion differs. I think his conclusion is wrong.

If he presents any information that can guarantee or strongly indicate BV's affiliation, then great. Until then, it's bad play to just accept that KMD being probable town means KMD is more likely to be correct about a meta read.

[Kast]

As I see it, Kmd has information about bv/saber's alignment that I don't... and there's really no motive for him to be lying about it. So why would you choose to ignore it?

Whether or not KMD is lying has nothing to do with my point. I assumed it would be clear since I have repeatedly stated I think he is a townie, but since it wasn't

I don't think he is lying

. He probably genuinely believes BV is nigh confirmed town.

He is probably still wrong. Townies are wrong all the time (games would have no point if that were not the case). Unless he has mod confirmed information (ie. cop investigation), then KMD being a townie has almost no bearing on whether his belief is correct. He doesn't have anything anywhere close to that.

What he has is meta information. Meta can be useful, but is hardly a sure thing. Without being able to review it myself, I'm not going to blindly follow someone else's conclusions from a meta read.

[Kast]

BV is and has been my top suspect for the remaining Chenbot. You've even admitted that all of your reasons for suspecting me apply at least equally well to BV.

I guess it is possible you Chen setting up for my lynch after BV goes down. If Hewitt swings today, we should be fine anyway. We will have 3 lynches to sort through BV, Crazy, and Kast with Pablito and KMD as nigh-confirmed town.

[Kast]

@Crazy-
You should check this for yourself, but KMD's normal meta is to say people he suspects are confirmed even when they aren't. That's just what he normally does. I've referred to this previously. He frequently makes decisions and then acts on them regardless of what other players think/say. One thing to note is that he usually sticks hard to his personal suspicions as town, even when nobody else agrees with him. He usually does this also as scum, but occasionally he will depart from his suspects if he thinks he has a chance to flat out win by doing so.

[Kast]

Enjoy your weekends all.

If Hewitt is nom'ed, consider my vote on him, I'll place it once I get back. Same for BV if Hewitt is not nom'ed.

[Kast]

@Hewitt-
Good to see you finally realize and admit your loss. All the name calling and intentionally being a jerk earlier really wasn't appropriate.

Vote: Hewitt

It was unfortunate for you that AM and SensFan tied themselves together, but that alone wouldn't have caught you. What was much more damning was your unreasonable fear of the Coup and the completely irrational attack on me while at the same time claiming you weren't suspicious of me. When Llama abandoned his position to agree with you and defend you, that could have helped, but Llama's flip just cemented you as scum.

@Mod-

With 3 more lynches and only 3 potentially scum candidates remaining, do we have to play it out or can we just call the game now?

[Kast]

Also, the site is extremely slow...

[Kast]

BV is the most probable remaining Chenbot. Sly's behavior regarding Saber makes no sense otherwise. The only defense against it so far has been "that's too obvious", but as we can see from the Producers, scum are capable of being very obvious.

After BV, I would guess Crazy.

KMD and Pablito are both OBV town.

If BV and Crazy are both town, I'll assume you guys will lynch me, which is fine with me since we won't get there.

My assumption is that Hewitt is hoping for a town loss by adding KMD to the mix. With only 3 lynches, adding KMD to the pool of potential remaining Chenbots means one of the 3 candidates gets out. I would guess he thinks Crazy is the last remaining Chenbot (possible, but much less likely than BV).

It is probably fine to lynch me since I assume Kast flipping town would make KMD realize that BV is the last Chenbot. IF KMD still refuses to lynch KMD even after I flip town, then it would be better to lynch KMD since I will vote or nom BV.

Aside from that, I was right about Sly, AM, Llama, and Hewitt. I'm 4/4 with picks so far and I knocked that Coup out of the park. You'll find in most games, I'm hesitant when I don't have a strong suspect, and I come down hard when I am right. I'm coming down on BV now, just like the 4 scum before him.

[Kast]

@Crazy-
-Comparison of Saber and Zwet is nowhere near the same. Sly's number one pick as scum was Saber. This was constant until he finally made nominations and suddenly dropped his top pick with practically no reason.

Every suspect after Saber was wishy-washy and depended on what town as a whole posted; AM and Zwet were alternated several times as potential second choices, but both were well below the attention on Saber.

-Hewitt was a producer. He tried to buddy with me early, and when I called him on it he became extremely rude and began making irrational, AtE attacks on me. Hindsight is 20/20, it should be obvious now that he was just trying to discredit me since I had correctly named his entire team.

But then again it really wouldn't matter since only Kmd or me would be able to vote, and we'd most likely vote to evict each other over bv.

If I'm evicted in the Final Four, then I'd make bv HoH in hopes that he'd evict Kmd over pablito.

I don't want to lynch bv when Kmd says that he is confirmed town.

You realize this makes absolutely ZERO sense, yes?
You only trust BV as a result of trusting KMD. HOWEVER, you would rather lynch KMD over BV?

This stinks of a ploy to get Kast/KMD/BV lynched for a Crazy-Chenbot win.

-The last parts are provided as "defense" since Pablito requested one. There really isn't much defense I can give since there really isn't any "case" against me other than Hewitt's crying that I caught him. It shows that I have been effectively scumhunting and contributing to the town. It also points out that given KMD's and Crazy's irrational aversions to lynching BV (who is the most probable remaining scum), Pablito may want to vote in a manner that allows for BV's lynch (for that matter, if you are town, you should re-evaluate your confidence in KMD's pronunciation about BV).

