A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[MagnaofIllusion]

Vote: Super Smash Bros Fan.

You've never played a game with me so the fact that you know I like long posts indicates you've been heavily Wiki studying other players.

Raise: MacavityLock.

Standard questions - Any players with histories of bitter rivalry / hate? I'd like to know before we get too far into the game if there's a Ythan / McGriddle level of distaste I have to factor into my reads.

[MagnaofIllusion]

But, that's a good thing, right?

Only if you believe that meta is a strong scum-hunting tool. Which I don't. So in my eyes no, it's not a good thing.

[MagnaofIllusion]

On the whole issue of the importance of the Double voter mechanic and potential harm to Town this post says it best –

A double voter is not that big of a deal. It's hardly a role that would (by itself) merit auto-Doc protection. I'm going to vote to raise someone I think is town, and then I'm going to pretty much forget about it. Even if we "raised" a scum, it would not be a problem until the end-game, which is a long, long way off.

I'm not those type of people who let meta dominate who I find suspicious, but saying that meta is a bad thing entirely is not true. Sure you shouldn't rely on it, but it can help give you the idea of how a player will play. For example, I am not voting Deer because he prefers smaller posts overall.

Ok, glad that you have clearly stated you position on Meta.

Also fosing MagnaofIllusion for voting someone for purely meta-gaming reasons, and then putting an unexplained raise vote on MacavityLock. Trying to slip something in to help prop up your scum buddy?

MagnaofIllusion, did you vote SSBF because you thought SSBF was more likely to be scum for meta-ing you, or because you wanted to protest against meta?

Voting for SSBF based on his initial post being meta driven was a testing measure. I wanted to see how he would react / explain his wiki-research. He explained his position in a manner I find acceptable. As for ML it was another testing measure. I wanted to see how self-consistent his “all not raising themselves are scummy” post was by raising him and not myself with no explanation. Note he said not one peep about it which tells me he wasn’t that invested in that stance.

But surely not scummy, even if you think it's a waste of time. Who is more likely to try to "meta" someone?

It’s at best a null tell in my eyes. The player more likely to try to “meta” someone actively is the player who believes strongly in meta. Town, Mafia and 3rd parties with that sort of believe each have reasons to use it (scum-hunting versus Town PR hunting, etc).

(4) That means you're not scum with LynchMePLZ, but you seized an opportunity to get a safe non-buddy wagon going on what you hoped might be a vulnerable player.

Please elaborate on how a single vote consistitutes an actual wagon and why you think Ani is likely to be a vulnerable player. If you can do convincingly so I’ll be inclined to agree that Deer is obvscum.

I didn't want to start a wagon. Again, sorry, it was a legitimate question.

Why are you apologizing if it was a legitimate question?

Obviously you didn't read the 2 pages of thread because I clearly stated RVS was over.
Again, pay attention, RVS = OVER

You know I would not have guessed that the identity of the RVS Lawyer who showed up would be you CMAR. You’ll be allowing me to test a pet theory of mine in any case.

This makes me want to do a Fonz on you guys. So I will.
Please agree to the following contract or explain why you will not.
1) I will not claim VT unless I am at L1, I am the leading wagon with an impending deadline, or during a massclaim, or our claim can somehow shed light on someone elses (for example: someone claims to have tracked you going somewhere).
2) I will provide reasoning with each and every one of my votes.
3) I will not selfvote, barring the 2:1:1 endgame scenario.
4) I will not lie about my roles. Period.

First of all appealing to authority (the Fonz) isn’t a good way to start this. And while I agree that all these points in general is Pro-town and I play in manner consistant with them I don’t see the point of asking that everyone agree in draconian style. And historically haven’t the biggest proponents of these lists end-up scum when all was said and done?

I find it pretty hilarious that you have a "genuine scum read" on me when we're only on Page 3 and nothing has even happened yet. If you have actual reasons, I'd like to see them. Otherwise, stop trolling.

Saying that scum-slips can’t happen early in the Day is foolish.

I'm not going to agree to a contract I will potentially break (see: bandwagoning), nor am I going to agree to a contract proposed by the only person in the game who is pushing on me. When, and only when, you are dead, I will agree to the contract.

The fact that you managed to contradict yourself within two sentances makes me think you are just making your stances up as you go.

IIoA is a nulltell, too, along with contradictions.

Contradictory statements / self-inconsistency is not a null tell. Trying to state it is raises right up on my suspicion list.

Town reads though are still suspicious, because there are likely more stellar town players than power roles.

Can you explain to me how this is relevant to the discussion of whether Town reads aid the Mafia in NKs or not? Because all you’ve done here is say that there are likely more good players than PRs. Bravo, what’s that significance?

Finally can you justify your “policy lynch” comments regarding Drip-Hyrda as anything other the personal grudge voting?

If you once again say that deer is scum I for one will vote for you and either if you or deer flips scum I will held a crusade to lynch the other

Sense – this makes none. Seconding your further explanation of what the heck you are trying to say.

Please use only this account and try to remember to log off from your main account

I want to be raised as the new hand.
I am playing by role can't remember who is that called.
I am the next in line for the throne raise me.

Vezo I’m going to ask this straight out – are you actively trying to cultivate a VI post style or are you generally this bad a player? I don’t want to insult you but the quotes above just make absolutely no sense and don’t contribute to scum-hunting at all.

Unvote, Vote: RichardGHP.

Your theories on what is or isn’t a scum-tell and your self-inconsistancy are the strongest scum-read I have at the moment.

Unraise, Raise:alexrod

You seem by far the most reasonable player that's not me so far.

Finally I'll be V/LA starting at 4pm EDT until Monday morning due to weekend family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

First let me welcome Cow –

For the record, if people raise Axelrod, can it be for his actual c"ases and suspicions, and not because you agreed with one point he made about raising? I have no problems with Axelrod so far (although there are players I trust more). But that post alone is a very shallow reason to trust someone. Scum are just as capable as innocents of writing a reasonable post that essentially says, "I don't think we should worry too much about raising."

Where do you see anyone who vote to raise Axelrod doing so on the presented basis that “he wrote a nice post on Raising”? I personally voted to raise him for the totality of his posts, which were in my mind very Pro-Town. If you don’t “have a problem” with Axelrod why go out of the way to undermine the credibility of those Raising him?

@ Those

who jumped on Richard’s 196 – vezo and SSBF – can you explain why it is scummy? If anything it reads as frustrated which is at best a null-tell.

Okay, I will get caught up soon, but to those voting to raise axelrod, I would just like to say that whoever gets the double vote will likely die quickly and axelrod already endorsed me getting the double vote. I'm willing to take that sacrifice for town. I'll admit axel seems to be a very good player and I'll likely take his advice into consideration when using a double vote. Just putting it out there.

First people would vote for you directly as a double-voter if they trusted you to use it wisely. Second given your pointless softclaim later why would you be volunteering for a position that may or may not be NK bait?

Who would be in favor of raising the Drippereth hydra? Who would be against? Please explain your decision.

I’d be against it simply because I don’t think having a double vote really improves your ability to play given your presented playstyle. I believe a double-voter power would better complement someone with a more declaratory style such as Cow or Percy.

Sometimes we make it past day 2 if there is no outed cop or similarly important power role drawing protectio - otherwise the scum may assume that we are protected, since we tend to be a priority NK target.

Are you referencing the game history of the Hydra unit in this quote or are you referencing you individual histories?

@DripHydra – Now that you have unvoted Richard based on his claim who is your top suspect?

Absent a CC or catching him in a lie, the claim is believable.

Do you believe given the previous Mini game where fake claims were provided that there is any chance of a CC based on a specific name?

Bronn, not Bran....The bad guys will have safe claims...I was just thinking, out loud.

(Must be more than one anti-town faction)

Italiced for emphasis … where does your feeling about this come from? Is it based on the source material?

[MagnaofIllusion]

They use their vote to scum hunt, and pretty effectively from what I've seen so far, so how is giving them twice the vote bad? They may not be twice the effective scumhunter, but I think it would definitely improve their play. At the least they could use one vote to push their top suspect and the other to probe at people like they regularly do.

My point is that DripHydra can still continue to probe at players with a single vote while highlighting their top suspect as above. If the style is effective with one vote (which the concensus is that it tends to be so) then adding a second vote doesn’t necessarily increase the effectiveness in my mind. A declarative player who builds cases can thus build two strong cases and utilize their vote to back them, or to build a single strong case and support it twice.

Note please that DripHydra currently has an inactive vote but is still managing to place pressure on players.

You believe there is one giganto scum team?

Personally I have no clue. I’m not versed at all in the source material and don’t see anything in the flavor to lead me to think anything regarding the possible make-up of Scum in this game. We have the name “War of the 5 Kings” which indicates possible multiple factions. On the opposing side we have the line “Following Ned's death fragile alliances were made as an effort to make sure a rightful King sat on the Iron Throne started” which indicates banding together, which alludes to a solo scum faction.

@Rifka re: 327 – Please indicate whether you think post volume is the only measurable for activity in a game. Are 5 short posts (ala Deer) worth more than a single post like Cow’s? Please explain how that post is not IoA? Having reviewed your ISO I see a first post vote for Deer, some jousting with Benmage and little actual scum-hunting. Who are your top scum-reads at the moment? Do you think Deer is still scum? ISO 8 seems to say you would be willing to hammer Richard yet you barely address his play at all to that point (only in ISO 2). Why?

[MagnaofIllusion]

First let me say welcome to Riavann and thanks to Deer. I wish more lurkers would have the good sense to replace rather than playing poorly.

Its definitely information over analysis. This kind of breakdown isnt available automatically, is it?

No it’s not automatically available. The point is that you’ve splattered the thread with a whole bunch of numbers but tell us nothing about what you think they mean. I ask again - Do 5 posts from someone like Mukuji (or insert your favorite low content poster) mean they are contributing more than 1 post from Percy (or a similar large content per post player)? Based on you list who are most likely to be scum?

You aren’t taking a stand. You are saying “Look at all these numbers”. You imply by the title using the negatively connotated word “lurker” that those with lower numbers are bad, but you don’t say anything definitive. Which is why IoA is generally considered a scumtell.

Well it was this post but I consider CMAR being scumier that this.

Care to document why? Or are you just looking for a safe looking spot on a secondary wagon to park your vote?

Granted, flavor is flavor who cares I was just thinking out loud...but let me ask you this, have you been in a large game of this size(on this site) with 1 anti-town faction. If so please tell me which one or link.

The answer to your question is no – I have no completed large games on this site. My experience with 16+ player games comes from another site where the vast majority of the time there is only one scum group (up to 8 in a 35 player game) and a number of 3rd parties.

ILLOGICAL
ILLOGICAL
ILLOGICAL

SYSTEM FAILURE

Why on Earth does this apply to Drippereth, but not other players? It's only a generality. You're moving down on the town/scum list.

Is that really the conclusion you draw from this? I specifically identified you as you were the

ONLY

player to ask specifically about whether others thought you should be raised or not? Where did I say it only applied to DripHydra? Any number of other playstyles I believe would not be enhanced by a second vote.

As for moving me down the list that’s fine if you want to. I’m not playing the game to appease other players. I’m here to hunt down scum.

Why hascow? Do we ignore DrModem's play? Also, weird that both picked out the same Raise candidates.

Dr. Modem was barely here long enough for his bad play to taint what I consider to be Cow’s well reasoned play. Also Percy and Cow are not my only raise candidates, given I’m currently raising Axelrod. I’d consider raising myself (of course), Percy, Cow, you (Macavity) and I’m on the fence about Mina. Alexrod’s recent low activity level has prompted me to

Unraise.

Unvote, Vote:Mikujin

The level of blatant active lurking and scuminess you bring to the table is mindboggling.

The content of 360, in which Kleedrac's main defense is that DripHyrda is a jackass could have easily bought my vote. Saying that their logic is bad but not saying why isn’t defense, it is the equivalent of 2nd grade “No, you are stupid” name calling. As we approach deadline I'd certainly entertain Kleedrac as a vote.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Just to make this short and sweet -

Raise = Percy

[MagnaofIllusion]

Welcome Locke.

I like the DGBish intuition over logic. I think the aggressive style makes scum uncomfortable because they lack control. If their buddy gets fingered they cannot use logic to extract him from the lynch, and when they flail at the accuser it reveals them. At any moment they could go from snug as a bug to being under heat
Plus its a popular misconception if you dont post reasoning, you dont have any reasoning.

Funny that it works like a double edged sword when applied against Town. And of course it’s only a strong playstyle when people are willing to just blindly follow the ‘gut’ read. Too many players unwilling to follow along and the bandwagon, however accurately aimed it may be, and the heat just fizzles.

It’s also a misconception that people asking for reasoning behind votes is scummy, as most players aren’t mind-readers.

I thought it best to make my case against the person I was most suspicious of rather than try to address every individual instance of suspicion I'd have come across in my 17 page read. I figured my most relevant thoughts would be the important ones to share.

So the player you found most suspicious happens to coincide with the player who (IMO) is by far the weakest link in the game, pure lurkers aside? At this point assuming we have a Vig of some sort I’d suggest vezo falls into pure VI territory and would be a logical vig target. He’s the type of player, as others have noted, that we are going to learn nothing useful from his lynch.

I did not want people to accuse me of parroting later on, as I knew I was guilty of parroting some of Drippereth's last post.

Admitting that you were parroting doesn’t make the suspicious nature of it fade away. You’ve simply done the job of anyone who would make the point for them.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna: Scummier, due to latching on to "parroting" without looking at context, attempting an easy dig.

Hmm I have to ask … did you actually read what I wrote? Here it is for your consumption again –

I did not want people to accuse me of parroting later on,

as I knew I was guilty of parroting some of Drippereth's last post.

Admitting that you were parroting doesn’t make the suspicious nature of it fade away. You’ve simply done the job of anyone who would make the point for them

1. SSBF says he was guilty of parroting (bolded for emphasis). I’m not going to bother to dig up to see what context a player posted in if he himself acknowledges his own play / tell.
2. My statement related solely to his admission and that doing so didn’t clear any possible suspicion.

You assertion that I ‘latched on’ is incorrect. That fact that you label it scummier than someone who specifically admitted to parroting (whether you believe it was or not) is at best opportunistic.

What makes you think that Vezo is simply a village idiot (I assume that's the VI thing)? At this point he hasn't really contributed a lot, but as I'm not familiar with him myself I can't assume he'll never give us anything we can glean knowledge from. I didn't like what he "contributed" and thought it scummy.

My assessment is based on his contributions.

1. His posts lack well defined logic (ISO 7 and 11 stand out)
2. His posts lack substance (most are short 1 liners)
3. He vote hops with abandon, but doesn’t even effectively bandwagon (ISO 19 – 25 as example)
4. Blantant disregard for even properly voting someone (spelling Kleedrac’s name Keldraac)

The one thing that I see as scummy so far (as opposed to poorly done) is his promise to post a case on CMAR in 14 that has never appeared. As I said I don’t see what sort of information we will get out of his lynch at this stage based on his game contributions.

I'm still getting caught up, but first I'm going to unvote: SSBF. No reason that vote should still be there.

You have made 5 posts in 10 Days, most of which contain only 1 or 2 lines with minimal game content. If this game is that overwhelming for you please replace out.

Someone send servants to start preparing the Tower of the Hand, it looks like Percy will be taking residence there soon.

I note you are not currently voting to Raise. How do you feel regarding Percy as the Hand? If you are not in favor of him who would you support and why are you not voting for them?

@I doubt it First are you an alt? If you are not, here’s some initial sincere advice: this game is out of your league and you should seek to be replaced asap and join a newbie game. Moreover regardless of alignment you are probably going to be lynched soon because Oh My God U Suck, pissing off whichever people/side you are on

Question 1 – Why does it matter if he is an alt? Would your criticism be invalid if he was one?
Question 2 – You pick I doubt it as someone way out of their league but don’t address any number of other players who have made less than stellar contributions. Why shouldn’t the presumption be made that this is solely because he chose to attack your play?

I’ll be V/LA from 4pm EDT today until Monday for my usual weekend family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Welcome to Julianvonwolfe and Kinetic!

Percy made me google Loras...fuckina! Definitely is a homosexual.

How does this qualify as anything but filler? Or do you think Richard’s claim is more credible given the fact that it is flavour correct?

Magna, the part that interested me most from your post was "the suspicious nature of it". Any parroting that occurred was not suspicious, and you trying to make out like it was is rather scummy.

Disagree with your conclusion as I said in the quote – it was simply an observation that admitting to a behaviour does not inherently make it less suspicious. Ordinarily parroting is generally considered a not pro-town move. Relative to this circumstance SSBF admitted to the behaviour, regardless of whether he cross-posted or not. Let me ask you this – why would SSBF admit that he was parroting if he wasn’t? I don’t see any logical reason for a town player to admit to something if they didn’t believe they were doing it.

unvote, Vote: Kleedrac choo choo!. Someone made a good point about yeah he was pissed but that could just as easily come from scum

Maybe it was Drip-Hydra in the post right above yours

But explain to me how that small point alone is enough to justify switching your vote. Previous to this vote you stated that you were “you believed him”.

Super smash goes out of his way to appear townie which makes him scummy.

Care to demonstrate how is his “going out of his way to appear townie”?

Standing by for hammer duty I prefer raivann lynch. He was the original scum deer and still is

What do you find so important about being the hammer on a lynch? What does it benefit town that you be on “hammer” duty?

If Kleedrac is replaced with someone decent, I'd be just as down for a Raivann lynch I guess. But my point about the timing is still valid.

What about the replacement for Kleedrac makes what you say is his scummy play disappear?

[MagnaofIllusion]

First posting to say I’m here. I didn’t have a chance to post my usual weekend V/LA Friday. I’ll have a catch-up post Monday but wanted to address the following.

@MagnaofIllusion: Your vote is still on SSBF. Do you think parrotgate is further evidence of SSBF scum? Why are you still voting SSBF?

My vote is not on SSBF – look at the Mod’s vote counts. Since then I had voted for Richard and then Miku. A good amount of my content apparently got eaten in the move. Review my ISO in the archive of the old forum as compared to this one. I think intervention on the part of Mith / other admins is probably warranted.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Since deadline is looming large I’m going to restrict the majority of this post to the three lynch candidates – Budja / kleedrac, CMAR, and Raivann. I’m looking at their ISOs and deciding who I think deserves a vote most –

Budja / Kleed – His early case on CMAR, while poorly presented, stands out to me in light of CMAR’s resurgence as a viable lynch candidate. Klee made the case on 6/6. CMAR began lurking heavily on the same day. The early attacks on Klee, at least the ones he bothered to respond to, centered on his Town read on Richard and his lurking. He quickly spirals into his AtE / OMGUS / Insult fest aimed at DripHydra.

Raivann / Deer – Deer’s contribution to the game centered on jousting with DripHyrdra regarding Deer’s purported scumminess. Raivann replaces in, votes Richard post claim and raises CMAR on 6/8. He claims to believe Kleedrac, but votes two posts later mainly based on DripHyrda’s comment re: emotional players and alignment. He votes Dana based on a misread, calls Mina prob-scum and FOSed SSBF. Finally, he re-votes Richard.

CMAR – Comes out in a strong attempt to “lead town” with his Contract and statements that RVS is over. Starts the bandwagon on Richard. Makes a rather strange play to garner support for being Raised from those who supported Axel. As mentioned copious times immediately unvotes Richard after claim and says he will analyze the bandwagon (which per his ISO never happened). Breadcrumbed some sort of role and basically disappeared on the 6th, the same day Klee made his case. No content at all since then but has maintained enough activity to not be replaced.

In review think CMAR and Raivann are by far the stronger candidates for lynch.

UNVOTE: Muki VOTE: CMAR. I’d certainly switch to Raivann to make sure we don’t miss a Day 1 lynch, but I feel CMAR’s lurking (coincendentally timed with the case made by Klee) contrasts seriously with his early Day posting style. This dichotomy linked with his odd play regarding a 'breadcrumb' and being Raised tip him above Raivann IMO.

Question: How many people at this point would be willing to lynch me today?

I’m not willing to lynch you today only based on your claim’s flavour and it’s potential to be Pro-Town. Your early play was bad and your play post claim hasn’t really improved. Based on flips and further developments I’ll reassess going forward.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have a Q for everyone wagoning CMAR. That is, have you done a sitewide ISO on this player especially in games like ''go play in traffic''? This is looking suspiciously like a policy lynch. How are you distinguishing scum-CMAR from town-CMAR in this situation?

Why does a player’s behaviour in this particular game warrant the need to Meta him? Scummy behaviour is scummy behaviour. Your defence of CMAR invoking tainted phrases like “policy lynch” is worth noting for the future.

I suggest we give him a list of 5 scummy scums that need killing and let him choose off that list. vezopiraka is obv on that list

Directing his kill seems like a reasonable suggestion. Who is going to provide the list of 5 scummy players?

And Percy, again, don't bother saying anything to me unless you actually prove something instead of just stating it.

Is there anything Pro-Town about this statement? It’s at best childish. If you are serious that you think that Percy is mis-representing you or outright lying in his statements regarding you why don’t you demonstrate it yourself, with “proof”?

I agree with the reasons given by others that his claim is probably not true. If he flips town, we'll know that Raivann is probably scum. If he flips scum we'll know that Raivann is probably town.

Your flip conjecture here ignores the possibility of a multi-scum environment or Raivann as a potential SK. Any reason for that?

As it was said before, if CMAR flips scum, Raivann is obvscum

Please elaborate, given the potential multi-scum elements I mentioned to Dana above.

By the way, guys, I have a NICE catch on CSL. I'll give him one more day to answer my questions before I say what it is.

Will the ‘catch’ be rendered void based on a proper response from CSL? If not why bother to hold onto the information? If so please make sure you share before deadline.

Hey, guys! We have about thirty-six hours before the deadline, and Budja is now a lynch option again. Who's willing to change back to the player they actually suspected?

If you are wanting to basically start a bandwagon from scratch why isn’t Richard a viable lynch option also? You assert yourself that his claim conflicts with Riavann’s. Also, Budja didn’t get to L-1 as Richard did. It seems more likely to re-assemble Richard’s wagon than to reassemble Budja’s with additional votes.

He's been making scummy posts. I'll get to fully analysing him tomorrow, if no one hammers. (If a hammer happens before I get to it, the player who did is scum)

So you are going to wait to analyze CMAR until the Day of deadline? If you seriously believe CMAR to be scum you should be doing it ASAP to make sure Town has sufficient time to digest your analysis.

Furthermore, threatening that anyone who hammers is scum within 48 hours of deadline is at best anti-town.

Be more specific please. Do you have any limitations? What about flavour?

BTW, someone should unvote just to be safe, but a clear wagon should remain evident. Raivann shouldn't be off the hook because of a vig claim.

The irony here is palatable. I note that you haven’t posted for two days but managed to respond to Raivann’s claim in 7 minutes. Has nothing else that’s happened since your last post been worth mentioning?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have every reason to believe that is a completely bullshit claim CMAR.

Is that all your PM says about your Bulletproof ability?

Answer carefully.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And then there's whatever magna has.

I wanted to see if he would offer up the following bit of information –

And that I WILL be informed if an attempt on my life is made.

Without it I would be 100% he was making crap up. As it stands I'm not really convinced based on the timing and other issues. And his lovely "I'm so sorry" post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh, and MagnaofIllusion, I don't think you ever explained why you found Axelrod reasonable other than his stance on raising!

I’ll revisit this issue for you since I’m guessing my explanation got eaten in the Server transition as did chunks of several of my posts. I went to the Archives to find the specific post where I raised Alex. It happened at 1:43pm on 6/4. A summary of Alex’s posts (from the Archive, again) before that point and why I felt he was reasonable at that time.

ISO 0/1 – His questions to me regarding my thoughts on Meta I thought were well reasoned for such early game contributions. I placed my early vote on SSBF using the Meta angle was a test to see SSBF's reaction.
ISO 2 – His response DripHydra’s call of Deer as obvscum (which, has been noted, changed later in the day) and requesting that Axel vote Deer mirror what my reaction would have been in his situation.
ISO 3 – I agree with his thoughts on the relative importance (or lack thereof) of a Double Voter

Remember – the game had been going on for exactly three real-life days at the point where I raised Axel. Based on that the scarcity of information inherent in the very early game period Axel’s posts were in my mind reasonable enough to warrant an early vote to Raise.

By the way, in the prequel mini, each killer had his or her own kill flavour. If the same player was targeted twice, both flavours would show up. So since Raivann was only hacked to pieces (as opposed to, say, "hacked to pieces and disemboweled"), he was only targeted once.

