Zachtown in the mountains (Game over TOWN WINS!)

[havingfitz]

Will read asap.

[havingfitz]

Checking in.

I'm about halfway through my read. I'm out most of today but I will try to finish up and post my thoughts/vote.

[havingfitz]

Done reading...but it's late and I'm not as coherent as I'd like to be. I'll post thoughts/vote tomorrow after I have a chance to do a few ISOs.

[havingfitz]

After finishing my read I did not have a gut suspicion towards Percy and following an ISO to see what all the attention was about, nothing really jumped out at me. I.e. I’m not interested in a Percy lynch att.

The other frontrunner atm seems to be RedCoyote. His name did not come to mind following my read so I did an ISO on him. He stated off with, IMO, a baseless vote on Sotty but retracted it after Oso chimed in. Then he votes Jason (post 158) for being concerned about outing a cop (following Nik’s fakeclaim). I myself did the exact same thing in my only other Mountainous game so I can see where Jason was coming from with his initial suspicions towards Nik. Before starting my ISO on RC I was leaning town for him but after my ISO I could see RC being scum. I do like his last few votes though and I share some of his suspicions (mainly Sotty and Furcolow). If it came to a D1-p2 lynch between RC and Percy I would definitely lean towards RC. Though I like other suspects more.

IAI's theatrics throughout the game have him high on my list. I hate self votes; he undermined someone's towntell on him (based on the amount of effort he put into his stats) by mentioning his stats weren't difficult to produce; and he thought Dry fit was town but voted him anyway. I realize the DF vote was to ensure a lynch of any kind but I myself am opposed to lynching town reads under any circumstances. Part of IAIs defense against this is that would he (IAI) as scum...profess DF to be town.
He also has my predecessor as his biggest scum read and accuses him of not taking a stance. How can you have this opinion when Oso very clearly stated his thoughts and backed them up with his vote. Also...why is your vote on Percy? I don’t see you voicing any suspicions towards him prior to DF’s lynch.

The fact DF had a chance to hop on the RC wagon and deflect momentum off of his own wagon strikes me as suspicious towards RC (who never put a vote on DF). I need to check the DF-RC interactions if any.

Furcolow...I really don’t care for his game (no offense Furc) and the way he has been all over the place in this game. His late unvote on Dry-fit (post 361) followed by an almost immediate revote on DF after IAI called him out on it is hard for me to dismiss. He did spend a lot of the day on DF’s wagon but he was on several others as well.

An ISO on DF finds him mildly coming to RC’s defense in post 107. He blasts Furcolow in post 159 and then proceeds to vote jason without little rationale. Then in post 255 DF appears to come to RC’s defense again...this time a little more adamant then in post 107. I’m not sure what to make of DF’s references to other players in his last post (post 340)...by this point he had 7 votes and could have been tossing out a few WIFOM seeds for us to consider...ex: ~”it’s best to ignore Furcolow’s play, IKD suspicions, a thin defense of Benmage and query regarding KScope. Since I’m not sure what to make of it I’ll ignore it for now.

I think my main suspect att is Sotty (Hi Sotty! ). Main reason as I finished my read was due to gut. I don’t know her suspicions towards Nik and her willingness to come off IAI’s wagon after he freaked out. Her comments regarding scum being able to talk during the day seemed off to me coupled with saying she had discussed day talk with the mod. I don’t guess that is a scum tell but it just doesn’t sit right with me. In 281 she laments that she will probably be moving her vote off Nik to DF or RC. She says,

I'll be honest, it's a toss up between those two for me. Both have horrible votes on Jason, both have been non committal (probably more Dry Fit than Red here). I'm leaning towards Red right now though. I will look though both ISOs before I leap.

Also...not sure why she is voting RC atm. She never voted RC in phase 1 and in fact made a decent case on his behalf when deciding to join the DF wagon vs the RC wagon. That said...if Sotty was scum (and Percy wasn’t) if would be easy for her to add to the momentum that is the Percy wagon.

