Zachtown in the mountains (Game over TOWN WINS!)

[Elmo]

VOTE: I Am Innocent

[Elmo]

I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial

scummy plan

. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Cause it's page 2. I don't over react to

poor play

early in the game. More often than not these players turn up townie. But I'll watch him...

Why do you switch from saying it's scummy to saying it's bad play? If you think he's mafia, then it's scummy; if he's town, then it's bad play. What changed? How can it possibly be scummy if players doing that usually town out to be town?

[Elmo]

To not use every possible lynch helps scum, so I used the words "scummy plan". Does that mean a townie who plays much more like a newbie who doesn't know any better could suggest it? Absolutely not.

Because it's opposite day, I'm going to interpret the middle sentence exactly counter to how it's stated, which then makes sense. It's pretty odd to refer to a plan in the abstract as "scummy", though; I imagine "pro-scum" is the intention.

So my first move was to make sure town understood that every lynch should be used, it is in our best interest. Next was to see if Benmage is a poor playing townie or opportunistic scum. So far

his play falls under the poor playing townie category

.

Okay. Why do you think that?

[Elmo]

To not use every possible lynch helps scum, so I used the words "scummy plan".

I think IAI mis-spoke. I think he mixed up "scummy" and "anti-town", which happens often enough - not least because a decent number of people believe they are synonymous. What he meant by "scummy plan" was "anti-town plan".

That said...D1 should only have 1 lynch.

Not 100% on the mechanics of this double lynch

, but I guess we can no lynch for one of the lynches and than perform a standard lynch.

That is, if we only see both reveals at the end of the day, it might be better to only lynch one person on Day 1, which seems a reasonable idea to me.

OHHHHHH right we see the flip instantaneously. F what I said. We'll utilize both lynches.

But that isn't the case here; forget it.

Ran the numbers.

{...}

Let's just say passes, especially early in the game, are going to benefit scum.

I already nix'd that plan. But thanks for the IIoA....looks like the 7 year old was right.

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it,

after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face

. Any other scummy plans you think we should incorporate?

In particular #43 is wrong, because Benmage withdrew his plan before IAI commented on it. However, if IAI simply didn't see post #13, in which case the exchange makes sense; IAI believes Benmage only withdrew it after it was pointed out to be wrong, Benmage believes IAI was commenting on something irrelevant since that plan would never be employed. I don't see a whole lot here.

---

I do not like #57 at all. UNVOTE: I Am Innocent; VOTE: Oso

[Elmo]

By a long distance, the most likely reason that Red believed IAI didn't say Benmage's plan was scummy is because he simply missed the post where IAI said that. There is almost zero probability that Red would successfully get IAI lynched on that basis, because IAI could simply point to the post in question; so it's completely unrealistic for Red to act like that as scum, and this is a very thin basis for suspicion. It's clearly 99% null.

Since I'm not going to assume that RedCoyote is either drunk, high or has some sort of medical disorder that causes him to read posts out of order, then that must have been a deliberate attempt to cast an unfounded suspicion using a blatant falsehood.

Which means that Percy also get the hairy eyeball as well. Although, since he(Percy) never clarified why he made that post, I'm going to go (for the moment) with the thought that RedCoyote might have interpreted it so it fit his own nefarious agenda.

This is an

incredibly

grandiose way of making an accusation. People miss or forget posts all the time; there is absolutely no reason for you to to push this with such vigour. You are trying to sound impressive to get people to agree with you, yet there's no attempt to question whether you're actually right, or to gain more information, considering the extremely weak evidence thus far. You pre-emptively talk about things like a "medical disorder" as if it's totally unrealistic that someone missed a single sentence in a game, anticipating Red's pretty obvious defence of "hay I missed it".

So you are trying to get people to suspect Red, trying to make his defence look bad before he's given it, yet have almost zero reason to genuinely suspect him and aren't trying to clarify what happened or figure out his alignment. I'd say that looks pretty bad from where I'm sitting.

[Elmo]

he is pushing figures which distract from scum hunting

No; at the time he posted the statistics, it was in response to someone he thought was proposing not using every lynch. It is important that we use all our lynches - IAI was mistaken, but the intent in posting that is clearly pro-town. Since he's learned that, he's stopped doing it.

refusing to vote something he finds scummy because it is only 2nd page

By his definition of scummy, this is perfectly understandable. I agree with him that it's more like Benmage was a townie acting anti-town (albeit for a far shorter period than he thought) rather than mafia; don't you think it's a bad idea for him to attack someone he's said will likely turn out to be town? He said Benmage's plan was scummy (anti-town), not that he suspected Benmage or found him scummy.

He has posted at least 4 times out of ten posts and most seem almost gloating that the odds favor scum... almost like a scum hidden gloat post after hitting a cop or doc in the night

Quote something resembling gloating? I don't see this at all.

[Elmo]

Very anti-town behavior here. If you have nothing to hide, you would supply this information willingly.

I don't think there's any particularly good reason he should have to do research for you if he doesn't have the information handy; I and many other people don't keep track of this kind of thing.

[Elmo]

But I'm not discounting the possibility of scum Red screwing with my mind.

I, on the other hand, eat WIFOM for breakfast.

[Elmo]

This is why I hate this situation; the degree of yelling at each other and just plain not listening means that pretty soon, people will get the idea that exactly one of Benmage or IAI must be scum into their heads. They're both pretty obviously mistaken, and right now I think they're both town.

this is why we can't have nice things kids

[Elmo]

you seem very sure they are town and only making mistakes... any reason?

I'm not sure they're town; I think Benmage is town, and I lean towards thinking IAI is also town. I strongly believe that they would act roughly this way if they were town, i.e. that their play is not scummy.

So what if people begin to think they are scum? if they tink their play is scummy its justified.

You can't just say "oh, I find your play scummy" and say that's sufficient. You need to give a reason

why

their play is scummy, and thus far the reasons stated are pretty terrible.

the bolded makes me VERY warey... its almost like you know something.

I'm not sure why. The first part should be obvious - if two people argue violently with each other, people tend to believe one of them

must

be right, and therefore exactly one of them is scum. The reason I dislike this false dichotomy is pretty simple: most people in the game are town, and townies tend to be more aggressive than scum. Unless there's an actual, good reason to suspect one of them, this is likely a fight between two townies which will end badly.

I think it's extremely obvious that IAI was mistaken about if/when Benmage retracted his plan. It's possible for him to be mafia and mistaken, but being mistaken is still null. I also think it's fairly obvious that Benmage isn't really taking IAI's defence on board, which fits with my impression of Ben from the last time we played together.

Quote something resembling gloating? I don't see this at all.

Also, this, still.

I also approve of Nikanor votes.

[Elmo]

Hes been very quick to defend people who look scummy,

I've laid out precisely why IAI

doesn't

look scummy. If you think I'm wrong, critique what I said; otherwise you're just saying I've acted quickly, which is pro-town if anything.

seems to know something we don't add to that his post in #81..

