A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Macavitar]

Hello everyone, this is the VP Baltar half of Macavitar. I will be handling the duties for Macavity Lock while he's V/LA and then we'll hydra together when he comes back. I have not been able to read the whole game yet because my apartment flooded a few days ago and that was a massive cleanup. I'm up through page 25 currently, which isn't even the end of day 1. Now, I have a couple proposals: 1) I finish reading the whole game, which will likely take a few days due to work and what not or 2) I read the past ten pages and someone can fill me in on the middle bits.

If I do number one, I'll obviously have a more complete overview of the game, but it is going to take me awhile (especially if pages continue to be added while I'm reading). Number two gets me in the game sooner, but I'm likely to be missing some pieces of the puzzle and will have to go on second hand information somewhat.

My abridged reads as of page 25 are:

1) Xvart - town

2) Mina -neutral

3) LynchMePls - town

4) MacavityLock - town

6) Unsight - scum

7) Thor665 - town

8) Benmage - town

9) Axelrod - scum

10) Super Smash Bros. Fan - neutral/scummy

11) Percy - town

13) Vezopiraka - scum

14) Locke Lamora - neutral

15) Mikujin - town

16) I doubt it - neutral

18) diddin - scum

19) CSL - scum

20) Rifka Viveka - scum

23) RichardGHP - town

24) hasdgfas - neutral

25) MagnaOfIllusion - neutral

26) Drippereth - town

[Macavitar]

Ok, I'm going to just read today's stuff until someone actually comes forward and replies to what I said.

Step Forward

first and foremost. I don't see any reason for a town player not to step forward.

Moving right along. Here's the list of people soon be further examined, iso'd, and maybe even pbpa. Order decending in importance based on read(or lack thereof) as well as scumminess...Also gonna look into the lynches, wagons, and deaths yada yad etc etc.
MacavityLock
Locke Lamora
Rifka Viveka
Mina
Xvart
Axelrod
Unsight
Mikujin

In the meantime we can start wagoning up vezo.

Vote Vezopiraka

Why are you not voting someone who appears on your list of suspects? Secondly, why the hell would you have Percy step forward as opposed to someone who is of a less clear alignment? That doesn't make much sense.

Re-reading I doubt it, I find it nearly impossible for SSBF to be a Lannister.

I think he's a Greyjoy, as shown by his reluctance to vote Raivann and just his overall scumminess.

Where abouts is his reluctance located? I think SSBF was acting somewhat scummy earlier in the thread in a general way, so I'd like you to point me where it becomes more specific toward one scum group or the other.

In terms of whom I'd like to be sure of 100% that would be Percy.

I'm officially saying it now, anyone pushing for percy to be investigated gets scum points in my book. First, Percy is not impossible to read, so I don't know why people feel that way. He may be more difficult, but I think if you look closely at his play it is easy to see if there is consistency or not. That's the key to percy-town vs. percy-scum. From what I have read so far, we're looking at Percy town here. The game would be much better served by investigating someone of a murkier (or lurkier!) alignment.

This, incidentally, fits with the theory that SSBF is a Greyjoy.

Vote: SSBF

I'm very happy to start the day here.

You just said the Lannisters killed jvw, and you're linking it to SSBF wanting him dead, and now being a Greyjoy....

Agree. This is the type of crap Axelrod has been putting forth all game. His theories have been nonsensical and he's really been giving me the vibe of playing from the sidelines from everything I've read.

My intent is to kill vezok unless town can explain to me a better kill option. My kill does not end the day, so basically town will get a free flip and a free investigation today. When I decide who to kill I will make the usual claim and final suspicions requests prior to vigging them.

Sweet. This is highly beneficial. I think a Vez vig would be worthwhile.

I approve 100% of the vezo daykill. But damn it, why do players who are already obvtown have to be the ones with provable roles?

While I agree with your thor read, I do have to point out a bit of theory for you. Provable roles =/= town roles. Dayvig could be something scum picked up as well.

What does everyone else think of Percy being put forward? He does have two votes, after all.

I think, 'Why hello scumbag! So nice to meet you."

Official count on scumbags afraid of being investigated: Benmage, Axelrod, Locke Lamora

Any time you want to elaborate on your read of me I'll be happy to discuss it.

If I feel you need to be lynched, I'll elaborate. That being said, don't expect me to try to convince you of your own scumminess, just the rest of the town.

Let's AtE.
I promise I will vote only for the player with the most votes. I will listen to the town. And I am proud for winning the "Get daybigged award".

lol, kill now please.

No, thank you, Mina. You too, Rifka.

Percy: I have information that indicates you're anti-town. I'd like a claim now to see if there's any other possible explanation for what I know.

Hmm, ok. I reserve my earlier judgement (only about Locke mind you). Let's hear this now, Percy. Hold that Vig thor.

[Macavitar]

You may have already backed off this

I didn't actually. Here, I'll quote:

I reserve my earlier judgement

(only about Locke mind you)

.

Bolded is relevant. Your feet are still in the fire.

I try to Cop the good players, under the assumption that the bad players are going to be easier to catch

If you actually cop this way, and I highly doubt you do because you seem competent enough, then you are playing the role terribly wrong imo. Why is copping people you have a read on more beneficial than copping people you are unsure about?

When I'm unsure of someone I try to ask them questions though, which is not eaxctly the same thing as "trying to convice" a player of his own scumminess.

I'll get there, trust me. I just have a shit ton of reading to do still before I actually feel informed about this game.

[Macavitar]

Well, this is the MacavityLock portion of the hydra signing off, and passing the torch to Baltar for now. My biggest scum reads:
vezo and SSBF - Same basic reasons as yesterday.
CSL - Coming down on Mina for the non-hammer of dana. Mina's action wasn't scummy then, and pointing it out as scummy and setting up Mina makes perfect sense if CSL is dana's scumbuddy.

I haven't had any time to digest IDI's scumness, so this post does not take him into account. I apologize for the brevity of this post, but I'm leaving for the first part of my vacation in 5 mins. Later.

[Macavitar]

Here's my reply - either read up, or just start responding to the new stuff. Tell us which you're doing and accept whatever flak you get from the choice as your due. I see no reason at all to weigh in on how you should handle a catch up read, why do you not have an idea in your own head for what is the best way for town to catch up?

Well, the reason I said that is because I only have a certain level of knowledge of the game thus far and I'm making that known. Trust me, I'm happy with playing just from this point and not spending a whole day reading another 25 pages. I know I'm more than competent enough at this game to catch scum off of what I read and playing from now (with occasionally needing to ask a background question), but towns tend to get whiny when people take that approach and I'm willing to do the work if necessary. That's why I asked.

There are basically 2 options. Percy, or someone we think is scummy.
Confirming Percy puts a smart, experienced, double voter confirmed town. It’s like having 2 townies instead of 1 confirmed.
This would in my book yield Rich, Thor, Percyx2, Me. As town, which is pretty damn powerful.

Or you can do the smart thing and either confirm or condemn some cannon fodder. Regardless of Percy's alignment, scum aren't going to want him around (WIFOM). He's not lynchable and he has two votes. Therefore, he's a threat. Why don't we let the scum take care of him? The smarter move in this situation is to investigate someone who appears scummy and is a perennial lynch candidate (SSBF for example). If he gets confirmed as town, then the scum have to kill him, thus saving better scum hunters for later in the game. If he's scum, well booya. Somehow I doubt that you don't see the optimum town strategy in this situation and are still town. You're really starting to worry me benmage.

I'm super glad it is ML's spot buddying Percy so vehemently.

lol, so? We could both very easily be town. I really get sick of people calling buddying without seeing alignment flips. Here's a hint: THAT'S NOT HOW IT WORKS. If Percy flips scum, then you'd have an argument (though I would never be so blatant unnecessarily as scum).

Love the stubborness, and you trying to hold a last bit of pride, rather than admitting you were wrong. It's admirable.

This makes about zero sense. Locke apparently has a legitimate reason for wanting Percy investigated. I can understand why he said what he said and therefore, I am willing to back off of him until that is sorted out. You and Axelrod, however, had no reason to say what you said other than protecting your own skins or that of hypo-scumbuddies. Let's say you and Percy were of opposing scum factions. By and large, you'd probably think he is town because he's played a pro-town game. Therefore, he's a safe place for you to plunk the investigation because it's a guaranteed result that 1) doesn't threaten you or your scumbuddies and 2) prevents anyone else from potentially becoming confirmed town. On the other hand, the flimsy argument being proposed of "I can't read Percy boohoo" is a terrible reason to spend a free investigation.

You may find this bullying helpful against noobs benny, but you should know by now that it doesn't work on me. You tried it in Last Man Standing and it just got you shot. If you're town here, it's best not to approach me like that. If you expect me to take you seriously, then speak logic and not bullying.

[Macavitar]

People use the word maybe without its exact correct definition. Just like chainsaw. Both yes are reliant on flips. But you can still say buddying. You are backing him up. Thats buddy in my book. What word would you use to describe it?

It's called talking about your reads. If I have a town read on Percy, why do I want to use an investigation there? Highly illogical. Is Percy confirmed, hell no. Could he be scum, perhaps. But all I have to go on are my reads (which you agreed with other than CSL, mind you), so it makes no sense to investigate there. Percy doesn't become the all powerful god of scum hunting by gaining confirmed innocence. All you will do is paint a bigger target on his back. Yes, the doc can protect there, but one confirmed innocent is not better than one confirmed innocent (or dead scum) and highly likely innocent. At some point you have to stop relying on PRs to win the game and do some actual scum/town hunting.

Buddying. In this sense as a scum might do to a town person to get said town persons support. Or as a scum might do with a fellow scum to make the other person, me, feel as I am alone in my beliefs.

So do you think Percy or myself are scum? Do you have any legitimate reason to believe this or do you want to spend a free investigation on the outside chance of it being true? I mean, this discussion is starting to deteriorate into theory because we now have a new part of the equation in Locke Lamora to help clear things up, but I stand by my statement that what you're proposing is sub-optimal play.

If you are too wrapped up and aren't taking any moments to breathe and read what I'm saying I'd be happy to bullet them for you once more. But after that we should move on.

I read what you said and I countered with why it was the wrong play. Are you not taking any moments to breathe and read what I'm saying? Repeating yourself does not counter the points I made.

[Macavitar]

BTW, gods of MS, white quote boxes = horrendously ugly. You can tell your je-sus I said so.

[Macavitar]

In light of this, I'd say that SSBF is the better of the two choices (being Vezo and SSBF) for the vig targets. I think we're much more likely to glean useful information from SSBF's flip than Vezo's, since the latter of the two hasn't really been posting anything worth noting (except the recent claim crap).

What information is gained if SSBF flips town? Isn't the point of a vig to, you know, kill scum? Do you think SSBF is more likely to flip scum than vezo? If so, why?

All you're doing is saying you have "results" that indicate Percy is "anti-town." Forgive my skepticism, but are you softclaiming cop? And if you are/are not, to what extent is Percy anti-town (scum/third-party)? I only make the inquiry because you seem to be holding your tongue, which hasn't exactly been your style in the past.

Stop rolefishing. The only thing to do now is wait for Percy. Locke doesn't have to say a word until Percy gets here and does whatever 'splaining he needs to do.

[Macavitar]

Because, as I've stated prior, I think Vezo is more likely to be a VI than scum.

Ok, I'll rescind my comments if you did then. Like I said, I still haven't read the entire thread, so I probably haven't gotten to that part yet.

This quote reveals two things. The first is that Baltar is actually trying to bank on scum actions which is never a good sign.

This quote reveals, you have no idea how to maximize your town play. Forcing scum to kill confirmed towns that are VIs is win-win. Play better.

