Zachtown in the mountains (Game over TOWN WINS!)

[Mina]

Really.

I remember you saying in the

A Clash of Kings

Mafia graveyard topic that you prefer being town to scum.

Why is this game different?

[Mina]

Ah, never mind. I was thinking of post #561. Checking back, Benmage doesn't say anything about his favourite role, just the team he roots for. I could have sworn he'd implied he preferred

being

town because he just coasted all the time as scum.

And hi to all the people I've never played with before.

[Mina]

Um, I have no idea who's scum yet, because I haven't got a chance to do more than skim through the thread, but since my brain broke from that most recent I am Innocent post...

...I am Innocent, did you think that was a hammer?

How's this. If you're afraid of "losing the game for us,"

replace out

.

Or even better, actually make a case on someone who's scum, and vote for that person in order to get

that other player

lynched. How the hell are you saving the town from a mislynch by ENSURING YOU GET LYNCHED MORE QUICKLY? You're just cutting discussion short, giving fewer people a chance to take stands, and letting scum keep their hands clean.

But probably replace out, because now people will all go, "Oh my God, he's APPEALING TO EMOTION," and hop on your wagon.

Oh my God. I hate irritating "self-sacrificing" Vanilla Townies who think they're being

soooo

selfless by handing the scum a free mislynch on a silver platter.

(/in before "You just called him town! How would you know that unless you're scum?")

Also, sorry for missing RVS. I'll have a post with actual content soon.

[Mina]

Sorry. An ongoing game was sucking my soul out last night, and I fell asleep before getting around to this one.

I agree with Sotty and Elmo that I am Innocent vs. Benmage looks like town vs. town (at least in retrospect). I sided with Benmage in their early interaction; I thought Benmage had a point that IaI's early posts were IIoA when everyone had agreed, and Benmage quickly correcting himself when he noticed his mistake. Also, Benmage bullying people is a null tell.

I'm a bit annoyed. Because IaI made so many bad arguments before that self-vote, and on principle, throwing an antitown hissy fit shouldn't manipulate people off his wagon...but it feels genuine. Call me a sucker, but I'm buying it. So I'll direct my attention elsewhere.

================================================================
This is a horrible wall, but I'm better at poking at random stuff that sticks out than at coming to solid reads based on all that random stuff. Questions and noteworthy stuff it in chronological order:

Page One

Wouldn't it make more sense to lynch the first day and then see what we decide from there?

This was something I'd meant to ask you on in pregame before being side-tracked by another game. By "see what we decide from there," were you arguing that we should use both lynches, or just that we should lynch first before no-voting?

Percy, do you genuinely believe that Benmage and RedCoyote are more likely to be scum because they stated loudly in the thread that they weren't scum? Or were you joking? Because you never follow up on that line of questioning at at all. It seems like a bit of an easy dig.

*******

Page Two

Most of this is RVS votes and Benmage v. IaI back and forth that I've already given my opinions on.

Only thing that sticks out:

Make sense?

Um...this is...cryptic. Exactly whom are you replying to here?

*******

Page Three

I don't think IAI's numbers are IIoA, because he clearly states after giving us the information that he doesn't like the plan. Additionally, he isn't saying that Benmage is scummy for suggesting it, he's just crunching the numbers for the town's benefit. Benmage getting defensive looks significantly worse than anything else here.

Oso already pointed out that IaI

had

called Benmage scummy, but explain what you mean by "defensive." What in particular about Benmage's reaction was suspicious? How do you think Town Benmage should have reacted?

Hey Locke, who do you think will win this game, town or mafia?

This is random. Nikanor, why are you only asking Locke this? And what do you expect to learn about his alignment from his answer?

Unvote; Vote: Nikanor for not catching that before Oso did.

This is the lamest vote ever, and feels like deflection. If you can't keep track of your own posts, why do you expect Nikanor to do it for you? Now, if you think not noticing you made a mistake is scummier, how is writing a whole case based on that mistake scummy?

jason, when you wrote this post, did you notice that Oso had already said the same thing about I am Innocent noticing. You don't bring anything new to the table.

Attacking mongoose's #62 feels like shooting fish in a barrel...but

eww

. I'm curious as to why all those who accused IAI of IIoA said nothing about this post.

******

Page Four

Disagree with most of jason's arguments on this page (he tends to exaggerate minor things as scummy), but I'm having trouble deciding if they're disingenuous.

Not crazy about how Sotty planted a seed of doubt against RedCoyote by implying that maybe, just

maybe

, he'd planned his slip on purpose...because he's crafty, you know...but oh,

no

, she's not accusing him of anything, just

speculating

.

Imkingdavid and mongoose have a contest on who can be more noncommittal and middle-of-the-road. I'm torn on who's scummier (and whether their behaviour can be attributed to n00bishness). On the one hand, at least mongoose provides actual opinions and a vote. On the other hand, Imkingdavid's reaction to IaI seems real-ish, and mongoose qualifies every opinion with "I dunno, he could be town, but he could also be scum."

I agree with this post. I think the people who lead discussion away from lynching tend to be scum, and the stats didn't help this. However, I am innocent does list his suspicions and they seem to be decent so for now I think he is town.

Why exactly do you think I am Innocent's suspicions were decent? Which ones in particular were decent?

I think it's extremely obvious that IAI was mistaken about if/when Benmage retracted his plan. It's possible for him to be mafia and mistaken, but being mistaken is still null. I also think it's fairly obvious that Benmage isn't really taking IAI's defence on board, which fits with my impression of Ben from the last time we played together.

This is the one area where I see jason's POV. Why are you speaking for IAI? Let IAI answer for himself if he was mistaken about the timing. In fact, Benmage actually quoted the post in which he'd retracted the plan, and IAI misinterpreted it.

Page Five

In other news, I don't have much to bring to the plate offensively at the moment. Elmo, Percy, Sotty, Oso... all making valid points and good posts. benmage is a little sloppy but, like IAI, I don't really see anything sinister about him.

This feels like sucking up.

Really? You don't think his self-voting tantrum was anti-town? And what is the purpose of your unvote?

unvote. Vote: Oso. He's put far too much effort into analyzing the votes on him. I also agree that his attack on Red is stretching.

I rate this first non RVS-post of the game a 3/10 for effort.

I'll let Imkingdavid answer himself on his definition of "antitown," but do you suspect I am Innocent, dry-fit? Do you think his behaviour is a sign of scumminess?

I think I'll just sit on the sidelines and watch the Percy-Sotty debate unfold before weighing in.

Question to all those voting Nikanor or saying you support his wagon after Locke cast the first vote for him: what in particular makes you suspect Nikanor over another lurker? Is it just that he's already a viable bandwagon?
==========================================================
tl;dr:

Too many players need to step it up. Furcolow, Kaleidoscope, Nikanor, Locke...

I've changed the vote at the end of this page several times. Of the stronger players who are actually playing the game, I suspect Red Coyote most, although I get the occasional paranoid niggle from others. I'd originally thought Oso was town, but Elmo has a good point about how he immediately interpreted RC's slip in the worst possible way.

But on second thought...this may be picking on the newbie, but I'd like to try something.

VOTE: mongoose

That said, I may change this when I get a chance to do some meta research into his ordinary playstyle.

Actually being

caught up

after a catch up post feels awesome. Yay for games that don't grow two pages an hour!

EBWOPreview: I was going to ask Zach to prod Furc, but apparently he's posted...and is probably scum. Goody. I may just change my vote to him tomorrow.

[Mina]

EBWOP: I see I didn't finish proofreading a lot of that post, but the only time I think it obscured my meaning:

jason, when you wrote this post, did you notice that Oso had already said the same thing about I am Innocent noticing. You don't bring anything new to the table.

I meant to say, "did you notice that Oso had already said the same thing about IaI calling Benmage scummy?"

Also, I mischaracterized I am Innocent's response to Benmage. This is what he said:

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

Elmo,

where the hell

did you get the idea that I am Innocent had missed that post in the first place? Again, why are you making excuses for him instead of reading the thread?

Oh! And something I wanted to ask Percy about:

(Also, Benmage said he forgot that the flips weren't instantaneous, but it sure looks to me like he read the OP and didn't read the Rules post.)

So what do you think the scum motivation of this would be?

[Mina]

To be honest, I'm having severe problems concentrating on this game right now, because of [REDACTED]. So my heart's not really in this today.

Instead of writing another giant soul-sucking catch-up post, I'm just going to make a bunch of scattershot posts as I go.

I still need to check his other games, but I've lost my will to continue this wagon after that wide-eyed response from mongoose. It would be like shooting Bambi.

UNVOTE: mongoose

Leaning toward a RedCoyote vote at the moment, but hang on. I'm not fully caught up yet. Need to figure out the jason mess and get a better read on dry-fit and Furcolow.

How did he misinterpret it? It's not terribly easy to follow what IAI's saying, so maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick.

I'd noticed that wasn't really accurate, which was why I corrected myself in #111:
Also, I mischaracterized I am Innocent's response to Benmage. This is what he said:

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

So basically, I don't like that you were so quick to defend him

to the point that you gave false reasons for his behaviour

. Yes, it's the irritating and overused "you're acting as though you know his alignment" tell; I understand the temptation to rush in to help a floundering townie. But where did your town read on him come from? Was it

solely

because you'd thought he'd missed Benmage's post?

Percy's answers satisfied me (his posts don't have that calculated "Look at how blindingly townish my painstakingly formatted text walls are, everyone!" vibe they did when I saw him as scum). RedCoyote's...eh. It's not so much that his arguments themselves are bad, but that he just comes across as oily and insincere and ingratiating in everything he says. It's hard to pinpoint what I mean, but a few examples:

Goodness, I think everyone here would probably benefit from slowing down and reading a little more carefully. XD

Seriously though, what do you want me to say? I made an early attack and was rightfully swatted back for not doing all my homework. That necessarily kicks my impression down a notch or two on the game as a whole. Now I'm going to have to think twice before I throw my weight at someone of more consequence, so to speak.

Rest assured, however, if I see something flagrant, be it in that group or not, I won't hesitate.

Can people tell me if this is normal with RedCoyote?

When you say, "can't keep track of your own posts", I'm assuming you mean, "can't keep track of other's posts". If this is wrong then let me know.

Nikanor's first post in the game is a dud, and it wasn't just an expectation of him analyzing all the posts prior to his. I was more concerned with the fact that Nikanor didn't really address anything of value. In other words, my vote could've just as easily came with the tagline, "for completely dodging everything important going on".

No, I meant "can't keep track of other's posts." I meant "can't keep track of your own posts." Because I think it's

ridiculous

that you voted Nikanor for not commenting on a mistake you yourself made.

After Oso voted for you for the contradiction, this is what you said:

Whoops. Good catch, Oso. I missed that post entirely.

Unvote; Vote: Nikanor for not catching that before Oso did.

Why did you mention the contradiction in the first place if it was a generic "stop posting fluff" vote? This sounds like you're trying to justify yourself after the fact.

You're definitely going to have to elaborate on this one. I'd also like you to talk a little bit more about Oso in your next post (especially if you're taking a liking to Elmo's arguments).

In all honesty, I don't have that much to say about him. I don't have a problem with his later posts. Basically, my initial gut vibe on Oso was town, but I thought Elmo had a good point that he was making too big a deal of your slip by trying to calculate scum motivations for it. It was the kind of thing where I didn't feel all that strongly about him, but I could intellectually agree with Elmo's argument that Oso's accusations were outlandish.

What made me think Furcolow was probably scum was the cautiousness of his first post, particularly the bolded:

I'm here. My girlfriend is in the other room, and we are arguing.
I have to catchup on an ongoing game, and have 5 pages to read here. I might have to put it off for a few hours... probably less.
Anyone want to give me a quick synopsis?
What is the best wagon? Nikanor, IAmInnocent, RedCoyote, Oso?

I see some people are not on the wagons with multiple votes, yet lynching is good for town D1 as it gives the uninformed side of things we're on information.

Promise to catchup.

I know the setup is open, too, does anyone have any idea as to the most likely setup(s)? I'd like to know for analysis. I believe I will be making a word document or spreadsheet this game, just to try something new.

Him not noticing that the set-up was GIVEN IN THE MOD POST is probably a null tell, and I know placeholder catching up posts of this kind are always non-substantial. But he makes a lot of useless observations that seem designed to fake helpfulness even though they say nothing at all. Telling the town it's a good idea to lynch, for example. Bragging about his "analysis." And asking people to tell him who the best wagons were. Furcolow always spews the thread with crap arguments, but I'd got the impression he usually doesn't care about pleasing people or following other's opinions.

And speaking of which...hey, Furcolow, how's that word document coming along? That spreadsheet? What information exactly were you planning on putting there? What analysis?

I've heard that he's quieter and less prone to spamming as scum. But since then he's reverted to his charming obnoxious and irrational self. To be entirely honest, I've kind of skimmed over his posts, so I should give them a closer look to see if there's anything scummy beyond the usual inability to come to a coherent conclusion.

...But wait a minute. Why did you ask me this question? Because you didn't agree with my Furcolow read, or because of something else? (There is a very specific reason I'm asking this.)

...Dammit. I have to get off the computer now, but an answer to Sotty and comments on jason (to be honest, I can't make up my mind on him) coming later.

Mod note: Removed excess quote tag

[Mina]

Dammit.

Mods: could you fix the formatting of the above post to close the quotation block after this:

Also, I mischaracterized I am Innocent's response to Benmage. This is what he said:

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

[Mina]

I'm stuck posting from a phone, so I can only make scattershot comments:

Honestly, this looks like a waste of time to me. Do you even think this is suspicious?

Um...do you want an honest answer?

Come on, I have a town read on IaI as well. Of course it's not suspicious in isolation. It's just a random minor thing that stuck out, that often comes from town, but made me wonder if you were possibly trying to play the reasonable townie who stayed on everyone's good side. You came across as the kind of player who'd be hard to read as scum, and it was all I could pin on you. I often start Day One by asking lots and lots of questions poking at every minor thing just to get a glimpse into people's thought processes. So I don't think it was a waste of time at all.

But I thought that was a good answer, so have a cookie.

Who was it who kept saying how strange it was that RedCoyote was scummy but no one is voting for him? Eh, I'

[Mina]

Goddammit, I hate posting from a phone. For some reason, it wasn't letting me scroll down to the last line.

I meant to say, "who was it who said that it's strange how everyone agrees that RC is scummy, but don't vote for him? Whatever. I still haven't processed all the words in this thread, yet, but I'll take the bait.

VOTE: RedCoyote

[Mina]

Aaaaaaaaah, I don't have access to a computer right now, and my phone is low on batteries. So that this isn't a total non-substantial prod dodge, I might as well take this opportunity to answer Sotty's questions from way back. I can probably manage that before my battery dies.

I'm a bit annoyed. Because IaI made so many bad arguments before that self-vote, and on principle, throwing an antitown hissy fit shouldn't manipulate people off his wagon...but it feels genuine. Call me a sucker, but I'm buying it. So I'll direct my attention elsewhere.

What arguments of his were bad to you? I don't like that I have to ask you this when you essentially ask mongoose the same kinda thing in the same post.

Why exactly do you think I am Innocent's suspicions were decent? Which ones in particular were decent?

You'd have a point if I'd voted for him or attacked him in that post. But I didn't see the purpose of wasting breath poking holes in the arguments of someone I believe strongly is town. What would it accomplish? Showing that I'm smarter than IaI?

I'm on my phone so I can't scroll back and look for posts, so maybe I'm misrembering, but just an example: his whole line of attack on Benmage implying that Ben's NL suggestion was scummy, when he didn't even push his "plan" for more than a post. In fact, Dry-fit didn't even correct Benmage by saying they should never NL, just that we should lynch first before making our second decision. Benmage obviously realized on his own that it was a good idea. I can give more if you want, but again, I don't really see the point unless it's to make I am Innocent look bad and show off my rhetorical skills.

This feels like sucking up.

Scummy?

Yep, that was my implication.

@Red: I need time to sit down in front of a computer and reread, but off the top of my head, my other suspects are Furcolow and imkingdavid (I noticed some iffy stuff in their ISO, although that sadly might not be a scumtell with the former). I haven't taken a close enough look at Dry-fit to see if I like the case on him.

@Percy: Why do you have a town read on Locke, Kaleidoscope, and Jason?

@Sotty: Same question, except with the former two.

[Mina]

Unfortunately, I'm

L/A this week

. Since I haven't given this game enough attention, though, I'll try to get in a more substantial post on Furcolow/Dry-Fit/Imkingdavid later tonight.

Looked back at RC, and I still don't really see it. He missed one of IAI's posts and admitted as much; I've certainly done the same as town and I don't think it's as much of a scumtell as some are indicating.

That's not even remotely the case on him. I think Oso was the only person who voted for him solely for missing that post. For me, at least, what I found more suspicious about the incident is that he immediately tried to turn it around on Nikanor. (He's since stated that his vote was for other reasons and his comment was flippant, although his explanation rings a bit false to me.)

But I'll be entirely honest. Many of my problems with Red Coyote are pure gut. Take that for what it's worth, because I find my gut-based scumreads are a bit...um, hit-or-miss. But other people have corroborated me on this, and I'm more cavalier than I'd normally be with voting for bad vibes when most of the other players in this game look town and we're allowed lots of mislynches. I also agree that his most recent posts have improved somewhat, so I may reconsider my vote when I'm caught up.

(On a fluffier note, since some people are arguing over whether the set-up favours scum...I just did the math, and town is allowed six mislynches. So as long as 7/13 townies manage to look more townish than the three scum, we win. )

[Mina]

EBWOP: Just to clarify: "He's since stated that his vote ON NIKANOR was for other reasons."

[Mina]

Sorry to Zachrulez and to the other players for being utterly useless. I just keep falling further and further behind, and many of the major events that have transpired today (such as Furcolow's meltdown and Percy's contradiction in suspects) have flown over my head. But my V/LA just ended, so starting next week, I'll be able to devote much more time to this game.

If people think my lack of contribution is adversely affecting the town, I can replace out, but I don't want to do that to Zach.

It's entirely my own fault for missing out on all the "town points" (to quote Red Coyote ) I'd have got by voting or attacking Dry-Fit instead of just repeatedly mentioning that I need to reread him. (This is definitely something I deserve to be pressured on. In all honesty, I was so behind on this game and it takes me so long to post at a level I'm comfortable with that I kept putting off a huge catch-up post. I would have been okay with a Dry-Fit lynch because his posts came off as very safe, but suspected RC/Furc/imkingdavid more.) But anyway, town probably has this in the bag now.

================================================================================================
I've reread the game a few times (although TBH, I've wrapped my brain around the earlier events more than the later ones) and stayed up late last night trying to finish this post, but I'll have to leave for work soon. I still haven't got to Baby Spice, Nikanor, or LordWhyt, but if I wait, the game will be over before I finish a post. I'll cast my vote tomorrow (leaning toward a LrdWhyt vote). I'll just stick to general impressions first.

-After the DF flip, I'm on the fence re: Furcolow. I originally suspected Furcolow for seeming cautious and eager to please (um...for Furcolow, anyway). His post sucking up to Percy and lecturing us on how , his useless "I'm making spreadsheets and totally planning to analyze this game"...it all gave me the impression he was nervous and trying not to make waves. I also hated how he claimed not to know there were roles and then tried to use it. But his bizarre spastic flip between DF and RC didn't look much like a bus.

Oso/having fitz, and jason look squeaky clean (although I was gradually getting a town read on both anyway) as a result of the flip. Locke is succinct and hard to read, but that's just his style. Given that he was early on the Dry-Fit wagon, it's enough for me to trust him for today. He needs to post more, though (said the pot to the kettle).

I've disagreed with almost all of I am Innocent's reads this game, and logic says his hop onto Dry-Fit looks a lot like a bus...but I had a really strong gut town read on him. Elmo looks worse for not going after Dry-Fit, but I got town points from our early interactions. Put him at neutral, leaning town. I'm not familiar with Benmage's scum meta, but he's always this abrasive and overconfident in his arguments when he's town. I disagree with him that the flip makes him look super-confirmed, but I don't see anything unusual there.

I've liked most of what Sotty's been doing this game. Sotty's attacks on Dry-Fit could go either way. Hers is the first vote that really looks like it could be a bus. But a couple of things she's done have rung as true: for example, her reasons (which came across as more of a townie thought processe than Percy's). And I'll trust jason's towntell on how she used his meta to defend him. I read Gonzo Mafia a while back, and remember Zach suspecting her as scum for misrepresenting his meta.

-Kaleidoscope is most likely town for his early hop on Dry-Fit. I find players like Kaleidoscope (who just post one-line suspicions like "X is so obvscum and lynch him!" with utter confidence) hard to read, though. Seriously, people! My philosophy is that if you cannot write a five-hundred word essay explaining the pros, cons, negatives, and positives of your top suspect, then it's not a real suspicion, just a guess. Kscope, can you do me a favour? What REASONS do you have for suspecting Red Coyote. Write one paragraph selling the lynch to me.

