A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Mina]

Vote: MacavityLock

. He's the serial killer, even if his role PM says otherwise.

Hey, guys! I have an awesome idea. We should have a mass nameclaim today! That will totally catch all the scum, by...um, forcing them to use their fake claims. I mean, the one who suggested that plan in

A Game of Thrones

Mafia went on to win the game, so it will be a total success.

*coughs*

[Mina]

Uh...

Fakeclaims are given to scum specifically to counter something like what you suggest.
Early blip on the scumdar.

It was a joke. In the mini prequel to this game (

A Game of Thrones

), the player who proposed the nameclaim was my scumbuddy then. It was a disaster for the town that distracted them all game.

So nameclaiming = bad.

[Mina]

Aak, sorry for neglecting this game. Double sorry for the wall. I would've divided this into several posts, but the forum isn't loading. Just to warn people who haven't played with me...um, sometimes I'm a little verbose. To put it mildly.

I-More Longwinded Speculation on Raising

Everyone raising themselves makes me want to paraphrase

The Incredibles

: when everyone is special, that means no one is.

FOS: vezhoweveryournameisspelled

, for giving the most horrendous advice of the game on raising. Leaving aside the points other players brought up (obv-townies being NK'd anyway, DV<Cop, doctor protect, etc.), look at the risk. At worst, a town Hand might be killed on N1, costing us nothing. A scum Hand can insta-win the game in LYLO or MYLO.

In other words,

if we elect a scum Hand, we lose a lynch.

We are definitely not choosing a Hand randomly.

-------------------------

II-Vague Impressions

Richard is digging himself into a deeper hole with every post (and it will be FUN to hear him wheedle out of the meta catch), but six or seven players are on it. I'd rather not parrot them.

I've heard CMAR's town play characterized as overeager and trying too hard to please. (Secondhand meta in an ongoing game, so take it for what it's worth.) That makes me think his contract is a towntell.

---------------------------

III-

Badgering

Questions to Specific Players

1)

MagnaofIllusion

, did you vote SSBF

because you thought SSBF was more likely to be scum

for meta-ing you, or because you wanted to protest against meta?

2)

Vote: Migwelloni

, not because of the self-vote, but because if you're going to lampshade the fact that you've missed the joke phase, you'd better respond to the serious one. Give us a suspect/case/opinion/question/llama/anything. Now.

3)

Paranoia

, who do you find more suspicious--MacavityLock or MagnaofIllusion? Also, why are you "waiting to see more from Richard"? Haven't we already heard enough from Richard for you to read him?

------------------------------
There was more interesting stuff, but I'll save it for tomorrow because I'm exhausted.

[Mina]

vezopiraka, believe me. There is no chance whatsoever that you'll be voted Hand of the King today.

This is ridiculous. It's as though Richard and vezopiraka are jumping up and down on the table and screaming, "Lynch me! Please, please lynch me!" They are like caricatures of VIs.

I think Cmar is scum. Will post a case sometime soon

I play like this.
I do scumhunting when I get a good read on someone. Right now richard seems the scummiest but I don't have a case on him yet

These posts are an hour and a half apart. What changed since then? AND YOUR VOTE IS STILL ON CMAR! Do you just suspect the players with the largest wagons on them? *headdesk*

------------------------
1) CCARaven04, do you suspect SSBF more than vezopiraka? Also, why the hell are you still raising Richard considering you say you find him scummy?

2)

@Drip: It's hard to analyse stuff when there have only been RVS posts that will most likely not affect the game in any way.

Haha, wrong. There's all sorts of tasty stuff to analyze so far.

@CMAR: I find it pretty hilarious that you have a "genuine scum read" on me when we're only on Page 3 and nothing has even happened yet. If you have actual reasons, I'd like to see them. Otherwise, stop trolling.

Stuff has happened, and you playing this off like it's trolling is scum-mojo.[/quote]I agree that Richard's refusal to acknowledge the serious phase is scummy (as is pretty much everything else he's done all game)...but in that post (your third of the game) you don't really comment on any of that tasty stuff (other than halfheartedly supporting Drippereth's Deer case). What tasty stuff in particular were you referring to that Richard should have commented on? Something about these points rubbed my gut the wrong way.

3) Just realized that the post I FOSed for last night (the site was loading too slowly for me to scroll back) was LynchMePlz's, not vezopiraka's (although vez's point about electing the lynchee was horrible, too):

I'm still trying to figure out the impact of the raising a hand mechanic on the game. If we always vote for who we think is most town, we make NKs much easier for the scum. On the other hand, we certainly don't want scum double voters. I'm wondering if we wouldn't be better off casting our raise votes with a random number generator or abstaining from raising a hand at all. I really like the idea from a fluff perspective. Those who are raised to Hand probably won't last very long, which is very fitting.

4) I agree with this:

And is this "oh 3 now" suppose to scare me...like asking you to rephrase scummy positions could possibly be interpreted as scummy, give me a fucking break, play better.

¯\(°_o)/¯

By "oh 3 now" I didn't mean

you

... Why did you assume I meant YOU? I was referring to vez.

But your feeling targeted is a slight scumtell.

Benmage has been rubbing me the wrong way all game. He comes across opportunistic in his CMAR attacks (if you reread him in ISO, he makes fun of CMAR for his "contract" and attacks it as a bad idea, but doesn't seem to really believe that CMAR is scum) and overdefensive to the slightest bit of criticism.

5)

Still, I'm not too hot for CMAR's

townleading

and overall petulance.

(emphasis mine)
I expect that kind of comment from Richard, but not from you, Percy. Do you think "townleading" is a scumtell? I've always treated it as a towntell.

6) Hey, Deer! So now that Drippereth has let the wagon on you go, any thoughts? You were plenty talkative before in your defense. Since the wagon has derailed, you haven't had much to say.
----------
Right now I have ideas on whom to raise, but I'm going to wait a bit. Unlike casual voting (which puts pressure on people), raising just kisses up to them and makes them feel safe.

Have to go now.

[Mina]

EBWOP: #2 was addressed to MacavityLock.

FOS: danakillsu

, for sheeping the crowd both with his vote and with his raise.

For the record, if people raise Axelrod, can it be for his actual cases and suspicions, and not because you agreed with one point he made about raising? I have no problems with Axelrod so far (although there are players I trust more). But that post alone is a very shallow reason to trust someone. Scum are just as capable as innocents of writing a reasonable post that essentially says, "I don't think we should worry too much about raising."

[Mina]

I disagree with danakillsu and Rivka on raising. I'd rather give a double-vote to a mediocre townie than smart scum. Smart scum is the kind most likely to stay alive to LYLO/MYLO and lose the town a lynch. IMO, we should raise players who are most likely to be town, not players who sound reasonable.

[Mina]

EBWOP: to clarify, being reasonable is obviously an asset in a Hand. Not saying we should Raise total idiots. I just think we should err on the side of the player who's more townish rather than more intelligent.

[Mina]

@mina So you want us to raise someone who is not mediocre. But not too smart, cause you don't want smart scum with double vote. That seems like a pretty tough needle to thread on D1.

EBWOP: to clarify, being reasonable is obviously an asset in a Hand. Not saying we should Raise total idiots

Obviously, there's no intelligence limit to being Hand. If you have two obvtown players, then raise the one who you trust to use the double-vote wisely. I'm just saying we shouldn't be going, "This guy made a reasonable post about theory on page 2! Raise him!"

(Whoops, that was you and not Rivka who agreed with dana. Your avatars are too similar.)

Raven, you never answered my other question:

1) CCARaven04, do you suspect SSBF more than vezopiraka?

Now I have to go.

[Mina]

Sorry, this post is really scattershot and rambling. It's four in the morning and I have work tomorrow. I'll answer Benmage tomorrow evening/night when I get home (because that requires actual cogitation as I try to figure out if his posts really were opportunistic or I just imagined it).

1)

Benmage

, do you think CMAR is scum, or do you just think his contract is a stupid idea?
------------------
2)

Richard

, you never answered Drippereth's questions. Who are the lurkers, and what are your reads on non-lurkers?
------------------
3)

Migwelloni,

I'm still waiting for that llama.
------------------
4)

vezopiraka,

you still never answered my first question in this post. (That second quote is yours, not CMAR's.)
---------------------
5)

@Cow:

if you weren't paying attention, I explained the nameclaiming joke two posts down. It's a reference to Faraday's

A Game of Thrones

mini, which had a few of the same players. Re: townleading, I see where Percy (funny, his read on Richard is pretty much the same as mine on CMAR) is coming from more than you. When I think of townleading, I think of vocal players who are very active and engaged, play assertively, lead lynches, and try to solve the game. Accusing someone of being scum for "leading the town" (read: playing well) is one of my absolute worst pet peeves.

Also, you realize that Unsight's point was that people

can

change their mind over three months, right?
-----------------------
6) Speaking of lurkers, I also saw

Paranoia

visible in the Theme Park this evening. He still hasn't answered my questions. His post FOS-ing ML and MoI and fencesitting on Richard was terrible.
-----------------------
7)

MacavityLock,

fair enough. I just thought it was a little easy to lecture someone for not responding to the serious stage without stating what in particular was worth responding to.
-----------------------
8)

LynchMePls

:

I agree completely with Percy's 213. I also think his case on Hayker is pretty good. I'd like to hear a response.

Hmm.

So you agree with Percy's defence of Richard, attack of Hayker, and suspicions of CMAR in 213? Are there any points of his you disagree with?
---------------------
9)

Super Smash Bros. Fan

, I'd have felt much better about you if you'd stood your ground when Dripp asked you why you had no read on Richard. Instead you quickly tried to appease them, by saying "Yes, now that you mention it, I've just seen the light on that scummy scumbag!" Furthermore, you copied

vezopiraka

's reasoning for suddenly suspecting Richard. If anything, I read that Richard post as mildly townish. (It reminds me of a time a town VI-ish player I was hounding snapped back with "can you just leave me alone and find actual scum?")

[Mina]

vezopiraka, it's a good idea to share your suspects even if you think no one will listen to you. This way, we can tell by your reasoning if you're town. Besides, your suspects might give themselves away by how they react to your cases.

Aside from CMAR and Richard, who else do you suspect?

[Mina]

Sorry, LynchMePlz. I mixed up 200 and 213. My next post was going to be, "HAHA, caught you flipflopping on Richard!" but the error is on my end.

[Mina]

Sorry, guys. I tried to write a post last night, but my Internet kept timing out every few minutes and finally died.

It seems to be working again, but I'll first post what I was working on last night (the quick stuff I didn't need to reread to say). My Internet is starting to get screwy again. I need to reread to make sure I'm remembering the facts correctly before I say stuff to LynchMePls, Drippereth, Benmage, and SSBF.

1) Welcome to the game, Raivann.

2) Richard, since I think we're allowed to discuss the structure of role PMs, in what section of your role PM does it say the part about Loras getting an extra kill? In the flavour text?

Mods: say something if you think this question is inappropriate.

~ I've no problem with this particular question, but would urge caution when discussing role pm's and things of that nature, preferably make sure your question is ok before you ask it as I'd obviously not want anyone to start quoting parts of pm's or anything.

Either way, this claim makes you look better, because if no one flips or claim Loras (or the person claiming Loras flips scum and something different), you'll be screwed.

3) That quick pile-up on Richard was horrible. I'd like to nuke the tail end of that wagon. Also, I'm annoyed with some of the argumentation in this thread. Putting someone at L-1 and trying to force a claim so early in a twenty-six player game is antitown, IMO. Taking steps to avoid a quicklynch or premature claim (although dana apparently wanted a claim) is protown. Scum sometimes do protown things and town antitown things, but this stupid black-is-white logic of ''He did something that makes him look town, therefore he must be scum!'' drives me crazy. As town, I've been suspected for asking people to unvote when someone was put at L-2 at the start of the game. As scum, I've gone uncalled on blatantly stating in the thread that I was impatient for people to put someone at L-1 and force a claim out of him.

4)

Wouldn't it be better for everyone if you stopped pretending to be a newbie?

Um...you realize that dana is saying in that quote he doesn't have experience

with Kleedrac

and not with the game overall? After days of not posting, that throwaway line in a post of a player you're not even voting is the only thing you thought was worth commenting on?

You know what, I'm going to try something different.

Vote: Unsight

. You seem like you're trying to look active, but you're just picking at minor points.

Need to reread Hayker and Kleedrac to make up my mind on them. I can see why they're getting votes, but I can't tell if they're scummy or just inexperienced or poor debaters.

Mikujin and Migwelloni are both interchangeably horrible, but it's impossible to read people who show as little respect for other players as to post nothing but jokes and crap bandwagon hops when people are asking you for content.

Faraday, did they ever send you links to completed games off-site?

(Yes. I'm pretty much asking this because I'm hoping they didn't and I want them out of this game. I'm a sweetheart like that.)

~ Players who hadn't previous experience on this site were allowed play after PM conversations with me, as such they'd not be in the game if they'd not pm'd me with links/relevant info.

5) I no longer have a town read on CMAR because of that horrible post to Axelrod and that softclaim. I have no clue what to make of him right now.

6) Percy: do you still like that raise on xvart?

7) MagnaofIllusion: I'm sorry if I misread you, but what points in particular did Axelrod make (other than the raising one, which was kind of safe since several people had said they liked that point) that you found were reasonable? IIRC, he hadn't said much yet at that point in time. You didn't mention what else you found reasonable. So it seemed as though you were raising Axelrod for being "the most reasonable player other than myself" purely because of his stance on raises.

My comment was also directed at this:

Also, I kind of like the idea of just raising someone who knows what they are doing, so

unraise raise: Axelrod

(Not that I think Lynch doesn't know what he's doing, but Axelrod, I think, is a little bit better)

Since no one had said much about Axel other than agreeing with his stance on raises, this kind of reads as, "People have said Axelrod is right about raises, so let's raise him."

Again, nothing against Axelrod. Not trying to cast doubt on him. But at that point, there wasn't enough to get a decent read of his alignment. I thought I should warn those jumping to raise him purely because they agreed with one sensible opinion of his to be more cautious. Also, he wasn't my horse in the race. (I can reveal the players I'm considering raising now if people really want to know, but I think it's more informative if I wait a little.)

---------

To be honest, I don't have a strong read on this game yet. I feel as though clumps of players all fit into general profiles (the wagon-hopping lurkers, the non-voting lurkers, the active players, the quiet reasonable ones, the overreacting hot-tempered VIs), but I can't discriminate between the fine details. And I have a feeling there are scum are among the more reasonable players who haven't slipped up yet.

[Mina]

Aaaaah, I'm falling further and further behind on this game. Sorry for not contributing more. I've been checking the thread, but I keep on starting huge rambling posts in response to all I've missed, getting distracted, and finally giving up at one or two AM and falling asleep. It's taking all my willpower not to crawl into bed right now.

Screw this. There was more I wanted to comment on (still haven't said what I wanted to say to SSBF and LynchMePls, and Raivann and Cow have caught my attention). But I'll just post what I have for now. I'm most likely going to move my vote tomorrow when I'm more coherent.

---------------------------
1) To be honest, I'm really not liking some of the reasoning people are throwing around. I feel as though some people are latching onto easy surface tells and following the crowd. Meh, I shouldn't talk, given what a craptastic game I'm playing. I'm going to do a huge reread tomorrow, because I haven't synthesized most of the information in this thread.

2) It occurred to me that Mikujin's sudden jump in play-level might be to stave off the wagon on him, but other than that I've liked his recent posts. I'm glad to see that I misjudged him. Kleedrac is...meh. Not sure what to make of him. He came across as a little histrionic and phony in his CMAR case. That said, maybe I'm just a sucker for AtEs, but I can believe his explosion under pressure is coming from inexperienced town. It sounded very genuine. I suppose he could also be frustrated scum annoyed by the case on him, but...again, meh. I'm not quite sold on the Kleedrac wagon. (Yes, I know I'll be called confirmed scum if Kleedrac flips town. :p But those are my wishy-washy thoughts.)

3) Remind me to pay attention to how people react to vezopiraka when I do my full reread tomorrow. I find it really weird how vezo is so blatantly jumping on every single bandwagon regardless of its merit and inconsistent in all his reads, and yet seems to have a lot of defenders. Is he such an easy target that even scum think they'll look bad attacking him?

4)

]

@Mina

: You said you'd like to nuke the "tail end" of the wagon, and I do sympathise, but what do you think of the players who actually provided reasons for contributing to the Richard wagon?

I'll answer your bandwagon question in more detail when I reread the thread tomorrow. Are you looking for a wagon-analysis post along the lines of what SSBF did? Before the dana-vezo-Deer-ani-Mikujin-Migwelloni pile-up, I was sympathetic to the case on Richard, and remember looking at the vote count and explicitly thinking that for a wagon that seemed to rack up so many quick votes, it did look town-driven judging by the people on it.

Percy,

to cure my last vestiges of paranoia about the soon-to-be Hand,

do you have links to any recent scum games you've played?

5)

@I doubt it First are you an alt? If you are not, here’s some initial sincere advice: this game is out of your league and you should seek to be replaced asap and join a newbie game. Moreover regardless of alignment you are probably going to be lynched soon because Oh My God U Suck, pissing off whichever people/side you are on.

Again, please replace out. I’d usually hate to advocate such things as replacing out itself hinders a game and can be a pain for the mod…but the mod should’ve had stricter restrictions on those allowed to sign up. It is in your best and the games best interest. Despite other peoples excessive PTW mentality I enjoy a challenge and beating talent, not a cast of VI’s. If you don’t I’ll probably be forced to do a massive(sarcasm) 5(6) post PBPA of you to get your worthless ass lynched and out of the way.

I'm no saint myself, but I loathe this kind of passive-aggressive bullying. If you think I doubt it's case was so embarrassingly bad that he shouldn't be allowed to play Mafia here, then why did you need a wall devoted almost exclusively to defending yourself from it? And why not let your defence speak for itself?

To explain my "opportunism" charge from before...perhaps "opportunism" was the wrong word. Your initial vote on CMAR was in response to him ending the RVS. But then you left your vote on him well into the serious phase, when people were starting to take stands on actual bandwagons. (Mind you, you eventually moved your vote to Drippereth, who had no votes, so that makes you lessopportunistic.)

Now you've admitted you never suspected him at the time, but afterward you think he's scummy. Fair enough. Do you suspect CMAR just because he was sucking up to Axelrod? Any other reasons? At what precise point in time did you first start thinking CMAR might be scum?

6)

I kinda agree with 479...is that really an unacceptable level of personal attack or the truth?

Rivka, I assume you still suspect Benmage, since you've been sniping at him all day. Do you disagree with I doubt it's case on him, but suspect Benmage for other reasons?

[Mina]

Welcome to all the replacements.

I have to leave for work now, so I'll post something more substantial (including the bandwagon analysis for Percy) later this evening.

Unvote

To be honest, my initial vote on Unsight was more to get a reaction from him. I disagree with a lot of what he's saying (for example, I think the SSBF-MacavityLock and Drippereth-Percy links are a little tinfoil hat), but his recent play is coming off as townish. And it turns out I misinterpreted his initial point against danakillsu, anyway.

Vote: Raivann

I'll go into more details later.
---
Benmage: I see you responded to MagnaofIllusion's questions to you. I understand that my post #486 was huge and you might have missed that I also mentioned you, but could I get a little reaction to point #5?

[Mina]

Rivka, why isn't your vote on Raivann?

And I would be very interested in the answer to this question:

I kinda agree with 479...is that really an unacceptable level of personal attack or the truth?

Rivka, I assume you still suspect Benmage, since you've been sniping at him all day. Do you disagree with I doubt it's case on him, but suspect Benmage for other reasons?[/quote]
This isn't just one of those "poking at random" or "try to get people talking" questions. Your answer to this will say a lot. And I mean

a lot

.

If Benmage was one of your top suspects earlier on (and I don't think you ever gave a reason for dropping your pursuit of him), then why are you making fun of someone for doing a case on him? If you wanted to single out the player in this game who's made the dumbest arguments and been the most anti-town, I certainly wouldn't choose I doubt it. So it seems to be his Benmage case that bothers you.

So answer this. Do you disagree with I doubt it's case on Benmage, but dislike it for other reasons? Is there something I doubt it has done that makes him look scummy/inexperienced to you? Is it because you heard SSBF, Drippereth, and Benmage say his case was bad, so you're just sheeping along? Are you just trying to be "one of the cool kids, LOL!" and join in with making fun of another player without getting your own hands dirty? Or is there a reason you dropped your suspicion of Benmage? I want you to explain, in detail, just why you think your case on Benmage is better than I doubt it's.

Also, Benmage, why was I doubt it's case on you worse that Rivka Viveka's? Or hell, than

mine

? (I mean, even I think my earlier suspicions of you were pretty much just bad vibes.) You've actually been really, really agreeable with me considering I accused you of passive aggressive bullying. (You come across as the type of player who'd get riled up by something like that.) You also seem pretty polite with Rivka. But you're telling I doubt it to replace out of the game because his case is so bad?

[Mina]

EBWOP:

1) I fail at quotes.

2) I mean, "Do you disagree with I doubt it's case on Benmage, but dislike

Benmage

for other reasons?"

[Mina]

Waiting on Rivka and Benmage.

I have to leave for work now, but here's the post I was working on Monday before the forum went down:

Welcome, julienvonwolfe and Kinetic. This is like a huge Mini 926 reunion! Since Seacore's modding, all we're missing is Confucius, Buttonmen, Heliograph, and Inquisition.

Wow. I'd started explaining in more detail just why I voted for Raivann Sunday night--before my brother stole the computer while I was in the shower and I fell asleep. (To summarize, it was the flip-flop on Kleedrac combined with his poorly rationalized jump on Richard--see below.) But, um...Raivann seems to be doing a good job of that himself now.

Sorry I read Dana's post wrong, I'm buzzing pretty good right now.

I wonder if this explains a lot.

Has anyone played with him? If so, is this play style normal?

Not in the slightest. In the GoT mini, he made an effort to scumhunt, reread the thread and looked beyond the surface, pressured people, and came off as fairly genuine. His play was a little erratic, particularly right before his lynch on D2 (which also might have been alcohol-induced), but nowhere close to this bad. He certainly wasn't jumping on easy bandwagons and flip-flopping on suspects. I might be biased because I was scum in that game, though. Maybe you should ask Percy, Locke Lamora, or MacavityLock, since they suspected him in the mini.

I would rather we lynch Richard, but it doesn't seem to be going that way, so I hopped on popular wagon. Do I believe we have better chance of hiting scum with Richard lynch? Yes. But I'll go with the flow D1.

But it's a popular wagon

on a player you thought was town

.

When you'd joined, we had a couple of weeks until the deadline--certainly not compromise lynch time. You should have been trying to catch up and give us your thoughts on everything you've missed. It wasn't too late to push a wagon on a player you suspect. But when you moved your vote to Kleedrac, you hadn't given us opinions on anyone other than Richard (you suspect him, but you won't say why) and Kleedrac (you believe his outburst, but you're still voting for him).

Please answer Locke's question:

Raivann: so do you still think Kleedrac's frustration is legitimate townie or not?

I was Jon Snow in the mini and fakeclaimed I could get 1 kill with my Direwolf.

1) You were Robb Stark in the mini, VANILLA TOWNIE, and just fake-claimed having a daykill right before your lynch to get reactions,
2) Even if I'd ask

what the hell you pretending to have a daykill

has to do with the likelihood of a one-shot vig whose power is activated by another player's death,
3) here's an interesting post by Faraday, in the graveyard QT, WHICH YOU READ:

Ah, the set-up isn't anything overly complex. As I said I think I Op'd the scum a little but lesson learned for next time...Shoulda given raivann a daykill w/ the flavour he claimed maybe

Faraday was also considering having a vengeful townie in AGoT.

(I actually do think that there's a chance that Richard's role is fake, since the roles in the mini were a lot more conventional and had titles like Vigilante/Double-Voter/Doctor. And Richard never answered my question about his PM structure. But either way, it's a claim that's very easily provable or disprovable later on--particularly if it turns out that the Tyrells/Baratheons are a scum faction.

Actually...I can't believe I'm advocating nameclaiming, but if someone is town-aligned and has a character name related to the Baratheons/Tyrells, it might be a good idea to claim it--

not your role

, just your character. Unless you're Loras, of course. Renly was a VT in AGoT, but multiple Mafia factions allied with each king's cause makes sense for ACoK.)

[quote="danakillsu]Um....
How about...
Raivann is actually posting? And Kleedrac has simply given up?[/quote]
Kleedrac is getting replaced, anyway, so this argument doesn't work.

Also, I would like to hear others' thoughts on my post that Raivann messed up on rather than their bashing of Raivann for messing up. I think the messing up part is a null tell, personally.

Sorry, which post are you talking about? Who's suspecting Raivann for "messing up"?

[Mina]

GAH, I HATE QUOTE TAGS! They are my nemeses!

[Mina]

SSBF: if you're interested, the link to Mini 926 is here. ISO Raivann and make up your own mind. He kind of imploded at the end of Day Two, but I don't think he was anywhere near this bad. And in an MD thread, Wickedjestr (however it's spelled) said Raivann was obvscum when they'd been scumbuddies.

I'm not particularly enamored of the Raiv wagon.

MacavityLock, you've played with Raivann before. Do you think this behaviour is characteristic for him?

LynchMePls, I've learned the hard way to avoid blatantly defending a player (because

I look like an idiot when that player flips scum

someone always accuses me of buddying or makes a trumped-up case linking me to the target of my defence). I won't pull a SSBF and do a quote-by-quote rebuttal of your case before Axelrod, CMAR, and Richard defend themselves.

But to be honest, I think that your Richard-Axelrod-CMAR case is very contrived. It gives me the impression that you picked and chose the evidence to fit your theory. This is the kind of case that makes me suspect the person who wrote it.

The Richard-CMAR connection in particular is extremely unlikely. Their early fight looked pretty heated, and you seem to have forgotten that Richard voted CMAR back. And you realize at the time Axelrod voted Hayker, not only had the Richard wagon been derailed, but the Kleedrac, SSBF, and CMAR wagons all had more votes on them than Hayker? So it's silly to use Axelrod voting Hayker as evidence he was diverting the wagon away from Richard. And why don't you have a problem with

Drippereth

unvoting Richard the instant they saw his claim?

Seriously, you're pushing a Richard lynch purely because you're so sure that you've found his scumbuddies based on such weak evidence? I think you could use similar evidence to link any player in the game to Richard.

(I'll be honest and say that I have a gut town read on Axelrod from his most recent posts. And for the five zillionth time, Richard's claim will be easily provable or disprovable when we massclaim. At this point, I'd be okay with a CMAR lynch purely because of the softclaim and horrible kissing up to Axelrod, but I'd rather look in other directions.)

[Mina]

You

had

to choose now to crawl out of the woodworks. I still haven't responded to Rivka (because she ignored that I point-blank said I WANT EXPLICIT DETAILS ON WHY HER CASE ON BENMAGE IS BETTER THAN I DOUBT IT's, because it should be very obvious where I'm heading with this line of inquiry). Or done that bandwagon analysis Percy's been pestering me about. Or explained from like weeks ago what I meant by SSBF "parroting" vezopiraka. I have to wake up in five hours.

Unvote, Vote:Richard
I should have unvoted dana earlier.
I never should have unvoted Richard either

Why shouldn't you have unvoted them? Because you're getting heat for it, or because {insert townish reason here}?

You're right Mina, maybe it's not too late especially after lynchmepls just made the best case in the game so far on him.

Are you saying LynchMePls' case is the best of the game because you agree with the Axelrod and CMAR connections? His case was based more on links than on Richard's behaviour (although he brought up a couple of decent points--e.g., the weird "Raivann knows who Ser Loras is" comment).

AND YOU NEVER EXPLAINED JUST WHY YOU FOUND RICHARD SCUMMY IN THE FIRST PLACE, DAMMIT!

I don't know Kleedracks alignment I know alot of others found him scummy and were asking for moar Kleedrac votes. My main point for thinking he was town was proven wrong.So I was following or going along. Another way to look at it is with all these players there has to some kind of consensus and teamwork.

My problem is that "consensus-building" is an easy way to avoid taking responsibility for your own choices. And the timing of your compromise was wrong. We were nowhere near the lynch deadline, and you're a replacement. You should be catching up on the game, not jumping onto the first wagon you see.

FoS:Mina I see a Richard/ Mina connection.

To be entirely honest, if I were reading this game from an outside POV, I'd buy a Richard/Mina connection more than a Richard/Axelrod or Richard/CMAR connection. Unlike Axelrod and CMAR, I didn't take a firm stand on Richard earlier on. That's why I think the links LynchMePls found in his case are so contrived.

(Mind you, I always look linked to group suspects. I've realized just now that I have a phobia of jumping onto popular wagons. This holds regardless of my alignment. If everyone suspects one player, I have to be contrary and suspect someone else. I feel like a sheep unless I'm one of the first three on a wagon. As a result, I think I've been subconsciously biased against the anti-Kleedrac surge. At least I fill a niche in the town.)

Hmm...

Raivann, here's a homework assignment for you. Choose four players, and write at least three sentences per player explaining why you suspect each one. So far, I feel your scumhunting hasn't been very thorough.

[Mina]

Actually, your response is coming off as pretty townish. And...that's kind of a good point about how you didn't need to unvote Kleedrac. (Mind you, now I'm concocting an elaborate Kleedrac-LynchMePls scumteam theory. At first, you didn't get the case on Kleedrac, right? But then you saw which way the winds were blowing, so you did a sudden turnaround and voted him, until you saw reluctance to lynch him and decided to make a last-ditch effort to save him with a huge case....someone please stop my overactive imagination.)

Maybe I just don't gel with your reasoning. I have the same problem with Unsight. Also, call me hypocritical, because I have another conspiracy theory brewing, but I don't like people voting solely on links before a single flip, particularly when the links are weak.

See, me nitpicking over why I don't think Richard and CMAR are scumbuddies is white noise that distracts from scumhunting. Here, I'll make this two posts. The first is pretty much irrelevant to anyone who isn't you. The second is of general interest to everyone, because it discusses my actual reads.

~~PART ONE: Skim This If You're Not LynchMePls~~

First off, you say you'll let them defend themselves, but then you still go on to post a lot in there defense anyways. That seems odd.

To be honest, the second and third paragraphs kind of grew and grew as I was writing that post...but hey, I resisted the urge to quote every single line and refute it. For me, that's restraint.

As for you point that the wagon had already derailed when Axelrod voted, that may be true, but it still doesn't refute all of the defensiveness from Axelrod to Richard and vice-versa.

FWIW, I actually thought those were the strongest links you'd spotted in your case. But I was trying to show where I thought you were twisting the facts, not do a point-by-point analysis of every argument.

If I'm correct, CMAR was bussing his partner day 1. This might be an explanation for the heated reaction from Richard, he might have been genuinely pissed.

You'd be better off arguing that CMAR and Richard are both scum, but on different teams. When there is genuine hostility between two players whose votes are on each other for most of the day while they're both in danger of a lynch, usually it's safe to assume the obvious. You are making WAY too many assumptions by saying that Richard is pissed off because of CMAR's bussing (which at that point hadn't got serious).

Dripp unvoted as well, but that's not the point. The point isn't that CMAR unvoted, after all, I did as well. Its the timing of it! Look at the time stamps, it's literally two minutes apart. That is not an exaggeration, it is LITERALLY two minutes apart. How can you see someone's claim, click the quote button, and post the unvote in two minutes, let alone even consider if you believe the claim. It was WAY too rushed, particularly in light of his attack on Richard.

Oh, really? Please explain to me how the instantaneous change between this and this is any different. Clearly, Dripp changed their mind in the

one minute

between demanding a claim and saying "I believe the claim." And you yourself said Dripp was attacking Richard harder than CMAR was.

I again point out that at the time CMAR made his case, there was little sign that it would turn into a full on lynch. Once it began to grow to large size, he pretty much vanished until his miraculously fast unvote.

