Succession Mafia (OVER!)

[Erg0]

What little I've seen of vezok leads me to think that he's more likely to be clueless than a genius of reverse psychology. I guess this could be a genius product of scum groupthink, but I'm leaning away from that. He's probably just set himself up for a nightkill, so I doubt we'll end up needing to work it out one way or t'other.

You're saying he plays this way as town. You're insinuating that you are okay with lynching town.

Sometimes it's ok to be ok with lynching town. Lynching a town PR, on the other hand...

Aim: Seraphim

[Erg0]

Aim: Erg0

That's a poor vote with weak reasoning.

I've lynched people I thought were town before because it was good for the town in the long run, so I don't categorically agree with the idea that wanting to lynch someone regardless of alignment is scummy. However, vezok has softclaimed a role that's relevant to a major scum mechanic, and pushing a policy lynch on him under those circumstances suggests a hidden agenda.

[Erg0]

Holster

There goes the premise for my Seraphim theory. I'm not inclined to comment on the most recent posts at this time, other than to say that it would be nice if people could just leave it at the door.

[Erg0]

I guess. He doesn't strike me as the kind of player for whom a bad vote would be terribly out of character.

[Erg0]

Read the thread, vezok. The information you softclaimed was in the signup thread.

Also, good to see that my expectations of Furcolow were correct.

[Erg0]

He doesn't strike me as the kind of player for whom a bad vote would be terribly out of character.

[Erg0]

God, I hate games that start like this. I won't have a chance to read all of this for a few hours, hopefully there won't be another 10 pages by then.

[Erg0]

Aim: TheLonging

Argues with Seraphim, votes for furcolow for voting Seraphim, then votes Me=Weird, who replaced Seraphim. Make up your mind, dude.

Can't believe I'm actually at the point of reading isos already.

[Erg0]

I believe this is a case of you all having a huge age difference, honestly.

Huh? 'Splain please.

[Erg0]

I don't usually give people breaks based purely on their age.

HEY

HAVE YOU HEARD OF THIS THING

WHERE YOU CAN CHANGE YOUR READS ON PEOPLE

DEPENDING ON HOW THEY POST AND PLAY?

Sure, I've heard of it. I don't see much evidence of it in your posts, though.

[Erg0]

@Gandalf: were you

really

unable to tell from Furcolow's posting that he had a VI-type meta?

[Erg0]

Summing up, I think competing bandwagons on gandalf and friend would be the best course of action right now.

This seems like you're playing both sides of the argument against each other.

Well here's the thing

I don't need to explicitly state it in every post

Once would be sufficient.

[Erg0]

@Gandalf: were you

really

unable to tell from Furcolow's posting that he had a VI-type meta?

Yes, but with VIs, you have to get familiar with their meta to read them. It's how I work, man. So LINKS PLOX!!!!!!!

Ok, so shouldn't you have asked about his meta

before

you voted him?

Odd that Lord Gurgi spoke of competing wagons being a false dilemma, and then voted for Friend anyway. Token pro-town sentiment?

[Erg0]

I'm not sure I get the Friend thing, just from looking at his iso. Is this a meta issue?

[Erg0]

I'll join this ubertown Alliance. Too bad you shouldn't be in it

holster
aim: Friend

if Friend is scum M=W is town.

This really doesn't make me feel any better about you.

Only 4 pages overnight? You guys are slipping.

[Erg0]

Good to see that TL hasn't improved after that post, either.

Prozac is the Don Quixote of playstyles.

Starting to seriously think that Yos2 got recruited. That catchup post was full of fluffy accusations on easy targets.

This seems pretty WIFOMy to me, and not the kind of case that's going to be productive on day 1. Also, you're ignoring the possibility that he just started as scum.

Yos makes good points about Gandalf, I think. That earlier thing about hunting recruits, not so much.

I've run out of time, will read the last page later today. Also to do: iso read on dram, since he's getting attention.

[Erg0]

Odd that Lord Gurgi spoke of competing wagons being a false dilemma, and then voted for Friend anyway. Token pro-town sentiment?

I'm not sure what competing wagon you think I'm endorsing? There's a difference between voting for an underdog wagon and endorsing two wagons simultaneously.

Hadn't read this yet when I posted this morning (my time) - I'm still a couple of pages behind and gaining fast.