-Eek. I'd planned to vote Lrdwhyt in this post (although mostly for imkingdavid's play), but then I saw this from ikd, in reaction to Nikanor's day-cop claim:

And what is your goal behind claiming this early, when you're not even at L-1?

I didn't like ikd's case on Benmage, and he made a few very wishy-washy and filler comments. Lrdwhyt's reaction to Dry-Fit's flip also seems off.

-Re: the three players being wagoned, I feel as though I'm missing something here from the flip. Everyone's going, "Ha ha, you're all busted! All...three of you, even though at most two of you can actually be scum."

Red Coyote:

Eh, it makes me uncomfortable that I don't have anything on him but gut, and yet he keeps doing so many little things that bother me even as he makes long, helpful, protown posts. For example, saying how "Mina is so focused on me" when I hadn't really attacked him that hard. Repeatedly making forced jokes and talking to people like they're naughty little children. I can give a list of quotes, but it's so many little things.

That said, his massive wagon analysis is good, and the last paragraph in particular (with his last words) makes me doubt my Red-scum read. I suppose some players can fake that level of helpfulness as scum, but the last part did seem sincere in comparison to the rest of his posts.

I could probably compromise on him, but my mind isn't made up yet.

Percy:

I'll be honest; I still haven't quite grokked what happened with Percy's contradiction. And considering only 2/15 player are scum, I doubt the speed of the Percy wagon says anything. But so far, I'd be against a Percy lynch.

Ironically, part of what's making me waver on Percy is that he's

playing too badly

to be scum. In the two outings I've seen from him, he's bused ruthlessly, and was much more manipulative. This looks more like a townie whose opinions bit him in the ass. But I also got a MAJOR town tell from his reaction to Red's post. I pretty much had the same "Oh, shit!" reaction to Red Coyote's last words (and I've played in a game where Percy had that "oh shit!" reaction to a lynched townie's last words), so it makes me feel a bit better about Percy.

-Eek, I really have to go now, so I'll save my thoughts on mongoose/Baby Spice and Nikanor for later. mongoose did a lot that was suspicious. But to be honest, I haven't read BS that carefully yet, so I'm not sure what the smoking gun was.

============================================================================
If anyone has questions for me, feel free, because I know I'm usually a lot more contributive and easy to read than this.

[Mina]

I'll just make a few scattershot posts so as to get my thoughts in order.

(On a reread, it shows that my giant wall was posted on my way to work. I left half my sentences unfinished and omitted some of my reasons for suspecting people.)

Hey, Baby Spice. I'm just curious about something. Did you notice that I was on V/LA for a week (during the entire time that Dry-Fit was wagoned)?

I've reread how the Dry-Fit lynch went down (although it was such a clusterfuck, what with Furcolow flailing like a dying fish, that I'm probably missing something), and consider this my official statement white-knighting the Percy wagon. Seriously, I'd thought that from the way people were piling up on him that he'd outright contradicted his reads and voted for a player he didn't suspect over Dry-Fit. So, the big catch is...he listed Dry-Fit as a suspect, but pushed the lynches of other players he listed as bigger suspects? I kind of like Red's point about Percy listing RC and DF as scumreads but saying he doesn't know enough to judge them, but I wouldn't call it a smoking gun. I could see town or scum taking the same stances as Percy, so it comes down to whether his explanations for his actions feel honest and well-intentioned and whether the rest of his play looks genuine. And although I was mixed on Percy for much of the day, his posts since DF's flip have seemed very town.

I'll reread RC to see if I agree with Locke's assessment that his pushing of an alternate wagon felt natural. Locke, I don't think you ever responded to my comment that the case on Red is not just that he voted Sotty prematurely. I prefer lynching him to Percy, but some of the votes on Red this game have felt off.

I think we should be lynching someone off the wagon, but I'm not sure precisely how we narrowed it down to these two. Like, no-one has brought up Mina or Nikanor yet, and I don't know why. But right now, I'm not really motivated to find out when no-one's looking to change my mind, either.

What I said was that no-one has proposed lynching either of them for being off the wagon. In additition to that, as far as I've seen, actually no-one's seriously proposed lynching either of them; Sotty's not even voting Nikanor right now.

Um...maybe I shouldn't tempt fate, but in that case, why

aren't

you proposing a lynch of me or Nikanor?

What exactly is your point here? Are you saying, "Guys, there are nice juicy mislynch targets that you can make cases on, if you want, at which point I might jump on the wagon?" Are you saying we're better lynches than Red/Percy/LrdWhyt/Baby Spice? Are you saying someone should propose our lynch

for no other reason

than because we're off the wagon? You're not taking a stance on whether you oppose any of the viable lynches right now, AND you're leaving yourself open to vote pretty much anyone off the wagon. I'd normally appreciate an attempt to call attention to neglected players, but that last sentence about waiting for someone to convince you bugs me.

I know your vote is on RC, but are you opposed to a Percy lynch? Right now, is there anyone you suspect who is on the Dry-Fit wagon? How would you rank the six players off the Dry-Fit wagon, since you're apparently willing to lynch one of them? Why did you single out me and Nikanor, and not, say, LrdWhyt?

kingdavid's reaction to Nik's claim has my ears prick up (spoiler: he buys it)

I agree that IKD's reaction to Nikanor's claim is suspect. That pushes Lrdwhyt higher up my scum list, but I would really like to see more from him.

Okay, what do you mean by "suspect"? What exactly about IKD's reaction makes you think he's scum?

Because in fact, as strange as his reaction felt, that was one of the main things holding me back from voting LrdWhyt. Wouldn't ikd's immediately believing the claim (if he's scum) imply that jason is also scum? All those who commented on this also have jason as a town read. I can

maybe

think of a theory, but I'd be interested in hearing what you come up with first.

=====================
Likely to be town: IAM, jason, fitz, Locke, Benmage, Percy, Sotty (?), Elmo (?)
Scum remain in: Furcolow, LrdWhyt, Baby Spice, Nikanor, Red Coyote, Kaleidoscope (?)

If I was right about the six mislynches (Percy said five, but I'll redo the math and check), then this game is already won. Elmo, Kscope, and Sotty could really go either way, though.

Now my problem is choosing who in that bottom level to lynch. I have to admit, Red's mob analysis post (EBWOPreview: and his most recent post to some extent) looks quite town. I'm second-guessing myself.

[Mina]

Fuck. I've been having Internet problems today, and I have to leave tonight. It's too late for a LrdWhyt wagon.

Nikanor's replacement post came across as townish. Damn, though. I wish he was still around to answer questions. He never even reacted to the Dry-Fit flip. And welcome to the game, Thor.

Ack. Um...of the viable wagons...

VOTE: Baby Spice

I'll be honest. I'm not super-confident in this vote (BS is mostly on my suspect list by process of elimination), and don't think the "town" slip was that meaningful. I don't have strong scumreads yet. Elmo preempted me to the point that Red's defence that his play is scummier than normal

because it's a sixteen player mountainous game

is utterly ludicrous, but Red has said stuff recently that looks townish. Part of it is that since I'm behind, I'm playing more by general impressions, so maybe I'm missing the nuances of just what Red is misrepping in his back-and-forth with Sotty.

But I'll move my vote to Red tomorrow if a Baby Spice wagon doesn't take off. Red has given off a mix of towntells and scumtells, while Percy is giving me a strong gut town read.

Would be happy with a LrdWhyt wagon, if people miraculously jumped on him. IKD's interactions with Dry-Fit work well as distancing.

Kaleidoscope, why do you think Percy is scummier than Red Coyote? The only time I see you mention him before Benmage suggests his lynch is when you answer his questions and say that he's prone to OMGUS--and frame it as if you think he's a townie. Just repeating, "Percy is scum, lynch Percy and Red, why isn't Percy dead yet?" is rhetoric.

This time, sell me the

Percy

lynch in one paragraph or more.

Sorry, I forgot you'd explained your RC read because I remembered that wall as being mostly defence. That said:

1) I still don't like that your longest post of the game is 70% defence, and you only explained your read when asked on it.

2) I can see where you're coming from, but your reasons for suspecting Red could be better articulated:

My first RC vote was indeed random, but his way of posting never even convinced me to remove my vote from him. Post #55 of him is a simple post of making someone suspicious with hardly anything to go on, and in #60 he again joins a vote of someone else, potentially hoping for a bandwagon vote. (First Sotty, then Nikanor, all with very weak evidence for doing so). That was reason enough to keep my vote on RC for a while. Then in post #169, he even throws a half ass defense for dry-fit for no reason whatsoever. While in my eyes, dry-fits action is hell of a lot more scummy, RC reaction towards it is even weirder considering he wasn't even related to the action, yet defends the one player scummier then him.

So you suspect him because you think his votes were for weak reasons? Can you be more specific about what in particular you thought was weak about his points against Sotty and Nikanor? Also, why did you find Dry-Fit scummy? You don't explain it in that post.

And wait, you find Dry-Fit's action (do you mean his interactions with IKD and jason, or is there something else I'm missing) a hell of a lot scummier...but RC's reaction is weirder. Can you just clarify which did you find more suspicious: DF's action, or RC's defence of DF's action?

=============================================================

Percy has 6 votes, L-2...RC has 3, L-5....with the deadline this close the logical conclusion is to lynch Percy. Stop fighting the system, prove you aren't the sites newest biggest VI and vote Percy.

@Thor Vote Percy. Time is of the essence. I am confirmed town, so just follow me on this one.

Thor, prove you can think for yourself and vote for who you personally think is scummiest of Baby Spice, Red Coyote, and Percy. Ignore Benmage's attempt to bully you into doing what he says. I know I've been fooled by Percy as scum before, but the Percy case isn't 20% as good as Benmage thinks it is.

Benmage, how about we have an avatar/sig bet on whether or not Percy turns out to be scum at the end of this game? (The terms of this bet only apply if we're both town, obviously.) Whoever's wrong has to use the sig and avatar of the other player's choosing for a month.

Because I am starting to find it really annoying that you're always 100% confident in every single one of your opinions, in every game, even when the arguments and logic you're using to support your opinions aren't always very good. I don't mean to be harsh, but learn to rein your ego in a bit more. </rant>

Also, given that I'm next on your suspect list along Nikanor/Thor, I doubt you'll pay much attention to what I'm saying. But I just thought of something that makes Percy logically unlikely to be scum. Re: your argument that Percy's only pushing easy targets...um...leaving aside that he attacked Sotty early on, why isn't Percy pushing a Red Coyote lynch, the most viable counterwagon to him and easiest target of all? He's set himself up for ages to vote RC. Instead, Percy suddenly backing away from the only viable wagon other than himself, and is

criticizing

the Red Coyote wagon.

Seriously, to anyone voting Percy, explain to me what his scum motivation would be for that.

[Mina]

EBWOP: In all fairness, Nikanor

kind of

reacted to the DF flip, albeit only by saying Jason looked better for his reaction (goddammit, I wish Nikanor was here to explain this more).

...shit. I was supposed to leave an hour ago. Mafia eats my soul.

Note to self for when I have more time: look at all the people who were linking players to Dry-Fit

before

Dry-Fit's flip. I know jason made a case for Furc being DF's buddy before the flip, but dropped it...although I think jason is town.

[Mina]

Thor, you make me

Those were not meltdowns, dammit! They were just one-liners expressing indecision.

Please ignore the worse meltdown that occurred during the pages you didn't read.

I believe in giving less weight to towntells in replacing-in posts, since the replacement often had a glimpse into the town's perspective before being spoiled by his role PM...but awesome. Thor looks town.

By the way, whatever happened to Locke Lamora? He hasn't posted all week.

Going to get ready and then finish a couple of posts/responses today. (Really, the fact is probably response enough for Benmage...but I can't resist.) But after that, I'd be willing to hammer RedCoyote. I think what's tipped me over from doubting myself, to actually believing he has a good chance of flipping scum, was both the point Thor brought up about Red's reaction to jason's claim (I kind of skimmed over it, and missed that he voted jason not for thinking Nikanor had a guilty on him, but SOLELY for not knowing it was a mountainous game ) and this:

fitz, Mina, Sotty, Fur ... they're all effectively saying, in one way or another, that Percy is town because they feel it in their gut. fitz, when pressed, is unable to tell us why he feels that Percy is town. Mina has admitted to as much. Elmo is blatantly ignoring Percy in favor of his narrow focus on me over some technical issue with my play.

This is a misrepresentation. At least in my case, I've given reasons for why I think he's town (his reaction to your posts, for example, and his "contradiction" not being that damning).

And on a side note, my gut town reads are pretty awesome. (My gut

scum

reads, on the other hand... ) Town play often looks very natural and unscripted, so it's easy to pick up when someone isn't playing to the crowd. Sometimes I'll

lean

town on scum for bad gut or meta reasons (and then realize afterward that I missed major warning signs), and sometimes I'll think a scumbag is playing in a protown manner...but often, I'll just

know

someone is town. Percy has been looking increasingly obvtown with every post.

Anyone have a reason I should wait until tomorrow? I know Percy said he'd have something to say in twenty-four hours.

If Red flips scum, then that clears Furcolow, Kaleidoscope (neither of whom would flip back and forth between voting their own scumbuddies all day), and probably Sotty and Thor. That leaves Baby Spice and LrdWhyt. Personally, I actually think LW is more likely to be scum than Baby Spice (and it's a little weird how he's gotten so little attention compared to Percy/Red/BS/Nikanor to a lesser extent).

If Red flips town, I'll look more closely at Kaleidoscope and Sotty (I like a lot of what she's doing, but a few of her stances don't feel perfectly organic, as if she's hedging her bets a bit).

But I'll probably vote LrdWhyt tomorrow, either way. I'm ISO-ing BS, and to be honest, I don't find her scummy so much as hard to read and not the brightest bulb. LrdWhyt, on the other hand...seriously, just ISO him. His only content is 1) saying that the slip on, and 2) a huge list of opinions that seem to come from nowhere and consist of wishy-washy and vague one-liners. He doesn't have any solid opinions. On the off-chance I die tonight (stranger kills have been made), my last request is that you put serious pressure on him. Get him to explain those reads.

jason, I'm just curious. Why do you think Red is "scummy"? I don't think you've mentioned him before.

Well, Red, it looks like it's time for a claim.








(sorry, I couldn't resist. )

[Mina]

EBWOP: Goddammit, I always hit enter too early.

EBWOPreview: Kscope, at least let me finish my last posts when I get back from my shower. Goddamn it. I have hammer anxiety. I hate not using every single last second in the day. Maybe, um, someone will have a brilliant epiphany with five hours to go before the deadline?

1) By this:

(Really, the fact is probably response enough for Benmage...but I can't resist.)

I meant, this:

(Really, it should be response enough for Benmage that Red is now at L-1 twelve hours after Benmage assured us that no lynch but Percy was possible, because

all

the smart townies knew that Red was town, so you should all vote Percy even if you don't suspect him. But I can't resist.)

Oh, and Benmage, I notice you never took me up on that avatar/sig bet, but downgraded your suspicions from Percy to "he's obvscum" to "no other lynch but Percy is possible." Come on. Are you willing to agree to it? You could use an avatar.

2) By this:

His only content is 1) saying that the slip on, and 2) a huge list of opinions that seem to come from nowhere and consist of wishy-washy and vague one-liners.

I meant this...actually, I'm not going to use quote tags, but turn this into a formal case.

Lrdwhyt's (oops, I've been mangling his name all game ) only content is

1) saying that jason's slip isn't important, but that jason is still scummy

2) then wasting his time by picking apart

one

of jason's posts and make a point-by-point defence of IAI (notable: one of jason's points is that

I am Innocent uses too many statistics to fake scumhunting

--unfortunately, doesn't acknowledge this either way), which ends by him out-of-the-blue saying that

nothing jason's done after that looks scummy

3) not posting opinions on any other player in the game, but adding a throwaway line that he's considering a DF vote, but

would like to see him post more

(*cough, cough* coaching, *cough*), and of course never reacting to any of DF's later posts

4) writing a huge list of fluffy opinions that seem to come from nowhere and consist of wishy-washy and vague unsubstantiated one-liners...one of which is an opinion that

IAI is scummy for overusing statistics

!

Major cognitive dissonance from point 2.

Actually, guys, look at LW's interactions with DF. Thor called Kscope on the same early fence-sitting on DF (and I've been guilty of the same thing to some extent), but it's ridiculous. He almost looks too much like DF's buddy to be his buddy. Goddammit, why did I put off this reread until now?

...You know, it would be so hilarious if we started a Lrdwhyt counterwagon with twenty-four hours left before the deadline.

Oh, just for fun, while I take my shower:

VOTE: Lrdwhyt

I predict chances of this working at 0.17%, but it's not like my vote is any more useful on Baby Spice.

[Mina]

jason, can you answer my questions about your RC suspicions? Maybe you missed it because it's hidden in such a huge post.

Thor, that depresses me. I was hoping that my trademark on mafiascum would be something more like "cunning intellect" or "razor-sharp instincts" or "clear analytical mind" or "beautiful eloquence," not being an unstable lunatic. Personally, I thought I was known more for my rambling indecisive stream-of-consciousness wall posts.

Lrdwhyt is imkingdavid's replacement, yes. I was hoping more for people on the Percy wagon to join my Lrdwhyt push. RC peeps can stay where they are. I'm mostly wavering on Red because 1) since I've missed a lot of the game, I feel like I haven't put enough thought into evaluating his long posts to come to an informed conclusion, 2) his long DF wagon analysis was protown, 3) voting strong "helpful" players D1 makes me nervous, and 4) I initially got the same town vibes that Percy did from this:

In regards to myself, I'm a very realistic person, and I'm not in a good position. I put myself in this position by being too headstrong on jason and not open enough to what was going on around me. I'm an acceptable lynch, frankly, and I can't really blame the town if I'm chosen here. I created this post to make it up to y'all for my lack of objectivity in the middle of this game. All that I ask is, if you do lynch me, to go back and comb through this post. These are honest assessments from an honest, dead townie. If you don't lynch me, then I strongly recommend that we go after Percy, Sotty, or Fur, in that order.

...Yeah. When I put it like that, those are kind of crappy reasons. Even the "innocent" quote could probably be faked by competent scum.

But just let me try this first.

I'll respond to Lrdwhyt's recent post in a bit. Still stuff from Benmage and Kscope yesterday that I never answered.

[Mina]

VOTE: Lrdwhyt

Later, I'll respond to his and Kscope's posts from Day One (since I didn't get a chance to do that before the deadline), but he's still my best scum read. I'll also have...*twitch*

words

for Benmage and Percy in a bit. But first, answers to Sotty.

Mina is all over the place to me. She seems to be behind during most of the game which could be coloring my read of her. Her posts are wordy but sometimes I get the impression she is just writing words to have them there. Wall posts aren't always needed to make your point. This is probably just how she plays.

Uh-oh. Um...I saved a giant wall that I'd spent hours writing yesterday in response to your first post of the day (during which I rambled aimlessly about everything from my thoughts as I made Sentence #3 of Post #12 to what I ate for breakfast that morning). Maybe...maybe I'll edit some of it out.

Anyone who's ever played a single game with me as either alignment can corroborate that verboseness is a null tell from me. I just overthink and overexplain everything. But I'll try to tone it down if it's making my posts unpleasant to read.

================================================================

Can you elaborate on this?

This answer is going to be horrendously wishy-washy, particularly since I'll preface this by saying that there's a reason I said "look more closely at" as opposed to "rank them among my top suspects." And many of your posts look as though you're sincerely scumhunting. So I wouldn't vote you today.

But that said, might as well explain my thought process yesterday, even though this is essentially just trying to articulate gut vibes.

My first instinct was that your behaviour wrt Red fit with what I'd expect from scum subtly supporting a mislynch: not very aggressive, not much conviction in his guilt, but still unwilling to give him the benefit of the doubt. IIRC, you didn't find him suspicious until others did. Your heart didn't really seem into the Red Coyote case even as you consistently joined his wagon, and you suspected Nikanor and Baby Spice more.

On the other hand, you glossed over Red's towntells (for example, that huge wagon analysis post, those "dead townie walking" last words), and seemed to nitpick over minor points of his. Maybe I just don't find cases based on "I disagree with this minor assumption in this sentence of this post" particularly compelling

unless it's attacking me, in which case, OMGUS

. But I really didn't see where Red was misrepping you.

I also agree with the late Red Coyote that the timing of your Dry-Fit suspicions/vote would fit as bussing, and that Nikanor was an easy target. Speaking of which, why did you vote Red Coyote a week before the deadline, rather than push Baby Spice or Nikanor? Also, you mention being tempted by a BS wagon if it took off, IIRC. Why didn't you move to Baby Spice, particularly when there were three votes on her?