The second is that Baltar doesn't want SSBF lynched. If Vezo is dayvigged then the natural lynch goes to SSBF. Baltar is already looking ahead to SSBF being investigated despite having just said this in the previous post:

Why would I, if I was SSBF's scumbuddy, want him to be investigated and have his alignment revealed to the entire thread. But you are so right! Look at me buddy the hell out of SSBF. Hey everyone, nominate my scumbuddy SSBF so you can find out he's scum and then we can lynch him. kekekekekeke [/sarcasm]

So Baltar, why are you listing SSBF as one of your biggest scum reads but pushing to not have him dayvigged and also planning not to lynch him?

Well, if you actually read things before you posted, you'd have seen that post was made by Macavity Lock, who just so happens not to be Baltar. My own post of reads had SSBF listed as neutral/scummy, but he certainly isn't at the top of my list of concerns. Perhaps that would change over the last 25 pages or so I need to read, but that's neither here nor there. What is important is your poorly executed attempt to string lynches together.

[Macavitar]

@Rifka - can you please put people's names with your quotes. It would really help me follow your arguments easier. Thanks. (Same goes for others who have repeatedly done the same thing.)

@hascow - can you please put context with your links. It's very time consuming to have to click on 10 different links to follow your train of thought. Thanks

Hi VP! Sorry about your apartment

Hey! No worries. Everything is back to normal now after a lot of elbow grease being expended.

Now as Mina hinted, two of the Kingsguard kills were by Lannisters. Scum recruited to Kingsguard would want to off the Kingsguard as soon as possible. I'll go into more detail throughout my post.

Interesting line of thought. I think I'm following, but I'll let you explain it first I guess.

Can someone explain the stabbing CSL thing? I haven't read that part of the game yet and I have no clue what anyone is talking about.

Tssssss pointless jab statement that moves this discussion and game no where near forward. I'd play mountainous only setups if that was the norm.

Truth hurts huh. You can try all you'd like to be a braggart about your scum hunting abilities, but until I see them in action, I'm going to call you on it.

So did jvw if I recall.

ZOMG BUDDYING W/ UNSIGHT!

you see how stupid that argument is.

Because I'm tired of seeing my name under suspicion. Or now just a point of interest.

Who all do you think has you under suspicion?

Yeah, except she didn't hack him to pieces, and despises the Lannisters as much as she despises the Greyjoys. Nice job buddy.

Now, I don't know the books at all (though your praise will probably lead me to read them), but I think this flavor speculation is offsides. Assuming anything about flavor means XYZ is usually bad form in a theme game.

And there we go with Percy scum. Shoot now please.

[Macavitar]

Mod, your step forward list isn't correct. I think Benmage and Percy both stepped forward

That being said, whatcha got to hide Mikujin?

Thanks, you are of course correct. Fixing now.

[Macavitar]

Suggesting Percy step forward "because two other people had voted for him," without stepping up yourself was practically claiming scum. Suggesting Percy step forward because you singlehandedly caught the scariest possible scum player in the game makes me want to bear your children, and repeat once again that no, I wasn't appealing to emotion before when I said my strength is not getting lynched, THIS KIND OF EMBARRASSMENT HAPPENS TO ME THREE TIMES A GAME WHEN I'M TOWN!

Kind of unsettled by all of this apologizing before a flip has even happened. Additionally, even though Percy has now flipped scum, I see no reason for a town person to try to cover their ass for having a town read on someone.

Can the Kingsguard people quote their QT in thread? I presume so since Percy did it without dying. I'd like Mina to quote hascow so everyone else can read first hand.

Seriously, am I confirmed yet? VPB read, this is real.

Don't be a twatdonkey. I agree with you that you look basically confirmed now, which is good considering I had a town read before. In terms of my read on Percy, I'm not going to apologize about it or back off of it at all. I still say that if I have a town read on someone I don't spend an investigation on them just because there could be some outside doubts. It remains sub-optimal play. I just happened to be wrong in this instance on me read. It happens.

Oh now that we have a flip, is my usage of buddying correct

Sure, now you can at least make that argument. It's not correct and not how I play as scum, but I'm not going to say your making an invalid case at least (which you most certainly were before).

[Macavitar]

Vote: Super Smash Bros. Fan

Caught you stalking this thread and yet you appear to be strategically avoiding commenting on Percy's flip for now. Diescumdie.

[Macavitar]

Post incoming or still lurking?

[Macavitar]

SSBF is in Theme Park as of this post, so he better post soon.

He's reading this thread right now!

[Macavitar]

You guys have never left mafia on and left your computer

It wasn't left on his computer. He was coming in and out checking the thread between each time I mentioned him.

[Macavitar]

Scum!Percy would have an interest in eliminating those who could nightkill him as quickly as possible.

I agree. Percy would have been in a huge position of advantage for the Greyjoys given his double vote and place on the Kingsguard. I think the Greyjoy kills could have likely been targeted toward his detractors.

I was under the impression that those listed at the bottom are those viewing the entire Theme Park, not just this thread. Test for yourself. Load up a thread, look at those listed as viewing, and go back to Theme Park and look at the list. I think you will find that they are the same if you do it fast enough.

That all said I know for a fact that SSBF is actively involved in another Theme Park ongoing game. So attack him for not posting but don’t use incorrect data to support it.

I see. I was under the impression that it was per thread viewing, but if that's how it is then I could be incorrect. I would however argue that he was online almost the entire afternoon (I was working and tracking his presence) and I find it slightly implausible that he didn't check this thread for hours and hours. Additionally, he has yet to respond to me calling him out about not posting, even though he's posted now. I see no reason not to acknowledge it and say he wasn't here if he actually wasn't.

I'm suspicious the voting stage is going to be one of those silent votes (like the stabbing yesterday) so I personally advocate we come to a bit of consensus prior to the thread lock. I'd probably advocate Macavistar and hasdsdfkajg as my top two picks from my own list presuming we lynch SSBF. If either of them are scum I'd like to know so we can kill them, and conversely I like the way they post and investigate (I'll clarify the new half of Macavity does this for me more then the predecessor) - so if they're town I'd like to know I can trust their reads more.

I agree that we should be investigating someone who has scum vibes, but is harder to read. hascow is a decent way to go or making us confirmed town is good. I kind of disagree with your perspective on vezo in the sense that having a confirmed town VI is actually a very bad thing for scum. They can't leave the person alive until LYLO and forcing their hand to kill a VI potentially saves a more useful person for later in the game. tl;dr cutting down on mislynches is a good thing.

I just really need to reiterate to people that going down the road of 'flavor is god' is a really really bad idea that has lost town's more than one game. I can't really speak to what is right or wrong since I have no knowledge of the theme, but what I can say affirmatively is read the rules:

21) Flavour in night/day write up's is just that ; flavour. Knowledge of the theme may help but as you can see from the initial write up's it's not necessarily canon.

Just because someone is lannister or greyjoy in the book doesn't mean they can't be a neutral SK in this game that is hacking people to pieces. /rant

Nothing, actually. I just don't spend every waking minute wondering what's going on in this game. (Though I usually do leave my browser on at home with this and several other pages open).

So you hadn't read the opening posts of the day with the kill and investigation information before you posted for the day?

We shouldn't use a cop investigation on me. Use it someone like Mina to confirm her. If I get confirmed people will get annoyied and I can't help the town too much.

sure you don't want to investigate right here Thor?

[Macavitar]

I see your logic, but I only can emotionally deal with one Richard a game. Two confirmed players sitting around going 'herp-da-derp' would probably be akin to putting a screw into my head every day of gameplay. In other words; I already feel we have one cleared VI at the moment, why not get a cleared non VI next? You and cow have a lot of scum vibe on you to a couple of players, confirming or removing that vibe would be quite functional to town and if we have to do a mislynch I don't see why mislynching one of you is somehow intrinsically superior to mislynching vezo. Am I missing something?

I guess VIs don't bother me as much as they do you. Sure they're semi-useless, but I think there are enough competent players (some basically confirmed, you and benmage for example) that we can figure out who the scums are and we only really need the VIs to vote in the appropriate spots. You're right in the sense that cleared non-VI is more powerful, but I also see those people as someone scum is likely to kill sooner or later anyhow. At least in my own experience, I know I'll be getting NKed sooner or later as I continue to scumhunt and it becomes clear that I'm town. A VI meanwhile will be left alive by the scum indefinitely unless that person becomes confirmed because they are low-hanging mislynch fruit. But it's up to the town ultimately. An investigation on my slot or on Cow is definitely useful in its own way and worth considering.

[Macavitar]

Light candle for Mikujin

Not nominating yourself under the premise of "oh I didn't read the day's OP" is malarky. He was trying to dodge the chance of being investigated.

[Macavitar]

Oh, and i'm not caught up in the thread yet. Had too much fun over the weekend, so I'll try to post a catch-up at some point today after work.

[Macavitar]

lol, keep reinforcing that scum read Mikujin. I agree completely with benmage that you "list" is devoid of context. Also, the big difference between those people and you is that they all stepped forward without being called out. You, however, were doing your best to not step forward at all. I sense a lynch in your future scumbag. Cower now.

Douse
Light a candle for: hascow

Investigation-1

[Macavitar]

The reason it lacks content is because it was supposed to. It was a big, pretentious list, which held as much weight as your "What do you have to hide?" argument. If I don't step forward after your call out, I'm scum. If I do step forward after your call out, I'm scum. Do you not see how flawed that is?

I hadn't posted in two days when I did the step forward, and you're attempting to use that timing to paint an ugly picture.

Do you think you would have stepped forward had I not said anything? When you posted then, had you noticed everyone else in the game had a bolded Step Forward in their posts?

I get in trouble a lot for white-knighting wagons

Can I have some examples? Thanks.

[Macavitar]

I shouldn't give players like MoI and Macavitar alibis before answering my questions.

What questions are those exactly? I don't see any addressed directly to me. If you're referring to why I would switch to hascow over Mikujin, well I think that by the time I switched it was self-evident that hascow's investigation was going to happen either way. May as well speed things up. I think you said something about people not arguing for other targets, but I stated pretty clearly why I felt Mikujin was a good investigation target. If the mass of town doesn't want to follow that, so be it. The reasoning was provided. Second, I stated way earlier that hascow was an acceptable investigation to me. If the town was going there regardless of what I said, then I'm not going to waste my time typing out a huge post that isn't going to mean anything anyhow. Mikujin still looks scummy to me, but we'll just have to lynch him straight up now.

Also, I asked you the question about white knighting in other games...not diddin I'll review them as soon as I get some time.

The answer ends up being WIFOM no matter how I answer it (coulda-woulda-shoulda).

95% of this game is WIFOM. Stop dodging questions and freaking answer them. Hope you are noting all of this sidestepping Mina. I honestly don't see how I could be highlighting Miku's scummy behavior anymore than I already am.

[Macavitar]

Overnight page explosion. I've only skimmed so far, but if SSBF really shot two scum then we should just keep him around and direct his kill for now. I think he's probably an SK, but useful.

SSBF, what DO you say to shooting vezo tonight?

Also,

Unvote, Vote: Unsight

@miku - I'll come to you later today when I get some time. Apparently my ginormous ego isn't finished with you yet.

[Macavitar]

I say he kils macavitar so we get one of the hard to read persons out of the game. We already have cow so...

I think we've been pretty transparent actually. What makes our slot hard to read? Do you have questions you'd like to ask that would assist in your read? Also, that's really dumb vig strategy....

Any reason in particular you're seeming to trust SSBF's hokey claim, and voting Unsight instead? Also looking forward to what I bolded. Hope it means we get to do lunch.

Well, I mean, I expressly said that I DID NOT trust his claim. I believe he's an SK. That being said, if he kills who we direct him to kill at night there is no reason he can't be allowed to live for now. Perhaps my giant ego prevents you from reading the words that I say.

While we're at it:

The answer ends up being WIFOM no matter how I answer it (coulda-woulda-shoulda).