My point is that a false dilemma would be "one of these two wagons is on scum". If you're voting for Friend then you presumably think he's scum, which means that the choice between him and gandalf isn't actually a false dilemma from your perspective.

My original point was really that xvart appeared to be creating a situation where he could let others do the work in building the wagons, and then jump onto whichever was convenient. It wasn't so much about the actual alignment of the people being wagoned.

[Erg0]

Ergo randomly walked into the thread, saw my vote on dramonic, and thought "whelp". Good job.

I made my earlier post (496) after just reading the post that I quoted. I then skim ahead a bit and see that you've changed your vote

twice more

since then, neither accompanied by what I'd call a reason. Given that I was calling you out for vote hopping, it shouldn't surprise you too much that you're reinforcing my earlier view.

The Yosarian2 wagon is crappy WIFOM and will fail. Save yourselves the trouble.

[Erg0]

Having read back over the latter half of the game, I would now like to call for an end to the Yos 2 wagon.

While it is true that being a high profile player makes him (and others of his Calibre) a prime recruitment target, it is also true that it's a) Wifom-y after all, that's what we expect, and b) it doesn't solve the problem. We need to cut the heads off the snakes, not chop away at the tail.

OH, WAIT, IS THAT A CHAINSAW I SEE? I bolded it for you guys. He's calling an end for that wagon. Cute. Lets flip one of these guys and see what's up.

The question now is: who is the likelier recruiter? I am leaning towards chronopie, with yosarian2 being the recruitee
if we can lynch one, we are likely to KNOW where the head is!!

Did you notice that I said much the same thing in the post right before his? Pretty sure I wasn't the first, even.

[Erg0]

[2]

TheLonging (Erg0)

One of these things is not like the other.

Posting to avoid a prod, big reread ate my free time for a couple of days. I'll be catching up over the weekend.

[Erg0]

For the people saying Furcolow is town based on meta - how is his scum meta different from the way he's playing in this game?

@animorpherv1: did you have any analysis of that Furcolow game you linked?

I'm confused by a few people saying "good point" after my question to Furcolow in 587, then the idea just evaporating after he doesn't respond.

I was confused by people accusing Andrius of a scum slip - then I realised that "voting bloc" referred to his townlist, not his scumlist. I see the point, but it probably fits more with a single scumgroup game. Unless there's still only one scumgroup with an NK, but I wouldn't think that scum would know about that if it were the case.

Is the wagon on dramonic based mostly on the lurking? Lack of scumhunting is evident in his iso, but I don't recall seeing this specifically mentioned as part of the case. Could be implicit in the lurking, or I just forgot.

[Erg0]

@animorpherv1: did you have any analysis of that Furcolow game you linked?

No, but from what I can tell, the players there think he was the exact same as here. Biggest VI ever. Everyone except the mod, that is.

So he plays the same way regardless of alignment? Doesn't that invalidate the "he always plays like this as town" defence that several people have put forward on his behalf?

The many hops onto the dram wagon give me reason to doubt its authenticity. I doubt very much that half of the game has that good of a read on his meta. I can understand why dram would be struggling to keep up with this game if he's busy elsewhere, but that does need to change.

[Erg0]

A mafia Bodyguard claiming Bodyguard would be a pretty poor move if their flavour reflects the sample role PM that Andrius quoted. Dramonic probably just made himself a pretty juicy recruitment target if he's town, though. Not something to lynch him for right now, but worth bearing in mind later on.

[Erg0]

A mafia Bodyguard claiming Bodyguard would be a pretty poor move.

Um... yeah it'd be a sucky move, but if it's the only move that might save them from being lynched,

they would probably do just that.

Plus, this is dramonic we're talking about here.

I'd hardly say it's the

only

claim that could have saved him. There are plenty of other unproveable claims that would do the job without raising flavour issues. I don't know whether dram's someone that would actually

think

of that, but I have to at least credit him with a basic level of intelligence.

[Erg0]

Holster, Aim: Furcolow

This is just getting ridiculous.

[Erg0]

Guess that confirms that you haven't read my posts either.

[Erg0]

your post was 1 line, ergo
give me justification right now

Protip: sometimes the reasons are in posts prior to the actual vote.

[Erg0]

He's an annoying, inherently scummy VI, but I'm pretty sure he's town. His pushing for a claim should not be taken seriously. Duh.