Lastly, your IAI stance niggled at my gut. (Mina-of-the-future will also tweak this to answer your question about my Percy vs. Sotty thoughts.) You were acting very protown early on, and I was never all that impressed with Percy's point that you set a trap for I am Innocent (it might have been fake-scumhunting on Day Two, but townies always nitpick over minor things early on to get the game moving). But I wanted to see how you'd defend yourself, and thought you could use a bit of pressure, so I decided not to rush in and say, "How dare you besmirch poor Sotty's fair name?"

But I got the "hedging your bets" vibe again after that. You unvoted after IAI's fit, but then you kept on engaging with him and bickering with him--which doesn't make much sense for someone you think is town. I got the impression you were trying to make him look scummy even while you paid lip service to his being town.

Checking your ISO, I see that you were defending yourself from his case on you, so that impression probably wasn't fair.

=============================================================

Also your vote on Lrdwhyt as the day was dying looks really bad considering there was absolutely no chance of shifting the wagon that way. Why did you avoid taking a stance on one of the three top wagons with your vote?

I did take a stance on the three top wagons:

Spoiler: Quotes, because my God, this is already way too long

Ack. Um...of the viable wagons...

VOTE: Baby Spice

I'll be honest. I'm not super-confident in this vote (BS is mostly on my suspect list by process of elimination), and don't think the "town" slip was that meaningful. I don't have strong scumreads yet. Elmo preempted me to the point that Red's defence that his play is scummier than normal because it's a sixteen player mountainous game is utterly ludicrous, but Red has said stuff recently that looks townish. Part of it is that since I'm behind, I'm playing more by general impressions, so maybe I'm missing the nuances of just what Red is misrepping in his back-and-forth with Sotty.

But I'll move my vote to Red tomorrow if a Baby Spice wagon doesn't take off. Red has given off a mix of towntells and scumtells, while Percy is giving me a strong gut town read.

Would be happy with a LrdWhyt wagon, if people miraculously jumped on him. IKD's interactions with Dry-Fit work well as distancing.

Going to get ready and then finish a couple of posts/responses today. (Really, the fact is probably response enough for Benmage...but I can't resist.) But after that, I'd be willing to hammer RedCoyote.

*I vote Lrdwhyt here*

Lrdwhyt is imkingdavid's replacement, yes. I was hoping more for people on the Percy wagon to join my Lrdwhyt push. RC peeps can stay where they are. I'm mostly wavering on Red because 1) since I've missed a lot of the game, I feel like I haven't put enough thought into evaluating his long posts to come to an informed conclusion, 2) his long DF wagon analysis was protown, 3) voting strong "helpful" players D1 makes me nervous, and 4) I initially got the same town vibes that Percy did from this:
<snip>
...Yeah. When I put it like that, those are kind of crappy reasons. Even the "innocent" quote could probably be faked by competent scum.

But just let me try this first.

Sotty, did you notice that my vote had been on Baby Spice, and that I'd expressed a willingness to hammer RC, when you said that it "looks bad"? In that case, are you saying that the townish move would have been to have left my vote on Baby Spice or to have hammered Red prematurely, just to show that I'm an uber-decisive stance-taker?

On the other hand, if you're asking why, twenty-four hours before the deadline, I moved my vote from Baby Spice to LrdWhyt, when I knew my counterwagon almost certainly wouldn't work...that's a fair question, and I'll be honest. It was 50% reaction fishing, 40% a spontaneous whim, 10% thinking I actually had a chance in hell of getting him lynched.

Thor's moving his vote from Baby Spice to RC killed the BS wagon. I decided there would be a net gain in information if I voted Lrdwhyt rather than leaving it on BS as I delayed hammering Red. What did I have to lose?

Thor, Benmage and Percy have seen me do random last-minute votes for an unlikely lynch before. Deadline wagons are often informative, both because it puts pressure on the wagoned player and because you can see if anyone scrambles to save the wagonee or inexplicably changes his stance. Scum slip up when they're forced to think on their feet.

Besides, you never know. I've seen players get wagoned and lynched out of the blue at deadline.

Maybe I'd have fooled more people into thinking LW was actually in danger had I pushed LW earlier and harder, and I wish someone other than Thor had commented on my vote at the time, but I'm still glad I did it. Red got last words, and I got a reaction from LW.

I will probably re-read day one before I place my vote. Red's flip kinda screwed most of my reads up.

What reads of yours were dependent on Red being scum?

[Mina]

Isn't Percy just the most sensible lynch for Phase 1 of today? Once we know his alignment, then we can have a much more informed look at the people backing the RC wagon and whether they were doing so to save a buddy.

Locke, let's try an intellectual exercise.

Option A

Final Vote Count of D2 P1

Percy - 7 (I Am Innocent, KaleiÐoscøpe, JasonT1981, Benmage, Locke Lamora, Lrdwhyt, Elmo)
Baby Spice - 2 (Percy, Thor665)
Lrdwhyt - 2 (Sotty7, Mina)
Benmage - 1 (Baby Spice)

With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch

Percy is chosen for the execution and fed to a pack of wild cougars roaming in the Zachtown woods. A few hours later, one of you works up the courage to approach his mangled remained. All of a sudden, his cell phone rings. You answer. "This is Fox News programming. Glenn, where the hell have you been? You were supposed to go on the air at seven!" Yes, Glenn Beck has disguised himself as an Australian Old One and infiltrated Zachtown in order to cause its ruin.

Percy

(Mafia Goon)

Lynched Day Two : Phase One

Congratulations! Percy has flipped scum. Don't I have egg on my face, now? Well done, town. You get a gold star.

Now, Locke, who do you think is the third scum?

Option B

Final Vote Count of D2 P1

Percy - 7 (I Am Innocent, KaleiÐoscøpe, JasonT1981, Benmage, Locke Lamora, Lrdwhyt, Elmo)
Baby Spice - 2 (Percy, Thor665)
Lrdwhyt - 2 (Sotty7, Mina)
Benmage - 1 (Baby Spice)

With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch

Percy is chosen for the execution and fed to a pack of wild cougars roaming in the Zachtown woods. Right before the cougars tear apart his flesh, he cries out his dying words. "Mina...f-for me...make Benmage's avatar...Barney/Baby Bop X-rated fanart...AAAAAAAAAAAH DEAR GOD MY RIB CAGE!"

Percy

(Vanilla Townie)

Lynched Day Two : Phase One

Oh NOES! Percy was innocent! You fail so hard, town. Now Benmage is stuck with an embarrassing sig/avatar combination for a month.

Now what do you do, Locke? Who do you think are the final two scum?

...okay, I could have just asked you that point blank instead wasting valuable catching-up time on writing fake mod flavour. But it was funny in my head.

Show me what you're planning to do with a Percy flip that will make me think it's worthwhile to lynch him for information.

Can you please say something really really townish so I can file you off as town and ignore you for the rest of the game? Because logically, you

should

be town for your early DF vote. But you keep on popping up every few days or so with a cryptic one-liner that makes you very difficult to read. I'd appreciate it if you were a little more active and pushed your own opinions more. Take advantage of your "quasi-confirmed" status to take the lead.

Mod Note: Green font color changed to blue.

[Mina]

So, uh, Elmo, other than fluff posts, do you have any

suspects

? Any thoughts on the players off the DF wagon, who you said you'd be willing to vote? What does Red Coyote's flip change for you?

Last week, it also felt as though you were enjoying the me vs. Benmage friction for its entertainment value rather than trying to be constructive. I'd assume that since you're pushing Benmage to accept my avatar bet, that means you think Percy's town, right? Or are you just trying to saddle me with an embarrassing avatar?

(Oh, and for the record, Percy...if you're scum in this game, I am going to be seriously annoyed with you for egging Benmage on to take up that bet. This is the thanks I get for defending you. )

So...wait, IAI's theory is that I was scum because I didn't vote for my scumbuddy and instead lurked (hoping to get BS lynched? Hoping the Percy wagon would dissipate/go through without me?), and then later came in with defense of said scumbuddy, called him town, and voted the alternate big wagon.

If I'm a ballsy enough scum to call my scumbuddy town and vote the "obvious opposing town wagon" then what in my lurking was scummy at all? The fact that IAI is painting me as both lurky scum and ballsy buddy-defending scum suggests that all he's doing is taking whatever I do and deciding it's scummy. Case is terribad and so is the current Percy case. I'm okay with the Lrdwhyt case, but would rather lynch Baby Spice.

I don't think I've agreed with a single read, or even a single argument, all game from I am Innocent. But I'll toss him a bone and say you

could

have decided to lurk, then shifted your vote to the largest wagon. I'd be shocked if any distancing went on in D1 P2, because scum would have been screwed had they lost 2/3 members on the second day.

But that said, I am Innocent's thinking is ridiculously simplistic. I mean...seriously. I think it's almost a general rule that scum rarely say positive things about a buddy unless he's in a super-good position and widely trusted.

Like, there is no way that Baby Spice and Percy are scumbuddies, for example. Not just because Percy's throwing her under a bus--because he's throwing her under a bus at the same time that she's been kissing up to him and calling him obvtown all game.

Thor, by the way, I have a question. What makes you suspect Baby Spice more than Lrdwhyt? Yesterday, you seemed lukewarm to BS, and actually seemed to like the LW case.

Also, you had a townread on Furcolow yesterday. Out of curiosity, where did that come from?

See this is another thing that eats at me. Your case on Red was on gut as well right? I don't think I have ever seen such a wordy gut based player before. Normally the people who post walls (which I can be guilty of sometimes) are more logical players. I dunno, it's strange to me.

Off-topic Mafia theory ramble that everyone can feel free to skip:

I've been accused of being a gut player before, but I'm not sure if that's fair. I just think in generalities rather than specifics, and believe rhetorical skill rarely says much about alignment. So I prefer looking at motivations/behaviour/thought processes to breaking down someone's post line-by-line and finding fault with their logic. Also, I probably look more gut-driven than usual because I've been playing so badly this game. Had I not fallen so far behind, I might have approached the Red wagon differently (paid more attention to the finer details of his posts, probably articulated my suspicions with more than "he just feels off," asked him more hard-hitting questions so as to better read him).

And I usually dismiss gut reads unless I can articulate where they're coming from. I left it at "note to self: read Sotty if RC flips town" because I knew I didn't have anything on you but niggling paranoia at the back of my mind. (All the people suspecting you and treating you like a master scum player didn't help. ) Writing that long explanation of my thought process helped me get my opinions in order, and made me realize that I'd imagined half of what I disliked.

Red then went on to backtrack/lie with his case on me. He misrepped the exchange with IAI as a slap fight which he recanted once I pushed him. He also tried to claim I never explained my town reads when I had.

Does "slap fight" have a negative connotation on this site that I'm missing? I just read it as a colourful synonym for "back-and-forth" or "kerfuffle" or or "clash"--which, um, was pretty much what your [BLANK] with IAI was. It seemed weird to me that you assumed he was mischaracterizing you.

But I missed the town read thing. Okay, following those links, I see where you're coming from on that.

Also, all I meant by the "late to join the wagon" comment was that you weren't the first to voice suspicion of Red or vote him--in all your examples, at least one other person had already attacked Red...although in hindsight, it's a bit unfair, since there can only be one first vote on any wagon.

I've felt a lot better about her posts today (the kind of things she's asking me and noticing about my play look natural, as though she's genuinely trying to figure out my alignment), so I am officially removing the question mark beside Sotty's name in the town column. I'd rank her as more townish than Percy and Elmo right now.

================================
EBWOPreview: And hilariously, I may have given more fodder to Baby Spice's theory that Sotty and I are...um, I dunno. Are we distancing? Is one of us trying to appease the other by voting for her suspect so as to say, "See? See? Don't pressure me because I like your suspect!" And yet...because one of us must be scum, that absolutely makes Lrdwhyt even more likely to be scum because...because...I dunno, everyone knows scum are more likely to vote for their buddies over another viable wagon even when they can't afford to bus?

Okay, I should be happy that you're voting Lrdwhyt, but obvious badly-justified opportunistic wagon hop is obvious.

[Mina]

God, I'm so lazy. Can't I just wire my brain to the computer, so I can download all the textwalls in my mind directly to the thread? I have to mention all the stuff I noticed days ago about Kaleidoscope...and Percy...and Lrdwhyt...but...but...I don't wannnnaaaaa. *stomps foot and throws a tantrum* Procrastination is one of my many fatal flaws in Mafia.

But baby steps. Tonight, I have comments for Thor and Baby Spice. And I'd made a throwaway comment to Thor about disliking Elmo's recent posts...but then I took a closer look at Elmo, and then I really, REALLY disliked them. So now I've turned into a full-blown logical case, complete with quotes and soul-sucking PBPA (ha to all those who say I'm a gut player!).

Actually, you know what? I still like the Lrdwhyt wagon, but in the meantime:

VOTE: Elmo

This vote may change depending on how Elmo answers this case and on what I find when I take a closer look at Lrdwhyt. Since I found Elmo townish early on, I'll reread his D1 content later with an open mind to see if my read still holds. See, part of why I usually find it safer to concentrate on the big picture is that I tend to suffer from confirmation bias when I focus too closely upon the nitty-gritty of one player's posts.
=========================================================

Thor, why did you settle for a compromise vote on Lrdwhyt so early in the day? Now wasn't the time to decide to switch to whoever had the biggest wagon. If you really think you've found scum, shouldn't you have been trying to sell the I am Innocent or Baby Spice lynches to us, instead of just going with the flow?

Also, what was your opinion of I am Innocent's meltdown and self-vote early on Day One? Did it strengthen or weaken your scumread of him?

For the record, I think I am Innocent has been suffering from a horrible case of confirmation bias today, but his trying to lock you into give town reads out of his conviction that you're struggling for suspects because he's nailed the scumteam has pretty much clinched that he's town for me. It's just an utterly townish mindset, particularly from an inexperienced player.

Mina and KaleiÐoscøpe are in a middle cloud wherein Mina is being felt more town probably because I find her playstyle amusing

Nobody takes me seriously.

Elmo, furcolow, and jasonT are the obvious towns.

Can you explain your read on Elmo for me? Truth be told, his play today has completely nullified my earlier townread. First he was unhelpful and flippant and brushed off of my questions early on (he reminded me a bit of Mikujin popping up out of nowhere in

ACoK

, after having ignored pages of discussion, just to make a snide comment about douchebags), and since then he hasn't taken a single firm stance. But what I find really off is that he hasn't even reacted to the fact that his one major scum read (Red Coyote) was wrong.

Actually, let's break down Elmo's D2 posts:

-One-liner ignoring pages of discussion to egg on Benmage to take my avatar bet.

-When I ask him this:

So, uh, Elmo, other than fluff posts, do you have any suspects? Any thoughts on the players off the DF wagon, who you said you'd be willing to vote? What does Red Coyote's flip change for you?

Last week, it also felt as though you were enjoying the me vs. Benmage friction for its entertainment value rather than trying to be constructive. I'd assume that since you're pushing Benmage to accept my avatar bet, that means you think Percy's town, right? Or are you just trying to saddle me with an embarrassing avatar?

He ignores

every single question

, and flippantly admits to enjoying the drama between me and Benmage. Nothing about his suspects, about the players off the DF wagon, about his opinions on RC's flip, about Benmage or Percy or who he thinks will win the avatar bet. Nada. Just a .

-Mentions the obvious reason for why havingfitz was NK'd (he replaced someone on the DF wagon) rather dismissively (ignoring the juicier question of why havingfitz was killed over Locke/IaI/jason/Benmage--I have suspicions on this, but I'll save them for later), asks Percy a few decent questions (although a bit redundant, since Percy had already explained his DF suspicions several times), and makes a reasonable point for why Percy would be less likely to vote RC as town (this I like, but it's not brilliant analysis and would be easy to fake as scum, particularly since he's not defending Percy with much passion--he agrees with Thor, but then he qualifies his town read with a seed of doubt). He is horrendously wishy-washy on Lrdwhyt:

I'm also kinda interested in lrdwhyt.. I do agree with Mina a bit, some of his posts seem too close to IIoA for comfort. Definitely, I would like to see more stated reasoning rather than just conclusions. I'm not sure whether to push this by itself, or file it under "wait and see".

I don't think I ever even

used

the words "IIoA." My case had to do with Lrdwhyt's weird backtrack on jason and I am Innocent, his lack of scumhunting, his unexplained reads, and his defence. Which posts of Lrdwhyt do you think were IIoA? I want actual quotes. And how did you leap from "IIoA" to "stated reasoning rather than just conclusions"? Information Instead of Analysis means that on the contrary, he

isn't

giving conclusions, just talking about neutral facts. Those are two completely different, unrelated charges.

And what the hell are you talking about in the last line? Push

what

by itself? Why the hell wouldn't you try to pressure Lrdwhyt if you suspect him? This is a

horrible

comment for a townie to make. Get off your ass and "push" shit, instead of "waiting and seeing."

Oh, and another question. What did you think of imkingdavid's play?

-One-liner asking Sotty how she's distinguishing between BS being scum and a VI. Fair enough, although still easy to fake and diminishes Sotty's pressure on Baby Spice. Elmo, I'm just curious. Why did you choose to ask Sotty this question?

-But then, defends BS by saying that

Benmage

thinks BS would know not to attack him were she scum...but then quickly backpedals by saying this is just what Benmage thinks, and she

may

have done other scummy things, although he's not sure what they are:

Now, there may be other things that are "really" scummy, but I haven't seen them, albeit I haven't reread BS yet.

(I have my own view, but it's uninteresting.)

The bolded line in particular is horrendous. Seriously, how did no one notice this? Not "I'm going to stay silent so as not to influence people's reactions." Because his opinions are "uninteresting." Why did you even post such useless fluff? Give us your uninteresting opinions on Baby Spice,

now

.

Also clarifies in his next post that it's not his opinion and he doesn't "wholly agree" with Benmage's logic, but that he doesn't like the reasons people are using to attack Baby Spice.

-And his last post starts off with okay points in response to Thor on how his town read on Percy would depend on how Percy explains his DF stance, and how he can see more of a scum motivation for Percy's behaviour than BS's (which is reasonable, albeit it could be worded more precisely, but still really obvious and a bit on the IIoA side). I thought Percy had

already

explained his DF stance, but whatever, maybe Elmo missed it or wasn't satisfied with the explanation.

And then we get this:

I agree with this, but equally I'm (personally) not super happy about defending him from this specifically since (to me) there remains a reasonable chance he's scum. Along those lines, I should probably say that I don't have any confidence in BS being town, and I plan to reread her and try to get a better handle on her play within the next couple of days.

Another thing that's bothering me is that open, all-vanilla setups are, by a long way, the best kind to bus in. I don't want to start the conspiracy theories too early, but I would actually like to hear from everyone what they think about the possibility of Dry being bussed by at least one buddy.

So...um, he agrees with Thor's read on Percy...but is unwilling to defend him, even though he's already weakly defended Percy several times in his earlier posts...because there's a

reasonable chance

he's scum.

And he doesn't have

any confidence

in BS being town...even though, if you've been following this case, he defended her before from Sotty's attack just a few posts by saying he thought some of the arguments against her were spurious. He needs to reread her. Um...

what

?

Oh, and...maybe DF was bussed. Maybe. Just maybe, one of the confirmed players might be scum. He doesn't know. He doesn't want to start conspiracy theories, of course, not too early

when there are viable mislynches on the table

...but he'd be happy if

you

all shared your conspiracy theories, so he can decide if they're worth bandwagoning.

Oh, and he hasn't followed up on the Lrdwhyt suspicions he mentioned above--even though Lrdwhyt is the only player he seems to be suspicious of so far.

So the moral of the story is that you think the top suspects in the game might be town, so you're defending them, or they might not be town, so you won't defend them? Why did you even waste your time writing this post? It's all a load of waffle about theory padded to look like content. This is worse IIoA than anything Lrdwhyt is guilty of. Instead of coasting, why didn't you just get off your ass, reread Baby Spice, and then come back to us when you had something constructive to add? Or just reread Percy's more recent posts explaining his change of heart on Dry-Fit, and provided your own analysis on whether you thought his excuses were plausible?

Wow. I should reread his Day One, because I remember feeling that he was townish at certain points, but his Day Two posts are scumtastic, particularly coming from a strong experienced player. Seriously, I usually find long cases painting every single post someone's written in the game as scummy contrived...but every post Elmo's written today HAS been scummy. I tried to leave in what little he's said that could vaguely pass as town, just to be balanced. He has zero conviction or passion, has put no pressure on anyone (he still hasn't voted), and his picture could appear in the dictionary beside the word "wishy-washy." Seriously. I'm an indecisive, waffling player. I know what genuine indecision looks like. This is not it.

Elmo, I would like a point-by-point defence to this post, answers to all my questions, and a concrete list of suspects. How about you rank all the players in the game according to your suspect levels?

===============================================================

Sotty, I was tempted to join the Baby Spice wagon (although eek, BS and LW probably aren't buddies now--which raises the stakes of my decision) after that terrible vote, but hang on. That explanation from Baby Spice is very, um, unique, but her reasoning is much more of the town variety of special snowflake than the scum variety. Right now, I'd be much happier with a Lrdwhyt lynch than a BS one.