Damn it, you're making me say the thing I didn't want to say in CMAR's defence. That being, CMAR was lurking and not really attacking

anyone

at that point. Since he was AWOL, obviously he wasn't pushing Richard. He wasn't around to push

anyone

. In fact, when he pops up again, this is all he has to say.

By the way, glad to see the Richard wagon is taking off. Pillars of the evil king's castle are finally falling 2day.

If anything, he's scum glad his mislynch wagon took off without him having to get his hands dirty.

~~END SKIM-WORTHY STUFF~~

[Mina]

~~PART TWO: Stuff the Rest of the World Might Care About~~

How can you say Axelrod seems town? Seriously, ISO him, it's really easy just do a "Sort By: Author" and he is right there on page 1 (after Animorph). I'd love to hear what makes you think he is town. Cause as far as my ISO read of him went, he is VERY scummy looking. I'll point back to my case for specifics. He basically does no scum hunting the whole game, votes Cow for terrible reason, parrot's Percy for his only case that even looks remotely good, then goes into active lurker mode. What about that exactly gives you a town read?

In all honesty, it's mainly gut. Admittedly, his activity hasn't been great. But this post analyzing the Kleedrac vs. Raivann wagons sounded extremely genuine. He comes across as though he's sincerely struggling to figure out people's motivations, not just trying to manufacture a case. I suppose he

could

be scum trying to keeping himself open to join either mob, but the execution works for me.

Funny you mention his interaction with Cow. I actually thought that although Cow has done a lot of things that look townish this game, he came off badly in his interaction with Axelrod. I mean, I took Axel's vote as a fairly casual pressure vote, but Cow's first post was really overdefensive:

boy that makes me feel welcome. I'm going to point out that newbies often replace out when they're under pressure because they don't know what else to do. I mean, he's Townsperson. Plus, he said he was too busy to play, so I'm calling party foul on this vote, because he didn't disappear, he replaced out.

Why the need for the long justification?

Also, there's been something I've been meaning to call Cow on for a long time. I think Axel's post ranting against Drippereth's playstyle was a nulltell. Regardless of his alignment, his frustration was clearly genuine. I can understand Drippereth calling it IIoA, because it's

technically

true and because Drippereth had a reason to be biased. This post, on the other hand, bugs me. Seriously, "this feels off"? On the contrary, I thought regardless of Axel's alignment, it was pretty obvious that his annoyance was genuine. Cow, by "off," are you saying that Axelrod seems insincere? And considering this was right after Drippereth moved Axel to her scumlist, the timing of his FOS seemed very opportunistic.

And the following, in particular, is the kind of thing scum say when they see someone under suspicion and try to join in with their own unique point, but end up talking out of their ass:

Even though it annoys you, is it scummy? if not, deal with it. This feels just like a way to ignore a player.

FoS: Axelrod

The last sentence is what really bugs me. Cow, what do you think the scum motivation is, anyway, for trying to "ignore a player" by saying they find their playstyle annoying? If you'd complained that it was filler instead of scumhunting, fine. But I cannot believe that you genuinely think someone is likely to be scum for that.

[Mina]

This post isn't full of brilliant content

because I might be just slightly, mildly, almost minutely on the tipsy side right now

, but just a quick response to a few people:

Actually, your response is coming off as pretty townish. And...that's kind of a good point about how you didn't need to unvote Kleedrac. (Mind you, now I'm concocting an elaborate Kleedrac-LynchMePls scumteam theory. At first, you didn't get the case on Kleedrac, right? But then you saw which way the winds were blowing, so you did a sudden turnaround and voted him, until you saw reluctance to lynch him and decided to make a last-ditch effort to save him with a huge case....someone please stop my overactive imagination.)

I asked what the case was, because he was just a lurker. He then made a scummy post in response to the pressure he was getting. I made a very good response to his scummy post, asked him questions, and voted him. If you think that makes me look scummy, then I don't even know what to say.

Um...

Actually, your response is coming off as

pretty townish

.

(Emphasis mine.) I thought your original case struck me as off because I've had experience with several players who stretch the facts and fabricate cases based on circumstantial evidence when they're scum. But now I'm thinking that your overall play is townish, even though I disagree with you on the Richard-Axelrod-CMAR triumvirate. (The whole part in parentheses was just me indulging in crazy conspiracy theories for the hell of it. I though it was obvious that I didn't fully believe it.) You sound passionate about what you're saying. I just think you're suffering from a teensy bit of confirmation bias. I don't hold it against you, because I'm totally guilty of indulging in confirmation bias all the time. I agree that your case is stronger when you focus on individual behaviour rather than on links.

Actually, I'm calling it now. LynchMePls vs. Axelrod is town vs. town. I will totally use this statement in endgame to brag about my brilliant scumhunting skills, even though odds are I haven't voted for a single scum all game. (I'm almost always humiliatingly wrong about who the scum are during the first couple of days. But my gut town reads tend to be right. Mind you, simple probability says that any person chosen at random is more likely to be town than scum...where was I going with this, again?)

Oh, really? Please explain to me how the instantaneous change between this and this is any different. Clearly, Dripp changed their mind in the

one minute

between demanding a claim and saying "I believe the claim." And you yourself said Dripp was attacking Richard harder than CMAR was.

I'll let Dripp answer for themselves on this one, but to me that looked like the two heads of the hydra simul posting. Hence the "ninja'd" comment. I think one of them was dubious and the other bought the claim. Also to note that while their two posts were a minute apart, they weren't TWO MINUTES after the claim like CMARs was.

I interpreted it as the same hydra head being ninja'd by Richard's claim. In that case, what's the difference? It took them 60 seconds to decide that the claim was worth unvoting for. Meanwhile, it took CMAR 120 seconds to make the same decision.

Just a question. Do you think CMAR is scummy because he was conveniently around to react to Richard's claim, or because his "unvote" reaction happened so quickly?

If it's the latter, then I think it's irrelevant that Drippereth's two posts in succession came afterward. Clearly, whichever head of the hydra was active at the time didn't notice Richard's claim at first, but made a snap decision within a minute that Richard's claim was believable. It's just a coincidence that CMAR unvoted first. And for the record, although I think Drippereth's reaction is a

little

dodgy, I don't think it's damning evidence of their scumminess. Likewise with CMAR.

By the way, glad to see the Richard wagon is taking off. Pillars of the evil king's castle are finally falling 2day.

Thanks for dredging this gem of a post up, it only illustrates my point. He posts that he is glad the wagon is taking off and "Pillars of the evil king's castle are finaly falling". So, he is glad the wagon is building steam, he is convinced he is scum, but he unvotes instantly after the claim. And what was the claim? ONE OF THE FIVE KINGS!!!! Isn't one of the five kings (particularly one that might be viewed as "good" by some readers) certainly a possible fake claim for a scum leader? Wouldn't that in and of itself make you pause? I know it did for me when I read the claim.

You know what? I'd advocate a CMAR nameclaim (not a roleclaim) now. I'm saying this because names were only tangentially related to roles in the mini (important characters didn't have important roles). This quote along with the horrible cop breadcrumb make no sense.

Oh, and if there is a Day vig out there, hitting Richard would be uber. Just saying.

Leaving aside the replacement fodder, I personally think vezopiraka (although his play makes him pretty much unreadable), Raivann, and the Migwelloni/Kinetic slot is scummier. And I have issues with Rivka, Benmage, I doubt it (his recent post was really wishy-washy), Kleedrac to a certain extent, Cow, and danakillsu. Agreed that Richard's current inactivity after he wriggled out of the lynch is annoying, though.

[Mina]

Ugh, too tired to reply to Cow, but just responding to Rifka:

Mina, read my posts. I dont have a case on benmage because i dont really find him big scummy read, plus he isnt posting enough to have some kind of solid case. The worst that could be said is active lurking and\or mysterious vote on drippy.

Here is my post answering you

A:If i thought a player is scum, then another player that i think is scumy attacking him isnt in any way a redeeming factor for that player in a game of this size. Right now im thinking benmage is town though. Not sure where you came up with the rest of the stuff in your post

I saw your post answering me. But you didn't answer a single question I asked you:

If Benmage was one of your top suspects earlier on (and I don't think you ever gave a reason for dropping your pursuit of him), then why are you making fun of someone for doing a case on him? If you wanted to single out the player in this game who's made the dumbest arguments and been the most anti-town, I certainly wouldn't choose I doubt it. So it seems to be his Benmage case that bothers you.

So answer this. Do you disagree with I doubt it's case on Benmage, but dislike it for other reasons? Is there something I doubt it has done that makes him look scummy/inexperienced to you? Is it because you heard SSBF, Drippereth, and Benmage say his case was bad, so you're just sheeping along? Are you just trying to be "one of the cool kids, LOL!" and join in with making fun of another player without getting your own hands dirty? Or is there a reason you dropped your suspicion of Benmage? I want you to explain, in detail, just why you think your case on Benmage is better than I doubt it's.

Questions unanswered (leaving out the rhetorical/snarky ones):

1) Do you disagree with I doubt it's case on Benmage, but dislike Benmage for other reasons?
2) Is there something I doubt is has done that makes him look scummy/inexperienced to you?
3) Is there a reason you dropped your suspicion of Benmage?
4) I want you to explain, in detail, just why you think your case on Benmage is better than I doubt it's.

Imaginary questions your post

might

have answered, but which is not at all what I actually asked you:

1) Is it theoretically possible for someone to find a player scummy who attacks a player you think is scum? (Even though you never even said you thought that I doubt it was scum.)
2) Do you suspect Benmage right this second?

Maybe you misunderstood where I was going with this. Benmage made a nasty post in which he told I doubt it to replace out of the game because he was so bad at Mafia. When the mod stepped in to warn against personal attacks, you felt the need to chime in with, "Gee, I dunno, is that really an unacceptable level of personal attack or just the truth?"

Except, you know, Benmage pretty much said I doubt it sucked solely and completely because I doubt it made a case on Benmage that Benmage thought was poor. So clearly, you think I doubt it's case on Benmage was poor. But early in the game, you attacked Benmage (for rather nitpicky reasons). Normally, townies react positively to cases on their pet suspects. They also say something when their pet suspects become town reads. And you keep on refusing to clarify just why you think I doubt it's case on your former suspect is so bad that I doubt it should replace out of the game.

(That said, I'm not that impressed with I doubt it's most recent post. His opinions seem very safe and middle-of-the-road.)

Either:
1) You're looking for an excuse to be an asshole. You don't really care

why

Benmage telling I doubt it to replace out of the game is not an unacceptable level of personal attack but the truth. You aren't paying attention. You just saw someone being made fun of, and wanted to get your own passive-aggressive dig in.
2) There's something I doubt it did that made you think he's a worse player than, say, vezopiraka. But you can't be bothered to explain what that something is.
3) You clearly aren't interested in following leads or connections, and aren't consistent in your suspicions, because you're scum and just tossing out random accusations to look active...
4) ...or because Benmage is your scumbuddy and all that talk about him being an "obstructionist" was just a waffling attempt at distancing.

You're kind of all over the place when it comes to Benmage. First you suspected him for weak reasons, then you stopped attacking him (but attacked SSBF for defending him), then you said you think he's town, now you're saying there isn't enough information to read him.

Now, I'd like answers to the questions I

really

asked you. Don't be evasive. I want specifics. Actual SPECIFICS, with quotes.

Mina, read my posts. I dont have a case on benmage because i dont really find him big scummy read, plus

he isnt posting enough to have some kind of solid case

. The worst that could be said is

active lurking

and\or mysterious vote on drippy.

(emphasis mine)
That's really funny. According to your own New York Lurker Report, Benmage was the second highest poster. (

Maybe

that could fit with "active lurking," but certainly not with "isn't posting enough to have some kind of solid case.")

Has he stopped being an "obstructionist" since his activity has dropped?

[Mina]

Rifka, I'll admit that when I attack someone, I sometimes up the rhetoric for the sake of

being a drama queen

generating pressure and reactions. But you still haven't answered Questions 1, 2 and 4. I suppose that counts as a decent answer for 3. Just answer my questions. Exactly what I asked.

The early fight about "obstructionism" is the kind of argument I associate with scumbuddies under no suspicion trying to create distance without putting each other in danger of a lynch. Obviously, not sufficient evidence on its own, because you know, cases based on links on D1 before a flip and all that. But combined with your reluctance to explain your little dig at I doubt it and the lack of explanation for your thought process, I definitely thought the connection was worth poking at.

2. The speed of the wagon, and the reasons some players used to contribute to it, stink of scum.

Percy, what do you think of the Kleedrac and Raivann wagons? Do you think they're more town-driven than that on Richard?

Also, question to Locke. Do you still suspect Unsight?

[Mina]

By the way, just catching up on something from ages ago...

Also, I would like to hear others' thoughts on my post that Raivann messed up on rather than their bashing of Raivann for messing up. I think the messing up part is a null tell, personally.

Sorry, which post are you talking about? Who's suspecting Raivann for "messing up"?

Um....
How about...
Raivann is actually posting? And Kleedrac has simply given up?

Kleedrac is getting replaced, anyway, so this argument doesn't work.

Are you sure? Eddard Stark doesn't seem to be saying this. If Kleedrac is replaced with someone decent, I'd be just as down for a Raivann lynch I guess. But my point about the timing is still valid.
And I'm talking about my June 13, 8:31 PM post. And Mikujin was bashing Raivann.

I finally got around to checking your post, and this is what it said:

Yes, I simply meant the surge of votes toward Raivann instead of Kleedrac, who is only L-6. Here's what I see as our options today:
1) Lynch Richard. IMHO, not a good idea.
2) Lynch Kleedrac. If you believe he's scummy, why not? He's not going to help town even if we keep him alive, since he's given up on posting. And if he's scum, he'll probably do just as much harm as Raivann-scum would.
3) Lynch Raivann. But if we don't do this today, even if he's scum, it probably won't hurt us.
End result: IF you don't want to lynch Richard after his claim, and IF you find Kleedrac nearly as scummy as Raivann, you should be voting for Kleedrac.

Where do you mention anything about "messing up" or "nulltells"? You just give strategic reasons to vote Kleedrac or Raivann. I feel as though I'm missing a step in your logic.

[Mina]

In the middle of writing a big post, since I've missed a lot, but CSL, why do you suspect CMAR over Raivann? Both are about even in the vote counts.

[Mina]

I was intending this to be much shorter. Ack, trying to make yet another wall more readable by splitting it into several posts.

Part I: CSL and SSBF

I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now.

And...what is the scumread based on? Why do you suspect CMAR more than Raivann? Why do you suspect CMAR, in fact?

Raivann can wait until tomorrow.

So if you're saying we should lynch Raivann tomorrow, are you implying that he's your second top suspect? Do you suspect him more than

Kleedrac

, who you seemed convinced was scum before? Why do you suspect Raivann?

I have another question for you after you answer these.

(Oh, and since I have no manners, welcome to the game, CSL, Budja, and Thor. Thanks for replacing in.)

SSBF was town with that massive wagon analsys post from way back when..

Although he's made a lot of misplays and bad arguments, I felt the same way (which is why I never followed up on my original "parroting" line of questioning). In my experience, scum are usually reluctant to post cases and concrete opinions on multiple players, because they risk linking themselves to their buddies. (Instead, they tend to either attack one player at a time or post wishy-washy generalities on everyone; I think the post Unsight just linked to of SSBF's scum play falls into the latter category, but maybe I'll compare his BW analysis post later to see if it was as substantial as I remember.)

I'm paradoxically getting town vibes from julienvonwolfe, MacavityLock, Drippereth AND (to a much lesser extent) SSBF. To be honest, I'm swimming in townreads.

[Mina]

Ninja'd.

Part II: Percy

@Mina: Did you ever get around to reading my meta?

The reason I asked you for meta in the first place was because I followed Gonzo Mafia and remembered that you said you were "excellent as scum and bad as town." And three new people raising you every time you posted did nothing to ease my paranoia.

I skim-iso'd you in Molinero's Mafia before the move (although now the links aren't working). Ever since then, ha ha, I've been kind of terrified of you. All those big, sensible posts with lots of detail and analysis....

So as much as I've disliked the Migwelloni/Kinetic slot's play, I can understand him being paranoid. (Mind you, I'm kind of enjoying the HOW CAN YOU TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THAT FIENDISH MINA'S TOWN AND SCUM PLAY talk. I'm pretending it's because I looked uber-townish in AGoT and not because I don't look townish now.)

You sound pretty genuine, and look more townish than you did in Gonzo. My only lingering doubt is that you seemed more emotional and more willing to ruffle feathers in the two town games I've seen you in. I know that my instinct as scum is to shirk away from 1 v. 1s and from conflict with other players (when I'm not trying to lynch the "serial killer," anyway). Likewise, you tend to post intelligent, detached observations but mostly stay out of the fray. What I remember of Molinero Mafia showed me that you can easily do that as scum. Also, although I have no clue why dana flipped out at me over my having trouble understanding a post of his, I thought your evidence for his "flip-flop" on Raivann was a bit stretchy.

Either way, if you're scum and we really are in a multiple-faction game, then you've kind of shot yourself in the

Hand

foot by getting Raised.

Percy, do you see any difference between Raivann's play here and in the mini? You suspected him there as well, and he flipped town. MacavityLock thinks he's acting similarly here. I'm not just imagining that Raivann wasn't a total lunatic there, am I? Maybe I'll check out his scum game later.

[Mina]

Part III: The Lynch Options

I still prefer the Raivann lynch to the CMAR and Kleedrac/Budja ones.

If I had a nickel for every time a suspect flaked on the game, someone proclaimed, "Look, he hasn't posted in days even though there's a wagon on him! He must be scum!" and everyone to pile on his lynch, only for the lurker to flip town....

Can I pass my pet Raivann wagon off as a lurkerscum-lynch, too? He hasn't posted since Thursday or answered my questions.

The way the CMAR wagon has developed looks very dodgy. Also, I've reread the beginning of the game. To be honest, I really got a town read from CMAR's early posts. Yes, I can understand why his contract and RVS = over could be construed as "fake helpful," but it comes across to me as an overeager townie trying too hard to me. I have no idea what the hell happened to him since then. His unprompted softclaim, in particular, was just a total nutjob move. Still, not sold on his lynch anymore.

That said, I'm VERY interested to see his reaction to the wagon on him.

Kleedrac/Budja still isn't my favourite lynch--particularly since I think both town AND scum throw temper tantrums under pressure and use AtEs. (I'll admit that I often subconsciously appeal to people's emotions as town; sometimes, sincerity and passion are better proof of someone's towniness than a point-by-point defence.) I'm willing to give Budja a chance to prove himself. Also, I just realized something. If it turns out that this is a multi-faction game, then "appearing to know that Richard is town" means nothing. Because if Kleedrac is scum, then either Richard is Kleedrac's scumbuddy (in which case Dripp claims he'd never defend Richard) or Kleedrac genuinely doesn't know the alignments of most of the players in the game. Let's see how many kills there are tonight.

[Mina]

BAM! There's scum on that. Tons of 'em.
SO Lynchme's tow, we're town, dana's town, vezo's town, miku's town.

I'll ask again: where does your town read on dana come from? I don't recall you posting anything...

anything

about dana other than "dana is town." Please enlighten me.xvart.

I'd be more interested in hearing where the town read on vezo comes from.

[Mina]

Someone (Mina I think) raised a concern about players who flake getting wagons almost always flipping pro-town. I don't have near the experience in forum mafia to know if that is true or not, but it sounds anecdotal and not very persuasive.

I don't think it's a towntell. Come to think of it, I've seen it happen twice to scum (ortolan/Cobalt in the Gonzo game I mentioned and SocioPath in Mini 876--although SocioPath claimed afterward that he hadn't noticed the wagon on him). It's just that I've often seen town flake under pressure and neglect games (kpaca in Fables Mafia, at least two players in the A Game of Thrones mini). So I'm becoming increasingly disillusioned with flaking or posting elsewhere on-site as a scumtell--which sucks, because there's definitely an incentive for scum to lurk.

Axelrod, are you voting CMAR

only

because of his recent lurking? You seemed to genuinely suspect Raivann before. Your vote post implies you're only voting CMAR because CMAR is the least active of the three viable wagons.

LynchMePls, I think that towntells are as useful as scumtells. (In fact, my town reads are usually much more accurate than my scum reads early in the game.) My read on CMAR is the same as Thor's (although Thor hasn't got to the weird Axelrod sycophancy and softclaim yet).

-----------------
By the way, anyone notice that Kinetic remembered to raise in his catch-up post (even though Percy was at R-1 and I was trailing by eleven raise votes), but didn't vote? Actually, does Kinetic even

have

suspects?

It would be very funny, though, if this game was similar to the last where one of the scum fake-claimed the OTHER scum's real role, lol.

Kinetic, do you have any reason to believe that Renly and Loras are scum roles?

[Mina]

@mods:

Players who need a good hard prod:

Raivann: Hasn't posted since Thursday, June 17, 12:19 AM
Super Smash Bros. Fan: Hasn't posted since Thursday, June 17, 11:55 PM
Benmage: Hasn't posted since Friday, June 18, 12:26 AM
CryMeARiver: Hasn't posted since Friday, June 18, 7:00 PM

We definitely want Raivann and CMAR around. And I still have questions for Benmage.

Mod ~ All 4 have been prodded. However, the deadline will not be extended further.

[Mina]

Almost forgot:

And now, let's put this together:
-You think Raivann is just as scummy as Kleedrac/Budja.
-You think CMAR is town, or at least think there hasn't been anything out of the ordinary from that slot.
-CMAR is on 9 votes. Raivann is on 7. And yet you leave your vote on Budja, saying "a lynch on CMAR is better than NL".
Right now is the time to be pressuring Raivann or pushing the Raivann wagon over the CMAR wagon, rather than throwing up your hands, sitting out and pouting about it. You have never had any conviction behind your Raivann read, and it shows. Same goes for your CMAR read.

NICE CATCH!

Now I'll stop spamming.

[Mina]

So Axelrod, you're not basing your opinion of the three wagons on anything other than their inactivity? Also, you never explained why you suspected MagnaofIllusion.

By the way, guys, I have a NICE catch on CSL. I'll give him one more day to answer my questions before I say what it is.

Kinetic: you haven't contributed a single suspect yet. Step it up. Now.

Wow, those 2 iso were incredibly easy...both bring absolutely nothing to the table, both have people on their wagons I like and dislike. (His cancer's in some sort of tie) So to ensure we get a lynch:

unvote vote Raivannn

Benmage, didn't you suspect CMAR already? You're really voting for the player you suspect LESS because he has two more votes? Particularly when vezokpiraka's vote clearly isn't set in stone?

Seriously. Both wagons are viable at this point. If you vote for Raivann, vote for him because he looks scummier than CMAR. If you vote for CMAR, vote for him because he looks scummier than Raivann. If you genuinely thought CMAR was scum, you'd be trying to convince us to lynch him.

------
Raivann...oh, Raivann.

I know I'm so terrified of your scumhunting skills that I'm desperate to see you lynched, but would you mind answering this question from last week:

Raivann, here's a homework assignment for you. Choose four players, and write at least three sentences per player explaining why you suspect each one. So far, I feel your scumhunting hasn't been very thorough.

Had you answered this immediately (and shown us you're willing to contribute to the game), maybe this wagon wouldn't have grown so quickly!

Mind you, I'll admit I'm no longer as confident that he's guilty. I reread the end of Mini 926, and he played a lot worse than I remembered before his lynch (including being all over the place with his votes and accusing those who suspect him for trying to lynch an amazing scumhunter). Still made an effort in that game. And considering his last words in the mini were wishing me and one of my scumbuddies luck, his over-the-top paranoia over me comes across as genuine. (Yeah, yeah, I know, accuse me of distancing from a mislynch tomorrow if Raivann flips town.)

On the other hand, I ISO'd CMAR in both a town and scum game of his. His play here (before he just gave up on the game) looks more like his town than his scum game (he came across as really jittery and overdefensive in the latter). Admittedly, I haven't read Mafia in Mendo.

Hmm. Faraday, has CMAR responded to his prod yet?

I don't suppose forty-eight hours is enough to rack up fourteen votes on anyone, is it? I am so tempted to start a third wagon right now just to see what happens.

Also, I'd really like to hear SOMETHING from Budja by the end of the day, because otherwise, I'm going to wonder if he escaped the lynch because he was protected.

[Mina]

The town game is the one Rivka mentioned:
CMAR's ISO in Go Play in Traffic

The scum game is ongoing.

Faraday, am I allowed to link to an on-going game?

I'll just say that CMAR was lynched in Gears of Wars Mafia (which I'm not playing) on D1 and flipped scum in it. You can read his ISO for yourself.

~Yeah, don't mention ongoing games by name please Mina. I'm not going to edit this out due to the fact the damage is already done. Be more careful in the future please

[Mina]

Sorry! Faraday, can you edit my last post to remove the name of his scum game, then?

Ugh...mind you, now I'm reading his ISO in Mafia in Mendo (the scum game CMAR won). He actually looks pretty townish there:
CMAR's scum ISO

Anyway, this is just based on a gut vibe from skimming through someone's posts out of context, so take this with a grain of salt.

Also, in Raivann's scum game (Revenge of the Crimson King), he does a few things similar to this game, but sounds a bit more cautious and guarded...

AAAAAH! *tears hair out* I hate last-minute lynch pressure. Seriously, guys. You shouldn't make decisions purely on my judgment. Don't be fooled by my big words and long paragraphs. I'm wrong about 70% of the time.

[Mina]

No, you shouldn't be off the hook. Claiming a PR is NOT a free pass out of a lynch.

Needless to say - you are not the lynch for today, but you definitely are not clear.

Well, aren't you a hypocrite?

You know, I'm going to break my streak of trying to lynch claimed vigs and say I'm leaning toward believing the claim. Vig is a provable role, and Beric uses vigilante justice in the book. Even if Raivann tries to pull the "I was roleblocked" card for the rest of the game, he guarantees that the

real

vig targets him. Only doubt in my mind is that he could be a serial killer.

Unvote

Um...sorry, Raivann.

Note: if you are a vig, DO NOT counterclaim Raivann, cast doubt on his claim, or say anything that might give yourself away today. Just vig him tonight! If it doesn't work, wait until tomorrow to counterclaim.

It also explains why Raivann thought Richard's claim was a lie. I'm not sure how likely it is for there to be a full vig AND a one-shot vig.

Should we direct his kill? If this game is anything like last, there's a scum roleblocker or doctor out there to neutralize the vig. It's just that he might still be a SK.

Willing to move to CMAR if necessary, but not before a claim.

You know what? I have an idea. Just for fun, I'm going to try something.

Vote: RichardGHP

[Mina]

I changed my mind in the shower.

I'll be out all day, and there isn't enough time before the deadline to make

two

moves like this.

The Richard vote was a trap for only one person. I think this vote will be much more informative.

Unvote

Vote: Budja

Hey, guys! We have about thirty-six hours before the deadline, and Budja is now a lynch option again. Who's willing to change back to the player they actually suspected?

[Mina]

I'm hammering in 30 minutes. Because I'm nice and giving Cry a chance to stop lurking and post his fakeclaim. In 30 minutes.
BWAHAHAHAHA

Gah, WAIT! Can you at least give me the chance to spam the thread with wall posts for a bit in case something tragic happens to me before tomorrow morning? I've been procrastinating all day.

[Mina]

WHY DOES EVERY WAGONED PLAYER CLAIM TO HAVE SOME KIND OF POWER ROLE?

*sobs*

That...explains the bad "copping" breadcrumb, actually...but why didn't you claim this yesterday? There isn't even time for another wagon, anymore! Why the hell would you wait until NOW?

[Mina]

Oh, God, this is a mess.

The sad part is, again, CMAR's early play and breadcrumbs ARE consistent with someone trying to draw a NK (albeit really, really badly). BUT WHY WOULD YOU WAIT UNTIL NOW? And why did you flake on the game if you were trying to draw a kill?

Drippereth, "Mina" and "fast" is an oxymoron. There's more I have to say (about Kinetic and Percy), if people are willing to wait. But I'll come forward with my catch on CSL. (I feel bad, since--full disclosure--I was the one who told CSL in the first place that we were looking for replacements.)

When CSL first showed up, he bashes Kleedrac a lot, but also says this:

TOWN READS
Percy
Drippereth
Richard (claim believable)
Mina

SCUM READS
Kleedrac (Richard's claim is believable, so this guy looks scum)
Deer (He quit, and I have a scumread on him anyway)
danakillsu (Not been doing a good job, lately. I want to see him scumhunt a bit more)

In his Kleedrac case, he says about CMAR:

3: A case on CMAR.

I do have a slight suspicion of CMAR

, and a scumread on Kleedrac, and votes him. Also comes up with an excuse as to why he wasn't posting.

So in other words, he suspects CMAR, but Raivann/Deer more (odd that he doesn't mention a scum read on Raivann even though this was after Raivann's implosion).

Furthermore, he makes this statement:

That said, I am not for a Richard lynch today. Anyone wanting his lynch should be lynched on the spot.

Pretty strong words.

Except, of course,

Raivann tried to lynch Richard in his very first post

!

Then he votes CMAR in order to get a lynch. When called on it, he answers like this:

I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now. Raivann can wait until tomorrow.

I wanted to see if he'd noticed that Raivann tried to lynch Richard. That's why I didn't want to give away my catch until he answered these questions:

And...what is the scumread based on? Why do you suspect CMAR more than Raivann? Why do you suspect CMAR, in fact?
So if you're saying we should lynch Raivann tomorrow, are you implying that he's your second top suspect? Do you suspect him more than

Kleedrac

, who you seemed convinced was scum before? Why do you suspect Raivann?

Of course, he justifies his suspicions like this:

He's been making scummy posts. I'll get to fully analysing him tomorrow, if no one hammers. (If a hammer happens before I get to it, the player who did is scum)

In his analysis, he only mentions stuff that happened early in the game, which was when he only had a "slight" suspicion of CMAR, as opposed to a strong read on Deer.

Conclusions:
1) CSL originally suspected Raivann/Deer more than CMAR, but votes CMAR over Raivann.
2) Even though he stated anyone who wanted to lynch Richard should be "lynched on the spot," he still had no problems with Raivann.

The second one--fine, I

suppose

he might not have been paying attention, or resorting to hyperbole. But the first one is pretty bad. At first, I was thinking CSL and Raivann might be scumbuddies. Now, I'm just suspicious of CSL.

The reason I voted for Richard at first was to see how CSL would react. Would he want to lynch me for "trying to lynch him"?

But then, I realized that:

1) We already had the information that CSL wasn't consistent. As luck would have it, several people ended up voting for Richard anyway--and CSL didn't react to it. Note that he didn't react to any of the other votes on Richard, either.

2) It would be better to revive the Budja wagon, because lots of people had stated firm opinions on him. We could analyze the mobs and try to catch people on an inconsistency in suspects the next day. Also, since Budja was apparently CSL's top suspect, his reaction to a Budja wagon would be informative. Meanwhile, people could rationalize their reluctance to jump onto Richard with "But...but...

his claim

!"

So it turns out people weren't as serious about their Budja suspicions as I thought.

Unfortunately, I'd need to compare the wagons throughout Day 1 to see if anyone was inconsistent on Budja, Raivann, or CMAR, or if anyone was trying to protect Budja/CMAR. And furthermore, people are going to claim that there just weren't enough

votes

on Budja to lynch him, and Raivann's vig claim suddenly made Richard look scummier. So that will obscure people's real motives.

Right now, my gut feeling based on how the wagons developed is that both CMAR and Raivann are town. I'm not sure about Budja and Richard--they might have been protected, but it's also likely that he was just the target of opportunistic voters, since many of the floating Budja votes went to CMAR. And of course, if there are multiple scumteams. But again, I haven't done the analysis.
-----
Raivann, I think your best shot of hitting scum right now is Kinetic or CSL (Kinetic is my first choice because CSL might just be that kind of careless player, and because I have a paranoid scumteam theory into which Kinetic-scum fits better than CSL-scum). vezokpiraka would be a decent (albeit low-information) shot just because he's impossible to read. I also REALLY dislike I doubt it's recent play. Just ISO him. He's taken a very safe stance on all the wagons. He also keeps trying to cast sideways doubt on all the claims. (He's not the only one guilty of this, but more later.)