I'm really sick of hearing this defence for furcolow. Being a VI is not a town tell.

[Erg0]

Is Andrius always this annoying?

I assume that RC's dram vote is because he suspects the second person visiting dram was a recruiter. Either that or what should be obvious isn't (at least to me).

Still think furcolow is the best lynch for today. I'm thinking that the principle of not lynching claimed PRs day 1 without a counter probably still applies in a cult game.

[Erg0]

I assume that RC's dram vote is because he suspects the second person visiting dram was a recruiter.

I didn't investigate Dramonic, stupid. Read the thread. XD I investigated SOMEONE ELSE.

Bah, I need to make some notes, I totally read that and then forgot it. In that case, obvious reasons aren't obvious.

[Erg0]

It sounds like Andrius is effectively a recruitCop, which would make "fending for himself" a reasonable result for someone who hadn't been culted. Unless the mod says otherwise, I don't think this makes RC a viable target.

I really don't think the Furcolow wagon is good. Funnily, it's comprised of almost all older players (MS vets). I'm not sure if that's a sign of lack of experience with VIs more than anything else but it's interesting.

This really makes no sense, if anything the wagon being comprised of vets would make it

more

likely to be accurate.

For more proof, just look at the awesome results that have been produced by the two wagons driven by "newer" players - one outed cop and one outed bodyguard. Good job, fellas.

[Erg0]

He'd need to have been recruited N0 for your scummy read to be correct anyway, so the order of the night actions really just removes the chance of a lucky guilty on a new recruit who was town the day before.

I'm hoping that a pro-town roleblocker wouldn't have been dense enough to block you last night, so I'm thinking role shenanigans or a scum blocker. The flavour doesn't seem to fit with a block, but I'm not sure how reliable that is. Also, if I was scum with a roleblocker at my disposal then I'd probably have blocked dram and killed you, since that would likely result in dram being lynched today.

Guess I should read ooba in iso.

[Erg0]

singer backing ooba's role details is good enough for me. If he was recruited N0 then Andy should have got a guilty result on him, surely?

I'd like to say that zwet wouldn't have vigged dram last night, but my experience with him makes me think it's possible. Leaving the cop alive for another day might be seen as a low risk by the scum if they weren't on his radar. Still can't wrap my head around the lack of result, but it doesn't seem to be a result of ooba's role.

Also, @ooba:

What makes you so sure that there is no mafia recruiter? IMO, while it may not be likely, is still possible.

I don't think he said that?

[Erg0]

But when people tell you "Furc does this EVERY TIME HE'S TOWN" and you continue to push hard on the lynch wagon, I find that scummy.

This was covered yesterday. I asked whether Furc played the same way as scum and town, and the answer was that he did. So it would be more accurate to say "Furc does this regardless of alignment", which makes his playstyle null and leaves us to look at who his actions benefited.

I strongly suggest that people go back and read zwet's ISO to find out who he suspected.

Five minutes of reading would tell you it was Furc and dram at the end of the day, and Friend earlier on. Given that you think ooba was buddying up to Friend on D1, I take it you don't see him as a viable scum partner, so I don't think the zwet kill helps your ooba case at all.

Also, "investigation immune" should not give a result of "you could not determine alignment". With a pro-town result to compare it to, that would be as good as a guilty.

Working my way through some ISOs, this game needs a counterwagon.

[Erg0]

I've been seriously lacking in time for the last few days, will post something useful once I've had a chance to do some proper rereads.

[Erg0]

Work ate my reread, but I'm off this week so it's gonna happen today. Just some notes as I catch up on the posts since last week:

- Odd that singer confirmed ooba's roleclaim but then voted him. I assume this means that he thinks he's been culted? I still don't think there's much value in an ooba lynch today, assuming he's telling the truth about killing Zwet (which fits somewhat with his scumlist in 560).

- If Chrono's crumbing what I think he's crumbing (90% likely) then I don't see how it confirms his alignment. Given the distribution of power roles revealed so far, I'd say that he, or someone like him, is responsible for the lack of cop result on ooba last night.

[Erg0]

Town RB would be dumb as rocks to block me. And Chrono, as proved in SSBMafia, is quite clever.

Having multiple blockers wouldn't shock me. Doesn't say anything about alignment, of course.