I thought if I'm wrong on benmage, and I'll happily admit I could be unlikely as it is, then perhaps one of Sotty or Mina was voting a scum buddy. If that was the case then they might panic and jump on me if I added a vote
To follow on. If Sotty thought that Lrd was scum, she'd stay there and suspect me of bussing. If Sotty was scum driving a mis-lynch she'd stay there and ride it down, especially with the vote count being off. Accidental hammer and all being easy to excuse in that case and it would screw up wagon analysis.

So let me ask you something. Do you personally still think Lrdwhyt is scum, for any reason other than me and Sotty voting for him? Or are you saying the whole thing was just a test of our alignment? Why is your vote still on Lrdwhyt?

If both Sotty and I had stayed on Lrdwhyt, what useful information would that have given you? Either we're town voting a player we think is scum or we're scum voting a townie.

And what made you think Lrdwhyt was being bussed, as opposed to just being the target of an easy mislynch?

(And, you know, for the record, that vote would have been a

much

better test had you given reasoning for your vote that didn't sound so unlikely that anyone would have a legitimate reason for reevaluating their reads and suspecting you more than LW.)

Also, what Sotty said about interacting with players I'm uncertain of and ask them questions so as to get a better read on them. I definitely feel like my exchange with Sotty was productive.

[Mina]

Several nights' straight of sleep deprivation have caught up with me, and to be honest, I'm going through another one of my jaded indecisive WIFOM paralysis phases. There's lots I should comment on, but don't expect any brilliant analysis from me tonight.

I was about to share what I thought of Elmo's defence, but I've decided to keep my cards close to my chest for a moment. Percy,

thanks for giving me an excuse not to write another wall post on Elmo tonight

I want an answer to something.

Mina's vote on Elmo was quite surprising, but I nodded along to the case. Mina called him on the right things, imo, but the clarifications seem consistent and I found myself still with a townread of Elmo by the end of his defence. I'm keen to hear more from Mina, but I don't suspect Elmo at this time.

I'm going to wait for Mina and put together my own version of the Lrdwhyt case before my next post and see how it compares to my Baby Spice case.

So...um, just what are you waiting for, anyway?

I take it from the context that you're waiting for me to respond to Elmo. Apparently, you've found him town all game, and continued in your town read afterward. So are you saying that you'd consider voting him if I came out with a kickass rebuttal to his defence?

Considering Baby Spice and Lrdwhyt have been your top two suspects for most of the game, whereas you read Elmo as town both before and after my case, why should whatever I said about Elmo remotely influence your vote? Do you have faith that my scumhunting skills are so much better than your own? Do you really think that I'm going to tear the wool from your eyes and help you see the light? Do you think there are flaws in Elmo's defence? What are you expecting me to say that will change your mind to the point that you'd be willing to vote Elmo over either Lrdwhyt or Baby Spice?

(EBWOPreview: WHAT THE FUCK, BENMAGE!!!! *headdesk* AAAAH! STOP BEING AN ANTITOWN IDIOT JUST SO YOU CAN MAKE A POINT! You're lucky you're obvtown, or you'd be speedlynched for that.)

=================================================================
Gah, I was trying to be discreet and wait for if the kills would follow a pattern, but my comment about the nightkills inadvertently opened a can of worms. Thanks, Benmage. Now all analysis of future nightkills has been rendered WIFOM. Yes, what stuck out to me was that havingfitz was the

only

member of the "confirmed" players (him, Locke, jason, IAI) who wasn't voting for Percy (and didn't seem particularly interested in the case on him). If I were Percy, I might not have risked killing Benmage on N1 (although...uh, Benmage, you may just be overestimating how much people listen to dead townies if you think that would be treated as proof of Percy's guilt), but I'd have maybe gone for someone like Locke or jason, so as to reduce the pool of potential Percy voters from five to four. But unfortunately, havingfitz might have still been chosen by Percy for other reasons (being the strongest player in the pool (yes, I said that just to annoy Benmage ), not being lynchable, attacking Percy's buddy, framing someone like Sotty and not leading back to the killer).

I'll have more for Benmage and Percy

assuming I don't fall asleep yet again before posting them.

[Mina]

I was about to do another one of my last minute vote swings again (I'm happy with how my Lrdwhyt and Elmo votes turned out), but since someone might hammer any minute.

VOTE: Lrdwhyt

I much prefer this. Baby Spice is hard to read, but 80% of the case on her that her arguments for her suspects are stupid. Um...

duh

. At least she seems to have her own theories about the game. Has no one noticed

Furcolow's

cognitive dissonance today (which looks much more calculated and less emotional than usual for him as town)? On a gut level, I don't think she's scum. Benmage, don't be an idiot, unvote, and help lynch someone you think has a chance of being guilty. This is the second time in a row you actually HARM your suspect's chance of getting lynched simply by throwing a tantrum. Not one person's read of Percy will change if Baby Spice flips town.

Seriously, guys. Look at how this wagon developed. Half the players on it don't even seem to suspect her. There is scum on it.

[Mina]

Seriously. Wasn't even Benmage's

fake

deadline not until next Monday? Why do some people get stupid "KILL KILL KILL LYNCH LYNCH LYNCH" bloodlust every time someone gets within three votes of a lynch? Like, WTF was up with IAI threatening to put BS at L-1? And why did Furcolow, only a couple of posts after saying he preferred the Lrdwhyt wagon, change his vote to Baby Spice? I personally would like to take more time to analyze, and I hate that this is making me panic and try to rush out my thoughts when I don't feel ready.

Benmage, wouldn't it be even more informative if you waited for Percy to provide the Lrdwhyt case he promised? Then you could evaluate if he had a strategic reason for preferring one wagon to the other. If you just speedlynch Baby Spice, then he can go, "Oops. BS was lynched. Too bad, because the case on LW was sooooo good."

EBWOPreview: Haha, crossposted by Percy. That makes the above paragraph ironic.

[Mina]

My God. I want to strangle a few people right now.

Not one person's read of Percy will change if Baby Spice flips town.

Seriously, guys. Look at how this wagon developed. Half the players on it don't even seem to suspect her. There is scum on it.

-I disagree.

Okay, Benmage. Name one player who currently trusts Percy and who you believe will suddenly stop if Baby Spice flips town. Explain why this will happen. I'll give you a hint: I won't be one of them.

- AtE!?!?! What….Whose on the wagon that doesn’t suspect BS other than myself, and a willingness to join from IAI, who?

What are you talking about, this isn't a "scum-led" lynch? You're the one who thinks Percy is obvobvobvobvobvscum (even though you won't bet your avatar on it), and that anyone who quibbles with a single point against him is a gullible VI. And I think you were suspicious of Thor as well, although you seem to have dropped that in favour of calling him stupid. Both of them have been pushing Baby Spice all day.

And I take it you haven't noticed this from Furcolow:

I am happy with both of the top wagons, though I would rather LW be the top wagon as opposed to BS.

unvote
VOTE: baby spice

how can you move baby spice to L-1 when I did

You think this is the thought process of a townie? Hell, right now, I'd much rather use our two lynches on Furcolow and Lrdwhyt than Baby Spice and Lrdwhyt based on those posts alone.

Seriously. Right now, there are two competing wagons: Baby Spice and Lrdwhyt. You actually made a great attack on Lrdwhyt on Sunday that reminded me that you can play well when you don't let your ego get in the way.

And yet players who DON'T SUSPECT BABY SPICE are the fucking swing votes away from Lrdwhyt, onto Baby Spice, BECAUSE you're trying to prove a point by DELIBERATELY FORCING THE TOWN TO MISLYNCH. You think there's a good chance that Lrdwhyt might flip scum. You're

confident

that Baby Spice will flip town. But you are playing against your win condition.

But also, don't you

dare

accuse me of appealing to emotion.

Who's the one who jumped off the viable counterwagon on his top suspect to the wagon on a strong town read and voted "no-lynch" just for theatrical effect, instead of explaining why he was so confident that Red was town? Who's the one who repeatedly calls people stupid and inexperienced if they disagree with them, and appeals to his authority as an experienced player?

You want to know what the irony is?

I was actually totally open to Percy being scum (although I think his unvote of Baby Spice looks townish). Seriously, on Day One, I got dead-townie-walking vibes from him, but early today, he started looking more like a player of null alignment who's just irritated he's being attacked for the wrong reasons. After glancing at

ACoK

, I remembered that he can look very townish as scum. And I didn't like how little pressure he put on me when he appeared to be unsure of my alignment--instead, I felt as though he was buddying up to me, perhaps because he didn't want to antagonize one of his defenders.

I've even had a list of questions I've meant to call Percy on days ago, saved in a draft. Some of the stuff I wanted to call him on (his being so confident in his Baby Spice scum read when on Day One he seemed to only vote her by process of elimination, his completely dropping Furcolow) overlaps with what you've noticed.

But first, I have to untangle my own thoughts on Percy from the bad arguments and blind sheeping that I associate with the case on him. Because if I put even the slightest bit of pressure on him, I'm supporting something I disagree with. Regardless of whether or not he's scum, I agree with Thor that the reasons people have used to wagon him this game are completely unconvincing.

Congratulations. Your approach to the Percy wagon has been so odious, so off-putting, so poorly reasoned that not only are you failing to convince anyone, but you're making me emotionally invested in Percy being town. If Percy ends up scum, there will be no justice in the universe. Because it means you were right about something, even if it was by pure dumb luck.

Please stop quoting every sentence of Percy's posts and trying to spin it in the scummiest possible light (for example, his unvote of Baby Spice, which actually makes more sense from town falling behind). It's only counter-productive. If Percy is scum, you shouldn't need to misrepresent and twist the facts. The evidence should speak for itself.

To be honest, I'm starting to think that you're attacking him more because you're afraid to let your case from early D1 go. Why don't you and I Am Innocent both try a thought experiment? Maybe close your eyes, pretend for a minute you've just received a PM from Zachrulez saying that Percy is an innocent child. Now reread Percy's ISO, knowing that he's confirmed town. See if you still suspect him, or if evidence for his innocence pops up. Even if you don't change your opinion, at least you'll know you're being objective.

Oh, and it's ironic that you think Percy is king of the VIs. You should look at the company you're keeping on the Percy wagon, and the reasons they've used to justify their votes. The approach you're using--bullying people, calling them stupid if they disagree with you, claiming to be the best and most experienced scumhunter to appeal to your authority instead of relying on your arguments, pulling antitown stunts like voting no-lynch or for a town read--only works on scum, the easily led, and new players who believe in your hype and don't have self-confidence. You're turning off the more experienced players.

==========================================================

I Am Innocent, it is taking me a lot of willpower not to be very mean right now. You are very lucky that I'm not Benmage.

Why you are voting for Baby Spice and not Lrdwhyt? Is it just because Benmage is voting for Baby Spice?

[Mina]

@Sotty: My reason was that Baby Spice put the third vote on LrdWhyt I

suppose

I could concoct a conspiracy theory in which she was bussing LrdWhyt and preemptively setting one of us up as his buddy, but it just looked really weird and convoluted for a scum gambit. I wouldn't die of shock if she flipped guilty, and I kind of see Locke's point that setting contingencies based on the lynch is scummy (it's so much fun as scum to link your partner to every group suspect in existence). But meh. I guess I'm not really feeling it. She doesn't seem to be opportunistically tailoring her opinions to suit the masses.

Why am I panicking?

1) Force of habit. I always second-guess myself at crunch time.
2) People should not be using lack of time and desire to get making compromise votes on Baby Spice instead of pushing a player they suspect more when we have time to reach a consensus. I mean...seriously, you have no problem whatsoever with Benmage's, IAI, and Furcolow's votes?
3) Furc's recent posts have looked so opportunistic and conscious of popular opinion that I'd rather that Furcolow and Lrdwhyt were the lynches. So I'd prefer we lynch LW right now, and then we move onto the next phase, in which I push Furc over Baby Spice.

Sotty, question. Why do you find Baby Spice's cognitive dissonance scummy and not Furcolow's? Also, do you think that Furcolow's play is similar to his town or scum meta?

4) I'd rather everyone took a stand before the lynch.

Benmage. I am Innocent. You're only voting Baby Spice to prove that Percy is pushing a mislynch, right? Why don't you see my point that you'll incriminate Percy

even more

if you force him to take a stand on Baby Spice vs. Lrdwhyt? So don't rush the day.

Your turn. What's the rush for someone to hammer right away, Sotty? Why don't you want more discussion?

[Mina]

EBWOPreview: Interesting. Damn, I wish I hadn't put off asking Lrdwhyt to substantiate his one-liner reads in his wishy-washy catch-up posts.

=================================

Poor Percy can't catch a break. If Baby Spice flips town, that will make him look like scum. If Baby Spice flips scum, that will make him look like scum. That said, considering he's such a polarizing force, and several people are waiting on him for the lynch, it'd be nice if he got in here and answered all the outstanding questions to him.

Lots I need to catch up with. Sotty first.

WARNING: INCOMING WALL POST.

I'll be completely honest; being linked to a leading wagon

before

a flip makes me feel self-conscious of my reads, particularly since I've steadfastly defended scum more than a few times. Even as I'm writing this, I'll admit there's a voice in my head going, "Oh, shit, if she flips scum, you'll look even

more

like her buddy." Can't people...um, just magically see into my pure innocent heart and let me post whatever wishy-washy contradictory thoughts come into my mind without lynching me for it?

Mina, after reading post 812 I was ready to fall in mafia love with you. But you ruin a good thing with post 813. Broke my heart...

@Sotty: My reason was that Baby Spice put the third vote on LrdWhyt I

suppose

I could concoct a conspiracy theory in which she was bussing LrdWhyt and preemptively setting one of us up as his buddy, but it just looked really weird and convoluted for a scum gambit. I wouldn't die of shock if she flipped guilty, and I kind of see Locke's point that setting contingencies based on the lynch is scummy (it's so much fun as scum to link your partner to every group suspect in existence). But meh. I guess I'm not really feeling it. She doesn't seem to be opportunistically tailoring her opinions to suit the masses.

Okay, fair enough if you're “not feeling” Baby as scum but reading this little block of text I see no reason for you to be fighting the Baby wagon like you are. You are actively derailing a wagon on a player who you admittedly have at least a slight scum read on. Why exactly?

I was really surprised that you accused me of fighting so hard to derail Baby Spice's lynch throughout this post, since I don't remember defending her so much as whining that I'm not ready for Phase One to end and yelling at the people who are playing stupid games with their votes...but looking back, I do use lots of exclamation marks and capital letters.

Hmm. Maybe some of my vehemence is a visceral backlash to the formation of the wagon and its diversion from Lrdwhyt.

I got all excited on Sunday when I saw Benmage's attack on Lrdwhyt. "Awesome," I thought. "Now I remember how Benmage made me fall in love with him in

ACoK

even after driving me crazy over the first couple of days. My Elmo vote caught a lamb to the slaughter." I was also starting to feel better about Baby Spice, because she didn't seem clever enough to fake a "trap" as scum.

I was getting ready to pressure Lrdwhyt a bit, since I'd never really addressed his most recent posts or explained what bugged me about his wishy-washy reads. Also, this is another reason I forgot to mention in 813, but I was in the middle of writing a great, dramatically-charged attack on Furcolow. I mean...he sheeped my Elmo vote,

and then voted Lrdwhyt

for sheeping it as well. I had plans, dammit,

plans

! And then out of nowhere, several people went, "I think Baby Spice is town, but I'm voting for her anyway." "Yeah, I agree. *votes*" "I'm putting Baby Spice at L-1 just because it what's the cool kids are doing!" "Hey, everyone, day's over, hammer THIS SECOND!"

To be honest, when everyone gangs up on an easy target without little thought, my white knight instincts kick in. So maybe I overreacted a bit.

=========================================================

I understand the Benmage thing.
I understand the furc thing.
I understand the IAI thing.

But in a mountainous game like this, where we get two lynches a day, you shouldn't be fighting a lynch as hard as you are unless you are convinced that player is town. Clearly you aren't convinced about Baby.

Okay, most of your points in this post are fair, but I

really

hated this. The implication that it's townish to just go with the flow and not voice your own opinions bothers me.

Apparently, instead of voting for Lrdwhyt, who I suspect more than Baby Spice, the correct town play is to say, "Hey, Baby Spice has a non-zero chance of flipping scum, so hammer away!" Do you just find this scummy because you think Baby Spice is scum (although to be honest, I think if you're looking for BS's partner, it's more likely to be someone like Furcolow, who barely mentions her but then puts her to L-1

after

someone else promises to do it)? Or would you find it scummy for anyone who isn't convinced that X is town to ask, "Hey, why are you voting for X, instead of Y who both you and I suspect more?

Why don't you apply this to any player who doesn't vote for a leading bandwagon they don't have a town read on? Hey, Locke suspects Baby Spice, but he's voting Lrdwhyt! Why isn't he sitting back and letting Baby Spice be lynched?

What you're saying is town is MORE LIKELY than scum to make a lazy bandwagon vote--

just

because the set-up is more forgiving than usual on town. That's just giving people a cover to make compromise votes on players they don't suspect.

Yes, I'll agree that town can afford to play more loosely than in a one-lynch-per-day game. But that doesn't make it a scum mindset to be cautious. Somehow, it seems too easy for the scum to all be the weak players (so I have the sneaking suspicion that two out of three of BS, LW, and Furc aren't guilty).

I prefer playing on my own terms. I will vote for Baby Spice when I'm confident that she's more likely to be scum than another potential lynch, or when the alternative is a lynch I disagree with (like I did on Day One). But I didn't feel ready for Phase One to end at the point where people were calling for a hammer.

=================================================================

It's like you want it all ways possible.

Baby looks scummy
People on her wagon are scummy
People off her wagon are scummy.

Seriously? Pick a side. Unless you have a legit case as to why we

shouldn't

lynch Baby today then you shouldn't be trying to derail this as hard as you are.

If I wasn't leaning town on you from before, I'd OMGUS you and accuse you of misrepping me. Please show just where:

1) I'm trying to derail this very hard. (Meh...I

did

ask Benmage to unvote.)
2) I said that people off her wagon are scummy because they're off their wagon.

I think saying that I'm trying to have it all ways just because I'm ambivalent on Baby Spice is really unfair.

Maybe for self-preservation's sake, I should pretend to be either super-suspicious of Baby Spice or utterly convinced she's town. But I'm sorry. I'm just kind of lukewarm on her. You say that your experience has taught you how to sense when things feel off. Well, my experience has taught me that I should not trust my own ability to read players like Baby Spice, because I consistently misread them (either as town when they're scum or scum when they're town). Occasionally she sounds sincere, but in all honesty, her posts just make my head hurt. Every time I think I've found a nugget of towniness there, she says something that makes me go, "But...but...didn't you just say that you thought...how does that make any...." There are players I have something concrete against, so the "side" I'm picking is to vote for them over her.

===============================================================

<snip>
2] I don't have any issue with furc's vote. It's how he is.

Benmage and IAI's votes do look suspect on face value. Both are voting for someone they believe is town out of spite. However, I still have a strong town read on IAI because I have seen scumIAI and this is totally different. He does earn a couple of scum points for the reasoning to his vote but not enough for me to abandon this read.

Benmage is town right now mostly because of Dry-Fit. How likely do you think that was a bus?

I resevere the right to change my mind, but this is where my head is at right now. Their votes a terribad, but Baby is probscum. I'll take it anyway I can get it.

My thoughts on Furcolow are below.

As for the other two...maybe I wasn't clear enough. Benmage and I Am Innocent are two of my strongest town reads. I'm more sure of them than I am of jason, actually.

That doesn't change the fact that their votes raise my blood pressure, and make me want to break things, because they--well, mostly just Benmage, after IAI's clarification--are voting for someone they think is

more likely to be a mislynch.

Just because he's so tunnel-visioned that he's deliberately going out of their way to screw the town over. It's terrible, terrible strategy. They should be trying to lynch Percy's buddy, not his top suspect. To make matters worse, Benmage has

he has a townread

on Baby Spice, for reasons outside of Percy's attack.

3] I thought you had experience playing with furc before? I wouldn't exactly be against a policy lynch of furc, but lets not pretend that it is scum hunting.

I need to tread carefully here. My only experience with Furcolow is in an ongoing game.

I could have sworn someone mentioned that scum-Furcolow is more low-key, and kisses up to people unless they attack him (in which case, he OMGUSes). I can't remember if it was in this thread or [REDACTED]. I've been meaning to read

The Brave and the Beautiful

to get scum meta on Furcolow. But I was hoping someone here could enlighten me.

But what bugs me about him is that he's very

calm

today. (Yes, I've called Furcolow calm.) On Day One, he looked more like Spastic Hyperactive Furcolow. (And maybe I should reread, because people were accusing Furcolow of being Dry-Fit's buddy

before

a flip.) But now, he isn't blowing up at random people, getting tunnel-visioned, and concocting ridiculous conspiracy theories. He isn't aggressively pursuing anyone. He just writes long reasonable (for Furcolow) posts kissing up to people, and goes with the flow. He's acting

very

conscious of how his posts appear.