Be specific? What conclusion of mine doesn't follow from what's in-thread?

it looks like he is seriously buddying IAI

So you think IAI is town? Why wouldn't I just agree vocally with Benmage and try to push IAI's lynch? I'm pretty sure this wagon would go places if pushed sufficiently, because there's no-one else defending him. Why should I buddy with IAI when I can just get him lynched?

[Elmo]

In other news, I don't have much to bring to the plate offensively at the moment. Elmo, Percy, Sotty, Oso... all making valid points and good posts.

..you think Oso's #57 falls under that? Because his posting is that plus a defence of that.

[Elmo]

My point against it being (partially) that it wasn't valid?

???

[Elmo]

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

Elmo,

where the hell

did you get the idea that I am Innocent had missed that post in the first place? Again, why are you making excuses for him instead of reading the thread?

I'm not sure what you're objecting to ("again"?) - reread my #69? My view is that IAI missed post #13, not post #9. I don't see anything that contradicts that, and IAI saying Ben nixed it

after

he was called out directly implies that, to me. (I think it's clear by now that IAI is not terribly precise in what he says, e.g. referring to the plan as 'scummy' when he thinks people who propose it are mostly townies.)

Ben, I really do think you are townie.

As of post #70, you can REALLY BELIEVE SOMEONE IS A TOWNIE?
I'm not fucking buying this

I believed Benmage is town, perhaps even earlier than that. Do you think there's a problem with that?

[Elmo]

Mina: Ah, I see it. I missed it because I was skimming and my name wasn't there.

Attacking mongoose's #62 feels like shooting fish in a barrel...but

eww

. I'm curious as to why all those who accused IAI of IIoA said nothing about this post.

I'd have to agree with this.

I think it's extremely obvious that IAI was mistaken about if/when Benmage retracted his plan. It's possible for him to be mafia and mistaken, but being mistaken is still null. I also think it's fairly obvious that Benmage isn't really taking IAI's defence on board, which fits with my impression of Ben from the last time we played together.

This is the one area where I see jason's POV. Why are you speaking for IAI? Let IAI answer for himself if he was mistaken about the timing.

Because I think he's town and not very good at speaking. He's had ample opportunity to say either that or something that clearly explains why he said it, and he hasn't done it; in fact, he's sorta imploded instead. Also, I've been playing Phoenix Wright a lot, and I feel like defending someone

In fact, Benmage actually quoted the post in which he'd retracted the plan, and IAI misinterpreted it.

How did he misinterpret it? It's not terribly easy to follow what IAI's saying, so maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick.

[Elmo]

One last question. Elmo, would you consider yourself a gut player?

Mmhm. To whatever extent the dichotomy's valid, anyway.

[Elmo]

a) Why? x2
b) That doesn't really respond to the point - why aren't you now saying the same thing about me?

[Elmo]

There appear to be two separate points. One is that IAI said Benmade was a townie, which is fine, seeing as there are only vanilla townies and mafia in this game; that's just another way of saying he had a town read.
Another is you telling me to keep my town reads quiet, which you haven't responded to.

b) That doesn't really respond to the point - why aren't you now saying the same thing about me?

still.

[Elmo]

ok,

i see above he is lying

.... Im happy with my vote. A claim like that could have outted a real cop.

Shouldn't you already know he was lying? What did you see?

[Elmo]

Well, he admitted to lying... thats what I meant by I see he is lying.

That's a pretty weird way of putting it. Why did you say that instead of "he even admits to lying" or something?

[Elmo]

ok, i see above he is lying.... Im happy with my vote.

To me, this still looks a lot like you've just learned he's lying.
If you were town, you'd already know full well he's lying and have no particular reason to reference that.
If you were scum, this would be the earliest you could know he was lying, and it makes sense to think something exactly like that - okay, now I see he's lying. Phew!

Do you see what I'm saying?

[Elmo]

So basically, I don't like that you were so quick to defend him

to the point that you gave false reasons for his behaviour

.

(blink) I gave reasons I thought were true for his behaviour. Rereading, it's possible he saw the post and disregarded it, or saw it and still thought it important because people were saying the opposite, or whatever - it's hard to know exactly what he means in some cases. But the broad point remains the same to me; he had this specific, pro-town belief as a motivation to say what he did. The simplest explanation, given that and what he said, was that he missed the post, but it hardly hangs on that.

Yes, it's the irritating and overused "you're acting as though you know his alignment" tell; I understand the temptation to rush in to help a floundering townie. But where did your town read on him come from? Was it

solely

because you'd thought he'd missed Benmage's post?

I think you have it somewhat backwards. I didn't defend him strictly because I had a town read on him; he's a priori likely to be town and he looks like he'd get himself into hot water regardless of alignment. The fact I thought he missed Benmage's post didn't directly contribute to my town read of him at all. (I remain bemused by the idea that acting as if I know someone's alignment is a

bad thing

. The only way not to fulfil that criteria is to never take a stance on anything.)

My town read came largely from gut, part of which I now realise is that I believe this:

Being a number cruncher, I am very certain that it is 61/39 in favor of scum:
1) I ran every scenario with every corresponding probability
2) I created a setup and ran 40,000 trials and the numbers converged to 61/39

As for the other setup (one lynch per day), I just created the setup and ran 40,000 trials. Got to lazy to run every possible scenario and corresponding probability.

I think he did actually run the simulation. Going into enough detail to e.g. decide how many trials to run seems more effort than I'd expect from scum trying to fob people off in this situation. I don't think many scum would attempt that to start out with, and I don't think they'd typically "do their homework" when they did.

Honestly, this looks like a waste of time to me. Do you even think this is suspicious?

Can people tell me if this is normal with RedCoyote?

The one game I played with him was a mini where he relentlessly tunnelled on me from Day 1 for no particularly good reason. Red bothers me, and this is part of it.

Red, why are you being scum?

...and the technical term(I think) for what I used on RC was False Dilemma, basically giving a range of reasons that either point to the player being incompetent or scum: All bad, none good. My answer to that is that I generally don't give a player the acceptable answer in the post I vote them for. Which was all right as Red showed he was perfectly able to get it on his own.

That isn't what I said, though. I said that you had identified the most reasonable explanation (Red missed the post) and

pre-emptively moved to discredit it

by making that response seem unreasonable. That's scummy.

I'll argue with the "trying to sound impressive...." part though. See above.

So you

coincidentally

have a language party that also happens to have a tactical effect that would benefit you if you were scum, but it's just you having some quality time with a thesaurus? C'mon.

Having said that, my magic eight-ball tells me to UNVOTE: Oso. So there!
VOTE: imkingdavid

[Elmo]

Oh, cool. UNVOTE: imkingdavid, VOTE: RedCoyote
I need to think more about jason because that is pretty much a head exploder right now.

[Elmo]

I'm pretty sure I'm supposed to post. We probably need to kill someone soon? I think I'm going with Sotty's read on Jason, plus Red + Dry-fit voting for him. I think most people should move to one of the major reasonably soon.