Tl:dr, my list of suspects in no particular order is IAI, Furcolow, RC and Sotty and I would support any of their lynches in phase2. I do not think Percy is scum and I do not think that Sotty and RC are scum partners. I’d be happy with either an RC or a Sotty lynch as in my mind the outcome of either would clear or implicate the other. I also think there is scum in the IAI and Furcolow pair with my frontrunner by a narrow margin being Furcolow.

That said....VOTE: RedCoyote

[havingfitz]

1. I'll admit my vote on Red in this phase was more of a gut reaction as I mentioned in early posts. Combine that with just not liking the Percy wagon and you get my Red vote. My top scum read is Nikanor and his lurking just cements that. Baby Spice is looking bad as well as I mention above

2. Red is my comprise scum read. In that my gut says he is scum and he is one of the leading wagons so that's where my vote is going. Deadline votes are bad and I think we can both agree on that. I don't understand why Red flipping town would implicate me at all, you are going to have to elaborate there.

3. I'd also like to know why me unvoting IAI is scummy to you.

4. You should probably know I am married to the mod, that might explain that post a little better. As to why I would be talking to the mod pregame anyway. I'm going to agree I probably shouldn't have brought it up, but when Nikanor mentioned it my scumdar twinged so I engaged him about it.

5. What do you think of my case on Nikanor?

(Numbers input by me)
1. So despite giving RC props earlier in the game and voicing no real suspicions that I can see earlier in the game, you drop a vote on RC because you don’t like the Percy wagon. The problem I have with this is that you voice suspicions on Baby Spice who at the time you put a vote on RC....had the same size wagon. So why would you put a vote on someone you gave credit to when you could have put the same exact vote down on someone you suspect?

2. See 1. As for why RC flipping town would implicate you...I think you stand a good chance at being scum, but based on my RC ISO I do not think both of you are. So if RC was town it would not eliminate my read on you whereas if he flipped scum, IMO it would clear you.

3. You had reasons for voting IAI (ie it was not a RV) and after he does something which IMO is very suspect you unvote him (post 97) and drop a vote on Nikanor without any rationale. Then you keep your vote on Nik...while not giving any reasoning up thru at least post 180 where you continue to grill IAI (who you just unvoted after his ridiculous self vote). Then right before providing your rationale for your Nik vote you prompt IAI for his reasons for thinking Nik is town. And oh BTW...IAI (who you have unvoted) is also suspicious of jason....which seems to be the bulk of your case against nik (that is his suspicions towards jason).

4. Cool. Interesting. On that note...I have a family member in my house that plays mafia (he actually got me into it) and we have never participated in the same game on this site. I think if one of us ever did mod a game the other was in that it would be a lot easier around the house (in terms of maintaining integrity) if the non-modding housemate was scum. And I still find your interjection of something I have never come across in a game (scum daytalking) as suspect. Especially when the mod only mentions ‘establishing rules’ with scum’s ability to ‘night’ chat and not scum’s ability to chat in general. Also...and I hope neither of you take offense to this...if I was scum in a game that had a town member with a

c

lose

p

ersonal

r

elationship with the mod...it would make me very uneasy. Though a ‘scum +

cpr

with the mod’ would not bother me at all.

5. I gave it a glance and nothing struck me as terribly scummy.

This is a great post.

(post 437)

The only way it would be any better was if IAI's vote was on Nikanor instead of Percy but I will deal.

(bold input by me)
How is post 437 a great post? Because he lists Nik as one of his top two? Is that the only reason? I don’t really see anything great about it. Was it the part where he expresses suspicions towards Baby spice (who you refrained from putting a vote on in favor of RC)?

I hate self votes too. I'll be happy to explain it more after the game (and it was for a town reason).

As for my stats, your accusation "by mentioning his stats weren't difficult to produce" wasn't totally accurate (see underlined):

Well honestly it wasn't very hard. Setup a macro, looped it 5000 times, hit the macro button 8 times. Took all of a few minutes...

It was much easier than doing every possible outcome with corresponding probability over a 7 day game period, which is what I did for the utilize every lynch scenario

!