See, it's not that his opinions are contradictory, but that these contradictions don't look emotion-driven. It's just, "Okay, now I've changed my mind." Like, he voted for me when I called him scum. But then out of the blue, he turns around and says, "Yeah, I liked Mina's Elmo case at first, but it made Mina 'incorrectly' suspect me so I'm backing off." You know what I think he'd be doing if he were town? Spamming the thread with "LYNCH MINA LYNCH MINA YOU'RE A LYING LIAR WHO LIES AND CALLED ME SCUM BECAUSE I VOTED FOR ELMO EVEN THOUGH YOU VOTED FOR ELMO WHICH WAS ALL A PLAN BECAUSE YOU AND ELMO ARE SCUMBUDDIES LOOK YOUR POSTS BOTH CONTAIN THE LETTER Q IN THEM SO YOU MUST BE PARTNERS I REFUSE TO LISTEN TO YOUR DEFENCE LYNCH MINA LYNCH MINA LYNCH MINA." For someone who's so hotheaded, he just seems very laid-back and calculated.

==============================================================

Sotty, question. Why do you find Baby Spice's cognitive dissonance scummy and not Furcolow's? Also, do you think that Furcolow's play is similar to his town or scum meta?

(1) First off I never classed anything Babyspice did as

“cognitive dissonance”

. (2) I don't like the fact you have, in essence, paired my case against Baby up with furc now. Clearly Baby and furc are not guilty of the same exact things, otherwise I would be pushing on furc too.

1) I remember someone using the words "cognitive dissonance" in this thread to refer to Baby Spice. Sorry, I thought it was you.

2) Um...that's

exactly

my point.

Saying Baby and Furc are not guilty of the same things because

you aren't attacking both of them

is circular reasoning. I asked you because I wanted to know what were your reasons for thinking Baby Spice's poor logic and contradictions are scummier and less out of character than Furcolow's poor logic and contradictions. I want to know

why

you aren't pushing on Furcolow as well? Why

don't

you think they're guilty of the exact same things? This is both for my own enlightenment (is there something about both of them I'm missing?) and to get a better read on you.

<snip> All furc has done is be himself. In that he changes his mind in a blink of an eye. Make a case on him and maybe I'll listen. Right now I don't have an issue with him. Would I want him in LYLO... Probably not. Although I do hear he has a good lylo record (unless I remembering someone else)

Will do later. I've been meaning to at least point out his shifts in opinion and then try to squeeze an explanation out of him.

Your turn. What's the rush for someone to hammer right away, Sotty? Why don't you want more discussion?

I have already said why.

But I have no issue waiting for everyone to weigh in. After that, I will be calling for the lynch again.

All you say there is that the downside to hammering isn't as high as usual. Well...what's the

upside

? Why did you think hammering quickly was better than waiting? You were putting pressure on people to hammer? What was the trade-off of instant hammer vs. more discussion when you called for it?

But glad you're in agreement about waiting for more people to weigh in.

[Mina]

EBWOPreview: Ironically, I was responding to something Benmage wrote a few days ago, and Benmage's crosspost has completely soured me on this. I just want to say fuck off, scratch off Percy from my to-do list, and make your own case on him. Not everyone is obsessed with Percy and makes him their number one priority. I'm sorry if Sotty attacked me for reasons that had nothing to do with Percy, so I felt the need to devote lots more words on a subject that wasn't Percy so as to explain myself. Next time, when I'm defending myself, I'll follow every sentence with "PERCY IS SCUM," just to keep it relevant.

Oh, and another thing. Earlier, you dismissed my Elmo case as weak. Explain now why you think so. I want explanations. Now. Ten to one you didn't actually read it, just skimmed through it and saw it was on someone other than Percy.

==============================================================

Mina, why don't you see if you can bullet my case on Percy and maybe you'll see the magnitude of his scumminess.

Also stop talking about all the things you'd like to do. Woes you. Just go ahead. Read Percy in iso. Ask him your questions. Read me in iso. Read throuh the belittling, look at the arguments.

My thoughts are that the original case on Percy was never compelling, and that his reactions to his own and Red's lynch wagons looked townish. But today, Percy has done some stuff that bugs me (some of which you've mentioned), and I've become increasingly uncomfortable with how he hasn't really engaged with anyone or tried to put pressure on people. And I see your point that his suspects today are the easy targets (to be fair, so are most people's in this game).

However, the evidence against him is nowhere near as strong as you're making it out to be. Your reasons for suspecting him are better than jason's and I Am Innocent's, but still not rock-solid. It is certainly not so strong that you should deliberately try to lynch one of your town reads just because you think that will make Percy look slightly more guilty. Why aren't you looking for his buddy, instead?

That said, maybe I should admit that although your antics have made me a bit more reluctant to pressure him, the real reason I haven't posted my questions yet is that I'm a horrible easily-distracted procrastinator who takes forever to write.

You know, I'm almost wondering if I should take a running poll on what I should do next when I get off my ass:

-Percy "case" in which I close my eyes, try very hard to ignore everything that anyone else has said about him, and pretend I'm in an alternate-universe in which I'm trying to bring attention to a player everyone is dismissing as obvtown (even though it will give the rabid anti-Percyites more fodder)
-Response to Elmo post (although I was waiting for Percy's reaction, first)
-Furcolow case
-Case against Lrdwhyt's hollow shell, in which I dissect his big posts of reads that say nothing, even though he won't be around to explain them anymore
-Reread of Baby Spice in which I travel through the Byzantine maze of her partnership theories and see if they make more sense for town or scum (although given how inevitable her lynch looks, it would serve no purpose other than for me to say I was right about something)
-Beating Kaleidoscope over the head until he answers once and for all why he suspects Percy
-Questions to jason on his opinions re: Red/Percy/Baby Spice

Oh and Mina, you didn't accept my counter proposal for the avatar.....soooo.

Yeah. Your counterproposal in which I either vote for a town player and play against my win condition just so I can see you with a stupid avatar, or in which I get punished for helping lynch scum.

Um...

no

. If I'm confident enough in a player's innocence that I'm willing to bet my avatar on it, then I'm not going to vote for him...and vice versa.

[Mina]

Explain now why you think so. I want explanations. Now.

Oops. Redundant statement is redundant.

Omigod. Rereading #838 freaks me out. It's just so...

reasonable

. And measured. My God. Is that...fair? Saying Furcolow's playing too well to be town?

Kaleidoscope: What is this kid, the king of one liners? Go read his iso. Seriously, go. Read it now. It is a fucking JOKE.
LrdWhyt: although kingdavid had me all over the radar, I am fairly sure this guy is lurking. He checks in once every 4-5 days, and we haven't heard from him in about 3. He has one good post, but it occurred a week ago.
BabySpice: I'm not even going to talk about this one

One of these things is not like the other...

Please elaborate. Why do you suspect Baby Spice? Also, why did you put her at L-1 before after saying you preferred the Lrdwhyt wagon?

Lastly, why didn't you mention Lrdwhyt's Elmo vote among your reasons to suspect him?

(I'm happy with how my Lrdwhyt and Elmo votes turned out)

Back to lurking!

HEY! I was referring more to Furcolow's and Lrdwhyt's reactions to the vote. I still haven't said what I thought of your defence.

The pressure's still on you, slacker!

[Mina]

This game.... I can't decide if this is fun anymore or not. Right now my vote is for no. I'm banging my head against a wall.

Was it something I did?

Busy doing something else right now, so I won't answer all the questions directed at me yet. (My God. Should I...should I really respond to Sotty's last wall post with yet another wall post? Or respond to Percy's last post--because, you know, I'm sure a back-and-forth with Percy would be

much

more succinct than one with Sotty. Or would that be unnecessary cruelty to the other players?)

But @Benmage: No, sorry. I would rather see Baby Spice lynched today than Percy. Matter of fact, I'm starting to lean town on him again, although I'd still like to poke at him a bit.

I actually agree with Locke's assessment here:

I'm wavering on Percy, basically because I don't think he's trying to manipulate us enough. WIFOM, I know, but in my experience good scum still play like they have an agenda, and I don't see that from Percy's play.

@MINA When you say "See, it's not that his opinions are contradictory, but that these contradictions don't look emotion-driven." You say it's not that contradictory then it is. How do these two sentences even go together?

No. Your opinions are very, VERY contradictory. I'm still waiting for how you went from "Baaah, your case on Elmo is AWESOME," to "OMG, Lrdwhyt is scummy" to "Percy and Mina are so protown" to "vote: Mina" to "I suspect Lrdwhyt more than Baby Spice" to "vote: Baby Spice," to "Oh, it's a shame that Mina incorrectly suspects me, and Elmo is now town."

My point is that I don't think a shift in opinions

alone

is a scum tell from you. It's that your shifts in opinions don't seem to be driven by the vicissitudes of your emotional Piscean mind (as a side note, please don't get me started on a rant about astrology). A few of your posts felt calculated, as though they were written with an eye on the crowd. It unnerves me, because I got the impression that your play is ordinarily a lot more erratic and impulsive.

I need to read

Brave and the Beautiful

before I make up my mind on you, though.

========================================================
It doesn't seem like anyone is interested in a non-BS lynch, but I still prefer LW's lynch to BS's. I read Sotty's and Percy's arguments on Baby Spice, and I actually found myself nodding along and agreeing with them...but then Baby Spice posted, and it all seemed to make sense in her own little universe. She reminds me a lot of this player from another site who also had these weird theories and gaps in logic as town that drew her a lot of suspicion. Baby is still in the "eh, I don't suppose I'd miss her

too

much, but...." category for me. I dunno, maybe I'll try to find "VI" quotes for Sotty.

For example, in this game I would probably only actively derail a wagon on Jason or Locke because I have strong town reads here.

I owe you answers to your other questions. But are you saying that right now, if Benmage--or hell, even Percy--was at L-1 and Baby Spice was the second viable wagon, you'd hammer?

(On a side note, funny comment about Ladies Night. I was on the replacement list and followed along, and spent the first couple of days headdesking. "Gah...no no NO! Why are you lynching Paws without a claim? Why the hell are you all mindlessly voting camn? Why is she giving up like that? You people are all idiots!" But then again, the town won there, and I consistently overthink myself into losses, so there you go.)

Percy I have suspected Nikanor/Thor almost since this game has started. Of course I am going to be down with IAI's pressure of him. Also the more recent pressure has been about forcing Thor to give opinions. I like that, even if I don't like the idea of you and him being linked that much.

Question. What bothered you about Thor

before

his posts today? Just the fact that he replaced Nikanor? I also got a little creeped out on this page by the joke that seemed to imply he was scum, and his attack on Baby Spice this page feels a bit overaggressive, but before that, he looked really genuine and townish to me.

[Mina]

I'd make a joke here but I think it would upset Sotty.

Okay, you're still creeping me out.

[Mina]

Okay, if anyone dares to vote for Percy

now

, I'm reaching through the computer monitor and strangling you.

Goddamn, I wish I'd finished the post I was writing before the flip. I was going to ask Kaleidoscope for his read on Baby Spice vs. Lrdwhyt.

Sotty is cleared. Thor is 90% cleared. I think the suspect pool at this point is me, Kaleidoscope, Empking, Furcolow, and Elmo--but to be honest, I'm even wavering on Furcolow because his reaction to hammering looked genuine.

[Mina]

Yeah. I'm 70% sure it's Empking as well. I'd thought BS wouldn't have been bold enough to distance like that, but their unwillingness to push each other afterward looked bad. I was actually getting cold feet on Empking because he didn't attack Baby Spice that hard in his catch-up post, and was writing, "Hmm, unless you're Baby Spice's scumbuddy, you aren't making the optimal scum move as the second leading wagon (just the

second

optimal one by attacking Percy)."

Elmo and Furc's reactions look pretty genuine (not that my gut has a fantastic track record), and although it irks me that Kscope never commented on the Baby Spice

or

Lrdwhyt wagons, he should have voted for Empking instead of Percy had he decided not to bus.

It's just...that is way too easy. My mind rebels at it ever being the obvious answer. It has to all be a convoluted scheme by Locke, dammit!

By the way, Percy never answered my question about why he was waiting for my Elmo post, but since it doesn't matter anymore,...fine, I'll admit it, Elmo. I did find your defence townish, you lurky bastard. But I STILL am meaning to respond to you--tomorrow, assuming the game doesn't end with Empking's lynch.

I don't know if Sotty still wants examples of where I got the idea that Baby Spice was a VI, since after her flip, it would only be an attempt to belatedly cover my ass. The only thing I have to say in my defence (since my earlier votes on mongoose/BS could be distancing) is that had I really wanted to save Baby Spice, I would have aggressively pushed Lrdwhyt harder (I can write a nasty frame case when I set my mind to it), rather than completely dropping my pressure of him and making a dead-end attack on Elmo while the Baby Spice wagon gathered more steam.

As in you think it's a scum tell? Or is creepy=interesting=hinky?
While you're at it, please refer to jason's post and tell me that didn't deserve a joke to be made immediately after it. Ben and I are softclaiming?

To be honest, I skimmed over jason's post. I thought you were joking about my getting creeped out by your alignment comment. And that set off my paranoia, as if you were going, "Ha ha, who me? Evil? Of course I'm not evil. Or

am I

?" But fair enough, it was kind of a fluffy, "You're giving me baaaaaad vibes" comment.

Unfortunately, I'll have zero time over the weekend. Unless someone comes out with a fantastic reason for why, say, jason could still be in the suspect pool, I get the feeling it really doesn't matter who we lynch in what order (we have at least four mislynches left, right?). But maybe for completion's sake, I'll reread the early Baby Spice/mongoose-Dry-Fit-Imkingdavid/Lrdwhyt interaction to see if it fits as a scumteam in a few days.

Anyway, I'll post what I was working on before, since it's still relevant:

======================================================
Kaleidoscope:

1) Why do you suspect Percy? Give us reasons. You mentioned that you hated his post about the Kingmaker. But on D1, was there anything else?
2) Why were you willing to explain to Percy before why you suspected Red Coyote, but not willing to explain to me why you suspected Percy?
3) I don't think you've answered this:

Why did you change your vote to RC at this point? I don't understand. You had said before that you were voting me only because of the size of the wagon. Moving your vote at this point made RC the bigger wagon by one vote because you moved from me. So, plz2explain?

Vote count before you switched from Percy to Red: 5 Percy vs. 4 Red
Vote count after you switched from Percy to Red: 5 Red vs. 4 Percy

You see why "I voted for the biggest bandwagon" doesn't fly?

4) What were your thoughts on Baby Spice vs. Lrdwhyt/Empking? Why didn't you ever weigh in on the leading wagons? Who would you have voted for had you chosen between the two wagons before the deadline? Be honest.

=========================================
Empking:

Town:
Benmage
I Am Innocent
KaleiÐoscøpe

Why do you think Kaleidoscope is town?

The Scum Side of Null:
Baby Spice

Mongoose

JasonT1981
Thor665

Nikanor

Interesting that jason made it here. Why do you think jason is scummy? Do you disagree with the reasons people such as Sotty have used to clear him?

Also, interesting that Baby Spice made your scummy list.

Very

interesting. See the following...

Leaning Scum:
Elmo - Reading his posts give me a town tell until I think about it and then it seems obvious that he's not really deserving of it. My reason for thinking about him as scum though is his votes during D1P1 that seemed immediately to defend DF before jumping on the DF wagon once it became inevitable. (VC: 8, 12)
Furcolow - Again its the votes. His first vote on DF when there wasn't a DF wagon and when one started to build he jumped off. His later vote looked oppertunistic bussing also. (VC: 7, 9, 11)
Percy - The fact that he has yet to be lynched looks like he's being protected by scum. The players and ways he's been voting also don't look good.

I can just imagine Percy's reaction when he sees this.

Which players do you think are protecting him if he's scum? Also, can you elaborate on which votes/suspects in particular you disagree with from Percy?

Because who has Percy spent the most energy attacking today? Baby Spice and Furcolow. Two players

you have listed as scumreads

.

Start backpedalling now and find an explanation for why you disagree with his votes and suspects even though

you share similar suspects

. Who in particular did you mean?

[Mina]

Oh, and by the way, Benmage? Are you still up for that avatar bet?

I'm going to sleep now. Eh, I can't think of a good reason

not

to do this.

VOTE: Empking

[Mina]

EBWOP: I just realized it probably wasn't fair to say Percy spent the

most

energy attacking those two players. It'll still be hilarious to see Empking try to justify himself, though.

[Mina]

I'll stop spamming the thread soon, but just for a lark, I ISO'd mongoose, and this stood out to me:

looking at furcolows last 4 posts he says he thinks we should hurry up and lynch someone, but doesn't say anything contributive as for WHO to lynch. then he gives a vote without information. I don't like that at all.

nothing else really jumped out at me

unvote, vote furcolow

I dont see anything wrong with dryfit to be honest. I think everything he has said can be justified.

n00b scum are adorable and unsubtle. But anyway, based on the contrast between his DF and Furc interaction, I doubt mongoose would have distanced that hard from Furcolow. So okay, I'd rule Furcolow as an unlikely mongoose partner.

Baby Spice is slightly craftier; at least she puts DF among her suspects, and her first scum list consists of Benmage, jason, Nikanor, Furc, and DF. It's WIFOM as to whether she'd include more than one of her buddies in that list. Oh, dear God. Her first posts basically just call every sentence in the game scummy for silly reasons. (I always get that cringeworthy feeling when I reread a flipped scum player of, "Ick, why didn't I notice the signs?" Maybe I should be entirely honest and admit my eyes sort of glazed over some of her earlier posts. In my defence, I find her thought process just so confusing and hard to follow that it masks her contradictions and distortions and lack of follow-through.) Never mentions IKD/LW or Kaleidoscope (or me). Just one comment--she openly listed Elmo as one of her three town reads. And then she says this:

Also Elmo is so obv town that he should be in the dictionary for it.

This is WIFOM, but I'd actually say that makes Elmo

less

likely to be her buddy.

AAAH, I'm half-asleep right now. I'm going to skim a bit, since a lot of this is WIFOM. Suffice it to say that Benmage is super-extra-confirmed town now.

At first, her LW vote looks like an opportunistic hop on a townie (which makes sense since Percy, the player she'd declared very loudly was town, was in the lead with four votes, and LW was tied with her at two). This is what makes me most nervous. Given how badly she played, would she have risked voting Lrdwhyt instead of a player she'd claimed to suspect? But I guess the fact that she mentioned "bussing" in the first place in her vote might be an example of protesting too much.

But yeah, then she REEEAAALLY goes on and on about how Sotty/Lrdwhyt is the most likely scum pairing, Sotty is bussing, etc. In retrospect, I agree with all those who said she might be trying to link them together as a scumteam, particularly since her only other link-based cases were (i) a minor point saying Percy

might

be scum if Benmage was, and (ii) this:

One of jason or Nik is scum. Bet on it. Unlikely both.

In retrospect, it looks like she's setting up two mislynches in a row--if one of them flips scum, hey, it doesn't cost her anything! It'd be a bit risky to rule a townie you're trying to scum up out as being scum. It makes jason and Thor yet

more

unlikely to be scum--jason in particular, since she was pushing him first. (Maybe I'm attributing too much logic to her, though.)

Also just noticed that jason was the swing vote from Percy to Baby Spice. Yet more town points for him. Good thing, or else I'd be wary of him for his "let's policy lynch Percy if Baby flips scum!" routine.

Aaah, I started looking at the vote counts, but some of them are from VP Baltar and some from Zachrulez, and oh my God,

why am I not in bed right now

? It's hard to follow if the timing of her votes make more sense for bussing or for trying to push a mislynch. Unfortunately, my Elmo wagon muddies the waters a bit. But anyway, she jumps off LW and votes Sotty after I vote Elmo. Hmm. Considering both Sotty and LW's wagons were less viable at that point and she claimed to suspect Sotty more, it's kind of null. LW voting Elmo, the only other wagon other than Percy to compete with LW, on the other hand, is very far from null.

That said, I noticed that as of this count, she

still

isn't on LW, even though it would save her skin:

Baby Spice - 4 (Percy, Sotty7, Thor665, JasonT1981)
Lrdwhyt - 4 (Locke Lamora, Benmage, Elmo, Furcolow)
Elmo - 2 (Mina, Lrdwhyt)
Percy - 2 (I Am Innocent, KaleiÐoscøpe)
Sotty7 - 1 (Baby Spice)

She only votes LW when IAI threatens to put her at L-1. Nothing to rule them out as buddies.

============================================================

I'm not really sure why I stayed up until past 4 AM doing this when I have work tomorrow morning and Empking's lynch is an inevitability. Probably because I'm obsessive-compulsive, and because I want to say I was right about

something

this game. I'll save rereading IKD/LW and seeing if DF and BS fit as partners for another day. So far, I don't see anything that makes someone else fit better as her partner. Um...she has zero interaction with Kaleidoscope, and she

could

be distancing with Nikanor early on, I guess. And she and Elmo fit as buddies only if they're doing a very postmodern "openly defending and kissing up to each other is the new distancing" routine. I once got away with that off-site, but I doubt it would fly on mafiascum.