95% of this game is WIFOM. Stop dodging questions and freaking answer them. Hope you are noting all of this sidestepping Mina. I honestly don't see how I could be highlighting Miku's scummy behavior anymore than I already am.

You want me to answer questions that are going to give you no information, whatsoever. Regardless of how I answer any of your questions, you've made up your mind. Just to feed your gluttonous ego, though:

Do you think you would have stepped forward had I not said anything? When you posted then, had you noticed everyone else in the game had a bolded Step Forward in their posts?

Yes, I would've. No, I hadn't.

First, let me determine what questions give me information and what questions do not. You don't know my train of thought, so it might be worthwhile to not think you do. Second, pouty scum is pouty. Third, how do you think you would have figured out the need to step forward if you didn't see it in ~20 players posts and didn't read the OP for the day?

Has Town gone completely stupid? Thor and Locke are the only ones I see thinking clearly on this issue.

Thanks for ignoring me and calling me stupid.

I like where this vote is but could you provide some reasons as to why made it?

Because Unsight is scum. Look at me being obtuse! I haven't put a full case together or anything like that (nor will I probably). Unsight has just continually been on my shortlist for scum because every time I read one of his posts I find it unbearably scummy. He's taken a ton of shots from the sidelines without doing much real scum hunting and has shown to me several times that he's not reading the thread very closely (ie, inspecting for scum).

OOooo oooo, here's a thought: @Unsight - What do you think of Mikujin over these last few pages?

Assuming SSBF is the SK, what incentive is there for him to listen to such ideas? He still doesn't win, because we'll likely lynch him before LYLO, so why not just kill whomever he wants? If he's the SK, why do we let him live to kill someone else (likely a townie), rather than lynch him now to stem the problem at its roots? Just seems counterproductive. That's why I don't like Macavitar's suggestion/said he was too trusting of SSBF.

Translation: "Don't tell SSBF kill my scumbuddy tonight! Not fair guys!"

I'll break it down for you, if SSBF is an SK and we lynch him today, he has a 0% chance of winning. If he's an SK and we let him live on his "vig" claim, which he holds up by killing who the town tells him to kill, he has approximately a 0.0001% chance of winning because he's STILL ALIVE. Which of these numbers is greater Mikujin?

The town aint big enough for two giganto egos!

Psh, you call that an ego?

Question to everyone: how many scum do you think the Greyjoys/Lannisters have? We have 2 dead on each side right now, from 26 total

I think common distribution would be 3:3:1 in terms of scum. Of course, you could have something like 4:3:1 if one team is powerful. If SSBF is telling the truth, it could be 4:4 or even 5:4, though the latter would require the town to be pretty well stacked.

[Macavitar]

About the kill choices, I can kill whoever I want to kill, it is my own choice. That said, I am willing to kill either vezokpiraka or CSL, leaning toward CSL.

No, you won't. You'll kill who town tells you to kill or you'll be lynched. Plain and simple.

First off you are correct … I missed including you. But from my standpoint you aren’t confirmed as are Locke and Thor (as much as anyone can be in a multi-scum environment).

I’m coming around though … especially in light of Muki’s play today that you have been harping on.

I was just teasing.

[Macavitar]

Question to people voting or suspecting Mikujin: which team do you think he's on? Because although I dislike his early Day 1 and Day 3 play (his late Day 1-Day 2 play looked quite townish), he was early to both the dana and Raivann wagons. The Raivann attack in particular I see as unlikely to be bussing. His jump onto dana was lukewarm (so I could see Lannister!Mikujin), but still a bit of a premature bus when the SSBF wagon was so viable.

I personally am leaning Lannister on him. Also, voting scum =/= auto-town. I really wish people on MS would get that notion out of their heads. Town lose so damn often because "scum would never bus their buddies like that." It's a fallacy. Any player worth their salt is willing to throw a worthless buddy under the bus early and ride the points to endgame. Don't make me make a Sotty reference here.

This weekend is going to be rather busy for me IRL. I'll try to get in here when I can, but no promises of giant posts before monday.

[Macavitar]

Yes, he's helped us, but I don't think it is a safe assumption to think that is/was his primary objective.

Meh, who cares about his objective. He's on a short leash and we have breathing room, imo. Obviously at some point he will outlive his usefulness, but he poses a greater threat to the scum right now than the town. If the scum is smart, they will kill him at night to save their skins.

Posting here until a big case on someone is made so I can vote . Until them I will let my vote on mina.
Vote Mina

lol wut?

@Axelrod - I don't think a case on someone involves the search function and all that much work. Just succinctly state in 3 or 4 sentences why you find someone scummy and want them lynched today. It's pretty brief really and can be convincing if you make good points.

Really thought I was going to have more catching up to do since I missed the weekend...guess people are just riding this day out. I suggest we start casting votes and get real pressure going (preferably on Unsight) so discussion will pick up again.

[Macavitar]

Is it just me or is diddin blatantly coasting scum? (hint: it's not just me)

[Macavitar]

Regardless of the lazy votes on Unsight, it's still not a bad lynch. The people who concern me are CSL, vezo and diddin, but all of them are probably not scum. At most I'd say two. So, meh.

I would support a miku lynch today still if people really aren't going to get behind Unsight. Or we could lynch one of the above three and let SSBF vig one out of the remaining two.

[Macavitar]

wtf? I can't make heads or tails out of this post in terms of your priorities. Unsight isn't a bad lynch but you don't sound convinced; yet you would support a miku lynch if the Unsight wagon fails? Sounds like you are just fencesitting for any possibility.

lol, wut? I'm "fencesitting for any possibility" by stating that Thor's opposition to the Unsight wagon isn't all that founded and by saying that if the Unsight wagon were to fall apart, I'd still support the wagon of my other top suspects? That makes absolutely no sense. Additionally, my vote hasn't moved. Your comment is a pretty ridiculous reach of the imagination by any means.

I didn't like having the wagon of the day 50% dictated by ruddy vezo's and CSL's lynch preference.

How was (or is) the wagon dictated 50% by those knuckleheads?

No problem with lynching Unsight's claim. I can see scum wanting to get an SK out of the way but I can also see a townie being concerned about it, albeit unnecessarily, in my opinion. In general her reactions to the imminent lynch read a little town to me, but as it's not quite inevitable at this stage I won't put too much stock in that.

But that's not really his reaction, is it? Unsight wants to lynch SSBF because he is somehow buddies with us in the 3rd, magically unrevealed scum team. It's scum malarkey.

[Macavitar]

proxy voting is a bit odd, but I guess I'm ok with Locke doing it.

Yo Benmage, what do you think about a Rifka lynch today?

[Macavitar]

Meh, we have time. Let's shake this up.

Unvote, Vote: Rifka

Benmage and Magna, thoughts now?

[Macavitar]

Hello all, the ML half of the Macavitar hydra has returned, and I think Baltar is away for the next week plus. Baltar did a pretty good job catching me up, but I'm still doing a read of the pages I missed.

I agree with diddin that the double lynch today is the perfect opportunity to lynch SSBF, who is likely the SK. In fact,

Vote: SSBF

. While I can't really say that I have a problem with it being vezo who he killed, the fact that he bucked his promised CSL kill just reinforces that he can't be trusted as a pet SK.

If I had a second vote, it would likely go to CSL. Unsight's continued attempts to link me and SSBF are baffling, but I can't particularly see a justification as either town

or

scum.

[Macavitar]

My gut was suggesting that Axelrod needed a closer look too. I definitely think there's something to that. Look at his interactions with Percy and Raivann. Look at his iso 13, where he claims that he wasn't a fan of Deer. Except he never voiced that in earlier posts, and it's not like he ever voted for Raiv. Really like iso 20, where he reminds Raiv to claim, followed up by poo-pooing the vig claim in iso 22. It reads like he's admonishing his buddy there. Iso 24 heavily pushes CMAR over Raiv. A quote to enjoy:

There is no evidence implying that Percy is scum.

Well, that's not exactly true either. There's certainly nothing blatant though.

While being a strong supporter of Percy throughout the game, he decides that he needs to add this little disclaimer.

I'll likely continue digging in, but at the moment I think I may be leaning towards SSBF/Axel as well.

[Macavitar]

By the way, we should quickly deal with the mechanics of making this double lynch work today. Here's my thinking: While we're still wagoning, don't let anyone get past L-2. Once we as a town have pretty much come to a conclusion as to who the two lynchees will be, things will need to be coordinated. Both lynchees should be brought to 4 votes (4 votes being a majority of the remaining votes after the regular 7 vote majority today). Once both are at 4 votes, one of the lynchees gets 3 more votes, and we've successfully lynched our two choices. This plan occupies 11 votes, leaving two votes "free". This means that even if our two lynchees don't cooperate, this plan can succeed.

[Macavitar]

If the only thing against SSBF is that he hacks, then I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Flavour speculation is not only anti-town but pointless.

Except it's not the only reason. SSBF's claimed kills make much more sense for a SK than for a vig. Even more than the N3 kill (and I agree with Locke's assessment), the N2 kill was particularly egregious, when he killed IDI over vezo. While IDI did flip scum, vezo was clearly the correct vig kill that night. IDI was under the radar, and someone you make a case on for a lynch; he was not a correct vig target i.e. someone already under suspicion by the rest of the town. SSBF's reason for vigging Raiv did not mention any vig counter-claim. If SSBF really was a vig, he would have made that kill

because

he knew that Raiv was fake claiming. SSBF never said that when asked about the Raiv kill. And yes, while it is flavor spec, there is no way that Arya (who uses a dagger named Needle) kills by hacking to bits. Everything else in this game has been flavorfully reasonable, while Arya killing in this manner would not be.

SSBF needs to be one of our two lynches today.

[Macavitar]

If SSBF is a SK and we have a 4 and 4 scum team distribution he has to be one of today’s lynches

as the 9 to 4 Town to scum ratio likely will mean a Town Kingmaker situation (which would be undesirable to say the least).

If SSBF is a member of Unsight’s mysterious third Mafia he has to be lynched today.

Once again the 9 to 4 Town to scum ratio would be even more tenuous with a 3 person team still in effect.

All this said

I think

we are in either a 3-3-0-1 or 4-4-0-0 scenario. In that situation I don’t support his lynch for the reasons I stated above. I put a 3rd scum team as increadibly improbable and think 3-3-0-0 is likely too heavily weighted towards Town with all the bonus events that are occurring. Likewise I think 4-4-0-1 is too heavily weighted towards Scum. If not for all the cross-kills so far Town would already be in a situation where it was unlikely for Town to win.

This disturbs me. The fact that we don't know enough about the setup right now means that we should probably be at least a little cautious than Magna is suggesting. Thus, a "

must

be lynched under scenario X" has to have more weight than "I don't

think

we're in scenario X." That is, unless someone knows something about the setup that the rest of us don't. So, Magna, why do you trust your opinion of the likely setup enough to potentially give up the game if you're wrong?

----

Now, I don't know what else can be or needs to be said about SSBF. He's almost certainly the SK, and if he's not, he's almost certainly lying about being Arya. At the very least, his lynch will illuminate the setup.

Given the odd nature of the double lynch day, I kind of want to go Robert's Rules here. Call to Question SSBF's lynch today. No additional Voting necessary.

SSBF lynch: Yay

.

[Macavitar]

Yup, prodded. I'm wondering if we do need to start doing FoSes and unofficial FoS counts to figure out today's lynches. Other content coming later today.

[Macavitar]

So, Magna, why do you trust your opinion of the likely setup enough to potentially give up the game if you're wrong?

Because I trust my judgement and reasoning. Seriously, what sort of response are you expecting? And no, the conclusion that SSBF “must be lynched” under a scenario does not trump my conclusion that that I think we are under a 3-3-0-1 or 4-4-0-0 scenario. In terms of expected value

the percentage chance I attribute to the scenarios where he must be lynched are so small

they total expected outcome for me is ‘Do Not Lynch’ SSBF.