My thoughts on the current wagons:

Faraday - Not a fan of the unsupported declarations of alignment. Slight contradiction between reasons in 3 and 14 for finding Seraphim townish. Trend of "are you scum?" type questioning for most of page 1 of his iso. Little run-up to voting Yos in 19-21 goes nowhere. Never really follows up on RC vote. His iso improves massively from page 2 onwards, though. Reads are consistent from what I can see, and reasoning is sound when he gives it (which becomes more frequent as the game progresses). Doesn't look like a good lynch candidate to me.

Chronopie - Seems to go scum-town-scum with his read on dram in 5-7-8. Seems to only be interested in following the big posters on day 1, forgets about vezok after having a strong-ish point on him in 7. Switches off dram and Andrius for flavour reasons, without reconciling his scummy reads on them. Pointless and unnecessary softclaim in 20. Moves vote from RC to Furc "in the interest of moving the game forward", then doesn't switch back from to RC in 26 when he sees a wagon building on him. Andyscum theory in 30 makes no sense. Can't decide if Yos is likely to be recruited or not (3 vs 30). Votes for the top wagon again in 29 and 39. Criticises reasonless wagoning in 33 - what's wrong with this picture? Definite lynch candidate in my eyes.

Me=Weird - Looks like he's behind the play on day 1, which is somewhat forgiveable with the volume of posts generated. The Faraday vote today just looks super-wagonny, though - pre-empting it in 14 and then posting a summary of only one page of Faraday's iso just looks like doing the minimum possible to justify hopping onto a pre-existing wagon. Could still be a sign of a time deficit, but I'd put him second in scumminess of the four people with votes.

ooba - Just don't see it, for previously explored reasons.

Leaning towards a Chronopie vote based on the above, but I don't want to limit myself to preselected candidates. Going to make a vote tomorrow after checking out a few dark horses.

[Erg0]

Some thoughts on a few more people who've caught my eye:

animorpherv1 seems to have pretty much disappeared today after a relatively active day 1. He's been silent in the other game we're both in, so this probably isn't meaningful.

Friend has a few iffy moments, but seems ok overall.

Gandalf's iso reads like Faraday's first page times three. That's not a good thing.

Lord Gurgi was ok on day one, but joined the Faraday wagon and

then

asked for an explanation?

Poro arguing with others about playstyles might be a town tell. Pending result of an ongoing game.

TheLonging was on my list day 1, and I don't see where he ever explained his early M=W push. That weird little about-face from singer doesn't help matters.

It's a choice between singer and Chrono right now. I'd like to hear an explanation from singer about his ooba vote, which doesn't seem all that well-reasoned to me. Chrono is more outright scummy, though.

Aim: Chronopie

[Erg0]

It's a choice between singer and Chrono right now. I'd like to hear an explanation from singer about his ooba vote, which doesn't seem all that well-reasoned to me. Chrono is more outright scummy, though.

Aim: Chronopie

So just "Outright Scummy"?

No reasons, nothing to refute, just hoping on the wagon?

I can say, with 100% honesty, that I am not a recruiter, nor have I been recruited. After all, I've made my role clear enough that I

almost

qualify for a share in Andy's bakery

Read my previous post, 1574. In case you still haven't picked up on this: role does not prove alignment in this game.

[Erg0]

Also, why is it necessary for Yos to recap the obvious in painful detail for a few people to actually realise that the ooba wagon made no sense? I have to wonder whether there were some people using that wagon as a way of killing time.

[Erg0]

No, role doesn't prove alignment, but role does prove non-recruiter. And the recruiters are the ones we need to find, and lynch, asap. Or else we have no chance of winning.

{If you have a NA, don't bother targeting anyone tonight.}

Roleclaim doesn't prove non-recruiter either.

I hope you're not a jailkeeper, otherwise targeting a potential cop investigation would be very unwise.

[Erg0]

{If you have a NA, don't bother targeting anyone tonight.}

Just realised what's wrong with this: shouldn't you

want

me to target someone with a night action so that I can back up your much-vaunted softclaim?

[Erg0]

Okay...

I got counter-roleblocked.

But I was going to block M=W anyway.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it unusual for a roleblocker to find out that they've been blocked? How do you know?