I didn’t make an accusation. Someone (I don’t recall) gave you town cred for all the ‘work’ you put in to your analysis. You go on to state “Well honestly it wasn’t very hard.” Don’t think of it as an accusation. Think of it as reading comprehension.

Yes I thought Dry Fit was town up until post 415 (his lynch scene).

100% disagree with you on settling for a no lynch D1 rather than voting for someone you have a town read on. Town reads can be wrong. Proof is in my play D1. Plus, a lynch will get you answers and guide you to scum, even if one is right on the town read.

Why are you bringing up a no lynch? I just said I don’t vote those I think are town. If the general consensus was that two lynch during the day were better than 1 or none (which I assume it was)....then why would you assume that the seven other players who weren’t voting Dry-fit at the time you put vote 8 down would not have produced the 2 votes necessary to lynch him? you did not have to vote someone you thought was town. I find voting people you think are town to be scummy and providing a poor reason even worse. On the other hand...if you do turn out to be scum it will be an interesting example of reluctant bussing.

I did have your predecessor as my biggest scum read D1. He had ONE FRIGGIN SUSPECT. That lack of a stance hits my scumdar all the day long. In regards to this question "How can you have this opinion when Oso very clearly stated his thoughts and backed them up with his vote." I stick by with what I said. It is in scums interest to make as few stances as possible. That way they can maneuver around easier on town wagons without contradicting themselves as it gets closer to a deadline.

But when one person has ONE FRIGGIN SUSPECT, and that suspect dies and they are scum, that is either the craziest friggin bus job ever or one solid townie. I am now 99.9% convinced your slot is town. See Post 418.

I agree with your assessment that Oso was town. I don’t agree with your assessment that he only voiced one suspect/suspicion in his brief time in this game. Other than his RV on you...at various points in the game he expressed suspicions, or voted for: RedCoyote, Percy, IAI (for real), Dry-fit, Furcolow and Benmage. Your THEATRICS regarding his ONE FRIGGIN SUSPECT are once again...theatrics. Which I find unnecessary (as town at least).

As for your last question, "Also...why is your vote on Percy? I don’t see you voicing any suspicions towards him prior to DF’s lynch", as you can see in 418 & my next post 437, I reread the thread knowing Dry Fits allegiance and those players jumped out at me.

Ok...thanks for now providing your reasoning.

Any other questions I can answer for you???

Not at the moment.

fitz's post 473 is well written. I'm glad he took the time to make this post today. There are parts that I disagree with (obviously the vote), but he's jumped into Oso's slot as a heavy town read very well.

There's a big omission though, and that's how exactly he has arrived at the position that Percy is town. I don't think this is a scummy omission though. I would just like him to address Percy with more depth given that Percy is still the biggest wagon.

I made a typo in my post regarding you. “I do like his last few

votes

though and I share some of his suspicions (mainly Sotty and Furcolow).” should read “I do like his last few

posts

though and I share some of his suspicions (mainly Sotty and Furcolow).” Also...my comment “Though I like other suspects more.” seems a bit out of place given that I am voting you. The main reason for my vote on you above my other suspects is that your wagon is bigger and I think your flip would help town regardless of your alignment.

That said....after further review while answering Sotty and IAI’s posts...I have to put you at worst 3rd on my scumlist and I would prefer to see their flip instead of yours. Based on my answers 1-3 of Sotty’s post to me above....

UNVOTE: VOTE: Sotty7

[havingfitz]

@RC...forgot to address the "big omission..."
The only thing scummy regarding percy IMO was his absence from the Dry-fit wagon. But that doesn't really mean anything as not everyone off the DF wagon can be scum and I would be surprised if there was scum on the DF wagon as well. The "big omission" is due to an absence of suspcion.

[havingfitz]

There is probably more I should respond to but I've been tied up in other games since yesterday and I wanted to get a few thoughts down before this game grew much.

@jason...can you form an opinion without Sotty? What do you do in games she isn't in with you? Seriously.