This is my point. How can you justify this "small percentage" if you don't have more info about the setup than the rest of us?

If you don’t agree with my logic don’t follow it. More than a majority of the players in the game would need to agree (given 2 lynches today) for SSBF not to be lynched.

I'm obviously not going to follow your logic, but I'm also not going to ignore it. Finding faulty logic is often good scumhunting.

----

Unsight, your 2078 is rather interesting in that while you state your suspicions of both CSL and Axel, you don't state your lynch preference between them. Clearly, that's what Thor was asking in the post you quoted.

[Macavitar]

Richard, who do you want as the 2nd lynch today?

[Macavitar]

OK, I'm guessing I know what happened.

Claim:

Catelyn Stark - Mason Recruiter. Each night, I can target one player to find out if they are Brienne of Tarth. I can't tell the difference between a non-Brienne target and a roleblock. If the person I target is Brienne, she and I become mason buddies and become town-confirmed to each other. I have failed to find Brienne of Tarth thus far. My targets:
N1 - Percy
N2 - xvart
N3 - hascow
N4 - Mikujin

[Macavitar]

Then either I was roleblocked, I was JKed, or you were JKed on Night 3.

[Macavitar]

Sure. I'm Catelyn Stark, widow of the previous Hand of the King. I attempted to ally my son Robb's cause to those of Stannis and Renly Baratheon. However, there have been complications due to the influence that Lady Melisandre's magic has had on Stannis.

This is why I thought there might be some chance at a Melisandre-based scum team.

Is it just me, or is vezo at this point obv-Joffery from a Lannister-type scum group or Stannis from a

Melisandre-type scum group

?

[Macavitar]

Firstly, Melisandre was Percy's fakeclaim, so there's no Melisandre

Check the timeline. My suspicion of the Meli scum group came well before Percy's fakeclaim. (Just checking now: my quote came on Jul 13, Percy's claim came on Jul 23.)

You couldn't have been roleblocked by xvart on N3, because he blocked Locke instead. The evil watcher confirmed it.

Makes sense.

And Benmage wouldn't have blocked a confirmed townie who hadn't claimed his role over protecting a dayvig who couldn't take a night action or blocking a scummy VT like Unsight (the player

Benmage had voted for on D3

) or CSL. Anyway, Cow would've had an obvious way of knowing he was jailkept.

Sure, if hascow was JKed, he'd know and confirm me.

That leaves Benmage JKing me, or a Greyjoy RB left. There's a chance we have symmetric scumteams, right?

1) What would possess you to target Mikujin? Mikujin, who had practically yelled from the rooftops that he was a watcher and was a lock to be nightkilled tonight?

It was between you and Miku. I chose Miku because I doubted that he would do that obv-soft-claim if he were scum. In retrospect, I was clearly wrong about that, and you're right, he was begging to be NKed. I should have targeted you.

2) Also, why would you target

townish

looking players (hey, I said townish-"looking") you didn't even suspect, if you wanted them to be confirmed to you?

The scummier they were, the less likely they were actually Brienne. I'd rather have my ability work on a imperfect target than never work at all.

[Macavitar]

Honestly, I'm shocked you didn't see my obvious Brienne breadcrumb day 1. I was basically screaming "I'm Brienne".

Sorry, I'm bad at finding breadcrumbs. I didn't know you were Brienne until you just claimed, and in fact thought you were specifically not-Brienne after N3.

Also, flavor for your power, not in general.

Paraphrasing as best I can, I am looking for someone I can trust in unfamiliar territory.

[Macavitar]

Also, flavor for your power, not in general.

Paraphrasing as best I can, I am looking for someone I can trust in unfamiliar territory.

Catelyn Stark didn't trust Brienne until Renly died. While the timeline is a bit messed up here, I'm not sure how well it fits.

I'm not sure what I can say about that. Yes, in the book, Renly died before they hooked up. They end up trusting each other though, so I'm not seeing how this is a huge red flag.

Also, would you have been able to talk to me at night?

Yes, mason buddies.

[Macavitar]

Also, would you have been able to talk to me at night?

Yes, mason buddies.

I kinda have issues with that, as we have the Kingsguard, which is another night talk group. Seems like a lot of night talking.

But you guys don't have alignment confirmation, right? Also, this is just limited to two people. I don't know, there's also a lot of unconventional killing in this game, between the triggered vig, the dayvig, and the hired assassin who suicided.

Listen, if you guys do lynch me, we'll end up in that 4-1-1 scenario tomorrow (assuming no cross-kills). That's a LYLO scenario. Has anything I've said contradicted the info that you have, hascow? Any info out there? I know this looks bad, but the explanation for it isn't so unlikely, is it?

[Macavitar]

Oh god Macavatar is already going into AtE territory. Once Unsight/MoI post I am voting.

And how exactly would you respond to the shitty situation I've found myself in? Some not-concrete evidence against me, wherein if I get lynched, town is in a tough LYLO tomorrow. Seriously.

At the very least, give me time to make my case on Magna.

[Macavitar]

Hey, MacavityLock. Let me ask you something. Why didn't you claim days ago and ask for Brienne to come forward, given how tight a situation we were in? I mean, it's not like you'd be asking her to

role-claim

. All you do is remove yourself and another player from the suspect pool. Instead, you forced Cow to waste an investigation on you. Or did your PM tell you that Brienne might be a tracker?

There was no indication that Brienne was otherwise vanilla.

MacavityLock was low-key and dispassionate in the mini, too (which was why I was giving him the benefit of the doubt here)...but he really isn't coming across like a poor beleaguered townie who knows he's been framed. Even his late AtEs don't ring with sincerity. (What kind of defence is "Don't lynch me, because then we'll be in a 4-1-1 tomorrow"? Actually, if we lynch

anyone else who isn't you

, we're far more likely to be in a 4-1-1!)

I'm realizing that this situation is actually quite similar to one I found myself many moons ago. Please enjoy the last day of Wheel of Time Mini, and compare and contrast.

Macavitar, whom do you think is the last Lannister?

I don't know yet. I see no reason that it couldn't be any of the unconfirmeds, including you.

----

The case on Magna starts right around here:

By the way, we should quickly deal with the mechanics of making this double lynch work today. Here's my thinking:

While we're still wagoning, don't let anyone get past L-2.

Once we as a town have pretty much come to a conclusion as to who the two lynchees will be, things will need to be coordinated. Both lynchees should be brought to 4 votes (4 votes being a majority of the remaining votes after the regular 7 vote majority today). Once both are at 4 votes, one of the lynchees gets 3 more votes, and we've successfully lynched our two choices. This plan occupies 11 votes, leaving two votes "free". This means that even if our two lynchees don't cooperate, this plan can succeed.

Mac’s 2005 is very much what needs to happen. I’d even suggest we use FOSes in lieu of votes for the short term to make sure we don’t have and accident mis-fire on the secondary death.

Since there is no support for Unsight at this point I’m going to commit my vote to

UNVOTE: Unsight
VOTE: Axelrod

I don't have time to actually write up a full case and all tonight. There's no need to rush, so like I asked, please at least give me some time.

[Macavitar]

Mac, why did you say "I think I know what happened"?

The player I targeted last night also turned up dead, and you apparently had received some sort of info incriminating me. I was pretty sure that those two things were related somehow, though I didn't know exactly how.

[Macavitar]

There was no indication that Brienne was otherwise vanilla.

You're missing my point.

By asking Brienne to name-claim, you're not revealing her role. All you do is help yourself find her.

Why didn't you ask Brienne to come forward earlier? You would have made yourself AND her confirmed town. Instead...um, you decided to take a shot in the dark at a soft-claimed watcher who would probably die that night, just because he looked innocent to you and therefore MIGHT CONCEIVABLY be Brienne.

I think you're missing

my

point. I had no reason to think that Brienne was either a power role or vanilla, and I did not want to paint a target on either of our backs. After the disaster that was name-claiming in the AGoT game, the thought only barely crossed my mind. Everyone who I targeted was someone I thought might conceivably be Brienne. I'm actually pretty disappointed that I was right, but blocked.

Also, I don't see the relationship between the game you linked to and this one. Sucks to be lynched by PoE, but I think you looked a lot more innocent there, and there's more damning evidence against you in this game.

My point was comparing the way I post during that last day, when I was the obv-lynch from others' perspectives, to the way I'm posting here. If you don't think they're similar, so be it.

Mina, based on your last couple spams, I guess I can only take your suspicion of me as a compliment. You're wrong, but thanks for thinking I could actually pull a claim like this out of my ass.

----

Richard, did you even read my claim and subsequent explanation for the Track? If you're not interested in reading, why the hell are you in this game?

----

Based on his reaction to hascow's info, not even considering my claim, diddin definitely looks Lanny-ish.

[Macavitar]

Biggest scum point against Mac - laying low and not name claiming and requesting earlier and target of night kill.

Please see the AGoT game for the dangers of name-claiming. Seriously, if at some point I had said "Brienne, if you name-claim, I can town-confirm you," would anyone have not thought that that was a scummy rolefish? And wouldn't they have pretty much been right about that?

@FLUFF AWARE PLAYERS - I'd like to see a bit more discussion about the fluff relevance of this Brienne claim thing. Is it "safe" to assume Brienne was in the game? (e.g. is it like claiming a Princess Leia in a Star Ways theme?)

I am fluff aware, but as I am obviously biased, it's not worth it to answer this question. I will comment on others' assessments if I feel it to be necessary.

[Macavitar]

Macavitar: Why did you say nothing about Brienne when Benmage mentioned something early in the game about not knowing whether or not Brienne was in the game?

Your reference didn't mean anything to me at first, so I decided to go back and look. And now, I'm super pissed. That all happened while I was down at the beach for a day during the flurry of posts leading up to and after Richard's claim. Including:

Either of the two of them would make sense. And Brienne's a pretty important part of the books, I'd assume she's in the game.

And I missed it. Fuck. Thanks for making me even more frustrated with this game, hascow...

----

Mac: Yes, I read your claim. I'm just more inclined to believe the guy who is mod confirmed...

Do you understand how Trackers work? I have admitted that I targeted Miku last night, so hascow's result is correct and I've confirmed that, just that I didn't target him with a kill. Believing hascow and believing me are not mutually exclusive.

[Macavitar]

@Mac - I know how trackers work. Your claim just seems really out there and ambiguous and unlikely.

How is it "out there"? How is it "ambiguous"? I doubt I can do anything about "unlikely" though, if that's your opinion.

Mac, why didn't you leave any breadcrumbs for being a mason-finder? Even in the AGoT mini, you'd left vigilante-crumbs (albeit kind of iffy ones, TBH). I don't think implying you thought Melisandre was evil counts.

If you're not counting Meli, then no, not this time. I came to the conclusion after AGoT that I wasn't particularly good at crumbing without being either way too obscure or way too obvious.

In fact, if there was anything to be learned from the mini, it's that names are only tangentially related to role abilities here. So Brienne could be VT, or a tracker, or a bodyguard, or a vigilante. Asking her to claim her name is not role-fishing.

What if the scum knew something about Brienne that they could use? What if the scum knew something about the person searching for Brienne? I maintain that not name-fishing was the right play. If you disagree, fine.

MacavityLock, since you targeted Cow

anyway

, why are you frustrated for having missed the breadcrumb? If anything, you should be frustrated for having been blocked. It makes me wonder if you're upset at yourself for having botched your claim.

I was already pissed that I got blocked. I'm now even more pissed that I missed such an obvious breadcrumb that I could have used on Night 1, thus sparing us all of this ridiculousness.

[Macavitar]

@Macavitar - thanks for the link to another game. But *specifically* what did you see as the negative to requesting a Brienne claim? What would scum have done to screw town over?