But I'm starting to think it's a better strategic move overall to vig either Budja or Richard tonight. Both have been wagoned, and both will probably be wagoned again tomorrow. Having flips on either of them will help us evaluate the alignments of most of the other players in the game. It will also force everyone to move on tomorrow and look in new directions.

...Of course, the caveat is that it will be easier to figure out Budja or Richard's alignment once we get a few flips on their wagon, so you might be getting rid of someone who'll be probable town down the road. Hmm.

[Mina]

You know, since CMAR is a revealed bulletproof and so many people are deadset on lynching him, lynching him is better than no lynch. If people are going to turn on him anyway, might as well get a flip on him today. But to be honest, I feel as though he's town.

Seriously, how many people are around? Has anyone ever managed fourteen votes on one player within six hours?

[Mina]

I should add:

1) In the mini, scum were given the ability to PM the mod for a fake role claim, with abilities and flavour text. In fact, the fake claims were often consistent with the real claims (e.g., both "fake" Jon and "real" Samwell having references to the Night Watch having a stake in King's Landing). I see no reason to think it would be different now. CMAR would have needed to have asked for one right at the beginning of the game to fit with his breadcrumbs, though.

2) The one-shot BP player was informed in the mini when an attempt was made on his life.

3) MagnaofIllusion, if CMAR flips town, you will have some explaining to do later. But let it lie for now.

Axelrod is back on my leaning-town list. So are LynchMePls, Drippereth, and MacavityLock--

possibly

MagnaofIllusion.

Thor, I've seen you active in the Theme Park forum over the past couple of days. Yet you haven't had much to say. Thoughts on anything?

[Mina]

1) In the mini, scum were given the ability to PM the mod for a fake role claim, with abilities and flavour text. In fact, the fake claims were often consistent with the real claims (e.g., both "fake" Jon and "real" Samwell having references to the Night Watch having a stake in King's Landing). I see no reason to think it would be different now. CMAR would have needed to have asked for one right at the beginning of the game to fit with his breadcrumbs, though.

Unless he was waiting until now to get the pm from the mod with his mod-created fake claim for the flavor, which is why there was a delay in the response.

But he had breadcrumbed all the "badass" flavour in his very first post. Clearly, he had the PM early on. I don't know why he waited so long to claim, but the delay wasn't because he was waiting for his PM...

...*checks thread*

Well, too late, now.

Quick, before the thread is locked, if Percy ever flips scum, I think Kinetic might be a buddy. Having played with him before as scum, he always tries to distance himself from partners and act slightly suspicious of them. I think his "putting Percy on his watch list" is similar. Gah, and I still didn't respond to Percy!

Thor is probably town.

Mina. A lynch > No Lynch

The CMAR wagon had more steam in it, therefore, I voted CMAR for the sake of a lynch.

Bullshit. THEY WERE BOTH IN DEAD HEAT! You and Benmage both voted for the players (so did vezo, but...yeah. Then when I called you on it, you said this:

I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now. Raivann can wait until tomorrow.

So in other words, YOU DID CLAIM CMAR WAS SCUMMIER THAN RAIVANN! So now you're backtracking and saying you did suspect Raivann more than CMAR, but voted CMAR to get the lynch? You've just been caught in a lie.

[Mina]

EBWOP: I mean, both CSL and Benmage voted for the players with one-two more votes over the player they actually claimed to suspect. Benmage claimed afterward that it was because he miscalculated the deadline, though.

What I mean about Kinetic is that many scum players seem to suffer from an allergy of stating something positive about a buddy ever. Kinetic tends to do this--express really vague suspicion of a partner to distance. So I think keeping away from Percy's raise wagon is the kind of thing he'd do if they were scumbuddies. Of course, it helps that neither Kinetic nor Migwelloni has made an effort to find scum all game.

Also, I forget, did Mikujin ever explain why he'd jumped right away onto the Richard wagon? I thought his attack of Raivann at the end of the day felt a bit forced (although I'm not sold on Mikujin!scum).

Oh, and MagnaofIllusion, I don't think you ever explained why you found Axelrod reasonable other than his stance on raising!

Percy, I'm curious. What gave you that townread of xvart? You held onto it even after he was inactive for a while. I'm asking because I find xvart hasn't been as townish as he was in the mini. I also find that although he hasn't committed

scumtells

, he doesn't seem to have much passion or conviction. He's just a giant null.

Speaking of which, from way back...

I am against Drippereth having the double vote. I find reading Ellibereth and DrippingGoofball very difficult at the best of times, and have a more solid townread on other players.

Which players were those?

I can't really pin anything on Percy, but I agree with Drippereth and LynchMe that his last couple of posts seemed a little off. (I thought I was just going crazy!) Maybe it's what LynchMe said about his nitpicking over fakeclaims; I also feel on a gut level as though his attacks are a bit forced, he plants seeds of doubt against people, and he softly supports the popular wagons. I've got this feeling from really really good scum before--but also from town players who I know can be really really good scum--in which it's hard to pin down what's wrong, but I don't quite believe that

they'd

believe what they're saying if they were town. But then I reread him again and keep thinking I've imagined it because he sounds so townish. Gah!

It might just be paranoia that we're idiots who handed the scum one fewer lynch to win. But anyway, if there's a second scum team, he's screwed. He'll be night-killed eventually, because they won't want a widely trusted double-voter in endgame--particularly not if he's on the other scumteam.

[Mina]

Gah, now I'm not as suspicious of Percy. Come to think of it, xvart was the one whose posts about fakeclaims bothered me the most.

Even if Raivann tries to pull the "I was roleblocked" card for the rest of the game, he guarantees that the

real

vig targets him. Only doubt in my mind is that he could be a serial killer.

Or that he could be a serial killer

and

there be no town vig...?
I'm a bit confused about this. See, you also say:

I'm not sure how likely it is for there to be a full vig AND a one-shot vig.

...so it seems to me that assuming there is a full-power actual-vig (and you seem to, since you warn them not to CC) in the case of Raivann-scum doesn't match up...?

1) Full vig is a terrible claim for scum to make, because not only is it provable, but it ensures that the

real

vig targets him the same night.
2) It's a decent claim for a SK in a pinch.
3) There being a full vig AND a one-shot vengeance vig is not outside the realm of possibility, but kind of redundant and unlikely.
4) Raivann's suspicion of Richard fits with his role.
5) It's very unlikely that Raivann and Richard are on the same scumteam.
6) However,

if

someone out there is a full vigilante, then obviously Raivann is a liar who was dumb enough to claim an easily provable role like vigilante. (Even though you're right that it's unlikely if Richard is telling the truth and is town-aligned). So vig Raivann tonight. If that doesn't work, then counterclaim him tomorrow.

I'm not sure what to think of your Richard/Riavann consideration since my suspicions are flip-flopped from your own (I suspect Richard town and Riav scum) I agree that there is something amiss in that relationship.

It's hard to say who's the scummier, since both have played poorly and done scummy things, but not completely out of character. Also, both were pushed to L-1 really easily. One point against Richard is that Loras hasn't claimed yet. I was reluctant to lynch him today on pure outguess-the-mod, though.

This really bothers me. Right now, I'm thinking CMAR was the most likely to be town of our four wagoned players today. Games on mafiascum are balanced to allow almost no mislynches, and throwing one away like this sucks. I wish CMAR had claimed just ONE DAY earlier, and I wish Thor's post had come before the hammer (I appreciate his effort).

@Mina - what are your thoughts about the movement from Riav to Richard post Riav's claim?

Hmm. I'm not sure, TBH. It's weird that people swung toward him instead of toward Budja, and solely because of his claim.

...Actually, I've just realized something. A while ago, it occurred to me that Raivann and LynchMe might be town because of their votes for Richard, regardless of Richard's alignment. If they were scum and Richard town, then wouldn't they try to avoid lynching him so as not to enable Loras' vig kill? Then I brushed it aside when I realized that they might have been trying to flush out Loras. And if Loras ever died and flipped town, Richard would be confirmed. Besides, Raivann didn't seem like he was thinking that far ahead. (Also, I think I was subconsciously attached to my Raivann case.)

But now I'm thinking that attacking Richard at all is just guaranteed to lead to bad things. I dunno. Do people think that far ahead, or do they just jump on any old convenient wagon? Are two confirmed townies worth more than a one-shot vig kill? Do you think the Richard voters (LynchMe, Rivka, danakillsu, I doubt it) would be more likely to be town?

[Mina]

WAIT!

New thought.

Raivann, I know you don't trust me and think I'm Richard's scumbuddy, but don't vig Richard tonight.

Vig someone else (I'd go with Budja, vezo, Kinetic, or CSL). Then tomorrow, WE FORCE EVERYONE TO CLAIM LORAS/NOT-LORAS!

If no one claims Loras, then we lynch Richard, but we still get just as many suspects eliminated. But I think two confirmed townies is better than a single one-shot vig kill early on in the game. It means two players out of the suspect pool as opposed to only one (and the one-shot vig is irrevocable, AND we only get it if Richard was a misvigged townie).

Seriously.

Why didn't I think of that sooner?

Big deal if we lose the one-shot vig. Better than the cop.

Hell, Loras, you should probably claim right now! At worst, you eat a nightkill. You'll be saving us a misvig or a mislynch.

[Mina]

Oh, Raivann. Nice try.

Figures that the one time I trusted a vig claim, I was wrong. But then again, I was right that you'd have to be really dumb as scum to fakeclaim vig.

You know, dana votes are all well and good (and I agree with Mikujin that SSBF's vezokpiraka case seems like picking an easy target and bombarding him with text to direct heat elsewhere), but why has everyone except Percy ignored this post and this post?

Vote: CSL

Obviously, Raivann has more than one buddy. I'll reread dana to see how much I like the case on him. At the time I didn't find his positions on Raivann vs. Kleedrac that damning--I didn't see a huge difference between "Raivann and Kleedrac are about equally scummy" and "Raivann is almost as scummy as Kleedrac," and I think scum are usually reluctant to outright say, "Let's not lynch my buddy"--but his jump onto CMAR and FOS of Percy while caving to his pressure was horrible. danakillsu and SSBF are both big blindspots for me.

(That said...I've played with dana, and he isn't the brightest bulb. In a game where the mod had been caught ripping off all the roles from a game off-site that featured a a team of mason-rolecops, this is a guy who believed scum over the mason claiming the investigation of a buddy WHO'D JUST BEEN NIGHT-KILLED AND FLIPPED THE SAME ROLE THAT APPEARED IN THE OTHER GAME. And then STILL believed the scum was telling the truth the next day, AFTER THE SECOND MASON FLIPPED TOWN. Like, not the brightest bulb at all.)

But I think CSL's behaviour was at least as bad as dana's. Ignoring his overall scummy play, let's summarize his connections to Raivann:

1) CSL votes Kleedrac (who was the leading wagon at the time), and puts Deer/Raivann in his scum reads. Is slightly suspicious of CMAR.

2) Then CSL votes CMAR "to get a lynch" when CMAR and Raivann are neck-in-neck in the votecount.

3) When I call him on this, he says both CMAR and Raivann are scummy, but CMAR is scummier. And Kleedrac is scummiest, but it's too late to push him.

4) But then when I point out that he said Raivann was scummier before, he goes back to his story about just wanting to get a lynch--any lynch--implying he always found Raivann scummier.

5) Also, he said that anyone who wanted to lynch Richard should be lynched on the spot...but pretty much ignored anyone who said they wanted to lynch Richard, including Raivann.

I have a feeling that most of the people who can explain last night are dead.
I have a theory on why Jaq'en "suicided," but it might provide the scum with a handy fake claim later on. Either way, if it's true, then the person directing our vig kill chose Budja over the player WHO CLAIMED VIG WHEN THAT DIRECTOR KNEW THERE WAS ANOTHER VIG IN THE GAME...so it's probably for the best that we lost the hired assassin as early as we did.

Torn as to whether Loras flipping "triggered" vengeful townie implies that he set off a vengeful kill on Raivann--meaning one team's kill was blocked--or whether the other scumteam killed Raivann.

By the way, in the prequel mini, each killer had his or her own kill flavour. If the same player was targeted twice, both flavours would show up. So since Raivann was only hacked to pieces (as opposed to, say, "hacked to pieces and disemboweled"), he was only targeted once.

We have one huge advantage today: we know the alignments of all four players who were wagoned yesterday. This will help us find not only Greyjoy scum, but other-faction scum.

Ugh, I wish I could borrow the brain of several logical-partnership-analysis types I know. Last night I started rereading the game from page one and taking notes on the formation of the four wagons...but it's soooooo tedious. And so much of it is WIFOM. Not sure if I'll share my entire thought process or just my conclusions, because I already have a wall on the first two or three pages of the game. It probably won't be done for a while, especially since I have to leave, now.

[Mina]

Richard is still scum, Mina sure seems scared to leave me alive. Percy seems to always wanna lynch me.

One of these three is scum.

Um...

Richard is confirmed town, I was the first person on Raivann's wagon, and Percy was the third (I suppose Percy's jump onto CMAR and back to Raivann

could

be a case of distancing from a buddy, briefly supporting an alternate lynch when it seemed viable, before deciding once and for all to cut ties--I'll reread the evolution of his opinions in context--but that would be kind of convoluted). You're better off making a case that we're on the other scumteam.

Also, please explain why Percy is definitely scum. Yesterday I was irrationally paranoid of Percy for reasons that could be pretty much summarized as "bad vibes," and thought you were seeing the same things I was (I owe him a better explanation for the "softly supporting wagons" comment when I have more time, since it was really more a paranoid gut impression of how he seemed to support the wagon on Richard even though he disagreed with it, and, uh, cast doubt on Raivann's claim ), but right now I feel much better about Percy than I do about you.

I agree 100% with Mikujin and LynchMePls. You've been really, really off since the Kleedrac wagon fizzled--and hell, even before then. DGB is known for vote count analysis, right? Why don't you do some of that instead of relying on such shallow reasoning?

I felt that Deer was town.

Then, that Kleedrac was scum. I thought that the scum was trying to distract from the Kleedrac wagon with a Raivann wagon, because Raivann didn't really stand out to me.

*cough*

Okay. This seriously has to be a joke. This is too big a slip for all but the most incompetent scum.

I've just read your ISO. This is already a wall, so I won't bother quoting EVERY. SINGLE. TIME you've said that Deer was obvious scum who should be lynched on the spot.

Instead, I'll just post these two lists, between right before and right after Deer replaced out:

SCUM
Kleedrac (conditional on Richard flip) *** very scummy now
I doubt it
Deer

NEUTRAL
<snip>
Raivann - Deer (I'm giving the replacement a chance)

So apparently, you thought Deer was scummy up until the very minute he replaced out, and then moved Raivann to neutral just to give him a chance to catch up.

My initial thought was that even you two wouldn't be bold enough as scum to lead the first wagon out of RVS on a buddy (although you switched to pushing a townie lynch afterward), and then drop all that distancing when he was in danger of a lynch. But explain right now why, if you're town, you just lied about your read on Deer.

[Mina]

Eddard Stark: prod Locke Lamora, xvart, and vezokpiraka, please.

Anyone remember that Locke is still in this game?

Has

anyone

read my case on CSL? Anyone at all? It's not just a lurker lynch. It's a lot like the case on danakillsu, except my wagon has butterflies and rainbows!

Seriously, MacavityLock. You're looking for scum not among the players who supported CMAR's wagon or looked the other way when Raivann was an option, but those who let Raivann get to L-1 and then unvoted AFTER RAIVANN CLAIMED VIG? Everyone rushed off his wagon then. You're

really

taking that vote count out of context by choosing an arbitrary point at which Raivann had an equal number of votes to CMAR. The moment Raivann claimed vig, his lynch obviously stopped being viable. Both town AND scum would unvote and scramble for a new lynch option. Voting Mikujin for being a Raivann buddy because of his unvote when he was pushing the Raivann lynch hardest of anyone takes the cake.

Question to players: assuming two scumteams, how many players would you say are on each? Three? Four?

@Mina (Post made on June 17, 2010 at 3:32 AM) I remember one of your post where you basically made more then half of your post "skim-worthy". This was on LynchMePls. Why did you think it was "skim-worthy"? Personally, I thought that it was valueable infromation that town can work on.

This is kind of a useless filler comment to make. Do you think me calling it "skim-worthy" is scummy? Is there any valuable information in particular that you want to highlight in that post? Why are you bringing this up two weeks later?

I said it was skimworthy because--like your comment--it told us nothing about the alignment of any players. It was just a longwinded back-and-forth in which I corrected LynchMe on a partnership theory that only LynchMe believed. Neither Richard nor CMAR would be more or less likely to be lynched because of that discussion. I thought my thoughts on Axelrod and CMAR, on the other hand, might actually affect people's reads or opinions. Usually, I get accused of wall-of-texting, so I was trying to restrain myself.

Bleh. I understand my play looks remarkably similar to my play in the mini (of which I was indeed scum, lol), and not anything like my normal town play (ala, MSM4, or any other game I've played as town). Best I can say right now is I haven't had the time to wrap my head around the game.

Heh. Okay, so I wasn't just imagining it. My reasoning for putting you among my top suspects was partly because I thought you were playing a lot like you did in the mini. Eventually, you'd better step it up, but that post did sound genuine.

[Mina]

*twitch*

CSL, if you're wondering why you're getting lynched all the time...maybe it's because you're playing like you're pulling your scumreads out of a hat.

Look, instead of just giving up, how about if you just answer my case on you? Explain your backtrack on Raivann.

Also, here are your scumreads from your first post:

TOWN READS
Percy
Drippereth
Richard (claim believable)
Mina

SCUM READS
Kleedrac (Richard's claim is believable, so this guy looks scum)
Deer (He quit, and I have a scumread on him anyway)
danakillsu (Not been doing a good job, lately. I want to see him scumhunt a bit more)

Everyone else is either a neutral read, or lurkerscumbag

1) Your FOS of Richard is weird, because you listed him as a town read.

2) Why are you voting SSBF and HOS-ing dana, instead of the other way around?

Do you have any suspects other than the two players everyone is voting for?

@Mina: I understand your CSL case, I think it has a lot of merit, and I know you don't want us to forget it. That said, CSL is looking very unlikely to be the lynch right now. Why not help us and get behind dana or SSBF?

We have two weeks to the deadline. Two. WEEKS.

That doesn't mean we should twiddle our thumbs and do nothing. That DOES mean no lynch is impossible at this point.

I don't think a single player in the game has objected to the dana or SSBF wagons. You don't need my help. On the contrary, why doesn't someone look elsewhere? Everyone decided overnight that dana and SSBF are their top two suspects.

I understand why dana and SSBF are getting votes, but do you think that only the VIs and poor debaters are scum while all the strong reasonable players are town? In a game with multiple factions, it's easy for scum to genuinely scumhunt.

There's more I haven't responded to, but I have to leave for work now.

[Mina]

Hey, this is just a lame "I'm still alive, but insanely busy and having trouble keeping up with multiple games" post because I'm in a rush right now. I have thoughts on what I missed and responses to people's questions, but I don't have time to formulate them all into words.

After ISO-ing Raivann in Crimson King, I think it's highly unlikely that dana is his scumbuddy. Raivann didn't do more distancing than occasionally ask his buddies a one-line question, and voting for his buddy

after

someone counter-claimed his buddy. I doubt he'd call attention to danakillsu's slip; the drunk stream-of-conscious vote-and-unvote seemed spontaneous. Not sure about SSBF: Raivann might have improved his play since then and FOS-ed a buddy (even though he didn't do so in Crimson King, but I still think that makes SSBF

slightly

less likely to be Greyjoy Mafia.

Anyone voting for dana mostly for the Raivann connection should read Crimson King and make up their own mind. I actually think he's more likely to be Lannister Mafia (no, I don't have extra information, but there's obviously a Lannister faction) than Greyjoy Mafia.

I really want to do a full-length partnership and wagon analysis when I have more time. Please, no one end the day until I get a chance to do it. There's a shitload of information I'm getting just from the little I've done so far.

@LynchMe: I agree that the non-voters suck, but you seemed to have a problem with me voting for someone who wasn't SSBF or dana. You were telling me to vote for one of them so that we'd have more cohesion. What's the reason for the backtrack?

@MacavityLock: since you asked me, do you

disagree

that dana and SSBF are VIs? As I mentioned before, dana's play was extremely VI-ish and illogical in the one game I've played with him on this site. I have less experience with SSBF, but I know he's mentioned in a MD thread that he's never been nightkilled. Of course, I don't think "VI" and "scum" are mutually exclusive. It does mean that weak arguments and sloppy play alone aren't enough for me to vote for them.

And CSL is still obvobvobvobvobvscum. Come on. He changed his vote from SSBF to dana because he believed dana's claim, but thought we needed to lynch him to find out if he was telling the truth! Come. Fucking. On. Also, he shouldn't accuse people of AtE's when he's the one who pulled the "I get lynched all the time" card.

"A lynch > No Lynch" is not even a defence. In the first place, Raivann and CMAR were neck-and-neck, so a no-lynch wouldn't happen regardless of who you voted for.

Secondly, when I called you on it, you didn't say anything about avoiding a no-lynch. You said you voted found CMAR scummier than Raivann, EVEN THOUGH YOU ALREADY SAID YOU'D FOUND RAIVANN SCUMMIER. AND WHEN I CALLED YOU ON THIS BLATANT LIE, YOU BACKPEDALLED AND WENT BACK TO THE "I didn't want a no-lynch" STORY!

Why are people FOS-ing CSL and repeating over and over again how scummy he looks, but not voting him? I think the case on him is stronger than the case on danakillsu and SSBF. If CSL flips scum, I'm sure his buddy is among the players who are proclaiming that he's suspicious but not doing anything about it.

Benmage is also scummy, particularly his exuberance over wanting a claim from dana.

[Mina]

Hi, this is 50% a lame "I'm still alive, and sorry for flaking!" post. Since I fell asleep last night in the middle of a more substantial post, I figured I should remind people I'm still alive in case I have to stop before I get all my thoughts out. I'll be honest. I'm interested in where this game is heading, and I've never replaced out before (and don't plan to start), but I'm having severe trouble trying to stay active in all my games. I don't know if it's because I lack time, I'm slow and bad at multi-tasking, or I'm just not motivated. It's just that writing posts at the level of analysis I'm comfortable with has felt like pulling teeth lately. Which means...

@Mina re: 1115

– Did you read any other games with Raivann in your meta research? Also, since we had an unexpected break I’m hopeful you had sufficient chance to do you full-length research.

Um...yeah. See, um, I totally wrote a huge master post of analysis that turned the game around, but...my dog ate it.

I spent the break trying to catch up with the other games I've neglected. But let's see if I can draw some conclusions from Day One before the deadline. See, my problem is that I've seen people off-site break the game by logically eliminating scumbuddies to a few combinations, but whenever I try it myself, I always either make wrong assumptions or run around in circles of WIFOM. I suck at everything in Mafia except for not getting lynched.

Revenge of the Crimson King was the only Raivann-scum game I read. (I didn't realize there was more Raivann-scum meta.)

I have a big response to Percy coming up. (It might be this afternoon or evening, though, since I was supposed to do work for my dad today.) But quick comments first:

-I was another CSL-stabber, for obvious reasons. Stabbing actually harms the town more than scum, since it only takes away their PR (not their QT or NK), so everyone who didn't stab the scummy claimed vanilla deserves a smack.

Sorry, I may have completely lost track of this in my absence, but what is this referring to? I don't remember asking you anything about VIs. To answer your question though, dana seems like much more of a VI than SSBF does, at least in this game. I have limited experience with both: less than 1 game day with dana (he replaced into a game in which I was NK'ed N1), none with SSBF.

Sorry, MacavityLock. I mixed you up with xvart (who asked me that question). Okay, then.

xvart

, do you disagree that danakillsu and SSBF are VIs?

-That said, I suppose calling dana and SSBF "VIs" is a bit unfair considering the competition...

What the fuck do you do with players so stupid that their behaviour makes no sense for either alignment? If CSL is town, then I deeply regret ever mentioning this game to him after that spiteful and moronic VT claim and "you only think I'm scum because YOU'RE VOTING FOR ME." I'll admit that vezo seems so easy and stupid that lynching him feels like a waste. But this argument is a good one:

Is it just me, or is vezo at this point obv-Joffery from a Lannister-type scum group or Stannis from a Melisandre-type scum group? Claims "next in line to throne", then retracts the following day with a character so far from next in line, it's laughable. As much as I was reading vezo as super VI, this whole claim-and-retract business makes me think that a scum buddy slapped him down overnight and he got stuck with a crappy fake claim. Unvote. Vote: vezo.

Since our vig is probably dead, I'd be okay with a vezo lynch. I honestly just feel like it's a waste of information.

-I know that Percy asked Magna about Benmage's meta (EBWOPreview: I see that Magna cross-posted me...which tells you all something about my writing speed; my impression of BM was quite different from his), but I'll answer, since I agree with Magna.

I've seen Benmage play town, in WoT Mafia and another game (I think one of the Freaktowns). There, he was super-aggressive, abrasive, controversial, made a lot of crappy arguments and weak attacks on obvtown, and was a major lynch target. But he was totally unconcerned with what other people though of him. I see a difference here. He keeps stalling for time, ingratiating himself to people who aren't I doubt it, playing nice and going with the flow, blatantly bandwagoning, etc. He never even reacted emotionally to my attack on him on Day One. I think that if he were town, he'd get a lot more heated in response. Dude, I called him a PASSIVE-AGGRESSIVE BULLY.

Admittedly, that was over a year ago, so he might have improved his town game. (EBWOPreview: And I'm just skimming through BM's Iso in KoL, and he doesn't seem more abrasive than he is here.) But leaving aside meta, there's his contradiction on CMAR. After I pushed him for leaving his vote on CMAR so long, Benmage says that he suspects him, but then Benmage votes Raivann for totally no reason and uses the "we need to get a lynch" excuse. And his play today has been very sheepy and passive. He also committed one of my favourite scumtells: positively salivating at the mouth to get a claim out of dana. He was slightly better at the beginning of D1, but still seemed a lot more interested in defence than offence.

I'm no longer confident in the Rifka-Benmage connection (I'm pretty null on Rifka at the moment, and she seemed kind of bewildered by my links case). But I'm starting to think that Benmage is scum.

I'll save my thoughts on dana and SSBF for another post for readability. To be honest, I'm kind of conflicted on them.

[Mina]

I wasn't feeling well a couple of nights ago, but here's the SSBF and dana post I promised. But first:

Whoa, inaccurate AtE out of fucking nowhere.

Mina's AtE is horribly scummy. It bothers me that a good player is playing down their scumhunting skills, particularly in the middle of D2.

You don't know how much these quotes amuse me (and not just because they flatter my ego). Um...let me put it this way. If anyone seriously suspects me for that comment, then I will show about five examples of town meta in which I whine about how much I suck. I'm kind of notorious for it offsite. But it's true. I'm awesome at not getting lynched. But based purely on my percentage rate of nailing scum and getting them lynched, I've fallen flat on my face so many times that I tend to lack confidence in my suspicions.

So now that you've pointed out that that comment was an AtE, exactly what do you think the scum motivation for making a throwaway comment like that was, since I wasn't using it to sway suspicion away from me? (Directed mostly at Locke Lamora, who didn't even suspect me, but is now parroting Percy and calling it "horribly scummy.") Really, if there was a scummy AtE in that post, it was "boohoo, I can't help being this lurky and useless." Is it just Scumhunting By Wiki along the lines of "1 count of AtE = 1.5 scumpoints + 2 counts of buddying = 2 x 1 scumpoint = 3.5 scumpoints"? I've already mentioned on Day One that I hate it when a townie explodes or reacts in an emotional and genuine manner and someone uses "AtE" as an excuse to ignore any towntells he's making.

------------------------------

Yes, I'm aware of the irony that although I've been complaining about the sheepy "Vote: dana/FOS: SSBF" and "Vote: SSBF/FOS: dana" posts, at least two of my three top lynch choices (CSL, Benmage, and vezo) are "easy targets." (That said, there's someone else I'd like to draw some attention to if I have time.)

I'll be entirely honest about two things. Firstly, there's way too much information to process in this thread, so I think I've tuned out both dana and SSBF a little because I've been focused elsewhere.

Secondly, I've already admitted that I'm biased against popular wagons. My post was more a backlash against all the sheepy "Vote: dana/FOS: SSBF"/"Vote: SSBF/FOS: dana" posts than a defence of dana and SSBF. And it was also annoyance that people were ignoring my awesome CSL wagon for what I thought were lesser cases. People are looking elsewhere now, so it's gotten better. But you didn't think there was

something

weird about every single person in the game going after the same two easy targets? Sure, a few people brought up points against a couple of other players, but there was no real momentum elsewhere. Off the top of my head, there might have been two or three votes that weren't for either dana or SSBF midway through the day.

I use "VI" a bit generously. No, they don't act like vezo and blatantly bandwagon or change their role claims. But they belong to a certain category of player that I have difficulty reading and that tend to be my blind spot. They're all over the place, they post a lot of noise (making them hard to read), and they commit a lot of "misplays" (for example, SSBF defending Benmage for no reason). They're players who get lynched repeatedly as town. That said, I've given scum with that playstyle before a free pass. So it's like...I can see where the accusations against them are coming from, but I'm just not convinced that they're scum.

But fuck it. I think this:

You two have been pressuring me so much that I say things that SEEM inconsistent. It's ridiculous. You say, "This is scummy". Then I say "Anyone could do that. This is my perspective". Then you say "That's retconning. Lynch him". What am I supposed to do other than tell you what I thought at the time? However, the things I have said are NOT inconsistent. I thought Raivann was scummy, but didn't make that very obvious. I asked everyone why they were voting for him INSTEAD of Kleedrac, with the implication that Kleedrac was a better lynch. The responses I got convinced me that Raivann was scummier than I originally thought. But I still wanted to lynch Kleedrac/Budja more.

sounds townish.

Mod ~ Edited quote tag

I don't think him being more emotionally committed to a Kleedrac lynch than a Raivann lynch is damning now that I think dana probably isn't Raivann's scumbuddy. Him staying on Kleedrac and acting as if the CMAR lynch was a given while Raivann was a viable alternative was scummy, but I feel as though Benmage's and CSL's inconsistencies were more cut-and-dry instances of "I'm making up scumreads as I go along because I don't care who we lynch as long as it's not me," whereas I could see dana's flip-flop coming from poor town. (He didn't vote CMAR, only stayed on Kleedrac.) It's a lot more subtle, and could be attributed to ego, confusion, or laziness....But I just realized I forgot about his horrible FOS of Percy while caving in to his pressure, irritability, vote on SSBF when SSBF was the competing wagon, and sheeping of the group's suspects...ugh, his play really is a mess. It's just that I'm not all that confident that he's scum. Fuck, I wish dana had explained his Percy FOS before replacing out instead of getting irritable and defensive.

Percy brought up meta showing Raivann does bus sometimes (although his link to the Raivann!scum game isn't working). But I still think the Raivann-dana interaction is too genuine. Drippereth and MacavityLock both got townreads off Raivann purely because of his reaction to dana's "scum" reveal. I just think it's too spontaneous for Raivann to vote a buddy for claiming scum, then get outraged that no one else noticed it, then to realize it was an alcohol-induced thing, then to finally remove his vote later when called on it. Considering how badly Raivann played as scum, I think it's more likely that he was genuinely scumhunting for the other faction.