If BV is scum, then it looks like things will go like this:
Kast lynched, Pablito HoH
Crazy lynched, BV or KMD HoH
Even if Crazy realizes that BV is probable scum after Kast flips town, it will be too late since Pablito cannot be HoH twice in a row, and KMD or BV would both keep BV alive.
Town loss

[Kast]

@Crazy-

It doesn't make sense for Kmd-scum to lie about bv being confirmed, because then someone could probably figure out he was lying if they researched enough. And imagine taking that risk for someone that's not even on your scum-team!

KMD-scum would know that BV is town. There is no risk. The rest of your "case" requires this.

(Kast, if you're that worried that bv is scum, just make Kmd HoH instead of pablito when you die. That would solve the problem of "pablito-can't-be-HoH-twice-in-a-row.")

KMD HoH noms Pablito and Crazy. BV votes Pablito. How is that a solution?

However, Mod's clarification is reassuring.

[Kast]

it would be someone searching through past games and then being able to say, "Kmd, you're totally lying; there's no possible game to confirm saber/bv!"

Try reading that one again. I'll let you pretend you never posted something so mind bogglingly senseless.

[Kast]

Try again.

[Kast]

@Crazy-
I provided a response to your argument:

I trust bv as a result of trusting Kmd's judgment, not of trusting Kmd's alignment.

It doesn't make sense for Kmd-scum to lie about bv being confirmed, because then someone could probably figure out he was lying if they researched enough. And imagine taking that risk for someone that's not even on your scum-team! Ridiculous.

I am trusting; however, in Kmd's confidence in that bv is town.

You begin with the claim that you trust BV as a result of trusting KMD's judgment and not his alignment.
You defend this point by arguing that KMD would never state trust of BV if KMD was scum.
You conclude that since KMD did state trust of BV, then you trust BV.

This is a flawed argument and I pointed out the flaw (KMD scum might state trust of BV).

It also isn't actually an argument for why KMD-town would be correct about BV.

-You have previously questioned KMD's judgment about BV after hearing KMD's reason for trusting Hewitt. You also expressed doubt about KMD's judgment in each instance that he shared it. I don't see any explanation for why you have confidence that his unshared meta judgments are any more reliable than all his other ones that you have already disagreed with.

[Kast]

@Pablito-
It's mostly meta-read on KMD. He is playing as he does as town. He had some opportunities that he could have capitalized on as scum (and I would expect he would have as scum), but did not.

I don't really have any idea how BV plans to vote since BV has been pretty quiet on his suspects in general.

If he is scum, then obviously self preservation says he should vote me. If he is town, then that's a lot less certain. I haven't heard his opinion of me, but he was previously suspicious of KMD.

If BV votes for KMD, then my guess is KMD picks BV as next HoH. After that, it's completely up in the air due to BV not really expressing his thoughts. I'm leaning to BV picks Kast and Pablito, letting Crazy evict Kast. At that point I could pick Pablito to evict BV. If BV is scum, town win, if Crazy is scum, town lose.

If that is how BV will actually play, then I'm willing to take that gamble (but then again, BV as town probably wouldn't take that since he should prefer Kast and Crazy being lynched).

[Kast]

@BV-
It would be nice to hear what you think regarding myself, KMD, and Crazy.

[Kast]

@KMD-
That's pretty compelling evidence.

@Crazy-
You posted an argument that KMD as scum would never say BV is town. This was in parallel with claiming that KMD as town would be trustworthy.

The former claim was false and I showed that it was false. This does not have anything to do with whether I believed KMD was actually lying or not.

[Kast]

@Crazy-

I especially love how my wild guess Day 3 about Kast being a Chenbot was awesome

You had a really good read. I noted the same thing on reading through before agreeing to replace in, then made sure to cut that part out when I posted my initial notes. The key difference between Zwet and Saber was that Saber had been "dropped" on the initial nomination and never considered again. Zwet's was still

supposedly

under consideration, but was not picked anyway.

@Sly-
I definitely think you should have run with the saberwolf mislynch rather than get the town upset with you on D1. I can see your thoughts, but it was a bit ambitious and it ended up blowing up on you.

This game format really needs scum to have at least one partner or they get screwed in endgame. Even then, we would probably have been fine if Sironigous didn't get himself modkilled.

@KMD-
If saber had not claimed to be town in that other game, would you have trusted him in this one?

@Mod-
Thanks for the game. Some thoughts:
-Coup and PoV were not so powerful as to require mid-game nerfs. The nerfs were only necessary due to players getting modkilled, but a modkill is

supposed

to penalize your team. The argument that Coup allows a scum team to win isn't accurate; even without the modkills, Coup allows a scum team to win if they play well.
-Saber should have been modkilled when he was banned. He essentially spoke with (all) other players about his alignment in his ongoing game. Even if there was a possibility of lying, it's still a direct rules violation of

The game is not to be discussed outside of the thread.

Though since you didn't know why he was banned, I can understand your decision to go with a replacement.
-The Coup was a really interesting mechanic. Could you post the different guesses that were made?

GG all.

[Kast]

@Pablito-
If BV had not been confirmed by KMD's quote, would you have voted the same way?

[Kast]

@Llama & Hewitt-
AM and SF did really hurt your team by creating early and obvious ties. But both of your extreme overreactions to the Coup was probably the main thing that eventually got you both caught.

[Kast]

I just was in trouble from the start in this one, since my scum play heavily hinges on being able to make NKs to keep the game going in directions I like, even if im not killing the most pro-town people, just the ones that will prove to be threats.

Strong agreement. This is even more pronounced with a single surviving scum.