I given you as much specifics as I can. I thought people could find it to be a scummy question, and I thought maybe the scum could use the info to their advantage. How the heck do I know what powers/info the scum have?

Also, what are your thoughts about that roleblock/jailing/whatever that happened to you the night you investigated Has? Who do you think did it, to whom, and why? I'm tending to agree that it's a stretch to believe so would love to hear a story told I can sink some teeth into.

Me getting JKed by Benmage on N3 is most likely, but as for why, you'd have to ask a dead man. He and I (ML) did butt heads in a previous game. And now looking back, check his isos 129, 131, and 135 during Day 3, when he and the Baltar half of the hydra had a tiff about buddying with Percy.

----

Mina, good catch on the Bulletproof stuff from Magna. Another great tell in what is growing to be a good size list of them.

----

Answer this honestly. Did you figure out that Mikujin was a watcher (and not some other "weak" information role) on D3? Maybe I'm biased, because I knew about the tracker, so he had to be the watcher by process of elimination. But come on. "I've been keeping an eye on a few people"?

Obviously not this exact, but something like 60% Watcher, 30% Tracker, 5% Some weird investigative variant, 5% scum gambitting espousing info that they didn't really have.

[Macavitar]

Listen, if you guys do lynch me, we'll end up in that 4-1-1 scenario tomorrow (assuming no cross-kills). That's a LYLO scenario.

No that’s not quite accurate. It’s not LYLO for a number of reasons. If from 4-1-1 if scum isn’t lynched that would leave 3-1-1. No cross kills puts the last Town in a Kingmaker scenario. But that assumes no crosskills. So a mislynch today isn’t optimal but doesn’t immediately cause LYLO the next day.

By the way, putting town in a Kingmaker scenario (a.k.a. a loss) is pretty much equivalent to LYLO for me. Sorry if that isn't 100% exact to definition.

This is your whammy? Let me just direct you to a pertinent link

BP in AGoT.

I’m not an idiot. I do my homework to the extent possible. Since reading multiple volumes of a fantasy series wasn’t practical for me I did the next best thing – read the previous game. The manner in which Faraday explicitly used the mechanic in the Mini Theme I expected (and was correct) that he would use here. So when CMAR claimed BP out of the blue without the piece about notification it was worth questioning.

And if he hadn't had that notification caveat in his role, what would you have done?

That’s not exactly what I’m being accused of. Macavitar is attacking me on two fronts.

1. That I didn’t follow HIS statement not to put someone above four votes.
2. He’s characterizing that I didn’t follow my FOS suggestion and voted for Axelrod.

My response is as follows –

1. Despite the fact that I believe he is Town I don’t find his word ‘law’. I quite honestly didn’t even recall that he wrote it until he bolded that passage in his accusation.
2. No-one at all, even Mac himself, commented favourably on my suggestion so I dropped it.
3. I voted for Axel because he was (based on my partnership work) likely to be scum and Unsight was not going to be a viable lynch for unknown reasons.
4. I can’t be a scum-buddy setting up CSL for the quickhammer. Does you think I deviously conspired to put my vote right next to Miku (despite the elaborate Greyjoy distancing going on) in hopes some stupid Town player would hammer (or hoping the Lannisters would)?

You 100% agreed with my suggestion to not let anybody get past L-2. Yours was the first vote yesterday that got someone to L-1. My attack has nothing to do with you using FoSes or not; it has to do with that very specific contradiction in play. You don't have to be coordinating with CSL for this to be a problem. Anyone could have made that final vote, and additionally it's even more of a problem in the double lynch circumstance, because that second wagon is just as important. (I.e. "I'm not on the vote count right now. [Neither is my scumbuddy Miku, if I'm a Greyjoy.] If I can get the day to end soon, then my team is happy.")

VOTE: Magna

----

Oh, and Mina's attitude towards me is inching ever closer to the way she treated me last game ("ML, you played your role the worst ever" blah blah blah). And in that game, you know, she was scum and I was town. Still, she's definitely not the lynch today.

[Macavitar]

- Macavitar is the last Lannister. He was found targeting Mikujin (Greyjoy) so he can only be Lannister.

Yes, I can't be Greyjoy, but the fact that I targeted Miku last night does not automatically make me Lanny.

[Macavitar]

I have a question for Mac; which part of the hydra made the claiming post?

The ML half. And I think I've been been the only one posting during Days 4 and 5.

[Macavitar]

Then you need to bite his head off, and go solo.

No, it's cool. He's been on V/LA during these past couple of Days. He and I worked it all out before agreeing to the hydra arrangement.

[Macavitar]

Unsight last paragraph is a good point. "Vote: Town, FoS: Scumbuddy" is a pretty common scum tactic from what I have seen. But I've had enough waiting. The chances of Macavatar being town rely on an unlikely circumstance.

Vote: Macavatar

diddin, did you read those Benmage posts that I pointed out? Do you think it's horribly unlikely that he blocked me and my hydra on Night 3?

[Macavitar]

@mod

, I voted for Magna, not for Unsight.

Fixed.

[Macavitar]

WALL RESPONSE

That is not a townie thought process. You were worried it would be perceived as role-fishing? Your PM said

nothing

about whether Brienne was a power role, but you'd thought it was likely the scum would know about her? Come on, you'd played the mini. What did you expect? "Here's your flavour text, here are your scumbuddies, here are your abilities...oh, and by the way, there's a player called Brienne out there, who's a tracker. So nightkill her if she claims her name."

And you still haven't explained why the AGoT nameclaim (which was a distraction, but led to no PRs outed) gave you that idea.

OK, let me try to be very clear here. When I first saw my role, I did briefly consider doing the call for a Brienne name-claim. However after considering it, I came to the conclusion that if I were the mod and gave out some townie-confirming powers, I would also likely give out some sort of offset to the scum. Maybe that's just a roleblocker, but maybe it was something more. That something more may have been providing info to scum, or maybe it was something different. Whatever it was, I wanted to avoid it. I thought this offsetting was even more likely given that our mods had already seen the name-claim stuff in the mini. Again, that's how I would do it, if I were mod.

Additionally, people get very prickly whenever they see anything akin to rolefishing. Whether rightly or wrongly, you can't deny that people jump at that stuff no matter when or how it happens. And given that the guy who called for name-claim was scum in AGoT, doing so would probably put a "Lynch me" sign on me in this one.

Oh, and Mina's attitude towards me is inching ever closer to the way she treated me last game ("ML, you played your role the worst ever" blah blah blah). And in that game, you know, she was scum and I was town. Still, she's definitely not the lynch today.

That's a bad example. In the mini, I genuinely thought you were the SK, because my buddy had had a tracking result on you.

OK, I guess it's fair to read this as null.

I think the fact that he claimed a link to Brienne isn't

that

big a towntell, both because Brienne was extremely likely to appear in the game and because his claim was an act of desperation. If he hadn't made up an inventive fakeclaim, he'd be screwed. But he responded very quickly to Cow's hint, AND paraphrased his role PM on the spot. Faraday couldn't have written his fake claim so quickly.

So clearly, if it's a fakeclaim, it's one that was prepared long in advance.

I have a problem with the whole "Brienne was extremely likely to be in the game" thing. First of all, as you said, in ACoK she's a Wedge Antilles, not an R2. Due to my role, I knew that Brienne was in this game, but would I have known that if I were scum? There weren't that many un-name-claimed people left at that point, and as you said, it's unlikely that scum would have known what real names were left, what fake-claims the other scum had, etc.

Also, you're saying that this "fake-claim" would've been prepared well in advance, but then what if someone else had different information on me? Do you think I would've been able to adapt this "fake-claim" including flavor, power(s), and night target(s), which I "came up with" early, to whatever info was possible to have come out over the game?

Because if you are a town mason-hunter, then your strategy

fucking sucked

. This isn't like my irrational tunnel-vision in the mini, where I nitpicked over your kill targets. Targeting a soft-claimed Watcher (both because of the nightkill threat and because ignoring Cow's claim, the default assumption should be that your target is vanilla) is iffy--but hey, we all make mistakes. But not claiming because you inexplicably thought

scum would be told about a mason

? Being more concerned with keeping yourself and a random player alive and not looking like you were role-fishing than with trying to remove two players from the suspect pool, even after a cop and watcher claim?

So right now, I'm trying to decide how much common sense you have.

I explained why I didn't name-claim, or try to draw out a name-claim. I'll give you that my targeting last night was poor because Miku was a more obvious NK target than I realized, but default that Brienne is vanilla? I'm not going to give you that, that's out-guessing the mod.

Unfortunately, MacavityLock always plays with the emotion of a dishrag

Aw, thanks.

Macavitar? I'm going to ask you something very strange.

Please explain your in-depth reasoning for all of your night targets.

I know I agonize over night actions. I want every single passing whim that went through your head as you chose all four of your investigations.

For example, what made you decide to target xvart on N2? You never once mentioned having a town read on him before then. Who were your other N2 options? Who did you think of choosing early on D3 before Cow's reveal? Who else did you consider targeting on N3? Why Cow, and not Benmage? MacavityLock, who would you have targeted N3, had Cow been revealed as scum?

I'm serious. Your detailed thought process, in as many words as possible. Give me a glimpse into your mind.

That's not a strange question. Seems pretty reasonable to me. To reiterate my thought process, barring anything obvious, each night I was going to target the un-name-claimed player I thought to be towniest. During the Days, I was going to try to keep an eye out for breadcrumbs, but as I said before, that is not one of my strong suits. (I obviously should have done a lot more re-reading, especially on Day/Night 1. <sigh>)

On Day 1 of course, we pretty much had to state our towniest reads with the Hand of the King Raising. I didn't have that many strong townie reads on Day 2. I chose xvart mainly because he had been so gung-ho on flipped scum dana, and he hadn't done anything that particularly pinged my scum-dar. Axel, Mina, and DethHydra were outside possibilities, but I pretty much chose xvart right away. (Feel free to check, but I didn't name any town reads on Day 2.) Day 3 I (ML) was away until the very very end, and over the night Baltar and I hydra-discussed it. He agreed that we should be targeting the towniest people we could. There was some risk-reward discussion of whether we should be targeting someone who was definitely townie and therefore was the "likeliest" to be Brienne, or targeting someone unconfirmed so that we could get the most benefit by confirming someone else. If we had chosen to go with the latter strategy, we would have targeted Mina. I was more forgiving of Benmage than Baltar was, but even for me Benmage was neutral at best. Night 4, it was a similar choice: between someone who has "soft"-claimed a pro-town power (Miku) and someone whose role we knew nothing about (Mina).

Also, have you ever played in a game with a mason-hunter before?

Not as far as I can remember. I'm certain I've never played as one before.

----

I agree with Mina's point on Mac's roleclaim - I'm looking for a little more credible evidence than his actions during the day or choices during the night. I don't agree with either, to be frank, but I'm not hammering over them - at least not yet.

EBWOP: Such evidence won't be found in this thread, so don't bother looking.

So... you want me to provide evidence that doesn't exist?

Once Macaviter flips (any)

And you're willing to go so cavalierly into LYLO?

EBWOP reading the last few pages of Benmage's iso... he never said shit about Macavatar.

This is false, as I pointed out with his isos 129, 131, and 135. Oh, also, 138, which I missed earlier .

I think Macavitar should be the most worthy one [to get Candled].

I continue to read diddin as the likely last Lanny.

[Macavitar]

No, Mac, I'm finding the evidence all by myself.

I don't get what you're trying to say then.

[Macavitar]

I'm more confident that Magna is scum (and could be either Greyjoy or Lanny, unless I'm missing something) than that you're the last Lannister. (And you're definitely not Greyjoy, based on your confirmed name.)

It would be wonderful if we lynch the last Lanny so as to confirm me town. But it's more important for the

town

that we lynch scum at all.

[Macavitar]

Reading over a few of ML's scum games, he seems to have a knack for endgaming - good fakeclaims play a big part in that.