Dana's claim is a null tell. It's a little frustrating (and unbelievable) how many power roles have been outed or killed in the first two days. And Brynden Tully is an odd choice for a jailkeeper. That said, I know Faraday has used a jailkeeper before, and a jailkeeper seems like a good fit in a set-up with multiple killing roles and potentially a cop (given the godfather flip). Saying dana is scum because his claim isn't limited is a bad argument (in the mini, there were limited AND full power roles). And considering dana RAISED Drippereth (and suspected Percy), Dripp was a logical heal target for danakillsu.

Either way, although I'm uneasy about I doubt it, I agree with him that I'd rather leave dana alive to eat a nightkill. Hey, scum! The protown jailkeeper just revealed. Even better, if you're being sincere about your opinions in the thread, at least 75% of you think dana is scum. And if you're a Greyjoy and dana isn't one of your buddies...well, don't you want the Lannister roleblocker flip to distract everyone from looking for Raivann's buddies? Of course, it's probably too late for this plan to work, since everyone in the game has vocally declared how much they want to lynch him.

I'm getting a very mixed read from SSBF. Earlier on, he came across as though he was making an effort, but makes weird opportunistic votes, weak arguments, and odd comments out of nowhere that seem like filler instead of actual scumhunting. And for some reason, he keeps on sucking up to me and crediting me with cases others have made. His interactions with Raivann do look a lot like classic distancing. Him staying off the dana wagon when it gained steam (unlike dana's reaction to him) is a point in his favour, though. I do need to reread him, because I want to see if there's any contradiction in his excuse for reviving my response to LynchMe.

dana and SSBF have both committed scumtells (although they've also made a couple of towntells), but I just don't get that feeling of naked opportunism I get with CSL or Benmage. Their posts don't really seem to advance a scum agenda. I'll use "I was right about Raivann being scum and CMAR and Kleedrac being town" to trumpet my killer VI-reading instincts (shush, no one mention that I trusted Raivann after his claim and voted Kleedrac, or that I said up above that I'm always wrong, because...um, that doesn't count).

So Percy, now I have a question for you. You seem convinced that dana, SSBF, AND CSL are scum. Is there any doubt in your mind that one of your reads might be wrong?

[Mina]

ARGH! I hate deadlines!

There's lots of stuff I want to comment on, but you know what?

Vote: vezokpiraka

I feel bad doing this when he's V/LA because of a death, but I think he's much more likely to be scum than dana is. The dana wagon feels like CMAR and Kleedrac all over again. Not being able to string a coherent case together and needlessly softclaiming--fine, I can see that from weak town. But him going from "next in line to the throne" to Meera Reed...and trying to cover it by saying, "All girls are princesses" makes no sense. He didn't say royalty, he said "next in line to the throne." Also, look at this:

You do realize that my first post with the throne was in RVS.

The part wuth the RVS was just there to calm you people down. I don't take seriously anythign that happens in RVS.

First he uses the fact that his claim was in RVS in his defence. Then when caught, he doesn't say he mixed up the time. He admits to lying and saying it was RVS SO WE WOULD GET OFF HIS BACK. It's a sign he's not as dumb as he looks; he's being dishonest with his motivations and is just saying stuff to manipulate us. Yes, I know the players on his wagon are horrible (although I've actually liked MacavityLock overall), but they might just be from the other team. I'd rather vote for someone who has been caught in a lie than someone who is just playing badly and being inconsistent.

I'd probably prefer an SSBF lynch to a dana lynch, but I need to reread SSBF.

[Mina]

Benmage, I don't have time to bring up all the points against you or correct every single thing you've said right now (in a nutshell, I agree with Axelrod's and Thor's assessments of your play, and think your sudden boost in content and overaggressive defence looks a lot like arrogant scum who overestimates his abilities and thinks he can scare people away from attacking him by throwing words at them), but why are you quoting random sentences out of context in Thor's posts and trying to come up with a snappy reply to it?

Can you please stop it? Your questions aren't even helping find scum. Why did you feel the need to bring up that Thor was surprised Dripp was one of the highest posters, or ask if he's seen scum overpost

when he wasn't even making a case on you for overposting

, or ask him if he considers lurking a scumtell? You're just filling the thread with noise.

Also, randomly bringing up the post counts just to say, "SEE! SEE! Look at my post count! It's high!" was pathetically pathetic.

[Mina]

I have to leave, and there's another game I'm supposed to catch up on, but I can't resist.

ARGH! I hate deadlines!

There's lots of stuff I want to comment on, but you know what?

Vote: vezokpiraka

This vote is bad. Do you honestly think a Vezo wagon is going to go anywhere this close to deadline? Did you even look at who is on that wagon? What has changed between your CSL crusade and this to make you vote Vezo? This vote stinks. I now feel much worse about you than I did at the end of D1.

I'm trying very hard not to be REALLY snarky right now.

If you think a vezo wagon isn't going to go anywhere, then do you think a CSL wagon was MORE likely to go somewhere? My vote has been on CSL all day. I've been repeating over and over just why CSL is scummy. Clearly, it hasn't helped. Now that there's a day left and people are already going, "Gee, I'm not that sure that dana is scum, but you know, there's no time left, so guess there's no choice!", I'm trying my second suspect. Because I'm fucking tired of watching players whose cases I'm lukewarm on get lynched at deadline. Percy obviously won't keep his vote on CSL if it's a choice between CSL and dana. A bunch of people have mentioned they suspect vezo. If I vote him, it's four on the wagon instead of three. It's worth a try.

(That said, to be honest, I've been debating moving my vote to vezo since his slip, because vezo's backtrack sounds like a lie, whereas CSL

could

just be a terrible town player. I skimmed through some of CSL's meta recently, and although I didn't pick up any scum-specific tells, he did play badly in both his town and scum game. Some of CSL's reaction to his stabbing--seeming totally surprised that someone would stab him because he's a VT, for example--actually sounds genuine.)

Obviously, I noticed who was on the vezo wagon:

Yes, I know the players on his wagon are horrible (although I've actually liked MacavityLock overall), but they might just be from the other team.

Do you disagree that vezo's backtrack is scummy, LynchMePls? Or are you saying it IS scummy, but I shouldn't vote for him because 1) his lynch totally isn't viable, and 2) you suspect the people on his wagon, so HOW DARE anyone go against your opinion that it's a proven fact that Drippereth, MacavityLock and Dana are all scum?

You'd have a point if you thought I was dana's buddy and was averting the lynch elsewhere. But apparently, my vote is scummy because my vezo vote won't accomplish anything. Do you just think I just forgot that I said I have a scum read on CSL?

Look. I don't suspect you for reasons you already know, but to be honest, I have not liked much of your reasoning for your suspicions throughout this game. I find you act with too much certainty that certain players are scum and then base your other reads on reactions to those players.

Speaking of which, whatever happened to your Axelrod suspicions? Before you said that if one of CMAR, Richard, and Axel wasn't scum, you'd eat your hat. But since then, you seem to have completely ignored him. He didn't even make your most recent list of scumreads.

For the record, I'd move to SSBF now if it's a choice between him and dana, because I hate his most recent posts.

[Mina]

I) Thor

@Richard - Flavor: I'm Robb Stark the king in the North. My vig is from my pet wolf apparently.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

*clears throat*

Sorry. It's just...if you'd read the mini...yeah. Faraday clearly has a sense of humour.

I approve 100% of the vezo daykill. But damn it, why do players who are already obvtown have to be the ones with provable roles?

----------------------------------

2) The Trial

FOS: anyone suggesting that Percy step forward,

for trying to get us to waste a chance at preventing a mislynch on a player who will be nightkilled eventually. Okay, if Percy is scum, then whose buddy do you think he is? Raivann's or danakillsu's?

I'd have rather waited to see who would put themselves forward and who would try to escape notice. So far, we've caught Benmage trying to pressure the Hand into stepping forward while not doing himself until anyone else did. (CSL actually came across as kind of genuine about wanting to prove himself.) But that horse has left the stables. The whole town has to do this together for it to work.

Step Forward

I think that SSBF should be nominated to prove himself instead of lynched. Right now, pretty much everyone would be okay with lynching him. He's also been the counterwagon to a Mafia godfather, and has links to the other flipped godfather. So it would be a good idea to have his alignment settled once and for all, and then concentrate on the other players in the game. Not only has everyone taken a stand on him, but afterwards, we can forget about him and start a fresh set of mobs to analyze. If he flips scum at the end of the day, then he gets "hacked to pieces" that night. But if he flips town, then we save ourselves what was a guaranteed mislynch.

Vote: SSBF

as most worthy.

----------------------------------

3) Benmage

That said, if I had to vote for someone to

lynch

, it would actually be Benmage over CSL at this point. Not only because of how he tried to get us to waste our chance to clear someone on Percy. His play is all-around scummy.

(I had to leave Saturday night, and caught Benmage's spamathon. Since then, I've been debating how best to approach this. Never mind that I should really do a lynch mob analysis, which is more productive, instead of indulging my sadism in humiliating a scumbag who thinks he's a lot more competent as scum than he actually is. See, I'm not a very organized person. But trying to form a logical case out of the mess that is Benmage is a feat of organization. You can't just quote him and show all the times he's scummy. So much crap is flying out in all directions that it's hard to catch it all and contain it. What to do? To point out each of the dozens of times he claims he doesn't do something WHILE DOING IT IN THE SAME POST? To respond to every single one of his inane questions after I've accused him of deliberately spamming the thread with inane questions, even though it will just encourage him to fill the thread with more white noise and inane questions in response? To ignore most of it and just give a summary of my issues with him, with five zillion quotes illustrating each point?

Hint for next game, after you're lynched: I was not at all the best person on whom to try that act you pulled on I doubt it. For one thing, I'm not scum, so I won't immediately try to appease you and run away with my tail tucked between my legs. For another thing...let me put it this way. You see, you may have assumed that I'm easy pickings because my join date is October 2009, but I've had an intermediate amount of experience off-site. And as bad as I am at reading people, I'm not all that bad at debating when I make an effort. Particularly not with someone who can barely form complete sentences.)

I don't think your interaction with I doubt it was distancing (although it struck me at the time that I doubt it's reaction to Benmage was rather nonchalant), but I like you for a Greyjoy.

----------------------------------

4) The Night Kills

Axelrod, unless you think there's any possible way that "drowned" wasn't a Greyjoy kill, then we know "poisoning" is a Lannister flavour. (In the mini, Cersei was the poisoner.) I'm not sure what happened to Budja on N1 (if he really suicided or it was a Greyjoy kill), but clearly, Raivann and I doubt it were vig/SK kills due to "hacked to pieces." Since SSBF is much more likely to be a Greyjoy than a Lannister, he probably wasn't behind the jvw kill.

But I can see one other good reason why someone would poison julienvonwolfe on N1 and LynchMePls on N2. A very good reason.

Care to reveal anything, Cow?

[Mina]

Ah, sorry.

Unvote

Vote: Benmage

I may change this when I get off my ass and actually reread Days One and Two. Aah, I just noticed something:

Excuse me? Why didn't you hammer dana, since he's the closest to a lynch, and deadline is practically BREATHING DOWN OUR NECKS?!?

If dana is scum, I'd keep a close eye on you, Mina.

1) This is hilarious, because CSL never joined the dana mob. And yet even though deadline was BREATHING DOWN OUR NECKS, he didn't hammer in that post in which he berated me for hammering.

2) That last part makes him a possible Lannister who knows what dana will flip.

[Mina]

EBWOP: Um...in that post in which he berated me for NOT hammering.

[Mina]

SECOND EBWOP: Oh...

...oh.

Never mind. I...I forgot that CSL lost his vote on D2. Ignore that last part.

[Mina]

THIRD EBWOP: And by last part, I mean "first part" (i.e., Point #1 is invalidated).

I give up. I should not be allowed to post on a forum with no Edit function.

[Mina]

What does everyone else think of Percy being put forward? He does have two votes, after all.

Thank you for claiming scum, Locke Lamora.

[Mina]

Pay attention. I'm also holding it (as well as more in that post) against Locke.

There is no evidence implying that Percy is scum. Your strategy is to roll a dice and hope he drew a scum PM, because he's so good that we mere mortals have no help of catching him. There's a chance that he's a Greyjoy who bussed Raivann (which would explain the jump to CMAR and back) or a serial killer, so I won't put odds of Percy scum at 0%. (The only point I can hold against Percy is that other than Richard early on D1, I don't think there's been a single popular lynch he hasn't agreed with.) But if he's

not

scum, then we wasted the best chance we had to clear a player who would have been otherwise lynched.

If we're looking at players that won't ever get lynched because people are calling them obvtown (despite not actually doing anything obvtown), then how about Cow? Why doesn't Cow step forward?

[Mina]

Well, fuck. I take back everything I said. Locke, you are incredible.

Suggesting Percy step forward "because two other people had voted for him," without stepping up yourself was practically claiming scum. Suggesting Percy step forward because you singlehandedly caught the scariest possible scum player in the game makes me want to bear your children, and repeat once again that no, I wasn't appealing to emotion before when I said my strength is not getting lynched, THIS KIND OF EMBARRASSMENT HAPPENS TO ME THREE TIMES A GAME WHEN I'M TOWN!

Incidentally, once Percy flips scum, I suggest we take a much closer look at Mina and Rifka.

In my defence, I'll say that my plan was good in theory (since those who wanted him to step forward gave zero reasons for why Percy MIGHT be scum, just said, "well, let's just investigate him to be on the safe side!"), and that my play on Day One makes little sense if I was Raivann's buddy. (At least Percy made a jump to CMAR before placing his "second vote" on Raivann afterward and then leaving it there with no explanation. I was singlemindedly pushing Raivann the whole day and defending the counterwagon.)

There's also the matter of whether we think the Hound is likely to be innocent-aligned, but Diddin at least told the truth about who he was, which encourages me a little.

I think the Hound being innocent makes sense as an in-joke to the mini (like Robb Stark the one-shot dayvig).

As much as I was looking forward to owning Benmage with a case...fuck. I'm not sure if Benmage can be scum anymore based on links. I don't have work today, so I think I'll get off my ass and do that wagon analysis.

For the record, guys, after hascow's horrendous response to my hint about the nightkills, I'm 80% sure that hascow is a Lannister. He also got very defensive in the QT last night when Percy suggested that the early SSBF voters might have been Lannisters. I've been deliberately holding back my suspicions of him for my own reasons, but I've had my eye on him since Day One. Would anyone like me to make a huge case on him afterward? He is right now my top choice to be either lynched or proven worthy today.

Unvote

Vote: hasdgfas

Later, I'll paraphrase everyone's posts in the QT to point out possible links and distancing.

Need to think about if Percy was distancing from CSL. Considering he tried to use his double-vote to be on both the Raivann and CMAR wagons, I think he'd use his second vote as a means to create distance. At the time, I'd wondered why Percy seemed to suspect SSBF more than CSL, and called CSL "the biggest VI and the one whose links to other players are hardest to read", but left his vote on CSL all day instead of SSBF. I think there's something off there, and that one of CSL or SSBF is a Greyjoy.

Right now, I'm thinking Lynch: SSBF or CSL/Prove: hasdgfas (or possibly vice-versa). vezo can be left for another day.

[Mina]

Aah, I've been working on my paraphrase of the QT for the past several hours, but vezo, UNVOTE! We need to wait until the Challenge Period is over before lynching anyone. SSBF is now at L-2!

[Mina]

That said, yeah, get your ass in here and post, SSBF.

Percy's desire to have vezok dayvigged is making me think vezo is either town or Lannister-aligned. SSBF is in Theme Park as of this post, so he better post soon

.Also, although it's taking me, yeah, vezo is almost certainly not a Greyjoy. Percy spends a lot of time in the QT on D2 speculating on how vezo is probably Joffrey Lannister who messed up his fakeclaim.

[Mina]

EBWOP: although it's taking me forever to write up that paraphrase, and I might just stick to N1 today. Also, Percy speculates in the QT on N2, not D2.

[Mina]

[Mina]

Oh. My. God.

CSL, are you doing this on purpose? Did you miss the part where WE LOSE A FREE COP INSPECT if we lynch before the week is up? UNVOTE! Anyone who's town on the SSBF wagon, unvote now and just revote him afterward! Also, didn't you notice the part where Locke claimed a guilty on him?

Whoever puts SSBF at L-1 or hammers is confirmed scum.

But that said...um, SSBF, how about instead of giving us useless blathering on theory, you say which players in particular should be lynched/investigated?
==================================================
I asked Eddard Stark, and he said I could paraphrase our QT, but not quote it. (I guess Percy's quote happened too quickly for Faraday to punish it.) Cow, feel free to correct me if you think I've got anything wrong.

On N1, I received an invitation telling me that I'd been selected to join the Sworn Brotherhood of the Kingsguard. Here's a synopsis of what went down there. I'll go into as much detail as possible, just to point out suspicious comments and motives for a NK. I'll just do N1 for now, because the QT is looooong.

Night One

1)

LynchMePls

writes an awesome introduction post with lots of geeky flavour and formal courtly language about why he chose each of us as knights to serve in Ser Barristan the Bold's newly formed Kingsguard. It's irrelevant now, but seriously, you have to check our QT out after the game. It was so cool. He points out that he breadcrumbed his role in his first post of the game. He explains that he was looking for players who 1) were intelligent (not VIs), and 2) he thought were town (although that second one didn't work out so well).

In a nutshell, his reasons for choosing us:

-Percy: LMP had decided from the beginning to elect the Hand into the Kingsguard. Reiterates that he thought Percy was a great choice for Hand, and meets both requirements.
-Drippereth: LMP liked their mix of passion and logic, and also said we'd get two players at once with their inclusion.
-Hascow: LMP liked his defence from Axelrod's attack, as well as his observation, wisdom, and ability to make good points in concise ways.
-Mina: LynchMe says that he initially had doubts about me, but that toward the end, he thought my playstyle was brave and that I'm willing to challenge players whose opinions are different from my own.
-Raivann: LMP wanted Raivann to join the kingsguard so we could direct the vig kill, and also so we could keep an eye on him.
-Seventh spot: Blank. LynchMe's idea was for us to decide on who the kingsguard would be.

2)

Hascow

says it's okay, he was also geeking out, more welcoming stuff, etc. He says he'd have to look at the game again to see who he'd pick as the seventh. Says we have a pretty good group so far, and that Raivann was a good choice whatever you thought of his play. Asks if we should trust each other to nameclaim or roleclaim, or if we should keep it a secret just in case there are scum in the QT.

(That rose a minor red flag at the time.)

3)

Raivann

is excited to be on the kingsguard, says he knew lynchmepls was town, and votes for xvart to join. (

I personally think this rules xvart out as a Greyjoy

, because I don't think Raivann would have been that bold when there were already two Greyjoys on the guard.)

4)

Raivann

posts again, and reiterates that LMP is obvtown because of his abilities. In his follow-up post, he ranks the kingsguard from trustworthy to least trustworthy as follows: Raivann, LynchMePls, Drippereth, Cow, Percy, Mina.

5) I (

Mina

) geek out a little (and style myself Dame Mina the Evil Pink Butterfly), thank LMP for the invitation, and say it's too bad I already had a town read on him. I say that although he made good picks overall, I don't fully trust all the players in this topic, so we shouldn't claim--and that judging from the flips, names are more closely linked to abilities than in the mini. I say that my top choice would be Thor (because of how genuine he looked when he pushed an alternate lynch mob to CMAR), but that I need to reread him. I ask Percy if he'd like to address my suspicions of him from the main thread in the QT. I say that I'm excited to see Raivann there, because I'd started typing up an analysis explaining why he shouldn't vig Richard, but the thread was locked before I could post it.

6) After noticing that I've been cross-posted, I (

Mina

) ask Raivann if he has actual reasons for suspecting me, or if he's just doing so because I was scum and he didn't catch on in the mini (and enjoy his paranoia). I post my huge--MONSTROUS--analysis with underlining and bullets, calculating the number of confirmed towns we'd get, suspects we'd eliminate, and scum we'd catch in all scenarios (Richard!town gets vigged, Richard!scum gets vigged, Richard!town is spared and Loras claims, Richard!scum is spared and Loras doesn't claim). There's no point in me paraphrasing it, but can I just say that I would have never wasted my time doing that had I been Raivann's scumbuddy?

7)

Raivann

says he suspects me both because of my ability as scum, and because my defence of Richard made him wary of me. He then asks me what I thought of LynchMePls' case against Richard, and if I was confident that LMP was town when I dismissed his case.

8) I (

Mina

) wonder out loud if Renly and Loras would ever be fakeclaims. I advise against nominating xvart to the kingsguard (sorry, xvart), because I found him much less protown than in the mini, say I disliked his behaviour concerning CMAR at the end of the day, and found his jumps aboard the Richard and Deer wagons sheepy. I say he's playing the kind of reasonable game without much passion or conviction that any decent player could pull off as scum. But I say I need to reread him. I tell Percy that's why I asked him about his townread of xvart, although I grant him he might just see eye-to-eye with xvart about dana.

9) I (

Mina

) write a huge post answering Raivann's questions in #7 and explaining the evolution of my thoughts on Richard and LynchMePls. (If someone thinks it would be useful at discerning my alignment, I can paraphrase it, but I won't bother now because both players are confirmed town.) I mention in it that I had a gut town read of Axelrod and disliked Cow's weakly reasoned FOS of him. At the end, I ask Raivann what made him so sure that Richard was scum, and which parts of LMP's case did he like and which parts dislike.

10)

Raivann

answers my questions. He discusses Richard, LMP, and CMAR, but since all have flipped or been confirmed, I don't think it's relevant.

11)

Percy

also geeks out at being invited into the Kingsguard, and says that he approves of his choices (especially Raivann ). Says that even if Raivann is scum, we can direct the kill choice and keep an eye on him, and if he's town, we get to help the vig.

This part is beautiful. He says that he understands why people have doubts about him, but that he's frustrated that three of the Kingsguard members (LMP, Drippereth, me) have all said there's something suspicious about Percy, but can't explain what. He says that he'll answer questions we have, but won't respond to vague suspicions. And he chides us because it might have swayed away a town protective role from him! He's town, and he knows that he'll be nightkilled eventually, but if he's killed tonight, we shouldn't discount the effect the three of us might have had on the doctor. (I totally fell for this in the QT.)

Agrees that LMP is almost completely confirmed town. Disagrees with my analysis on why Loras should claim tomorrow.

He answers my in-thread question about his town read on xvart. Firstly, he says part of it was context--he was solidifying his Raise vote of xvart over Drippereth. He says to look at xvart's ISO early in the game. He says it's intelligent scumhunting, especially xvart's attack of danakillsu and probing of SSBF. (

Could be distancing from SSBF

.) Says that his townread has eroded since then because of xvart's absence.

He defends himself against my "softly supporting the popular wagons" and "planting seeds of doubt" comments. The only relevant bit (now that we know he's confirmed scum) was that he knows Unsight accused him of planting seeds of doubt, but that he has a reason for probing at Unsight; Percy finds it hard to read players like that who just pop up now and then with erudite observations, so accusing them of being scum gets them talking. (Based on this,

I don't think Unsight is a Greyjoy

. The way he talks about "probing for motivations" makes me think it isn't distancing. Like with Raivann vs. dana, this looks more like scumhunting for the other faction.)

He advises Raivann to shoot one of {danakillsu, SSBF, vezopiraka, CSL, Kinetic}. Considering he knew Raivann's kill was fake,

there is a high chance that one of the people on that list is his scumbuddy

(Caveat: since his targets were all group suspects, it's nothing conclusive). Says that four of them are better off vigged than alive, but that perhaps SSBF is better off keeping around for another day. (

I'd say this counter-intuitively makes SSBF a less likely Greyjoy. Would Percy bother to subtly defend a buddy when he knows the kill won't go through? But again, it's not conclusive either way.

)

12)

LynchMePls

talks about flavour analysis (the Umber flip told him the Starks were good guys), his Richard-CMAR-Axelrod case, and his disagreement with my "don't vig Richard and make Loras claim tomorrow" plan. It isn't really relevant, now that he and Richard are confirmed town. But he advocates a {danakillsu, SSBF, CSL, Kinetic} vig, then adds as an afterthought that vezo or Axelrod would also be good choices.

13)

Percy

suggests julienvonwolfe as the final Kingsguard and makes the softclaim. He then suggests we narrow the vig down to two players. He suggests dana for being "obvscum" or CSL for being "lurkerscum." I'm neutral on whether this was distancing from CSL, since he goes on to vote CSL the next day.

14)

LynchMePls

says we should narrow the vig down to four players.

15)

Hascow

agrees that 3-4 is a good number for vig targets. Says his vig choices are SSBF, Axelrod, and vezo. In response to my comment about his Axelrod FOS, he says that although he didn't expect everyone to agree with it, he didn't like Axelrod's play. He thought Axelrod didn't put enough effort into scumhunting and making cases, but he understands how I could have a gut town read on a suspect, since Cow's done that before. He tells Raivann (in response to a comment I left out about catching scum in the RVS) that there's nothing wrong with relying on RVS reads. He disagrees with LMP's Umber catch, saying we don't know for sure that the Starks aren't a scumgroup and we shouldn't count anyone out. He also supports Thor as an option for the Kingsguard. I remember this post gave me mixed vibes. I liked his reasoning for his Axelrod suspicions (although he'd FOSsed Axel for something else--his attacking Drippereth's playstyle without naming Dripp) and his Thor nomination, but got the feeling he was being vague and trying to appease. Also thought he might have been sheeping LMP by pushing an Axel vig.

{I'll leave out a few posts, since they're just LMP, Cow, and Percy discussing how many players should be on the vig list, vigging theory, and Vengeful games. We also all wonder why Drippereth hasn't checked in. Point of interest: Percy reread Thor and said he's good with him, as well as JVW.}

16) I (

Mina

) write a giant, rambling wall. I'll leave out some of my stream-of-consciousness observations but in it, I:
-compliment LMP on being in his second game and playing so well.
-wonder where are Drippereth and Raivann (who's stopped posting in the QT), and whatever happened to Locke Lamora.
-say that my top suspects are CSL and Kinetic, but speculate that CSL could be Loras (based on his reaction to Richard's claim).
-admit that I actually WAS trying to set up Percy for an eventual nightkill, because like I reasoned early on D1, we can't leave a scum double-voter alive in endgame...but that oh shit, Percy's defence post sounded really townish, what have I done...and my case was pretty much all just bad vibes, so feel free to post that defence in the main thread tomorrow and I'll answer. I was also afraid that I'd be killed on N1, so I wanted to get all my suspicions out before I died.
-say that after ISO-ing xvart, he looks more townish than I remembered, and that I'd be okay with him joining (but prefer jvw or Thor). Get paranoid that Thor's following of me and Percy onto Raivann and last-minute wagon of Budja when it was too late to work could be scummy, but say that the execution looks townish.

17) LMP decides to break the tie by inviting julienvonwolfe into the kingsguard.

Thread closed.

[Mina]

EBWOP: I mean, didn't you notice, CSL, that Locke got a guilty result on Percy? Or did you just skim and see the daykill?

Benmage, it worries me that I agree with you.

There's a lot of interesting stuff from N2, but I'm out of time right now. Maybe later.

Anyway, if you'll notice, early on D2, DGB mentions that neither she nor Elli checked the Drippereth account PMs that night. Obviously, it was a response to all of us wondering why they hadn't shown up. In hindsight, I should have realized this made Drippereth a confirmed vanilla townie, but I thought at the time that they might have still been scum who didn't take an action that night and just hung out in their QT because I'm an idiot (I'll elaborate more on this another day).

Since D2, I've been certain that Raivann's team was behind the jvw kill, and that we helpfully talked the Greyjoys into killing julienvonwolfe instead of xvart. The drowning kill changes things, of course. Notice that Percy was very quick to come to the opposite conclusion--that "poisoning" and "driving someone to suicide" weren't Greyjoy kill flavours (in the QT, he said that "poisoning" wasn't a Greyjoy flavour in response to my post. That's why drowning makes me. LMP was actually coming under mild suspicion. The odds that the same killer would take out both jvw and LMP without knowing who they are would be slim. That's why I think there's a Lannister on the kingsguard. If SSBF flips town or Greyjoy, then unless Axelrod is a Lannister and made that case to deliberately frame SSBF, there's no motivation for it.

I think that someone stopped the Greyjoy kill on N1.

No one reveal anything now, but just remember this (or reveal what's up with "suicide") when it's time to massclaim.

[Mina]

EBWOP: wow, I really didn't edit that second-to-last paragraph properly. Anyway, I just realized that Percy never said that "suicide" wasn't a Greyjoy kill method. (I mixed it up with MoI's set-up speculation.) Here's the quote:

[quote=Percy]Perhaps he was "hired" to do a job he couldn't carry out for some reason, or it's

an obtuse kill method

. I don't think we should be assuming that Budja is an hero.[/quote]
On N2, I mentioned in the QT that I thought we'd helpfully advised the Greyjoys to kill julienvonwolfe. LynchMePls agreed with me. Meanwhile, Percy says that poisoning is a Lannister kill method, not a Greyjoy kill method.

Budja still seems to be an unlikely choice, but I suppose it could have been an attempt at a crosskill. Drippereth has been on to Percy all game (and I apologize to them in their graves for ever doubting them), so he had a motive to kill them. But I know Percy expressed some suspicion of Drippereth in the QT (he even said he liked her as a Lannister), although I don't know if it was sincere. Scum!Percy would have an interest in eliminating those who could nightkill him as quickly as possible.

So take back what I said about the Greyjoy kill being blocked.

[Mina]

I was going to start my paraphrase of the N2 QT (it's shorter, but there is some juicy stuff there), but it's late. I'll save it for tomorrow.

diddin

, Gregor Clegane and Vargo Hoat are both aligned with the Lannisters. The hacked-to-pieces killer must be at worst a neutral, although I have no idea which character would work as a SK given the flips we've had so far. (That said, Jaime Lannister hacked people to pieces in the mini.) Anyway, let's not speculate on it until we get a few more kills.

Thor

, maybe the Percy flip has made me more disposed to investigations on stronger players (although I still dislike the strategy of rolling a dice and hoping a good player drew a scum PM if you don't have concrete reasons to suspect them), but I'm now leaning toward a SSBF lynch and hasdgfas...um, worthiness-proving. Cow is the kind of player I'm a little antsy about lynching without an investigation, even leaving aside the kill evidence.

xvart

:
1) The invitations were sent out at the beginning of N1.

2) Remember how in the mini, each player had his own kill flavour? So even though both you and Percy were Lannister kills, your throat was slashed (you're welcome ), while Percy and Locke were hacked to pieces. It's possible (albeit unlikely) that one Greyjoy kills people by driving them to suicide. We'll worry about it during massclaim (in which case a doc gives us a confirmed not-Greyjoy or jailkeeper/RB gives us a potential Greyjoy).

3)

Woah. Isn't this like calling the kettle black? You are accusing someone of active lurking and then you go off on not knowing who killed Percy, congratulating them, and not seeing the last few posts saying "hold off on the SSBF votes?" And the cheerleading...

Actually, um...I just noticed something about CSL. But I'd like a reaction from CSL to my post (since it doesn't seem like he's reading the thread) first.

Benmage

, this is kind of annoying. I was supposed to rip you to shreds today and teach you that bullying never pays! Stop making me love you!

On the bright side, making a case on Hascow will take much less effort than making a case on you. For one thing, his post count is lower.

@Mina – Given your absolute refusal to see dana as scum why should we not be considering you as the theorized Lannister on the Kingsguard?

In all honesty, I could see myself as a Lannister from an outside POV. I mention in the QT on N2 that I expected to get a lot of heat today for my defence of danakillsu. (Instead, I'm getting heat for being a potential Greyjoy, even though I'm probably the second least likely player in the game who isn't confirmed town--Mikujin is first--to be a Greyjoy based on my D1 interaction with Raivann.) My defence, however, is that my motivations don't make sense for someone who knew that danakillsu would flip scum.