2. See 1. As for why RC flipping town would implicate you...I think you stand a good chance at being scum, but based on my RC ISO I do not think both of you are. So if RC was town it would not eliminate my read on you whereas if he flipped scum, IMO it would clear you.

Ugh... this doesn't answer my question. I don't understand the premise you have formed based on “it's you or Red” From what I have seen of your case on me, it looks like we are both independently scummy of the other. So this hardline stance just looks poor and is a possibility of you lining up lynches.

I've put the both of you into my top four so you could say I've lined up at leasst 4 lynches in my mind. However...I've also said I don't think you and RC are both scum so if Red (or you) was the lynch today and turned out to be scum I would move off my suspicions of you (or Red). That's not exactly lining them up....is it?

As to your point four I suppose that's fair enough. If enough people feel this way I can replace out. I don't play the game to cheat but I am not willing to comprise the game just by being here. For the record I felt Nikanor bringing that up in the first place as scummy. There was no need to talk about that but he went out of his way to do so. I think it was an attempt to gain some town cred to suggest he had no idea about the scum day talking. He is more than smart enough to lay that kind of ground work.

I do not think Nik bringing up the scum talk (or not) at night was scummy. He was bringing it up as a possible balancing move by the mod because of the way the game was set up (apparently in such a way that would seem to favor town iirc?). As for my point four....I have absolutely no problem with you being in the game and in fact I prefer you in it until you are lynched (since atm I think you are scum)

@Red...I'm just happy to form cases on the people I suspect. I'm not going to justify not having a scum read on someone. I did not see anything w/ Percy that made me think...'Hmmm...that's scummy.' There are four other people that are doing that for me and that's enough to keep me busy atm.

[havingfitz]

But the deadline is coming up, are you willing to comprise to get a lynch?

I am willing to compromise (assuming that’s what you meant when you said ‘comprise’ again) to a degree...as long as it’s on someone at least near the top of my suspcions. That said, my hop to you has not received any support and it should be on one of the wagon frontrunners. A quick ISO of Baby Spice does not trigger any suspicions for me so she’s not an option for me. Furcolow and IAI are not getting any attention so that leaves me back at RedCoyote.

I continue to not have any suspicions of note towards Percy so he will not be getting my vote today. I looked over RC’s case on Percy to see what excellent case he (RC) has made on him in light of his continued desire for me to explain my read on Percy. Speaking of my read on Percy....this really annoys me:

fitz, when pressed, is unable to tell us why he feels that Percy is town.

Show me where I have said Percy is town? Don’t confuse a lack of suspicions with a town read...he’s just not high enough on my scumlist atm to bother with. And don’t assume I am unable to do anything. Your little attempt at reverse psychology mixed with misquoting me is noted. As I said above...Sotty and the others I suspect don’t seem to be going anywhere which leaves me back with you.

UNVOTE: VOTE: RedCoyote

[havingfitz]

Oh, just for fun, while I take my shower:

N.E.I.

Having major powercut issues this evening... postings will be sporadic depending on electric staying on... its been off and on 4 times this evening so far.

T.M.I.

---

I need to take a closer look at Benmage. He's so obvtown and the best player I've ever been in a game with. OMG!!!!

I'm certain he is the key to a town victory.

[havingfitz]

So we're lynching Benmage next then, hmmm?

QFT

[havingfitz]

So where are we? Roughly 5.5 hours until deadline?

Locke....RC has had his say. If you support an RC lynch over a D1P2 no lynch....why wait for someone else to hammer? If you are not convinced RC is scum but prefer his lynch to a no lynch...say so and hammer. If you are not prepared to hammer under any circumstances...then say that instead.

I just don't understand the "I will hammer....but I'll wait a bit longer in case someone else wants the honors" sentiment. If you want...I'll unvote...you can put him at L-2, then I will provide the hammer.

BTW...worthless HF info....I get a tad bit impatient the night before Christmas. Believe it or not.

[havingfitz]

Good job town.

Did the scum QT ever get posted?