[Mina]

EBWOP: LW voting Elmo, the only other wagon other than Percy to compete with LW

and Baby Spice

, on the other hand, is very far from null.

[Mina]

A scumtell from me or from you, Elmo? If it's the latter...um, thanks for confessing?

(oh my god WHY AM I STILL UP)

And EBWOP:

In retrospect, it looks like she's setting up two mislynches in a row--if one of them flips scum, hey, it doesn't cost her anything! It'd be a bit risky to rule a townie you're trying to scum up out as being scum.

In retrospect, it looks like she's setting up two mislynches in a row--if one of them flips town, hey, it doesn't invalidate any of her theories. Because she told you one BUT NOT both would be scum. So let's lynch the other one! It'd be a bit risky to rule out a townie you're trying to scum up as being scum.

[Mina]

Fuck. I'm busy this week modding a fast game off-site and don't have much time to defend myself. This is so frustrating.

You know what the irony is? I'd have never in a million years said something like, "Gee, people are wagoning Dry-Fit, so maybe I should reread him" *never mentions him again* had I

actually

been Dry-Fit's buddy and noticed he was the inevitable lynch. Or voiced how wishy-washy I am on Baby Spice so, soooo loudly, and complained that I found her kind of suspicious, but eh, I'm not sure, guys. Particularly when both of their lynches looked inevitable. Those are the kind of mistakes scum players make in their very first games. I knew the moment I saw both of their flips that I'd draw serious heat for my interactions with them--because yes, from an outside POV, they look

horrendously

scummy. Had I just kept my mouth shut, or attacked them for their scumslips (I usually make an effort to interact with my scumbuddies), or took a firm stand on them, or just hopped on their wagon once it looked inevitable, I'd still be in the lynch pool by process of elimination, but I wouldn't be in this much trouble, because errors of commission look more damning in a case than errors of omission.

But of course, the "too scummy to be scum" argument is WIFOM that won't convince anyone.

Yes, I look like their buddy by process of elimination. I haven't done a single thing all game to rule me out as either a DF or a Baby Spice scumbuddy. I should be lynched eventually, because we have mislynches to spare and I'll be a distraction in endgame. I screwed myself over by waffling too much. It's just upsetting me that every comment I've ever made all game about Baby Spice, every time I attacked her and every time I defended her, is being interpreted in the worst possible light--for example, it's scummy that I've

consistently

suspected Lrdwhyt more than Baby Spice, and unvoted Baby Spice

even though Thor's unvote made her lynch impossible

. I was really genuine in some of my responses to Sotty, and then Locke used that as proof that I'm scum

trying to call attention

to the fact that my behaviour isn't the ideal one for scum. Since I talk more than some of the other players do, there's obviously more to fill up a case with.

Really, I think the only argument I have in my defence is that for people accusing me of trying to save my scumbuddies, I did a

terrible

job of that. If you reread my Day Two Lrdwhyt interaction, I never go out of my way to sell his lynch despite having my vote on him. It would have been so easy to make a huge case on him like I did on Elmo, and break down his list of impressions and make him look really, really scummy, but instead I poked at other players and attacked Elmo...who I then completely dropped once my case got a following. That, and I think that I'm playing much more like I do as town than as scum to anyone who knows me. And in hindsight, waiting to hammer Red and for more time to lynch Baby Spice were the right moves for town (we got several reactions--Empking's, for example--that would have been useless had BS been hammered before everyone weighed in). Even if I get lynched for it, I'll maintain in postgame that I was right and you were all wrong.

If people think it would be helpful for me to write a longwinded rebuttal to Locke's case explaining why, for example, I found Furcolow scummier than Baby Spice, or where my turnaround on Baby Spice on Day One came from, I can give one. But to be honest, I agree with much of what Locke said, and think I'd be better off devoting my energy to attacking other players. You want to know why?

I remember Percy saying the town was allowed five mislynches, which made me think we only had five lynches to catch the killer after we messed up on Red. But then I did the math.

We're at twelve players right now.

1 lynch during D2, P2
After D2: 11 players
After N2: 10 players
2 lynches during D3 (3 in total)
After D3: 8 players
After N3: 7 players
2 lynches during D4 (5 in total)
After D4: 5 players
After N4: 4 players

So in other words, on Day Five, after mislynching five times, we'll be at one scum vs. three townies...

and we'll still have two more lynches.

Percy, where did you get the five mislynches number? Maybe someone should recheck my math, but by my count, we have seven lynches left.

Seven

.

All we need are five players we think are town, and we win. Sotty, Benmage, IAI, jason, Thor, Furcolow...does anyone think any of the above are scum?

Percy, Kaleidoscope, Empking, and Elmo. What would you say to a plan in which the five of us are speedlynched? I'm being entirely serious. Any objections?

I'll be honest and say I'd rather be one of the later lynches, because I have a really selfish, silly reason for not wanting to be mislynched this game if I don't have to be (which I'll save for after the game). But it's in the town's benefit to lynch me eventually. That said, I'd argue we should lynch Empking first, because if he flips town, itwould be damning evidence against both me and Elmo, and probably be a point in Kaleidoscope's favour. (Also, I'll be a little miffed if it turns out I got screwed for voting for the wrong scumbuddy.)

I'd still like to lynch Empking first. That said, I'm getting paranoid because Empking looks utterly unreadable regardless of alignment, and I'll admit his unvote of Furcolow for "looking genuine" freaked me out. Also, Elmo's weird scumtell and "bore-nom" comments that he refused to explain made him shoot up my suspect list, because I think it'd be in character for scum who knows he's just lost to stop making an effort. But I'd like to check Baby Spice's past games and see if she's the type to kiss up to a scumbuddy (which would help my reads of Elmo and Percy). Kscope STILL ignoring a pointblank questions and getting away with it because "that's his meta" is annoying, although TBH, it may be a null tell.

I'm votining Mina for her actions with regard to the BS wagon (mostly her going to the second largest to lend her support to it) but mostly its because of her insistance that I'd be the lynch today

without putting a vote on

. It seems to me that she ignored the Percy feelings due to trying to make sure we got through this part quickly so we wouldn't look closely at her posts (a difficult job at the best lof time considerring she's wrote a small novel's worth.)

What the hell are you talking about? My vote

is

on you. And what "Percy feelings" are you talking about?

Locke, your case is very impressive. I agree with every characterisation you have made of Mina's play, and the scum narrative is extremely compelling.

Unvote
Vote: Mina

Hey, Percy.

I want reasons, considering I called you earlier in the game on trying to buddy up to me and complimenting me and agreeing with all my reads even as you consistently listed me in the "neutral category" and never so much as once as asked me a stern question all game. I mean, considering you were the one calling Empking obvscum, so scummy, yadda, and Lrdwhyt has been your number two suspect all game, this turnaround seems to have come completely out of nowhere. Is it just that Locke's case is nicely formatted? You never noticed that I'd behaved badly re: Dry-Fit on Day One?

Oh, yeah. In case you aren't following, I want you lynched before Furcolow (who I've done a 180 on and I think is probably town, both because of mongoose's interactions and because of his reactions to Benmage's vote.) I think you're just the person who'd want to sacrifice your buddy for town cred given your terrible position. (Logically, it would also make sense for Thor, but he really feels townish to me.)

But it doesn't matter if you lynch me first, because if you're scum, you've already lost because your math sucks, and your cute bus was all for naught.

[Mina]

^So right now, the entire reason you're voting for me is that I voted Lrdwhyt over Baby Spice?

I'd have felt much better about you had you been honest and said it was self-preservation.

EBWOP: And I forgot Locke Lamora in my town list. Wow. I mean, even if we lynch me, Elmo, Empking, Percy, Kaleidoscope, AND Furcolow, that leaves us with a final three of confirmed-ish players (meaning someone pulled off a bus, but still). Scum have three nightkills, and I can think of four players in the "confirmed" pool who aren't total idiots and would probably make the right decision in that tight process-of-elimination decision. If we lose this game, then I'm either nominating the final scum for a Scummy or the townie who picks wrong in LYLO for a VI-of-the-Year award.

[Mina]

I hope you won't accuse me of buddying if I tell you that I love you ferociously right now, Thor. <3

But just to correct something, we have seven

lynches

, not

mislynches

. We can only afford to lynch incorrectly a mere piddling six times.

Also, in Kscope's defence, I think you're mixing him up with Benmage.

If I was voting based on self-preservation I'd have voted Percy this part.

Um, except when you voted for me, Percy and I were tied in the vote count? I'd also argue there was much more traction my way, since Sotty said she was tempted to vote for me. Actually, I'd have probably felt better about you had you voted Percy, because Percy was your strongest scum read before Baby Spice's lynch, while you claimed to have actually been

leaning town

on me.

You're clearly (and if you were being honest you'd know that) the best candidate for scum.

If you were being honest, you'd know that you're the best candidate for scum (at least from my POV). I'm not even sure why I'm bothering, since the only reason for me to defend myself given our position is pride. But let's look at this:

I'm votining Mina for her actions with regard to the BS wagon (mostly her going to the second largest to lend her support to it) but mostly its because of her insistance that I'd be the lynch today without putting a vote on. It seems to me that she ignored the Percy feelings due to trying to make sure we got through this part quickly so we wouldn't look closely at her posts (a difficult job at the best lof time considerring she's wrote a small novel's worth.)

So when Sotty called you on an opportunistic vote, your justifications were 1) I voted Lrdwhyt over Baby Spice (although, you know, considering I've consistently suspected Lrdwhyt more than Baby Spice all game and was voting for him even when Baby Spice wasn't a viable lynch, I don't think it's as bad as you popping in and voting for Percy out of nowhere), 2) I insisted you should be the lynch without voting for you (which is incorrect), and 3) I "ignored the Percy feelings" (whatever the hell that means) so that...um, people wouldn't read my posts (o

ka-a-ay

).

But here's the thing. All this happened loooooong before your vote. Apparently, you had no problem whatsoever with me not voting you and "ignoring the Percy feelings" for the beginning of phase two, during which you hopped between Furcolow and Elmo.

Coincidentally, you only REALIZED ALL OF THIS

after

I started looking nice and juicy and lynchable.

Furthermore, now that you've realized that my vote

was

on you (when you'd claimed your primary reason for voting me was that I hadn't voted you), you're changing your tune to "Wow, Mina looks scummy because she's trying to look town." Despite having listed me as one of your "leaning town reads" before.

Oh, and you never explained what you're talking about re: ignoring the "Percy feelings."

1. Stating the obvious in order to look town is a scum tell not a town tell. (Town want to lynch scum. Scum want to blow hot air in a way that helps them survive.)

Leaving aside that the "hot air" I'm blowing won't help me survive, since I'm asking people to lynch me eventually...oh, so you agree that it's obvious that the five of us should be lynched, Empking? (Even though you didn't say so yourself.)

Then why don't you agree to this plan (which guarantees we lose if either of us is scum but guarantees we win if either of us is town). We lynch you, me, Elmo, Percy, and Kaleidoscope. Any problem with that?

I'd like to know if you, Elmo, Percy, and Kaleidoscope think I'm making a mistake or narrowing my suspect list too much. Do you guys all agree to a ruthless culling of the five of us? Is there anyone you think should be ruled out of this pool for whatever reason? Would any of the five of you like to make substitutions to this list? Is there anyone I'm forgetting?

EBWOPreview: Oh, FFS. I was really getting confident in my Empking vote, too, and then Percy had to give me

that

reaction, which was exactly what I was looking for. I'll get to him in a minute.

2. Scum would know that BS was scum and would've voted him rather than voting for a wagon that had no chance to grow.

Thor preempted me to the point that...um, hi? Non-BS voter here? Also, your vote for Percy actually said, "wagon ho," so clearly you were trying to start momentum elsewhere. But fair enough that you were a somewhat better wagon than Percy--although I'd argue that I've been pretty consistently anti-Lrdwhyt since before Baby Spice was the leading wagon, so it's not as though my opinion came out of nowhere.

But Empking, other than yourself and Baby Spice, do you think there were any wagons that could be considered "viable"? Say you were scum. Who would you have voted for in order to protect Baby Spice?

========================================================================================================

Speaking of which, I've noticed Elmo lurking in the forum earlier today. I don't suppose you're willing to answer this:

Also Elmo is so obv town that he should be in the dictionary for it.

This is WIFOM, but I'd actually say that makes Elmo

less

likely to be her buddy.

I'm actually starting to think this is a scumtell.

:<

A scumtell from me or from you, Elmo? If it's the latter...um, thanks for confessing?

or this:

@Elmo - you've practically not given a substantive post since the lynch, is there a strategy here or are you just lost?

Why are you so apathetic about this game, given that the town is almost certainly going to win?

[Mina]

You know, I was writing a huge, wishy-washy post in response to Percy, but I'd just like to call attention to this, first. Because this--THIS--is the smoking gun. I'm actually mulling over switching my vote him. I think he's essentially destroyed every good feeling I've had about him all game, purely with two paragraphs.

You're right about the number of mislynches we get. Believe it or not, I don't suck at maths, but I do kinda suck at arithmetic... Still, we're going to play this out old-school. Oh it's going to be brutal, but there will be no resting on laurels and/or pre-determining lynches. It's a terrible idea when the town is in such a commanding position to cede all our ground simply because we can. We're going to lynch the people we find scummy, one at a goddamned time, with reasons and wagons and debate. Your suggestion is

incredibly

scummy, and I have

serious

objections to any plan that involves anything of the sort.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Thank you. Thank you, thank you,

thank you

for that.

So Percy. You think I'm scummy for suggesting a plan that guarantees my lynch--and not because it's WIFOM to make myself look more town (which, okay,

might

work as a desperate attempt at reverse psychology, and was maybe what Empking was going for), but because

the plan itself

is antitown, and somehow furthers my agenda as scum.

You're a good enough player to know that this is total bullshit.

Answer me right now, Percy. Do you think that any one of Sotty, jason, Benmage, IAI, Locke, Thor, or Furcolow has any chance whatsoever of being scum? I want you to name which one. No, not this total cop-out of, "But...they might make the wrong decision!" Total fucking cop out. Who do you think is scum of Benmage, IAI, Furcolow, and jason?

Why

?

Seriously. What's the flaw in that plan? Do you think that lynching you, me, Empking, Elmo, and Kaleidoscope will lose us the game?

Let's say we lynch me and Empking. The game is still not over. Do you think the final scum will be someone other than Elmo or Kaleidoscope?

I am going to force you to pin yourself down to an opinion right now, Percy. So you can't wriggle yourself out of it, and play it one mislynch at a time, and hope the town implodes to second-guessing and paranoia in endgame and tries to lynch jason or IAI or someone like that.

Oh, fine, maybe I'm exaggerating when I say "speedlynch"--we can have a bit of debate day by day as to who can go first. But I know you. You'd

thrive

at taking it slow as scum, at trying to blind people with rhetoric and win them over with long posts and reasonableness.

Again, if you said I was faking my willingness to be lynched, or that I've given up, maybe I'd have bought it. But you're saying I'm scum

for the plan itself

. So tell me. How does organizing five speedlynches,

of which I'm one

, help me if I'm scum? The fact that you're trying to spin the fact that I'm proposing this plan into proof that I'm scum looks as though you're terrified of the town following it. No way in hell do you believe what you claim to believe.

I'm sad I didn't get a reaction from Kscope or Elmo first, but this was

exactly

the reaction I was looking for. Thank you for falling so nicely into my trap.

==============================================================================================
Ugh. It's like all the players in the suspect pool have decided that since the game is too easy for scum, they're going to behave as suspiciously as possible just to make this take longer. Um...on the bright side, at least I'm starting to feel better about Kaleidoscope purely on gut, even though he STILL ISN'T ANSWERING MY QUESTIONS GODDAMMIT!

[Mina]

Aaah, I start work soon, and the game I'm modding right now needs attention.

Empking still looks really scummy, but I just want to hear what Locke has to say before the day ends about Percy and Empking (since he might be dead tomorrow, and since I'm not 100% confident that people will follow through on lynching Percy eventually if the game doesn't end with this).

UNVOTE: until Locke posts, just so nobody hammers. Sorry to burst your bubble, Furcolow. I

said

it didn't have to be a speedlynch.

Percy. You really cannot see what town-Mina's motivation would be for suggesting that plan? And you really cannot see what scum-Percy's would be for behaving the way you did toward it? I see dissonance between "a plan that is only bad if you think I'm not scum" and "me being scummy for pushing a bad plan." Your explanation of you not thinking we'd follow through with it would have been plausible had you said that at the time. Instead, you tried to imply it was scummy in the first place for pushing speedlynches. Ugh. Locke (who was the one who made the case on me in the first place) agreeing that my plan makes more sense for town confirms that I'm not just imagining that something doesn't fit here.

I also really don't like how you were trying to paint me as scummy for saying I was writing a response to you but wanted to post ONE point against you first. "Haha, it's a good thing you say you're going to answer the rest of my post...because wow, would it be scummy if you DIDN'T respond to the rest of my post. Look at how you're trying to dodge my questions, you scummy scumbag." Unfortunately, I'll have to save my explanation of what made me decide to put you back in the suspect pool for tonight, when I have more time.

Aah, I'm getting really paranoid. I really want it to be Empking (and not just because of my pride, but because it will save me a lot of stress and heartache).

But in the meantime...

Empking, I still haven't heard a reaction from you to my plan. Kaleidoscope, too. Elmo, say we replaced "speedlynches" with "reasonable debate as to who would go first." Do you still agree that the scum are almost certainly in that group of five players? I Am Innocent, since you found Percy's reaction to my plan scummy, does that mean you think the plan is a good one?

[Mina]

Um...

Unvote

I'll probably put my vote back on Empking later, but I'd just like to hear from Locke, Empking, Kaleidoscope, Elmo, and IAI first.

Also, I'll explain more about what I was trying to accomplish by proposing my plan tonight. I honestly think we'll win the game if we lynch me, Empking, Percy, Elmo and Kaleidoscope, but I'lll admit I also had an ulterior motive. More later, when I'm not late for work and posting from a phone.

I'll also respond to Locke in a bit.

[Mina]

I've been working on a big post for awhile, but since I'm still distracted by the game I'm modding, it won't be ready for a bit. Does anyone see any reason whatsoever for me to respond to Percy or Sotty or Locke or anything I missed, or explain my ulterior motive for proposing the plan, before hammering Empking?

What freaks me out is that he's the only one who gave the "townish" answer to my question.

[Mina]

Actually, before I hammer, one last question, just in case the game doesn't end and Sotty dies:

Sotty, how sure are you that jason is innocent? 100%? I highly doubt he's scum based on his interactions with the flipped players, but I occasionally get a twinge of paranoia due to his inactivity and to reasoning I disagree with. If you know him well enough to say that this absolutely isn't his scum play, then I'll trust your judgment and treat him as confirmed.

[Mina]

Goddammit, Benmage, that was supposed to be my hammer. I'd have liked to say I was on one scum lynch this game. <_<

Actually, another question in case this game doesn't end. before thread lock--Locke, what's the catch you were hiding on Elmo?

[Mina]

I'd also have liked to hear an answer, but Ben definitely isn't scum, jason. By your question, were you implying that you find it suspicious, or just a bad move?

Okay, I had a huge post typed up explaining what my motivation was for suggesting the speedlynch plan, but since you're online, might as well ask this first: jason, if the game doesn't end with Empking's lynch, would you agree with a speedlynch-Mina-Elmo-Percy-Kaleidoscope plan? What about lynching Mina, Elmo, Percy, and Kaleidoscope after lots and lots of discussion? Any objections?

[Mina]

You know what I don't get?

Last vote count: 11:45 AM.
Ben's hammer: 11:48 AM.
Time right now: 1:11 AM
Mina's heart rate: 205 BPM

The worst is that I'll have to stay up until about 3:30 AM because no one's around to watch my soul-sucking fast game at the deadline, so instead of just going to bed and allowing myself time to decompress, I'll be continuously refreshing this window.

[Mina]

(Apparently I don't know the difference between AM and PM.)

The questions to Sotty and Locke are actually good to have answered before night, for obvious reasons. I think Locke is in the UK, so he should be able to reply before Zach returns, anyway.

Besides, I don't relish the inevitable paranoia and stress and epic, bloody battle with Percy involving pages of soul-sucking quote walls that will happen tomorrow if it's not Empking.

[Mina]

This really sucks.

Do people actually want a defence from me against Locke's case? Normally, I'd be going down kicking and screaming, because I'd refuse to let myself be mislynched, and "Let's lynch her because everyone else suspects her and she's a

distraction

" is the worst, laziest excuse to coast ever...but in this case, we have more lynches than suspects. This is weird, but I'd actually feel kind of selfish for defending myself. I can try to explain my motivations more for suspecting Furcolow over Baby Spice, but I don't think I've done anything that should 100% rule me out of the suspect pool. The only argument I'd have for keeping me alive would be that I'm putting more effort into scumhunting than other members of the suspect pool, but my reads have been terrible, anyway.