I'll be honest and admit that I actually DID try a gambit once (on another site) in which my buddies and I all blatantly defended each other and complimented each other's cases. It worked because the players we were up against were the kind who would go through every sentence in a flipped scum's post and eliminate partners if he or she spontaneously volunteered a defence or positive opinion of them. But I don't think it would work on mafiascum (maybe with DGB, since she uses the same defend = not-a-buddy, jump-late-on-the-wagon = buddy logic).

When danakillsu was being wagoned, I ignored both him and the counterwagon that was the only viable way to save his life. I just sat in my corner shouting, "Hey, over here! Anyone suspect CSL? Anyone?" Then I drew a lot of needless attention to myself with my last-minute defence of dana. To be honest, I knew the chances of the vezo counterwagon working one day before the lynch were slim to nil. Had I been scum, I would have evaluated the risk and decided not to bother. But since I'd thought there was nothing to lose by defending him, I tried to get players on my suspect list lynched instead of sitting back and watching another town read be a deadline lynch.

In all honesty, I wasn't caught up for much of D2. danakillsu and SSBF were both blind spots, and I was more focused on other players because the two of them were getting so much attention. I was also biased against their wagons because not one person in the game (other than perhaps Drippereth) had anything positive to say about them, and they were drawing attention away from my own pet wagon (CSL). And obviously, I can't take credit for knowing this if I'm really a Lannister, but I was right that danakillsu didn't fit at all as a Raivann buddy. Raivann's interactions with dana invalidated most of Percy's case. I thought the behavioural stuff wasn't damning for a player I'd seen make VI moves in the town game we were in together. And he made a couple of comments that sounded genuine.

Lastly, this is WIFOM, but it's true. You know what's a stupid move? Killing targets that would be unlikely for anyone who didn't have inside information, when other people in the game know that you have this information. You know how I've proven that I knew this would be stupid? Because my first post on D3 said, "Hey, look at these nightkills that obviously tie to either me or Cow!" (since Percy couldn't be a Lannister based on his play). So if I were scum, what I've just done is deliberately make nightkills that incriminate me and one other player, and then immediately put myself in a soft 1 v. 1 with that player. It's far too much risk just to make Cow look guilty, particularly since people would take a hard look at me if he flipped town.

[Mina]

Cow, what I'd like to see from you is heavy-duty scumhunting instead of soft questions, superficial observations, and defence. Answer this:

1) Which two players do you think are most likely to be Greyjoys?

2) Which two players do you think are most likely to be Lannisters?

3) Whom do you think should be investigated today? (Obviously, you want SSBF lynched.)

4) Do you think I'm a Lannister, given the Kingsguard poisonings (and given that you should know you're not guilty if you're town)?

[Mina]

For the record, xvart, I wanted to follow up more on my Cow suspicions on D1, but didn't have a lot of time on. On N1, I suppressed a lot of my suspicion of Cow in the QT after I'd seen he'd been nominated, as well as in the thread on D2 and N2. There's a comment on D2 in which I admit that my suspects have been easy targets, but mention "one player" to whom I'd like to draw attention later if I have time. I was referring to Cow.

Aah, things to do:

1) Ginormous wagon analysis from Days One and Two that I keep on promising to do and putting off.

2) Paraphrase N2 of the QT.

3) Make an actual organized case against Cow.

All three will take hours of work.

[Mina]

Wow, um, that went through quickly.

Unvote

Rifka, why did you light a candle for yourself?

I thought it would take me an essay to convince people to see the light on Cow. Basically, aside from the overdefensiveness and night-kill evidence, I found his observations have been superficial, most of his posts consist of filler like "something seems off here," and soft questions, and his "if SSBF weren't sooooo unbelievably scummy for saying 'Yay, the godfather's dead,' I'd vote for you" routine every time someone said something suspicious rang as false. I also hated his refusal to answer my question about Lannisters on the Kingsguard because "it might be a trap" (Wasn't it obvious where I was heading with it? If he's town, he should be wondering about me by process of elimination?).

But fuck. I don't think Cow would still be posting after he'd been investigated if he were scum.

This game is starting to depress me.

I'll vote SSBF (he seems to have given up on scumhunting as his lynch has drawn near), but first, I'd like to do the paraphrase of the N2 Kingsguard QT tomorrow. It would be a shame if the information died with me and Cow.

I will lead this town. It looks like the cow thing is going to plan. That’ll yield him lock, thor, rich, myself and Mina as town (Yeah My read on Mina has been a rollercoaster, but right now with the Kingsguard released info I believe her to be town). With a few other decent reads our pool is greatly narrowed.

Wait...so if you think Cow will end up town, then why did you push his scan in the first place?

Why would a Jailkeeper / RB give us a potential Greyjoy? If the working theory (which I support, BTW) is that the Greyjoy N1 kill was blocked it makes ZERO sense for that person creating the block to be a Greyjoy. I’d say in either case (Doc or Blocker) we have a confirmed not-Greyjoy.

Thor explained it, but if someone claims to have roleblocked or jailkept an unlikely NK target on N1, then that makes his claimed N1 target look bad.

Also regarding your discussion that you aren’t a Lannister due to your danakillsu interactions – it’s HUGE amounts of WIFOM. Following your logic anyone who refused to wagon Raivann in favor of other candidates should be cleared of being Greyjoy because that’s just not the behaviour of someone who knew Raivann would flip scum. Neither scenario seems logically sound in my mind.

I admitted that by bad luck, I look like a dana buddy from an outside POV. (On a skim-read D1, even I winced at how often I unwittingly defended I doubt it and danakillsu.) There isn't really much I can do about it now other than explain why I wasn't sold on the dana lynch, admit that I get in trouble

a lot

for white-knighting wagons, and say that the way I went about my defence of dana is not how I would have done it had we been scumbuddies.

Anyway, I believe that scumbuddies tend to have either weak-to-no interactions with their teammates or keep them in what I call "the buddy zone" (put each other on their higher suspect tiers, but not put them to a lynch). Look at how I doubt it interacted with danakillsu, for example. It's why I'm hesitant to see xvart or Macavitar as Greyjoys even though they fit well on paper; MacavityLocke has this terrible quote early in the game in response to the Deer wagon that sounds like textbook buddy behaviour, but he's a bit too open with his defence of Raivann, and Percy and Raivann openly declare xvart town too often. I think

Benmage

's late vote for Raivann, when Raivann was nudging out CMAR by a couple of votes, is more what I'd expect of a buddy cutting ties by voting for someone who was almost certain to be lynched when the alternative was someone he'd suspected. (Of course, I think Ben's interaction with Percy is a bit too strong--not negative,

strong

--for them to be teamed up. It's hard to tell with a player like Percy.)

If you think for certain that there was a Lannister on the Kingsguard (and given that we had two Greyjoy’s I’m certainly not ruling out the possibility) you’ve basically set yourself up in a 1 v 1 with Cow. With Cow a likely scan today I'm not sure how I feel about that.

You know...now that Cow's last post is giving me the sinking feeling he'll scan town, maybe I should clarify that it's within the realm of possibility that there's no Lannister on the Kingsguard, and the nightkills were coincidence. But I'm not sure what you mean by that last part. That you see a scum motivation for pushing for a Cow scan or putting myself in a 1 v 1 with him?

[Mina]

Please do something scummy right now, Cow, to give me hope. This is making me feel like shit. If I hadn't opened my big mouth, Rifka or Macavitar might have been investigated.

Rifka, I understand the temptation to say "I'm confirmed, now leave me alone and let me coast for the rest of the game" (particularly when you're falling behind and don't want to work to look town). But instead of trying to push your own scan, you just said, "candles are pretty!" So it was hard to tell how sincere you were being.

That said, I think you have a great point about MagnaofIllusion. I'd like to take a hard look at those on that Cow scan, because people who had other suspicions didn't push their own choices.

I know that Locke and Thor did the same thing.

diddin, I'll link to a few completed town games:

In the Fables game I played with danakillsu, I got into a bit of trouble for this post. I was basically the only person who didn't like the kpaca wagon. He was town, though, and ended up replaced and escaping the lynch by a total fluke.

This game was a no-reveal game, so although the player I white-knighted was town, no one knew it until the end of the game. A townie thought it would be a good idea to prepare a fake code to claim finder (Westeros terminology for "cop") and selflessly attract a nightkill, and an even better idea to use that code at L-1 to save himself from a lynch. I was the only one who bought his story. So since everyone was positive that he had to be scum, I looked like his only potential buddy by process of elimination, leading to me being forced to claim doctor ten minutes before the deadline, getting counterclaimed by one of the killers the next day, and somehow escaping the lynch because I was so paranoid about the confirmed vigilante that no one could believe I'd be that crazy as scum. Memorable (and embarrassing) game.

Oh, and for proof that self-deprecation isn't a scumtell for me, see mentat's response to Sir Thursday's quote of this post.

This game is a bit hard to follow, because it's alted, and since then we've changed all the alts to

The Wire

characters for another game. At the time, my alt was House Grandison, but my posts are now under the name Detective Carver. In this kingmaker game, everyone--EVERYONE--in the game wanted to lynch the same killer (House Cerwyn/Lieutenant Daniels) on D1, and yet I somehow executed someone else because "Cerwyn sounded kind of genuine in that one sentence!" But I was still killed on N1 anyway, because everyone alt-guessed me and I was playing 100% to my town meta (angst and panicky indecision). (Off-topic: Percy-scum reminds me a lot of House Yarwyck/Bubbles in that game.)

[Mina]

*twitch*

*twitch* *twitch* *twitch*

*twitch*

EBWOP: That "I know that Locke and Thor did the same thing" was an unfinished thought. Basically, they also wanted the Cow scan to go through as quickly as possible. So I'd started wondering if a town player might also have a motivation for rushing the worthiness-proving, but then realized I shouldn't give players like MoI and Macavitar alibis before answering my questions. Probably should've deleted that sentence.

[Mina]

I should have never belittled LynchMePls's reads. In hindsight, his were five times more accurate than mine.

I'm still undecided on a few things: both whether it's a good idea to leave SSBF alive today and whether I should come forward with all my theories and reasoning (since exposing it will motivate an SK or rival scum into behaving certain ways). If Cow scans as town, I'll have thoughts for him in the QT tonight. For now, I'll ignore SSBF and look elsewhere until we decide what to do with him.

That said, if SSBF is a town-aligned vig, then I'm the Greyjoy godfather.

Did you leave any breadcrumbs?

(By the way, SSBF, if you're Mafia, then you missed the world's easiest fakeclaim. Dude, everyone and their dogs speculated that Arya Stark was somehow linked to Jaq'en H'ghar.)

Right now, my opinions are still wishy-washy, because there are quite a few strong, hard-to-read players left in the game.

Question to people voting or suspecting Mikujin: which team do you think he's on? Because although I dislike his early Day 1 and Day 3 play (his late Day 1-Day 2 play looked quite townish), he was early to both the dana and Raivann wagons. The Raivann attack in particular I see as unlikely to be bussing. His jump onto dana was lukewarm (so I could see Lannister!Mikujin), but still a bit of a premature bus when the SSBF wagon was so viable.

I think MagnaofIllusion did a great job at examining Unsight's and Rifka's links, and I'm reevaluating my opinion that Unsight is an unlikely Greyjoy. (On second thought, Percy might have been trying to call attention to his distancing in the QT. And the Percy-Unsight relationship does fit nicely into the "buddy zone" I mentioned before.) I think Unsight is more likely to be Lannister than Greyjoy-scum, because his interactions with Percy come off as more genuine than those with dana, and because I hate how he needed to be prodded into commenting on dana, and then felt the need to give a long explanation claiming that he'd always found dana scummy, and his reasons for waiting to vote were totally legitimate!

But after ISO-ing him, I really don't have a scum read on Unsight. Even though I disagree with a lot of what he says, he's just very cranky and abrupt and unconcerned with others' opinions. Ugh, why can't I stop listening to my gut this game, even though it keeps leading me off a cliff?

I like the case for Rifka being a Lannister, although she's done a couple of things that ring townish.

Now I need to look at Macavitar and xvart...and decide if CSL still makes sense as a Greyjoy.

Oh, and I've done a complete 180 on Benmage. Not just because of his interactions with dead scum, but because rereading his late Day Two play, his contribution is a lot more balls-to-the-wall and substantial than I remembered at the time (and I think part of why I thought he was filling the thread with noise was just because I was struggling to catch up.) I'm not sure if Benmage still wants me to answer his questions from then, in case he wants to get a better read on me.

More coming in my next post.

[Mina]

Um...okay. Those last posts by Unsight are helping to remedy that lack of a scum read.

Wow... haven't made a post since Monday. How the hell have I not been prodded?

Because you're invisible. Now that you're confirmed, we don't have to read your posts anymore. So you get to sit in the corner and look pretty for the rest of the game. It's awesome. You could claim scum and I wouldn't notice.

Hey, Axelrod! I've got a question for you. A couple, actually.

When I complained about the people suggesting that Percy step forward, you said this:

There is no evidence implying that Percy is scum.

Well, that's not exactly true either. There's certainly nothing blatant though.

I think your only interaction with Percy was to agree with his read on Hayker and danakillsu. You never mentioned anything negative about him before then.

What evidence in particular were you thinking of (that wasn't blatant, but that was enough for you to want to scan him)?

Also, in response to this:

Still waiting for SSBF to claim or do anything useful. Got a few niggles here and there on other people, but not a lot of time to do anything with them.

Please elaborate on these niggles.

Axelrod, if we decide not to lynch SSBF today, then who would you like to lynch instead?

Because most of your posts in this game are commenting on safe topics (even though you execute them all with wide-eyed sincerity). And because I've just noticed something that I hadn't before (and which would have affected my read of you). Your join date is 2005.

[Mina]

Nope, it makes perfect sense to kill the person you consider most suspicious. Here's my issue. Raivann claimed Vigilante. If you are the vigilante, I don't believe that you wouldn't have that as part of your reason for killing him. That should be reason number 1, because you would be pretty darn sure he was fakeclaiming. With you leaving out that crucial bit of info, I do not believe your claim for a second.

This.

[Mina]

Actually, what I really want to know is why, back on D1, you said you found Deer/Raivann scummier than CMAR, then voted CMAR, then said it was to get a lynch even though they were both in dead heat, then said that actually you found CMAR scummier than Raivann, then went back to saying it was because you wanted to get a lynch.

And why you didn't notice that someone had claimed a guilty on Percy.

I'm still waiting for an explanation.

Also, for the record, if we leave SSBF alive, he said that he's planning to kill you. Any thoughts on that?

[Mina]

Right now, I need to head out, so I'm keeping this quick (there's stuff I wanted to mention about Macavitar and Mikujin, too, but I'll save it for later):

Mina - how are you doing on the N2 QT paraphrase?

Thanks for reminding me.

I'll see if I can get it done tomorrow.

I don’t like it because it just because there isn’t a non-WIFOM scum motivation for you to express your theory of a Lannister on the Kingsguard and to push so hard for Cow. Your theory makes sense I think. If Cow does scan as Town that leaves you as the only “unaccounted for” Kingsguard member. The heavy WIFOM involved with whether you would push for Cow’s investigation to ‘clear yourself’ is something I would not put past a good player using to their advantage. All this said I still feel you are Town but I’m not going to outright dismiss that little bit of gnawing doubt in the back of my mind that this scenario creates.

Fair enough. I wouldn't confirm myself as non-Lannister.

If anything, voicing my theory would probably harm the town. It's basically what happens if SSBF is Mafia fakeclaiming (possible given how weakly he's justified his kill choices) and there really is a SK instead of a vig. In that case, we're better off lynching SSBF.

Either way, I'm thinking if we're super-confident that SSBF is scum, we should kill him sooner than later, because we're more likely to make an accurate lynch choice tomorrow than today from among the rest of our suspects. But it's a good idea to at least look at other lynch options today and keep the pressure up on everyone.

CSL: thank you for that. But you were actually never on Raivann's bandwagon. And my point was not only that Raivann's lynch was still viable when you voted CMAR over him, but that you then OUTRIGHT CLAIMED that you suspected CMAR more.

Hmm. That explanation could have been

worse

, but I have a paranoid theory right now based on the change in style of that post. Probably tinfoil hat, though.

That said, you not noticing the investigation on Percy is a point against you being a Greyjoy. In particular, Faraday mentioned in a PM to me last game that he'd probably use daytalking next time, in which case I'm sure Percy would have been sweating bullets in the QT before being savaged by Grey Wind.

Axelrod: you have time to write long posts explaining just why we should lynch the potential SK (which I can see a very obvious scum motivation for posting). What I'd like now is at least one case. Preferably not on CSL, because that's reaching for the low-hanging fruit. Because the only case you've made all game is on danakillsu, after several people had attacked him, and one on SSBF based purely on the NKs.

See, you may act soooo upset when a townie doesn't claim until late, and worried about players who are turned off by this game by Drippereth's playstyle, and happy when we kill scum...but that's something an experienced player in a multiple-faction game might be able to fake. When I look at the overall pattern of your actions, you fit very well into the scum mold. You're talking the talk, but not walking the walk. And your recent posts have a few sentences that--to borrow your own expression--raise my hackles.

So it would make me happy if you tried to make a little time before the deadline is up.

I don't suppose you have town and scum meta, do you?

[Mina]

Heads up: I'll be L/A over the next few days, so I'll be. Maybe I'll post

diddin, that was a HORRIBLE post.

As was this one:

There hasn't been anything I can really say, this game has become a bit dead for me. I really think we should decide on a lynch soon.

I'm also already claimed in case you forgot.

Your claim is Sandor Clegane. That definitely doesn't clear you.

I'm sooooooo tempted to vote for you right now. Except sadly, you're not the best lynch for today because of the result on you.

We actually have a week until the deadline. That's plenty of time to push whoever you want.

Do you, personally, believe that Unsight is scum, yes or no? Who are your suspects other than Unsight?

[Mina]

Sorry, guys, I've been L/A for the past few days and have only been casually checking my games on my phone. I've also had computer problems.

I don't have time to catch up with the thread right now, and I've fallen horribly behind on this game. (I see Unsight has claimed, and there's a huge kerfuffle around that.)

But now that my computer problems are finished, I can post what I'd written of the QT paraphrase. But I didn't finish it. I worked on it a bit more today up until the Cow "overdefensive" comment so you'd know what I was talking about.

This was horribly tedious. As always, Cow, correct me if I'm missing or misstating something.

Night Two in the

Hippie Commune

White Tower

1)

DrippingGoofball

spams the QT a bit with several short posts. She says hi, and congratulates everyone on the dana lynch. She says that in her opinion, dana wasn't that scummy, so she thinks he was bussed. She looks at the danakillsu wagon and says that one of the last four (Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, Unsight, Rifka Viveka) is scum, and she's sure there's more on the wagon.

She also speculates that Locke is scum, because his only reason to claim to have stabbed Kinetic was distancing. (In hindsight, Locke's choice makes sense.) She says that one of the three on the CSL wagon (Percy, Mina, SSBF) may be scum. She thinks that since dana is scum, there must be a lot of scum on the CSL stabbing wagon. (She gives Percy, Rifka and MagnaofIllusion as examples.)

2)

Cow

apologizes for his lack of posting day two. He says Day Three will be better. He is only slightly surprised by the dana flip; Cow found him scummy, but thought SSBF was worse. He says that he wants to lynch SSBF if SSBF isn't killed tonight.

3)

LynchMePls

says that accusing CSL-stabbers of being scum because of dana's flip is "baloney," because CSL was obviously the best stab choice because of his claim. All we'd lose was making him a non-voter for one day if he was town, while we'd neutralize a scum power role if he'd lied. He tells Cow that he didn't have any problem with his posting. He then asks me what I make of the dana flip.

4)

Percy

disagrees with DGB vehemently on looking at the dana wagon for scum, in very strong terms. He says the best place to look for Lannisters based on voting analysis would be in the early SSBF wagoners (hasdgfas, I Doubt it, Unsight, CSL, Rifka Viveka, MacavityLock). He then says that Drippereth is a likely Lannister.

He asks her why she thinks there's scum on the CSL wagon. He explains the logic of stabbing CSL again, then says he asked people in the thread about their stab choices because everyone should have been stabbing CSL (except for those with strong suspicions of other players).

(Gah, if this were anyone but Percy, I'd rule out CSL as a Greyjoy based on how strongly he goes on about looking for connections and CSL being the best stab target. But damn him and his crafty distancing! I still think something was off in his ranking of SSBF and CSL. Still, I'm starting to think CSL is more likely a Lannister than a Greyjoy if he's scum.)

He wants to reread the game over the night and says that he's very interested in the danakillsu case, because he came out with it in the beginning of the day, so it must have put a lot of pressure on the Lannisters even though it relied on dana's Raivann interactions.

Interestingly, he thinks early danakillsu voters have a higher chance of being Greyjoy. (

My brain is spinning in circles of WIFOM right now--does that clear or condemn the early voters?

)

He says he'll be very, very interested in hearing my reaction to dana's flip, because of how I dismissed the dana case and tried so hard to shift people from dana to CSL.

5)

DrippingGoofball

spams it up some more:

-She says it's significant that the leading wagon was dana (scum), but CSL got more stab votes (a choice that would also get a lot of stabs and look protown). Drippereth didn't get a stab vote in on time, which means CSL reached majority before everyone had voted.

-She prefers the dana-was-bussed to the late wagon theory, because there's always scum distancing early and jumping late on the wagon to buy town cred.

-DGB says re: the CSL wagon that scum rarely pile on the same wagon, and CSL was an easy wagon to get going.

-Finally, she compares the early SSBF voters (hasdgfas, I Doubt it, Unsight, CSL, Rifka Viveka, MacavityLock) to the late dana voters (Vezokpiraka, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, Unsight, Rifka Viveka). She finds it significant that Unsight and Rifka belong to both sets.

6)

Ellibereth

checks in.

7) I (

Mina

) post a wall. I say that I didn't have time to write a big response after I left the thread on Saturday (although I was checking it), but the gist of my response to LMP's post bashing my vezokpiraka vote would have been that the vig is probably dead, CSL being stabbed doesn't have anything to do with who gets lynched today, and dana hadn't exactly claimed scum. I then eat a lot of crow and scrap the self-righteous lecture about tunnel vision I'd planned to give LMP and Percy after dana flipped town. I say the reason I said before that I'm better at looking townish as either alignment than catching scum because these kinds of embarrassments happen to me all the time. To salvage my pride, I say that I was right that dana didn't make sense as a Raivann buddy. I predict that I'll come under a lot of heat tomorrow for my dana defence.

I ask people how much they'd like to hear about my suspicions. I want to go through the thread and rate every player on their likelihood of being either a Lannister or a Greyjoy. (Yeah...that reminds me....) But I'm worried that there might be scum in our kingsguard QT, and I doubt I'll be nightkilled after how I linked myself to dana, so I should save it for the game thread tomorrow.

I look for validation for my Benmage suspicions, and ask everyone if they think I'm imagining that Benmage is deliberately throwing irrelevant questions at his attackers to distract them (as I've falsely attributed ulterior motives to unusual/antitown play before). I call 90% of his spamfest after pressure headed his way fluffy crap, but say it's a pain to point out every time he's stalling or contradicting himself. I warn that he's in trouble tomorrow, because I was the wrong person to try to bully. I debate how best to make a case on him without wall-posting or spamming the thread with white noise. (If Benmage didn't like

Night One

of the QT....)

Lastly, I say that I'm pretty sure Raivann's team killed jvw--and not only because I think Raivann was the Lannisters' kill. I say that although Raivann

could

have been trying to indoctrinate a buddy into the Kingsguard, it's far more likely that we helpfully advised the Greyjoys into killing jvw instead of xvart.

In my next post, I misunderstand Percy's point that he wanted to look at the early dana voters for Greyjoy to mean that he wanted to look at the voters

for Greyjoy

. It occurred to me at the time (although not very seriously at the time) that it might be a slip. But I don't think we can draw any conclusions from this.

I ask DGB if she's saying

she

wouldn't have stabbed CSL. I say scum could have easily claimed to have stabbed CSL but targeted a potential power role. I suggest that although it might be useful to look the CSL stab mob to see if he had a super-majority before the thread re-opened, that time would be better spend analyzing the actual lynch mobs. Lastly, I find it funny that CSL's VT claim was actually

pro

-town.

8)

DGB

apparently missed the fact that the stabbing takes away a player's power role for the rest of the game. She says the hydra discussed stabbing CSL, since they didn't suspect dana...but that he's not a player who needs to be neutralized in a bad way. And taking a vote away from a VT was kind of cruel. Now she's dead, so it doesn't matter, but that raised an alarm bell at the time. Using typical DGB logic, she says in response to my comment about getting heat for the dana lynch that if she'd suspected me of being scum, it would be for the other scumteam.

9)

LMP

says in response to DGB's "Unsight and Rifka belong to BOTH SETS!" that he has a town read on Unsight, because her attack on him felt like genuine scumhunting, although he was annoyed by her refusal to answer questions. He says that Rifka is a null read. In response to my comment that I think there may be scum in the Kingsguard, he says he feels ashamed of inviting Raivann into the Kingsguard (note to LMP in his grave: I think it was a perfectly good choice at the time), and that we should just be careful not to reveal any extra information or role claim.

He agrees with me that Benmage's play is troubling and that the Greyjoys were probably behind the JVW kill. Corrects my mistake on Greyjoy. Takes my question about CSL being protown at face value, and says the odds are about 50-50 that he's town. Addressing those of us who want to lynch vezo because the vig might be gone, says he thinks we shouldn't lynch vezo until later, because vezo-scum isn't a threat. Asks Percy and Cow when they think we should lynch vezo.

10)

DGB

says that she wants vezo lynched for his flip and connections, and isn't hoping for a vig.

11)

Cow

says he doesn't know his read on vezo, but we should lynch him soon if we do it at all. He then tells Percy that Cow thought SSBF was scum since he showed up in the game and SSBF is his top suspect. And tells Percy to feel free to look at him as scum for voting for his top read, but it won't stop him from voting for SSBF early again. (Not the exact wording, because I'm trying to paraphrase.)

This is the Cow "overdefensive" comment, so I'll stop here for now since I'm short on time. (

I hated this at the time because Percy had not even singled out Cow personally, just listed six players that were more likely to be Lannisters if one did voting analysis. It felt as though Cow was protesting way too much. He also hadn't commented on anything else that had gone down in the QT.

)

To be continued.

There's still a page and a bit to go. There's some hilarious Percy-DGB interaction, and I end the night with comments that are cringeworthy to paraphrase after DGB's and Percy's respective flips.

[Mina]

Hey, this is just a promise to try to finish the rest of the QT paraphrase tonight (although it might involve a lot of coffee). I've been so distracted lately that I didn't even realize that the deadline is tomorrow.

Aah, I've just skimmed the last few pages. I am so behind on this game right now. I know whom my top choice for a lynch would be right now if we had unlimited time (I'll save it for Cow in the QT tonight if he scans town), but I'm kind of lukewarm on both the Unsight and Rifka wagons.

Um...

Vote: Rifka

Unsight's prickliness and lack of attention to his image doesn't seem scummy, and I'm in favour of shaking things up.

But please, Rifka, don't claim unless it looks like you're going to be the lynch instead of Unsight. I don't want to have two claims per day unless it's 100% necessary.

I have a very strong scum read on SSBF right now (total reversal from D2, I know). But I realized that even in my worst case scenario (there's a SK and it's not SSBF), we don't lose anything by lynching him tomorrow instead of today. Whether or not we lynch him, the real SK would still be at large. It's better to wait for the information we'd get from another night of deaths.

[Mina]

You know, I'm kinda being convinced on Rifka. Need to ISO, but I'm thinking Rifka needs to claim.

I swear, you're doing this on purpose.

But please, Rifka, don't claim unless it looks like you're going to be the lynch instead of Unsight. I don't want to have two claims per day unless it's 100% necessary.

What is wrong with people on mafiascum and their obsession with asking for a claim every time someone gets looked at sideways?

Why the hell are you asking Rifka to claim when your vote isn't

on her

?

You're probably going to be cleared at the end of the day, anyway, but...really?

We are not getting a claim from Rifka unless more people want to lynch her over Unsight. Particularly since Unsight already claimed VT.

What convinced you in particular on Rifka? Was it Axel's most recent post?

I have mixed feelings on that case (although he brought up a couple of good points--for example, Rifka's stance on the dana v. SSBF lynches, which makes her a very likely Lannister). I hate it when people reread a player and try to spin every single action they've made in the game as a sign of guilt--it comes across as insincere and overjustified. Particularly since Axelrod comes to a rather soft and wishy-washy conclusion:

So, really, nothing much positive to see here. And that's maybe the biggest concern of all, that in all his posting there really hasn't been even one post to make me jump up and say "yeah, that sounds like a Townie post!" It's kind of similar to Unsight, actually, to the point of making me wonder if he might just always play like this. But it's enough that I'd been happy with that vote as well.

This last part is middle-of-the-road goodness.

Right now, is there anyone you think

is scum

? If you could get one player lynched this second, whom would it be?

Do you actually PREFER a Rifka vote to an Unsight vote, or are they even in your mind? Why do you think that Rifka is scummier than Unsight?

[Mina]

(Yeah, I'm taking back my prediction that LynchMePls vs. Axelrod was town vs. town.)

[Mina]

*sigh*

Yet More Kvetching In the White Tower

Last week's episode of

The Kingsguard

ended on a shocking cliffhanger, as the valiant Ser Cow the Holy scandalized viewers worldwide by being...*gasp*

overdefensive

! In this sequel to the two-part saga of the loyal Knights of the Kingsguard and the secrets that lie beneath their white cloaks, a brand new face joins us--Ellibereth!

(can you tell I want to shoot myself right now?)

12)

Ellibereth

posts a slew of one-liners, clearly in with his other head, and comes across as though he hasn't been following the thread closely since Day One. He:
-asks if vezo had some contradiction in his claim
-cryptically says it's Unsight and definitely Rifka (prescient words, considering how today has gone)
-asks why people suspect Super Smash, because he knows there were issues surrounding him but can't remember what
-says that he's not worried about scum infiltrators except for Percy, because everyone else on the Kingsguard has looked obvtown for a while.

Both heads of the hydra confuse themselves as

Dripping Goofball

mistakes Cow's post about his SSBF suspicions as Elli's and thinks Elli contradicted himself on SSBF-scum.

13)

Percy

, the slimy villainous scumbag, responds to my comment that looking town is easier than catching scum by saying he has the same problem himself (we've noticed <_<), but my trying to call attention to it seemed off. He tells me to go ahead and share my suspicions in the QT if I've found something new, and says he agrees with my Benmage read. Disputes my theory that Raivann killed julienvonwolfe by saying that like he mentioned in the thread, poisoning is a Lannister kill method. Doesn't get that I misread his "Greyjoy" comment to mean the wagon

on

Greyjoy, and says he thinks there were Greyjoys on dana's wagon because it was a good case that WASN'T on a Greyjoy.

In response to LMP's question on vigging/lynching vezo, says that he's convinced that vezokpiraka is Joffrey, because of the disconnection between "next in line to the throne" and "Meera Reed." Says that although he isn't happy with wasting a lynch on him when there are other good leads, he's tempted by the idea of lynching three scum in a row, especially since vezo might have a role as well.

He goes into detail on Joffrey and Meera's roles in the books, and why it doesn't fit the flavour for Meera to be next in line to the throne. He mentions that ASOIAF has been translated into Romanian.

So yeah.

Vezokpiraka is 99.9% not a Greyjoy.

Agrees with Cow that SSBF is scummy, but says that Cow's opinion of SSBF's scumminess rose at the start of D2. But Percy adds that he hasn't concluded anything from his wagon analysis yet or reread the thread.

In response to Ellibereth's question about SSBF being scummy, uses a funny acronym that might count as quoting if I repeat it.

Lastly, gets really annoyed with Drippereth. He says he's sick of them smearing him, refuses to respond to their scumread until they give him something to defend against, and asks them to explain why they think he's scum because they're wasting their time. Also asks for a response to his case on them. (

It's kind of obvious why Drippereth was drowned.