I think Dry-fit asked about Red. I did explain, but it's easy to miss; I independently thought similarly to Mina, but couldn't really pin down what was bugging me, still can't; but when I read Red's posts, the voice in my head is that of a creepy old guy.

He's just so totally unoffensive and middle-of-the-road though. Literally almost everyone who's been posting regularly has found something to take issue with or press or do something somehow. I'm a little biased because Red (arguably) blindly tunnelled on me, but from my point of view, what are the odds this is the same guy who manages to see everyone's side of everything vs. he's just scum lying low?

[Elmo]

Yeah, sorry, it's not ultra-clear, but that meant "I'm going to go with Sotty's read on Jason and thus don't want to lynch him right now". I currently want to lynch Red and Dry-fit, tho I'm going to reread the latter soonish.

As someone who knows Jason on a personal level, this V/LA is real. He's going to watch the 49ers play in London.

I've been saying for awhile now that I think he is town. He has a tendency to get into trouble like this because he tends to play on emotions and will just knee jerk to everything. As scum he is much more composed.

This fits for me, and obv she knows him better than me. I'm not sure about her alignment, but it's enough to let him live, at least a bit longer.

[Elmo]

Unofficial Vote Count

Dry-fit (6) <- Oso, Locke Lamora, Benmage, KaleiÐoscøpe, Sotty7, Furcolow
Furcolow (3) <- JasonT1981, I Am Innocent, RedCoyote
Jasont1981 (2) <- Nikanor, Dry-fit
Redcoyote (2) <- Mina, Elmo
Benmage <- Percy

Not Voting: Baby Spice, Lrdwhyt
With 16 alive, it's 9 to lynch.

---

Muh. On reflection, I don't really buy into jason's 'slip', though I go back and forth; but it follows that I dislike the way Dry-fit jumped on it. Also, both Red and Dry-fit were voting for jason.. maybe it's too early to do anything associative. I wish we had more than seven posts from him, but I'm more inclined to kill him given that.

I think we kinda need to kill someone soon. VOTE: Dry-fit

[Elmo]

Why would you fake V/LA specifically for the purposes of (active) lurking and then not do that?

[Elmo]

VOTE: RedCoyote

[Elmo]

Red. Again, seriously - you're playing different; why?

Unvote; vote: Furcolow

The jason wagon has become too controversial to continue. If you aren't convinced by now, you probably won't be. This doesn't change the fact that an alternative to the Dry-fit wagon, regardless how you feel about Dry-fit, is beneficial to the long-term game. Furcolow is a great alternative. He's arguably the most opportunistic player here (arguably because he's competing with Benmage for the title), is throwing up senseless, unexplained scum lists and positions that contradict one another, and is, in general, manufacturing activity to look as though he's paying closer attention than he actually is (by this I mean he's missing obvious things and shrugging them off, pretending like it's no big deal).

In particular this needs an explanation because all of those are pretty horrible reasons.

I think we should be lynching someone off the wagon, but I'm not sure precisely how we narrowed it down to these two. Like, no-one has brought up Mina or Nikanor yet, and I don't know why. But right now, I'm not really motivated to find out when no-one's looking to change my mind, either.

[Elmo]

I already disliked mongoose - I'm not sure what to make of Baby Spice, but it hasn't improved my view of that slot. Red still seems worse to me, broadly for the reasons already stated, which is the point.

This is not even true. Sotty mentioned her case against Nikanor at the top of this very page... Sure it doesn't mention his potential connections to Dry-fit, but there's a little meat to this case.

What I said was that no-one has proposed lynching either of them for being off the wagon. In additition to that, as far as I've seen, actually no-one's seriously proposed lynching either of them; Sotty's not even voting Nikanor right now.

Also, that attitude is so anti-town it hurts my brain.

Okay, thanks for the information?

[Elmo]

Yeah, well, I'm fighting for my life here, and you cbf looking at alternatives - you're just going to complain that no-one else is looking!

You realise that I'm actually voting for the person with the most votes who isn't you, right? I wasn't complaining, I meant exactly what I said; Red isn't (wasn't) defending himself, and no-one else is arguing that person X looks worse than Red, so my vote stays.

I don't know, Elmo. Do you mean different in the course of this game or different from Hoopla's game?

Different from Hoopla's game.

I'm sorry they're not as well thought out as "he sounds like an old man".

You cannot seriously be implying that I haven't clearly laid out why I'm voting you or that I don't have good reasons to suspect you.

Is there anything about Fur that strikes you as particularly town?

No.

It's hard for me to explain why exactly those things are scummy if we have such a fundamental difference of opinion.

I don't see why at all. Your reasoning is completely independent from my opinions, which you

still haven't given

. You have just stated "Fur did X" and implied it's scummy without explaining why. Very probably we have different premises, which is best dealt with by stating yours.

I think we should be lynching someone off the wagon, but I'm not sure precisely how we narrowed it down to these two. Like, no-one has brought up Mina or Nikanor yet, and I don't know why.

These are almost as bad as Baby's suggestions. They seem completely arbitrary in light of Dry-fit's flip given that both of them were virtually removed from the discussion. Perhaps this is exactly why they speak to you, but I couldn't disagree more.

I didn't propose lynching them, I meant exactly what I said - I don't know why all the votes are on you and Percy in particular.

Um...maybe I shouldn't tempt fate, but in that case, why

aren't

you proposing a lynch of me or Nikanor?

Because I don't think you're a better lynch than who I'm voting for.

What exactly is your point here? Are you saying, "Guys, there are nice juicy mislynch targets that you can make cases on, if you want, at which point I might jump on the wagon?" Are you saying we're better lynches than Red/Percy/LrdWhyt/Baby Spice? Are you saying someone should propose our lynch

for no other reason

than because we're off the wagon?

My point is precisely what I said. I did not say any of the above things.

This is not complicated.

I know your vote is on RC, but are you opposed to a Percy lynch? Right now, is there anyone you suspect who is on the Dry-Fit wagon?

I'm largely indifferent beyond voting someone who wasn't on the wagon (out of principle), the only reason I'm voting Red is because of my earlier suspicions.

Why did you single out me and Nikanor, and not, say, LrdWhyt?

I can't remember the exact timing, but I think he was absent for most of the wagon.

[Elmo]

One's a small, closed, mostly hand-picked game with quite a few power roles, and the other is a large, mountainous, mostly open sign ups game. I don't think I'm being different. I think the environments are probably as different as two games could be.

One in which you were a vanilla townie, attacked a bunch of people and then locked onto me for the rest of the game, the other in which you vaguely mumbled you kinda sorta didn't like some people, made a few ingratiating comments, and basically sat back waiting for a wagon to be provided. None of that is explained by a difference in setup, not least because you couldn't have known how many power roles were in the first game. The only differences are that you don't have to worry about accidentally running up a power role, which should make you

more

aggressive, or the number of people in the game, which should make it easier to attack someone because you have more potential targets.