Given that you are basing some of your speculation on flavour I want to ask you (or anyone else familiar with the source material the following questions) –

1. Does poisoning seem likely as a Greyjoy kill flavour? Axel has indicated it is not but I wanted other input.
2. Does a ‘faked’ suicide seem likely as a Greyjoy kill flavour?

I think it improbable that the ‘hacked to death’ flavour is Greyjoy for obvious reasons.

I’ve got a theory myself that would explain why the fake-claimed Vig was killed and Budja showed up dead in the manner he did, but having a strong handle on likely flavour would be a pre-requisite to making sure it made sense.

@Richard: You're confirmed townie. Congrats. You're not getting lynched. Now how about you help us find scum?

QFT. The unfortunate loss of Ser Loras has confirmed you as much as is realistically possible. You need to actively be contributing to hunting today.

VI is his town meta (although I can't provide links sorry).

I’m inclined to agree that Vezo much better Vig target than lynch target. I have one question for you LMP – what is Vezo’s scum meta?

@Dana – Given the ample review your play has gotten today I want to highlight a response you made to me yesterday.

Perhaps not from your view, but I refuse to let Percy rule the town and just honor any baseless accusations he may make with a full-blown defense. Nobody should believe him anyway if he gives no proof, so there's really no reason to take the time to disprove anything he says. Besides, it would be really hard to simply disprove his assertion that I am scum, probably impossible, since there's nothing to disprove.

First you refuse to respond to Percy’s accusations (Day 1) as you find them baseless. Do you think it is Pro-Town to simply disengage from what you perceive as a scummy attack as opposed to demonstrating why the attack is flawed and scummy? Lastly I didn’t ask you to disprove you were scum. I asked you to highlight how Percy was mis-repping or lying about you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Prod pre-received. Work and Marathon Games have really sapped my ability to do a re-read today.

I'll regroup this weekend and try to have my thoughts coordinated by Tuesday.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from my 4th of July Family activities …

@LynchMe – If you have answered my question regarding Vezo and Meta at 955 please disregard the following –

You state that Vezo is playing to his Town meta. Does he have a scum meta? If not how can you justify ruling out Vezo’s quite frankly horrible play based on an incomplete meta set?

Even though dana's links to Raivann may be more suspicious than SSBF's, SSBF looks really scummy. If he isn't Raivann's scumbuddy then he could easily be from the other scumgroup.

Please elaborate on how SSBF could rationally be from an opposing faction yet have scummy links to Raivann. I don’t see how opposing scum forces could realistically be defending each other.

We're working on Percy case but it probs won't be up for a few days.

I understand with the holidays how this might be delayed. I’m very curious to see what you come up with. Also, why aren’t you posting your Town / Scum lists as you did Day 1? Is that a tool you traditionally use early in the game but abandon later?

Mina makes some pretty solid points against Drippereth, which I really do like. It helps establish a connection between both of them.

Can you clarify what sort of connection you mean regarding DripHydra and Mina? I’m confused as to whether you think Mina is bussing Drip or if you mean something else.

Why I voted SSBF and HOS'd dana? dana has done nothing but talk useless crap, but is at least trying to go the other direction. SSBF is MUCH MUCH worse.

Really? Today SSBF posted a PBP case on Vezo and has contributed in his own defence and about other players posts. Dana has basically complained that the case on her is weak. No scum-hunting that I can see (to page 42, anyway). This and your back-peddling re: Benmage at 1038 and 1041 makes Mina’s case against you seem even stronger.

Explain to me how it WOULD have hurt us to not lynch Raivann D1 even if he had not been NK'd. What I was saying was just that we could lynch him tomorrow.

If we didn’t lynch him Day 1 due to his claim and he claims a kill that appears reasonable for a Vig why would we lynch him later? The harm is that we ended up lynching a Town PR in place of Mafia.

This takes me up to page 43. I’ll try to add more tonight but if not tomorrow I’ll have to finish my catch-up.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Rejoining the thread in progress at the top of 43.

Welcome diddin.

Count me in as one of those CSL stabbers. His VT claim at L-10 (I think) screams horrible scum fake claim. Taking a shot at a potential scum PR is worthwhile, IMO.

Benmage’s play Day 2 really seems more and more out of character for him from my personal experience. Posts like 1802 really don’t scream “I’m Town”.

LynchMePls is scum. He hops on the RichardGHP wagon shortly after 2 different posts saying he believes RichardGHP's claim. He hops on the Raivann wagon at the very tail end when it was almost certain Raivann was going to be the lynch and then goes back to RichardGHP as fast as possible (with his very next post).

LynchMePls also works with Drippereth to fight the Raivann wagon directly here. In fact, rereading LMP's ISO with regards to Drippereth is very interesting overall. I recommend it to everyone.

You’ve already previously indicated you think Percy and DripHydra were buddying scum at your ISO 8 and infer that SSBF also is a scum partner to Drip at ISO 10. At ISO 21 you apparently reverse course on Percy being a DripHydra scum-partner and praise Percy’s case as something you would support Drip’s lynch based on. You haven’t mentioned LynchMe before this post at all. You’ve stated on multiple occasions that you suspect Drip to be scum. Why didn’t you vote Drip based on your longstanding suspicion based on this paring? Especially given the suspicion his slot has drawn from multiple other sources.

@Mina re: 1115

– Did you read any other games with Raivann in your meta research? Also, since we had an unexpected break I’m hopeful you had sufficient chance to do you full-length research.

VOTE: dana
Back to Day 1 I’ve prodded dana to actively scum-hunt those he found scummy as opposed to be always on the defense. He hasn’t done that and the defenses get worse and worse as the Day goes on. For example -

Axel’s 1057 concisely summarizes for Dana why so many players find her suspicious and are voting for her. Dana’s response at 1063is akin to the ostrich sticking his head in the sand.

After Raivann’s fake-claim as a normally operating Vig and CMAR’s flip showing limits to his BP status I’m inclined to think Dana’s claim is false. Every other Town Power so far has been limited or dependant. Dana’s ‘choice’ of Jailkeeping Drip on Night 1 reads to me like a last ditch effort at role-fishing as he goes down.

[MagnaofIllusion]

ATTENTION UNSIGHT –

You seem perfectly willing to ignore questions directly put to you. While you are addressing whatever open questions LMP has for you also please comment and answer regarding the following –

You’ve already previously indicated you think Percy and DripHydra were buddying scum at your ISO 8 and infer that SSBF also is a scum partner to Drip at ISO 10. At ISO 21 you apparently reverse course on Percy being a DripHydra scum-partner and praise Percy’s case as something you would support Drip’s lynch based on. You haven’t mentioned LynchMe before this post at all. You’ve stated on multiple occasions that you suspect Drip to be scum. Why didn’t you vote Drip based on your longstanding suspicion based on this paring? Especially given the suspicion his slot has drawn from multiple other sources.

On to other issues -

That doesnt even make sense...If you thought CSL is a mafia PR, wouldnt you prefer he be dead?

You specifically go out of your way here to not answer the question presented to you.

1. Why were you surprised at the Wounding’s “weak effects” when they were clearly presented in the Mod’s post?
2. Why ask the second question, as it’s anything but rhetorical. Of course people would want a Scum PR dead. Why does suspicion of CSL as a potential Mafia PR eliminate the possibility that dana is a potential Mafia PR? Isn’t it a wise move by Town to potentially neuter a second scum PR while lynching another?

I didn't stab CSL... I believed his claim. Nor dana, cause he should be lynched.

Ok, who did you stab then?

Your use of my choice of Drippereth as an argument against me is poor. He is obviously from my posts the player I consider most town, so I would want to protect him. If I was scum, I would have a fakeclaim of Tulley, Jailkeeper, and would have to give someone's name, so I would give the name of the player whom I had called a townie the most, which is the same person. So either way, I would say the same thing. How does saying it make me scummier?

Stating that I think you are role-fishing with your choice of DripHydra isn’t an argument it’s an observation. And everything after the first sentence is a large, pointless WIFOM exercise. I’m not using it as ‘further’ evidence against you … the evidence against you has been stated repeated in the thread and repeatedly hand-waved by you.

If anything my observation might strengthen a Town read on DripHydra for me based on what I see as your rolefishing. Assuming of course you are scum as I suspect.

[MagnaofIllusion]

1. What makes you think i was surprised?

After reviewing your original post I’ll say surprised is not the correct word. You wrote -

I stabbed CSL,he claimed VT. I was just bummed when i saw the stabs weak effects, it would have been a cool mechanic as a instant-kill

MOD specifically stated THE EXACT effects in his post. Why even post that you were bummed and that it would be a cool instant-kill mechanic? It obviously wasn’t.

Your statement adds nothing to the game and is just active-lurking filler.

2. WTF

Yours and xvarts questions look like questions asked for the sake of asking questions.

Your inability to answer simply stated questions looks like scum too afraid to they will out themselves. Seriously … repeatedly dodging direct questions is scummy.

FOS – Rifka

[MagnaofIllusion]

Id be interested in hearing your argument why a person could get stabbed 10-20 times and only lose his ability\vote for the day. It looked like a free lynch until i kept reading.

This makes me laugh. You are arguing that the Mob Action doesn’t make sense when it was made abundantly clear HERE. Including oversize letters from the Mod saying “Read this very closely”. And you would have to have read it before the thread was reopened.

So you are basically griping at the Mod because you don’t like how it turned out. Again, a fluff statement for active lurking.

Also let’s take note of the following –

The wounded player will also lose any powers they may have for the rest of the game.

So you can’t have read very closely at all anyway. But when you are not bothering to scum-hunt and just wanting to coast by I guess paying attention isn’t that important.

I think I full re-read on you will be useful going forward.

I'm not ignoring anyone. I just had the unfortunate timing to be making my catchup post(s) at the exact time the thread was being locked for the event.

The fact that you were making a catch-up post when the thread was locked for the Mob event is completely irrelevant. Mod reopened the thread at post 1129. I asked you the question originally at 1136. You posted several times (1150,1151, 1154) between then and 1160 where I re-asked the question.

So you’ve given a completely incorrect answer that if you bothered to actually fact check on you would have known was wrong.

The long answer is that I prefer lynches that provide stronger reflection. Given more than one suspect, I prefer to lynch the one that yields the most information.

And yet you don’t explain how lynching LMP will provide more information than a DripHydra lynch. Especially since you’ve linked Drip to several players but LMP only to Drip.

Looks more like a distancing tactic. You repeatedly mention your suspicions of Drip but never move at all to act on them. Scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey magna, i didnt choose to write all that fluff posting. You did, by asking me about it. I think your just trying to piss me off honestly, as it looks like again, no reading comprehension of what i was saying

Sad. I’m assuming by your continual (and incorrect) off-topic responses everything I’ve pointed out recently is correct. For you to accuse anyone of lack of reading comprehension is as they say -- tech.

1. The post in question that I am attacking 1135 is in NO WAY a response to me. You posted it. In response to the event. So you’ve made a Two in One classic here – blaming others for your active lurking and strawmanning the question.
2. Thanks for agreeing “I didn’t choose to write all that fluff posting” that all you are doing is throwing up fluff. I'm glad you are honest about your active lurking and total lack of content contribution.

Later today I’ll go over Rifka’s ISO. If for some reason we as a group are unwilling to lynch dana based on here replace out I’m beginning to think Rifka is a great alternative.

@ Richard re 1201

- Horrible post. Do you think it is helpful to Town to sit on your hands and say “blah blah blah nothing to say until dana dies”? There are obviously more scum than just her out there.

@DripHydra

– what happened to that grand Percy case? Was that coming from the Elli head?

[MagnaofIllusion]

The question I have Vezo is ... Why in the hell would you claim?

Dear god it's like someone called for a mass-claim that only certain players can see ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

You answer your first sentence with your second sentence. I believe we have two scum teams but I don't believe all my suspects are on the same one. I can see Dana and LMP being on a team with Raivann and I can see SSBF and MacCavityLock being on a team. I can see Drip being with SSBF or Raivann.

Then exactly how does a LMP lynch provide more information than a Drip lynch? You just have stated that you can see Drip as being linked to either SSBF (and by extension MLock) or to Raivann (and by extension Dana and / or LMP). And why if you are linking dana and LMP are you not voting for dana which is a viable lynch at this stage?

I don’t see any rational argument for why you keep dancing away from Drip as the best source of information based on the links you posted above. Are you intimidated by Drip and afraid to challenge them?

What question did I miss?

WHO DID YOU STAB?

[MagnaofIllusion]

You do realize that my first post with the throne was in RVS.

Did you seriously just try to say that your comment about being next-in-line doesn't matter because it is in RVS?

My mind boggles.

RVS actions are just as valid as any other actions (especially when it's posting and not votes) when it comes to potential slips.

Despite your VI-style presentation this is the sort of argument I would expect the see from scum flailing.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MagnaofIllusion

: You say Benmage is playing out of character. What kind of character does he usually have? Links?

Take a look at the following game KOL Mafia. It is a large theme game like this one. Benmage was Town. Read his ISO. There is much more depth to his comments and observations in that game than in this one. Especially in Day 2 here.

Also take note of his professed feelings about lurking and Mafia correlation in KOL Mafia. Compare it with his play here Day 2, especially his comments regarding "how long can I get away with active lurking".

[MagnaofIllusion]

I did not stab CSL.

Same question I asked Benmage on the subject (which was never answered) – who did you stab?

I'm happy with a Dana lynch. I'll won't put him at L-1 just yet, I'd like to ask our Kinetic replacement a question first.

He’s answered your question and it’s just over 2 real-life days til deadline. Any reason you still are not committing to the lynch if you are “happy” with it?

He is a claimed powerrole, and if he is town, he might easily eat a NK(better than a mislynch). Even if he isn't town, we have strong reason to believe there are more than one scumteam so he might eat a NK anyway, as he is the only outed PR.

Either way, although I'm uneasy about I doubt it, I agree with him that I'd rather leave dana alive to eat a nightkill. Hey, scum! The protown jailkeeper just revealed. Even better, if you're being sincere about your opinions in the thread, at least 75% of you think dana is scum. And if you're a Greyjoy and dana isn't one of your buddies...well, don't you want the Lannister roleblocker flip to distract everyone from looking for Raivann's buddies? Of course, it's probably too late for this plan to work, since everyone in the game has vocally declared how much they want to lynch him.

I am very uneasy with this line of thinking for two reasons.

1. You are relying on Scum (regardless of whatever hypothetical faction) to do Town’s job in getting rid of a player that a good number of the playerbase find scummy. That strikes me as not the best way to handle things for Town.
2. Dana survives the Night. Now what? Are we going to end up repeating the arguments and voting of today with a heaping topping of WIFOM to boot?

If either of you don’t find dana scummy that’s fine. Commit to that position. This tactic borders on a position that embodies fence-sitting.

What exactly is this there for but to eat space? You propose a plan to direct scum nightkill, then explain why that wouldnt work in the same breath.

How is this post not further indication of your active lurking? List of player you find scummy with support ASAP. Popping in to only question others without committing to a position on who is scummy isn’t scum-hunting.

If you want dana lynched, and he's the leading wagon...why the hell aren't ya voting him?

That post was made 8 days before the deadline and would have put dana at L-1 (IIRC). I have no interest in seeing the day cut short when there's plenty to talk about.

It’s now 2 days til deadline. Is your suggestion that you support a dana lynch just fence-sitting since your vote is not on him?

I will be going on my regular weekend LA so I’m going to summarize my list of the players I find the most likely, IMO, to be scum.

Dana
CSL
Unsight
Rifka

@MOD – I’ll be LA starting today at 4pm EDT until Monday for my regular weekend family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Step Forward.

I would like to know benmage or magnaofillusion alignments personally

The feeling is mutual because I’d really like to have yours investigated also. Funny how my pressure against you at the end of the Day yields this gem. Still not scum-hunting for you, but at this point that’s to be expected.

@Benmage and Axel

– If you both are so worried about players who are viewed as Pro-Town why are you not also suggesting Mina be the Worship investigation target?

This would in my book yield Rich, Thor, Percyx2, Me. As town, which is pretty damn powerful.

You are including Rich who you earlier basically called a waste in your Power group? Funny, just because you have started actually providing content please don’t assume everyone thinks you are Town. Your Day 1 and most of Day 2 was horrible.

Guys, I'll become more active on my own time and terms. Bugging me about it will get you nowhere and only waste time.

Good to know as someone who is cleared you will continue to lurk and not contribute.

The first is that Baltar is actually trying to bank on scum actions which is never a good sign.

Is this analysis reserved for just Baltar? Because I don’t recall you calling out Mina Day 2 when she make comments along the same lines asking for dana to be Nightkilled by scum and not lynched.

And don’t think I’ve forgotten your little rant at the end of Day 2. The fact that you had to be strong-armed into voting dana makes me think you might just be Lannister scum. I’ll get to that later. But for now …

VOTE: Unsight

And now that Locke has said what he's said I think it becomes even more an issue.

Actually Locke’s information more than likely makes Percy a bad worship choice if Locke already can provide evidence he is scum.

Role Claim: Dayvig

My intent is to kill vezok unless town can explain to me a better kill option. My kill does not end the day, so basically town will get a free flip and a free investigation today. When I decide who to kill I will make the usual claim and final suspicions requests prior to vigging them.

Now that you’ve outed your role a Daykill (assuming limited from the way you have presented) is a must. Vezo makes a good target but wait to see what develops. We have plenty of time today. In light of the Worship it may be prudent to see who is getting revealed at the end of Day and then deciding what way to go with your VIg.

@Mina

- Care to comment on why you were so passionate about dana escaping the lynch yesterday? I like your play thus far on most every issue but that one.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So, reveal time. I'm Littlefinger. My information tells me a player's role name. I claimed very vaguely because wanted to see if Percy found it necessary to safeclaim, which I suspected he almost certainly would. I was warned that some characters can deceive me, which makes sense with both godfathers dead.

Percy is not Melisandre. Percy is Asha Greyjoy.

See this is why I thought beating around the bush is pointless regarding Percy. I see the logic in using it to check diddin but was there any chance Percy wasn’t going to safe-claim given that we know from Raivann’s flip Greyjoy’s are scum.

Thor, shoot Percy. If Locke is lying, we string him up immediately.

QFT. And if Percy does indeed flip Greyjoy it mostly confirms Locke and partially confirms you.

I like being a scum killing vig, so yeah, I'm up for this.

Daykill: Percy

Of course as I’m posting you make the hit.

Regarding the Kingsguard

– Can someone still alive perhaps summarize the discussions held there? If there is information to be gleaned from that QT I’d like it to be as public as possible. In particular I’d like to see what Percy had to say if he does flip Greyjoy.

@MOD

– I think you missed my vote for Unsight in 1466

[MagnaofIllusion]

EWBOP

- Apparently I missed Mina's offer to summarize the Kingsguard post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna: if I let on to Percy straight away that I knew he was Asha, it still gives him potential to try and wiggle round it. Asha and Theon aren't exactly friendly at the best of times and I bet he could have dragged this out a lot longer by trying to adapt to the claim - especially as he would have known I had a name and not a guilty.

I understand what you are saying and will defer to your flavour knowledge. I have none so from my perspective I expected anyone with the name Greyjoy / Lannister to be scum. If anything I would have approached diddin first and then laid out Percy after seeing how diddin responded. Same expect result, I know.

Caught you stalking this thread and yet you appear to be strategically avoiding commenting on Percy's flip for now. Diescumdie.

I was under the impression that those listed at the bottom are those viewing the entire Theme Park, not just this thread. Test for yourself. Load up a thread, look at those listed as viewing, and go back to Theme Park and look at the list. I think you will find that they are the same if you do it fast enough.

That all said I know for a fact that SSBF is actively involved in another Theme Park ongoing game. So attack him for not posting but don’t use incorrect data to support it.

unvote
Vote SSBF
I got saved by a miracle. Yay for me.

Insert facepalm pic here.

Thor just posted that SSBF was at L-3. The WORST POSSIBLE THING TO DO, even if SSBF is scum, is to end the day before our Worship vote. And that’s just what it looks like you are doing without considering the consequences.

Also, Percy's flip was surprising. I had him pegged as town. Whoever shot him, good job!

Are you not bothering to even read the rest of the thread? Are you actively trying to catch Vezo in the VI of the Year awards?

@Mina

– Given your absolute refusal to see dana as scum why should we not be considering you as the theorized Lannister on the Kingsguard?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Wait can we switch candles?

MOD

??

For those who didn't bother to read the Mod's posts

You may now vote for he or she whom shall be revealed at the end of the day. You may do so by typing Light a candle for : Eddard Stark. Douse candle can be used.

Note that you can Douse candles, which appears to be the equivalent to unvoting.

I can't really say the whole LARGE CAP POSTING in panic when the answer was plain in the original post makes me confident that you are really paying close attention Ben.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I appreciate the unnecessary sarcasm Magna, but douse almost seems like "no lynch" rather than unvote, but you are probably right.

I don’t think the sarcasm was unnecessary. You’ve made several statements today along the lines that your experience and thoughts were superior to other players’. I think the implication of douse candle (indicating snuffing a previously lit candle) was crystal clear. Your reaction struck me as not what I would expect from Town who wanted to be a leading voice in steering the Town.

We'll worry about it during massclaim (in which case a doc gives us a confirmed not-Greyjoy or jailkeeper/RB gives us a potential Greyjoy).

Why would a Jailkeeper / RB give us a potential Greyjoy? If the working theory (which I support, BTW) is that the Greyjoy N1 kill was blocked it makes ZERO sense for that person creating the block to be a Greyjoy. I’d say in either case (Doc or Blocker) we have a confirmed not-Greyjoy.

Also regarding your discussion that you aren’t a Lannister due to your danakillsu interactions – it’s HUGE amounts of WIFOM. Following your logic anyone who refused to wagon Raivann in favor of other candidates should be cleared of being Greyjoy because that’s just not the behaviour of someone who knew Raivann would flip scum. Neither scenario seems logically sound in my mind.

If you think for certain that there was a Lannister on the Kingsguard (and given that we had two Greyjoy’s I’m certainly not ruling out the possibility) you’ve basically set yourself up in a 1 v 1 with Cow. With Cow a likely scan today I'm not sure how I feel about that.

I kind of disagree with your perspective on vezo in the sense that having a confirmed town VI is actually a very bad thing for scum. They can't leave the person alive until LYLO and forcing their hand to kill a VI potentially saves a more useful person for later in the game. tl;dr cutting down on mislynches is a good thing.

I’m going to disagree here completely with your assessment that having a confirmed Town VI is bad for scum. His confirmation means he will not be mis-lynched but Vezo (as an example of a classic VI, no offense) hasn’t shown any indication that he will be making good decisions as the game progresses. If it comes down to a LYLO situation scum will most probably take a Confirmed VI over a player (confirmed or not) who has shown good instincts during the game, IMO.

I want him to replace out or I want him dead. I see no value in clearing him if he's staying in his slot.

In a follow-up to the above, QFT.

Light a candle for : hasdgfas

Establishing another confirmed Town from a slot I consider strong (to join Locke) in my opinion the best use of the Worship scan. I’d also be happy seeing Mina (for similar reasons to Cow), Unsight or Rifka (two of my current suspicions) investigated.

On my to-do list – review both Unsight and Rifka’s suspicions and suggestions for potential Lannister / Greyjoy links.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Actually, i was curious to see if magnaofillusion would actually follow up on that suspicion of me, but didnt make the slightest effort to do so. Reading his ISO, he seems to have an entirely reactionary playing, sharply making points on posts throughout the game, but never seeming to actually initiate attacks(my perception anyway) difficult player for me getting a read on... Plus, being confirmed=sit back and have a lemonade in the shade as far as defending goes

It’s funny that I’m the reactionary player. Anyone who wants to test this read my ISO versus Rifka and judge for yourself who is passive between the two of us.

I’m ask you Rifka – did you not read my post regarding why I voted for Cow as opposed to you in the Light a Candle process?

Now on to review of Unsight and Rifka’s interactions / suspicions like I’ve promised –

Large wall of text incoming … you have been warned.

Flipped Lannisters – dana and I doubt it
Flipped Greyjoys – Raivann and Percy

Unsight –

unvote. vote: SSBF

Richard needs to explain why he would even mention a policy lynch despite his avid disliking of them as of 3 months ago. SSBF probably needs to die.

This is in response to SSBF calling for Drip to use evidence in suspicions. I’m including SSBF in this summary as he appears to be the lynch in most people’s minds for today and his flip may give additional scum links / interactions.