)

14)

Dripping Goofball

agrees with Percy that vezo mixed up his real name with his fake claim. She also thinks that Benmage is acting weird even for Benmage.

She says that Elli was V/LA and so isn't caught up, and that Percy had done scummy stuff on D1 (she doesn't elaborate), but that she isn't as worried now. And besides, Percy is useful for his knowledge of the flavour. (On a funny note, DGB admits to not knowing whether ASOIAF is a book, movie, or video game.)

She dismisses Percy's issues with the hydra as a bore and a waste of time because she's town, and says she'd rather hunt scum. (All in all, my reaction to this post was "WTF?" I found her refusal to answer Percy's case really scummy...but obviously it wasn't a scumtell in retrospect.)

15)

LynchMePls

explains the case on SSBF. He says that SSBF has many connections to Raivann, as explained on the beginning of Day Two, and then tried to deflect from this with a terrible case on vezokpiraka. Then when people call him on it, SSBF lurks heavily.

Pimps the ASOIAF series to DrippingGoofball. Says that Percy has a good point on vezo, but that LMP's main problem with the wagon is that everyone who has pushed him looks scummy. Reminds Percy that D1 was a mislynch (and Raivann was NK'd).

Tells people who doubt SSBF-scum to reread the beginning of Page 37, in which he's painfully scummy (to the point that his play on that page alone should be enough for us to lynch him). He says that SSBF is clearly a Greyjoy based on how he admits he needs to explain his connections to Raivann, cheers for the Mafia godfather's death, and talks about looking for Raivann's connections.

(Not that relevant, but they're the last words of a dead townie. Also a good argument for SSBF-scum.)

16)

hasdgfas

tells Percy to read his ISO 1, in which he lists SSBF as one of his scumreads. Says his read got a boost Day Two because SSBF started the day by doing something incredibly scummy. He voted SSBF within the first ten posts of the day, before there was a big wagon on dana. Reiterates that you can't dispute that fact. Tells Percy to look for scum on the SSBF mob when the wagon on dana was huge, instead of when both wagons were the same size.

(Off-topic: I strongly disagree with this logic, and think that by the time the dana wagon was large, all the scum would have cut ties. It's better to look at when both wagons were in competition, since that's when scum had to make a choice--although I agree the first vote on SSBF wouldn't be bandwagoning. This isn't damning, but again, it added to my impression that Cow was protesting too much, particularly since I thought his behaviour would fit with that of a dana partner.)

Cow corrects Percy on his Joffrey logic by saying that when ACOK starts, Joffrey isn't next in line because he's already king, meaning vezo is more likely someone like Tommen (although it's debatable as to whether Tommen would be scum). vezok could also be Stannis Baratheon (who is officially next in line to the throne).

(

This is a good point, but after LMP's poisoning, it made me wonder if Cow was vezo's partner, particularly since his opinion on vezok had been rather non-committal. I think Cow will flip town, but it's useful to know in case he turns out to be a Lannister.

)

17)

Percy

agrees with Hascow that vezokpiraka would be Tommen or Stannis if he's faking his claim, but says he still doesn't buy his "all girls are princesses-->next in line to the throne" story. Says he's rereading D2.

18)

LynchMePls

says he isn't sure that vezo wouldn't be that dumb (yes, a double negative) based on his previous experiences with vezokpiraka.

19)

DrippingGoofball

is sold on the SSBF lynch based on LMP's case.

20) I (

Mina

) ask DGB if she realized that stabbing takes away a player's role as well as his vote. I then...um, scold DGB self-righteously to answer Percy's case, and not to dare call it a distraction based on how she's played this game. I express disbelief that she's clearing Percy based on his

flavour analysis

and not on his unlikeliness of being either a Lannister or a Greyjoy. Yeah. This is kind of embarrassing after how today's gone down.

I say that my comment about sucking at Mafia didn't have much thought put into it, and touch upon the disorganized stream-of-consciousness thought process that lead from me thinking that I should get off my ass and do partnership analysis to "downplaying" my Mafia abilities.

Finally, I say that although I haven't finished rereading D2, I'm starting to see the light on SSBF-scum. I say I'm not sure if I'll keep pushing CSL or go after Benmage or vezokpiraka, because there are too many scummy players to choose between.

Thread closed for the night.

Over.

Finito.

Nothing left to paraphrase.

Seriously. You want to know why I kept putting that off? No, it wasn't some nefarious plan to keep the top-secret incriminating information that (gasp) LYNCHMEPLS ASKED ME MY OPINION OF THE DANA FLIP from the town's inquisitive ears. It's because Day One alone took me at least six fucking hours. And because this was like slowly peeling my fingernails off, one by one.

No one had better ask me for Night Three. Tomorrow, I'll do something productive. Like try to figure out who's scum.

[Mina]

What is wrong with people on mafiascum and their obsession with asking for a claim every time someone gets looked at sideways?

Because tomorrow is deadline.

Why the hell are you asking Rifka to claim when your vote isn't

on her

?

Because my vote isn't on

anyone

, and I want to place it in a way that helps us get to a lynch. Since deadline is

tomorrow

(later today, techinically).

Then what I'd advise you to do is vote Rifka

but not ask for a claim right away

. If it's deadline and there still aren't enough people willing to lynch Rifka, then someone can hammer Unsight instead. And even better, Rifka isn't forced to claim needlessly.

Only problem is if everyone moves from Unsight to Rifka, screwing us over if Rifka claims cop at deadline and there's no alternative.

So...um, people voting for Unsight, don't vote Rifka unless you have an epiphany from the gods revealing to you her scumminess in a heavenly vision basked in celestial light and sparkles...

...don't mind me. I think I've lost my sanity from writing that paraphrasing.

What convinced you in particular on Rifka? Was it Axel's most recent post?

Nah, it was thinking back over what Rifka's done with game before looking back. I really don't like Axelrod at all this game, but scum have to scumhunt too, so it's quite possible that it's a serious case.

Fair enough.

Right now, is there anyone you think

is scum

? If you could get one player lynched this second, whom would it be?

SSBF. I should think this would be obvious.

Do you actually PREFER a Rifka vote to an Unsight vote, or are they even in your mind? Why do you think that Rifka is scummier than Unsight?

I currently don't think that Unsight is all that scummy. I looked back over him(her?) and couldn't see much that rubbed me wrong.
On the other hand, I looked back at Rifka and went "hmmmmmmmmmmm, this is kinda weird. He/she doesn't really seem to know what he/she thinks."

Cow, those last two questions were directed at Axelrod, not at you.

[Mina]

Locke, what if my vote is on Rifka, but I want Axelrod lynched over Rifka OR Unsight right now? Does that count as a position?

He also hadn't commented on anything else that had gone down in the QT.

Because responding to "what do you want done with vezo?" is nothing?

You're technically right. Replace "anything" with "the vast majority."

But it was a direct question to you. LMP had asked you pointblank (even mentioning you by name) what your thoughts on vigging vezo were, just a post or two ago. You devoted a couple of sentences to saying you didn't know your read on him and vigging him sooner was better than later. Then the rest was justifying your SSBF vote to Percy. Other than that, you didn't engage much with the Kingsguard's discussion. (In all fairness, you do have a couple more posts after that.)

If you're worried about modkill, PM the mod. Mentioning it in-thread is incredibly scummy, there's no town reason to do so. Why would you say this? Regardless of whether you thought it required modkill, if you're town, you shouldn't want a modkill.

Actually...the modkill of a VT (or scum) who was about to be lynched would help the town (assuming the mod didn't end the day immediately).

Probably me defending myself from percy's hint of looking at me. It annoyed me, because it seemed to me to be a subtle attack, which he didn't like when others did the same to him in the QT. So I thought I should explain it. As I've said before, there should be no reason for me not to defend myself as much as I can. Everyone wants to survive, regardless of alignment, so not totally defending yourself isn't playing to win.

This is all irrelevant now, but call this a "tip" (if you actually think my advice is worth anything) for next time.

Firstly, I see a difference between our attacks on Percy (in which we outright said we got scummy vibes from him) and Percy's list. DGB did all this voting analysis implicating the dana voters. Percy said that if you're going to do voting analysis, then the logical place to look for scum is in the early SSBF voters, {insert copy-paste of six players}. (Hmm, random thought...was he protecting partners on the dana wagon? But then what about looking for Greyjoys among the early dana voters?) But then he turned around and said he thought DGB (who wasn't even on that list) was a Lannister. Listing a third of the players in the game isn't really a subtle attack on you personally.

Secondly, townies shouldn't roll over and let themselves get lynched. And I agree it's often good to nip in the bud accusations that could grow into a full-blown case. But whereas scum's primary goal is to survive, townies are driven by a desire to find the scum in their midst. So someone who puts more effort into dismissing the slightest whiff of criticism against himself (even when he's under no serious suspicion) than attacking others is playing in a way that benefits scum more than town. Instead of stating, "I think that X, Y, and Z players are most likely to be dana's buddy," you went out of your way to justify your vote for SSBF and explain why it wasn't scummy.

Maybe it's a playstyle thing. But to me, it came across as though you're too concerned with how others perceive you.

[Mina]

I say that although Raivann

could

have been trying to indoctrinate a buddy into the Kingsguard, it's far more likely that we helpfully advised the Greyjoys into killing jvw instead of xvart.

Huh? Please elaborate. How/why did you think that the Greyjoy's were going to kill me?

xvart.

Remember the N1 paraphrase?

We were suggesting potential Kingsguard recruits. Raivann suggested you as an option. I went, "No, not xvart! He doesn't look all that townish. Why not one of these other protown players?" Finally, after lots of discussion, we agreed that julienvonwolfe was the best option.

The next morning, jvw turned up dead.

It seemed like too large a coincidence not to be Raivann's doing.

So I thought all our deliberations in the QT had just given Raivann a bird's eye view into whom town thought was most trustworthy (and therefore, whom should be eliminated).

Of course, this is moot now that we know jvw was a Lannister kill.

[Mina]

Benmage, you may just take the cake for most arrogant player ever...and I have played with many arrogant players.

Axelrod, you're like a cute little kitten. You give me those big bright eyes and mewl so pitifully that it makes me want to ignore that you keep on scratching up my sofa.

...That metaphor made perfect sense in my head, honest.

*sigh*

So Unsight will move to Rifka, making this 8 v. 7 for Rifka. Meaning the tiebreaking votes will be...SSBF and Mikujin.

Uh-oh.

IF EITHER OF YOU decide that Rifka should be the lynch, THEN Rifka should claim.

Otherwise, we lynch Unsight, and Rifka stays silent.

[Mina]

Fuck, I start work now. I can't promise I'll make it back in time for the deadline.

Should I switch to Unsight?

Or Thor and Locke, will you both be around for the deadline?

[Mina]

Right now, I'm both happy with and mortified by the xvart crosskill. To explain...

Thanks, Mina. Useful stuff in there. Definitely clears Vezo as a Greyjoy. Shouldn't you have an easier time of it tonight, what with LMP, DGB and Percy all dead?

It's more that I don't see much point now that Cow is confirmed town (it won't point out potential buddy tells). And instead of paraphrasing what I said I found suspicious last night, I think my time would be more productively spent, you know, actually pointing out stuff I find suspicious.

But anyway, last night in the Kingsguard QT, I wrote a huge analysis, of which I was very proud, explaining why xvart was cleared because he couldn't be either a Greyjoy or a Lannister. I even mentioned that on an ISO read, I noticed xvart's first few posts in which he nitpicked over minor points in I doubt it's and dana's posts looked like textbook scum distancing, but then the back and forth between xvart and dana just got so heated that xvart was 90% not a buddy....

My first post of the day was going to be an explanation of why xvart could be eliminated from the suspect pool, as well as a ranking of the remaining eight suspects on their likelihood of being Greyjoys or Lannisters. The wind has been taken out of my sails.

I think I've been wrong about pretty much everything this game. But hey, it hasn't stopped the scum from dropping like flies.

Something about the flavour confuses me. In the mini, Cersei was the poisoner and roleblocker; scum also couldn't use actions and kill on the same night unless they were the last member of their faction. Either Cersei isn't the poisoner, the one-action-per-night rule doesn't exist, or the Lannister Mafia threw away their roleblocks by sending their roleblocker to perform all their nightkills (in which case...WTF, Lannister Mafia).

Locke, just in case, were you roleblocked last night?

I'm getting paranoid conspiracy theories about the real SK trying to leave SSBF alive as a distraction, but it's probably safe to say that SSBF is neither a Lannister nor a Greyjoy--even though he's doing his very best to look as scummy as possible.

diddin, who are your suspects? If you had a second lynch other than SSBF, who would you choose?

[Mina]

@Thor: that was my reaction to vezo's death as well. The mind works in mysterious ways (well,

some

minds, anyway).

BTW, Thor, I forget. Do you have another vig kill left?

[Mina]

CSL, I'm so sorry to hear about your friend.

Cow,

I don't think so

. I agree with your suspect list, since I've already explained my problems with Axelrod. It's kind of worrying me how little thought people are putting into beyond "CSL/SSBF/Unsight." They're all mindlessly going for easy targets. But I'd like to take things slow. Maybe I should have learned from my epic failure at partnership analysis this game, but I still want to do one reread of the thread. I even bought a notebook just for Mafia. Maybe I'll make a case on Axelrod to show just what my problems with him have been.

On the off-chance I'm correct in some of my assumptions, I know something that doesn't really do much for us moving forward, but can at least explain a few things. Don't know if I'd be ousting anyone else in the process, however.

Mikujin, just answer one thing: do you think there's a high chance you've caught scum? (I think I can guess where you're heading with this.) If you're putting two players in a likely 1 v. 1, you should probably claim. Otherwise, wait on it a little, since you'd either out a role or give scum advance warning on what information you have.

I actually think we're more likely to be in a 4-4-(1?) set-up. The Lannister and Greyjoy teams should be symmetrical, with one godfather, one roleblocker, and one or two goons. Either way, I'd be shocked if the Greyjoys didn't have a roleblocker counterpart to xvart.

But I should check if any flipped scum players have commented on the balance.

We'll know for sure if the Lannister kills stop tonight, though.

[Mina]

Sorry, Faraday. I keep on losing track of when I last posted.

Aah, I had the beginning of a big post in response to Axelrod and MagnaofIllusion saved. I'll try to finish it by this evening, but there's another game I'm falling behind in. This summer has been a valuable learning experience in teaching me to only play one game at a time.

[Mina]

I so should've been prodded by now. I'm sorry for playing such a terrible game. There's stuff I'd wanted to bug Macavitar and MagnaofIllusion and Axelrod about for ages, but I can't focus on this game for long enough. And there's so much juicy information in this eighty-four page monstrosity that I haven't even synthesized. All I want is a few days off with no other game but this one, on a computer instead of a phone, so I can do all the necessary research and actually ISO people and make cases and ask hard-hitting questions and look for connections. I hate trying to make decisions when I'm missing pieces of the puzzle. All I can say is that I'm hoping it gets better after other games of mine end, and feel free to ask me questions or attack me if it'll help you read me. Also (oh noes, AtE alert!), lately I'm not sure what's the point of trying to be aggressive and push my opinions when I'm just going to come to the wrong conclusion anyway.

Seriously, Axelrod, I'd like to know exactly what I've done to make you so unflaggingly confident in my towniness. Essentially everyone else has gone back and forth on me throughout the game.

I've had a sneaking suspicion dawning on me recently, but one that's grown by CSL's most recent posts. That being, CSL might actually be town.

Part of it is that I no longer think CSL is a likely Greyjoy, because of how strong Percy's interactions are with him. But he also seems too casual about his own demise. He actually seems genuine about wanting to trade his own life for SSBF's.

I'm less sure about SSBF (most of his recent posts have this oily

smarminess

to them), but all the people attacking him for vigging vezok instead of CSL rub me the wrong way. He'd said he would kill one of the two, but was leaning toward CSL. At the end of D3, everyone was nagging him to kill vezo instead. What would be the SK motivation to kill vezok over CSL?

For now, I'm going to

Vote: Axelrod

. I reserve the right to flip-flop horribly on a reread, since I'm starting to wonder if he's the best strategic lynch. Need to think on a few things.

To be honest, though, I'm starting to feel worse about Unsight. His (is he male or female?) prickliness and certainty about SSBF rings false. In hindsight, I should have voted him yesterday over Rifka.

I'm extremely impressed by the effort that went into MagnaofIllusion's vote count analysis, and I'm going to use those posts as a reference for the rest of the game. That said, I don't like some of the assumptions he's making (although maybe I'm biased because it makes me look bad). That kind of analysis is too easy to manipulate.

For example, why are you assuming the Greyjoys would all be early on dana's wagon and not on SSBF's? To them, a dana and SSBF lynch would be interchangeable, now that we know SSBF wasn't a Greyjoy. I know Percy himself said he thought that early dana voters were likely to be Greyjoys (and I find it a Greyjoy tell that you stumbled upon this same theory, since you could have discussed pushing this in your QT). But I highly doubt he'd say something like that if BOTH of his partners were early dana voters. He gets no town cred for indirectly steering town's attention their way.

Maybe Axelrod fits as a Greyjoy, but at least one of Percy's partners should be a player who was late to the dana lynch or sat on SSBF all day. Like MacavityLock, or Unsight, or...well,

you

. Not crazy about the reasoning you used to clear Mac.

Also, why didn't you use the same reasoning from D1 (that people who weren't on most of the popular wagons are more likely to be scum) for your Day Two analysis?

Personally, I prefer looking at partner interactions to vote count analysis. So for example, Mikujin is almost certainly not a Greyjoy because of his interactions with Raivann, so the fact that he coincidentally fell into a category of early dana voters is irrelevant.

That said, my suspects for Lannisters were Macavitar, MagnaofIllusion, diddin, and Unsight, with CSL and Axelrod to a lesser extent. But all four Lannisters would have been on the Richard wagon on D1 if one of my first three suspects was a Lannister. I personally don't think it clears diddin, since I can see Migwelloni being reckless enough to put Richard at L-1 without caring that his buddies were all on the wagon. But that does make Unsight a much more likely Lannister. I need to reread his interactions with xvart.

[Mina]

I did not realize how much that had grown in size in the text box. 0_0

Um, mentally add a line break between paragraphs seven and eight if you want that to be readable.

[Mina]

You moron. You utter fucking moron.

And I was finally going to have some time this evening to follow up and ask Axelrod about his reaction to Mikujin's post. That might have told us everything.

CSL, did you even MENTION Axelrod before the wagon on him grew?

What the hell are you talking about, anxiety? There was a week and a half left in the day!

That's it. I don't care if Axelrod flips Greyjoy roleblocker (which he has a high chance of doing). My vote will be on CSL tomorrow, barring any huge revelations. If you are town, then you might have singlehandedly lost the game with your antics.

Seriously, you don't realize just how stupid that was.

MagnaofIllusion, I want to trust you after all of that partnership analysis post (although maybe I'll respond to a few points in my defence tomorrow). But I'd like to hear a similar analysis of MacavityLock tomorrow. My most paranoid worst-case scenario right now, if Axelrod flips town, is that Mac and MoI are the last two Greyjoys. Also, did you realize you were putting Axelrod at L-1 a week-and-a-half before the deadline?

You wanted to know why I've played a terrible game? It's not just because of the lack of activity, or because of my opinions consistently blowing up in my face. It's because I mentioned to CSL that Faraday was looking for replacements. If town loses, it'll be on my head alone.

Are you fuckin
Fuck.

There is a greater

[Mina]

EBWOP: I was typing that on my phone, and had trouble scrolling down, so I didn't realized I'd left in those last lines (which were half-started sentences that I forgot to delete).

I don't actually have Tourette's syndrome, I swear.

Also, in hindsight, my last post came out as

really

harsh. I'm sorry. Town or scum, CSL didn't deserve that.

But tell me right now why you hammered. Did you know that was the hammer vote? What did you mean by "anxiety"?

It looks a lot like you were afraid that your counterwagon might pick up steam if Axelrod wasn't hammered immediately.

[Mina]

Right now, I don't have time to do a huge post with analysis.

NO ONE QUICKLYNCH CSL YET!

Because although I let more than my fair share of steam about that hogwash hammer in the QT last night (and called CSL some nasty names)....I have the sneaking suspicion that he might be town.

(I was actually growing more suspicious of diddin, but his interactions with CSL today are looking townish.)

Mikujin deserves an A+ for his distancing from Raivann and a D- for his common sense. Note to him for next time, when you're in a two-faction game and the other team's killer is still alive, don't make posts like these:

I really want to hear from Locke

After receiving my results, I am quite confident Locke won't have anything new to report. Excepting, of course, that my interpretation of things is correct. Everything about this assumption hinges on my being correct about how actions resolve. Lots of room to be wrong on that note, I'd assume.

Right now I'm looking to hear from Locke about his results before I delve any deeper into what I know. On the off-chance I'm correct in some of my assumptions, I know something that doesn't really do much for us moving forward, but can at least explain a few things. Don't know if I'd be ousting anyone else in the process, however.

xvart flipping Lannister means we're probably down one scumteam, though, if I'm not mistaken. Very easy to be wrong about this, of course, but we've seen three Lannister flips now. And with many theories thinking we're dealing with 3-3-?, using the double-lynch effectively is going to be top priority.

Really standing behind SSBF / CSL (again) today. The idea of trusting the SK while we potential damn two other town players isn't something I want to do; CSL is still about as useful as he has been in the past, and I'd have no qualms seeing him burn.

Also, reread Mikujin's interactions with Axel on D5. Clearly, there's some I-know-you-know-I-know going on. The obvious conclusion is that Miku watched Locke and saw both xvart and probably Axelrod target him. So we know that the last Greyjoy knew Axelrod was probably the doctor (unless the scum don't have daytalk, and Mikujin wasn't as smart as my scumteam was in the minigame ). That makes it extremely likely he was on Axelrod's lynch mob. So in other words, MoI and CSL are more likely Greyjoys, while Unsight (who preferred a CSL lynch) or Macavitar would be less likely ones.

When I get home, I'll do some more analysis.

[Mina]

Um...no comment. Sorry.

That said, I think I lashed out because I was angry at myself for having let it get that far, so I took it out on you.

I'd also be in favour of a massclaim at this point, also--although I'd first like to know if Cow thinks that's wise when he posts today.

I've already full-claimed in the QT to Cow (since it couldn't hurt, him being confirmed town at all). Even more surprisingly, he claimed his role to me (I wouldn't have trusted myself that far). So if there's a massclaim, I think he and I should go last. He can confirm that I'm not changing my story.

[Mina]

Gee. That's quite the creative claim, Macavitar.

Brienne of Tarth, what do you have to say to that?

[Mina]

(Oh, and great job, Cow! I'm so glad you didn't listen to my harebrained suggestion to target diddin.)

[Mina]

Keep trying.

Vote: Macavitar

Cow, this is why you should have waited until we massclaimed to reveal.

But okay. I'll play along, just for fun.

Firstly, Melisandre was Percy's fakeclaim, so there's no Melisandre
You couldn't have been roleblocked by xvart on N3, because he blocked Locke instead. The evil watcher confirmed it. And Benmage wouldn't have blocked a confirmed townie who hadn't claimed his role over protecting a dayvig who couldn't take a night action or blocking a scummy VT like Unsight (the player

Benmage had voted for on D3

) or CSL. Anyway, Cow would've had an obvious way of knowing he was jailkept.

But let's say Benmage randomly decided to jailkeep you, even though you hadn't claimed and weren't among his top suspects.

1) What would possess you to target Mikujin? Mikujin, who had practically yelled from the rooftops that he was a watcher and was a lock to be nightkilled tonight?

2) Also, why would you target

townish

looking players (hey, I said townish-"looking") you didn't even suspect, if you wanted them to be confirmed to you?

Still, we probably shouldn't take it

too

quickly today. With one kill neutralized (Cow, I take it you saw Mac targeted Mikujin last night, right? Judging by his half-assed claim, anyway?), we have three lynches to lynch three suspects (MagnaofIllusion, CSL, Unsight)...but four if you count me.

We should try to Greyjoy-hunt a little first.

This should still be a win for the town, but it'll be tricky.

I'd also like to hear MagnaofIllusion's claim.

[Mina]

ETA: diddin is cleared because if Macavitar killed Mikujin, then he's the last Lannister. Sandor Clegane is clearly not a Greyjoy.

[Mina]

Just a reminder: Macavitar is now at L-2.

No one else should vote for him unless we're all ready to finish the day.

I'll admit I'm all giddy from the vicarious thrill of secondhandedly catching a bad guy, and tempted to screw everything and leave actual analysis for tomorrow. But at the very least, wait for a claim from MagnaofIllusion first.

[Mina]

Aww, damn it, I know I shouldn't give the scumbag false hope, but I can't resist wallowing in the WIFOM.

Hey, MacavityLock. Let me ask you something. Why didn't you claim days ago and ask for Brienne to come forward, given how tight a situation we were in? I mean, it's not like you'd be asking her to

role-claim

. All you do is remove yourself and another player from the suspect pool. Instead, you forced Cow to waste an investigation on you. Or did your PM tell you that Brienne might be a tracker?

============================================

Yeah. I know I tend to suffer confirmation bias sometimes, jump to the worst possible conclusion given a bit of incriminating evidence, and ignore my suspect's pleas (like in the mini, when my scumpartner had a tracking result on MacavityLock and I refused to believe he could be an innocent vigilante instead of a serial killer), until I end up with egg on my face when it turns out my hapless victim is innocent...

...but I'm really not willing to give Macavitar the benefit of the doubt today. Like, not at all. Even for a heartbeat.

MacavityLock was low-key and dispassionate in the mini, too (which was why I was giving him the benefit of the doubt here)...but he really isn't coming across like a poor beleaguered townie who knows he's been framed. Even his late AtEs don't ring with sincerity. (What kind of defence is "Don't lynch me, because then we'll be in a 4-1-1 tomorrow"? Actually, if we lynch

anyone else who isn't you

, we're far more likely to be in a 4-1-1!)

Namecop/Tracker, Day-Vig/Triggered-Vig/Hired Assassin, and Jailkeeper/Doctor/Bulletproof were somewhat redundant, so maaaaaaybe I can buy two mason/recruiting-type roles. But his role can't even be proven, since Cow/Brienne would be just be killed tonight. So given a choice between a suspicious-looking player who was tracked to the Lannister kill target and gave a shady role-related excuse AFTER Cow revealed, and...um,

anybody else

in the suspect pool, is there really any question?

I don't think the flavour is

that

implausible (because Barristan never reformed the Kingsguard, and Sandor didn't leave the Lannisters until later, either). But remember that scum all have fakeclaims, and could even get a fake role PM written by Faraday in the mini. Questioning the flavour is just a matter of how creative we think MacLock and Faraday are.

That said, I find it hilarious that the only live target he risked choosing happened to be Brienne. Seriously, what were the odds of that? It's like he was falling through a mine shaft and desperately reached for a ledge, only that ledge turned out to be a lever that opened a trap door at the bottom of the pit leading to an even deeper mine shaft.

What? That metaphor made perfect sense in my head.

I'd still be interested in hearing your MoI case, though. You could share a piece of our moral victory if MagnaofIllusion turns out to be the last Greyjoy.

Macavitar, whom do you think is the last Lannister?

==========================================
Also, I'm kind of torn on CSL. I think he'd have a fantastic reason as a Greyjoy for quickhammering the doctor before a claim--after all, given all the suspicion he was under, why not take one for the team? But oddly, I believe that CSL might be town. He's doing a good job of acting the contrite townie who knows he blundered. I almost want to lynch Unsight or MoI before him.

That said, I can't rule out CSL as a Greyjoy anymore, because I don't trust that goddamn team and their distancing.

[Mina]

Cow, if you were Mafia, you'd personally killed Mikujin last night, there had already been a flipped namecop, and then someone called you confirmed scum, voted you immediately out of the gates, and asked you to full claim, what information do you think your accuser would've had on you? This isn't only a rhetorical question. How do you think you'd have reacted? I'd be interested in knowing.

Personally, I think I'd have been able to piece together that someone had seen me target Mikujin. Also, his claim only makes sense if you or he was roleblocked or jailkept N3, which I find extremely unlikely. (I have a suspicion that Mikujin the watcher was a substitute for xvart the roleblocker. And pity we don't know what Benmage was up to then, but I'd have expected Benmage to jail Unsight.)

I'll admit he did think well on his feet (although he could've planned that fakeclaim ages ago). I suppose it's

possible

that he's town. But he's by far the best candidate for Lannister scum, and I won't vote for someone other than Macavitar today.

And the N1 and N2 Lannister kills make so much sense for MacavityLock. jvw and LMP were both suspicious of him.

Cow, there's nothing whatsoever in your PM to suggest that there's a mason out there looking for you, is there?

There was no indication that Brienne was otherwise vanilla.

You're missing my point.

By asking Brienne to name-claim, you're not revealing her role. All you do is help yourself find her.

Why didn't you ask Brienne to come forward earlier? You would have made yourself AND her confirmed town. Instead...um, you decided to take a shot in the dark at a soft-claimed watcher who would probably die that night, just because he looked innocent to you and therefore MIGHT CONCEIVABLY be Brienne.

Also, I don't see the relationship between the game you linked to and this one. Sucks to be lynched by PoE, but I think you looked a lot more innocent there, and there's more damning evidence against you in this game.

That said, your point on MoI is a great catch. I have to go to bed now, but I've noticed a few MoI Greyjoy tells (other than the similarity of his mob analysis with Percy's) that suggest he might have extra information or be working in tandem with Mikujin. I'll elaborate on them tomorrow. I should still give Unsight and CSL cursory look, also.

[Mina]

Thank you so much for claiming to be the last Greyjoy, MagnaofIllusion. You're saving us a lot of trouble. I know you're screwed by process of elimination if we lynch MacavityLock today.

It's pretty obvious why the Lannisters killed Mikujin over Locke, isn't it? Because Mikujin said, "You know what, I don't think Locke will have much to report today. Because I may just have a bit of extra information that I don't feel like sharing, but that I want to hint at even though it guarantees that my information is useless, just so you all know I'm a power role and are more likely to confirm me in endgame. Because I've been keeping

an eye

on a few people, if you know what I mean. "

If Mikujin is a Watcher, then killing Locke guarantees that you lose the game tomorrow. Mikujin had obviously watched Locke on N3, and would watch him again on N4.

And killing a confirmed player would've been an even worse move. Mikujin won't be any less dead on N5. That would give Locke not one, but

two

extra investigations. The watcher had to die, especially since the Lannister roleblocker was dead.

I mean, I did the math in our Kingsguard QT. Had Mikujin and Locke both died and been innocent, we'd have only two mislynches left, AND we'd be in Prisoner's Dilemma if we lynched a Greyjoy instead of a Lannister on D6. Our situation was grim enough for the Lannister not to be too worried about PoE.

In fact, Mikujin dying pretty much clears CSL and Richard (who wouldn't have picked up on the hint) of being the last Lannister. The only doubt I have about you being a Greyjoy is that you're the brightest bulb left in the suspect pool. And if you

let

Mikujin softclaim in a multi-faction game...yeah. Not a smart move at all.

The last Lannister is likely either diddin (who has already been scanned) or

someone generally considered clear but not confirmed directly (Richard or Mina)

.

So is that your plan if ML is lynched today, Magna? Lynch CSL and Unsight, then leave me and Richard until LYLO and try to get one of us to lynch the other. You may just have a chance.

That said...

Unvote

I still want MacLock lynched today, but I don't want a hammer just yet.

Magna, I don't particularly care if you're Hodor or Randall Tarly or Old Nan. You still haven't claimed your actual

role

.

At the very least, claim whether you have the ability to take any night actions. Because Cow still hasn't claimed all his results, you know.

[Mina]

EBWOP: Oops.