I don't see why at all. Your reasoning is completely independent from my opinions, which you still haven't given. You have just stated "Fur did X" and implied it's scummy without explaining why. Very probably we have different premises, which is best dealt with by stating yours.

I dispute that. He's being far too emotional, contrived, and flighty.

Furcolow is absolutely all over the place. Not just in the above post, but throughout this entire game. He's on full panic mode now and letting every emotion go that he can. He's a complete loose cannon. If you haven't paid as much attention to his posts throughout this game, you owe it to yourself to check him out in isolation. If he's town, he's too weak-willed and emotional. Every time I've looked the other way when someone has tried to appease everyone he could, I've regretted it. In general I've found that scum are more likely to placate in a manner similar to Fur.

When someone is as unprincipled as Fur is, I've found it to be a potential indicator of scum. I'm not just implying here, and I backed my rhetoric up with a vote.

Are you going to make any attempt to answer my question? Let's make a list of things you've actually said here.

# Fur is "emotional"
# Fur is "contrived"
# Fur is "flighty"
# Fur is "all over the place" through the game
# Fur is "on full panic mode"
# Fur is "a loose cannon"
# If Fur is town, he's "too weak-will and emotional"
# Fur is unprincipled, which is a potential indicator of scum
---
# Scum are more likely to placate people in the way Fur did

The first problem is what I said; how does being "a loose cannon" make him suspicious? I have no idea. Another related problem is: What does "a loose cannon" even mean? I have no idea. Again, "Furc is X, so Furc is scum" without any explanation why X makes him more likely to be scum. I can say Furc is wearing a hat, so Furc is scum, or Furc is "twitchy" (or some other nigh-meaningless word), so Furc is scum, and anyone reading has no way to call me on my complete bullshit unless I'm forced to outline some actual reasoning, which is what you're abjectly failing to do right now. The last item is about the only one that doesn't fit this pattern, and while it's acceptable it's also pretty difficult to falsify (or support); I think I see the logic behind it, but I don't reeeally buy into it, and without examples it's not really decidable one way or the other.

What does being weak-willed have to do with anything? I mean, that's a personal quality, it's not like people have a personality transplant based on alignment; it's like saying he's scum because he's tall, or something, it's approaching bizarre. In the absence of any reasoning, and with the exception of being contrived - which you're presented no evidence for that I've seen - I'd say the precise opposite, that all of the list qualities are null and

your case sucks

. This case being the basis for the "alternative wagon" to Dry-Fit that you've explicitly argued for.

I'm booooored, I lost interest a while ago. I might flake, we'll see.

[Elmo]

Fun fact, deadline is in ~48 hours.

[Elmo]

Because I am starting to find it really annoying that you're always 100% confident in every single one of your opinions, in every game, even when the arguments and logic you're using to support your opinions aren't always very good. I don't mean to be harsh, but learn to rein your ego in a bit more. </rant>

Ahaha, good luck with that.

If your hesitation on my case against Fur is simply because I didn't lay out quotes for you, then that's just a breakdown in communication. One needs only look at Fur's voting record, contradicting scumlists, and petulant behavior.

How do you get that from what I said? I'm not hesitating, I'm saying

your case sucks

, and you're not even trying to argue with me. If you were town, your immediate reaction would be, no, my case is good, Fur is scum and this is why. Even in this response, you're doing continuing to do precisely the same thing - HOW IS BEING PETULANT SUSPICIOUS? Seriously, what twisted chain of logic leads to that conclusion? You're just spewing buzzwords and praying.

I'd probably go as far as to say that you'd be the only player here that hasn't picked up on it (if someone else in the game has said they value Fur's play and/or they have trouble understanding why someone would be put off by his play, then I'll stand corrected).

No, Red, you don't get to say everyone's fine with your stance because no-one's disagreed with it yet. If everyone's singing to your tune, why isn't there this giant wagon of doom on Fur right now? Hint: because people aren't convinced by you. If it's so obvious, why can't you just spit it out?

Either that or you're just deliberately giving me a hard time about it. It could very well be the latter though, because I do not think our playstyles or personalities mesh together very well at all.

lol, do not try to write this off as playstyle. This is not about playstyle; this is not personal. This is about you being unable to explain the stated suspicion of Fur that you used to push a counter-Dry-fit wagon.

[Elmo]

ahhahahahhahrthathahaha

[Elmo]

Are you going to take Mina up on her avatar bet?

Enquiring minds want to know.

[Elmo]

Last week, it also felt as though you were enjoying the me vs. Benmage friction for its entertainment value rather than trying to be constructive.

Damn straight.

[Elmo]

i just skimmed havingfitz to see who he was suspicious of (possibly why he died?)

He replaced Oso, who was quite strongly on the Dry-fit wagon; I believe that's why he was killed.

So if I can boil the Percy case down, perhaps oversimplifying it, it looks like

vote: RedCoyote

Scumreads

RedCoyote
Sotty7
Dry-fit
imkingdavid

As for Dry-Fit, I don't like his votes on Oso or on Jason, but I like my wagons better.

and subsequently voting Benmage and Fur. Don't really feel like he's presented a thorough defence yet.

Percy, maybe I missed it, but can you elaborate on:
# Why you originally put Dry-fit on the scum list
# Why you preferred the other wagons (Red, Benmage, Furcolow, maybe others I missed) to Dry
# The interaction between your read of Benmage and Dry's wagon (and timing)
# Why specifically you say you're "nowhere near sold on the Dry-fit case" in #389?

I'm really struggling with rereading benmage's posts (and there's quite a few by this point); if someone who agrees with him wants to restate the case, that would be pretty cool. I also don't understand why Percy didn't vote Red yesterday if he's scum; he'd only has one buddy to swing the wagon, so it seems rather risky.. I think it's extremely dubious as town, but I've seen far more town do it than scum.

I'm also kinda interested in lrdwhyt.. I do agree with Mina a bit, some of his posts seem too close to IIoA for comfort. Definitely, I would like to see more stated reasoning rather than just conclusions. I'm not sure whether to push this by itself, or file it under "wait and see".

"Mina...f-for me...make Benmage's avatar...Barney/Baby Bop X-rated fanart...AAAAAAAAAAAH DEAR GOD MY RIB CAGE!"

@Mod

: If I'm lynched please make these my actual last words plzkthx

Perfection.

[Elmo]

Your reasoning is bizarre and what makes it even worse is that you

join

the wagon myself and Mina are on. WTF?

How are you distinguishing between B.S. being scum and what Benmage thinks, i.e. a VI?

[Elmo]

It depends precisely what you mean by scummy. For example:

2. Her Benmage case, especially after the DF flip,

2. LOL This is why I have a town read on her.

HEY THOR!!!!

This is the reason why BS is both town and an easy mislynch. Noone but a huge dumbass would attack me after the DF lynch.