SSBF's extreme reaction to Eliball's post is another matter. Showing that someone is playing differently than their norm can be very relevant and calling that post irrelevant before Richard even answers to it can have many meanings... many scummy ones. Also, if you look at SSBF's ISO, you'll see that post is one of the most aggressive posts in there. That link really rubbed him the wrong way. He was either distancing Eliball or protecting Richard.

More early attack on SSBF. We know in hindsight he wasn’t distancing DripHydra and protecting Town seems unlikely.

In ISO 4 chastizes dana to “stop pretending to be a newbie”.

danakillsu has played in about 25+ games on mafiascum.net, has a gut read of scum on someone, but says he's not voting that person because he has no experience with said player instead of something definitive like "this wagon is better" or "I don't see the case on him." I have no experience with danakillsu but I can easily go find a couple of his 20-something games and get experience with him because I'm not lazy in my scum hunting. Also, it was a lame way to acknowledge the wagon without boarding it or resisting it. Laundering is my new favorite word these days.

In ISO 7 agrees with Percy’s opinion on Raivann but finds Percy somewhat selective in his targeting (mentioning Cow, Drip, Ben and himself as those not questioned).

ISO 8 – Says Percy and Drip were buddying.

ISO 15 – Suggests that Percy has aseked a loaded question and finds it scummy.

SSBF is still scummy and still worth lynching. VOTE: SSBF

The Vezo case has merit. Not sure if Vezo is scum, but his play is anti-town and hard for me to read.

Percy's Drippereth case deserves a full read by everyone. It's very good and I would support a Drippereth lynch based on it (mostly because it's something I'd have done if I had more time and someone else hadn't already done it).

I'll reread dana in light of the night's flips in the next day or two.

Votes SSBF again Day 2 (and held it there the entirety of Day 1, avoiding all the wagons). Unsight’s strong support of Percy’s Drip case, when previously they had been ignoring / buddying each other, seems like an odd turn-around.

ISO 22 – Attacks LMP as scum for positions on various Day 1 wagons and unvotes SSBF. Attempts to forge links between Raivann, LMP and Drip (which we know now are false).

Life is good as I have free time again. Let me look at the dana wagon...

Percy - Percy's note that danakillsu was attempting to derail the Raivann wagon the most is spot-on. Drippereth is a close second with LMP coming in third.
Thor665 - Basically ditto's Percy.
Mikujin - Also ditto's Percy.
Axelrod - Similar to Percy's case but also points out flippage on RichardGHP (similar to LynchMePls actually).
RichardGHP - Reasonless vote. I have this theory that scum hunting ceases the moment someone becomes obv town...
xvart - xvart is great. He spotted what almost looks like a scumslip by danakillsu's ISO 15.
LynchMePls - This is the guy who raised danakillsu in his first post. Votes to "get some team cohesion going" but has been spending his time making SSBF and CSL cases. Can someone say "BUS BUS BUS BUS BUS!"
Vezokpiraka - No reasoning? Why is Vezo voting dana?
Benmage - Again no reasoning. Why is Benmage voting dana?
CSL - Votes to see if he's telling the truth about his claim. What?

It's really easy to see the people actually putting a case forward versus the blatant wagon-ers especially toward the end.

I will support a danakillsu lynch, but not until the last 3 people explain what they're doing and why. Also, LMP is still scum..

Supports the lynch without voting for it. In a turn-around form ISO 22 now sees LMP as bussing dana.

I believe we have two scum teams but I don't believe all my suspects are on the same one. I can see Dana and LMP being on a team with Raivann and I can see SSBF and MacCavityLock being on a team. I can see Drip being with SSBF or Raivann.

ISO 30 also begins my questioning of Unsight at the end of Day 2.

Votes dana in 33 after being called out by several players. For context this is the 11th vote on dana and right before deadline.

In conclusion I’m not sure that I have any better a feel for Unsight as either scum-team. He made zero interactions with Raivann Day 1 and did threw some mild accusations towards Percy without following up on them at all. Day 1 Unsight also made some early accusations against dana that let nowhere. Day 2 changes opinion on Percy 180 degrees and has to be dragged kicking in screaming to the dana wagon. I could see Unsight as either alignment.

Rifka –

Vote:Deer


Right now im considering raising xvart or drippereth.

RVS vote for Raivann’s slot. Note the raising point for later in the summary.

Has a slight dust-up with Benmage in ISOs 2-4 over Ben’s ‘obstructionist’ attitude.

Sure. I see two ways to proceed with this double vote-either give it to a town read, or give it to a scummy player to try to ''nk magnet'' him\her. Ill play it face value and thus go with one of these townish players.

Her stated logic that she will use for raising (no other ISO mentions until 18).

Raise Drippereth wynaut?

Starts some questioning of SSBF in ISO 11. I’m including this for SSBF as I did with Unsight.

As to your other Q, half the game is scum right now. I like SSBF and deer particularly. Deer hasnt done anything to even justify moving the vote. As for being willing to hammer richard at the time, ill suffice myself with referring his contradiction of calling out CMAR then using even earlier evidence to justify a vote.

Hmm raivann there are no benefits from a player getting a one-shot vig?

Gotta say i think thats a weak opening post...maybe i unvoted deer too soon?

Note that Rifka’s vote is inactive at this point, yet no re-vote for Raivann.

unraise raise percy In order to comply with my own raising logic

Quite out of the blue raise of Percy. For the record this puts Percy at 9 votes of the required 14 to raise. Nothing particularly wrong with having Percy as a Town read (and ISO 1 states that would be the raise qualification), but the fact that Percy isn’t mentioned or referenced significantly before this point strikes me knowing Percy’s flip.

Standing by for hammer duty I prefer raivann lynch. He was the original scum deer and still is

Once again states a preference for a Raivann lynch without voting for him.

In ISO 29 casts some says the I Doubt It’s case on Benmage was ‘very unprofessional’.

on the drippy topic, (DGB) thinks raivan is town because im bussing scum(yet doesnt want to lynch the bussed scum? hmmm) and elli doesnt seem to want raivan lynch\push me as scum(or atleast, didnt say anything of relevance in the last post) combined with drippy pushing deer early then forgetting about it later, makes me see drippy-raivan connection

In hindsight, of course, this was a false link.

Finally votes Raivann in ISO 31. In time context Raivann / Budja / CMAR all have 5 votes prior to this vote.

Unvotes Raivann in ISO 34, post claim of Vig. Pushes for Richard based on the conflicting claim with Raivann.

Advocates that SSBF should be Raivann’s ‘Vig’ target in ISO 43 and 44.

This almost looks like the ''you caught me for the wrong reasons rant'' tell.

Ill put down a vote:SSBF as per earlier reasons

Very interesting statement on Day 2 regarding dana before his Lannister flip.
Rifka and I get into our debate regarding the Mob action in ISO 54 – 59.

I can only speak for myself, but im leaning scum on 3 of those now(csl im a little iffy on) so why would i or anyone that felt the same way attack those cases? If i want SSBF lynched over dana but i still think dana is scum, it doesnt really make sense to try to demolish a dana case.

card flip time Unvote Vote Danakillsu

After only the small peep regarding dana at 49 Rifka states dana is scum. In context this is the hammer vote.

This ends Day 2.

In conclusion I’d have to say that I’m leaning that Rifka is much more likely a Lannister than a Greyjoy. She voted for Raivann when things could have gone in any direction with him, CMAR and Budja. The Lannister interactions have been minimal. Rifka hammered dana despite not once questioning him or expressing anything significant in terms of a scum-read on dana. Interestingly also called I Doubt it’s case weak on Benmage but never attacked him for it, while he attacked SSBF for responding in place of Ben.

Based on these two summaries I’m going to keep my vote with Unsight for the moment.

[MagnaofIllusion]

But I'm not sure what you mean by that last part. That you see a scum motivation for pushing for a Cow scan or putting myself in a 1 v 1 with him?

I don’t like it because it just because there isn’t a non-WIFOM scum motivation for you to express your theory of a Lannister on the Kingsguard and to push so hard for Cow. Your theory makes sense I think. If Cow does scan as Town that leaves you as the only “unaccounted for” Kingsguard member. The heavy WIFOM involved with whether you would push for Cow’s investigation to ‘clear yourself’ is something I would not put past a good player using to their advantage. All this said I still feel you are Town but I’m not going to outright dismiss that little bit of gnawing doubt in the back of my mind that this scenario creates.

My only alignment is Town (or Innocent as my role pm puts it) so your vote on me is catching no scum.

What is the purpose of this statement? Should we just take your word for it? And why go out of the way to claim Innocent when you have exactly 1 vote on you (at the time you made this post)?

BULLSHIT. Deers first post was scummy as hell, your going beyond scumhunting here and saying i couldnt have accurately gotten a scumread off him, for that megatell post. This was not a RVS vote

Hard as hell to tell what that vote was when it consists solely of “Vote: Deer” and nothing else.

That IS a scumtell, and i wasnt the only one to point it out. What are you saying here, that it wasnt?

The point is that it potentially inadvertently betrays inside knowledge. Only a Greyjoy or a Lannister would have reason to suspect (before dana’s flip) that dana was being strung up for incorrect linking logic. I was sure he’d flip Greyjoy based on the whole Raivann / Budja posting dana had done.

If others also made similar statements please point them out because I missed them.

Arya also is the only character that interacts with Jaquen. Considering Jaquen was a HIRED assassin, I wouldn't be surprised if Arya was the one who hired him.

SSBF

– I’d like you to directly comment on this statement by diddin. Did you have any ability to influence Kleedrac / Budja?

REGARDING SSBF’S CLAIM –

Has Town gone completely stupid? Thor and Locke are the only ones I see thinking clearly on this issue.

SSBF has claimed the “Hacked to Pieces” flavour. Let’s examine the history of that flavour’s kills.

1. Killed Greyjoy scum Raivann who claimed Vig.
2. Killed Lannister scum I Doubt It.

The flavour is obviously not scum aligned with either faction.

People fake-claiming Vig don’t survive long in this game. If SSBF is fake-claiming possession of the flavour I have no doubt he will be hacked to pieces tonight. If he is properly claiming the flavour does it matter if he is SK or Vig right now? If he makes a kill that isn’t in the Innocents’ best interest (Locke or Thor for example) we can string him up. And as it gets closer to endgame he can always be lynched then also.

I would suggest that SSBF would be well served in killing Vezo tonight if he is really the Vig / SK.

Unvote, Vote: Unsight

I like where this vote is but could you provide some reasons as to why made it?

Any reason in particular you're seeming to trust SSBF's hokey claim, and voting Unsight instead? Also looking forward to what I bolded. Hope it means we get to do lunch.

vote SSBF

Has brings up a good point, and at this time I can't deny how scummy SSBF has been. Vote: SSBF

These are HORRIBLE votes for the reasons I outlined above. I’ve already given my review of Rifka (another bad SSBF vote) and Ben gets an initial pass since he’s more or less cleared as non-SK scum.

I guess I have two more players to dig into …

[MagnaofIllusion]

I would have to reread that area, but in reference to the post i quoted, the scumtell is that a scum gets upset for being run up ''for the wrong reasons'', such as a false link to a dead mafia of another alignment. This scumtell can be applied without the third party observer(me) knowing the link is false, because i can see dana strongly believes its false.

Are you saying that dana couldn’t strongly argue against a link between himself and Raivann if it had been true? Because that’s a necessary requirement for you to identify that dana was being voted for the ‘wrong reasons’ without having inside knowledge.

I don't like how convenient SSBF's claim seems to be - and I don't know how simple the Town/Innocent would be to make, but it's more null than anything. It could just as easily be townie mistake as it could be a scum/SK one. The fact that several others have mentioned that the flavor for his claim doesn't seem to fit certainly doesn't make me think better of him.

The reason I called Macavitar too trusting is because he calls SSBF out for "probably" being an SK, then wants to see what he can do for directing SSBF's kills. Assuming SSBF is the SK, what incentive is there for him to listen to such ideas? He still doesn't win, because we'll likely lynch him before LYLO, so why not just kill whomever he wants? If he's the SK, why do we let him live to kill someone else (likely a townie), rather than lynch him now to stem the problem at its roots? Just seems counterproductive. That's why I don't like Macavitar's suggestion/said he was too trusting of SSBF.

Regardless of whether Mac (or anyone else) buys SSBF’s claim or not you can’t show me a Pro-Town reason to lynch SSBF today.

1. If he’s fake-claiming scum he’s a walking dead man as shown historically by Raivann’s death.
2. If he’s properly claiming flavour he’s already done more for Town (2 dead Mafians versus 1 lynched Mafian) than Town has, regardless of whether he is SK or Vig.
3. If his flavour makes a bad NK we can lynch him the next day.
4. SSBF can potentially be handled in a variety of other ways, including tracking / scanning.

To anyone questioning SSBF’s claims please explain the following – How does I Doubt It’s death (when viewed through SSBF’s interactions with him Day 1) not make total sense to be coming from SSBF?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Are you saying that dana couldn’t strongly argue against a link between himself and Raivann if it had been true? Because that’s a necessary requirement for you to identify that dana was being voted for the ‘wrong reasons’ without having inside knowledge.

Before we go any further here, are you or are you not familiar with this tell?

Don't dodge the question - are you asserting that dana couldn't strongly argue against a link that was in fact true?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Not at all. Now are you really pretending you dont realize that scum get upset sometimes when fingered specifically for something that in hindsight, couldnt really implicate them?

How can i differentiate between scum upset at facing a false link and a scum arguing against a real link? Cause i can read, and more importantly analyze. Ive seen this tell before, and i recognized it in danas behavior here. You realize your argument that a townie couldnt do that is going to be utterly repudiated the moment i flip town, right?

I’ve never said what you are asserting in the first part. In particular I find scum to get animated in general when fingered as such in a way that they can’t refute easily. Being accused for ‘wrong reasons’ certainly falls into that.

Amazing how superior your reading and analyzing skills are to most ever other player. Because the only other player who asserted that dana was upset at being caught specifically for the ‘wrong reasons’ was Percy. He, of course, had inside information.
I’ve never said that it was impossible for Town to make that assessment. What I am saying is that it is much more likely an assessment to come from scum.

1. If you recognized this behaviour as scummy by dana why didn’t you vote for / pursue dana Day 2? You didn’t, and only hammered at deadline when it was obvious Percy could use his second vote to hammer. Late bussing perhaps?
2. Nice AtE in the last section about you being ‘right’ when you flip Town.

Thanks for ignoring me and calling me stupid.

First off you are correct … I missed including you. But from my standpoint you aren’t confirmed as are Locke and Thor (as much as anyone can be in a multi-scum environment).

I’m coming around though … especially in light of Muki’s play today that you have been harping on.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If we lynch SSBF now, he's got a 0% chance to win, that I'll agree with. The flaw with the rest of your logic is that you assume he's a vanilla SK, while the potential for him to be scum is still entirely possible. Everyone's calling out that this game must be 4-4-1 or 3-3-1. What about 3-3-3? For all we know the Lannisters/Greyjoys are both on their last legs. I'm not familiar at all with the flavor (as I've expressed several times) so I'm not going to press speculation further than that, but your math is terrible since you can't account for any variables without knowing the setup.

No-one knows whether there is a third scum party out there (except for the hypothetical scum, of course). That doesn’t mean that the VERY remote chance a third scum team exists makes it the right play to lynch SSBF. Let’s analyze the situation –

SSBF, if he is a member of a third scum team, has outed himself with his Vig claim. This locks that hypothetical scum team into making Town approved kills. He’ll be instantly lynched or vig-killed if he deviates. Also if a third scum faction does pop up due to Nightkill or lynch he’s also be instantly taken out as there is no way a game of this size can support three different Mafia factions and more than the Town vigs we know exist (Thor and the now defunct Richard).

There’s plently of scummy looking fear mongering going on in that argument Miku.

So, it looks like a SK claim to me. And if that's the case, I think I'd rather eliminate it now, rather than try to keep him "on a leash" as it were. We eliminate a killing "group" and extend the game.

Lord help us if we were to try and "direct" his kill, and missed a few times, and then couldn't afford to lynch him because we'd be throwing the game to the mafia. I've seen so many winable games lost due to aggressive vigging plans.

There's no need for this when we are ahead. Now is a great time to do away with the SK.

Bold added for emphasis -

1. The first bolded sentence is invalid. If the “hacked to pieces” flavour makes a single kill that isn’t rubber stamped by the confirmed / semi-confirmed Town players (Locke, Thor, Ben) he’ll be strung up immediately.
2. Your experience with past games really doesn’t apply unless you can find a game with parallel circumstances that resulted in a loss. Otherwise it’s just more fear-mongering.
3. Why do you assume SSBF’s kills might not eliminate the Lannisters or Greyjoys? You indicate you feel we are in a 3-3-1 scenario.

I'm still undecided on a few things: both whether it's a good idea to leave SSBF alive today and whether I should come forward with all my theories and reasoning (since exposing it will motivate an SK or rival scum into behaving certain ways).

Well I might have already ruined that hold back of theories thing you were going for. I’d simply suggest is that if it motivates a SK or other scum group to behave in a way that benefits Town I don’t see a short-term reason to not present your theories.

MOD

– I’ll be LA for the rest of the weekend for regular family duties. I’ll be back Monday morning.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Really thought I was going to have more catching up to do since I missed the weekend...guess people are just riding this day out. I suggest we start casting votes and get real pressure going (preferably on Unsight) so discussion will pick up again.

I really think the combination of Cow’s upcoming reveal and SSBF’s claim has under-cut many people’s drive to scum hunt.

With Vezo and CSL looming as Night / Day Vig candidates it kills the need to really do any serious pressuing or analysis of those slots.

I’ve made my thoughts known on both Rifka and Unsight. At this point I think we are headed to an endgame that is going to be efficient via the use of PoE. Not exciting or very active but efficient.

I suppose when I get a second I should really look into Diddin and Miku as I thought about before the weekend.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@ Benmage

re 1786 –

I appreciate you made the effort to purposely screw with my gender in an attempt to provoke a reaction. Nice touch. All I will say is the following -

First if your statement at 1258 is valid I don’t see why you are bothering to make a 1 to 1 comparision against me. If it’s not valid your rapid shift in playstyle Day 2 is worth examination.

Second your bruised ego will just have to get over being questioned. Your ‘status’ as more or less confirmed Town has little to do with your credibility in my eyes. When you make a statement that appears less than on the up and up I’m going to call you on it.

I guess I have to re-read diddin. I remember thinking of him as more townie earlier though I agree with Locke that his current play has felt more skittish. I'd still not mind lynching Rifka, anyone remember her?

I’d certainly support Rifka as an alternate lynch candidate to Unsight. I’ve made my thoughts well know.

Hand scum a list of people and they're going to shoot the people not on their team. At that point you're basically handing him a get-out-of-lynch card that says "Not only do you get to live another day or two, but you can continue shooting town too!"

He’s already shot 1 Lannister and 1 Greyjoy. If he’s a Serial Killer or Vig your concerns are groundless. Do you strongly believe there is a third Mafia faction running around?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Unsightplease claim. If not I am voting you.

This is yet again another example post of why I implore SSBF to seriously consider targeting Vezo at night if Cow does not turn up scum.

Rifka: why are you worried about annoying Benmage?

An answer I would definitely like to see given Rifka’s interactions with Benmage Day 1.

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from 4pm EDT today until Monday morning for regular weekend family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

L-3. I unvoted to ensure Mina posts her big post she promised us. :/

I apologize for the spamminess, Thor am dumb, but;

YO MINA!!! This is relevant.

I agree it is relevant but my question about this is such -

Why isn't Cow doing it? I know Mina has promised to do so but Cow has access to the same information. If it is important (and I think it is) for the genaral population to have access to a summary of the Kingsguard Day 2 both players who have access should be providing it, if they are Innocent. I understand the concept of duplication of work but the minute the first person posts a summary the second doesn't have to expend the effort.

Especially in light of Cow's impending reveal I can't see any reason if he is Innocent that he shouldn't be forwarding the information also.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because Mina had been promising to do it, and kept promising to do it. I didn't see a pressing need at the moment either, but I was planning to do it closer to deadline if it hadn't been done.

That’s reasonable. The main thrust of my comment wasn’t meant to be at you. I’m curious why the people who began poking Mina (and even in one case voting for her) didn’t even consider the alternative option to request you provide the summary.

/sigh

unvote

Not sure where it should go now.....

The day is almost up. Despite Thor’s reasonable suggestion if you don’t believe Unsight / Rifka are good lynches go with who you think is scum. There’s not a Pro-Town reason to end the day with an idle vote when the day doesn’t end early.

I've got my reasons; however, I'm not going to let you try and bully me into claiming just to answer your question. If you reread me well enough, and follow the trail, you'll see why I asked the question.

I wasn’t really sold on Cow’s analysis of your reaction to Locke but this response is WAY out of line compared to Cow’s accusation. No-one has even come close to mentioning claiming. And how is posting suspicions about someone bullying?

Unsight is today's lynch.
If she doesn't get modkilled at L-1 she is scum.

Insert facepalm pic here …

SSBF

– Please seriously reconsider your thoughts about putting Vezo behind CSL in your Vig list.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Prod received, nothing else to say.

Can you proxy this statement to someone else like xvart proxied his vote?

Because you are going to coast uselessly through the game and it would make it easier for your non-content posts to appear if someone could make them for you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

vote: unsight

Running out of time.

Are you going to be V/LA for the next 36 hours or so? Unless that’s the case I don’t see how this meshes well with your grand “Not until Mina posts” move you did earlier. That’s looking more like a poor attempt to earn Town cred.

I'm with Locke on this one - I really don't see why or how Unsight became the wagon of win. I see as much of a case on Rifka as her, and no one is even talking Rifka. I've been suspecting both slots for a while and for each of them I'm basically a muddle of odd gut reads and a feeling of their connection to other players, I really don't understand the swell in one direction I'm seeing here.

Re-read over the day … I think Unsight became the lynch defacto because after SSBF’s claim the only real cases put together on anyone were here. Unsight had more support when SSBF’s wagon fell apart and thus was the choice for those not looking to do any scum-hunting themselves.

Can someone point me to the Rifka case? I do not remember seeing it.

Use the link above in my reply to Thor. It is the closest thing to a formal case on Rifka you will find.

Benmage and Magna, thoughts now?

I’ve made my thought clear regarding both Rifka and Unsight. I find Unsight to be overall the better lynch candidate but believe Rifka is a strong viable alternative.

FWIW, here are my reads:

So let me get this right – you have Vezo as solid Town in your eyes but Locke as neutral (I assume from the non-green or red coding)?

I assume your listing of SSBF as scum means you don’t think he’s the Vig / SK.

Other than listing your 5 suspects as scum why aren’t you parsing who is likely Lannister versus Greyjoy?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'll be around for the next 50 minutes or so if a move to Rifka is needed. I'm not going to preemptively do so as I find Unsight a more convincing candidate.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Mac’s 2005 is very much what needs to happen. I’d even suggest we use FOSes in lieu of votes for the short term to make sure we don’t have and accident mis-fire on the secondary death.

I will not be voting for SSBF today. I don’t see anything inherently wrong with his vigging of Vezo instead of CSL given the pressure he was getting (from myself at the very least) to hit Vezo. Check his ISO … he even asks for opinions on switching over before Night.

@Thor

– Given how strongly you were for Vezo’s vigging the prior day why are you so concerned with SSBF’s change of targets?

VOTE: Unsight. My views haven’t significantly changed.

My first post of the day was going to be an explanation of why xvart could be eliminated from the suspect pool, as well as a ranking of the remaining eight suspects on their likelihood of being Greyjoys or Lannisters. The wind has been taken out of my sails.

I don’t see the Town benefit of not posting your thoughts, regardless of whether you were correct about xvart or not. Putting your thoughts out there allows everyone else to possibly see connections they might have missed. Also you’ve already done the work so it isn’t a time burden for you.

Something about the flavour confuses me. In the mini, Cersei was the poisoner and roleblocker; scum also couldn't use actions and kill on the same night unless they were the last member of their faction. Either Cersei isn't the poisoner, the one-action-per-night rule doesn't exist, or the Lannister Mafia threw away their roleblocks by sending their roleblocker to perform all their nightkills (in which case...WTF, Lannister Mafia).

I think you are overthinking the flavor element of the flips. Unlike a Mini I don’t think that scum have individual kill flavors. I find it unlikely that a single Lannister or Greyjoy has made every faction kill to this point in the game.

I actually think we're more likely to be in a 4-4-(1?) set-up. The Lannister and Greyjoy teams should be symmetrical, with one godfather, one roleblocker, and one or two goons. Either way, I'd be shocked if the Greyjoys didn't have a roleblocker counterpart to xvart.