My large frame (thought to be created by Giant blood in my ancestors) is imposing, but

my simple minded nature makes me but Vanilla

.

Um...never mind that last part.

But that brings me to something else.

MoI, now is your last chance to change your story. Is there any reason--ANY reason at all--why you'd lie as town about your role?

[Mina]

Another EBWOP:

Mikujin won't be any less dead on N5.

Change that to "Mikujin won't be any less alive, of course."

One last point. I've been thinking on something I've said to Cow:

Cow, if you were Mafia, you'd personally killed Mikujin last night, there had already been a flipped namecop, and then someone called you confirmed scum, voted you immediately out of the gates, and asked you to full claim, what information do you think your accuser would've had on you? This isn't only a rhetorical question. How do you think you'd have reacted? I'd be interested in knowing.

And I just realized that was the wrong question.

This is for Thor, CSL, Unsight, diddin, MagnaofIllusion, and Richard.

When you saw Cow's first "Hey, guys! Macavitar is scum. Fullclaim, please!" what did you think Cow's role was? What information did you think Cow had?

I think I'd have figured it out--and MacavityLock is smart enough to have caught on to the safest thing to claim before he posted an hour later--but I'm biased because I already knew Cow's role.

The answer to this question will affect how we read MacavityLock...actually, no it won't. It will just affect how much I stress out until we see his flip.

[Mina]

I need to stop spamming the thread.

At this point in the game a Mass Claim is pretty much assured to confirm that Brienne existed. Any number of other claims (such as Tracker or any other weak information role) would have been easier to concoct.

I think it's obvious that Cow had a weak information role. It wouldn't have been smart to have risked counterclaiming him (particularly with a Namecop and Evil Watcher also having flipped). ML was stuck claiming something really esoteric that wouldn't be counter-claimed.

But the first part is the only

sort

of decent point in your defence of MacLock (it's still not decent enough for me to think that you believe in what you're arguing).

That said, I can still see that claim coming from scum. "Hmm, Catelyn. What sounds like a Catelyn-ish role? Um. I know! How about a mason-finder? I'm desperately searching to find my lost...oh, shit, Sansa is dead and Arya was a fakeclaim. How about Brienne, even though I never once try to seek her out in ACoK (I just visit Renly's camp, where she happens to be, and then we leave together)? I'm sure there's a Brienne in ACoK Mafia. And I'll say that I can't tell if I've been roleblocked, so this covers my ass if I acccidentally target Brienne."

Also, it's unprovable, and he can use that as a desperate attempt to stay alive. "Hey, let me live one more day! I can confirm myself to Brienne!" *kills Brienne that night* "Gosh darn it!"

And of course, this leads into the question I asked above. Could you have guessed Cow was a tracker?

[Mina]

This is a wall, so I'm posting it in two pieces.

Mac, why didn't you leave any breadcrumbs for being a mason-finder? Even in the AGoT mini, you'd left vigilante-crumbs (albeit kind of iffy ones, TBH). I don't think implying you thought Melisandre was evil counts.

Please see the AGoT game for the dangers of name-claiming. Seriously, if at some point I had said "Brienne, if you name-claim, I can town-confirm you," would anyone have not thought that that was a scummy rolefish? And wouldn't they have pretty much been right about that?

That example is completely irrelevant. Name-claiming wasn't a disaster because it led to power roles being outed or extra information revealed (unless you count people's

reactions

to the plan). It was a disaster because

all the scum had fakeclaims, and Kinetic had only proposed the idea to distract the town from scumhunting.

Asking

one player

to claim his name in order to eliminate people from the suspect pool is not the same thing as organizing a widescale campaign that stalls the game.

In fact, if there was anything to be learned from the mini, it's that names are only tangentially related to role abilities here. So Brienne could be VT, or a tracker, or a bodyguard, or a vigilante. Asking her to claim her name is not role-fishing.

Also, your logic for

not wanting to confirm a player

--particularly after there's already a revealed cop and a semi-revealed watcher to protect--is ridiculous. The purpose of masons is to eliminate themselves from the suspect pool. That's like being a cop and not revealing your innocent investigations because you

might

have investigated a doctor and you don't want to make him a likelier NK.

========================================

Your reference didn't mean anything to me at first, so I decided to go back and look. And now, I'm super pissed. That all happened while I was down at the beach for a day during the flurry of posts leading up to and after Richard's claim. Including:

Either of the two of them would make sense. And Brienne's a pretty important part of the books, I'd assume she's in the game.

And I missed it. Fuck. Thanks for making me even more frustrated with this game, hascow...

MacavityLock, since you targeted Cow

anyway

, why are you frustrated for having missed the breadcrumb? If anything, you should be frustrated for having been blocked. It makes me wonder if you're upset at yourself for having botched your claim.

==================================
I think diddin gave the best reasons for why Mac is the lynch for today. It really comes down to what the odds are for Benmage to have jailkept MacavityLock or Cow on N3 AND MacavityLock to have mason-hunted Mikujin on N4.

That said...fuck. Macavitar is starting to look

just

genuine enough to give me severe bouts of paranoia. I reread him last night and thought he was scummy (he buddied up to me and Percy, made lots of easy points, didn't seem to have that much conviction), but now I'm seeing statements from earlier that have this kind of laid-back honest vibe to them--although most of those are interacting with town and Greyjoy-players, so they might've been genuine scumhunting.

And true that claiming something that relied on Brienne being in the game was risky, particularly since the other scumteam might have had it as a fake claim. (I still maintain that Scumcavitar was stuck claiming something wacky like mason-finder or fruit vendor or two-shot flavour cop, though.)

So if you're evil, Mac, congratulations on eroding my cockiness and turning me into a jittery ball of nerves. Cow, I know my first instinct would be that any innocent explanation for Macavitar targeting Mikujin was hogwash, and I wasn't very clear, but I said that I wanted us to claim last (regardless of your investigation result last night) for a reason. Because otherwise, messes like

these

happen.

Now I'm coming up with paranoid conspiracy theories involving diddin or Unsight being the last Lannister and Thor being an evil Greyjoy-aligned dayvig.

[Mina]

Gah, I accidentally scrolled away from the second half of the huge post I'd been working on.

Unsight, it should've been obvious why I wanted to claim last (or second-to-last). I'd already claimed to Cow in the QT. So if I'd claimed NK Immune Miller Vig, Cow would've come forward had someone counter-claimed me today. Meanwhile, scum have to be more cautious with their claim if I go after them.

Mina should NOT claim. That way scum will have to deal with not knowing a potential PR.

diddin, how do you know I'm not scum?

My

name

is Bran Stark. I dunno, do people agree with diddin that I shouldn't roleclaim? I mean, obviously, it's better for the town if one innocent-aligned player's role remains a mystery. But if anyone is worried that I'll pull a fakeclaim out of my ass later and coast to victory because Cow isn't there to debunk it, I'll claim something today.

===========================================

MagnaOfIllusion - Since Macavitar is all but guaranteed to be the last Lannister and I don't see MagnaOfIllusion being the last Greyjoy considering he put Mikujin in the pile as his only other Greyjoy suspect besides Axelrod, I'm going to pull back on my "MagnaOfIllusion is scum die die die" stuff.

After the hardcore distancing all the Greyjoys have done this game, I dunno if I'd go that far. After all, MoI followed up on putting Mikujin in his Greyjoy pool of interest by listing him at "Minimal" suspicion of being a Greyjoy after his reread.

Mina's reaction to MoI's defense of Mac is interesting - there's something odd going on amongst them. MoI's defense feels honest enough to me and I think he made a good point or two - Mina's aggressive attack against him is odd because it's not like there are scum pairs left out there, we're really looking at two solo scum, so why get so itchy about someone defending someone else?

Obviously, I don't think they're scumbuddies. But MoI is behaving exactly how I'd expected the last Greyjoy to act. If we mislynch today, tomorrow is a 4-1-1. If we lynch correctly, tomorrow is a 7-1, and the last Greyjoy is screwed by process of elimination. Therefore, he needs the Lannister alive. His confidence in Macavitar's innocence seems disproportionate to the relatively weak reasons he gave in his defence, and I don't believe it's sincere.

Mind you, I'm wavering on this hypothesis. Firstly, other players have expressed doubts on Mac. Secondly, a scum player might not want to stick his neck out if he'll need to fight an uphill battle in endgame. And the last Greyjoy might not know if MacLock is a Lannister or a mason-hunter.

Unsight's reactions are actually sitting kind of badly, as well. "He happened to be visiting the nightkill target" is a plausible excuse for why a townie would be there. His reasoning has not gelled with mine all game.

Also, please stop giving me paranoid evil-dayvig conspiracy theories.

==================================

I'm not sure why people dislike that I'm putting pressure on MagnaofIllusion.

From my POV, the only Greyjoy candidates if ML is a Lannister are Magna, CSL, and Unsight. I've mentioned I noticed a couple of Greyjoy tells from MoI (I'll point them out tomorrow, since I'm exhausted now). And maybe it's just xvart's and Percy's flips and the catch on MacLock, but I'm starting to sour on reasonable, intelligent players who don't ooze townishness from every pore.

And also, I believe there's something dodgy about his role claim. I want him to confirm that he's not lying about his role, and would have no reason to lie as town.

Anyway, haven't you all noticed by now that I throw around melodramatic statements like "Thank you for claiming scum, Locke Lamora" and "I'm 80% sure that Cow is a Lannister"

that always blow up in my face

like candy?

=================================================

@FLUFF AWARE PLAYERS - I'd like to see a bit more discussion about the fluff relevance of this Brienne claim thing. Is it "safe" to assume Brienne was in the game? (e.g. is it like claiming a Princess Leia in a Star Ways theme?)

In all fairness, it's more like claiming an R2D2...or even a Wedge Antilles.

Brienne is a fairly memorable secondary character who is first introduced in

A Clash of Kings

, and has a POV later in the series. Catelyn is sent as Robb's messenger to Renly's camp (Renly is a rival to Stannis Baratheon and Joffrey Lannister for the Iron Throne). While there, she meets Brienne (one of Renly's kingsguards). Brienne and Catelyn are the sole witnesses to Renly's murder at the hands of an evil spirit sent by Melisandre. Since Renly's retinue thinks the two women were responsible for the assassination, Brienne flees with Catelyn back to her castle, and becomes her knight until the end of the book. So mason-hunting is a bit of a stretch, as Catelyn never seeks out Brienne. Finding a friendly face in unfamiliar territory

might

work...although Catelyn didn't know Brienne before they ran into each other. Brienne is sent on a journey at the beginning of the sequel...but again, Catelyn never seeks her out.

If I were listing twenty-six characters from

A Clash of Kings

who weren't Lannister- or Greyjoy-aligned, then Brienne would almost certainly make my list, but she's also one of my favourites, so I may be biased.

[Mina]

There's lots that makes me itch about MagnaofIllusion's most recent post, but first I'll point out this whammy.

I’ve given you the truth. If you don’t believe it that’s fine. I expect the uncleared Innocents are going to be run through via lynch or via Daykill (if Thor has any remaining) at endgame once there is only 1 scum-team left.

Thank you, MagnaofIllusion.

Day One.

I've been meaning to call you on this since

Day One

.

Here you are. ISOs 13 and 14. MagnaofIllusion's reactions to CMAR's two-shot BP claim.

I have every reason to believe that is a completely bullshit claim CMAR.

Is that all your PM says about your Bulletproof ability?

Answer carefully.

And then there's whatever magna has.

I wanted to see if he would offer up the following bit of information –

And that I WILL be informed if an attempt on my life is made.

Without it I would be 100% he was making crap up. As it stands I'm not really convinced based on the timing and other issues. And his lovely "I'm so sorry" post.

Cow can confirm that I've been concocting elaborate theories involving Magna being a SK or being a BP Greyjoy (and being the role on the Greyjoys that replaced the roleblocker on the Lannisters, since I'd thought Mikujin was town).

It looks like you were planning to set up a roleclaim (or thought that CMAR was a BP SK or BP member of the other scumteam), but ended up abandoning it after CMAR flipped town.

I'm now expecting MacLock (or someone else) to flip Lannister *insert-minor-weak-protective-role.*

By the way, no one make poor Cow write

yet another

paraphrase...but Magna, ask him if he thinks there's even the slightest chance that I'm scum. As wrong as my suspicions were, I think I'm really, really obviously town in the Kingsguard QT. Far more so than I am in the game thread.

[Mina]

(EBWOPreview: I'll respond to Thor in a bit.)

Magna, any response to Mac's calling you on going from "No one put anyone at more than four votes!" to "Let me put Axelrod to L-1"? I mean, considering you think he's town and all, he probably deserves an answer.

Also, didn't you say on D4 that you thought diddin

wasn't

a Lannister (for the same reason you'd thought MacavityLock wasn't one--you didn't believe all four of them were on the Richard mob)?

So is that your plan if ML is lynched today, Magna? Lynch CSL and Unsight, then leave me and Richard until LYLO and try to get one of us to lynch the other. You may just have a chance.

My plan? Well my plan is to lynch the remaining scum. Glad you decided to post what amounts to far-fetched nonsense in an a further back-handed attempt to smear me.

When you have all these ‘tells’ and are read to post them so I can actually make an argument against facts instead of innuendo I’m ready.

Yes, I was being a teensy bit hyperbolic, and I know that my gut sucks (after all, I'd thought Cow's reaction on D3 looked scummy too)...but the tone for this is all wrong. All, all wrong. Come on. "Smearing you"?

Now that I've gone from "Game over, scum caught" to "oh shit, did MacavityLock just decide to play his role in the worst possible way?", I'm planning to do a bit of partnership analysis later. Most of your Day One posts were eaten. I see you'd unvoted Mikujin on D1, but I can't even find why you'd voted him in the first place. I'll need to check the archives and see your early interactions with Percy, Miku, and.

But tells aren't damning. Tells are little things that niggle at me, that suggest you aren't seeing the game from the POV of an uninformed minority, or conclusions that shouldn't be obvious to someone without extra information (like Percy knowing that the julienvonwolfe kill wasn't his own).

I already mentioned that you and Percy came to the same conclusion about Greyjoys being early on the dana wagon. Now that Mikujin has flipped, it turns out it wasn't an evil scheme to lead us away from the real Greyjoys, but it still smacks of too much of a coincidence...particularly you never gave a good reason for why you thought the best place to look was on the early dana wagon and not on the early SSBF wagon when both should be equivalent to a Greyjoy.

Another one is both you AND Mikujin try to push the theory that we're not in a 4-4-1 on D4.

And finally:

With both xvart and benmage flipping blocking roles (Roleblocker and JK) you think that the Greyjoys have a third blocking style role? I’m not saying it is out of the question but that seems to be a little heavily weighted IMO.

It doesn't seem like an obvious conclusion at all. I know I'd assumed the teams were symmetrical after two godfather and two goon flips. What's wrong with multiple blocking roles when one of them is town-aligned? After Mikujin's Watcher flip, I think that the scum teams are asymmetrical. So it looks like you knew the Greyjoys didn't have a roleblocker.

and this:

I think you are overthinking the flavor element of the flips. Unlike a Mini I don’t think that scum have individual kill flavors. I find it unlikely that a single Lannister or Greyjoy has made every faction kill to this point in the game.

This is starting to look more likely after the fourth poisoning and third drowning in a row.

But anyway, now you've thoughtfully given me another tell.

If Mikujin is a Watcher, then killing Locke guarantees that you lose the game tomorrow. Mikujin had obviously watched Locke on N3, and would watch him again on N4.

So you are saying that Miku would be watching Locke to make sure that he saw his own partner kill Locke on the off chance of a doubled up kill would net the other scum?

Here you are. You're thinking like a Greyjoy.

See the game from the perspective of either a townie or a Lannister-aligned player, who has no idea that Mikujin is a Greyjoy.

I have no clue who Mikujin really watched last night. That's completely irrelevant to the point I was making. But do you deny that he

hadn't

watched Locke on N3, given his behaviour? Do you deny that the obvious target for a watcher, after a doctor had just died, would be the cop again on N4?

Now, imagine that you're a killer.

Who do you think the town-aligned Watcher who'd watched Locke last night is going to watch

this night

?

And killing a confirmed player would've been an even worse move. Mikujin won't be any less dead on N5. That would give Locke not one, but two extra investigations. The watcher had to die, especially since the Lannister roleblocker was dead.

If the Lannisters were afraid of Locke they would have killed him last Night. A name cop is a death sentence to scum with both Godfathers dead. You are stating the a weak information role (Watcher) was more deadly to the last Lannister than a strong information role (Name Cop). I disagree wholeheartedly.

The lack of attack on Locke by the Lannisters clearly indicates the last Lannister didn’t have any fear of being Name Copped.

A Watcher is a ridiculously overpowered role in the hands of town. In fact, there are MD topics protesting that the role should be banned because it doesn't involve any scumhunting. (You just park yourself on a claimed cop or obvtownie and automatically catch scum.)

But you're missing my point.

I'm sure the last Lannister was really annoyed to have left Locke alive. He was probably crossing his fingers that the Greyjoys had a roleblocker or would do his dirty work for him.

But letting Locke live (assuming that he wouldn't investigate Thor, Richard, Cow, diddin, or even Mikujin) gives him a one in five chance of catching you, a two in five chance of catching a Greyjoy (assuming you don't think

Mikujin

is a Greyjoy), and a two in five chance of clearing a suspect.

BUT IF THE WATCHER SEES THAT YOU'RE THE ONLY PERSON WHO TARGETS LOCKE ON THE NIGHT LOCKE DIES, YOU LOSE! GAME OVER! NO HOPE!

Yes, leaving the cop alive would suck. But if you're the last member of your faction and you kill Locke, who is being watched,

you guarantee that you lose the game

.

Yes, I know this is just proving that I'd have killed Mikujin had I been a Lannister--and I

would

have. But I think any reasonable person who'd caught Mikujin would have behaved the same way.

diddin, MacavityLock, CSL, Richard, MoI, Thor, and Unsight.

Answer this honestly. Did you figure out that Mikujin was a watcher (and not some other "weak" information role) on D3? Maybe I'm biased, because I knew about the tracker, so he had to be the watcher by process of elimination. But come on. "I've been keeping an eye on a few people"?

[Mina]

Having no air-conditioning is impeding my ability to concentrate on writing wall posts. I'll have more content later this evening, but right now I need to head outside before I boil alive.

But just one thing: Richard, don't hammer Mac yet!

Right now, I'm still leaning toward him being the last Lannister. But I still have questions for him, Unsight, diddin, and Magna (and the latter won't be around until Monday, now). And I haven't even reread Mikujin yet.

We're getting to endgame. There's no reason not to be patient. We are going to do this right.

[Mina]

Richard, spoken like someone who takes air-conditioning for granted. I don't have AC at home. My window is open and my fan on, but it's not helping much. But thanks for the sympathy, guys.

Aah, I hate it when someone mentions something, and I keep meaning to respond, but then I put it off, and then more stuff still happens, and then still more stuff happens...until by the time I'm ready to catch up, I've missed half the game. I think I'll just spam the thread with scattershot thoughts over the weekend.

For example, something I should have called CSL on before:

@ Mina: That statement meant, to me anyways, that he was scum trying to be town, and got killed for it. If this does not make sense, I'll try to re-word it.

What? Are you saying you

knew

Mikujin was scum?

Maybe you misunderstood my question. When Mikujin pulled his whole "I don't think Locke will have anything to reveal, because ha ha ha, I just might have been keeping an

eye

on him" shtick, did you know he was a power role? Did you think he was a watcher?

Another thing. What made you go from this:

I want to lynch Unsight today.

Vote: Unsight

Once I flip town, you'll have bigger fish to fry. Like Unsight, who also NEEDS TO DIE!

to this:

More votes on Axelrod and SSBF, plox.

UNVOTE: SSBF
VOTE: Axelrod

Anxiety killed the Day.

What made you decide that Axelrod was scummier than Unsight? You never once mentioned Axelrod beforehand. What made you decide to vote him over Unsight? (This goes for even if you didn't know you were hammering him.)

==============
Hey, Unsight. You never answered this question:

diddin, MacavityLock, CSL, Richard, MoI, Thor, and Unsight.

Answer this honestly. Did you figure out that Mikujin was a watcher (and not some other "weak" information role) on D3? Maybe I'm biased, because I knew about the tracker, so he had to be the watcher by process of elimination. But come on. "I've been keeping an eye on a few people"?

I think Unsight's points on me are ridiculous, namely because:

-You do realize I only unvoted Raivann after he'd been pushed to L-1 and claimed vig? Before that, I was the first on his mob, and pushed his lynch over CMAR's. I only voted Budja because, now that Raivann was off the table, I preferred his lynch to CMAR's.

-You're the one clearing MoI merely because he put Mikujin in his Greyjoy suspect pool. I cleared Mikujin because he was the second vote on Raivann, and fervently pushed Raivann's lynch. I think there were very good reasons to think Mikujin wasn't a Greyjoy.

-You realize that I was the

second vote on Macavitar

? And that I attacked MoI for trying to get someone other than Mac lynched? Just because I'm attacking MoI, doesn't mean I'm willing to vote him. (TBH, though, I've been tempted. Still think it's better to have Mac's alignment settled once and for all.)

-Magna had already expressed a strong willingness to lynch you. He'd have probably pushed you as a Greyjoy suspect today had Mikujin not died. But furthermore, even if you think he wouldn't have distanced as scum, here's his final read on Mikujin:

Suspicion of Greyjoy (STRONG / MEDIUM / MINIMAL) - Minimal

That said...I think Unsight is unlikely to be Greyjoy, based on his reasoning that a Greyjoy wouldn't want to lynch Macavitar. Sure, it

could

be WIFOM (particularly since I'd come up with it first), but I don't get that vibe. Why wouldn't he keep pushing MagnaofIllusion, particularly since there's more support for a mob his way.

So Magna, what do you think about Unsight's #2218? Do you agree with me that it's more likely to come from town or a Lannister than a Greyjoy? Also, what do you think about my point that Unsight's pushing CSL over Axelrod makes him a less likely Greyjoy?

Still not sure if he can be a Lannister--on the one hand, I'm leaning townish on him atm (my Unsight read keeps oscillating), but on the other, his D2 interactions with dana work nicely as distancing.

What I find annoying is that xvart said that he found Unsight scummier than Rifka, expressed a willingness to vote for the former...but then, instead of voting Unsight before leaving for his V/LA, he

proxied his vote to Locke

(who didn't even suspect Unsight). I dunno. From a weaker player, this would have been damning. But judging by xvart's interaction with dana, I think he'd have had the guts to vote Unsight when his lynch. But it doesn't escape me that this would be an obvious way for him to protect Unsight without getting his hands dirty (because Locke would be controlling his vote). (It's the flip of Percy trying to keep his vote on CMAR AND Raivann, to distance and protect his buddy at the same time.) And the Lannisters were in a tighter position than on D2, so maybe xvart might've been more reluctant to distance.

I hadn't minded Faraday letting xvart proxy his vote, but now I've changed my mind. It's a cop-out, and makes it harder for us to catch tells and analyze wagons. Unless (mod WIFOM)...Faraday wouldn't have let xvart do that had his buddy been wagoned? *is hopeful*

[Mina]

LOOK OUT, INCOMING WALL!

What if the scum knew something about Brienne that they could use? What if the scum knew something about the person searching for Brienne? I maintain that not name-fishing was the right play. If you disagree, fine.

I given you as much specifics as I can. I thought people could find it to be a scummy question, and I thought maybe the scum could use the info to their advantage. How the heck do I know what powers/info the scum have?

Ugh.

The second quote in particular...ugh.

That is not a townie thought process. You were worried it would be perceived as role-fishing? Your PM said

nothing

about whether Brienne was a power role, but you'd thought it was likely the scum would know about her? Come on, you'd played the mini. What did you expect? "Here's your flavour text, here are your scumbuddies, here are your abilities...oh, and by the way, there's a player called Brienne out there, who's a tracker. So nightkill her if she claims her name."

And you still haven't explained why the AGoT nameclaim (which was a distraction, but led to no PRs outed) gave you that idea.

=====================

Oh, and Mina's attitude towards me is inching ever closer to the way she treated me last game ("ML, you played your role the worst ever" blah blah blah). And in that game, you know, she was scum and I was town. Still, she's definitely not the lynch today.

That's a bad example. In the mini, I genuinely thought you were the SK, because my buddy had had a tracking result on you. But that brings me to my next point:

I've been mulling over Mac's role claim for the last few days.

I think the fact that he claimed a link to Brienne isn't

that

big a towntell, both because Brienne was extremely likely to appear in the game and because his claim was an act of desperation. If he hadn't made up an inventive fakeclaim, he'd be screwed. But he responded very quickly to Cow's hint, AND paraphrased his role PM on the spot. Faraday couldn't have written his fake claim so quickly.

So clearly, if it's a fakeclaim, it's one that was prepared long in advance.

But what makes me suspect Mac is that the way he has played his role makes little sense for a town mason-hunter. And his justifications for his play makes it sound like he considered claiming but decided against it for bad reasons.

And that's my problem. I'm trying to untangle scummy play from illogical or suboptimal play. And it's hard, because different people should be held to different standards. For example, I'd crucify Mac or MoI had one of them quickhammered a doctor, or tried to confirm themselves by this logic:

I wish people would stop making analyses that rely on me being scum. I've already done everything short of word for word quoting my role PM and it's not a scum one.

And don't say that I'm overestimating you, because you're the one nominated for a Most Cunning Manipulator scummy.

Because if you are a town mason-hunter, then your strategy

fucking sucked

. This isn't like my irrational tunnel-vision in the mini, where I nitpicked over your kill targets. Targeting a soft-claimed Watcher (both because of the nightkill threat and because ignoring Cow's claim, the default assumption should be that your target is vanilla) is iffy--but hey, we all make mistakes. But not claiming because you inexplicably thought

scum would be told about a mason

? Being more concerned with keeping yourself and a random player alive and not looking like you were role-fishing than with trying to remove two players from the suspect pool, even after a cop and watcher claim?

So right now, I'm trying to decide how much common sense you have.

Had it not been for the tracking result on Mac, I'd think the last Lannister was diddin. Because dear God...90% of every post his slot has made oozes scumminess. He doesn't attack anyone unless at least three or four people have expressed a willingness to lynch that person. He claims to have a scum read on dana, but never once attacks him. He pushes Unsight as the lynch, but is then easily swayed onto Rifka. He active lurks. He's slow to answer questions, and rarely goes deep into his thought process. In any situation with potential for actual scumhunting, he seems to come up with the question with the most obvious role-fishing scum motivation behind it. ("Hey, Locke, who's close-to-confirmed town. Who did you investigate last night? Hey, Mina. What happened in the QT last night? Because I want you--the player of murky alignment--to tell us if the

confirmed town

player did anything suspicious.")

Macavitar hasn't done anything I can really pin on him, other than making some easy points and buddying to trusted players. If anything, he looks slightly more townish than he did in the mini. Unfortunately, MacavityLock always plays with the emotion of a dishrag, so he's hard to read. He did make great points on Mikujin and MoI. And when I reread his most recent posts, he's starting to seem open and genuinely frustrated. He's hovering in the "townish enough make me freak out over lynching him, but not townish enough to convince me that he's been framed" category.

I'd still like to look at diddin today. His reactions aren't sitting right with me. The initial "Yaaaaay, scum caught!" looked genuine, but he's not second-guessing himself. I don't see any endgame paranoia. diddin, who do you think is the last Lannister if it's not Mac? Who do you think is the last Greyjoy?

(But seriously, if Macavitar flips town, "pissed off" wouldn't begin to describe how I'd feel. I was crossing my fingers for a miracle. Our situation was dire, but thanks to the tracker, either we'd have one last chance to catch a Lannister or Greyjoy, or we could clear someone of being a member of one faction. But no.

You

had to come in, with your wacky "Mason-hunter with weird flavour who decided not to claim, targeted a nightkilled soft-claimed power role, and happened to be roleblocked on the night you targeted the player you were searching" claim, guaranteeing Cow's last tracking result was worse than wasted.)

==============
Macavitar? I'm going to ask you something very strange.

Please explain your in-depth reasoning for all of your night targets.

I know I agonize over night actions. I want every single passing whim that went through your head as you chose all four of your investigations.

For example, what made you decide to target xvart on N2? You never once mentioned having a town read on him before then. Who were your other N2 options? Who did you think of choosing early on D3 before Cow's reveal? Who else did you consider targeting on N3? Why Cow, and not Benmage? MacavityLock, who would you have targeted N3, had Cow been revealed as scum?

I'm serious. Your detailed thought process, in as many words as possible. Give me a glimpse into your mind.

Also, have you ever played in a game with a mason-hunter before?

===============

More points for diddin, Thor, and MagnaofIllusion, but I'll save them for tomorrow.

[Mina]

*crawls in sheepishly*

To be honest, I think I've been putting off thinking about this game because I haven't wanted to make the hard choice yet. And the truth is that I've just been getting more and going in circles more.

You know? I'm going to try something different tonight. Just making lots of short posts as ideas or questions come to me. Otherwise I get distracted and start procrastinating.

Macavitar, let me ask you something:

1) If you were in our positions, would you lynch yourself?

2) You've claimed that you wouldn't have pulled a claim like this out of your ass if you were scum. Imagine you

were

the last Lannister, and Cow came. How do you think you would have reacted?

3) If we lynch you today, who should we vote for tomorrow? How do you think we should proceed?

[Mina]

Right now, my family is here for Rosh Hashanah, so I don't have much time to post (doing this from my phone). I probably won't get the chance for a big post until Friday.

Just to clarify, the mods confirmed in our QT that he was 100% innocent, and not potentially investigation-immune. Apparently, even a godfather would have appeared as guilty had he been tested by the gods.

Magna, I thought the "hard choice" should have been obvious. Um...the only choice there is to make? Hammer Mac (or give the okay to someone else to do so, since apparently I set the deadlines here)? Because sadly, Mac is probably acting least scummy out of all the players remaining in the suspect pool, and he's the one with his hands on a dead body.

This will make Unsight suspect me even more, but I'm actually considering lynching a player in the Greyjoy pool today. There are fewer Greyjoy candidates than Lannister ones (although I'm making the generous assumption that Unsight isn't a Greyjoy). Lynching one of Magna and CSL gives us a 50-50 chance of hitting scum, even ignoring the chance that they might be Lannister.

The problem is that no one seems to agree on whom we should lynch if we don't get rid of Macavitar today. Half think diddin and Magna and the other half think CSL and Unsight.

When I get a chance to post from a computer, I'll have lots to say about MagnaofIllusion.

But just a couple of points that I don't need the quote function to make:

-You realize that there's a huge gap between your explanation for Unsight's motivations if he's a Greyjoy and if he's some other alignment? You show that his behaviour is optimal for a Lannister and town...but a Greyjoy would behave that way

if he thought he could survive three lynches

. Do you really think that you, me, AND CSL would be lynched before him? (Mind you, now I'm second-guessing myself and coming up with explanations for his behaviour...but I'll keep them to myself for now.)

-Why exactly can't Unsight be a Lannister? Because you're so sure that it HAS to be me or diddin, simply because your partnership analysis couldn't rule either of us out? (For the record, I can defend myself against your D3 case if people are interested, and explain what my reads on xvart, dana, and I doubt it were. I just haven't bothered because I wasn't on the table as a lynch option and more interesting stuff had happened. But I thought you misrepresented some of my behaviour. For example, you have to be shameless or selectively reading the thread to accuse me of

trying to get CMAR lynched

after his BP claim on D1.) Weren't you the one who said he fit as one before? (You just hadn't reread him because you were so sure he was scum already.)

I was actually looking for something particular from those questions, Mac (as I was when I asked about your night choices). You didn't fall for my first trap. I was hoping you'd slip and forget VP Baltar was making the decisions on N3. Your answers are reasonable (and fair point about the roleblocker), although I still think a townie shouldn't be so worried about drawing negative attention when he can easily justify his behaviour afterward.