The point being that, if BS were scum, she would realise that she has no realistic chance of getting Benmage lynched, and wouldn't attack him; the only case in which she would do that is if she genuinely thought he was scum, where she has to

try

regardless or lose the game. As such, he doesn't think it's scummy.

Now, there may be other things that are "really" scummy, but I haven't seen them, albeit I haven't reread BS yet. (I have my own view, but it's uninteresting.)

[Elmo]

@Elmo - so attempting to lynch someone for whom there isn't a support base equates to town? I see your/Ben's logic, I just don't think it's as good as you do.

Well, it's not my logic; I don't wholly agree with it, but I do think that a lot of the reasons given to suspect BS are somewhat kneejerk-y, inthat they'd quite possibly still be true if she was town.

[Elmo]

Do you see my points on Percy though? Other then getting personally offended at Benmage (shock) his great scumtell is not liking the Dry-fit wagon. That can come from town just as much as BS's actions could (I've certainly been the town idiot caught defending scum before).

I think we actually have almost the same view of Percy; the thing is, I don't feel we've heard enough about

why

he took that stance on Dry-fit (et al). If he's able to state a clear, reasonable justification, then I don't think that alone makes for a strong case; but there's always a chance that if he's scum, he'll be unable to do so, which would definitely implicate him.

I also think there is a difference because Percy has a clear motive to stay off the wagon if he's scum, whereas Baby Spice's motive would be fairly murky to me in that specific example, although maybe there are ones I've missed.

I feel that the Percy wagon is being confirmation biased into something bigger then it really is, the case just doesn't seem either that solid or large and all the people chirping on about "we need to lynch him to get reads on other people" are not exactly selling me on how obvious scum Percy is.

I agree with this, but equally I'm (personally) not super happy about defending him from this specifically since (to me) there remains a reasonable chance he's scum. Along those lines, I should probably say that I

don't

have any confidence in BS being town, and I plan to reread her and try to get a better handle on her play within the next couple of days.

Another thing that's bothering me is that open, all-vanilla setups are, by a long way, the best kind to bus in. I don't want to start the conspiracy theories too early, but I would actually like to hear from everyone what they think about the possibility of Dry being bussed by at least one buddy.

[Elmo]

But what I find really off is that he hasn't even reacted to the fact that his one major scum read (Red Coyote) was wrong.

I'm not sure what kind of reaction one would expect. I don't base any of my reads on his alignment, so I don't need to re-evaluate any of my current reads; I still think the case is fundamentally good, so due to that and the impending deadline it's going to be difficult to distinguish between townies and scum jumping on the wagon. Beyond "oops I suck" or (in this case) "dangit Red why didn't you answer my questions", neither of which are terribly productive, I'm not sure what you're getting at.

When I ask him this: {post #653} He ignores

every single question

This is a mistake on my part; I didn't intentionally ignore it, I put it off and then forgot about it. You can see that there's a long time between iso #34 and iso #35, the response being iso #36. I was reading the game and couldn't remember the last time I posted, but I thought it'd been a while, so I made that as a prod-avoidance-post until I could get to the game tomorrow or the next day. Real life, I suck, etc. When I came back to make iso #37, I remembered where I'd read to, but forgot that I needed to respond to something before then. You could just have said, like, hay Elmo why haven't you answered my questions?

flippantly admits to enjoying the drama between me and Benmage.

Absolutely. I think it's deeply amusing, on the level of a good sitcom. I have no idea why you think that's scummy. (I can see why you'd find it

infuriating

... but not anti-town.)

who he thinks will win the avatar bet.

If it isn't obvious, I think you're likely to win the bet if Ben is town purely based on the number of townies in the game. That is, I think the prior probability of Percy being a townie is sufficiently high that it's very difficult for a good player to get the posterior probability low enough to make the bet a good move, remembering that Ben's opinion was formed on Day 1. If Ben's scum, it doesn't matter, so only good (and by good I mean hilarious) things can happen from my point of view (in the context of the bet, obviously a mislynch is bad).

-Mentions the obvious reason for why havingfitz was NK'd (he replaced someone on the DF wagon) rather dismissively

i just skimmed havingfitz to see who he was suspicious of (possibly why he died?)

He replaced Oso, who was quite strongly on the Dry-fit wagon; I believe that's why he was killed.

I think it's unfair to characterise that as dismissive. I don't see any implication that I'm necessarily right, or he should stop thinking about it; the reason I pointed out the obvious is that it's only obvious if you remember that fitz replaced Oso, which I for one didn't.

(ignoring the juicier question of why havingfitz was killed over Locke/IaI/jason/Benmage--I have suspicions on this, but I'll save them for later)

I'm not if you're implying this is scummy or not; I didn't think much about it, but I don't think it's that juicy. Iai and jason look much more lynchable than Oso in the long run; Benmage is probably generating friction with townies that looks potentially exploitable and/or they think he'll lead the town astray in the future; Locke isn't doing vast amounts. I think in retrospect it's not a terribly interesting kill.

However, there's one thing I missed, which is that if Benmage is town, he's a pretty obvious kill by most standards if Percy is scum. Leaving him alive pretty strongly points to Percy being town if Benmage is town.

asks Percy a few decent questions (although a bit redundant, since Percy had already explained his DF suspicions several times),

I don't believe he has answered those specific questions, as I said in the post.

and makes a reasonable point for why Percy would be less likely to vote RC as town (this I like, but it's not brilliant analysis and would be easy to fake as scum, particularly since he's not defending Percy with much passion--he agrees with Thor, but then he qualifies his town read with a seed of doubt).

I also don't understand why Percy didn't vote Red yesterday if he's scum; he'd only has one buddy to swing the wagon, so it seems rather risky.. I think it's extremely dubious as town, but I've seen far more town do it than scum.

I don't believe that's true. I don't know what you're referring to; I said it's extremely dubious as town, because it is, it's simply bad play. The reaction I expect includes people pointing out it makes no sense, so I think it's correct to acknowledge that before saying that it's typically more frequently from town, since the thought process that prompts that action is much closer to a townie's mindset. (I have been in at least one game where we lynched town instead of scum because the lynched townie refused to vote for the scum, believing they were town. One game on Day 1, after I pushed for the SK lynch; I was quietly

displeased

.)

I don't think I ever even

used

the words "IIoA." My case had to do with Lrdwhyt's weird backtrack on jason and I am Innocent, his lack of scumhunting, his unexplained reads, and his defence.

Hm, fair. I observed the above, and thought I remembered you saying something similar, I don't think I actually checked back (wallposts, partially) to see the whole thing. I only skimmed your case, since it was so close to deadline and I was already voting the person with the most votes.

I'm also kinda interested in lrdwhyt.. I do agree with Mina a bit, some of his posts seem too close to IIoA for comfort. Definitely, I would like to see more stated reasoning rather than just conclusions. I'm not sure whether to push this by itself, or file it under "wait and see".