With both xvart and benmage flipping blocking roles (Roleblocker and JK) you think that the Greyjoys have a third blocking style role? I’m not saying it is out of the question but that seems to be a little heavily weighted IMO.

I've been keeping my eye on a few people.

You’ve pretty much outed yourself as some sort of information role between the end of day discussion with Cow yesterday and your statement that you knew Locke would not be getting results. If you have information that you think identifies another scum player you need to provide it.

Otherwise you simply need to stop hinting around. It’s not helpful.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna = Also - if you support FOSing today...why the vote?

Because I just suggested it. If it gains traction (and judging by the fact that neither you nor Locke have commented positively on the idea I doubt it will) I’ll move to an FOS. Until then I’m not going to have an inactive vote.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have a big post regarding why I think SSBF is a bad lynch today saved on my home computer. I’ll post it if I get the chance. In the meantime a couple of points …

Also to Locke: Who did you even investigate? I'm just curious.

What is your Pro-Town motive for asking this? Locke has already said he was blocked. All you are doing here is potentially letting the remaining scum know if they should be worried about his scan target tonight.

If you "saw" xvart (Cersei - Roleblocker) target Locke last Night, which would obviously explain why you said you didn't exect Locke to have any results, I think you should confirm/deny at this point. That's all you should say.

Agreed.

So yeah, strong supporter, that was me. Percy said a number of things that raised my proverbial hackles this game (which I think I said already) but I certainly wasn't sure about him being scum, and didn't feel like I had enough to call him out on either.

Saying someone ‘raises your hackles’ while not actively doing anything (ie posting about it) is a distancing move. You never actively attack Percy but after the fact you can point and say ‘See, I suspected him’.

I'm coming to the opinion that reviewing a player's posts in "iso" is actually not that great. At first I thought it was neat, but now I think you lose so much of the context. Yes, you can click the post and go and see it in the actual thread as well, but I know I don't always do that.

So you find ISOing isn’t really effective because you lose context. And you expressly demonstrate you know the technique that nullifies that lack of context. But you don’t always use the technique for whatever reason. So the problem is has more to do with your motivation rather than ISOing.

At that point, Unsight had 7 votes and Rifka was now at 4. This vote doesn't bother me too much.

As I said before, I don't really think that scum would have all that much incentive to go pushing a mis-lynch on Rifka close to deadline when someone else not on their team was already on the hook.

So, maybe, if Macaviter were scumbuddies with Unsight, but even then, I don't really see him making this vote this way. He's just throwing it out there to see what happens, which is actually more of a Townish mindset than not.

Bolded for emphasis. You’ve stated you are coming around to 4 person scum-teams. Why don’t you consider that Unsight and Mac might both be Greyjoys? Additionally if you give Unsight’s 3 Mafia team theory any weight why don’t you consider them both as potential partners with SSBF?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Some thoughts on the number of remaining players and scum distribution –

Going into today we have 13 alive. After lynches we will have 11 at Nightfall. For purposes of these discussions I will format it in the following manner to accommodate all the possible theories floating around –

Lannister – Greyjoy – Unknown 3rd Mafia – Serial Killer. The scenarios listed with zeros for both last numbers indicate that SSBF is a Town Vig.

Possible scum distributions –

3-3-0-0 – The best case scenario. With three Lannister flips and two Greyjoy flips this would leave 1 scum with 12 Town.

3-3-0-1 – The next most favorable scenario that seems reasonably likely. Again the Lannisters are dead and gone and we can lynch the Serial Killer at our leisure. 2 scum (1 presumed known) with 11 Town.

4-4-0-0 – A more likely scenario from the standpoint of probable Mafia numbers. We would have one remaining Lannister and 2 remaining Greyjoys balanced by 10 Town.

4-4-0-1 – A less likely scenario. More potential problems with a three way split between Scum groups. 4 total scum and 9 total Town.

3-3-3-0 – The least likely scenario. Having a third scum team go undetected for so long with the number of flips we have seen seems like a remote possibility. 4 total scum and 9 Town, but with the downside of having a solid block of 3 Mafia.

Situation –

All the possibilities create the following possible number of scum left:

1 Scum (Greyjoy)
2 Scum (Greyjoy and SK)
3 Scum (Lannister and 2 Greyjoy)
4 Scum (Lannister, 2 Greyjoy and SK)
4 Scum (Greyjoy and 3 Unknown Affiliation)

Based on these numbers the only scenarios where it makes any logical sense to lynch SSBF are the last two scenarios.

If SSBF is actually a Vig it makes no sense to lynch him today. In either the first or third scenario he can continue to help hunt for the last Greyjoy or last Lannister and both Greyjoys, respectively. He's certainly proven he will do so.

If SSBF is a SK and we only have two scum it makes no sense to lynch him today. Town has sufficient numbers (11 to 2) going into the lynch that even with two mis-lynches and two Town kills at night Town still has a 7 to 2 advantage. SSBF can be lynched the next day or might even die as a result of crossfire if the last Greyjoy feels that SSBF might try to kill him.

If SSBF is a SK and we have a 4 and 4 scum team distribution he has to be one of today’s lynches as the 9 to 4 Town to scum ratio likely will mean a Town Kingmaker situation (which would be undesirable to say the least).

If SSBF is a member of Unsight’s mysterious third Mafia he has to be lynched today. Once again the 9 to 4 Town to scum ratio would be even more tenuous with a 3 person team still in effect.

All this said I think we are in either a 3-3-0-1 or 4-4-0-0 scenario. In that situation I don’t support his lynch for the reasons I stated above. I put a 3rd scum team as increadibly improbable and think 3-3-0-0 is likely too heavily weighted towards Town with all the bonus events that are occurring. Likewise I think 4-4-0-1 is too heavily weighted towards Scum. If not for all the cross-kills so far Town would already be in a situation where it was unlikely for Town to win.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I asked because it's something I do every time. I have caught scum fakeclaiming when they forget to say who they investigated the night they claimed to be roleblocked, so I have done it ever since.

But there is little chance Locke is fake-claiming since he know Percy was a Greyjoy. Unless, of course, you think Locke bussed Percy for an almost free endgame pass. And in that scenario he risked being counter-claimed by a real Cop of some sort. So that seems like pretty long odds.

Anyway, I made a big post with everyone's name on it and my reads. The red names are my suspects.

Off-hand I'll go with MagnaofIllusion. He's been misrepping me this whole game from the part where he was insinuating I was distancing Drippereth to the part where he said I was fence sitting with dana to now where he's spouting nonsense about me proposing a 3 scum-team game. My suspicion of MacCavitar is based on connection with SSBF. If SSBF flips SK and not mafia, then Magna who's been (pardon the French) full of shit since Day 1 is my second choice.

Listing all remaining players and saying Scum or Town or Neutral is not scum-hunting.

Let’s see – the primary reason you suggest me is that I’ve been after your scummy self since Day 2.

Regarding the ‘spouting nonsense regarding a 3 scum-team’ game I direct you to the following –

I don't buy that. I think the Day 1 oddity with MacCavityLock suggests that both are mafia.

And yet SSBF was not hacked to death last night and has Nightkilled both Lannisters and Greyjoys. Exactly which Mafia is he with MacLock? It’s inference but it’s clear that –

1. They can’t be Lannisters together as that indictes a 5 man Lannister (and by extension Greyjoy) team which is way too many for the game size.
2. They can’t be Greyjoys as scum partners don’t NK each other but bus during the daytime to achieve Town cred.
3. That leaves some hypothetical third team.

If you don’t believe in a Third team how can SSBF be buddies with MacLock? It makes ZERO sense.

And please explain how SSBF flipping Serial Killer indicates that I’m full of shit and thus Mafia?

[MagnaofIllusion]

And now I need to go back and try to remember why I though you were town, terrible as that post was.

This was a recent post re: Macavitar.

So, without looking deeper, I would say this post of Magna's raises a Red Flag. Call me narcisistic, but here I have made at least two fairly substantial posts, which he has almost completely ignored in order to make a bunch of largely irrelevant points and which appears to be desiged to do nothing more than cast dirt on me.

So you are making a snap decision – without looking deeper – that I’m making a scummy attack on you? This post, combined with your previously quoted post, shows you are clearly either a narcissist on Benmage’s scale or scumtastic. You are attacking everyone who dares to question your posting. The points I raised in that post are hardly irrelevant.

That remark of mine was a throwaway. Stream of consciousness remark in a series of posts I was making. You know it. I was expressing an opinion, but it really didn't have a lot to do with anything going on in the game. Not entirely unlike my earlier off game rant at Drippereth. But this, of all things, is what you focus on?

If it was a throw-away comment with no game relevance why make it? I commented on it because I don’t see a Pro-Town motivation for posting it. It just serves to fluff up the volume of your posts or to excuse why you aren’t building cases based on interactions and past play.

How about that 50% chance you are scum?

How about it? Your post 2024 is a POE exercise. It is perhaps a starting point but there’s no analysis in there at all. You cobble together some assumptions based on game events and reads and come up with a list of people who statistically might be scum. But your post is only as good as the assumptions you use.

I could make a similar post based on my reads an you would end up in a group of people who are statistically have a 50% chance of being scum. I will not be in that group in my analysis because I know I am innocent and thus excluded from my suspect pool.

Your post should be the starting point from which you dig into the ISOs of said players and look for scum-tells and interactions. Yet you are treating it as if it is a strong analytical post. It's not.

What are you even talking about. I said - in the very post you have quoted - that maybe Unsight and Mac could be on the same team. But the way Mac cast his vote leads me away from drawing that conclusion. It didn't look like someone trying to "protect" his buddy. It didn't look like somone aggrresively trying to drive an alternate wagon. It was like "hey, lets do this and see what happens!"

Here is your statement that I highlighted –

As I said before, I don't really think that scum would have all that much incentive to go pushing a mis-lynch on Rifka close to deadline when someone else not on their team was already on the hook.

Again for the record – if Mac and Unsight are on the same team (ie Greyjoys) he has every reason to make a vote on an alternate wagon. Simply by making a 4th vote on the Rifka Mac creates more legitimacy to the wagon. He doesn’t have to blatant push anything.

And before this gets taken out of context I am not stating an opinion about Mac being a possible scum partner Unsight. I am simply stating how the thought process behind your Town assessment of the vote is weak.

In general 2018 looks less like an attempt at game analysis and more like an attempt to buddy up to a group of players perceived as Town. The only player whose vote you find fault with is from Diddin.

Locke has stated the by flavor Diddin is almost certainly not a Greyjoy. And it seems ludicrous to assume Diddin is a Lannister with Unsight based on the three Lannister flips. So what is his scum motivation to move to what turned out to be a mis-lynch? Especially given that Locke has stated he would move to Unsight to prevent a no-lynch. Diddin can’t be protecting a partner based on the flavor issue (and on this I defer to those with more knowledge). If he is scum he should have just waited out deadline and let Locke hammer Unsight.

So, Magna, why do you trust your opinion of the likely setup enough to potentially give up the game if you're wrong?

Because I trust my judgement and reasoning. Seriously, what sort of response are you expecting? And no, the conclusion that SSBF “must be lynched” under a scenario does not trump my conclusion that that I think we are under a 3-3-0-1 or 4-4-0-0 scenario. In terms of expected value the percentage chance I attribute to the scenarios where he must be lynched are so small they total expected outcome for me is ‘Do Not Lynch’ SSBF.

If you don’t agree with my logic don’t follow it. More than a majority of the players in the game would need to agree (given 2 lynches today) for SSBF not to be lynched.

That wasn't meant to be scumhunting. That was meant to be information for the town after I died.

And yet you posted the list again today after Daybreak. And still your contribution to the thread consist of your read list with no support and slandering me. No scum-hunting to be seen.

You're the scum here and it shows in your case which has amounted to a load of piss-poor accusations from distancing drippereth to fence-sitting with dana as well as your tendency to ignore every post where I shot them down. That's not the play of someone hunting scum, it's the play of someone angling for a mislynch while conveniently avoiding other wagons.

This amounts to a “No U” response. I don’t ignore you posts, but just because you form some half-hearted defense doesn’t mean I am required to find it credible.

To accuse me of not scum-hunting when all you do is pretty much play defend yourself and make no cases (just lists with pretty colors) is ludicrous.

And what wagons again am I avoiding? It’s not like I had to be dragged kicking and screaming like you to the only scum lynch (dana) we have had so far.

And to address your repeated accusations that I ‘invented’ the Third scumteam theory here is the reason why I consider you as believing that theory –

I don't buy that. I think the Day 1 oddity with MacCavityLock suggests that both are mafia.

So you think there's a third scumteam?

Or SSBF is just lying.

Your response to Locke at 1844 clearly indicates you believe it a possibility. So please stop saying I ‘make crap up’ when it is based on your own posting.

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from 4pm EDT today until Monday morning. I will be out of town with my family and have zero internet access.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't have the time, but I could respond to that post, which totally was making irrelevant points. It was not a "snap" decision - which is

an interesting choice of words.

Emphasis added. The classic ‘Interesting’ attack. When you know you can’t say something is scummy but want to infer that it is.

Because sometime people just say stuff that's on their mind? I made a bunch of posts which could hardly be characterized as "fluff" with some pretty decent analysis if I do say so myself, but you cherry pick this post to criticize as me upping my "fluff" post count? That's what was suspicious.

A bunch of posts with decent analysis? Can you name more than 1. I’ll be charitable and say your ‘Wagon’ analysis post is something that closely resembles decent analysis. Your huge POE IIoA post is hardly that. The rest of you flurry of posts are –

2013 is defense. No scum-hunting there.
2015 and 2016 are the same.
2017 is the fluff you are so offended I pointed out.
2018 is your Wagon post.
2024 is your POE.

Every post since then has been either responding to me or stating your time is limited.

In summary I find your suggestion that you’ve provided a ‘bunch of posts’ with ‘decent analysis’ to be a weak defense.

What YOU should be doing is either agreeing that this is a good starting point, and then looking closer at said people yourself, or disagree that the post is valid. explain why not, and do something else.

And why aren’t YOU looking at the people on you POE list then? You are basically resting on you ‘laurels’ saying “I made this great post”.

And I’ve already pointed out the person on your list I want lynched repeatedly – Unsight. I made my case yesterday and earlier today.

There is nothing wrong with my thougth processes. They are apparently better than yours atm.

I’ll certainly agree that your ad hominem skills are first rate

Well, what's YOUR opinion about the other voters? You haven't said yet. Again, my post could be used as a starting point for a discussion about the lynch, were you interested in going there, but you don't seem to be.

And no-one else has either. That should be a clue that until Unsight flips making an assessment of the counterwagon is at best speculation. If Unsight is indeed Greyjoy I’d say that the other Greyjoy (in a 4-4 scenario) MUST be on the wagon. If Unsight is anything else the analysis is pointless.

So yeah, I really don’t think delving into the Rifka wagon is really worth the time right now. Are you trying to say that is scummy?

[MagnaofIllusion]

This is my point. How can you justify this "small percentage" if you don't have more info about the setup than the rest of us?

Let’s look at the two scenarios I’ve assigned a ‘small percentage’ 3-3-3-0 and 4-4-0-1.

Both have one thing in common – 9 total scum. With 26 players at the start that gives us a raw percentage of Mafia of 34.61% for each scenario. That’s over the high end of the ‘rule of thumb’ of 33%.

The fact that a we have already had 3 Lannister and 2 Greyjoy flips with no flips related to the theoretical third Mafia leads me to the logic conclusion that we are not 3-3-3-0. Also on the history of MS can you point to a Large game with 3 full fledged Mafia groups? My knowledge isn’t encyclopaedic but I’ve never seen more than two in games I’ve read here.

The 4-4-0-1 scenario is slighty more likely than the 3-3-3-0 but I still feel that it boasts too many scum at the start. The Town PRs that we know of (multiple version of weak / limited Vigs, Name Cop, Jailkeeper and Neighborizor) don’t appear to me to be so overwhelming that they would compensate for such a high starting group of Scum.

I'm obviously not going to follow your logic, but I'm also not going to ignore it. Finding faulty logic is often good scumhunting.

If you can point out faulty logic do so. I’m curious what you find so faulty about my thought process.

I think the same group of people are going around in circles. Why haven't we lynched yet

It’s called discussion and scum-hunting. Just because you are happy to sit on your hands and do jack crap based on your cleared status doesn’t mean the rest of us should be so lazy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because discussion is slowing I’ve decided to do a massive VC analysis. This post will summarize Day 1 through Day 3’s vote counts by Eddard.

Proven Town players (through flip or scan) will be colored blue.
Lannisters will be colored red.
Greyjoys will be colored green (for readability).

I’ll hide each Day in a Spoiler box. Each player will be replaced in all vote-counts with the current slot inhabitant for consistency purposes.

Day 1 –

Spoiler: Raw Vote Counts

Vote count 1.1

Lynch Count

Raivann

(3) - Super Smash Bros. Fan,

Drippereth

,

Percy

Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

Julienvonwolfe

,

Budja

, RichardGHP

LynchMePls

(2) - Mikujin, MacavityLock

Julienvonwolfe

(1) -

danakillsu

Locke Lamora (1) -

Raivann

MacavityLock (1) - Mina
Mikujin (1) -

LynchMePls

Mina (1) -

I doubt it

Not voting to Lynch (13) -

xvart

,

CryMeARiver

, Unsight, Thor665,

Benmage

, Axelrod,

Vezopiraka

, Locke Lamora, Diddin, CSL,

Rifka Viveka

,

Hasdgfas,

MagnaOfIllusion,

Vote count 1.2: The 'All these kings would do a deal better if they would put down their swords & listen to their mothers. ' votecount

Lynch Count

Raivann

(3) - Super Smash Bros. Fan,

Drippereth

,

Percy

Super Smash Bros. Fan (4) -

Julienvonwolfe

,

Budja

, RichardGHP, MagnaOfIllusion

LynchMePls

(1) - Mikujin

Julienvonwolfe

(1) -

danakillsu

Locke Lamora (1) -

Raivann

MacavityLock (1) - Mina
Mikujin (1) -

LynchMePls

Mina (1) -

I doubt it

RichardGHP (2) -

CryMeARiver

, MacavityLock

CryMeARiver

(1) -

Vezopiraka,

Benmage

MagnaOfIllusion (1) - Axelrod
Axelrod (1) -

Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(1) - Unsight

Not voting to Lynch (6) -

xvart

, Thor665, Locke Lamora, Diddin, CSL,

Rifka Viveka

.

Vote count 1.3: The 'Can a man still be brave if he's afraid? ' votecount

Lynch Count

Raivann

(4) - Super Smash Bros. Fan,

Drippereth

,

Percy

,

xvart

Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

Julienvonwolfe, Budja

,MagnaOfIllusion

LynchMePls

(1) - Mikujin

Julienvonwolfe

(1) -

danakillsu

Locke Lamora (1) -

Raivann

MacavityLock (1) - Mina
Mikujin (1) -

LynchMePls

Mina (1) -

I doubt it

RichardGHP (2) -

CryMeARiver

, MacavityLock

CryMeARiver

(3) -

Vezopiraka,

Benmage

, RichardGHP
MagnaOfIllusion (1) - Axelrod
Axelrod (1) - H

asdgfas

Drippereth

(2) - Unsight, Locke Lamora

xvart

(1) -

danakillsu

Not voting to Lynch (4) - Thor665, Diddin, CSL,

Rifka Viveka.

Vote count 1.4: The 'A good act does not wash out the bad, nor a bad act the good. Each should have its own reward.' votecount

Lynch Count

Raivann

(1) -

Rifka Viveka

Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

Julienvonwolfe, Budja

, MagnaOfIllusion

LynchMePls

(1) - Mikujin
Locke Lamora (1) -

Raivann

MacavityLock (1) - Mina
RichardGHP (6) -

CryMeARiver

, MacavityLock,

I doubt it

,

LynchMePls

,

xvart

,

Drippereth

CryMeARiver

(3) -

Vezopiraka,

Benmage,

RichardGHP
MagnaOfIllusion (1) - Axelrod
Axelrod (1) -

Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(2) - Unsight, Locke Lamora

xvart

(1) -

danakillsu

Hasdgfas

(2) - Super Smash Bros. Fan.,

Percy

Diddin (1) - Diddin

Not voting to Lynch (2) - Thor665, CSL,

Vote count 1.5: The 'But I want to be a knight!' votecount

Lynch Count

Raivann

(1) -

Rifka Viveka

Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

Julienvonwolfe, Budja

, Unsight

LynchMePls

(1) - Mikujin
Locke Lamora (1) -

Raivann

RichardGHP (8) -

CryMeARiver

, MacavityLock,

I doubt it

,

LynchMePls

,

xvart

,

Drippereth

, MagnaOfIllusion,

danakillsu

CryMeARiver

(2) -

vezopiraka,

RichardGHP
MagnaOfIllusion (1) - Axelrod
Axelrod (1) -

Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(2) - Locke Lamora,

Benmage

Hasdgfas

(2) - Super Smash Bros. Fan.,

Percy

Diddin (2) - Diddin, Mina

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL

Not voting to Lynch (1) – Thor665

Vote count 1.6: The 'As the gods will it. Bring on your storm, my lord - and recall, if you do, the name of this castle' votecount.

Lynch Count

Raivann

(1) -

Rifka Viveka

Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

Julienvonwolfe, Budja

, Unsight

LynchMePls

(1) - Mikujin
Locke Lamora (1) -

Raivann

RichardGHP (9) -

CryMeARiver,

MacavityLock,

I doubt it

,

LynchMePls

,

xvart

,

Drippereth

, MagnaOfIllusion,

danakillsu

,

vezopiraka

CryMeARiver

(1) -RichardGHP
MagnaOfIllusion (1) - Axelrod

Drippereth

(2) - Locke Lamora,

Benmage

Diddin (2) - Diddin, Mina

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (1) -

Percy

Not voting to Lynch (3) - Thor665,

hasdgfas

, Super Smash Bros. Fan.

Vote count 1.7: The 'I want to see him fly ' votecount.

Lynch Count

Raivann

(1) -

Rifka Viveka

Super Smash Bros. Fan (2) -

Julienvonwolfe

, Unsight
RichardGHP (13) -

CryMeARiver

, MacavityLock,

I doubt it

,

LynchMePls

,

xvart

,

Drippereth

, MagnaOfIllusion,

danakillsu

,

vezopiraka

,

Raivann

, Locke Lamora, Mikujin, diddin

CryMeARiver

(3) -RichardGHP,

Hasdgfas, Budja

MagnaOfIllusion (1) - Axelrod

Drippereth

(1) -

Benmage

Diddin (1) - Mina

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (1) -

Percy

Not voting to Lynch (2) - Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan.

Vote count 1.8: The 'There are no men like me. There's only me' votecount.

Lynch Count

Raivann

(1) -

Rifka Viveka

Super Smash Bros. Fan (2) -

Julienvonwolfe

, Unsight
RichardGHP (9) - MacavityLock,

LynchMePls

,

xvart

, MagnaOfIllusion,

vezopiraka

,

Raivann

, Locke Lamora, Mikujin, diddin

CryMeARiver

(3) -RichardGHP,

Hasdgfas, Budja

Drippereth

(1) -

Benmage

Diddin (1) - Mina

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (1) -

Percy

Not voting to Lynch (6) - Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan.,

danakillsu

,

I doubt it

,

CryMeARiver,

Drippereth,

Axelrod.

Vote count 1.9: The '"I will hear you say it. She was Elia of Dorne." ' votecount.

Lynch Count

Raivann

(1) -

Rifka Viveka

Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

Julienvonwolfe

, Unsight,

Danakillsu

RichardGHP (7) - MacavityLock,

xvart

, MagnaOfIllusion,

Raivann,

Locke Lamora, Mikujin, diddin

CryMeARiver

(3) -RichardGHP,

Hasdgfas, Budja

Drippereth

(1) -

Benmage

Diddin (2) - Mina,Super Smash Bros. Fan

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (1) -

Percy

Not voting to Lynch (7) - Thor665,

I doubt it

,

CryMeARiver, Drippereth

, Axelrod,

LynchMePls, vezopiraka.

Vote count 1.10: The '"What is dead may never die, but rises again, harder and stronger" ' votecount.

Lynch Count

Raivann

(1) -

Rifka Viveka

Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

Julienvonwolfe,

Unsight,

Danakillsu

RichardGHP (6) - MacavityLock, MagnaOfIllusion,

Raivann,

Locke Lamora, Mikujin, diddin

CryMeARiver

(4) -RichardGHP,

Hasdgfas, Budja, vezopiraka

Drippereth

(1) -

Benmage

Diddin (2) - Mina,Super Smash Bros. Fan

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (2) -

Percy

, Axelrod

Danakillsu

(1) -

xvart

Budja

(2) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls

Benmage

(1) -

I doubt it

Not voting to Lynch (2) - Thor665,

CryMeARiver

.