That, and vote for me after evaluating every player and deciding that you think I'm most likely to be scum and you don't think the evidence suggesting that I'm town is convincing, not because you want the easy answer out of the way. Because I'm in a unique position to know that this game will last a long time.

Could people at least wait for me to write posts on other players before lynching me? There's a lot I'd really like to say about Percy in particular.

Voting Fur because his end of day 2 phase 2 actions were anything but town and I felt scum was melting down. His hammer, with questions left on the table seemed like a deliberate attempt to cut of communication. Something scum would do. The hammer also seem,ed opertunistic, seemingly like he was sitting with a grin on his face knowing the flip would be town./

Um...jason? You realize that Benmage was the one that hammered, right? In fact, you even mentioned him by name here:

Hmmm, why did Ben hammer before Sotty had a chance to answer Minas question?

Speaking of which, can you answer this:

I'd also have liked to hear an answer, but Ben definitely isn't scum, jason. By your question, were you implying that you find it suspicious, or just a bad move?

and this:

Okay, I had a huge post typed up explaining what my motivation was for suggesting the speedlynch plan, but since you're online, might as well ask this first: jason, if the game doesn't end with Empking's lynch, would you agree with a speedlynch-Mina-Elmo-Percy-Kaleidoscope plan? What about lynching Mina, Elmo, Percy, and Kaleidoscope after lots and lots of discussion? Any objections?

[Mina]

0_0

Wow. Nul is...wow.

Percy, I told you it was coming, but there was no point wasting my breath when Empking was going to be hammered any moment and the game might end. Also, this took me hours and hours to write. Just wondering, do you see a scum motivation for the delay? Or are you just really, really curious to know what I think of you?

Fine, I'll save the soul-crushing meta analysis spreadsheet of DF/mongoose/BS I was working on for later and pay attention to you first.

I saved what I had of my post, but this is kind of schizoid in tone. When I wrote part of this a week ago, I was really caught up in the moment and aggressive and upping the rhetoric. But since then, much of the wind has gone out of my sails, and I've lost my conviction. I keep wondering if I'm "jumping at shadows," to quote Percy.

I had a brief moment of paranoia after BS accused her of bussing and Sotty linked me and Elmo to BS before the flip...but I feel quite strongly on gut that Sotty isn't scum. Now that Hydra Mafia is over, I can say that I noticed a huge difference between her interactions with me in this game and in the latter, which was part of what made me suspicious of her slot there. She's just much more proactive and passionate, she thinks things over, and she shows a nuanced thought process. Actually, I'm more suspicious of jason (who STILL HASN'T ANSWERED MY QUESTIONS GODDAMMIT) than I am of Sotty.

But speaking of which, what happened to this:

I think Sotty is prob town after the flip. Unless it gets to LyLo and things are very confusing, I won't be making my promised case against her.

Of course they all have a chance of being scum. The burden of proof rests with you, not me. I think they have less of a chance of being scum than other players; a scum continuum from least to most likely would look like <jason, Benmage, Locke, Sotty, Thor, IAI, Furcolow

So now Sotty is your second suspect if I flip town? What happened to Thor, IAI, and Furcolow? Or hell, Kaleidoscope or Nul?

I still don't know whether you think I'm scum. Your behaviour yesterday with all the "trap" talk was very confusing.

Confusing = scummy? Please elaborate. And you still never answered this:

Percy. You really cannot see what town-Mina's motivation would be for suggesting that plan? And you really cannot see what scum-Percy's would be for behaving the way you did toward it? I see dissonance between "a plan that is only bad if you think I'm not scum" and "me being scummy for pushing a bad plan." Your explanation of you not thinking we'd follow through with it would have been plausible had you said that at the time. Instead, you tried to imply it was scummy in the first place for pushing speedlynches.

========================================================================
When Percy fell for my "trap," I did seriously consider changing my vote, simply because my visceral reaction was so negative. If Empking had not been actively scummy and unhelpful, and were I a much more impulsive player, maybe I might have done it. Then Elmo came out with an

even worse

answer to my speedlynch plan, and then I started rereading Percy's ISO, finding townish stuff there, and second-guessing myself. The honest answer is that I really don't know if Percy is scum anymore. I keep waffling on whether I should vote him or Nul or some random person or just roll over and die and let more competent players sort it out in endgame. You're definitely one of the few left in the dwindling suspect pool. But right now, I'm trying to find a needle in a haystack, and every player has done at least one thing that suggests that he's town.

Hey Mina,

I don't understand how you can at once say:

Yes, I look like their buddy by process of elimination.

...while at the same time say:

Is it just that Locke's case is nicely formatted?

Your defence is, essentially, that you're too scummy for scum, and that if you were actually acum with Dry-fit and Baby Spice you would have done a better job of keeping them alive. It is really that surprising that I like this case?

That's my defence against the

connections

part of Locke's case. I can defend my play, but not against coincidental comments that make me look terrible after a scum flip. But sadly, it's the truth that I'd have played differently at certain points as scum. Everyone will notice someone coming out and saying, "Oh my God, why are you lynching Baby Spice when you don't suspect her! Unvote, you idiot, UNVOTE!" "Hmm, that DF is being wagoned. Interesting. Maybe I should reread him." At least the former has scum motivation, since I might have been desperate to save Baby Spice, panicked, and overreacted. But the latter is a statement that doesn't protect Dry-Fit or make myself look better by distancing myself from him. It's just going out of my way to link myself to him, and screaming from the rooftop, "Hey, look at my wishy-washy opinion on DF! I'm his buddy!" And unfortunately, that argument is pure WIFOM, which is why I accept that I belong on the lynch list by PoE. It's just annoying to actually

be

too scummy to be scum. <_<

Actually, come to think of it, I can think of one point in my defence. I'll be honest and say I disagree with Furc's assessment of me vs. DF--I definitely would have asked DF a token question or two as scum. I'd argue my early vote and pressuring of mongoose makes me less likely to be scum, but

maybe

I might have done that as distancing. But considering how ineptly mongoose handled DF's wagon, mongoose's early interactions with me (trying to appease me, being relieved that I unvoted and called him Bambi) are not how I think he'd react were we actually scumbuddies.

Somehow, I doubt everyone will mass-unvote now, though.

And the fact that it is very nicely put together doesn't mean I'm somehow blinded by the quote boxes. WTF? I know you've been upset that I haven't been pressuring people enough (which is laughable, given that the Baby Spice wagon would never have happened without me), but I've decided that it's you who needs the pressure right now. I'm sorry you didn't see this coming and counted me a close ally, but I think you're probably our last scum, and lynching you will win us the game.

I explain more of why I disliked your vote below.

I think Sotty and

possibly

Thor (still haven't reread him) both deserve as much of the credit for the BS lynch. Furthermore, not only do I dislike you trying to milk your BS vote for town cred when you were the one arguing you heavily bus as scum, but you're missing the point. (In all fairness, when I'm rereading your ISO, I'm not sure the lack of pressure accusation is accurate, since you do interact with players on D1. It's mainly that I find it easier as scum to write a long post in which I make a case on someone else rather than getting into a back-and-forth, and I found that you seemed prone to making long posts commenting on other events rather than making events happen themselves.) Maybe my problem is that you didn't

interact

with Baby Spice much. All your posts on her are directed at the town.

Also, I didn't like the tone of your "I'm sorry you didn't see this coming and counted me as a close ally." Do you honestly believe this?

Remember this?

Like, there is no way that Baby Spice and Percy are scumbuddies, for example. Not just because Percy's throwing her under a bus--because he's throwing her under a bus at the same time that she's been kissing up to him and calling him obvtown all game.

Or this?

Okay, if anyone dares to vote for Percy

now

, I'm reaching through the computer monitor and strangling you.

But now you're saying:

But I'd like to check Baby Spice's past games and see if she's the type to kiss up to a scumbuddy (which would help my reads of Elmo and Percy).

...

Oh, yeah. In case you aren't following, I want you lynched before Furcolow (who I've done a 180 on and I think is probably town, both because of mongoose's interactions and because of his reactions to Benmage's vote.) I think you're just the person who'd want to sacrifice your buddy for town cred given your terrible position. (Logically, it would also make sense for Thor, but he really feels townish to me.)

This is a gobsmackingly scummy reaction from you. You've turned about your (extremely sensible) read just because I voted you? Add in the patronising comment and I think we have a scum Mina on our hands for sure.

Leaving aside that OMGUS and being patronizing aren't scumtells (and thanks for reminding me that if you're scum, you've been laughing your ass off at me in your QT all game )...a lot of posts happened between them, even though I didn't get a chance to respond. Fine, here's the evolution from thinking you were town to "whatever this is":

My visceral reaction to the lynch was relief that the kneejerk anti-Percy brigade would stop whining once and for all, because there was firm evidence in his favour.

Afterward, I started having doubts. Your first posts out of the gates were, "Look how town this makes me look, and I can't believe you idiots are

still

wagoning me." You were really trying to maximize the town credit that you deserve for lynching Baby Spice, and it made me paranoid that your primary interest was trying to clear yourself from the suspect pool.

Then I started thinking it over. Let's say you were scum, and the breakaway leading wagon. That would be a great time to start an unlikely-to-take-off wagon against a buddy, particularly one who's a weaker player. Either you create distance after your death, you buy yourself town credit by sacrificing a useless buddy, or with any luck, it doesn't take off and you vote the other guy using the "self-preservation" excuse. I already said that it really seemed as though your initial vote for BS was more of an "okay, so this case and this case have been nullified...um, why not this player people accused of a scumslip?" (although I've just noticed that you mention suspecting Benmage less because of BS on D1P1, so maybe that wasn't fair). I was paranoid when you claimed to be convinced Red was town based on one paragraph, but then when you received an eleventh-hour reprieve, you never followed up on your promised post and didn't come back to defend him. And considering your position in the game, I really think you might have considered it a good strategic option to bus your remaining buddy as a desperate attempt to save yourself.

Furthermore, some of your play today has rubbed me the wrong way. It's very subtle and hard to put into words, and if I blink, I think I've imagined it. You're damn impossible to pin down as scum except with gut, and my gut is...um, iffy at best. For one thing, I take back my earlier assumption that it didn't feel like you were trying to manipulate us. Aside from the buddying thing, your responses to my early D2 suspicions felt as though, without outright insulting me, you were trying to make me feel silly for suspecting you. At first, it made me feel sheepish for coming forward with such nebulous suspicions. But on a reread, I had doubts. You didn't explain why you were buddying up to a null read. Instead of explaining your thought process, it felt as though you were turning it around on me, what with all the "..?" punctuation marks and the "Really, are you

sure

you think this?" vibes. I find that some really really good manipulators do this as scum.

Did all this make me want to vote for you, or even put you among my top suspects?

Not at all.

But I decided that you were more likely to be scum than some of the other players who'd pushed DF or BS. Therefore, since we had seven lynches, one of them should be you so as to be safe.

And I'll admit that your sudden suspicions of me made me a lot warier of you. What bothered me was that I'd felt as though you were trying to buddy up to me before. You kept on listing me as a neutral read, saying you were unsure of me, etc., but not

once

did you attack me head-on. Instead, you just kept on agreeing with throwaway comments I made and complimenting me on a read or a funny line. Like I said before, it gave me the feeling that you wanted to keep an ally on your side, but still leave yourself open to suspect me. When I called you on it, you dodged the issue of whether you suspected me, but said you can't help yourself, because my posts are sooooooo great. So then sudden turnaround to "Hmm, I never noticed this before, but you guys are

right

, and Mina is super scummy, and let's lynch her," set off a bell.

Seriously, you did not

once

wonder if I was Baby Spice's (your top suspect's) buddy, or have a concrete reason to suspect me, until Benmage made a one-liner voting for me? "Yeah, now that you mention it, Benmage, Mina

could

be BS's buddy who was AtE-ing. Actually, Locke, that case is fantastic, and I've suddenly changed my mind on her." Sotty had been calling me BS's buddy

before

the flip.

But up until you popped up and gave

exactly

the answer I'd expect from scum to a plan that would ensure his own as well as his suspect's lynch, I was only mildly paranoid of you. I thought it was Empking. You were on the lynch list mostly by process of elimination.

So bottom line, I can't clear you from the suspect pool. We had seven lynches. One of them should be used on you, because you're more likely to be scum than Furcolow is.

And note that I said I would check Baby Spice's meta to see if I can reconcile you or him being scum with my initial opinion that BS wouldn't have risked calling you obvtown. It's not as though my turnabout came out of nowhere. Because right now, my instincts are telling me that something doesn't fit about either your behaviour or Elmo's behaviour, so I want to reevaluate an assumption I've been making in both of your favours. Maybe BS is bolder than I'd thought.

(Besides, you were in

A Clash of Kings

Mafia. You know how often I've incorrectly cleared scum of being partners with their buddies. I'm trying to keep an open mind.)

You're like me when you get caught as scum; you get really mad that you haven't been caught for the right reasons

Well, this is interesting.

What are you talking about? Since the entire case on me is based on connections rather than my own behaviour, the "caught for the wrong reasons" tell would only apply if I'm on a second scum team. I've actually admitted that my interactions with the flipped scum look bad. So it's the opposite--I'm "framed for the right reasons." Please explain just what you mean by this.

But you realize just what you've implied, right? Because that explains

so

much about your behaviour this game.

Yeah, you've been wagoned for crap reasons. And you've got really, really pissed off about it as well. See, that's another thing that's been niggling at me. In

A Clash of Kings

Mafia, you got all annoyed at Drippereth in the Kingsguard QT and said you'd refuse to respond to her unless she provided a case on you. And then you did the exact same thing to the players who have been wagoning you this game. "Waaaaah, I refuse to interact with you unless you remove your votes from me."

While I still think the Empking slot has a better chance of being scum than most, I think yours has more. Trying to paint my vote on you as somehow betraying my case against the Empking slot is terribad.

I'll be honest--I think I might have confused Thor's "OMG, Empking is obvobvobvscum" posts with yours. Looking back, I remember this as being more emphatically anti-Empking than it was:

@Empking: You put BS as "The Scummy Side of Null" after asking Thor for the case against Baby Spice, which he provided. That was all you said about Baby Spice, no comment on it even though we were close to a lynch and BS turned out to be scum. Instead you wagonned me!

Mix in the case against Lrd and we have some tasty scum pudding. Nom.

But still, you piggyback on all of Thor's work at attacking him, and use lots of rhetoric ("tasty scum pudding"). You didn't once attack me, and consistently listed LW as your number two suspect. You have such a strong read on him, but the moment Locke makes his case, suddenly the caul is ripped from your eyes and you see the light? My problem was that rather than come to your own conclusion, it seemed as though

other players' posts

suddenly changed your mind. I discussed this above, but I still don't think your 180 looked organic. So I decided to pressure you on your vote and see how you'd justify yourself. And I

hated

your reaction.

And rather than re-write Locke's excellent post, I'll quote the most relevant sentence:

I think this displays a contradictory thought process because it's quite evident from every Mina post after her BS vote that she doesn't see BS as scum. She's always saying that she agrees with this point or that, or that she wouldn't miss BS too much, but when it comes down to it, she consistently takes the position that BS is a mislynch.

I didn't want to write a huge defence to Locke's post, so I'll just be brief and say that I don't see the contradiction. It was wishy-washiness, but not dissonance. I find weak players who argue ridiculous things impossible to read (I'm not sure what to make of Nul, either), and I can't tell the difference between misrepping and simply being an idiot. I could intellectually say, "Yeah, I guess I can see where she might have been setting up mislynches in this post," or "yeah, this is a stupid theory." And because she was so hard to read and useless, I really

wouldn't

have been that broken up about her lynch had she been town. But something about the lynch didn't sit right in my gut. Partly it was that I thought she was the always-scummy-looking type given what little I'd seen of her play, partly it was Benmage constantly calling her a town VI rubbing off on me, partly it was that I thought trying to trap someone was a towntell (although maybe in hindsight, I shouldn't have bought her excuse). I wasn't that confident that she would flip scum.

Also, I'm just curious. Why didn't you notice these contradictory thoughts of mine on Baby Spice until Locke pointed it out?

You know what? I was getting really caught up in my Percy=scum theory as I wrote this. And then I started ISO-ing him for examples, and doubted myself again. "But..but...he sounds so

reasonable

here! And here he really seems confident that he will flip town. And that was such an insightful question! And would scum be

that

bold?" But the beauty of it is that

it doesn't matter

. For once, I don't have to be right about something. Because you're dead either way.

Really, I want the takeaway of this post to be, "Do not give Percy a free pass, because he's still in the suspect pool." I'd just like the players who trust Percy to reread him with an open mind, particularly if the game goes on for another day. Percy is close to impossible to read, he's perfectly capable of looking warm and fuzzy and reeeeaaaaasooonaaaaaable as scum, and I think there have been a few warning signs with him.

So if you're town, then you'll win the game eventually. If you're scum, then you've just lost the game by process of elimination. You have no chance in hell of getting yourself out of this mess. Get over it.

===========================
Okay,

now

do you see why I kept putting that off?

[Mina]

*winces* Oh my God.

I...I just copied and pasted the entire thing into a Word document. It topped

three thousand, five hundred words

(although that was including Percy's quotes). I am so sorry, everyone. Even I'd refuse to read that.

It'd be nice if a few players would step up their game right now and stop coasting. Too tired to post something substantial, but...

jason, I was referring to my questions in this post. Also, another one, while I'm at it. Percy was at four votes and Baby Spice was at three. Then you switched from Percy to Baby Spice, making it four for BS and one for Percy.

Obviously, that's a good thing. But can you just elaborate on what made you decide Baby Spice was a better lynch than Percy? Percy was your top suspect all day before then.

Benmage, what do you mean, "it's too late"? For me? For Percy? And what was the point of using disparaging fake-quotes to refer to my "case"--because it was more of an indecisive ramble than a case, or because you

didn't read it, just like you didn't read my Elmo case

disagree with it?

Maybe you want to speed through this, but this is almost certainly my last day in the game. I won't be around to get my thoughts out and make decisions in endgame. So sorry to break this to you, but I'm going to talk...and talk...and

talk

. Besides, I still don't know who the last scum is.

More on Nul/Kaleidoscope/Percy/Thor later, when I'm not exhausted. Would like a response to Percy to my dissertation.

Also, it's annoying that everyone's ignoring my lynch list (seriously, Thor, jason, and Sotty are

not

scummier than Nul and Kaleidoscope--anyone remember him?).

My vote for Mina would pretty much be

either sheeping Locke's case

, or for the reasons I noted in 1128 - and is probably a vague and uncertain combination of both. If she's scum, huzzah for our side, if she's town she has to go because we'll be having this debate before every single lynch otherwise.

Okay, maybe I can buy that you're willing to lynch me in spite of your D2 town read simply to remove a distraction or get information, although it's not an argument I'm a fan of. But what happened to this:

I've only ever played with Mina as town. She dithers as town. Unless she doesn't dither as scum (which I doubt) all that shows is dithering is a normal part of her meta and

is not the most optimal place to build a case and when I read Locke's case that's what I see - 'Mina didn't make solid commitments to reads'

.

It seemed that you didn't like Locke's case much at the time, but now you're listing it as one of your primary reasons for voting me.

Are you saying that yesterday, I was your number two suspect after Empking? So had Empking flipped town, you were fully intending to vote for me today--it was only that Empking looked so much scummier that I was townish by comparison?

[Mina]

EBWOP: "making it four for Baby Spice and

three for Percy

."

[Mina]

I think benmage asks a great question of Mina, why aren't you voting Percy. You wrote that epic novel on him that really made me understand where you were coming from but for you not to follow up with a vote seems... Weird. Are you really second guessing yourself that much? There is a disconnect here somewhere.

Well...

yes

. I'm not ready to vote. I want to hear a defence to Percy for that post. I haven't even

gotten

to Nul's posts. My mind still hadn't been made up. For the record, I'm pissed off that you're using that against me, considering that he's the leading counterwagon and my only hope of saving my skin. I should have pretended to be more confident than I actually was for self-preservation's sake.

Actually, I was in the middle of writing a post in which I was going to vote for

Kaleidoscope

, although mostly as pressure to get him to answer all the questions that he's been ignoring all game and give solid reads. Then had he answered my questions, I was going to vote for either Nul or Percy.

Guys, can you wagon Kaleidoscope during phase 2, even if you don't lynch him? The slot could use a bit of pressure. Please get him to answer these questions:

Kaleidoscope:

1) Why do you suspect Percy? Give us reasons. You mentioned that you hated his post about the Kingmaker. But on D1, was there anything else?
2) Why were you willing to explain to Percy before why you suspected Red Coyote, but not willing to explain to me why you suspected Percy?
3) I don't think you've answered this:

Why did you change your vote to RC at this point? I don't understand. You had said before that you were voting me only because of the size of the wagon. Moving your vote at this point made RC the bigger wagon by one vote because you moved from me. So, plz2explain?