And how did you leap from "IIoA" to "stated reasoning rather than just conclusions"? Information Instead of Analysis means that on the contrary, he

isn't

giving conclusions, just talking about neutral facts. Those are two completely different, unrelated charges.

Yeah, this is my bad. What I am trying to describe was the way he made statements like in #462, "Elmo seems pretty decent. / Don't have anything on Locke Lamora, strangely. / Mina is kind of scummy." and not giving much, if any detail about the reasoning behind those conclusions. That is, he was giving us information about what his suspicions were, but not showing any analysis of how he got there. I didn't read closely, but I thought that a lot of his posts were in that vein. I actually do know what IIoA means, I figured it could be applied to that but obviously it's unclear. (I also believe IIoA can apply when people give conclusions, since those aren't actually analysis, but it's tangential.)

And what the hell are you talking about in the last line? Push

what

by itself? Why the hell wouldn't you try to pressure Lrdwhyt if you suspect him?

I don't think it's a good idea to attack him on that basis alone, because it's too weak; firstly, it's just not that strong a case, maybe he's town and hasn't got his teeth into the game yet, and secondly because a weak attack tends to undermine later attacks, even if there's subsequently much stronger evidence. If he's scum, then hopefully this prompting will either get him to produce analysis which can be used in a stronger case (or gain a town read if he's town), or it'll become obvious over time that he's deliberately not doing it when asked.

However, if this by itself is too weak, then I can't really attack him for it, and he doesn't have any incentive to come up with the goods. This is (admittedly perhaps poorly done) a way of trying to find out how others think this should be handled, and what they think of that pattern (given I didn't read his posts closely, whether it exists at all). To some extent, I was thinking out loud.

Oh, and another question. What did you think of imkingdavid's play?

At the time, I thought it was somewhat sketchy, inthat he only made one sizeable post with a lot of oneliners that didn't seem to go anywhere, but when he announced V/LA and replaced out, I chalked it up to him being distracted with real life concerns. I also didn't like this much:

Anyway, just did an ISO of Benmage. His first few posts are about as obvscum as you can get. First, he complains about not being scum (yeah... right...). Then he says we should not use one of our lynches, which is a terrible idea, and then he immediately changes his mind when someone calls him on it, as if he didn't know.

I thought that was obviously a mischaracterisation, and a fairly scummy attack, but there was so much confusion surrounding it that I didn't press it further. In retrospect, I remembered I didn't like a post of his, but it's rather scummier than I remembered.

-One-liner asking Sotty how she's distinguishing between BS being scum and a VI. Fair enough, although still easy to fake and diminishes Sotty's pressure on Baby Spice. Elmo, I'm just curious. Why did you choose to ask Sotty this question?

I thought that the way she interacted with Baby Spice was odd; I'm not sure if I remembered at the time, but the combination of this looked odd to me:

My vote on jason has never been easy or weak. I've been pushing this bloody wagon uphill all the way. I've been pointing out everything that points to jasonscum since his first serious post of the day. My vote is not weak.

It's easy and weak in my eyes because I have played a bunch of games with Jason. This is how he fails as a townie, he acts before he thinks. As scum he is much more calm and controlled. I don't agree anything he has done today is obv scum at all.

I've been saying for awhile now that I think he is town. He has a tendency to get into trouble like this because he tends to play on emotions and will just knee jerk to everything. As scum he is much more composed.

Benmage is still arrogant scum, nothing changed there. Seriously 'confirmed' in this game means you're dead and flipped. Claiming otherwise is scum trying to make themselves into a white knight and lead the town to a loss.

No.

Sotty, Mina. You both seem to be having a go at each other, but are both voting the same player. It makes me think that one of you is faking the discussion/arguement, which is scummy, whilst buddying up to them, which is also scummy. Or that one of you is bussing hard and trying to use the other as cover.

Vote Lrdwhyt

This paragraph and vote do not match with each other. I can't speak with Mina but I like to engage my suspects to figure out better if they are town or scum. Ftr, right now I am starting to lean towards Mina town which is an almost 180 from my position at the start of the day.

Your reasoning is bizarre and what makes it even worse is that you

join

the wagon myself and Mina are on. WTF?

Unvote, Vote: Babyspice

I think Baby Spice's behaviour looks quite like jason's in certain respect. If you look at how she's arguing with Benmage, I think that's a least a significant contributor to what she's saying; she certianly seems the type to wear her emotions on her sleeve in a way similar to what Sotty described. I would have thought that, seeing what happened with jason, she might be slower to attack someone who displayed similar behaviour. In the quoted post, she appears to be voting BS largely for bad logic, which I believe is probably null.

-But then, defends BS by saying that

Benmage

thinks BS would know not to attack him were she scum...but then quickly backpedals by saying this is just what Benmage thinks, and she

may

have done other scummy things, although he's not sure what they are:

It depends precisely what you mean by scummy. For example:

2. Her Benmage case, especially after the DF flip,

2. LOL This is why I have a town read on her.

HEY THOR!!!!

This is the reason why BS is both town and an easy mislynch. Noone but a huge dumbass would attack me after the DF lynch.

The point being that, if BS were scum, she would realise that she has no realistic chance of getting Benmage lynched, and wouldn't attack him; the only case in which she would do that is if she genuinely thought he was scum, where she has to

try

regardless or lose the game. As such, he doesn't think it's scummy.

Now, there may be other things that are "really" scummy, but I haven't seen them, albeit I haven't reread BS yet. (

I have my own view, but it's uninteresting

.)

The bolded line in particular is horrendous. Seriously, how did no one notice this? Not "I'm going to stay silent so as not to influence people's reactions." Because his opinions are "uninteresting." Why did you even post such useless fluff? Give us your uninteresting opinions on Baby Spice,

now

.

Because that doesn't refer to my view of Baby Spice, that refers to the very general idea of "what is scummy?", which is what I start my post off by referencing; I've re-added some of the quote which was snipped, because it's easier to see in context. The specific point I am responding to was:

1. BS is doing horribly scummy things.

and this is difficult because I only see her do things like use dubious logic; the question then follows whether bad logic is scummy. I would answer no, not necessarily, but people have reasonable disagreements with my viewpoint - the problem is that this is a theory debate, and it rarely if ever goes anywhere useful, and to a large extent Thor already sees what I'm getting at. So, I don't think it's productive to state anything further. (I'm really not sure how that's consistent with me needing to reread her, anyhow.)

Also clarifies in his next post that it's not his opinion and he doesn't "wholly agree" with Benmage's logic, but that he doesn't like the reasons people are using to attack Baby Spice.

I think it's more like, to me, it's actually pretty unclear why people are attacking her, and from where I'm sitting my guess is that it's things I think are null, like the aforementioned. But it's entirely possible I'm missing something. I think Benmage is probably right, but I think it's a weak tell and he puts too much faith in it.

-And his last post starts off with okay points in response to Thor on how his town read on Percy would depend on how Percy explains his DF stance, and how he can see more of a scum motivation for Percy's behaviour than BS's (which is reasonable, albeit it could be worded more precisely, but still really obvious and a bit on the IIoA side).