One game, as I recall, he revealed that he rewrote his claiming post several times before submission for maximum believability.

I don't think that this mason-hunter claim would be a challenge at all, as long as one has a lateral mind and scum's best interests at hand. Daring enough to be a town role, relatively simple to fake as scum. Perfect.

Which I certainly wouldn't have had time to do here.

[Macavitar]

Mod, please prod Mina.

[Macavitar]

<3 Mina. These questions are ridiculous, but I'll do my best.

1) If you were in our positions, would you lynch yourself?

I know I'd be hemming and hawing at least as much as the town has been here. Yes, there is evidence against me, but it's also explainable. I'd hope that I'd actually continue to do the scumhunt-y thing and do some real digging to see if the "condemned" really is the scummiest player.

2) You've claimed that you wouldn't have pulled a claim like this out of your ass if you were scum. Imagine you

were

the last Lannister, and Cow came. How do you think you would have reacted?

Well, Richard's assessment of me is quite correct. In previous games, I've done my best to be ridiculously precise when playing a scum endgame. I'd likely have taken a while to come up with a claim that fit perfectly, probably something that is unsinkable. If I were scum, a fake-claim including Brienne is dangerous both if Brienne isn't really in the game or if I did claim to target someone who is actually Brienne. My claim was my first post of the day, so it wouldn't have hurt me all that much to have taken some time, checking up on things (breadcrumbs, if they affected me, for example). Instead, I posted my claim immediately when I saw hascow's vote on me, and claimed as completely as I could, with a claim that is not "safe" in any way.

3) If we lynch you today, who should we vote for tomorrow? How do you think we should proceed?

Don't do it! I'm going to withhold my answer so that you have to keep me around to find out!

...

Fine, here you go. Magna and diddin definitely seem the scummiest to me. A cross-kill is way too much to hope for at this point. The best outcome is that both families attempt to kill the same person, which is not exactly enough to escape the LYLO-without-cross-kill tomorrow, but it helps. (5-1-1 instead of 4-1-1. Mislynch on 5-1-1 could lead to either 2-1-1 [kingmaker-ish] or 3-1-1 [game definitely not over yet], under a 2nd same kill.)

There's one other point I'd like to make: While being outnumbered by the town, there is a benefit for the scum to keep each other alive at this point. So, there's either going to be one of the uncleareds not scumhunting, or one of the uncleareds might be dealing with some sort of cognitive dissonance of actually thinking that person X is scum while trying to get person Y lynched. If you can find any sort of evidence or read of that, that might be a great scumtell at some point. I kind of worry that Magna is showing signs of this as regards me.

[Macavitar]

So, there's either going to be one of the uncleareds not scumhunting, or one of the uncleareds might be dealing with some sort of cognitive dissonance of actually thinking that person X is scum while trying to get person Y lynched. If you can find any sort of evidence or read of that, that might be a great scumtell at some point. I kind of worry that Magna is showing signs of this as regards me.

Care to explain how I’m showing signs of that in regards to you? I’m not trying to get you lynched since I think your claim is too specific and fragile if Briene was not in the game. I’m not stating I think you are scum – that group falls to Unsight (Greyjoy) and Mina / diddin (Lannister). And finally I am voting for the person I think is scum – Unsight.

No, you have been pretty consistent in stating that you don't think that I'm scum. With everyone else either thinking I'm likely scum, or at least wavering back and forth, your stance seems out of place. This is why I'm thinking that you might be exhibiting the whole cognitive dissonance thing I'm talking about. However, I can admit that this may be the everyone-thinking-I'm-scum paranoia setting in.

By the way, I'd still like to know what you would have done if CMAR

hadn't

claimed the BP-shot notification thing.

----

Right now, my family is here for Rosh Hashanah, so I don't have much time to post (doing this from my phone). I probably won't get the chance for a big post until Friday.

L'shana tova! Enjoy your apples and honey. My roommates and I are doing a nice meal (including kugel!) tonight.

Just to clarify, the mods confirmed in our QT that he was 100% innocent, and not potentially investigation-immune. Apparently, even a godfather would have appeared as guilty had he been tested by the gods.

Interesting. The way Eddard talked about it in thread, it was a "sane cop investigation" which would have cleared a GF. Of course, we have two dead GFs anyway, so this is a moot point.

Macavitar, you thought my questions were ridiculous

before

?

How's this? Make up the ultimate role claim. Go on.

I've just claimed that you're scum, and asked you to full-claim. You know that the name-cop is dead. You are scum who killed Mikujin last night.

What is the ultimate fakeclaim, that doesn't risk disaster if you're counterclaimed?

You've said you could make a safer claim. Prove it.

Haha! Hilarious. Give me some time to work on this magic fake claim. Any rules you want me to follow?

[Macavitar]

FFS, Richard, at least let Mina finish her questioning.

[Macavitar]

No restrictions other than it should be believable, and unlikely to be counter-claimed, and fit with the roles in the game. Basically, a claim that would work as an alibi were you tracked to a nightkill.

In this alternate world where I am Lanny scum and did kill Miku last night, do I have access to any fake name(s) I can work with?

----

I do not think he is a power role, nor did I ever. If he is one, then that's an obvious breadcrumb.

Well, Miku has flipped; he was a Greyjoy Watcher. So, what the hell are you talking about?

Preview edit: Ninja'd on CSL's... issues.

[Macavitar]

Fine. You, xvart, I doubt it, and danakillsu were given four fakeclaims: Catelyn Stark, Brynden Tully, Margaery Tyrell, and Ser Rodrik Cassel. Unfortunately, danakillsu used up one of them on Brynden.

Yeah, we've all name claimed at this point, so I just wanted to know how limited you wanted me to be. For example, I was starting to riff on Roose Bolton, but I'll limit myself to those that you gave me. I'm pretty sure I'm close to something for you, and expect to have it sorted tomorrow (RL).

----

On the subject of claims we know at least three fake-claims for scum – Raivann’s (Beric Dondarrion) , Percy’s (Lady Melisandre of Asshai) and SSBF’s (Arya Stark).

For those flavour savvy

– how significant are these characters in the book? And how does Ser Davos Seaworth compare significance wise?

Don't forget Brynden Tully, dana's fake claim. Arya is a

major

character. She has POV chapters in all of the books so far, including ACoK. Davos is more minor, but he does have POV chapters in ACoK. (I'm not remembering exactly, but I think that's the only book he is in at all.) The other 3 (Beric, Meli, and Brynden) are all more minor, don't have POV chapters, but are all memorable/important characters. There are others who have flipped (Yoren, Meera) who I would consider even more minor than those 3 fake claims.

Does everyone else agree with the fluff logic Locke used to clear diddin? We're certain diddin has claimed his actual role name but I'd love to hear more fluff consideration as to the relevancy of the clearing since if we can agree it's not a scum name then we can mark him off our suspect pool and if we disagree then he should be added to it.

In my mind, based on the confirmed name claim of Sandor, diddin is pretty much 100% clear of being Greyjoy. Unless I'm forgetting something, Sandor has absolutely nothing to do with Greyjoys in the books. However, he did work directly with the Lannisters, and thus his claim makes it possible/plausible/likely that he's Lannister. Note also that Sandor was a scum name in the mini. However however, this on its own is not proof of anything, as Theon Greyjoy was town in the mini. (And I was he!)

----

I don’t think you are using Cognitive Dissonance correctly here Mac. CD is when a player’s actions directly conflict with their stated opinions. If I said I thought you were Town but then hammered you when others (CSL, etc) were anxious to ‘move the day along’ that would be Cognitive Dissonance. Cognitive Dissonance isn’t having an opinion that is contrary to what’s ‘popular’. And I think you are overstating the fact that I am the only one who thinks you are Town. Thor also seems to be thinking in a similar line to me – that your claim is too detailed and fragile to be a fake-claim. Additionally Richard’s role connection with JVW where JVW’s role was provided in Richard’s role PM also provided the other bit I chewed that made me think you aren’t fake-claiming.

Whatever, I don't care if I'm using the term exactly correctly. My point is that person X (who is scum) might actually think person Y is scum of the other team, but not say so in thread and not vote that way, so as to protect them.

By the way, I'd still like to know what you would have done if CMAR hadn't claimed the BP-shot notification thing.

I’d have outright called it a fake-claim based on the notification tid-bit. That said at that point the realization that scum likely have some sort of mod provided fake-claims wasn’t evident until Raivann flipped.

And how would you know that the mods wouldn't have changed that between games?

----

The real question for Macavitar as I see it is this;

If he's scum then he decided to go with a fake claim that he personally made up instead of a safe claim that was mod provided.
If he's town then it's a little hard to figure out who roleblocked him and why (I'm terrible at looking for breadcrumbs, but I did look and didn't really see any suggestion that he was tagged by Ben or xvart)

Is there a question there?

[Macavitar]

Attention: This is a fake claim. My real claim is Catelyn Stark - Mason Recruiter. This claim exists only for Mina's hypothetical alternate world, wherein I am Lannister scum and killed Mikujin last night. Repeat: This is a fake claim.

I am Margaery Tyrell - Motivator. Each night, I can target a player. The

following

night, that player will have the opportunity to use his or her ability twice. I targeted the following players with this ability:
N1 - No one
N2 - No one
N3 - Locke
N4 - Mikujin

"Hey ML, do you have flavor?"

But of course. Margaery is the only daughter of Mace Tyrell, Lord of Highgarden, Defender of the Marches, High Marshal of the Reach, and Warden of the South. A beautiful, charismatic, and intelligent young woman, she is not only the key to winning over the powerful Tyrell family and all of their bannermen, she is also a prize in her own right.

"How about flavor for your ability?"

Everybody loves Margaery, everybody wants her to love them back, so they'll always put forth that extra effort to impress her in any way they can.

"Why does the Motivation take place the following Night, not the Night that you use it?"

Well, you'd have to ask the Mods that, but I figure it's so that everyone has the same amount of time to use their Night abilities. If it were the same Night, then if I choose my Motivation target after 70 hours, my target has to rush to choose their second ability use in the last 2 hours before Day begins. So, it's probably a balance thing.

"Why didn't you target anybody on N1 or 2?"

I didn't feel that I could be 100% confident in my town reads.

"But couldn't you have used the Motivation kind of like a Cop? 2 kills in a night would have found scum, while only 1 kill would have likely cleared someone."

Well, before the morning of Day 2, I didn't know how kill flavor would work in this game, so the thought didn't even cross my mind. Over Night 2, I considered it, but given that the extra kill would happen over Night 3 (with a much more unknown setup situation than right then, Night 2), and I'd have to be alive on Day 4 to report on it, I decided it was too risky to give out to just anybody, and hope that they weren't scum.

"Why did you choose Miku over Locke on Night 4?"

Well, I decided that it was highly unlikely that fully-claimed namecop Locke would survive to Day 6 to get use out of that Motivation. Given the softer claim, I decided that there was more of a chance that Miku would survive.

"So, you targeted Locke over Night 3, the same time that Miku Watched him. Why didn't he report that along with the rest of his soft-claim?"

My only guess is that he made his soft-claim in part to let me know that he saw me target Locke too. So, he probably thought I was a Doc or something, and probably wanted to get me to target him next.

This has been a fake claim. Any questions?

[Macavitar]

Whatever, I don't care if I'm using the term exactly correctly. My point is that person X (who is scum) might actually think person Y is scum of the other team, but not say so in thread and not vote that way, so as to protect them.

So at this point your ‘scum-tell’ would apply to anyone non-confirmed who didn’t suspect someone else of being scum. Should CSL suspect that I am scum because I don’t think he’s scum?

No, my point is that people should look out for people acting weird, weirder than scum would normally act. In this game, the scum clearly had the ability and desire to scumhunt for those of the opposing scum team. Right now, they probably no longer do, and probably want to specifically hunt town as opposed to just anybody not on their scumteam. And that's something that people

can

keep an eye out for.