Vote count before you switched from Percy to Red: 5 Percy vs. 4 Red
Vote count after you switched from Percy to Red: 5 Red vs. 4 Percy

You see why "I voted for the biggest bandwagon" doesn't fly?

4) What were your thoughts on Baby Spice vs. Lrdwhyt/Empking? Why didn't you ever weigh in on the leading wagons? Who would you have voted for had you chosen between the two wagons before the deadline? Be honest.

Sotty, what do you think of Percy? You said you saw where I was coming from, but you didn't give your own thoughts on the case.

Can you just give me some time to get out my last reads before hammering? I'll also explain more about what my motivation for suggesting the speedlynch plan, and why it should be bad evidence against both Percy and Nul. I'd also prefer you wait for Percy to give an answer to my epic wallpost, but if not, then please, please pressure him to answer it.

(EBWoPreview: Never mind, I though I was at L-1 for some reason.)

I'll be out for a while, but I can stay up late tonight and try to finish them. I'll try to get them done before the weekend so everyone can move on.

[Mina]

^Do you actually want me to post what I have written? It's all gibberish and half-finished sentences discussing my reads. I don't write in linear fashion.

I wasn't going to announce, "Guys, it's a pressure wagon!" but it seemed as though everyone had agreed that phase one was over, anyway.

[Mina]

^Thanks, Sotty.

This weekend is a really bad time for me. I'll be working all day tomorrow and then be out at a Christmas party (for which I don't have an outfit to wear). I'll try to stay up late tonight and write as much as I can for those who are really really impatient to kill me already, though.

(You know, if you're impressed with how well I'm cooperating, you guys could make it up to me by offering to replace into a very short and close-to-finished open game in which I can't end the night until I find a replacement. *puppy dog eyes*)

I'll cut to the chase and say that my current suspect tiers (where higher up means more suspicious) are the following:

Tier 1: Nul, Percy, Kaleidoscope
Tier 2: Thor, IAI, Furcolow
Tier 3: Sotty, Benmage, jason

I'd ideally like to ISO each player on that list and post my notes before I die, though, although I don't think everyone wants to wait for me to do that. Really, I think every player (including those on the top tier) has done at least one thing this game that looks very innocent, so I'm at a bit of a loss.

Would people like reasons why I trust the bottom tier, or should I just stick to ISO-ing the top third or two-thirds of that list?

So, if Mina flips scum I'm allowed to mock Sotty, yes?

Sotty has had me as a low-grade suspect all game, and you haven't attacked me once all game. Is this joke sincere, sarcastic, or just an attempt to look innocent? Are you really saying you'd deserve credit if I were scum when you'd have been the very LAST person to catch on?

Look at the number of pretty assured town we have. Look at the number of suspects you have. This is not hard math. If I am that big of a distraction/confusion to town I *should* be lynched. That's half the argument for Mina now - she's potential scum and

she's suspicious

. We've got a hella'ton of lynches available. Let's pop the players who are

super suspicious

and either nail scum or narrow the field. Scum lost this game ages ago, we're just mopping up here.

All right, that does it. You're saying you find me "super suspicious"? I'm calling you on this.

Some of your quotes from yesterday:

Isn't voting Mina for dithering a bit like voting Furcolow for OMGUSing? I dunno, I agree Mina looks bad but she just doesn't feel that scummy to me. Meanwhile we have Empking who is most assuredly acting dicey around important wagons and whose predecessors did the same. He's even been bouncing around today trying to be wherever it looks like an alternate wagon is going to spring up.

Mina's last post

looks so town

.
Empking's last post looks so scum.

Please don't make me have to evolve into Benmage as my next evolutionary step of meta.

No, I consider; 'hey look, we have 7 mislynches, here's a list of who we shouldn't lynch, now let's lynch everyone else (including me) and we almost assuredly win automatically and if not those people on the 'not lynch' list should be able to muddle through in endgame"

a town tell

. Also, I actually agree that if the case on her is legit she'd have to be pretty derpy town when it comes to understanding how to bus/defend her buddies.

At the very least I consider it less scummy then 'If I was scum I'd be on Percy right now...never mind that I was on Percy yesterday and was on Percy for a period of time today.'

Seriously. You don't just seem to suspect Empking more than me (although I left in the last line of that third quote for objectivity's sake). You seem to strongly feel that

I'm town

. Now you're saying you found my behaviour suspicious all along...but you were just sooooooo much more certain of Empking that you couldn't even

believe

that I'd be scum.

Also, you never answered this:

My vote for Mina would pretty much be

either sheeping Locke's case

, or for the reasons I noted in 1128 - and is probably a vague and uncertain combination of both. If she's scum, huzzah for our side, if she's town she has to go because we'll be having this debate before every single lynch otherwise.

Okay, maybe I can buy that you're willing to lynch me in spite of your D2 town read simply to remove a distraction or get information, although it's not an argument I'm a fan of. But what happened to this:

I've only ever played with Mina as town. She dithers as town. Unless she doesn't dither as scum (which I doubt) all that shows is dithering is a normal part of her meta and

is not the most optimal place to build a case and when I read Locke's case that's what I see - 'Mina didn't make solid commitments to reads'

.

It seemed that you didn't like Locke's case much at the time, but now you're listing it as one of your primary reasons for voting me.

Please explain why. I want lots and lots of words, beyond "sheeping Locke's case," which you never liked in the first place.

Write a case on me. Explain your motives and thought process behind your change of heart in longwinded detail, like I did for Percy, and why you think the towntells you'd noticed yesterday are no longer convincing. Share your opinions on the other players in the game as well. It doesn't have to be 3500 words long, but a couple of paragraphs would be nice.

Maybe it's just that I'm more prone to town reads than scum reads. But normally, when I have a gut town read on someone, it stays even after my top suspect is lynched, although I might have doubts. And if I change my mind, I can usually explain what caused the change.

Instead, you've gone from steadfastly defending me and seeming passionately against my lynch, to trying to egg people onto my wagon. Worse, you're not even making a case for my guilt, just trying to tempt them by saying, "Hey, she's a suspect, and we have aaaaaaaaall the lynches we need, so why think it through?" And part of your argument is that you and Sotty are my only two defenders, when

you and Sotty are half of the players voting for me right now

. (In all fairness, though, IAI and Kscope wouldn't be sorry to see me gone...at least, if they were still reading the game. <_<)

And you're saying that if I flip town, you'd be totally okay with being lynched yourself, even though you weren't even on my original lynch list. (In all fairness, that's not something I'd expect to hear from scum.) You have no clue who the last scum is, so hey, let other players make the decisions in endgame!

Thor, be honest. Are you doing the same thing you did in

A Clash of Kings

Mafia, in which you checked out at the end and stopped wanting to think things through, yes or no?

Look, I understand that the town's situation is really good, that I'm a decent lynch by PoE, that Locke's case almost made me cry, and that mislynching me wouldn't be the end of the world. But simply out of respect to me, can you try to give a shit right now? I know you're really hoping that this game will end with my death, so you'd rather save your breath. But I'm putting a ton of work into this game. At least do me the courtesy of making a suspect list, taking a stand on every player in the game, thinking things through critically, and writing an actual case on me. Sotty and Percy did me that courtesy. Furthermore, if you're town, then your play today is guaranteeing that the town won't win until at least Day Four, because by being so blasé, you're serving yourself up on a silver platter as a mislynch. And if the killer is someone unlikely like I am Innocent, your lynch might make the difference between a win and a loss.

Also, if you're willing to get lynched, think of it this way. Today is your last chance to get all your reads out! Why not make the effort?

Yesterday, I wouldn't have even considered lynching you. I probably trusted you as much as (or even more than) jason on gut. Now I'm almost considering moving you to my top tier, simply because of how disinterested you seem. I was really hoping my lynch list would either make the last scum confess by proving that his situation was mathematically impossible or provoke a nervous reaction along the lines of Percy's and Elmo's of "Um...haha, what are you talking about, lynch me along with all my suspects? Aren't you being a bit

rash

?" but now I deeply regret ever mentioning the word "speedlynch." I'm actually starting to agree with this from Locke:

Even if we do lynch those 5 candidates first, we should do it properly, hearing from everyone and seeing where and how they decide to place their votes. The large majority of accusations here are going to be town on town, so it's not going to be hard for the last scum to make people look bad for pushing for a townie lynch. If there was some heavy bussing going on and one of the 'town' players does turn out to be scum, they've got a breathing period of 4 or 5 easy lynches before anyone even starts to think they're scum. Let's not forget that we have people playing who can bus both their partners D1 and D2 and still win games as scum. That's why we should make them work hard and not end up on D5 or D6 saying 'hey, we haven't got anything out of Sotty for a while' or 'has anyone seen IAI?'.

And hell, even

this

from Percy (which in hindsight, is a point in his favour, since at least he's consistent on "speedlynches = bad"):

I don't think we should be callous with our lynches at all, and this idea that we have mislynches to spare is a terribad attitude to encourage. If you weaken the conviction and reasoning required to join a wagon and allow for the "well I wasn't sure they weren't scum" defence for any mislynch the town's job becomes much, much harder.

Because people are getting a bit too complacent. Kaleidoscope and IAI have both posted once today, just to throw a mindless vote on Percy.

[Mina]

All right, Thor, I'm asking again. I swear, if I can get

Faraday

to make a wall post, I can certainly wrangle one from you.

Seriously, it doesn't have to be a Mina-length (or even a Sotty-length or Red-length or Percy-length) case. Just two paragraphs would be fine. I'd just like to hear your thought process more. Your stance on me and autopilot today was my only issue with your play, and I just think it would be informative if you explained your thought process so as to help both me and other people get a read on you.

Just a point about the assembly line argument--sure, I have 6 potential suspects, but one of our six lynches will be wasted on me. And considering that every player on my bottom tier has been voted for today, I'm not confident everyone will stick to the plan once the stronger players are dead. But fair enough. I felt the same way yesterday, and I certainly understand the temptation not to over-WIFOM everything. Maybe I'm just a bit self-absorbed because it's my own life on the line and this is my last chance to contribute.

BRB.

[Mina]

-She's town?
-As town: WHAT THE FUCK is wrong with her. Why is she bothering with all this when her lynch is inevitable and this game is in the bag. Her endless clutter of words are harming this town 10X more than any good they could bring. She's going to die. She should accept it. Maybe have a few CHOICE words and let it happen. Goddamn.

Oh, fuck off.

I'm probably going to get about three hours of sleep tonight, just so I can make it easier for you all to lynch me as soon as possible.

I'm putting pressure on Thor right now. I'm putting pressure on Percy. No one else is mentioning the things I'm noticing about their shift in stances on me, or about Percy's shift on Sotty and comments that didn't sit right. Even if town is very likely to win, that doesn't mean I should be overconfident and stop playing toward my win condition. After my death, maybe the answers they give to my questions will be informative. No one has pressured Nul to explain the contradiction in his stance on Percy (or his dropping of Sotty when his case didn't attract steam), or noticed Elmo's horrible post tossing suspicion onto the "confirmed" players without elaborating, or deconstructed his defence to my original case...or on the flipside, noticed that Elmo replacing out might be a towntell simply because he'd have to be despicable as scum to leave his replacement in an impossible situation. I think I'm the only person in the game who remembers that Kscope and IAI are still playing.

But of course, you don't notice, because you haven't actually

read

a single post I've written. You never explained why you disliked my D2 Elmo case. You never explained your problem with my Percy post. You brush aside or ignore half the questions I ask you.

You do not know how hard it was for me to swallow my pride and suggest a plan that would almost certainly lead to a win but guaranteed my lynch in the first place. Not getting lynched as town is probably the only thing I do right at Mafia, and letting yourself be mislynched is one of the most antitown thing you can do. (Oh, and I don't give a fuck if you accuse me of appealing to emotion right now. What are you going to do, lynch me?)

Seriously, what's the most protown thing to do in this situation, self-vote? Stop posting altogether, just so everyone can feel warm and fuzzy about lynching me? Ask everyone to vote me off as quickly and with as little discussion as possible, just to prove to everyone that I'm sooooooo self-sacrificing? (Meanwhile, only scum would waste all this effort when I'd be guaranteed a loss even if I stall my lynch for a phase or two.) I don't know who the last scum is. Rather than trying to unload votes onto someone else who might be innocent or writing long posts in my defence, I'm just pointing out a bunch of stuff I've noticed and trying to get as many of my thoughts out. Just leave me alone and ignoring my spamming if you don't like it. And then maybe read my posts during Phase Two.

I've pretty much accepted that I'm going to be lynched, but if people miraculously notice that I'm town,

fantastic

! (The closest I ever came to being mislynched before, I somehow talked my way out of being counterclaimed as doctor in a no-flip game simply by scumhunting my ass off

well, that, and being so crazy no one could believe I was a killer

.). But don't you dare bash me for being one of the only players who are trying anymore. I'm not going to roll over and die just to appease the lazy players with short attention spans.

Also, it's hilarious that you're saying me using lots of words and posting lots is a

scumtell

, especially since you've seen me play before. It would be a scumtell if I was posting

one-liners

.

Ugh. Now I'm pissed off.

[Mina]

Okay, guys, I'm really sorry, but I have to run to work. My post is almost done, but I'm just slow. I'm honestly not stalling; I stayed up until 5 AM before dozing off. I'll try to finish it by Saturday or Sunday night.

There isn't much activity, anyway, so it's not like there's an urgent rush. And I also think it'd be informative to wait until see Percy's reaction (note to Percy: this means that if you want me lynched, you'd better get back in the thread as quickly as possible). If he's scum, right now it's in his best interest to shut up and lurk until everyone finally gets impatient and lynches me, so he won't have to take a stand on my most recent posts. I'd also like Thor to give me that wall post he promised.

Just one quick point:
[quote="Sotty7"']I personally still think Percy is town. His paranoia surrounding me feels like something a townie would do. I think as scum Percy would be happy I'm not all on his case, but he keeps bringing up his worries in such a way that makes me think he is really a paranoid townie worried about me.[/quote]
I don't know. I know I've actually done that in a game off-site as scum--faked paranoia and wariness of another player who was known for being a scary scum player, simply to mimic how I interact with him as town. He could be trying to subtly discredit you.

Do you at least agree that this needs an answer:

But speaking of which, what happened to this:

I think Sotty is prob town after the flip. Unless it gets to LyLo and things are very confusing, I won't be making my promised case against her.

Of course they all have a chance of being scum. The burden of proof rests with you, not me. I think they have less of a chance of being scum than other players; a scum continuum from least to most likely would look like <jason, Benmage, Locke, Sotty, Thor, IAI, Furcolow

So now Sotty is your second suspect if I flip town? What happened to Thor, IAI, and Furcolow? Or hell, Kaleidoscope or Nul?

Because I'm personally unconvinced by his "One of Mina or Sotty absolutely has to be scum because of Baby Spice's weird Lrdwhyt vote" argument. After I flip, it sets him up to push you as a lynch after.

[Mina]

Okay, I don't care anymore. Attack me for being wishy-washy, attack me for defending or ignoring flipped scum, attack me for being the most likely suspect, attack me because in line #4 of post #52, I contradicted line #17 of post #26.

But don't attack me for being desperate to stay alive.

I'm not even fighting my lynch, partly because of all the people guilting me into being "selfless" and sitting down and shutting up. I'm not even voting for the leading counterwagon despite having set myself up perfectly to do so, because I still haven't finished my ISO reads, and because at this point, my vote wouldn't do anything useful. (Yeah, Kaleidoscope and IAI have been

so much

more helpful than I have today because they voted.) I was the one who suggested we lynch all the players in the suspect pool indiscriminately in the first place. When I called Percy and Elmo (although he replaced out before I could really grill him) on being unwilling to sacrifice themselves and subtly trying to discredit the plan, no one gave a damn, but now people are using the same argument on me. I've deliberately avoided defending myself. I'm about as helpful as you can expect me to be in abetting a guaranteed mislynch, particularly considering this goes against my very philosophy of Mafia. (In my book, the best way to stop yourself from being a distraction is to be so obvtown that no one wants to lynch you, not to let yourself be lynched.)

Look, I've already resigned myself to being the lynched player, even though it's so frustrating that everyone is missing or ignoring all the signs that I'm town. All I want is to get out my last reads and analysis. You don't think it matters, because you think I'm scum. But I know that the game will last longer. It's important for me to get an answer from Percy to my questions, or to get Thor to explain himself. Put it this way: if the game doesn't end with my lynch, wouldn't you be happy to have known whether Percy would have stood his ground in a townish way, tried to distance himself from a mislynch or smear me, or done a 180? He's been posting in the SAIII thread, so he definitely has seen my most recent posts on him; he's just not answering them. He's the one arguing that we should scumhunt the good old-fashioned way, so I'd like to see some scumhunting from him.

I'm already late for the Christmas party now, so I won't write a huge response to Thor (some parts of his wallpost looked townish, and others made me want to dismember him, particularly because of the snide tone and his refusal to acknowledge that if you don't show your thought process in the thread, people who aren't mind-readers are going to assume that saying X looks town and Y looks scum means that X looks town, not that X is

only

townish-looking compared to Y, so stop throwing around the word "misrepping"), but I'll just comment:

This is really just starting to look more like scum angling of 'don't lynch me juuust yet' and I am not getting happy-day town vibes from it. Your arguement is that we shouldn't lynch you because we might win a day earlier? Big whoop.

Way to completely miss my point. You'd be the mislynch, genius. By coasting and becoming all, "Hey, guys, let's just lynch whoever, dudes," and being loose with his reads and flip-flopping on me without explanation (and I don't care if I was really your second or third suspect all along, because that didn't show through in the thread when you never really attacked me), Thor was giving the last scum more cover if he was town. What I mean is that even if you want me lynched, try to justify yourself.

The least I can do right now is try to draw as much information as possible from my lynch, by asking questions, provoking reactions, and trying to get the people voting for me to take a stand. Obviously, I know that at least one of Percy and Thor is being sincere, but why not try to figure out

which one

, if not both? I still haven't checked Baby Spice's past games to see if she likes listing scumbuddies as town reads. I'm not going to stop scumhunting until the moment the hammer is cast. And if I make my lynch more difficult, or try to pressure the lurkers, it makes the last scum's job harder. And besides, I will feel much better about myself if I can contribute something positive to this game.

I blew up at you last night because it was really frustrating that I was dying to go to sleep, but instead I was feeling pressured to get my thoughts out as quickly as possible simply to oblige all the people who want me dead ASAP, and then you had the gall to accuse me of flailing to stay alive.

Honestly, I get that from your POV, my last reads really don't matter because you're convinced I'm scum (and for the record, Benmage is so so so so so town, and please stop suspecting him, jason and possibly Sotty), and I do appreciate the kind words and sympathy (even if it's misplaced). But even if you don't believe me...just please, give me the time to write that last post. Consider it a favour. If you think I'm scum, the game will end anyway within a few days, so it's not like the wait will change anything. It's not like the game is bustling with activity, anyway.

Mina, you're better than this. I'm sorry you got the wrong role PM this game. And I'm sorry your partners we're god awful. But thats still no excuse. You should've bussed em to high hell...Lesson learned. (And buddy benmage....It’s a flawless scum strategy, ask SpyreX)

You know, I'm just curious. What do you think my takeaway from this game should be if I'm

town

? Never play Mafia again for being this bad?

[Mina]

GODDAMN IT, ZACH!

I TOLD YOU NOT TO POST THE GRAVEYARD QT!

*sobs*

*crawls under a rock*

So anyway, good game, town! Thanks to Zach for modding. I do think the set-up was very town-biased, because scum would have needed a sheer number of incompetent players in the game in order to have a hope of surviving by PoE.

Thor was definitely the scum MVP (and I am never trusting him again), but got screwed over by PoE. The Dry-Fit flip resulted in too many confirmed townies to be taken care of by nightkills.

Although this was a dysfunctional town at times, there was a lot of very strong town play. I won't name everyone, but special credit goes to Sotty and Locke, who both played excellent games. Quite a few of the players looked obvtown throughout (although some of that was by virtue of the flips).

IAI, in your defence, I also thought Equinox had a point about Furcolow. It's just how blase everyone (not so much you) was in jumping on Furcolow's wagon.

Oso, it should have been obvious why you were killed. Not for your reads before replacing out, but because you were the first vote on Dry-Fit, and therefore almost guaranteed not to be scum.

Reflecting on my performance this game, I'm very unsatisfied with it. I don't think I was right about anything except by coincidence, made myself look horribly scummy by white-knighting too much, and added little positive and coasted while scum were being wagoned. In retrospect, although I threw a fit over it in the graveyard QT, the town was better off for not having heard my last reads. But hey, a win is a win.

Oh, and Benmage? Here's your new avatar.

(Percy, I revoked my bet. IT DOESN'T COUNT!)