It's not IIoA because I am responding to Thor specifically comparing the two:

I can see that argument. Do you see my points on Percy though? Other then getting personally offended at Benmage (shock) his great scumtell is not liking the Dry-fit wagon. That can come from town just as much as BS's actions could (I've certainly been the town idiot caught defending scum before).

and it is clearly not obviously true to him.

So...um, he agrees with Thor's read on Percy...but is unwilling to defend him, even though he's already weakly defended Percy several times in his earlier posts...because there's a

reasonable chance

he's scum.

I did not say I was unwilling to defend him. I said I was not super happy about defending him. If what I am saying was right, then my read of him is close to null; I get zero town cred if he gets lynched and flips town, and I get a lot of flak if he's scum. So, I think it's a losing proposition for me, but I don't see a better option.

And he doesn't have

any confidence

in BS being town...even though, if you've been following this case, he defended her before from Sotty's attack just a few posts by saying he thought some of the arguments against her were spurious. He needs to reread her. Um...

what

?

This is also correct. I believe the case against her appears bad. That does

not

mean I think she is town; similarly, I have a null read on her. I do not think anything I've seen her do is something she'd be significantly more likely to do as either alignment, and considering what I have just said about her case, it's easy for people to think that I believe she's town because I just defended her.

Oh, and...maybe DF was bussed. Maybe. Just maybe, one of the confirmed players might be scum. He doesn't know. He doesn't want to start conspiracy theories, of course, not too early

when there are viable mislynches on the table

...but he'd be happy if

you

all shared your conspiracy theories, so he can decide if they're worth bandwagoning.

Problem: I was on the Dry-fit wagon. If I'm scum, scum did bus, and we need to lynch at least one person on that wagon. Obviously this question concerns whether or not we should lynch people on the wagon, and I want to see what people think, but whether or not they're mislynches is exactly the question I'm posing. Thor, for example, has said he would bus; I think that's useful information.

As we lynch more people who were off the wagon, like we're probably going to (at the time that was written), and they flip town (if scum bussed), then the probability of scum having bussed goes up. Like, if there's one living player who wasn't on the wagon, and nine dead townies who weren't on the wagon, it's probably a bad idea to lynch them just because they weren't on the wagon; at some point, the number of bodies speaks for itself. However, we've had one mislynch already; deciding, for example, to lynch Benmage because Red was actually town is clearly premature, because it relies on essentially an implausible conspiracy theory for justification. And one does see these things, like there are players who would be suspicious of Benmage purely because it's hard to get an accurate Day 1 lynch unless scum lead it; it's literally like a conspiracy theory. I don't want to go there, because it's not like we've lynched many people yet, but I'm unsure about the correct time to start thinking maybe we're not right.

Specifically, if I was asked what the typical play would be, I would answer probably one scum on the wagon and one off. That means if we lynch scum off, we might keep looking off-wagon too long due to earlier success.

Oh, and he hasn't followed up on the Lrdwhyt suspicions he mentioned above--even though Lrdwhyt is the only player he seems to be suspicious of so far.

I don't believe I said I was suspicious of him. I said I was interested, inthat I mean I think he needed to be at least poked at a bit, and maybe something scummy will fall out, but don't think I'd seen anything scummy from him. (Amongst other things - wait for it - I need to reread.)

Instead of coasting, why didn't you just get off your ass, reread Baby Spice, and then come back to us when you had something constructive to add? Or just reread Percy's more recent posts explaining his change of heart on Dry-Fit, and provided your own analysis on whether you thought his excuses were plausible?

I'm not sure precisely why you think I'm coasting; I've actually had real-life stuff since around the end of Day 1, but coasting would imply that I'm sitting here deliberately not working in order to spite you. Obviously, I can play better if I spend more time on mafia, but that's always true; if you think this is insufficient, then the thing to do would probably be suggesting that I replace out, although obviously

now

I'm loathe to do that. Ug.

I should reread his Day One, because I remember feeling that he was townish at certain points, but his Day Two posts are scumtastic, particularly coming from a

strong experienced player

.

I'm not even going to go there, but I am curious why you have that impression of me.

He has zero conviction or passion, has put no pressure on anyone (he still hasn't voted), and his picture could appear in the dictionary beside the word "wishy-washy."

I'm not passionate about mafia as either alignment, I'm not sure why that's a tell. With respect to pressure, I didn't feel that anyone needed more pressure; in terms of the popular wagons, my impression of the game was that Percy was the likeliest lynch and shouldn't be pressed further without a better case, that pressuring Baby Spice would be counter-productive, and that I didn't have much leverage to pressure LrdWhyt with, and jumping on because "lol wagon" would have been greeted with distaste; in retrospect, I wish I had reread the case and pressured him, but that's a symptom of being behind generally. I don't think voting anyone else would have caused much pressure without a convincing reason for others to hop on, which I don't have.

Seriously. I'm an indecisive, waffling player. I know what genuine indecision looks like. This is not it.

I don't think I'm being indecisive. I actually think my opinions have been quite consistent, it's simply that I think a lot of the arguments out there are bad, and I'm behind on the game generally; I'm also finding it hard to find stuff when rereading, and some of it's very unclear. I'll probably just reread the entire thing soon.

But in perspective, we're still somewhat early on Day 2 in a large game. We had one scum lynch, and what to draw from that wagon has largely been what I've asked about, and another lynch that I do not think is terribly helpful as previously stated. In that context, I do not think it's horrible to not have strong scum reads when the number of scum is lower than usual. To be blunt, I believe I am thinking about the game more than e.g. some of the Baby Spice voters precisely because of that. While it's fairly obvious how it might benefit scum, I haven't seen an argument as to why I'm supposed to hold strong opinions as this point, or even how having null reads of several people is necessarily less than ideal play.

How about you rank all the players in the game according to your suspect levels?

I don't know what a suspect level is. I now have a mental image of this with things like "suspect level fuchsia" written on it. Thanks for that.

JasonT1981 - I think the way Dry-Fit freely jumped on him makes him very likely town.
Benmage - My early town read is pure gut, I think, but his role in the wagon boosts that some.
Thor665 - Thor seems pretty townish to me. I actually liked Nikanor a bit more with time.
I Am Innocent - I really think the thing with the numbers was genuine.
~~~
Locke Lamora - Mostly for being on the wagon in a good place, he's kind of a wildcard due to not doing much though.
Mina - Mildly townish 'till now, weird absence around the Dry-fit wagon iirc. Probably I'm OMG-U-Rock-ing; it's fairly weird to attack me now if she's scum.
KaleiÐoscøpe - Hard to read. Not that convinced with respect to the Dry-Fit wagon; he had a good reason, but (typically) didn't push it with any force.
Percy - Due to the end of Day 1 & Benmage not dying. Both of those reasons are somewhat thin, though.
~~~
Sotty7 - Something of a wildcard to me. Arguably the likeliest forced-busser on the Dry-Fit wagon. Haven't really seen anything I'd consider townish.
Baby Spice / Furcolow - They look really really null to me. On some level I want to think they're both town, but I have no idea how I'd figure out they're scum.
Lrdwhyt - I am just reskimming Mina's case and it actually looks pretty good. Also, the recent hop is pretty lolbad from my point of view (sup Benmage).