Vote count 1.11: The "Stick them with the pointy end" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

Julienvonwolfe

, Unsight,

Danakillsu

RichardGHP (5) -

Raivann

, Locke Lamora, Mikujin, diddin,

vezopiraka

CryMeARiver

(3) -RichardGHP,

Hasdgfas, Budja

Drippereth

(1) -

Benmage

Diddin (1) - Super Smash Bros. Fan

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (3) -

Percy

, Axelrod, MacavityLock

Danakillsu

(1) -

xvart

Budja (

2) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls

Benmage

(1) -

I doubt it

Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion
Unsight (1) Mina

Not voting to Lynch (3) - Thor665,

CryMeARiver, Rifka Vivieka

Vote count 1.12: The "When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground." votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) - J

ulienvonwolfe

, Unsight,

Danakillsu

RichardGHP (4) -

Raivann

, Locke Lamora, diddin ,

vezopiraka

CryMeARiver

(2) -RichardGHP,

Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Vezopiraka

(2) - CSL, Mikujin
CSL (3) -

Percy,

Axelrod, MacavityLock

Danakillsu

(1) -

xvart

Budja

(3) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls

, Super Smash Bros. Fan

Benmage

(1) -

I doubt it

Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion
Unsight (1) Mina

Not voting to Lynch (3) - Thor665,

CryMeARiver, Rifka Vivieka

Vote count 1.13: The "Night gathers, and now my watch begins." votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (2) -

Julienvonwolfe

, Unsight
RichardGHP (3) -

Raivann

, Locke Lamora, diddin

CryMeARiver

(1) -

Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Vezopiraka

(2) - CSL, Mikujin
CSL (3) -

Percy,

Axelrod, MacavityLock

danakillsu

(2) -

xvart,

Thor665

Budja

(6) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka

Benmage

(1) -

I doubt it

Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion
Unsight (1) Mina

Not voting to Lynch (2) -

CryMeARiver

,

Rifka Vivieka

Vote count 1.14: The "I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children." votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight
RichardGHP (2) -

Raivann

, diddin

CryMeARiver

(1) -

Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Vezopiraka

(2) - CSL, Mikujin
CSL (3) -

Percy

, Axelrod, MacavityLock

danakillsu

(2) -

xvart

, Thor665

Budja

(7) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka,

I doubt it

Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion
Unsight (2) Mina, Locke Lamora

Not voting to Lynch (3) -

CryMeARiver, Rifka Vivieka, Julienvonwolfe

Vote count 1.15: The "There is no creature on earth half so terrifying as a truly just man." votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight
RichardGHP (2) -

Raivann

, diddin

CryMeARiver (

1) -

Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Vezopiraka

(2) - CSL, Mikujin
CSL (3) -

Percy

, Axelrod, MacavityLock

danakillsu

(2) -

xvart

, Thor665

Budja

(7) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka

,

I doubt it

Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion
Unsight (2) Mina, Locke Lamora

Not voting to Lynch (3) -

CryMeARiver, Rifka Vivieka, Julienvonwolfe

Vote count 1.15: The "There is no creature on earth half so terrifying as a truly just man." votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight
RichardGHP (1) - diddin

CryMeARiver

(1) -

Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (2) - Axelrod, MacavityLock

danakillsu

(2) -

xvart

, Thor665

Budja

(8) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka

,

I doubt it

,

Raivann

Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion
Unsight (1) Locke Lamora

Raivann

(3) Mina, Mikujin,

Percy

Not voting to Lynch (3) -

CryMeARiver, Rifka Vivieka, Julienvonwolfe

Vote count 1.16: The "Ours is the Fury" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight
RichardGHP (1) - Diddin

CryMeARiver

(1) -

Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (2) - Axelrod, MacavityLock

danakillsu

(3) -

xvart

, Thor665,

Raivann

Budja

(7) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls,

Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka

,

I doubt it

Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion
Unsight (1) Locke Lamora

Raivann

(3) Mina, Mikujin,

Percy

Not voting to Lynch (3) -

CryMeARiver, Rifka Vivieka, Julienvonwolfe

Vote count 1.17: The "A Lannister always pays his deaths" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight
RichardGHP (3) - Diddin,

Raivann

,

LynchMePls

CryMeARiver (1) -Hasdgfas

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (1) - Axelrod

danakillsu

(2) -

xvart

, Thor665

Budja

(6) -

Drippereth

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka,

I doubt it

Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion
Unsight (1) Locke Lamora

Raivann

(4) Mina, Mikujin,

Percy

, Locke Lamora
MagnaofIllusion (1) MacavityLock

Not voting to Lynch (3) -

CryMeARiver, Rifka Vivieka, Julienvonwolfe

Vote count 1.18: The "Unbowed. Unbent. Unbroken" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight
RichardGHP (1) -

Raivann

CryMeARiver

(2) -

Hasdgfas, LynchmePls

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Vezopiraka

(1) - CSL
CSL (1) - Axelrod

danakillsu

(2) -

xvart

, Thor665

Budja

(6) - D

rippereth

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka

,

I doubt it

Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion
Unsight (1) Locke Lamora

Raivann

(4) Mina, Mikujin,

Percy

, Locke Lamora
MagnaofIllusion (1) MacavityLock

Not voting to Lynch (4) -

CryMeARiver, Rifka Vivieka, Julienvonwolfe,

Diddin

Vote count 1.19: The "Is there gold hidden in the village?" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight
RichardGHP (1) -

Raivann

CryMeARiver

(3) -

Hasdgfas, LynchmePls

,

Percy

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

CSL (1) - Axelrod

danakillsu

(2) -

xvart

, Thor665

Budja

(6) -

Drippereth

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka

, CSL
Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion

Raivann

(5) Mina, Mikujin, Locke Lamora,

julienvonwolfe

,

I doubt it

MagnaofIllusion (1) MacavityLock

Not voting to Lynch (3) -

CryMeARiver, Rifka Vivieka

, Diddin

Vote count 1.20: The " Wear it in silence or I'll honour you again " votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight
RichardGHP (1) -

Raivann

CryMeARiver

(5) -

Hasdgfas, LynchmePls

,

Percy,

MacavityLock, RichardGHP

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

CSL (1) - Axelrod

danakillsu

(2) -

xvart,

Thor665

Budja

(5) -

Drippereth

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu,

vezopiraka

, CSL
Mikujin (1) -MagnaofIllusion

Raivann

(5) Mina, Mikujin, Locke Lamora,

julienvonwolfe

,

I doubt it

Not voting to Lynch (3) - CryM

eARiver, Rifka Vivieka

, Diddin

Vote count 1.21: The "King eats and the Hand takes the shit" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight
RichardGHP (1) -

Raivann

CryMeARiver

(9) -

Hasdgfas, LynchmePls

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

vezopiraka,

Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

danakillsu

(1) -Thor665

Budja

(3) -

Drippereth,

Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

Raivann

(7) Mina, Mikujin, Locke Lamora,

julienvonwolfe

,

I doubt it

,

Rifka Vivieka

,

Percy

Not voting to Lynch (2) -

CryMeARiver

, Diddin

Vote count 1.22: The "Love is poison. A sweet poison, yes, but it will kill you all the same. " votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight

CryMeARiver (

10) -

Hasdgfas, LynchmePls

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

vezopiraka,

Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Budja

(3) -

Drippereth

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

Raivann

(8) Mina, Mikujin, Locke Lamora,

julienvonwolfe,

I doubt it

,

Rifka Vivieka

,

Percy

,Thor665

Not voting to Lynch (2) -

CryMeARiver

, Diddin

Vote count 1.23: The "There are no true knights, no more than there are gods." votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight

CryMeARiver

(9) -

Hasdgfas, LynchmePls

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart,

Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

Drippereth

(2) -

Benmage, Budja

Budja

(1) -

Drippereth

Raivann

(11) Mina, Mikujin, Locke Lamora,

julienvonwolfe

,

I doubt it

,

Rifka Vivieka

,

Percy,

Thor665,

Danakillsu

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

Vezokpiraka

Vote count 1.24: The "Why should a man humble himself when the world is so full of men eager to do that job for him?" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight

CryMeARiver

(10) -

Hasdgfas

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart,

Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

,

I Doubt It

,

Vezokpiraka

Drippereth

(1) -

Budja

Budja

(2) -

Drippereth,

Mina

Raivann

(9) Mikujin, Locke Lamora,

julienvonwolfe, Rifka Vivieka

,

Percy

,Thor665,

Danakillsu,

Super Smash Bros. Fan,

Benmage

RichardGHP (1)

LynchmePls

Not voting to Lynch (2) -

CryMeARiver,

Diddin

Vote count 1.25: The "Don’t kill him here!" "Don’t kill him anywhere" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight

CryMeARiver

(10) -

Hasdgfas

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart

, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

, Mikujin,

Percy

Drippereth

(1) -

Budja

Budja

(2) -

Drippereth

, Mina

Raivann

(5) - Locke Lamora,

julienvonwolfe,

Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

Benmage

RichardGHP (5) -

LynchmePls, Rifka Vivieka

, Da

nakillsu, I Doubt It

,

Vezokpiraka

Not voting to Lynch (2) -

CryMeARiver

, Diddin

Vote count 1.25: The "My father is very good at doing nothing. He calls it thinking.
" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight

CryMeARiver

(13) -

Hasdgfas,

MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart,

Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

, Mikujin,

Percy,

Budja, Vezokpiraka,

Locke Lamora

Budja

(2) -

Drippereth

, Mina

Raivann

(4) -

julienvonwolfe,

Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

Benmage

RichardGHP (4) -

LynchmePls, Rifka Vivieka,

Danakillsu, I Doubt It,

Not voting to Lynch (2) -

CryMeARiver,

Diddin

Vote count 1.26: The "Jaime Lannister sends his regards" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight

CryMeARiver

(13) -

Hasdgfas

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart

, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

, Mikujin,

Percy

,

Budja, Vezokpiraka

, Locke Lamora

Budja

(2) -

Drippereth, Mina

Raivann

(4) -

julienvonwolfe

, Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

Benmage

RichardGHP (4) -

LynchmePls, Rifka Vivieka

,

Danakillsu, I Doubt It,

Not voting to Lynch (2) - CryMeARiver, Diddin

Vote count 1.27: The "FINAL VOTECOUNT OF DAY 1" votecount.

Lynch Count
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Unsight

CryMeARiver

(14) -

Hasdgfas

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart

, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

, Mikujin,

Percy

,

Budja, Vezokpiraka

, Locke Lamora,

LynchMePls

Budja

(2) -

Drippereth

, Mina

Raivann

(4) -

julienvonwolfe

, Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

Benmage

RichardGHP (3) -

Rifka Vivieka

,

Danakillsu, I Doubt It

,
Not voting to Lynch (2) -

CryMeARiver

, Diddin

[MagnaofIllusion]

EWBOP - I only did Day 1 in that post because it is massive.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Day 2

– Same formatting as Day 1 –

Spoiler: Raw VC Data

Vote count 2.1: The "I'm honest. It's the world that's awful. Now fly away little bird, I'm sick of you peeping at me. " votecount.

Lynch Count

Vezokpiraka

(1) - Super Smash Bros. Fan

Danakillsu

(3) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin
CSL (1) -

Percy

Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it,

LynchMePls

Not voting to Lynch (15) - diddin, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart

, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Vezokpiraka

, Locke Lamora, Unsight,

Rifka Vivieka

,

Danakillsu,

Benmage, Drippereth,

Mina

Vote count 2.2: The " I seldom fling children from towers to improve their health. Yes, I meant for him to die" votecount.

Lynch Count

Vezokpiraka

(1) - Super Smash Bros. Fan

Danakillsu

(4) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod
CSL (2) -

Percy

, Mina
Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it,

LynchMePls

Mikujin (1) - MacavityLock
Not voting to Lynch (12) - diddin, RichardGHP,

xvart,

MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Vezokpiraka

, Locke Lamora, Unsight,

Rifka Vivieka

,

Danakillsu

,

Benmage, Drippereth

Vote count 2.3: The "Do you have any notion what happens when a city is sacked, Sansa?" votecount.

Lynch Count

Vezokpiraka

(1) - Super Smash Bros. Fan

Danakillsu

(4) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod
CSL (2) -

Percy

, Mina
Super Smash Bros. Fan (4) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it,

LynchMePls,

Unsight
Mikujin (1) - MacavityLock
Not voting to Lynch (11) - diddin, RichardGHP,

xvart

, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Vezokpiraka

, Locke Lamora,

Rifka Vivieka,

Danakillsu,

Benmage, Drippereth

Vote count 2.4: The "The dead are likely dull fellows, full of tedious complaints" votecount.

Lynch Count

Vezokpiraka

(1) - Super Smash Bros. Fan

Danakillsu

(6) -

Percy,

Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

CSL (2) -

Percy,

Mina
Super Smash Bros. Fan (4) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it

,

LynchMePls

, Unsight
Mikujin (1) - MacavityLock
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora
Not voting to Lynch (8) - diddin, MagnaofIllusion, CSL,

Vezo

kpiraka, Rifka Vivieka

,

Danakillsu,

Benmage, Drippereth

Vote count 2.5: The " That's no law, just a sword. Happens I got one too. " votecount.

Lynch Count

Vezokpiraka

(1) - Super Smash Bros. Fan

Danakillsu

(7) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls

CSL (2) -

Percy,

Mina
Super Smash Bros. Fan (6) -

hasdgfas,

I Doubt it

, Unsight, CSL,

Rifka Viveka

, MacavityLock
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora
Not voting to Lynch (6) - diddin MagnaofIllusion,

Vezokpiraka

,

Danakillsu

,

Benmage, Drippereth

Vote count 2.6: The "Besides, I wanted to make the goat say thappireth." votecount.

Lynch Count

Vezokpiraka

(1) - Super Smash Bros. Fan

Danakillsu

(8) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart,

LynchMePls,Vezokpiraka

CSL (2) -

Percy

, Mina
Super Smash Bros. Fan (7) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it,

Unsight, CSL,

Rifka Viveka

, MacavityLock,

danakillsu

MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora
Not voting to Lynch (4) - diddin, MagnaofIllusion,

Benmage, Drippereth

Vote count 2.7: The "Now sheath your bloody sword or I'll take it from you and shove it somewhere even Renly never found." votecount.

Lynch Count

Vezokpiraka

(1) - Super Smash Bros. Fan

Danakillsu

(10) -

Percy,

Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls,Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, CSL
CSL (2) -

Percy,

Mina
Super Smash Bros. Fan (5) -

hasdgfas,

I Doubt it

,

Rifka Viveka

, MacavityLock,

Danakillsu

MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

LynchMePls (

1) -Unsight
Not voting to Lynch (3) - diddin, MagnaofIllusion,

Drippereth

Vote count 2.8: The "Brother fucker!" votecount.

Lynch Count

Vezokpiraka

(1) - Super Smash Bros. Fan

Danakillsu

(9) -

Percy,

Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls,Vezokpiraka, Benmage

CSL (2) -

Percy

, Mina
Super Smash Bros. Fan (5) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it,

Rifka Viveka

, MacavityLock,

Danakillsu

MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

LynchMePls

(1) -Unsight
Not voting to Lynch (3) - diddin, MagnaofIllusion,

Drippereth

Vote count 2.9: The "The heart lies and the head plays tricks with us, but the eyes see true." votecount.

Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(10) -

Percy,

Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion
CSL (3) -

Percy,

Mina, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros. Fan (6) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it

,

Rifka Viveka,

MacavityLock, diddin
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

LynchMePls

(1) -Unsight

Vezipiraka

(1) -

Danakillsu

Not voting to Lynch (1) –

Drippereth

Vote count 2.10: The "What if the wolves come?" votecount.

Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(10) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion
CSL (3) -

Percy,

Mina, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros. Fan (5) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it

,

Rifka Viveka

, MacavityLock, diddin
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

LynchMePls (

1) -Unsight

Vezopiraka

(2) -

Danakillsu

,

Drippereth

Vote count 2.11: The "Your grace...Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought honourably. And Rhaegar died." votecount.

Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(10) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion
CSL (3) -

Percy

, Mina, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros. Fan (5) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it,

Rifka Viveka

, diddin
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

LynchMePls

(1) -Unsight

Vezipiraka

(3) -

Danakillsu

,

Drippereth

, MacavityLock

Vote count 2.12: The "When a dog goes bad, the fault lies with his master " votecount.

Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(10) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion
CSL (3) -

Percy

, Mina, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros. Fan (4) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it

,

Rifka Viveka

, diddin
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

LynchMePls

(1) -Unsight

Vezipiraka

(3) -

Danakillsu,

Drippereth

, MacavityLock

Vote count 2.13: The "A man will not sleep until a girl unsays a certain name." votecount.

Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(11) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion, Unsight
CSL (3) -

Percy

, Mina, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros. Fan (4) - h

asdgfas

,

I Doubt it

,

Rifka Viveka

, diddin
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

Vezipiraka

(3) -

Danakillsu

,

Drippereth

, MacavityLock

Vote count 2.14: The "Your royal father? A large fierce man with a black beard; you'll recall him if you try. He was king before you." votecount.

Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(11) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion, Unsight
CSL (3) -

Percy

, Mina, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros. Fan (4) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it

, Ri

fka Viveka

, diddin
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

Vezokpiraka

(3) -

Danakillsu

,

Drippereth

, MacavityLock

Vote count 2.14: The "Tyrion is Tywin's son, not you. I said so once to your father's face and he would not speak to me for half a year"votecount[/u].

Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(11) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion, Unsight
CSL (2) -

Percy

, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros. Fan (4) -

hasdgfas,

I Doubt it

,

Rifka Viveka

, diddin
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

Vezokpiraka

(4) -

Danakillsu

,

Drippereth,

MacavityLock, Mina

Vote count 2.15: The "The End of Day 2" votecount"

Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(12) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP, x

xvart

,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion, Unsight,

Rifka Viveka

CSL (2) -

Percy

, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros. Fan (2) -

hasdgfas,

I Doubt it

, diddin
MacavityLock (1) - Locke Lamora

Vezokpiraka

(4) -

Danakillsu,

Drippereth

, MacavityLock, Mina

[MagnaofIllusion]

Apparently this got eaten by MS earlier ... luckily I have everthing in Word ...

What do I take from Day 1 VC?

Wagons of Significance (at their peak)

RichardGHP (13) -

CryMeARiver

, MacavityLock,

I doubt it

,

LynchMePls,

xvart

,

Drippereth

, MagnaOfIllusion,

danakillsu

,

vezopiraka

,

Raivann,

Locke Lamora, Mikujin, diddin

Budja

(8) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka

,

I doubt it,

Raivann

CryMeARiver

(10) -Hasd

gfas, LynchmePls

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

vezopiraka

, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

Raivann

(11) Mina, Mikujin, Locke Lamora,

julienvonwolfe

,

I doubt it

,

Rifka Vivieka

,

Percy

,Thor665,

Danakillsu

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

CryMeARiver

(14) -

Hasdgfas

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart,

Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

, Mikujin,

Percy

,

Budja, Vezokpiraka

, Locke Lamora,

LynchMePls

Regarding the Lannisters –

The Lannisters voted together often Day 1, even on insignificant wagons.

By Vote Count 4 IDI and xvart were both on Richard’s early wagon which dana later joined.

At Vote Count 14 Dana and IDI were both on Budja’s growing wagon.

At Vote Count 23 IDI an dana both join the Raivann wagon.

At Vote Count 24 IDI joins xvart on the CMAR wagon.

At Vote count 25 dana and IDI appear on Richard’s late minor wagon and park there for the day.

If we have any Lannisters remaining I have serious doubts all four would be involved in Richard’s early wagon. In my mind this indicates the chances of Mac, Muki and diddin as being Lannisters (on VC alone) are slim.

If we have any Lannisters remaining they may appear on at least one of the two major wagons (CMAR at 10 and CMAR at 14) where we only see 1 (xvart). After removing those I POE above leaves –

Richard, Axelrod, CSL, Locke

Regarding the Greyjoys –

We expect at least 1 Greyjoy (and possibly 2) remain in play. We have less data to work from with only 2 flips but Raivann and Percy were very careful not to vote together on any major wagons until CMAR 14. For this reason I expect that you will find at least additional 1 Greyjoy on non-Raivann wagon shown above with only 1 Greyjoy.

This leaves a Pool of Mac, Locke, Muki, diddin, SSBF, Axelrod, and CSL.

Regarding those off the majority wagons –

The following people appeared on only 1 or none of the major wagons above. Staying out of the limelight by not appearing on significant wagons is also worth a look.

Mina and Thor only appear on the Raivann wagon.
Unsight is the only active player not to appear on any of the wagons.

The grand pool of interest from this analysis is initially

Richard, Axel, CSL, Locke, Mina, Thor, Unsight, Macavitar, Muki, diddin and SSBF.

From this pool I am removing the following persons for the specified reasons –

Richard – Claim combined with flip of Ser Loras unfortunately clears him
Locke – Claim seems unlikely to leave him a Lannister since we have had no counter-claims to his Name Cop or seen any other confirmed Town informational roles
Thor – Proven Dayvig ability means he is likely not scum
Diddin – Only appears as a suspected Greyjoy list in the above VC analysis and Locke’s has represented his role name would not be Greyjoy aligned.
SSBF – Has claimed flavor that had not been counterclaimed and said flavor has killed both a Lannister and a Greyjoy.

My pool of interest for Day 1 thus is Axel, CSL, Mina, Unsight, Macavitar, and Muki.

I’ll be working Day 2 and 3 (hopefully) later today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

EBWOP - the D1 pool of interest should be subsected as such -

Lannister only candidates - None
Greyjoy only candidates - Macavitar, Muki
Potentially either team candidate - Mina, Unsight, Axel, CSL

[MagnaofIllusion]

What do I take from the Day 2 VC?

Day 2’s information isn’t on the face as rich as we have a wagon that develops strongly as the Day continues on scum (dana) with only 1 significant counter-wagon (SSBF).

Important Points in dana’s wagon

Initial Count -

Danakillsu

(3) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin

Xvart busses -

Danakillsu

(6) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

Before CSL loses vote -

Danakillsu

(10) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart,

LynchMePls,Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, CSL

At lynch - Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(12) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion, Unsight,

Rifka Viveka

Important Points in SSBF’s counterwagon

Initial Count - Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) - h

asdgfas

,

I Doubt it

,

LynchMePls

Next vote (same time-frame as xvart’s bus) - Super Smash Bros. Fan (4) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it,

LynchMePls

, Unsight

LMP moves to Dana - Super Smash Bros. Fan (6) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it

, Unsight, CSL

, Rifka Viveka

, MacavityLock

Counter wagon tops out - Super Smash Bros. Fan (7) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it

, Unsight, CSL,

Rifka Viveka

, MacavityLock,

danakillsu

Regarding the Lannisters –

If any Lannisters remain xvart’s bus combined with IDI and dana’s coordination leads me to believe that the remaining Lannister(s) would be found either very late on dana’s wagon or completely off the wagon.

Players late on the wagon – Unsight, CSL (until his vote was removed)
Players never on wagon who pushed SSBF – Mac (also voted Muki and vezo in similar fashion to dana), diddin
Players never on wagon who did not vote for SSBF – Locke, Mina

Regarding the Greyjoys –

The NK of Raivann N1 makes the available data less useful. That said I would expect at least one other Greyjoy on the dana wagon. I also expect them to show up generally earlier given Percy’s quick vote for dana Day 2.

Players voting for Dana before xvarts bus and without voting others – Thor, Miku, Axelrod, Richard

This gives me the following Day 2 pools of interest –

Lannister – Unsight, CSL, Macavitar, diddin, Locke, Mina
Greyjoy – Thor, Muki, Axelrod, Richard

As with Day 1 I’m removing the following players from the pools –

Richard, Locke and Thor based on the exact same reasons as Day 1.
Macavitar – His play Day 1 put him in the potential Greyjoy pool. The result today is exactly the opposite so he’s on the back-burner as less likely either.