Also, and this is going to sound really tinfoil-hatted, but is it possible that the whole Seraphim-replacing-out thing happened because he got recruited by vezok N0?

[Erg0]

Robo's claim seems fairly plausible, he claims to have protected the logical cult target so he'd be at serious risk of exposing himself to the other cult if he was lying. Vezok's early comment about recruiting isn't an ironclad softclaim (Robo could have seen it and thought "what can I claim that fits with that"), but I don't think that vezok would actually be setting up a fakeclaim that early (unless he's

way

crazier than I thought).

I'm in the "two cults/scumgroups" camp, though now that I look back at the signup thread I see that it said "multiple recruiters", not "multiple cults". I'm guessing/hoping that we'll get confirmation one way or the other eventually, but it probably doesn't make that much difference until after we lynch a recruiter.

Chrono getting a PM about being blocked is unusual, and it makes me wonder if he's really what he claims to be.

I'm going to reread Seraphim/M=W again and see if I can find something that points to his recruiter. Those links are probably our best shot at finding a recruiter today.

[Erg0]

I have no particular interest in lynching Yos2 at this point. As he said, there have been plenty of more attractive recruitment targets available in the first few days.

[Erg0]

Rereading Me=Weird wasn't all that productive, unfortunately. The only thing that I really determined is that his recruiter probably wasn't Friend. Other than that, my guess is that the recruiter is somewhere in the group of players that M=W had minimal interaction with, but that's a fairly long list. Interestingly enough, if not for Robo's plausible claim the reread would probably have reinforced my prior suspicion of him. I'm going to leave him on the bubble as a result.

I believe Chrono's still on the table as a possible recruiter. I have several misgivings about his claim of being blocked last night. Going to have a look at gandalf as well, I have a vague sense of scumminess about him but I haven't given him a good read for a while.

[Erg0]

Definitely getting a strong recruited vibe from singer atm. Wasting your ability in order to confirm your role is both self-interested and futile. Not so sure that it's ooba doing the recruiting, though - there are a few too many leaps of logic required for that to make sense.

To me, it sounds like you think I should've used it last night regardless of who I hit. If I was wrong last night, I kill town. If I'm recruited tonight, I kill town anyway. What's the difference? This is to avoid a whole load of crap that could've ensued because of it.

If you're recruited then you'll probably be shooting for opposing scum anyhow. Obviously you couldn't kill the claimed cop (for instance) and still look clean tomorrow.

Question about the double vote (hopefully I haven't missed this somewhere): is it activated in-thread, or do you PM your choice to Mr Flay?

[Erg0]

I'm honestly not sure. I would assume I could say something like "double-aim." Or just PM him myself...?

All skepticism aside about Flay being so conspicuously unclear in the role pm, how about you find out and get back to us?

xvart.

It's by a PM. It "won't be connected to me," but since the claim, you guys will know it is.

I suspected as much, in which case it doesn't actually serve as proof of your claim. I seem to recall TheLonging thinking that he had a daykill via PM on day 1, I'm undecided on whether this makes me believe you more or less. Any idea why he would think that?

I'm really getting the feeling that xvart didn't get a PM about being blocked by Chrono. There are two (maybe three) possible reasons for this, but I have a feeling this will be significant later.

I'll post my top 3 later today, need some thinking time.

[Erg0]

Sorry for flaking for the latter part of yesterday, I should be back on board now.

@Flameaxe: Are you saying that you got a PM about Chrono targeting you?

@Andrius: Spill!

[Erg0]

Works for me.

Aim: Yosarian2

Not chrono specifically, but someone did come to my room, and things happened from there...If you know what I mean.

Hmm, ok. I guess Flay's doing things in a non-standard way.

[Erg0]

Holster

for now.

I'm not sure that I entirely trust Yos's version of events, since he has an obvious incentive to make his team appear as weak as possible. I guess the viability of his lynch depends largely on whether he's really on the same team as Me=Weird, and on whether we can get a really good lead on a recruiter today.

There's a fair bit of setup-related information to parse, I need to do some "what ifs".

[Erg0]

Not sure yet, my theories have been mainly setup-related and seem to get scuppered every time somebody claims a role or result. I have a strong feeling that at least one of our claimed PRs is lying, but I don't think it's RC or Andrius.