Macavitar, you thought my questions were ridiculous

before

?

How's this? Make up the ultimate role claim. Go on.

I've just claimed that you're scum, and asked you to full-claim. You know that the name-cop is dead. You are scum who killed Mikujin last night.

What is the ultimate fakeclaim, that doesn't risk disaster if you're counterclaimed?

You've said you could make a safer claim. Prove it.

If, Macavitar is actually acting

less

Hey, diddin.

[Mina]

This town revolves around me! MWAHAHAHAHA!

(Somehow, I'm not sure that's a good thing.)

Happy Rosh Hashanah, MacavityLock. Except my grandmother is Moroccan, so we had couscous instead of kugel last night. Tonight will be more Eastern European fare.

No restrictions other than it should be believable, and unlikely to be counter-claimed, and fit with the roles in the game. Basically, a claim that would work as an alibi were you tracked to a nightkill.

Haha, the "hey, diddin" was because my last post was a work in progress on my phone browser over a full day. I'd planned on asking you questions, but ended up leaving them for later....

So hey, diddin. Here's what I wanted to ask you.

Why didn't you mention all those times that Benmage spoke to Macavitar in his ISO?

Every time someone brought it up, you went out of your way to ignore it. Do you still think it's unlikely that Benmage jailkept Macavitar?

To be honest, probably what's giving me the most second thoughts about the Mac lynch (other than his having prepared a PM for a rather unique fakeclaim--if for a role that I have no clue why Faraday would have bothered to include in the game--in advance) is that you seem to go out of your way to look as much like the last Lannister as possible.

Your answer for who the last Lannister might be if it wasn't Macavitar is "gee, I'd have to reread"--which is a HUGE cop-out. Your list of Greyjoy suspects is

everyone

who hasn't been cleared other than me...who you think shouldn't claim so as to leave my role hanging over the scums' heads (which gives you a few town points), but whom you haven't said you suspect or don't suspect. You don't seem to have any doubt, or even consider the possibility of Mac being town. (To be fair, neither does Unsight.)

I know you said you wanted to wait until Mac's flip to make up your mind? Well, guess what. Mac might not flip unless you do some scumhunting now.

[Mina]

By the way, a question neither Unsight nor CSL answered:

@ Mina: That statement meant, to me anyways, that he was scum trying to be town, and got killed for it. If this does not make sense, I'll try to re-word it.

What? Are you saying you

knew

Mikujin was scum?

Maybe you misunderstood my question. When Mikujin pulled his whole "I don't think Locke will have anything to reveal, because ha ha ha, I just might have been keeping an

eye

on him" shtick, did you know he was a power role? Did you think he was a watcher?

[Mina]

Um...

CSL, we're talking about Mikujin.

Who's dead.

And has been proven to be a power role (albeit a scum one).

What I'm saying is, did it occur to you, based on his hints, that he might be a watcher or investigative role?

Did you suspect Mikujin yesterday? Did you think he looked townish or scummish?

[Mina]

*sigh*

I wasn't

that

picky, but...

Fine. You, xvart, I doubt it, and danakillsu were given four fakeclaims: Catelyn Stark, Brynden Tully, Margaery Tyrell, and Ser Rodrik Cassel. Unfortunately, danakillsu used up one of them on Brynden.

Also, maybe I shouldn't confuse CSL by asking him even

more

questions, but who were you talking about when you said you don't think "he" has a role? Clearly it wasn't Mikujin.

diddin...yeah. I do think Unsight would have been the obvious choice for jailkeeping. Benmage

did

suggest Macavitar as a good namecop choice. But jailing him would have been poor play with two killers left per team.

But could you get back to me on your suspects?

[Mina]

From my role PM,

duh

.

Seriously, I just chose two random character names so as to recreate the effect of making a fakeclaim. (Rodrik was actually my fakeclaim in the mini.) Where do you

think

I got them?

So CSL, you're saying you didn't suspect Mikujin before his flip?

[Mina]

Not that it really matters, but I did ask you that question, Unsight.

Hey, Unsight. You never answered this question:

diddin, MacavityLock, CSL, Richard, MoI, Thor, and Unsight.

Answer this honestly. Did you figure out that Mikujin was a watcher (and not some other "weak" information role) on D3? Maybe I'm biased, because I knew about the tracker, so he had to be the watcher by process of elimination. But come on. "I've been keeping an eye on a few people"?

Actually I did, in post 2182.

@Mina : I don't know. Could have been a gambit for all we know. In one game (off mafiascum.net), I called someone out on being scum on the last day of the game as a VT and they threw in the towel. Imagine their surprise post-game! So I try not to judge things too quickly. Still, I could hear the proverbial "You've fallen for my trap card" when Cow name-claimed.

You'd answered my question about Cow's claim, but not about Mikujin's. I only bothered to quote my question to CSL because it was pretty much the same thing.

By the way, CSL is 100% confirmed not-Lannister. Remember this after my death.

Seriously. If there's one person we can guarantee wouldn't have picked up on Mikujin's softclaim AND been crafty enough to have lied about it (aside from the late vezokpiraka), it's CSL.

Don't think we can take this far enough to say he isn't a Greyjoy (because he didn't realize his buddy was a watcher), though. There might be some cognitive dissonance going on.

[Mina]

UNSIGHT IS AT L-1. NO ONE HAMMER YET.

Um...

WTF

?

How did everyone go from "Let's lynch Macavitar NOW, so hurry up and let me hammer, dammit!" to "Yeah, Macavitar is obviously town."

I swear, I think people are unvoting him because they liked his

fakeclaim

(which, OT, was hilarious).

What I love is that I was rabidly anti-Macavitar when Cow first revealed and a few people had doubts. And then when Macavitar's lynch looked inevitable, I started freaking out that he might be innocent. And now that all of a sudden, he's no longer the vote leader, I'm paranoid that I've been played. I'm spinning in circles of WIFOM.

I don't like an Unsight lynch. For one thing, I've never been sold on him as scum (although if he's town, then he's played badly). But for another, I'd rather lynch a likely Greyjoy if we're going to buck the Macavitar lynch. I'm still wondering if he'd be an okay information lynch because the evidence implying that he isn't a Greyjoy is pretty circumstantial (whereas CSL--unless someone would like to argue that he'd have killed Mikujin as scum--MacavityLock, and diddin are all cleared of being on at least one team, which might be important in endgame).

===============================

Thor, why did you have a scumread on Macavitar before? I'm asking this because part of what made me uneasy was that I couldn't pin anything on Mac based on his behaviour alone (other than a couple of throwaway comments). And maybe I was grateful to have someone else see the light on MagnaofIllusion.

Mac is in that annoying zone wherein he's giving reasonable answers that are within the realm of possibility for town, but still not obvtown. (Because no, he couldn't have left breadcrumbs, or claimed to have a confirmable role AFTER HE WAS SUGGESTED AS AN INVESTIGATION TARGET. And I just remembered something that kind of makes me want to lynch him again. His antitown and cowardly "boohoo, if I asked for Brienne to nameclaim, people might accuse me of

role-fishing

...and I might even be

voted for

!" coming from a player who knows how to defend himself and has a

confirmable protown role

.) I don't think he'd act that differently were he scum.

Also, I hate hate hate hate HATE comments like "Well, if he's scum, then he deserves the win, because he did something that only a smart scum player would do." Smart players get scum role PMs too, damn it!

The best point in his favour is that he reacted so quickly with

flavour

for his role PM. But personally, I don't think his claim was

that

unlikely for scum--I think mason-hunter is the kind of "fake"-confirmable, certain-not-to-be-countered role scum might come up with in a pinch, and unlike what Mac said, I personally think Brienne was very likely to appear in the game, so claiming it would have been reasonable as an act of desperation. Also, a one-sided mason-hunter whose target doesn't have anything in his role PM suggesting he can be found? Clearly, the Renly-Loras connection was mutual.

============================

Damn it, I had stuff I wanted to do, and a contest deadline tomorrow. And now I'll have to waste all day tomorrow on analysis, because I'll be working from Monday to Thursday and won't have time for Mafia before the deadline. It looks like the game might turn on me making a half-decent MagnaofIllusion case (although I don't know if it would turn

for the better

, judging by my track record).

I want to vote for MagnaofIllusion (both because he could fit as a member of either scum team and because his post have really, REALLY made me itch today) or Macavitar, but now I'm getting nightmares of a repeat of yesterday's quicklynch out of nowhere. I'd rather do the research before voting.

===========================

CSL is ridiculous. He doesn't seem to think like a normal human being. There's so much blatant cognitive dissonance there ("I'm voting Z even though I said before that I suspect X and Y more! No one ever ever hammer without express consent from Mina or I'll lynch you the next day...hey, QUICKHAMMER ON SOMEONE UNCLAIMED A WEEK BEFORE THE DEADLINE! Hurry up and lynch Mac already...vote Unsight, because I believe Mac's claim.") Questioning him on suspects doesn't work, because he doesn't have actual reasons for suspecting anyone.

If someone knows any trick of discerning Town!CSL from Scum!CSL, please share it.

============================

diddin...so wait. If you were forced to lynch anyone other than Macavitar today, would Unsight be your first choice?

The Greyjoys having a roleblocker AND a watcher is broken (although the set-up in the mini was kind of broken as well). Also, the roleblocker should have been on Locke that night unless they foolishly gambled on the WIFOM of the Lannisters also having a blocker.

[Mina]

On my phone now during my lunch break, so no time for a big post. I did start ISO-ing Magna last night, and admittedly, I'm no longer confident in my suspicions. I'll at least try to answer posts from today I didn't get around to before.

Could someone remove his vote from Unsight? I'd rather not leave Mac in a position where he can hammer an end the day at any time.

CSL is ridiculous. He doesn't seem to think like a normal human being.

That's because I'm autistic. You have a problem with that?

...oh,

fuck

.

I am so, so sorry. I meant because of the cognitive dissonance, since your flip on Mac came out of nowhere...

Goddamn it. I need to stop putting my foot in my mouth.

[Mina]

Also, Mina, I understand your frustration but just listen to your overall commentary, it reads like this; "Oh, I can't believe we're not going to lynch Mac because he may be scum, but he may not - I'm confused. I have a town read on Unsight but Unsight has been playing a terrible town game. CSL is hard to read, he's having cognitive dissonance - is that a scumtell for him? I'm not sure!"

You also appear to really want an MoI lynch but aren't even voting him yourself yet, allow me to quote you briefly - WTF?

Yeah. Pretty much.

I also might not want to lynch Magna. But he's scummy. So you should all vote for him. But you shouldn't vote at all, because I don't want anyone put at L-1. But maybe we should lynch Unsight instead. Even though I think he's town. Or maybe he isn't.

Did I make myself clear?

What I find hilarious is that you followed that post with "Mina is obviously town."

[Mina]

Aah!

This game. This fucking game.

Where do I start?

That I

finally

figured out what was bothering me about MagnaofIllusion (summarized version: the way he keeps hammering more on the consistency of his reads than trying to evaluate if they're valid, as well as how he comes across as though he tries to score points in his arguing, but I had a huge half-completed case that's saved on my computer)...only for my Internet to die on Tuesday? And that I went to my father's house to use his computer last night only to find out that it was broken? And that it's taken me an hour and a half to write a post that consists of nothing but venting on an iPhone, when there are two days before the deadline and I don't want to vote until I post my Magna case and ask Mac a few more questions?

That the very post that made me think Magna was scum made Thor come out with, "OMG, Magna is totally town, and we're totally not lynching him ever!" and then give a ranking of suspects that is the COMPLETE OPPOSITE of mine? (Re: CSL, I think that if everyone decides a Mac lynch is a bad idea, then a Magna or Unsight lynch is better strategically because it narrows two suspect pools. That said, it's really fucking annoying how every time I try to find a nugget of towniness behind that scummy exterior, CSL goes out of his way to do something antitown.)

That Unsight is a total moron who isn't even reading the thread, because he hasn't noticed that CSL UNVOTED MACAVITAR because he "believed his claim," then jumped to vote "NL," and because EVERYONE has expressed some form of doubt about Macavitar's guilt? That he uses "Macavitar is confirmed scum, and I'm confirmed town" as a justification for half his arguments?

That diddin won't go beyond one or two-line opinions or take a position on me even when I call him a scumbag to his face, because that would involve actual work?

That OMIGOD, CSL FUCKING SERIOUSLY VOTED NO-LYNCH, AND STILL HASN'T EXPLAINED WHY HE INEXPLICABLY FLIP-FLOPPED ON MACAVITAR? And...GAH! Why did everyone pressure SSBF to kill vezok instead?

That I think we're simultaneously WAY overthinking this and not thinking things through enough? (Be honest. Who here has so much as reread the thread today to see who fits as a Lannister or Greyjoy?) That I'm now back to thinking the scum are Macavitar and Magna, and yet they're less braindead and sheepish than almost all the surviving players? And that I'll probably change my mind again in two minutes, because I suck at this

That people seriously considered

No-Lynching

?

My God. That is it. I am seriously taking a long break from Mafia after this. I spend too much tome
either getting mad at myself or getting mad at other players.

[Mina]

But Thor, I had an outfit specially picked out for it!

This time, I have an excuse. As I said in my huge wall post above, I've been having Internet problems over the past couple of days.

Again, I think CSL is better off as a lynch for tomorrow than for today, because I don't think he can be a Lannister.

Aaaaaah.

Hey, Mac. What do you think about Magna's analysis posts? You were the one talking about cognitive dissonance. Do you think he genuinely believes that Unsight is scum?

Also, what are your thoughts on CSL and Unsight?

[Mina]

I also realized my attack of Unsight wasn't entirely fair, because he did say CSL kept his vote on Macavitar "for a long time." I still think his reasoning is very shallow.

[Mina]

For the quadruple!

Also, I'm sorry if I offended anyone in the above post. I was just venting.

I think my Internet is working again, so after work, I'll head back and post what I have on Magna. I wished I'd got it out earlier, so he'd have more time to react to it.

[Mina]

EBWOP: although I won't get home until 11:30-12 AM EST.

Now I'm really done.

[Mina]

This is the most indecisive, rudderless town ever. It's hilarious. We're all waiting for someone to turn the game around with a brilliant piece of analysis so we can blindly sheep him or her. Or for all the unconfirmed townies to act townish. Seriously, is it

that

hard to look town when you're town?

hascow, just a note about xvart: he'd actually proxied his vote to Locke, who made xvart vote Rifka. xvart himself said he'd prefer to lynch Unsight to Rifka. IMO, that's probably

more

of a point against Unsight (considering that xvart would have wanted to look like his scumbuddy's enemy), because xvart claimed out of the blue to suspect Unsight most, but then instead of casting his vote for a suspect, proxied his vote to someone who was critical of Unsight's wagon. I'll be kind of annoyed if it turns out that xvart and Unsight are scumbuddies and he was allowed to cop out of making a decision (although admittedly, that makes me biased ).

Gah. I've been up until 6 AM, and the Internet keeps distracting me from Mafia. I can't think straight right now. Um...I'm too tired to go into everything that bugged me about Magna and respond to stuff I didn't like in his defence (like where did I ever twist the facts against him to simultaneously accuse him of "master distancing" and "working obviously with Mikujin"? All I said is that he seemed to make weird assumptions that were similar to other weird assumptions made by flipped Greyjoys. And you

still

haven't given a good reason for why you thought Greyjoys were more likely to be on the early dana mob than the early SSBF mob. And I don't buy your explanation for your flip-flop on putting Axelrod at L-1.) But for now, here's part of what I'd written on Tuesday.

Except I'm already doubting myself. Because 1) he's put effort into rereads and partnership analysis, which is a towntell for all but the strongest players, 2) it's mostly his behaviour today that's bugged me, and 3) *twitch* CSL, you realize that you flip-flopped on

Macavitar

, and not on Unsight...and people have asked you five hundred times why you said you believed his claim mere hours after saying you'd hammer him...and...and....

My God, CSL.

Why are you doing this

? Why, dammit?

WHY

? *sobs* How can

scum

look this scummy? This game has made me a supporter of early policy lynches.

=================
So I think I can finally pin down what's been bugging me about Magna.

You know what I think it is? How MagnaofIllusion keeps on reiterating that his suspect list is diddin/Mina = Lannister and Unsight = Greyjoy, that his suspect list has always been diddin/Mina and Unsight, that he is 100% consistent in his suspicions of diddin/Mina/Unsight, and his reasoning for suspecting diddin/Mina/Unsight had been clearly explained in ISO X on Day 4, so back off.

Seriously, if someone wants me to quote every time he does this today, I will. It's almost once or twice a post.

Not only does he use this as a defence every time someone looks at him funny (even when his suspicions of diddin/me/Unsight are barely related to the accusation against him), but he helpfully reminds us all that he's always suspected Y (as clearly laid out in ISO X on Day 4) every time he attacks Y.

It's like the flipside of the joke that inconsistency is a towntell. Rather than worry about such details as, you know,

whether diddin, Unsight, and I are actually scum

, he's more interested in proving the consistency of his reads.

Because maybe I'm just assuming everyone else is as neurotic as I am, but right now is when town should be

floundering

. Not saying, "I solved the game on Day 4, so here is my scum list."

If you want to address that you think my suspicions that Unsight and diddin / Mina are scum is suddenly a new position please do so. Otherwise you are throwing around generalities. I also find the unspoken assumption that I am hunting Town by not suspecting you is not a thought process I would expect to be coming from Town. Now you are making me paranoid about my read on you.

See, this is probably the only time Magna shows

doubt

in his kneejerk certainty that Mac is telling the truth. And I

sort

of see where Magna is coming from--yeah,

technically

, scum would be more likely to attribute this to scum--although I can also see town!Mac thinking that the evidence against him looks bad. But his "now you are making me paranoid" is one line tacked on to the end. Call it gut, but it rings false. I don't feel that Magna is really a paranoid innocent second-guessing himself.

[Mina]

Hmm. I just thought of something.

Mods: does jailkeeping prevent someone from being targeted in any way, or just from being nightkilled? For example, could a jailkept player be successfully investigated?

Mod ~ The mods will not confirm or deny the exact aspects of any role.
I.e. Nice try, Mina.

[Mina]

I'm sorry.

For the record, I was referring 90% to myself (hence the "we") when I said the town was indecisive and rudderless.

I am making an effort to figure this out. I'm just better at questions and analysis than at actually coming to the right conclusion. But I'll try to keep my doubts and angsting to myself instead of in the thread if it irritates people to read them.

@VP Baltar: that actually wouldn't be good news for you, since Benmage was suggesting that Locke investigate you. It would make you a less likely jailkeeping target.

[Mina]

Oh, fuck.

Freaking out now.

Utterly freaking out now.

Yes, I'm wishy-washy scum, a waffling coward who can't make up her mind, and I should take a stand even if it's a completely wrong stand based on bad information or analysis that loses the town the game because otherwise I'm copping out, blah blah blah...

So here we are. I've thought about it, and lynching Macavitar today probably isn't the best idea if we aren't confident that he's scum. The good news is that if we lynch Unsight or MagnaofIllusion, there's a very good chance that we catch the last Greyjoy and we're down to a 50-50 shot of lynching a Lannister in LYLO. So it couldn't really hurt to lynch Macavitar later instead of today...unless he's left with someone who trusts him over diddin at end game. I have a bad feeling the game will come down to a coin toss. But that's assuming CSL can't be a Lannister, and not ruling out Unsight as a Greyjoy (since the evidence--him not voting Axelrod and pushing those who doubted Mac's guilt as Greyjoys--isn't damning).

That's the approach that minimizes our risk if we mislynch. If someone is utterly convinced that someone else is scum, now's when I'd like to hear it. Or if someone has a good reason for why MagnaofIllusion or Unsight can't be a Lannister/Greyjoy.

I'm so mad at myself for procrastinating beforehand. Now Magna's V/LA until Monday, and can't answer my questions or defend himself. Magna is the kind of player who makes me scared shitless of lynching him without something like an investigation result. But he and CSL fit best as Greyjoys, and CSL can't be a Lannister...

I'll be able to check the thread from my phone tomorrow, so I can move my vote to wherever it's most needed. Any lynch is better than no lynch.

Um...Faraday? So, hypothetical question. I've been reading this game. It's sooooo fascinating! Pity about the jailkeeper being lynched on D1. Say, had that poor jailkeeper survived, could his target also have been investigated by the tracker? Like, would the tracker have got No Result or heard he'd stayed home? No reason why I'm asking. I'm just curious about what might have been. Just like some of the players in post-game were interested in the way jailkeepers work. You didn't mention anything about investigation immunities, only kill immunities.

...

...

...

...okay, it was worth a try.

[Mina]

Trying to respond to Magna is a pain in the ass on a phone.

Okay, at this point I will vote for anyone just to get a lynch. This is ridiculous.

Cow? Unsight? Richard? Who's going to be around before the deadline?

Thor, it's too late to lynch CSL now. Move your vote to Magna or Unsight. Even Macavitar would be better.

Fuck. I wish I'd just let Richard hammer.

[Mina]

Every time I try to reply to this thread, I get cross-posted ten times!

Oh and i thought mina might appreciate this Herodotus quote; "Far better it is to have a stout heart always and suffer one's share of evils, than to be ever fearing what may happen."

Thanks. <_<

nth-ing everyone who thinks both the set-up and the flavour were fantastic. I remember the thrill I felt when I got my Kingsguard PM and realized just how many twists and secrets this game had. Overall, it might have been somewhat in favour of the town (I think so many protective roles were redundant), but with 9/26 baddies and three kills a night, it could have gone either way.

That said, I think this was probably the absolute shittiest I've ever felt about a Mafia game. I'm still not entirely over it. It's also annoying that I worked my ass off on the last day trying to figure stuff out, when I had ended my other games and finally had the time I'd wanted all along to devote to this, and it was all to the detriment of my faction. Pretty much every time I made a post this game, it ended up indirectly helping the scum. So Faraday, maybe I should have a bit

less

confidence.

I'd already mentioned this in the graveyard thread, but there were key moments at which I was soooo close to voting for Macavitar or Magna, or ending the day, but I wanted just a bit more time to be 100% sure. And then people would be complimenting me, instead of booking the next plane ticket to Montreal so they could dismember me limb from limb. On the last day, I'd finally made up my mind to vote Macavitar after Unsight's recent posts came off as townish, started explaining my reasoning...and then had to get off the computer unexpectedly. And then when I finally got back on, at about an hour before the deadline, Richard had already hammered.

And I really don't know what the hell was wrong with me. I was getting way too stressed out about a simple decision, to the point that I needed to walk away from the game at some times just to clear my head. I was terrified about making a vote that would swing things if I was wrong.

Something that was making me hesitate to vote Mac, but that I couldn't mention in the thread, was that I was banking on one more tracking result. So I figured that even if we mislynched from the Greyjoy pool that day, I could track one of Magna or CSL and then 100% guarantee that we lynched a Greyjoy. Since Mac couldn't be a Greyjoy and would almost certainly be lynched in LYLO even if we left him alive today, it couldn't hurt to go for the Greyjoys--because a Mac mislynch would mean we'd still have too many leads in both the Lannister and Greyjoy pools. (In retrospect, that logic makes ZERO sense, because leaving Mac for LYLO would just mean we guarantee a loss to the Lannisters if Mac was town.)

Goddamn Magna ruining that plan. *shakes fist in impotent rage*

Congratulations to the scum, both of whom pulled off miracles to get out of a tight situation. Reading the hydra QT impressed me with how much effort Mac put into his claim (although goddamn it, it actually occurred to me that you were deliberately taking your time with that fake fakeclaim just to say, "see, SEE? I could have NEVER come up with such an awesome fakeclaim in so little time.") In spite of my nitpicking in the graveyard thread, I think this was a fair way of resolving the conflict. I think Seacore made a good point that since Mac and MoI had the power to affect the outcome, they technically "won" more than the town did.

But I'm still disappointed that not everyone died. That would have been the most fitting ending ever to

A Clash of Kings

Mafia, particularly since town wins when all the players in the game of thrones are dead.

Also, maybe I was a little biased, since a totally out-of-left-field town win would have turned a painful and humiliating loss that lay on my head into an entertaining story.

I don't have much of a problem with the whole "playing to win" thing. I'd predicted this would happen, because a draw feels pretty much the same as a win. Mind you, it's a little deflating that both scum teams were willing to do something that would technically harm their own win chances purely because they were so horrified by the idea of those icky stupid and incompetent town players getting a win.

[Mina]

Too many times that sort of thing happened in this game, I was just a little too slow.

You know, this game has given me the impression that we're too much alike.

I don't know if you should take that as a compliment.

[Mina]

<3 Cow. I'm still not sure if I played well or poorly, judging by the...um, mixed reviews I've been getting.

You know, I'd be interested in hearing if any unspoiled spectators were swayed by Mac's pleas at any point, or if they were banging their heads against the wall in disgust the whole time.

But anyway, general

wall-posting

comments (I'm going to format this as multiple posts, because this is long even for me):

Seacore, I actually tracked

Drippereth

on N2, not Cow. The latter was my original target, but then I changed my mind.

Also, just a question. How did the godfather role work with no alignment cop? Was it just a red herring? Would Locke have got a fake result (for example, danakillsu as Brynden Tully)?

Both scumteams played very well (with a couple of exceptions who shall remain unnamed). BTW, I'm a bit surprised they didn't have daytalk. I'd thought Percy and Mikujin hopping on Raivann's wagon like that was a coordinated bus.

People have already lauded Mac and Magna, but I'll give some credit to Percy, whose outstanding play on the first couple of days was overshadowed by them. The fact that he was elected the towniest player in the game should tell you something. (By the way, Percy, just out of curiosity, did you ever really suspect me, or were you just trying to damage my town cred?) xvart also played a great game, although accidental busses are cheating, damn it. Scum often outperformed the town in the scumhunting department. Credit to VPBaltar catching Mikujin, Mac catching Magna, and Percy catching dana. Mikujin did well for a newer player, particularly with his ruthless distancing.

The town had its moments of competence (special mention goes to Locke, LynchMePls, julienvonwolfe, Thor earlier on, Drippereth on D1, Cow at points, and Benmage when he started playing) as well as lots of luck. Unsight, Rifka, and diddin had good reads, even if they failed to look townish. But yeah, some players being apathetic and inconsistent and looking more like scum than the actual scum didn't help. It's annoying that a scumteam is as strong as its most valuable player, but a town is as weak as its weakest members. I wish more people realized that the most important thing a vanilla townie can do to help the town (at least as helpful as having your vote in the right place) is to LOOK TOWN.

As for me, leaving aside the Epic Tracking Fail, I think my only successes this game (other than mostly being read as town) were voting Raivann on D1, tracking a killer on N4, and

finally

realizing who the last two scum were when it was painfully obvious (but not having enough confidence to actually vote for them). During the middle of the game, my reads were miles off target, and I didn't call people on stuff that rang alarm bells because of multi-game overload. And of course, I think I averaged about five humiliating statements a day along the lines of "How dare you pick on poor innocent Percy and Mikujin, who are definitely not Greyjoys" and "danakillsu just seems so

genuine

."

[Mina]

(As an afterthought, maybe my plan to have Cow claim my tracking results also counts as a success, even though it didn't work out.)

=======================================================

3) Mina and Thor, you guys played fairly well overall, but just lost your way at the end there. It happens and I wouldn't feel too bad about it. Both of you were considerable threats throughout the game and probably would have been NK'ed sooner had various other role related priorities popped up for either team. I dont' need to talk about lynching tracked results and all of that business.

You know, I was actually trying NOT to be nightkilled.

I was a bit surprised at seeing how close I was at various points to being killed when I wasn't attacking any scum and was getting some negative attention. Too bad no one tried, because apparently Axelrod protected me N1 and N2 <3.

But yeah, that's the story of my Mafia career. "Looks like a threat" =/= "actual threat." I told people I was much better at looking town than at catching scum, but nooooo, they just accused me of AtE-ing.

Mina, apparently I live to make you nervous, whether you're scum and think I'm SK, or this. Please please don't quit even if you are exhausted after this game; I really do enjoy playing with/against you. Also, I loved the fake claim request, some of the most fun I've ever had in a game was coming up with it.

<3

I swear, you are like my evil nemesis. You complete me! And yes, I have a tinfoil hat superglued to my head.

As an aside, I still can't believe that your

fake

fake claim resulted in two people unvoting you. I was like...um, WTF, guys, you noticed he said it was fake, right? If anything, it made me want to lynch you more, because it was too good.

[Mina]

To everyone (mainly Locke) who kept saying that I was playing for the draw Day 5 and 6 - that's incorrect. I was playing to get to endgame. I need Mac to survive those days to narrow down the Town enough to get to 4 or 3 players left.

I'm not slighting your play (you did pull off a miracle), and I don't think you'd have been able to justify a switch to Mac in-thread anyway, but I disagree that this was the best strategy.

On

Day Five

, you needed Mac alive. But on Day Six, town didn't have any more mislynches. Macavitar had outlived his useful lynch. Lynch Mac, kill diddin, and you're down to a four player MYLO. Either lynch CSL for the win (using the argument that there's no need to go to night with two confirmed players alive) or go to night and kill Richard. The only risk is if Thor wonders why he's alive instead of Richard.

Your strategy meant banking on Mac not crosskilling you AND convincing the surviving townie to play against his win con just because he liked you better. You could have got a win instead of a draw.

I feel a little slighted that I didn't get more credit for getting Mac off the hook when he was tracked.

Oh, do you really need to hear us tell you that you played a great game? You know it.

BTW, just curious about something. How much of your vote count and partnership analysis was sincere, and how much fake? I see you mention thinking I was a Lannister in the QT. Also, was your idea to look at the early dana mob for Greyjoys instead of the early SSBF mob unconsciously inspired by Percy, born of the knowledge that Mikujin was evil, or just a coincidence?

I do think you started looking like you were pushing an agenda over the last couple of days, but you were stuck in a situation where you had to say that 2 + 2 = 5. And hey, you got away with it.

I think I helped divert Thor and make Mina question herself with my arguments that it was 'logical' and

drawing some of the heat to myself.

Wait, that was your plan?

AAAAAAAAAAAH, GODDAMN YOU.

I'D BE LIKE, YEAH, WE SHOULD PROBABLY LYNCH MACAVITAR...BUT WAIT, I NEVER MADE THAT CASE ON MAGNA THAT HE KEPT PESTERING ME ABOUT. HOLD OFF ENDING THE DAY UNTIL I GET AROUND TO DOING THAT. AND MAYBE I SHOULD VOTE MAGNA BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH MAC

COULD

BE NON-LANNISTER, MAGNA DOESN'T KNOW THIS, SO HIS REFUSING TO CONSIDER HIS GUILT MIGHT BE SCUMMIER THAN MAC'S BEHAVIOUR...

And then I ended up not voting for either of you because I couldn't make up my mind in time.

YOU MANIPULATIVE FIEND, I HATE YOU. *bawws*

Plus personally I will get satisfaction (nothing personal Mina, but you are too much a pain in the asss for me) in offering Mina.

I will get my revenge for this one day.

5. Miku’s NK – If you haven’t read the Greyjoy QT I was really counting on Miku being the best shot at an outright Greyjoy victory. This kill really devesated my moral for a bit and unfortunately stuck Mac and I in a bad PoE scenario.

No offence, but you guys totally deserved that one. Because seriously. Speaking as a townie, I wanted to beat him with a blunt object at the beginning of the day, because I knew he was a goner. He was just so blatantly a watcher. If you claim watcher, you will be nightkilled. No way around it. Had there only been one scumteam alive, I'd have suspected him for it (because only scum would have a motivation for telegraphing their role like that)...but instead I just died a little inside.

I'm a bit surprised at how willing all the scum were to put themselves out there as strong scumhunters and threats in a multi-scum environment. Actually, on the site I usually play (which is actually a forum devoted to

A Song of Ice and Fire

!), there's something known as Cerwyn's Bible. Since games are alted, it's easier to break with your usual meta, though.