And how would you know that the mods wouldn't have changed that between games?

I didn’t know for certain until after CMAR’s flip and his confirmation of the mechanic. But I think in general that Mods have a level of consistency in how they run things. Are you claiming it’s a scum-tell?

Yes, I have a problem with you saying that you were willing to out-right call something a fake claim because of the structure of a role PM

in a different game

. Either it's using bad logic to call someone obv-scum, or you knew it was a flawed question at the time and you asked a question just to say that you were scumhunting, and have to cover for it now. And I don't like either of those things.

[Macavitar]

Yes, my fake claim is Innocent Aligned with the Town win condition as per the mod's first post.

[Macavitar]

I did however discover another possibility for town-Macavatar besides Ben jailing him. A Greyjoy-Aligned Roleblocker, if one exists, have done either.

I brought this possibility up before, but I definitely think that Benmage JKing me is the more likely scenario.

CSL
Unsight
Mac
MoI

^^^
In no particular order - today's lynch is one of these players, that's a 50/50 to get it right from my perspective.

What about diddin as possible Lannister?

Still prefer Magna over Unsight.

[Macavitar]

ITT things get awkward.

[Macavitar]

What about diddin as possible Lannister?

Is there a case for him besides the name claim? I think the name claim alone suggests he's town.

Other than the flavor fact that Sandor worked for the Lannisters, I think his reaction to the info that came out against me was very much the reaction of someone who was quite pleased that someone else was going to get pinched for his crimes. I do agree that the fact that he didn't give a fake name when called out by Locke is a point in his favor.

Just saying, I don't think your 50/50 is right here.

[Macavitar]

Yes, I can understand why you wouldn't be interested in lynching diddin today. Again, my point was about your calling that set of 4 a 50/50, which I strongly disagree with.

[Macavitar]

As long as you understand the consequences of your conclusions, I guess not.

[Macavitar]

So you would suggest that everyone look for people acting weird and that scum trying to lynch Town is weird?

If you want to address that you think my suspicions that Unsight and diddin / Mina are scum is suddenly a new position please do so. Otherwise you are throwing around generalities.

Yes! I

was

speaking in generalities. When I was first talking about this potential tell, it was in my iso 67, answering a question from Mina about scumhunting tomorrow if I'm the one who gets lynched today. The thought that it might apply to you was ancillary.

I also find the unspoken assumption that I am hunting Town by not suspecting you is not a thought process I would expect to be coming from Town. Now you are making me paranoid about my read on you.

Let me repeat.

However, I can admit that this may be the everyone-thinking-I'm-scum paranoia setting in.

I disagree strongly that GMs don’t have tendancies and consistencies to the way they handle mechanics in their games.

OK, but this is a different mod (Faraday + Seacore vs Faraday), a different game type (Large theme vs Mini theme), different number of scum groups (3 vs 1), among many other differences. Being willing to be 100% confident strikes me as off.

I want to go back and look at your reaction to how DripHyrda played Day 1. Because your statement that using bad logic to call someone obv-scum would seem to indicate that their Day 1 antics would draw your ire.

Don't even pretend that's the same thing. DGB made her lists with

no

specific logic to back it up, and that kind of thing is part of her meta. Bad logic is very different from no logic. And you'll find attacks on bad logic all over my meta.

----

Not a huge fan of the No Lynch. I tend to agree with Thor: the way we're set up right now, the scum won't be doing us any favors.

[Macavitar]

VP Baltar checking in.

Hey everyone, I'm finally back. I still have some reading to do over the pages I missed, but hopefully I can add something useful here soon and get this game going in the right direction. MacavityLock gave me a summary of what has been going on, but I obviously need to find the details for myself. It's unfortunate that the town got so distracted today by a faulty result on us, but if the shoe was on the other foot I know I'd be suspicious too, so meh. I kind of think it's funny that people think Mac is some kind of mad genius that came up with a super detailed role claim in an hour. Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one, young jedis. I'm rather curious why the Unsight lynch came apart, as I've thought that was a good lynch for quite some time. Unsight seems to only pop in this game occasionally, and that is generally only to ward off suspicion or spout tinfoil hat theories about us being in a third scum team with SSBF.

@Mina - A jailkeeper generally blocks everything, making it a double-edged sword of sorts.

[Macavitar]

Additionally, you're making two assumptions there 1) that the mod follows the same understanding of jailkeeping I do, and 2) that Benmage also thought about it the same way. I was just giving you my opinion on how jailkeeping should be done. Obviously, we were blocked in some manner. So, take what you will from it.

[Macavitar]

Here’s my problem with this statement. It’s in direct conflict with the way your slot has voted.

1. As Cow’s statement shows you were one of the players who jumped off Unsight to lynch Rifka with the ever strong scum-hunting motive to “shake things up”.
2. Your slot hasn’t even looked Unsight’s way today.

You can’t logically be scum together so I think you need to put your head together with Maclock and come to a concensus on whether you think Unsight is scumm or not.

Here's the problem with your statement,

1) It's not in conflict with my (VP Baltar) stance. I was very pro-Unsight lynch previously when it was me predominately playing the hydra. I switched because the town was being apathetic and, to borrow a term, rudderless. I'm not going to ride a vote and not try to keep the game moving forward just because I think I'm right. People had their chance to finish Unsight and chose not to, so it was time for me to move on and get another suspect of mine lynched. IIrc, I was one of the first people to switch and for the very legit reason I just stated. I don't think that really falls in the parameters of hascow's argument of protecting Unsight. Additionally, I WANT UNSIGHT LYNCHED NOW. Hascow's point appears to be that Unsight's partners (ie dead scums) tried to change the wagon to protect her. I cannot be Unsight's scum partner, as there is likely only one scum left on each team. So, yeah, this line of argumentation just looks like busy work without any kind of actual scumhunting to it.

2) MacavityLock is less for the Unsight lynch than I am and pretty much has been all game. It's actually one of the few conflicts we've had in our hydra. It kind of pisses me off that he's being so difficult about it, but what can I say. I agree with you that he and I need to come to a consensus about it, but don't blame me for his play. You know very clearly that he was the only one posting while I was away, so you can't say 'oh man, you haven't tried to get Unsight lynched today' when I've told you that I'm posting and not MacavityLock. Again, this seems like a really weak attack designed to make you look like you're busy.

To all persons, I'm not entirely up on who could be what faction. Does anyone have a condensed list? I'm just going on behavior I find scummy and eliminating those people who are either clear (hascow, Richard) or that are very unlikely to be scum imo (Thor, Mina). I would normally ask ML, but he doesn't seem to be around today.

[Macavitar]

ML here. Sorry, definitely not

away

away, just had a ridiculously busy day yesterday. Baltar and I have been discussing, and yes, he and I disagree about Unsight. I think that Magna is a more likely Greyjoy, and diddin is a more likely Lanny. He and I continue to discuss, but we have come to the following conclusion: We are a hydra, I do not have sole ownership, and given deadlines, the Mac hydra is willing to jump to Unsight. It doesn't seem like there's enough support for Magna anyway.

Unvote. Vote: Unsight.

[Macavitar]

9 hours. Just a little FYI to you folks.

[Macavitar]

Can people please unvote so we can make this day work for us? There's a lot we have to do today. L-2 is basically a position where the scum can work together to end the day, if that's in their best interests. If I get lynched, there's every chance you'll end up in a 1-1-1 kingmaker scenario or a 2-1 LYLO tomorrow, and I'd like at least some chance to get us to lynch scum today.

First of all, nothing's really changed in regards to my claim. Brienne was in the game, I was looking for her. It all makes even more sense now that hascow flipped vanilla. I targeted hascow over last night to recruit, as was obvious, and the Lannister had to kill hascow last night no matter what, so that I continue to look dirty. There's no new information there.

Secondly, with Mina flipping Tracker, there

is

potentially additional information to be had. We need to go back through her posts (and maybe hascow's too), to see if there are any crumbs as to clearing people of being one scum family or another. Right now, as far as I see it, we've got the following:

Potentially Either Family

Magna
CSL

Not Greyjoy

diddin - Name claim confirmed by Locke
Mac - Track to not-the-Greyjoy kill target by Mina

Almost Certainly Not Either

Richard - Name claim connected to JVW
Thor - Day vig

But if we dig through some of Minas' posts, we might find more clearings, or useful information. Am I missing anything there right now?

Richard, I'm not understanding this exchange:

Magna is scum?

Vote: Macavitar

I suppose. Pity it didn't work out.

I mean, I still like Magna for Greyjoy too, but why isn't it CSL? We need to narrow down suspects before we make today's lynch happen.

[Macavitar]

Ah, I see. Makes sense then. Can you unvote please?

[Macavitar]

And I don't really see CSL as any sort of scum, to be honest. If anything he reads as Third Party but that's long gone.

Why not scum? Can you actually read CSL?

Mac. Do you find it more likely that there are 2 scum on the same team left or two opposing scum?

Almost certainly 2 opposing scum. Doesn't mean they couldn't independently decide to try to end the day as quickly as possible to reduce town information gathering/coordination and in the process ensure that they don't get lynched themselves.

[Macavitar]

Oh, by the way, if you're pretty certain about CSL-not-scum, your choice for a lynch is obvious: Magna is the only other player remaining who could be Greyjoy.

[Macavitar]

There is still the whole Cow/you/mason thing...

Yes, there is, and I'm confused about the point you're trying to make here.

and I very much doubt that the two opposing sucm you speak of know who each other are. Correct me if I am wrong?

No, they probably don't, but I'm just saying that L-2 is a way too precarious position to be in at this point in the game.

Preview edit: Thanks.

[Macavitar]

Oh, by the way, if you're pretty certain about CSL-not-scum, your choice for a lynch is obvious: Magna is the only other player remaining who could be Greyjoy.

Oh, holy crap. CSL, this goes for you too. If you're not scum, why aren't you voting for Magna, the only possible Greyjoy remaining? Why are you Lannister hunting? Is it because you are in fact Greyjoy?

[Macavitar]

Examine from CSL's perspective. If CSL is actually town, then there are 3 possible Lannisters: Me, diddin, Magna; but only 1 possible Greyjoy: Magna. Let me repeat: If CSL is town, then from his perspective Magna is

guaranteed scum

. If CSL is town, why should he care which team he's hunting? If he

knows

that Magna is scum, why would he vote me?

[Macavitar]

Remind me how you and diddin are cleared of being Greyjoy?

I

just

put it in a post.

Not Greyjoy

diddin - Name claim confirmed by Locke
Mac - Track to not-the-Greyjoy kill target by Mina

Let me make it more clear. For diddin, his confirmed name is Sandor Clegane. Purely by flavor, there is

no way

that Sandor is a Greyjoy. He's never worked with them, never crossed their paths. Literally everything else in this game has been flavorful, and making Sandor a Greyjoy would very much not be. Feel free to check an ASoIaF wiki.

As for me, over Night 4, I was Tracked to Mikujin. Mikujin was not the Greyjoy kill over Night 4, Locke Lamora was. Unless I can go two places at once, and the Track only follows me to one of them, I can not be Greyjoy.

CSL probably thinks you're confirmed scum as well. You aren't, but you're not far from it.

Don't make excuses for him. This might be a legitimate scum tell.

Do you think that a mislynch today puts the game into Kingmaker on Day 7?

Not necessarily, but it is a plausible outcome.

[Macavitar]

CSL, you need to respond to my posts 2469, 2471, and 2474. Why isn't Magna guaranteed scum from your perspective? Why are you voting me?

Also, given the short night

Richard, MoI is always v/la on weekends.

does not look good for you.

[Macavitar]

Someone please tell me how CSL is "almost guaranteed Not-Lannister". Did I miss something?