A few questions for Yosarian2 (sorry if there are any repeats, I've only skimmed the posts other than Yos's since the claim):

- What was your role prior to being recruited? Is it still the same?

- What's the name of your boss? If we manage to lynch a recruiter then it would be helpful to know which one we got.

- Did you receive a PM on the night that Chronopie claims to have blocked you?

Last question goes to xvart as well.

[Erg0]

So much for my theory on the roleblocker(s). Probably a good thing that I didn't read the last page until after Flay had PMed xvart.

Yos knows fully well that he has to work with us. If we don't lynch the other cult's recruiter SOON, his cult automatically loses. His info should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's not worthless.

Aim: gandalf5166

Apparently knows too much. Probably not the only one, but this is a good place to start.

[Erg0]

I think I like the way RC is heading with his ooba/ss theory - it reminds me of the point I was meandering my way towards yesterday. Am I reading right that nobody besides ooba and ss mentioned the double vote ability for loose cannons? Might also explain why TheLonging's apparent belief that he had a daykill seemed inconsistent with the kind of PM I'd expect a double-voter/night vig to get.

[Erg0]

Bonus points: if Yosarian's telling the truth then ooba is almost certainly not

his

recruiter.

[Erg0]

Erg0 is diverting wagon away from himself. It doesn't matter if ooba is his scum or not.

I said recruiter, not scum. And it kinda does, if Yosarian is to be believed.

Regardless, I just realised that the ooba double vote theory would require him to have made the assumption that there were no other loose cannons still alive when he claimed, which seems pretty risky. As such, he's probable town.

[Erg0]

Gotta say, the "everybody vote this guy for ill-defined reasons" routine is getting old. Since I have some time, I'll respond to a few older posts that I didn't get to before.

NO SHIT ITS NOT ME OR RC.

My point wasn't that it wasn't you or RC, it was that I was thinking one of ooba, singersigner, Chrono and Robo was lying about their role.

On that front, I'm pretty sure it's not ooba or singersigner based on my post above. Chrono is looking better now that the PM thing has been cleared up, and my suspicion of Robo is based on links to Seraphim/M=W, which might make him a bad lynch for today anyway.

@Chronopie: You said this at the start of day 3:

But why roleblock a roleblocker (i.e me) that had declared that they were going to RB either M=W or xvart?

Possible to allow a kill through from declared target?

How does this line up with your current reason for voting me?

However you haven't painted yourself in a very glamorous light this game so far.

Let's not pull any punches, I've played like crap in this game. If your main problem is meta then I can point you to numerous other games where I've played like crap under similar circumstances.

ooba is scum with Erg0.
Moving on.

I bow before your amazing powers of logical deduction.

gandalf did a very transparent sidestep/redirect on this point, also. Since I obviously need to ask this question directly...

@gandalf: why are you so quick to believe Yosarian's version of events?

[Erg0]

I can't think of a good explanation for the lack of results, but I also have serious doubts that a Godfather-type role would give a "no result" on a cop investigation. Combined with my thought process on the ooba/ss thing, I don't think he's a recruiter.

I'm believing Yos simply because it doesn't make that much of a difference. Therefore, there's no reason for him to lie. Maybe his cult is larger than he says. That just means town has already lost, in which case we don't care anymore.

Actually, it kinda does make a difference. Yos has directed us away from using a valuable information source, namely relationships between recruits and their recruiters. If his cult knows that there's no role-based information pointing to their recruiter then this is a pretty good way to get the town looking at other people.

I'm curious why Yos didn't answer my question about his recruiter's name. Keeping his options open for later misleads, I guess.

Duh, because everyone knows that only scum have roleblockers! (aside from in wonky games like your MWTT, *shakes fist*)

I might be misunderstanding this, but didn't you investigate Chrono and get a town result?

[Erg0]

I'm curious why Yos didn't answer my question about his recruiter's name.

(shrug) I don't see how it benefits my side at this point. There's no reason for me to just share random information here.

Well it'd prevent the other cult from co-opting your weakened position at a later date, for one thing.

@ooba: I've said twice that I don't think you're a recruiter, but frankly I'm not in the right frame of mind for a Poro/RC-style argument right now. I would describe my reasons as "quality over quantity", if anyone cares to review.

My favoured lynch is gandalf right now, will write a proper case up tomorrow to try and get us out of this rut.