Final Day 2 pools of interest –

Lannister – Unsight, CSL, diddin, mina
Greyjoy – Muki, Axelrod

[MagnaofIllusion]

Continuing from my large posts yesterday –

Day 1 Pools of Interest –

Greyjoy only candidates - Macavitar, Muki
Potentially either team candidate - Mina, Unsight, Axel, CSL

Day 2 Pools of Interest –

Lannister – Unsight, CSL, diddin, mina
Greyjoy – Muki, Axelrod

A good deal of overlap in these groups. I’ve already made a fairly substantive assessment on Unsight so I’m not going to re-cover that here. As I stated with my Day 2 analysis I am moving Macavitar to the back burner.

Miku I’m going to look at from a Greyjoy interaction perspective (with Percy and Raivann). diddin I’m going to review from a Lannister interaction perspective (with xvart, dana, and IDI). Axelrod, mina and CSL will be reviewed from both perspectives.

Miku ISO and interaction review (Greyjoy) –

First off yes I did butcher Miku as Muki in my posts yesterday. Sue me.
ISO 5 – Supports Percy over xvart and DripHydra for Hand. Given how many others raised Percy for similar reasons I’d sum it as a null-tell. This post might actually serve more as a Lannister-tell in that he specifically votes for Percy (who had 1 vote to raise when he made it) over xvart (who had 3) with little differentiation in reasoning. More likely to be ‘protecting’ a scum-partner from the Hand scrutiny.

ISO 8 – Responds to a Percy softball question (coaching?) with some light suspicion, which he doesn’t follow up on, for Raivann’s slot.

ISO 11 – Votes Raivann for inconsistency on Kleedrac / Budja.

ISO 12 – Further elaborates on preference for Raivann over Kleedrac / Budja.

ISO 13, 18, 19 – Futher pressures Raivann.

ISO 20 – unvotes Raivann after the fake-vig claim.

ISO 23 – A little bit of rolefishing in interactions with Rifka I’m not a fan of.

ISO 30 – Answers another softball lob from Percy.

ISO 31 – A bit of potential buddying here from Percy to Miku (regarding his accusations against DripHydra’s inconsistent Raivann stance).

ISO 40 – Some more light interaction with Percy.

ISO 42 – Interaction with Locke regarding his scan of Percy is a little suspect.

In review of his ISO I’m not seeing strong evidence that Miku is likely Greyjoy. He pressured Raivann very consistently Day 1 (up until his claim). His interactions with Percy fall into what mina has mentioned earlier and I am calling ‘the friend zone’. Light interactions with very little pressure.

Suspicion of Greyjoy (STRONG / MEDIUM / MINIMAL) - Minimal

diddin / migwelloni / kinetic ISO and interaction review (Lannister) –

migwelloni – No interactions
kinetic – No interactions
diddin –

ISO 1 – states a scum read on both dana and SSBF with no support. Favors SSBF as more likely scum and drops and ISO case his next post.

ISO 6 – Softly supports dana lynch (I’d still rather lynch SSBF or dana) while posting no reasons or support for dana suspicions. Raises thoughts of classic fence-sitting here.

ISO 9 – ISO on Mac. Interestingly still has no direct interactions or questions to dana.

Day 2 ends with nothing no interactions with any Lannister and his ‘support’ for dana’s wagon.

Day 3 ends with no interactions or even mentions of xvart.

In review his soft ‘support’ for dana’s wagon while never questioning him or interacting with IDI or xvart make me suspect he’s a likely Lannister if any still are around. Reading through his ISO from KOL Mafia (where he was scum partners with Richard, Zhero, and Valeo) shows a different playstyle. He bussed Richard hard Day 1 and later votes for Valeo in later days. He has minimal interaction with zhero and valeo. Perhaps his play here is a reaction to the game results? Not definitive in my eyes.

Suspicion of Lannister - Medium

CSL / Hayker ISO and interaction review (both) –

Hayker – No Lannister interactions in 5 posts.

CSL –

ISO 0 – Initial reads put Percy as Town, Raivan and dana as scum. Never follows up on Raivann / dana reads Day 1.

ISO 6 – Depsite haven’t not mentioned him directly at all Votes for CMAR over his other two scum-reads. In time context this is before Raivann had claimed.

ISO 7 –“ I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now. Raivann can wait until tomorrow.” No questioning of either player to this point that would illuminate why this is the truth.

ISO 8 – In response to Mina says he would be happy with either CMAR or Raivann lynch. What happened to dana?

ISO 9 – Says Raivann’s claim is not clear (obvious) and that if CMAR flips scum Raivann is clearly scum. Reads as fairly confident that CMAR will flip Town and thus attempting to clear Raivann by proxy.

ISO 12 – Vote for Kleedrac / Budja Day 2 after they were NKed.

ISO 16 – next mention of dana in ISO after initial scum read. Here he simply HOS’s dana (the top wagon of the day)

ISO 17 – expressed willingness to vote dana as the deadline approaches.

@ Mina: I went from Raivann to CMAR because a lynch > No lynch.

Why I voted SSBF and HOS'd dana? dana has done nothing but talk useless crap, but is at least trying to go the other direction. SSBF is MUCH MUCH worse.

The answer to Mina doesn’t seem accurate as he never voted for Raivann.
Further fence-sitting on dana.

ISO 22 – Puts dana at L-2. Late bussing?

ISO 24 – Claims he sees AtE in a dana post.

ISO 25 – Claims with minimal wagon.

Somewhere near this ISO CSL gets stabbed and loses his vote / powers.

ISO 29 – Offers to ‘sacrifice’ himself to Day 3 lynch if dana is lynched today. Attempt to earn town cred when he knows dana is scum?

ISO 37 – Refers to Percy as a Town read and congratulates ‘whoever’ shot him. Potential ‘congratulate the doc’ style post.

ISO 42 – Claims 37 is a result of not reading the thread.

In review theres little interaction here with either side. The manner in which his initial scum-reads on both Raivann and dana are not followed up on and his lack of general interaction with ANY know scum lowers my overall scum suspicion. I would expect if he were either side he would have been more aggressive with his Day 1 play for whichever scum he would not be partners with. I’m leaning on disinterested / poor Town play.

Suspicion of Lannister – Minimal
Suspicion of Greyjoy – Minimal

Axelrod – ISO and interaction summary (both) –

ISO 2 – Statement that Raivann isn’t obv scum yet.

ISO 13 – Large post comparing Kleedrac / Budja to Raivann. Says Raivann is worse of two but will not vote for either until he ‘finishes his review’. His next string of posts deal with a case LMP put together on him. Never questions either Kleedrac or Raivann.

ISO 17 – Votes for CMAR. No mention of either Kleedrac / Budja or Raivann. Notes that CMAR has 7 votes to Raivann’s 6 (they would have been tied before his vote). In context this is well before Raivann’s claim.

ISO 20 – States Raivann has 12 votes so it is claim time. Does not state any intention to vote for him. Laying the groundwork for scum-partner’s fake claim?

Raivann's death restores my faith in the order of the Universe. At least, if nothing else, it still remains true that a scum who claims Vig. is torching himself. I think it also establishes (if it wasn't the case already) that the scum have false-claims provided to them, as I doubt that Raivann claims Beric on a stone cold bluff.

This statement regarding Raivann’s death strikes me as a ‘Congratulate the vig’ style post. SSBF caught flack for saying that Raivann’s GF flip was a good thing. This reads very similarly.

ISO 29 – The sudden interest in dana (after no mention at all Day 1) and accompanying case reads as possible Greyjoy supporting Percy’s early push. In context this is the fourth vote on dana when SSBF has three.

ISO 31 – further pressure applied to dana.

ISO 42 – states that dana’s lynch is inevitable based on end of day approaching.

ISO 44 – Suggests Percy as a good candidate for the free scan along with a few others.

I also note that I Doubt It himself referenced julien's "case" against SSBF in his very first post of Day 2 - in fact encouraged others to seek it out. So I suppose I have to acknowledge that the "Lannister" team could have simply been trying to set up SSBF with that kill.

Pretty strong evidence in my mind that Axel isn’t a Lannister. I highly doubt that he would specifically link IDI (who was under little scum suspicion) to a frame attempt on SSBF.

ISO 63 – Labels xvart as a Town read.

In summary – little interaction directly with any flipped scum. His strange behaviour regarding Raivann has been pointed out previously. His early vote on dana and ISO 46 indicate to me that he isn’t a Lannister.

Suspicion of Greyjoy – Between Medium and Strong

Mina – ISO and interaction summary (both) –

ISO 3 – Questions Percy and Raivann (well his slot).

ISO 4 – FOS on dana for sheeping. No follow-up in the near term on this. Distancing?

ISO 11 – Questions Percy about his raise of xvart. Questions me about my raise of Axel and posts a quote from dana doing the same while not questioning her directly.

ISO 12 – Asks for scum meta from Percy.

ISO 13 – Votes Raivann without significant interactions with him. Promises more details later.

ISO 14 – Questions Rivka about her beliefs on IDI’s Benmage case.

ISO 16 – Questions Raivann regarding information from the previous Mini and dana regarding a post towards Raivann.

ISO 19 – Some strong questioning of Raivann.

Leaving aside the replacement fodder, I personally think vezopiraka (although his play makes him pretty much unreadable), Raivann, and the Migwelloni/Kinetic slot is scummier. And I have issues with Rivka, Benmage, I doubt it (his recent post was really wishy-washy), Kleedrac to a certain extent, Cow, and danakillsu. Agreed that Richard's current inactivity after he wriggled out of the lynch is annoying, though.

Mentions suspcions of IDI with no previous questioning or followup … just ‘suspicion’. Reads as distancing.

ISO 24 – Questions Percy about the Kleedrac / Budja and Raivann wagons.

ISO 25 – Question to dana about a previous post.

ISO 28 – Large analysis post on Percy regarding previous scum games.

ISO 29 – Favors Raivann over a CMAR or Kleedrac / Budja lynch.

ISO 30 – First appearance of xvart interaction. Does not question xvart but piggybacks on a xvart comment re DripHydra.

ISO 37 – Apologizes to Raivann after his Vig claim. Fear as Mafia that Raivann as Vig might hit her? If so heavily indicates she can’t be Greyjoy.

ISO 41 – Suggests that Raivann’s best shot at vigging is CSL or diddin / Kinetic.

You know, since CMAR is a revealed bulletproof and so many people are deadset on lynching him, lynching him is better than no lynch. If people are going to turn on him anyway, might as well get a flip on him today. But to be honest, I feel as though he's town.

Town shouldn’t be pushing for a Town BP to be lynched. Especially given the ease with which the Vig claim by Raivann was accepted.

ISO 44 – Another interaction with xvart that is non-questioning regarding CMAR’s claim and breadcrumbing. Suggests that kinetic / diddin is a likely buddy if Percy flips scum.

Percy, I'm curious. What gave you that townread of xvart? You held onto it even after he was inactive for a while. I'm asking because I find xvart hasn't been as townish as he was in the mini. I also find that although he hasn't committed scumtells, he doesn't seem to have much passion or conviction. He's just a giant null.

Questions Percy’s read on xvart as Town. States she doesn’t share the read but has not questioned him at all. Distancing?

One point against Richard is that Loras hasn't claimed yet.

Why should Loras, the player who has the kill in the Triggered Scenario, claim? That’s not a Town thought process as it would lead to a likely NK on Loras before Richard died (which ended up happening anyway).

ISO 47 – Suggest four vig targets for Riavann (Budja, Vezo, Kinetic / diddin, and CSL). Further pushes for Loras claim.

ISO 48 – Attacks the dana wagon for poor logic and because dana is “not the brightest bulb”. Futher pushes CSL in dana’s place.

ISO 52 – Further attempts to dismantle wagon on Dana (using proper logic that dana isn’t likely buddies with Raivann).

ISO 52 – Questions xvart as to whether he feels dana and SSBF are Village Idiots.

ISO 54 – Quotes an AtE post by dana as ‘sounding Town’. Also contains a defense of her own claims that she is ‘playing poorly’ made by Percy and Locke. Further meta / claim support to not lynch dana.

At this point in the ISO we are into Day 3 and much of Mina’s posts revolve around the Kingsguard info and her back and forth with Cow.

ISO 73 – Discussion with xvart about the potential kill flavour issues and supports xvart’s assertion that CSL’s reaction to the Percy vig is scummy.

ISO 92 – Asserts at N1 that xvart ‘didn’t look all the Pro-Town’ in suggesting he not be part of the Kingsguard. Yet had no interaction of significance Day 1 with xvart. Distancing in the QT?

In summary – the interaction with Percy and Raivann make me doubt that she has any chance of being a Greyjoy. The lack of interaction with xvart and IDI (despite several times suggesting they are suspicious / not Townish) strengthen my feeling she is a potential Lannister. Here push Day 2 agains dana’s wagon is a double edged sword. I find generally Town are more likely than scum to argue against a scum lynch, but there is heavy WIFOM involved.

Suspicion of Lannister – Medium

[MagnaofIllusion]

What is my take away?

THere are strong candidates for scum of both affiliation. I’d rather be looking for Greyjoys at this point as opposed to Lannisters as I’m not certain the Lannister faction wasn’t finished last Night.

Of those likely to be a Greyjoy Axel is my most strong read on that account.

I’d rather he and Unsight be lynched today instead of SSBF.

Since there is no support for Unsight at this point I’m going to commit my vote to

UNVOTE: Unsight
VOTE: Axelrod

Responses to comments –

I wish people would stop making analyses that rely on me being scum. I've already done everything short of word for word quoting my role PM and it's not a scum one. The possibility of me being scum doesn't exist, so planning around that is wasted time that could be going toward lynching SSBF and MagnaOfIllusion.

More lack of scum-hunting and pointless “I’m Innocent” statements. I don’t get why the pressure has flowed right off you after yesterday.

Personally, I prefer looking at partner interactions to vote count analysis. So for example, Mikujin is almost certainly not a Greyjoy because of his interactions with Raivann, so the fact that he coincidentally fell into a category of early dana voters is irrelevant.

As you can see the VC analysis was a starting point for my interaction summary made today. And the fact that Miku fell into both potential Greyjoys pools made it worth my time to ISO him.

For example, why are you assuming the Greyjoys would all be early on dana's wagon and not on SSBF's? To them, a dana and SSBF lynch would be interchangeable, now that we know SSBF wasn't a Greyjoy. I know Percy himself said he thought that early dana voters were likely to be Greyjoys (and I find it a Greyjoy tell that you stumbled upon this same theory, since you could have discussed pushing this in your QT). But I highly doubt he'd say something like that if BOTH of his partners were early dana voters. He gets no town cred for indirectly steering town's attention their way.

Where did I say all the Greyjoys must be early? I didn’t. I said that if we want to find one of Percy’s partners that is the best place to look.
I'm not looking to cover every possibility. I wanted to dig where I thought there was most likely scum to be found.

Also, why didn't you use the same reasoning from D1 (that people who weren't on most of the popular wagons are more likely to be scum) for your Day Two analysis?

Because both Days are very different. Day 1 featured multiple strong wagons, several of which we know to be of differing alignments. Day 2 featured 1 dominant wagon and a strong secondary wagon. Applying the same principals of VC analysis to days that were very different in make-up would not be a good analysis method, IMO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Eddard didn’t mention my V/LA for the weekend that I can see.

Don’t have tons of time right now but will drop a couple of things of import into the thread right now.

Claim

– Hodor, Innocent Aligned.

I’m a loyal and brave Stark servant who works in the stable. My large frame (thought to be created by Giant blood in my ancestors) is imposing, but my simple minded nature makes me but Vanilla.

As I often do in complex Theme Games (see Victorian Vampire or Weeds Mafia) I prepared a breadcrumb Day 1.

H

ow does this qualify as anything but filler?

O

r do you think Richard’s claim is more credible given the fact that it is flavour correct?

D

isagree with your conclusion as I said in the quote – it was simply an observation that admitting to a behaviour does not inherently make it less suspicious.

O

rdinarily parroting is generally considered a not pro-town move.

R

elative to this circumstance SSBF admitted to the behaviour, regardless of whether he cross-posted or not.

The first letter of the first five lines spells HODOR. The awkwardness of the construction of that post should have been a clear tip if anyone was looking.

On the Case against Mac –

Being tracked to a dead body tends to be pretty damning. See [REDACTED] as a perfect example of why. That said I have a few glaring things that make me very much doubt he is a Lannister.

1. The nature of the claim he has made himself flies in the face of logical assumption of it being a fake-claim. He would have had to gambled about the name of a specific source material person who was not already dead to construct his Masonizer claim. If he mis-fires and that person isn’t in the game he’s dead. At this point in the game a Mass Claim is pretty much assured to confirm that Brienne existed. Any number of other claims (such as Tracker or any other weak information role) would have been easier to concoct.
2. The nature of the Lannister kill N4 makes it HIGHLY unlikely that the last Lannister feels they can easily be POEd at endgame. They chose to kill not Locke (who could potentially end their chances of winning with a single scan), Thor (likely Town with the proven Daykill) or Cow (100% confirmed) but Miku. So the last Lannister has to be someone who didn’t fear the possibility of being scanned and didn’t feel the need to lower the ranks of the confirmed or near confirmed Town. Mac certainly doesn’t fall into this category.

The last Lannister is likely either diddin (who has already been scanned) or someone generally considered clear but not confirmed directly (Richard or Mina).

I’ll be back to defend against whatever cases I see come my way late Monday or Tuesday.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Richard

– Other than Mac who do you suspect as possible Lannisters or Greyjoys? I’d like your Top 2 suspects for each please.

That said, I need to step up my game if I'm going to live through it.

If you are Town who has just played a horrible game you needed to do this 3 Days ago.

Listen, if you guys do lynch me, we'll end up in that 4-1-1 scenario tomorrow (assuming no cross-kills). That's a LYLO scenario.

No that’s not quite accurate. It’s not LYLO for a number of reasons. If from 4-1-1 if scum isn’t lynched that would leave 3-1-1. No cross kills puts the last Town in a Kingmaker scenario. But that assumes no crosskills. So a mislynch today isn’t optimal but doesn’t immediately cause LYLO the next day.

Thank you so much for claiming to be the last Greyjoy, MagnaofIllusion. You're saving us a lot of trouble. I know you're screwed by process of elimination if we lynch MacavityLock today.

Yes, this is the type of case I was looking forward to defending against

If Mikujin is a Watcher, then killing Locke guarantees that you lose the game tomorrow. Mikujin had obviously watched Locke on N3, and would watch him again on N4.

So you are saying that Miku would be watching Locke to make sure that he saw his own partner kill Locke on the off chance of a doubled up kill would net the other scum?

And killing a confirmed player would've been an even worse move. Mikujin won't be any less dead on N5. That would give Locke not one, but two extra investigations. The watcher had to die, especially since the Lannister roleblocker was dead.

If the Lannisters were afraid of Locke they would have killed him last Night. A name cop is a death sentence to scum with both Godfathers dead. You are stating the a weak information role (Watcher) was more deadly to the last Lannister than a strong information role (Name Cop). I disagree wholeheartedly.

The lack of attack on Locke by the Lannisters clearly indicates the last Lannister didn’t have any fear of being Name Copped.

So is that your plan if ML is lynched today, Magna? Lynch CSL and Unsight, then leave me and Richard until LYLO and try to get one of us to lynch the other. You may just have a chance.

My plan? Well my plan is to lynch the remaining scum. Glad you decided to post what amounts to far-fetched nonsense in an a further back-handed attempt to smear me.

When you have all these ‘tells’ and are read to post them so I can actually make an argument against facts instead of innuendo I’m ready.

MoI, now is your last chance to change your story. Is there any reason--ANY reason at all--why you'd lie as town about your role?

I’ve given you the truth. If you don’t believe it that’s fine. I expect the uncleared Innocents are going to be run through via lynch or via Daykill (if Thor has any remaining) at endgame once there is only 1 scum-team left.

When you saw Cow's first "Hey, guys! Macavitar is scum. Fullclaim, please!" what did you think Cow's role was? What information did you think Cow had?

I thought he had some sort of weak information role. One that wasn’t 100% assured of accuracy. Otherwise he wouldn’t have bothered requesting the claim.

I kinda have issues with that, as we have the Kingsguard, which is another night talk group. Seems like a lot of night talking.

I understand your line of thinking but based on the revealed set-up I have to disagree. Town appears to have redundancies in most major role areas.

Vig – Thor (Daykill), Budja (Assassin, whatever that was) and JVW (Triggered Vengeful)
Information – Locke (Name Cop) and Cow (Tracker)
Protection – Axel (Doc) and Benmage (Jailkeeper)
Night Talk – LMP (Mass Neighborizor) and Mac (Masonizer) ?

The dichotomy between the Kingsguard (mass QT with alignment not confirmed) and Mac’s claimed role (single Mason group with confirmed alignment upon activiation) seems plausible to me.

Oh god Macavatar is already going into AtE territory. Once Unsight/MoI post I am voting.

Quite eager to lynch Mac I see.

I’m not sold that Mac is the last Lannister as I have explained before. His claim is so specific and would be such a gamble that I don’t see him going that way, even if he gets Mod assistance as Mina has suggested. For me the last Lannister is either diddin or Mina, as shown by my partnership analysis yesterday. I also think the last Greyjoy is in the same place my vote has been for the majority of the last Two days – Unsight.

VOTE: Unsight

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI: I can give you scumreads, but they won't be team-specific because I'm just not that guy.

Then give them. I think it bears repeating that you’ve cruised by on your ‘confirmed’ status all game and we are at the point where everyone needs to be providing input if they are Town.

I'm not sure why people dislike that I'm putting pressure on MagnaofIllusion.

I doubt anyone dislikes that I am under pressure. If anything the distate probably stems from the vitriolic nature of your comments and the aggression that you are suddenly displaying. It is certain a far cry from your ‘I suck at this game, my reads stink’ theme you were playing to the hilt earlier. It’s quite a strange change of pace.

There's lots that makes me itch about MagnaofIllusion's most recent post, but first I'll point out this whammy.

I've been meaning to call you on this since Day One.

Here you are. ISOs 13 and 14. MagnaofIllusion's reactions to CMAR's two-shot BP claim.

Cow can confirm that I've been concocting elaborate theories involving Magna being a SK or being a BP Greyjoy (and being the role on the Greyjoys that replaced the roleblocker on the Lannisters, since I'd thought Mikujin was town).

It looks like you were planning to set up a roleclaim (or thought that CMAR was a BP SK or BP member of the other scumteam), but ended up abandoning it after CMAR flipped town.

This is your whammy? Let me just direct you to a pertinent link

BP in AGoT.

I’m not an idiot. I do my homework to the extent possible. Since reading multiple volumes of a fantasy series wasn’t practical for me I did the next best thing – read the previous game. The manner in which Faraday explicitly used the mechanic in the Mini Theme I expected (and was correct) that he would use here. So when CMAR claimed BP out of the blue without the piece about notification it was worth questioning.

Now my turn to ask you a question –

If this is such the smoking gun of my guilt why didn’t you bring it up earlier? Town has no reason to specifically leave rocks unturned. In fact your ISO is littered with statements along the lines of ‘I need to check into that’.

wrong as my suspicions were, I think I'm really, really obviously town in the Kingsguard QT. Far more so than I am in the game thread.

This is the sort of statement that rubs me the wrong way. Why can’t you be obv-Town in thread? I have every reason to believe Cow (if not to trust his judgements) but stating that your Town play shines through in a subforum that only one other player can access isn’t compelling to me. It’s much easier to be ‘Town’ when only one set of eyes is there to examine your statements. Much easier to tailor your posts to his ‘tastes’. Given your statement about 'disliking smart players who are not obv-town" why shouldn't I and others distrust you?

Magna, any response to Mac's calling you on going from "No one put anyone at more than four votes!" to "Let me put Axelrod to L-1"? I mean, considering you think he's town and all, he probably deserves an answer.

That’s not exactly what I’m being accused of. Macavitar is attacking me on two fronts.

1. That I didn’t follow HIS statement not to put someone above four votes.
2. He’s characterizing that I didn’t follow my FOS suggestion and voted for Axelrod.

My response is as follows –

1. Despite the fact that I believe he is Town I don’t find his word ‘law’. I quite honestly didn’t even recall that he wrote it until he bolded that passage in his accusation.
2. No-one at all, even Mac himself, commented favourably on my suggestion so I dropped it.
3. I voted for Axel because he was (based on my partnership work) likely to be scum and Unsight was not going to be a viable lynch for unknown reasons.
4. I can’t be a scum-buddy setting up CSL for the quickhammer. Does you think I deviously conspired to put my vote right next to Miku (despite the elaborate Greyjoy distancing going on) in hopes some stupid Town player would hammer (or hoping the Lannisters would)?

Also, didn't you say on D4 that you thought diddin wasn't a Lannister (for the same reason you'd thought MacavityLock wasn't one--you didn't believe all four of them were on the Richard mob)?