Thor, what's changed since yesterday that would make you want to lynch me? With only 2 possible Greyjoys, isn't that the right play today?

I'm interested to see what Magna does.

[Macavitar]

Basically you're back in play because, quite frankly, I think Mina died for a reason. She was obsessed with you and Magna, I tend to believe that you or Magna are scum and wanted her gone.

Mina was a Greyjoy kill ("drowned"). I can't be Greyjoy.

What are your thoughts on diddin hopping on you the instant I expressed potential suspicion?

I still think he's the most likely Lanny, and the vote is certainly an indicator of that. But the fact is that I can't rule either CSL or Magna out of being Lannys. I've been working on re-reads as best I can.

[Macavitar]

Mac I’m not liking the following thought process I’m seeing.

1. CSL and Richard are voting for you.
2. You state that you are at L-2 and scum ‘can work together’ to quick-end the day.

By this logic you are assuming that CSL is Town. Because otherwise you’d only worry if you were at L-1. And yet in the same post you label CSL as potentially either clan and question Richard as to why he didn’t look at CSL.

CSL is

possible

town. It is entirely plausible that you and diddin are the last two scum. CSL is also

possible

Greyjoy and

possible

Lanny. I'm not comfortable with ruling people out now.

Clearly, some people are. For example: Richard has said that he feels like CSL is town. If that's true, then from Richard's perspective, you are guaranteed Greyjoy scum. The fact that he originally wasn't voting for you made no sense. You don't think I'm scum, therefore you're ruling me out of being Lanny. Because from your perspective CSL is guaranteed Greyjoy scum, that leaves only diddin as Lanny scum. Thus your posting and voting is consistent and makes sense. That doesn't mean that you aren't scum, but I have a lot I want to do/re-read before I'm comfortable voting.

[Macavitar]

Quite right, quite right. OK, so we now have 3 potential Lannys: Magna, diddin, and me; and 2 potential Greyjoys: Magna and CSL. Thus we have:

1) Magna - Greyjoy, diddin - Lanny
2) Magna - Greyjoy, Mac - Lanny
3) CSL - Greyjoy, Magna - Lanny
4) CSL - Greyjoy, diddin - Lanny
5) CSL - Greyjoy, Mac - Lanny

Unless I'm missing something, we're limited to one of those 5.

[Macavitar]

I actually agree with MoI on this one. It really seemed to me that Mina was saying CSL couldn't be Lanny because he's too dumb...which afaik is a terrible argument to make. CSL can be aloof at times, but he's not stupid and actually does have experience playing. Unless there is a night result or mod-confirmation, ruling people out is kind of a terrible idea. You can say it's less likely, sure, but that is not the same as exclusion.

-VP

[Macavitar]

Stop disagreeing to disagree. You just repeated what I said. CSL is NOT clear of being a lanny. I agree that he is less likely than some people (*cough*you*cough*), but he's certainly not less than us since, you know, we're not.


But yeah, Mina's logic is very much fail. Too stupid to be scum is one of the worst arguments in the book. Of course, eliminating Macavitar and taking CSL to lylo is probably exactly what diddin-scum would be looking at as an endgame strategy right now.

[Macavitar]

Funny how this epiphany didn’t occur to you until Mac pretty much told you it should be the case.

To anyone who has doubts about CSL as the best lynch for today –

Read his last 4 or so posts. They just ooze frustrated Greyjoy.

Yer, I'm starting to feel that way too...which kind of makes me feel bad about our slot being on your case so hard earlier, but I guess PoE can point you in the wrong direction sometimes. I need to discuss with Mac (he's currently V/LA), but that's where I'm leaning for today's lynch.

We need to hit scum today. I think a concensus over whether we should be targeting a Greyjoy or Lannister needs to be reached. For obvious self-serving reasons I think Greyjoy is the way to go and thus CSL should be the lynch. If we decide Lannister I’ll be supporting diddin to hang.

Yeah, agree that we can't miss today. The odds of hitting Greyjoy are better and therefore that is where we should be targetting. CSL has been pro pretty much any lynch he could get this game and the fact that he wasn't too interested in you until we explicitly told him he should be makes me think he's a Greyjoy. Even if diddin is very likely the last Lanny, this close to endgame it's probably better to play the odds that are in our favor.

Why I would rather lynch Mac: If we lynch CSL today and he flips Greyjoy scum, we likelier than not have to choose between 3 people for the lynch tomorrow (me Mac or Magna). If we lynch Mac today we have +1 confirmed town.

This logic makes no sense. It's much higher risk than having a 50/50 chance of hitting scum. You're trying to trump it up with some kind of confirmed town bonus...but here's the real deal on this plan: diddin wants a kingmaker scenario tomorrow. If CSL is the last Greyjoy, diddin is betting that he'd kill probably one of Magna or Thor tonight. diddin then kills Richard and tomorrow is kingmaker. Who in their right mind would award CSL with a win over diddin? Granted, diddin's slot did approximately nothing for 95% of the game, but CSL still has him slightly beat in that department. That kind of kingmaker is certainly much more winnable than a lylo with Macavitar, who is town and capable of arguing back at you.

so, VP's thoughts:

CSL today
diddin tomorrow
???
Profit

[Macavitar]

CSL, if you are town, you are voting for someone who is not guaranteed scum over someone who is guaranteed scum. You have 1 post to rectify this situation.

[Macavitar]

CSL, if you are town, you are voting for someone who is not guaranteed scum over someone who is guaranteed scum. You have 1 post to rectify this situation.

Interesting reaction Mac. That said I have a question –

Why aren’t you voting?

This is ML. VP got it slightly wrong; I'm not on V/LA, I'm just

really

busy this week. In some spare time, I've been trying to work on connection reads, and I don't really want to vote before I complete them. (And I have discussed this with VP.) Of course, if something happens that makes someone obv-scum, I'll be voting them.

[Macavitar]

Yes, CSL, explain why you as town would rather risk losing the game on an uncertain lynch on us as opposed to putting the town in a slightly better position tomorrow by lynching Magna. I realize you've changed your vote back now after being threatened, but I'd like to hear your rationale for the switch in the first place.

[Macavitar]

You wake up at noon on Thursdays?

[Macavitar]

Don't worry Thor, I don't get it either. Like I said before, he's trying to trump up a wagon on me so he can get king maker with CSL.

Also,

Once Magna flips Greyjoy, I'm confirmed town.

Once Mac flips Lannister, you're confirmed town.

Once both of them are dead, town wins. Plain and simple.

lol.

ITT, scum try to talk to each other in not so coded messages.

[Macavitar]

In doing my connection reads, there are 2 posts that I cannot get out of my mind.

The first is Percy's iso 34. Among other things in that Wall o' Text, there's this:

People who stabbed CSL:
-Percy
-Thor665
-LynchMePls
-Rifka Viveka
-MagnaofIllusion
-Mikujin
-Axelrod?

People who did not stab CSL:
-CSL
-danakillsu
-Benmage
-xvart?
-Locke Lamora
-vezokpiraka

The stabbing mechanic was anonymous, so this whole thing struck me as odd. Why go out of your way to point out who claimed to stab CSL, but not to get people to identify who they

did

stab if not CSL? Note that both living Greyjoys are on the list of CSL-stabbers. Trying to gain town points when CSL-Greyjoy flips?

The second is Magna's iso 5.

First let me say welcome to Riavann and thanks to Deer. I wish more lurkers would have the good sense to replace rather than playing poorly.

Its definitely information over analysis. This kind of breakdown isnt available automatically, is it?

No it’s not automatically available. The point is that you’ve splattered the thread with a whole bunch of numbers but tell us nothing about what you think they mean. I ask again - Do 5 posts from someone like Mukuji (or insert your favorite low content poster) mean they are contributing more than 1 post from Percy (or a similar large content per post player)? Based on you list who are most likely to be scum?

You aren’t taking a stand. You are saying “Look at all these numbersâ€

In this post, Magna talked about

all three Greyjoys

. Would Magna-Greyjoy have the audaciousness to name all of his scumbuddies in his sixth post of the game? I can't see it.

Having discussed with VP, we're ready. VOTE: CSL

We'd like to do more Lanny digging today, but barring overwhelming evidence, I don't think we'll be changing our vote.

[Macavitar]

Mac's last post has a truncated quote in it.

Annoyed that the boards haven't been fixed yet, but CSL is correct here. I have now dug through the archives to find the full post, and it can be found here. This isn't as airtight Magna-not-Greyjoy evidence as I thought at first, but I still find it valid. Thus I still think we've PoE'ed it down to CSL as Greyjoy.

[Macavitar]

Damn Magna, and I was on you all game, only to second-guess myself on that last day. Grr at CSL.

So Magna, no choice but to make an offer of a joint win: No Lynch just happened, so we night kill diddin, you night kill Thor. If we buck, that's a town win. So let's not buck, shall we?

[Macavitar]

Yeah, have to give you props diddin. You had us nailed early. The whole time I was worried the town was going to take you and Unsight's side, but thankfully CSL distracted most everyone else.

[Macavitar]

@Mac - I just have to know - fakeclaim or did you invent it yourself?

Role was invented on my own, in an hour. Fake name of Catelyn was provided. More detailed notes, if anyone cares, will come post game.

Also, wouldn't the scum who killed the other scum achieve total victory?

Yes, but if both defect, then we both lose. So, Magna, NEITHER OF US SHOULD DEFECT!

[Macavitar]

Actually, in Prisoner's Dilemma, defecting = losing. I mean, I understand why you are pushing that because you're trying to use psychology and earn a town victory, but it's a little simplistic. Magna most likely realizes that the best we can do in this situation is get a draw for scum, and that is a victory in some ways considering how much the town benefited in this game from the setup at times. Us killing each other tonight is dumb considering how hard both of us had to fight just to get here.

The only way we'd consider taking Magna out of the game today is if you and diddin decided you guys wanted to award one of us victory by lynching the other. If that's the case, then we'll both have to make a case as to why we think we're both more deserving of a victory. However, if you guys want to stick to no lynching, then the only obvious choice is for each one of us to kill one of you and take the draw.

-VP

[Macavitar]

Since we're both in the same situation, if we both think that, then we both lose, rather than both winning. The Prisoner's Dilemma is one of the example games where the stable (Nash) equilibrium is decidedly not the optimal solution.

The offer has been made, and that's that.

[Macavitar]

Well, obv we need to hear from him. I'm saying that from a win perspective for scum, yes it is cut and dry. However, people do get greedy and I want to hear his opinion. I think MoI is reasonable enough to see that a shared victory in this sense is a good plan, but we don't need to rush anything. Town has lost at this point and we're in control. The only thing you guys can do now is decide if you want to pick a winner between the Greyjoys and the Lannisters.

[Macavitar]

Additionally, we have an opportunity to break the site meta that town always wins Prisoner's Dilemma. Mac and I decided very consciously last night that we wanted this to happen when we no killed. We could have easily taken Magna out and fought for the single victory in lylo. Or we could have killed you, Thor, and went to Kingmaker. But we chose to no kill because we feel both Magna and us have played a good game and we don't mind sharing a guaranteed victory.

[Macavitar]

One of my first actions was going to be to ask about your lack of kill last night but VP has cleared that up. I can understand where you were coming from. To some degree I expect you were also ‘poisioning the well’ on the off chance I chose to take you out to make sure I couldn’t win. Good strategy, BTW. I almost chose to kill diddin over Richard on the same premise but after CSL’s hissy fit changed my mind.

Actually, the poisoning the well thought never occurred to us, though you make a good point. Ultimately, we just decided shooting for the kingmaker was more risky than just taking the split victory. lol, after this is over I'm sure our QT will make for some interesting reading.

Mac I'm counting on you to ice diddin as you stated in your plan.

We most certainly will. Let this be a testament to scumbags working together everywhere. Mr. MoI, tear down that wall!


Good luck and good night.

-VP