That's not accurate. Here’s what I wrote regarding diddin my VC analysis of Day 1.

Diddin – Only appears as a suspected Greyjoy list in the above VC analysis and Locke’s has represented his role name would not be Greyjoy aligned.

Here’s my Day 2 VC analysis impression of diddin -

Lannister – Unsight, CSL, diddin, mina
Greyjoy – Muki, Axelrod

Diddin was clearly in the pool of Lannister suspects. And here’s my blurb from the partnership analysis.

In review his soft ‘support’ for dana’s wagon while never questioning him or interacting with IDI or xvart make me suspect he’s a likely Lannister if any still are around. Reading through his ISO from KOL Mafia (where he was scum partners with Richard, Zhero, and Valeo) shows a different playstyle. He bussed Richard hard Day 1 and later votes for Valeo in later days. He has minimal interaction with zhero and valeo. Perhaps his play here is a reaction to the game results? Not definitive in my eyes.

Suspicion of Lannister – Medium

So no, a single comment regarding his Day 1 VC isn’t an accurate portrayal of my thoughts. Clearly I think diddin is potentially the last Lannister (along with you). But looking at the ISO would have showed you that.

I already mentioned that you and Percy came to the same conclusion about Greyjoys being early on the dana wagon. Now that Mikujin has flipped, it turns out it wasn't an evil scheme to lead us away from the real Greyjoys, but it still smacks of too much of a coincidence...particularly you never gave a good reason for why you thought the best place to look was on the early dana wagon and not on the early SSBF wagon when both should be equivalent to a Greyjoy.

So it is impossible for me to come to a logical conclusion shared by a player independently? If you think so that’s fine. I can’t exactly argue against an argument that sums to “I think it can’t be coincidence”. Especially since my thought process was correct to the extent that Miku was right there.

Another one is both you AND Mikujin try to push the theory that we're not in a 4-4-1 on D4.

Again, I can't argue that it's too much coincidence. Can you explain the scum motivation I would have for that? Because SSBF’s history of killing scum would certainly make remaining scum more likely to argue for his continued life.

What happened to the ‘grand distancing’ theory you were just expounding? I’m curious because when it favors your argument I probably was clearly distancing. When it doesn’t I’m leaving easily found scum-links everywhere.

It doesn't seem like an obvious conclusion at all. I know I'd assumed the teams were symmetrical after two godfather and two goon flips. What's wrong with multiple blocking roles when one of them is town-aligned? After Mikujin's Watcher flip, I think that the scum teams are asymmetrical. So it looks like you knew the Greyjoys didn't have a roleblocker.

So again – I can’t have a theory that now looks to be correct without it being inside knowledge. The reason it didn’t make sense to me then (and still doesn’t) is that 3 separate dedicated RB roles (2 scum RBers and 1 Town JK) seems heavy even in a 20 some player game.

Here you are. You're thinking like a Greyjoy.

See the game from the perspective of either a townie or a Lannister-aligned player, who has no idea that Mikujin is a Greyjoy.

I have no clue who Mikujin really watched last night. That's completely irrelevant to the point I was making. But do you deny that he hadn't watched Locke on N3, given his behaviour? Do you deny that the obvious target for a watcher, after a doctor had just died, would be the cop again on N4?

Now, imagine that you're a killer.

Who do you think the town-aligned Watcher who'd watched Locke last night is going to watch this night?

I’m making arguments from the obvious hindsight of knowing Miku was Greyjoy.

I’ve never denied that it appears Miku watched Locke N3. From a Town perspective watching Locke makes sense.

But your argument is very much from a skewed prespective. The concept of a Greyjoy RB has been put out in thread multiple times. The Lannister, going into N4, has no idea if it is correct or not. They are the last member of their Squad. A successful scan of them ends any chance at victory. So you are arguing that the Lannisters must assume a let Locke live and hope the Greyjoys do the 'dirty' work. Why then, from a perspective of going into Night 4, wouldn't the Lannisters think the Greyjoys are in a similar situation regarding being Watched and thus expect a Miku kill from the Greyjoys? It would not end their chance at victory but is still a very valid concern (from a perspective that doesn't know Miku is Greyjoy).

In summary ascribing detailed motivation to the last Lannister without direct knowledge of why they acted like they did is WIFOM.

So should I accuse you of thinking like a Lannister?

Answer this honestly. Did you figure out that Mikujin was a watcher (and not some other "weak" information role) on D3?

His crumbing of watcher / tracker was there. His exchange with Axel regarding his knowing what happened to Locke on N3 nudged me further along the path that Axel was scum after Miku voted for him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna - to make sure I understand where you're coming from. Your contention is that Macavitar is not scummy and that Mina is scummy?

My contention is that I don't think Mac is the last Lannister. I haven't dug into his ISO for partnership analysis but his claim just doesn't sit well with me as a fake-claim. Here's my reasoning -

1. Cow declares him scum and asks for a full-claim.
2. Mac claims a rather complex and specific role.

We are all pretty much assured by Raivann's claim that scum have access to fake-claims by the Mod. That said Mac would be taking a huge risk in claiming limited Masonizer. He's claiming a character blind. Mass claim was an inevitability at this stage with so many roles already outed. If he claims a role not in the game he's toast. I don't know the source material from Adam but that's a pretty steep chance in my eyes. If he wanted to fake-claim could be any other number of role variants he could claim that would explain his being Tracked to Miku without rolling the dice that his 'target' isn't in the game. This coupled with the duality of Town's roles lead me to think he's not the last Lannister. And the track makes him not the last Greyjoy either.

As for my sniping with Mina - I've gotten drawn in to playing tit-for-tat with her. I do think she's potentially the last Lannister. My partnership analysis highlights this. Also the vitirol she has exhibited since I made the case for her as the Lannister twinges my gut.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have role-confirmed iron-clad belief that Mina is 100% triple-A not Greyjoy.

If and when the appropriate time comes you will have to explain this. Since you have claimed tracker I can’t see how you could conclusively clear Mina since there hasn’t been a single night where there were less than 2 Greyjoys so far. Lack of following her to a target when she has partners isn’t exactly clearing.

That said I don’t think she’s a Greyjoy anyway given how many were already on the Kingsguard (Percy and Raivann).

I'm just having a hard time believing he was jailkept or roleblocked the night he targeted hasoasiulklkgs - what are your thoughts on that?

The odds do look rather long on that account. That said based on Benmage’s ISO I can’t rule out the possibility that he may have blocked Mac Night 3. I'm never going to rule out something just because the odds are long. Look at Victorian Vampire Mafia - Spyrex kept hammering that that he couldn't possibly be a Godfather since he was scanned Town and Night 1 a miller had been scanned. He kept saying it was so unlikely it couldn't have happened. And yet it's exactly what did happen - the Cop scanned both roles that have scan altering abilities back to back N1 and N2.

MOD

– I’ll be V/LA after 4pm EDT until sometime Monday for my usual family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from V/LA and see not much has happened over the Holiday weekend –

So Magna, what do you think about Unsight's #2218? Do you agree with me that it's more likely to come from town or a Lannister than a Greyjoy? Also, what do you think about my point that Unsight's pushing CSL over Axelrod makes him a less likely Greyjoy?

Second thing first – regarding your point about Unsight pushing CSL I find it unconvincing. As I stated before you rely heavily on the premise that the Greyjoys have been masters of distancing themselves until it doesn’t suit your needs.

What alignment of player does 2218 come from?

I can see it coming from the last Lannister. Mac isn’t Greyjoy based on Cow’s results. Pushing hard for a mislynch on Mac would serve the Lannisters well as it pushes Town closer to Kingmaker.

I can see it coming from the last Greyjoy if they feel they can survive the presented 3 Day gauntlet.

I can see it coming from concerned Town wanting to avoid a mislynch that places Town closer to a loss.

I still think Unsight is scum and I don’t think it’s a Lannister (that’s you or diddin Mina). Thus I think he’s the last Greyjoy.

That is interesting. ISO 61 puts Miku in the Greyjoy pool and then ISO 62 puts him as "Minimal." Gotta wonder what changed in there.

Are you reading the thread at all? Did you not see that 61 was my VC analysis from Day 2 that established who I wanted to review and 62 is the post where I explain my Partnership review?

Do you think that throwing comments like this will move you down the Greyjoy suspicion ladder and make endgame easier for you?

And it's hard, because different people should be held to different standards. For example, I'd crucify Mac or MoI had one of them quickhammered a doctor, or tried to confirm themselves by this logic:

This is totally outside the scope of the game - This is a completely crappy attitude and the reason MS is rife with lurkers and players who play suboptimally on purpose. Holding players to different standards simply enables those who play poorly not to improve.

[MagnaofIllusion]

To be honest, I think I've been putting off thinking about this game because I haven't wanted to make the hard choice yet.

What ‘hard choice’ are you putting off?

I would like a paraphrase regardless.

I knew if I had to spell it out for you, then you would simply decline my request and quote what you said in response to Mina. :S

Why do you care? The only Town reason I can think is that you want to be sure that you believe Mac’s claim is fake. And if that is the reason Cow’s statement that he has no Mason knowledge should suffice. Both Lannisters and Greyjoys have had Godfather flips so the possibility of a false scan on Cow is no-existant.

So, there's either going to be one of the uncleareds not scumhunting, or one of the uncleareds might be dealing with some sort of cognitive dissonance of actually thinking that person X is scum while trying to get person Y lynched. If you can find any sort of evidence or read of that, that might be a great scumtell at some point. I kind of worry that Magna is showing signs of this as regards me.

Care to explain how I’m showing signs of that in regards to you? I’m not trying to get you lynched since I think your claim is too specific and fragile if Briene was not in the game. I’m not stating I think you are scum – that group falls to Unsight (Greyjoy) and Mina / diddin (Lannister). And finally I am voting for the person I think is scum – Unsight.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Mod

– I highly doubt that in 2302 I have suddenly acquired 20 bonus votes. Either that or Unsight is lynched 4 times over.

I love how Mina is the center of this game's universe.

Despite the snarkiness I can understand where this is coming from. Besides Richard the two closest things to confirmed Town we have are Cow (100% confirmed) and Thor (mostly confirmed by proven Dayvig ability). I really am surprised that these two aren’t leading the discussion today.

-You realize that there's a huge gap between your explanation for Unsight's motivations if he's a Greyjoy and if he's some other alignment? You show that his behaviour is optimal for a Lannister and town...but a Greyjoy would behave that way if he thought he could survive three lynches. Do you really think that you, me, AND CSL would be lynched before him? (Mind you, now I'm second-guessing myself and coming up with explanations for his behaviour...but I'll keep them to myself for now.)

Yes I realize what you are suggesting. Let me ask you – why don’t you think it is a reasonable assumption from Unsight (as a Greyjoy) to make.

You don’t think he’s a Greyjoy. Since he was wagonned to claiming two days ago when Rifka got mislynched in his place at deadline the only person who has even looked twice at him is me. Sitting in his shoes I would realistically think I’m not a likely lynch.

And your surviving three lynches scenario is predicated, of course, on a scum lynch today. If Mac flips Town then barring a cross-kill Town only has 2 likely lynches to hit both scum.

On the subject of claims we know at least three fake-claims for scum – Raivann’s (Beric Dondarrion) , Percy’s (Lady Melisandre of Asshai) and SSBF’s (Arya Stark).

For those flavour savvy

– how significant are these characters in the book? And how does Ser Davos Seaworth compare significance wise?

Why exactly can't Unsight be a Lannister? ….. Weren't you the one who said he fit as one before? (You just hadn't reread him because you were so sure he was scum already.)

I can’t be 100% sure he’s not a Lannister. I did say he could likely be either when I did my relationship analysis back on Day 3. I should go back and look at him fresh since we have had two more flips. I guess I probably have time to do that before the Day ends.

No, you have been pretty consistent in stating that you don't think that I'm scum. With everyone else either thinking I'm likely scum, or at least wavering back and forth, your stance seems out of place. This is why I'm thinking that you might be exhibiting the whole cognitive dissonance thing I'm talking about. However, I can admit that this may be the everyone-thinking-I'm-scum paranoia setting in.

I don’t think you are using Cognitive Dissonance correctly here Mac. CD is when a player’s actions directly conflict with their stated opinions. If I said I thought you were Town but then hammered you when others (CSL, etc) were anxious to ‘move the day along’ that would be Cognitive Dissonance. Cognitive Dissonance isn’t having an opinion that is contrary to what’s ‘popular’. And I think you are overstating the fact that I am the only one who thinks you are Town. Thor also seems to be thinking in a similar line to me – that your claim is too detailed and fragile to be a fake-claim. Additionally Richard’s role connection with JVW where JVW’s role was provided in Richard’s role PM also provided the other bit I chewed that made me think you aren’t fake-claiming.

By the way, I'd still like to know what you would have done if CMAR hadn't claimed the BP-shot notification thing.

I’d have outright called it a fake-claim based on the notification tid-bit. That said at that point the realization that scum likely have some sort of mod provided fake-claims wasn’t evident until Raivann flipped.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Whatever, I don't care if I'm using the term exactly correctly. My point is that person X (who is scum) might actually think person Y is scum of the other team, but not say so in thread and not vote that way, so as to protect them.

So at this point your ‘scum-tell’ would apply to anyone non-confirmed who didn’t suspect someone else of being scum. Should CSL suspect that I am scum because I don’t think he’s scum?

And how would you know that the mods wouldn't have changed that between games?

I didn’t know for certain until after CMAR’s flip and his confirmation of the mechanic. But I think in general that Mods have a level of consistency in how they run things. Are you claiming it’s a scum-tell?

@MOD

– I’ll be V/LA as usual until Monday for my regular weekend family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Is there a case for him besides the name claim? I think the name claim alone suggests he's town.

I’ll point you here .

The speed that Unsight wagon grew is slightly unnerving. I would not argue with an Unsight lynch but Macavatar is still a better option for me.

How is this even a valid concern in the endgame when both scum teams are down to 1 member? There can’t be a concerted effort by scum to work together. Are you stating that both remaning scum suddenly jumped onto Unsight?

Given your concerns who of those who moved to Unsight in that 2 RL day period is likely scum in your eyes – Thor, CSL or Richard?

I prefer Magna as a Greyjoy lynch to Unsight personally.

Despite your slapped together ‘opinion’ that you don’t bother to support I’ll just chalk this up to the fact that I’ve been stating I think you are likely scum for several days.

No, my point is that people should look out for people acting weird, weirder than scum would normally act. In this game, the scum clearly had the ability and desire to scumhunt for those of the opposing scum team. Right now, they probably no longer do, and probably want to specifically hunt town as opposed to just anybody not on their scumteam. And that's something that people can keep an eye out for.

So you would suggest that everyone look for people acting weird and that scum trying to lynch Town is weird?

If you want to address that you think my suspicions that Unsight and diddin / Mina are scum is suddenly a new position please do so. Otherwise you are throwing around generalities. I also find the unspoken assumption that I am hunting Town by not suspecting you is not a thought process I would expect to be coming from Town. Now you are making me paranoid about my read on you.

Yes, I have a problem with you saying that you were willing to out-right call something a fake claim because of the structure of a role PM in a different game. Either it's using bad logic to call someone obv-scum, or you knew it was a flawed question at the time and you asked a question just to say that you were scumhunting, and have to cover for it now. And I don't like either of those things.

I disagree strongly that GMs don’t have tendancies and consistencies to the way they handle mechanics in their games. I want to go back and look at your reaction to how DripHyrda played Day 1. Because your statement that using bad logic to call someone obv-scum would seem to indicate that their Day 1 antics would draw your ire.

Re-read on Unsight coming tomorrow.

[MagnaofIllusion]

On the No Lynch

–

There are nine of us alive at this point. Generally I don’t think No Lynching outside confirmed MYLO is a good idea. The reasons I see being floated as to why we should consider it –

1. A Cross kill gives us a 6-1 advantage and thus 2 lynches and another No lynch to find the remaining scum via POE.
2. A double cross kill wins the game for us.
3. A double kill on a single Town player gives us a 6-1-1.
4. Possibly one or both scum are lazy or stupid and forgets to submit a kill.

I really don’t see options 2 to 4 as being very likely. Option 1 might work but is dependant on the scum accidentally cross-killing their opposite as I doubt they want to go to a 6-1 scenario when they could be in a 5-1-1 scenario.

Since the options for a No Lynch aiding us at this point seem slim I’m going to vote for who I think is scum.

Unsight Re-ISO

–

I already look at Unsight for Percy / Raivann and dana / IDI connections
here .

Summary of my thoughts on those interactions for Unsight –

Zero Raivann interactions and mild accusations towards Percy on Day 1 that he suddenly 180s on Day 2.
Day 1 early interactions with dana that disappeared Day 2. Had to be prodded to actually vote dana.

Looking at muki and xvart interactions –

In post 24 makes the following comments regarding Miku and xvart’s position on the growing dana wagon.

Percy - Percy's note that danakillsu was attempting to derail the Raivann wagon the most is spot-on. Drippereth is a close second with LMP coming in third.
Mikujin - Also ditto's Percy.
xvart - xvart is great. He spotted what almost looks like a scumslip by danakillsu's ISO 15.

This is interesting from a Lannister / Greyjoy standpoint. Buddies up hard to xvart. His assessment is Miku is dismissive (calling it a ‘ditto’) without calling him scum.

Also want to revisit the following statement from the same ISO –

I will support a danakillsu lynch, but not until the last 3 people explain what they're doing and why. Also, LMP is still scum.

The three people in question here were Vezo, Benmage, and CSL. Making your vote on a wagon dependant on a clear explanation from Vezo and CSL is giving yourself a reason not to vote the wagon.

ISO 25 – Again slightly buddies up to xvart.

ISO 64 – His colored read chart lists Miku as Town and xvart as Neutral.

ISO 70 – Another chart still lists Miku as Town.

Summary –

The limited interactions with both of them (no direct action, simply listing them in context of scumminess in multiple lists) don’t change my mind on his identity as the last Greyjoy as opposed to the last Lannister.

Looking at the dana wagon again I certainly can see why, as a Greyjoy, he was hesitant to join the wagon. Percy and Miku were already on there and plopping himself there would put all three remaining Greyjoys on the wagon.

My vote is going to stay where it is. I’d rather lynch scum as opposed to No Lynching and I don’t see much support for my other candidates (diddin and Mina).

OK, but this is a different mod (Faraday + Seacore vs Faraday), a different game type (Large theme vs Mini theme), different number of scum groups (3 vs 1), among many other differences. Being willing to be 100% confident strikes me as off.

Having Faraday assisted by Seacore as opposed to being the solo mod hardly qualifies as having a ‘different’ mod, especially in light of Faraday being the driving creative force, IMO.

What do this game being a Large versus Mini Themed game and the number of scum groups have anything to do with Faraday’s consistent use of BP conventions again?

Having enough confidence to call a claim fake doesn’t mean it’s 100% assured confidence. Its only in hindsight that my conclusions were proven correct.

Don't even pretend that's the same thing. DGB made her lists with no specific logic to back it up, and that kind of thing is part of her meta. Bad logic is very different from no logic. And you'll find attacks on bad logic all over my meta.

I disagree 100%. No logic at all isn’t excusable via meta regardless, IMO. And your assertion that it is Bad Logic doesn’t make it so. That’s simply your opinion.

Deadline is within 3 Days

– if as a group we intend to actually lynch other than Unsight (who is currently the closest to the gallows) we need to start moving in that direction soon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes hasdgbfsnjk. The flip of a Greyjoy roleblocker or the lack of the flip of one greatly affects the case on Mac. Since Mac being town relies on Ben JKing him, a flipped Greyjoy RB could change that quite a bit.

So you think Mac is the last Lannister but would rather hunt for the last Greyjoy to clarify the situation on Mac as Town?

If Mac isn’t the last Lannister who do you think is diddin?

I'm rather curious why the Unsight lynch came apart, as I've thought that was a good lynch for quite some time. Unsight seems to only pop in this game occasionally, and that is generally only to ward off suspicion or spout tinfoil hat theories about us being in a third scum team with SSBF.

Here’s my problem with this statement. It’s in direct conflict with the way your slot has voted.

1. As Cow’s statement shows you were one of the players who jumped off Unsight to lynch Rifka with the ever strong scum-hunting motive to “shake things up”.
2. Your slot hasn’t even looked Unsight’s way today.

You can’t logically be scum together so I think you need to put your head together with Maclock and come to a concensus on whether you think Unsight is scumm or not.

Or for all the unconfirmed townies to act townish. Seriously, is it that hard to look town when you're town?

The irony here makes my head explode. You who just earlier today made a big point of how much more Town you are in the hidden QT than in thread are lambasting others for not looking Town?

So I think I can finally pin down what's been bugging me about Magna.

You know what I think it is? How MagnaofIllusion keeps on reiterating that his suspect list is diddin/Mina = Lannister and Unsight = Greyjoy, that his suspect list has always been diddin/Mina and Unsight, that he is 100% consistent in his suspicions of diddin/Mina/Unsight, and his reasoning for suspecting diddin/Mina/Unsight had been clearly explained in ISO X on Day 4, so back off.

Seriously, if someone wants me to quote every time he does this today, I will. It's almost once or twice a post.

Not only does he use this as a defence every time someone looks at him funny (even when his suspicions of diddin/me/Unsight are barely related to the accusation against him), but he helpfully reminds us all that he's always suspected Y (as clearly laid out in ISO X on Day 4) every time he attacks Y.

It's like the flipside of the joke that inconsistency is a towntell. Rather than worry about such details as, you know, whether diddin, Unsight, and I are actually scum, he's more interested in proving the consistency of his reads.

Because maybe I'm just assuming everyone else is as neurotic as I am, but right now is when town should be floundering. Not saying, "I solved the game on Day 4, so here is my scum list."

This ticks me off. Big time. Just because you play the ‘little neurotic me game’ yourself doesn’t mean I should feel obliged to do the same. I’m not going to second guess my reads just because you waffle like you came straight for the Pancake House.

1. The bolded part is so much horse-shit it makes me gag. First of all it’s a huge mis-rep. I’ve never F’IN said I solved the game. I’ve said I’ve made my analysis and here are where my suspicions lie. I’ve been right and wrong at varying parts of the game. I was wrong about CMAR. I was right about dana. I believe I’m right about Unsight. I was wrong about Axelrod. Your playing up this as if I’ve telling Town exactly who to lynch and calling everyone morons for not doing it. Finally the fact that I've got 3 strong candidates for 2 scum slots somehow escapes your analysis. Hint - both diddin and yourself can't be the last Lannister. Yet somehow I'm saying I've solved the game by having two suspects.
2. You keep asking for proof of why my reads are right. Well sorry but what the hell proof do you expect? My VC analysis and relationship analysis are the proof I’m providing. If you don’t find it credible that’ fine. Just stop asking me for more proof.
3. This whole post is something that 'bugs you'. I'm still waiting to see how its 'proof' that I am scum.

You have spent the entire day repeatedly stating ‘I’ve got this huge case on Magna I just have to get to it’ and repeatedly having reasons not to present it. I’m tired of defending against your nebulous ‘cloud of proof of scum’.

But his "now you are making me paranoid" is one line tacked on to the end. Call it gut, but it rings false. I don't feel that Magna is really a paranoid innocent second-guessing himself.

Sarcasm … you fail to recognize it. That last line was indeed tacked on – its a sarcastic mimicry of the statement made by Mac.

This is just another example of you being so focused to find any ‘scum-tells’ coming from me you are ignoring the context of what is written.

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 4pm EDT until deadline for weekend family duties

.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Post please.

May change back.

How much bigger do I need to make my weekend V/Las til people notice them?

I’m not going to bother with the hackneyed ‘I was V/LA and thus clear of kills’ line of thinking I see here occasionally.

1. As Thor mentioned I could have sent in a pre-emptive list.
2. I carved out a couple hour chunk of time Saturday night to make some posts (as evidenced by my other games that were open).

Myself, Richard, and Thor are town for obvious reasons.

That leaves Mac Magna and CSL.

Mac is confirmed not Greyjoy and CSL is a highly unlikely Lannister. The ONLY way Mac can be town is if it's CSL Greyjoy/Magna Lannister, which I doubt. Assuming Mac is Lannister scum, that leaves CSL or Magna for Greyjoy, which I would prefer Magna as a lynch.

Funny but you look at it from my perspective you get the following –

Thor, myself and Richard are clear.

Mac is only possibly Lannister and I’m even doubting that. Cow’s death is so laden with WIFOM it doesn’t bolster any case against him.

That leaves you and CSL. You can’t be Greyjoy for flavor reasons. That means from my perspective POE means the scum are yourself as Lannister and CSL as Greyjoy.

I was going to lynch MoI in lylo anyways.

Here’s my question CSL – why do you assume I’d survive to LYLO to be lynched?

Can people please unvote so we can make this day work for us? There's a lot we have to do today. L-2 is basically a position where the scum can work together to end the day, if that's in their best interests. If I get lynched, there's every chance you'll end up in a 1-1-1 kingmaker scenario or a 2-1 LYLO tomorrow, and I'd like at least some chance to get us to lynch scum today.

Mac I’m not liking the following thought process I’m seeing.

1. CSL and Richard are voting for you.
2. You state that you are at L-2 and scum ‘can work together’ to quick-end the day.

By this logic you are assuming that CSL is Town. Because otherwise you’d only worry if you were at L-1. And yet in the same post you label CSL as potentially either clan and question Richard as to why he didn’t look at CSL.

First of all, nothing's really changed in regards to my claim. Brienne was in the game, I was looking for her. It all makes even more sense now that hascow flipped vanilla. I targeted hascow over last night to recruit, as was obvious, and the Lannister had to kill hascow last night no matter what, so that I continue to look dirty. There's no new information there.

Some WIFOM being spun here but it cuts both ways so it doesn't really change my opinion.

Mac – I believed your claim yesterday. Despite what I’m seeing above I still tend to believe you are Town. Its in your best interests to think very carefully about lynching me. My death pretty much seals the Kingmaker for you and thus ends your chance at victory.

VOTE: CSL– I have to choose from two confirmed (or 95% in my eyes) scum and I’d rather chose the scum who clears me from the number 1 suspcion (my being a Greyjoy) in my eyes.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Here's why CSL is confirmed not-Lannister.

The reasons Mina gave were …

1. She guarantees it and to remember after her death.
2. CSL couldn’t have picked up Vezo’s softclaim and other junk.

The only way Mina could be assured that CSL wasn’t Lannister is if she Tracked him on a Night when there was only 1 Lannister left, there was a Lannister kill, and CSL tracked no-where.

Looking back xvart died Night 3, so Night 4 is the only day that this could have happened. Yet Mina (via Cow) claimed a Track result on Macavitar that Day.

I don’t see that Mina’s role could have cleared CSL. If anyone has any reason to disagree with this logic please point out where I’m making a mistake.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I meant reasons as to why Magnascum is townier than I am.

Why isn't Magna lynched yet?

I think the appropriate, sarcastic response is –

Reasons. Now.

Perhaps the reason is no-one has ever bothered to make a case against me. Mina and I jousted over game-play point of view opinions. I’ve yet to see any real suggestion why I am a Greyjoy or Lannister that I could actually critique.

But yeah, Magna's guaranteed scum in my perspective.

Funny how this epiphany didn’t occur to you until Mac pretty much told you it should be the case.

To anyone who has doubts about CSL as the best lynch for today –

Read his last 4 or so posts. They just ooze frustrated Greyjoy.

He’s made it to last 6. Despite significant pressure in the first few Days he’s managed to lurk and sheep his way here. He can’t actually make a case on me so he’s resorting to appending scum to my name hoping that repetition will be enough to get the mislynch he needs. Because he knows that a Kingmaker scenario is his only shot at victory.

TO EVERYONE –

We need to hit scum today. I think a concensus over whether we should be targeting a Greyjoy or Lannister needs to be reached. For obvious self-serving reasons I think Greyjoy is the way to go and thus CSL should be the lynch. If we decide Lannister I’ll be supporting diddin to hang.

[MagnaofIllusion]

CSL, if you are town, you are voting for someone who is not guaranteed scum over someone who is guaranteed scum. You have 1 post to rectify this situation.

Interesting reaction Mac. That said I have a question –

Why aren’t you voting?

The way I see it is this –

Richard and Thor will be the ones to settle the Greyjoy versus Lannister debate and will probably drive the lynch. They are the closest to clear we have.

@CSL – Why do I get the feeling that your 2508 is just a pale copy of my response to you at 2504? And why interestingly are you attacking him when he hasn’t even voted yet? Attempting to get your vote on him so you can claim OMGUS if he does vote you?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I was just pointing out what diddin thinks. Did I say those were my thoughts? No.

Magna is obvGreyjoy, while Mac is most likely Lannister.

ITT we learn the CSL is taking advice on how ot "play well" from recent MD threads.

In all seriousness you long ago lost the credibility you have to just rhetoric away to get someone lynched without anything remotely resembling a case backing your statements.

CSL is obvscum Greyjoy and diddin is most likely Lannister.

See how well that works?

Mod - I'll be V/LA as usual until Monday for normal family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If I'm lynched, town loses.

Votes. Off.

Mac's last post has a truncated quote in it.

Appeal to Fear noted. Seriously this is textbook – look at Sharkfinn in the recently completed Smash Bros Large Theme. Late in the game when under pressure he began stating that Town would lose if he was lynched. He snuck out of the lynch and when NKed flipped Mafia.

Magna's 6th post does reek of Greyjoy juice, but once I flip town, then the last townie gets to choose whether Greyjoy or Lannister wins.

If I was scum, I would've self-hammered by now.

More Appeals to Fear.

Care to show reasoning why my ISO 6 is scummy? Or should I simply respond by saying “Look at CSL’s ISO – nothing Town there pure Greyjoyscum at work”.

Why, as the likely last member of a Mafia team would you EVER self-hammer? That makes zero sense.

Look at the last few games I've been scum in. Seriously. I haven't self-hammered as town in a long time.

Give us context – when you self-hammered were you ever the last surviving member of a Team? Because if not your claim isn’t in equivalent situations, is it?

Why would you ever self-hammer as Town?

I’m getting quite tired of the CSL rhetoric that he’s not willing to actually support.

To Do

– Full ISO on CSL to demonstrate why he’s scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Correction - you are the Greyjoy scum. You were scummy from the start and continue to be scummy.

We can do this all day. The only difference is that I'm Town when I say it while you are scum when you do.

[MagnaofIllusion]

CSL’s Tour de Force ISO –

Exhibit 1

– Lack of scum-hunting. Seriously, read his ISO. If you can find any semblance of a case made please bring it to my attention. In general his ISO is mostly contained with a series of one to two line posts.

In ISO 1 he throws together a ‘case’ on Kleedrac and ends with this gem –

Conclusion: Distancing and OMGUS votes are scum strategies that this guy didn't close up all the way. This guy is scum. CASE CLOSED. Why the hell isn't he lynched yet?

1. The word distancing doesn’t appear anywhere in the ISO before this. How was Kleedrac distancing when we have no scum flips and he mentions not one of his other ISO 0 scum-reads in ISO 1?
2. OMGUS isn’t a scum-tell.
3. Not the rhetoric at the end? Sound familiar? Yet somehow that slot flipped Town.

ISO 12 – Votes Kleedrac even after his slot died Night 1. Shows a lazy approach to scum-hunting that is likely coming from scum.

ISO 19 – Called Benmage lurker-scum, and immediately retracted in ISO 20. More lazy scum-hunting.

About the guilty claim on Percy: Didn't read the thread.

Kinda hard to actually scum-hunt when you don’t even read the thread.

After 42 I challenge you to find a post that shows accusations against a player that isn’t a simple 1 or 2 line post with no support.

Exhibit 2

– Greyjoy interactions.

ISO 0 – Throws down a Town / Scum list on replace in that throws the Raivann slot as scum yet votes for Kleedrac.

Later in ISO 7, despite not having CMAR in his Town / Scum list from ISO 0 and only mentioning CMAR in his Kleedrac case he has a ‘bigger’ scum-read from CMAR and states Raivann ‘can wait’. This is before Raivann claimed.

After Raivann’s claim we get the following –

Raivann's claim is not safe to assume to be clear. We should keep a close eye on him during this game.

As it was said before, if CMAR flips scum, Raivann is obvscum

1. Reads as distancing from Raivann now that the claim has saved him.
2. Note the attempt to link CMAR scum to Raivann scum. Preparing to say Raivann might not be scum when CMAR eventually flips Town?

Nary any significant appearances by either Percy or Muki to be found.

Exhibit 3

– Catch-all other weirdness

An undercurrent of buddying in general – Read the ISO and look at the way he defers to veteran players like Drip and Mina.

ISO 25 – Claims at approximately L-9 a Vanilla role.

UNVOTE: SSBF
VOTE: Axelrod

Anxiety killed the Day.

Let’s not forget this gem – CSL hammers the Town Doctor without even asking for a claim. After seeing Muki flip watcher and tying in some statements Muki made alluding to seeing multiple people on Locke it makes sense why CSL-Greyjoy would want to hammer without giving Axel a chance to claim.

Wow. I actually thought you were going to lynch me for accidently hammering the doctor.

Times have changed.

Open acknowledgment that his move was scummy and he is shocked to not be lynched. Not a Town perspective.

Mac's claim is believable. This, I go back to who I think was scum in the first place.

Note the inconsistency here. Mac’s claim is believable until Unsight is lynched and suddenly at the dawning of the next day he immediately votes Mac with nary a word why he reversed his thinking.

Then we have this series of posts regarding myself –

Magna is scum?

I was going to lynch MoI in lylo anyways.

These both come from Today before Mac explained to CSL that if he was Town I had to be scum via PoE. Do they sound like someone 'sure' I am scum? Why would CSL-Town want to wait for LYLO for my lynch if I am scum? Yet after Mac points out the obvious logic to CSL suddenly I’m obvscum. The inconsistency is glaring.

And now CSL has spiralled into a wave of Appealing to Fear (lynch me and we lose) and rhetoric. Still no visible signs of scum-hunting from him.

In summary I think this pretty clearly spells out why I’m going to

Confirm VOTE: CSL

[MagnaofIllusion]

You know what, we both are going to argue anyways, while Mac coasts. I think we should rid him first, so it's down to You vs Town.

1. What happened to Mac's claim being believable (YOUR WORDS)?
2. Once again CSL demonstrates he doesn't truly think I'm scum and just want someone lynched so he has a shot at a Kingmaker scenario.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Not a lot of time now so I will make this short and sweet as I dispense with the facade ...

VOTE: Macavitar. This vote is NOT changing today.

I'm obviously the last Greyjoy and he is 100% certain to be the last Lannister.

How you ask? The night he claimed to 'visit' Percy with his fake-claim Mason action Muki was watching Percy and no-one visited Percy.

I'll explain all in more detail later when I have a chance.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Aw man, was I on the 'stupid town' list and thus didn't get killed? I hate you all.

No Thor. I specifically passed over you to kill the other ‘confirmed Town’ player because I respect your ability to reason and make sound judgement. In the case of a 3 player scenario versus Mac I thought I had a much better shot convincing you to chose me.

So Magna, no choice but to make an offer of a joint win: No Lynch just happened, so we night kill diddin, you night kill Thor. If we buck, that's a town win. So let's not buck, shall we?

If we end up with a No Lynch I agree to these terms. Town doesn’t deserve to win this game.

One of my first actions was going to be to ask about your lack of kill last night but VP has cleared that up. I can understand where you were coming from. To some degree I expect you were also ‘poisioning the well’ on the off chance I chose to take you out to make sure I couldn’t win. Good strategy, BTW. I almost chose to kill diddin over Richard on the same premise but after CSL’s hissy fit changed my mind.

Damn Magna, and I was on you all game, only to second-guess myself on that last day. Grr at CSL.

Really? This surprises me. I thought after the Unsight lynch that it was clear you had caught on that I was the last Greyjoy and thus why I was pushing so strongly for you as Town when the evidence against you was really quite damning. I figured like myself you knew you needed my kills until we could get to 4 or 3 players remaining after night.

I still can't believe we didn't lynch mac. He was obv scum. I'm gonna love reading the dead QT for this game.

Also, I WAS RIGHT YOU SONS OF BITCHESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS BUT NOBODY LISTENED TO ME

I honestly can’t believe Town didn’t lynch him after he was directly tracked to a kill target. I knew the minute he made his claim he was lying but I needed him alive until this point so I worked my tail off defending my ‘enemy’.

Read my Day 2 play in Supernatural Mafia if you want my Town position on players tracked to a dead body. Mac can con ‘himself’ lucky I was scum otherwise I would have driven his lynch through Day 5. Convincing claim or not you don’t ignore a result like that.

And no-one listening to you is your own fault diddin. This is the same lesson I imparted to Nobody Special after Harry Potter Mafia – your ability to sway your fellow players on Day 5 is built by solid-Town style play and scum-hunting Days 1-4. Quite frankly both youand CSL played scummy and didn’t build rep with your fellow players in those early days. And thus when it came crunch time you were not believed.

Also, wouldn't the scum who killed the other scum achieve total victory?

I appreciate what you are doing here Thor but you aren’t appealing to an audience that can be persuaded. This situation is a classic twist on the Prisoners dilemma.

If I defect I can achieve 1 of 2 outcomes – Complete victory for the Greyjoys or complete victory for Town.

If I follow the plan I can achieve 1 of 2 outcomes – Complete victory for the Lannisters or partial victory for both the Lannisters and the Greyjoys.

If my choice results in a victory for a faction not my own I am going to follow the path with the better overall expected outcome. And the path that leads to either a split victory or a Lannister win is preferable to a possibility of a Town win.

Town doesn’t deserve to win this game, IMO. Let’s be frank – Town only lynched 2 scum – one Serial Killer who was obvious and one Mafian whose lynch was driven by the other Mafia faction. The only other Mafian Town ‘caught’ and dealt with was Percy who was nailed by a Cop. If not for the massive cross-kills Town would most likely have been stream-rolled.

I respect the game Macavitar and the Lannisters not named danakillsu played much more than the overall Town game. Not to say there weren’t some excellent Town players. Thor you played solid. Locke and Benmage played well. If Mina wasn’t so stricken with streaks of doubt she could have been a Town MVP driving force. But those players have to be balanced by the other players who just didn’t play even a middling game.

I wouldn't want town to have to pick between you guys (despite your awesometacular fake-claim [though I imagine the Dead QT is bellowing obscenities at me about that now]) after all, you're both awesome for getting here and if I pick between you two then I'd be shafting the other guy. I think you should just play for the draw so neither of you is the loser.

I understand your thoughts here Thor but I want to be sure you will not reconsider this. I agree we have both played excellent games but think I can make a solid argument as to why between the two of us I should get the nod. If you are sure you’d rather see a draw (knowing with absolute certainty you were not going to get a Town win out of the No Lynch) I’ll send us to Night after seeing your response.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I guess Thor has settled it then.

UNVOTE: Mac
VOTE: No Lynch

The rest can be hammered out during post game.

Mac I'm counting on you to ice diddin as you stated in your plan.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, just finished the Dead QT - you people are nuts.

First I'd like to say Thanks and Congratulations to Faraday and Seacore for the wonderful game. It had the full McGilla (Simpsons reference FTW) IMO.

1. Great writing. When I'm not exhausted I'll be making a Scummy nod for this.
2. Great handling of votes and other sundries, Wincongate notwithstanding.
3. Day events - These were awesome and I looked forward to what each new day would bring. Color me disappointed that the Royal Wedding event got cancelled.

I'm half asleep so I'll try to keep my thoughts focused.

To everyone (mainly Locke) who kept saying that I was playing for the draw Day 5 and 6 - that's incorrect. I was playing to get to endgame. I need Mac to survive those days to narrow down the Town enough to get to 4 or 3 players left. I feel a little slighted that I didn't get more credit for getting Mac off the hook when he was tracked. I think I helped divert Thor and make Mina question herself with my arguments that it was 'logical' and drawing some of the heat to myself. I was fairly confident that come 1-1-1 or 1-1-2 given a chance I could make a better argument for the Greyjoys winning than the Lannisters. I had planned from the outset to out Mac based on my claim knowledge at the very beginning of Day.

I was shocked when only 1 body turned up on the morning of Day 7.

Everyone can read my thoughts in the Greyjoy QT but I did originally intend to kill diddin on Night 6 to 'poison the well' as it were to prevent Macavitar from winning if he NKed me. Heck, I even tried telepathic communication with him to let him know But CSL's little fit about losing when he played frankly a horrible game made me decide to shift to Richard since I didn't think Town deserved a win.

I have to say I've lost a little bit of respect for some players in reading the QT. Quite frankly the amount of Technicality Lawyering that went on at the end was sad.

And I came THIS close to killing Mac Night 8. I really did mull it over for awhile. But in the end I couldn't live with handing Town a victory if we cross-killed with no players left alive. I even went so far as to check with the Mods. Had it been an Everybody loses scenario I might have gone for it.

Happy with the way it turned out.

I'm pretty happy with my play here. In reading the Dead QT I'm especially satisfied that my status as scum was pretty much only solidified when I supported Macavitar's obv-fake claim. The fact that the only real mention I got in the QT was pretty much from scorned mislynch targets of mine makes me smile.

Good game to many of you. I'm not going to sling mud. I look forward to seeing many of you around in future games here.

Sleepy Vic Greyjoy out!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Now that I have had a modicum of sleep here are my thoughts on the game –

I think the role balance was probably slightly in favor of Town, if anything. Once Benmage flipped Jailkeep I was shocked to read Miku’s crumb regarding Axel visiting Locke. I did not expect a Doctor in the set-up. Town was pretty stacked with usable PRs. And just from a randomness standpoint the fact that only one PR went to a low performer (CMAR as BP) didn’t help matters. There were very few mislynch targets with PRs so Nightkill selection was at a premium.

I’ve been wondering about Budja’s role since Day 2 and having now seen how it worked I would say that it is a great role. The turn of events was unfortunate that said player ended up suiciding.

Oh and I was the person who stabbed Mina. I wanted her dead or incapacitated way back on Day 2 (and with good reason it seems ).

Important elements that shaped the game –

1. SSBF’s cross-kills early in the game – Town was absolutely helped by having two scum killed Nights 1 and 2.
2. Percy’s Hand role – In hindsight I should have pushed onto another logical candidate. I think it painted Percy with a bigger target that resulted in Locke’s investigation.
3. The decision to NK xvart – I regret this most of any of the night moves we made. We knew xvart was on Locke. It would have been much better for Miku to claim he watched xvart to Locke and for us to push for a lynch on the basis of xvart being a scum role-blocker. Nightkilling either Mina or Cow would have been a much better choice, IMO.
4. CSL’s quickhammer on Axel – Prevented a Doc claim (which may or may not have been believed) and allowed us to kill Locke free and clear that night. Horrible for Town.
5. Miku’s NK – If you haven’t read the Greyjoy QT I was really counting on Miku being the best shot at an outright Greyjoy victory. This kill really devesated my moral for a bit and unfortunately stuck Mac and I in a bad PoE scenario.

Things I wanted to look at in retrospect –

Stuff I said in the QT that was either right on target or dead wrong

1. Post 9 – I called Xvart, Maclock and Dripperth as potentially dangerous players in a mutli-scum environment. Hey, two out of three isn’t bad.
2. Post 31 – “Just talking outside the box - should perhaps I make the kill and have Raivann claim to be RBed? If we go that route we can make a kill we fully support. It's of course risky but might serve us better long term. Thoughts?” - I wish I had pushed for this harder. We would have likely sent a kill on xvart, Mac or Mina (all opposing Scum or Town PRs) had we not been beholden to the Kingsguard.
3. Post 98 – “Our kill is more complicated. I don't think we can really afford to Lannister hunt at all. A kill on a strong Town player is required. My top thoughts for the target are - Benmage, Cow, Thor.” – Three for three on calling non-Lannisters (although Cow was a gimmie ).
4. Post 110 – “4. Most likely Lannisters (IMO) - Mina, Mac, diddin.”

Again – it was a great game IMO, bumps and all

This should also serve as my official pre-in for the sequal!!! /in

[MagnaofIllusion]

I agree completely. And I was actually thinking just before the quickhammer that doctor made a ton of sense with his play, was about to unvote him, and then saw the quickhammer. Too many times that sort of thing happened in this game, I was just a little too slow.

The lesson this sort of situation teaches is - never have your vote parked on someone you would regret voting for if the flip goes bad. Quicklynches can and do happen.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think Seacore’s 2752 quite nicely sums up my feelings on the subject.

Why is it not true? Why shouldn't a hydra be coming to compromises in their QT before they post? There is no reason for a town hydra to have a strong contradiction in its posts, just as there is no reason for any other player to have a strong contradiction in their posts.

QFT.

Although there are circumstances where differences of opinion aren’t troubling in my book a Hydra that has heads constantly voting and unvoting based on conflicting reads looks suspect, IMO.

I was a bit surprised at seeing how close I was at various points to being killed when I wasn't attacking any scum and was getting some negative attention. Too bad no one tried, because apparently Axelrod protected me N1 and N2 <3.

In my mind it wasn’t so much that you weren’t attacking scum as much as you were willing to document your reasons and provide support. As the game narrowed down and you inevitably turned your attention to actual scum it was much more work to fend you off. I’ll take my chances with players going ‘it’s a gut read, it’s so obv’ any day of the week over the way you approach case building.

On Day Five, you needed Mac alive. But on Day Six, town didn't have any more mislynches. Macavitar had outlived his useful lynch. Lynch Mac, kill diddin, and you're down to a four player MYLO. Either lynch CSL for the win (using the argument that there's no need to go to night with two confirmed players alive) or go to night and kill Richard. The only risk is if Thor wonders why he's alive instead of Richard.

I agree that looks like a good path. The problem lies with the switch from lynching CSL (who I have to suspect via PoE) to voting for Mac. It could not be accomplished, IMO, without a STRONG push from diddin and either Thor or Richard. The second I become the driving force behind a Mac lynch attempt is the second he turns on me (at least from my perspective … I thought they knew 100% I was the last Greyjoy going into that day. In hindsight obviously they didn’t). And there was no such strong push coming from anyone for Mac’s lynch that day.

Yes, I would loved to have lynched Mac, killed diddin and gone for the win. It was just not possible as the circumstances presented themselves, IMO.

BTW, just curious about something. How much of your vote count and partnership analysis was sincere, and how much fake? I see you mention thinking I was a Lannister in the QT. Also, was your idea to look at the early dana mob for Greyjoys instead of the early SSBF mob unconsciously inspired by Percy, born of the knowledge that Mikujin was evil, or just a coincidence?

I do think you started looking like you were pushing an agenda over the last couple of days, but you were stuck in a situation where you had to say that 2 + 2 = 5. And hey, you got away with it.

The VC Analysis was 99% sincere. Had I been Town I would have approached it in exactly the same way. Perhaps some of my push to the early dana Mob for Greyjoys was subconsciously influenced by my insider knowledge.

The Partnership analysis, on the other hand, was totally driven by my agenda on the ‘hunting Greyjoy’ end. The Lannister hunting was 100% sincere.

The reason I suspected you so strongly of being a Lannister has everything to do with dana’s N1 survival. I suspected strongly that there was a Lannister on the Kingsguard who was relaying that dana had a large likelihood of being Raivann’s kill target and thus had Raivann Roleblocked. By PoE that was you. It was an incorrect assumption (not knowing Ben had JKed dana) but it was why I made the case for you I did.

As for looking like a was pushing an agenda after Miku’s death – I was. Had we not had so many confirmed players left in the game I would have certainly played Day 5 on completely differently. I so wanted to lynch Mac Day 5 after you tracked him to a death. It would have completely offed them. But I took the hand I was dealt and made the best of the situation.

No offence, but you guys totally deserved that one. Because seriously. Speaking as a townie, I wanted to beat him with a blunt object at the beginning of the day, because I knew he was a goner. He was just so blatantly a watcher. If you claim watcher, you will be nightkilled. No way around it. Had there only been one scumteam alive, I'd have suspected him for it (because only scum would have a motivation for telegraphing their role like that)...but instead I just died a little inside.

He came forward a Day earlier than I would have liked. But by the time we got to discuss it (no Daytalk of course) the horse was already out of the barn. I wanted him to come out after Locke was dead so there would be a less obvious watch target and thus perhaps the other confirmeds (Richard, Thor, Cow) would be better targets for the Lannisters.

I'm a bit surprised at how willing all the scum were to put themselves out there as strong scumhunters and threats in a multi-scum environment. Actually, on the site I usually play (which is actually a forum devoted to A Song of Ice and Fire!), there's something known as Cerwyn's Bible. Since games are alted, it's easier to break with your usual meta, though.

I would only say that strict rules for how scum would and would not act are on some level doomed to fail because individual players react to situations differently. Alting certainly does alter the context.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I agree with Cow and VP, at least in the context of a Large Game (20+ players).

VIs are deadly in the endgame and at least 1 will probably make it there.