I would probably guess Lrdwhyt and Sotty at this point.

[Elmo]

...devil in the details and all that. VOTE: Lrdwhyt

Elmo, me not dying in relation to Percy is a lot of wine.

I agree; it depends on what the scum think we would do. I think that towns have a consistent record of not analysing nightkills, so I personally would have killed you (sorry!), but without knowing exactly who they are, it's hard to know whether scum have the same viewpoint. However, there's also the factor of whether you'd lead a Percy lynch if left alive - I actually came into today thinking Percy would be lynched pretty much regardless. If they think that, then it makes sense to kill you anyway, since Percy is dying either way, and they have to kill you at some future point when Percy flips. So for them, it's a decision of which risk they'd prefer.

But yes, it is rather WIFOMy and I totally understand people disagreeing with me on that.

[Elmo]

(I'm happy with how my Lrdwhyt and Elmo votes turned out)

Back to lurking!

[Elmo]

KScope's iso is always terrible, unfortunately.

Also extremely unimpressed that you are also pairing me with Lrd like your BFF Baby. But at least your voting the right way round unlike Babyspice.

I'm not sure why that is. I think he's definitely scummy and you're sorta free-floating on my list, right now. I haven't found anything that looks associative between you, but I can't think of a good reason this isn't plausible. Why are you unimpressed?

No, I'm voting Babyspice for pushing scummy logic. Jason's slip wasn't a slip and therefore

wasn't

scummy.

That is not the defence of Jason that I quoted, though. You said:

He has a tendency to get into trouble like this because he tends to play on emotions and will just knee jerk to everything. As scum he is much more composed.

and I do think that is a very plausible explanation for at least parts of her play, in particular her stance on Benmage. I am not calling you out on a double standard, but I do think it's odd that you don't appear to have even considered this; in particular

I see no reason to attribute Babyspice's actions as VI over scummy. But as I think your question over, I guess I have no hardened reasoning why. I find her moves scummy and not stupid.

that, and as far as I can see, don't seem to find it an important thing to think about.

I really do think that it's odd that you don't have this train of thought if you're town. Why do you think it's scummy and not stupid?

Lrd's vote on Elmo is awful it does not count as scum hunting. Benmage's push on him is good in that respect.

Would you like to see a Lrd lynch in the second part of today?

I am still hugely behind and will be semi-lurky for a while longer.

[Elmo]

Meh, middle of writing a post, but I can't really complain; should probably kill someone at this point.
I don't think this was a good wagon, hopefully we lucked it. (shrug)

[Elmo]

lulz, it has to be Empking at this point. Just look at how he and his predecessors manoeuvred.

Cannot wait for the Benmage reaction post.

[Elmo]

Also, Thor's signature is now 100% funnier and needs to be updated with the role reveal.

[Elmo]

Also Elmo is so obv town that he should be in the dictionary for it.

This is WIFOM, but I'd actually say that makes Elmo

less

likely to be her buddy.

I'm actually starting to think this is a scumtell.

:<

[Elmo]

bore-nom

[Elmo]

Speaking of which, I've noticed Elmo lurking in the forum earlier today. I don't suppose you're willing to answer this:

I meant from Baby Spice; that, in retrospect, people calling me obv town like that seem to be scum a lot.

or this:

@Elmo - you've practically not given a substantive post since the lynch, is there a strategy here or are you just lost?

Why are you so apathetic about this game, given that the town is almost certainly going to win?

...the answer is in the question? I think Emp's scum, I think he's probably going to be lynched today, I don't think people will lynch before deadline which is still like a week away. General disinterest, as well. (The lack of posting is not all apathy, but it's probably a contributor.)

Fwiw, I don't see why speedlynching's supposed to be a good idea. I can comment on a bunch of other stuff, but I don't think it's worthwhile, so ask if you actually want.

I wanted to hammer, but whatever. VOTE: Empking

[Elmo]

Elmo, say we replaced "speedlynches" with "reasonable debate as to who would go first." Do you still agree that the scum are almost certainly in that group of five players?

No, for two reasons. Firstly, I don't see a good reason to pin the game on people like IAI & Furco being town. Secondly, I'd actually be pretty surprised if that was true over the long run, because it'd mean scum almost never bussed in a setup well-suited to bussing; I assume this group is generated mostly from who was on the scum wagons.

I also hate Elmo now

WhadIdo?

One other thing I'd like to say after reading back: I've got my eye on Elmo. Something I've spotted has pinged my scumdar, but I'd like to hear from him on this situation first before I ask him about it.

Would you like to be a little more specific? I think I've said everything I'd like.

[Elmo]

You keep checking out of the game. Stop that or replace out.

Previously, yeah, mea culpa (albeit I couldn't stop it) and I said I'd replace out if it continued and people wanted. As of now, I think it's Empking, I'm waiting for people to lynch him, and I don't actually feel like I need to do more. I feel he's extremely likely to be the last scum, and that any analysis based on "if it's not him, then who is it" is very likely to be wasted effort. Predictably, if we do lynch him and he's town, then I'll be very confused and either Do Stuff or replace out.

[Elmo]

Hrm, gg. I dunno about the balance, I don't really feel the setup factored into the result much, actually I feel we were slightly lucky to lynch Dry-fit even though there was a legit case against him, and unless I missed something I still think we're simply lucky Baby Spice was assigned scum.

Don't think anyone'll want to hear other stuff I could think of. The avatar bet should have gone ahead, obv

[Elmo]

Eh, I don't really agree with respect to this specific game, I mean town won with literally one lynch left after an arguably great start. I think the setup itself is a mix of vanilla normal and nightless, and in my opinion therefore shares some balance problems e.g. 4:8 nightless has - some people consider that balanced, though, it's indefinitely debatable until people play more games. You'd probably do better to try and balance vanilla nightless first and then try to apply the knowledge to this setup. I'm probably not gonna comment on this specific game unprompted.

[Elmo]

Mmh. KScope is never a bad lynch.

I just now looked through your posts because I had great difficulty finding the case at the time. I don't think her slip was a slip - I just can't really imagine scum blurting that kind of thing out, and I've seen town use that kind of phrasing before. I do think her vote on Lrdwhyt was scummy, actually. I see the argument for but don't really buy into the point about her going after Benmage's early mistake about lynching; it's pretty clear he made a mistake, but remember that IAI did something very similar and he turned out to be town; maybe there's a finer distinction to be made there, but that influenced my view. I think her position against Benmage as "arrogant scum" isn't scummy; I think it's literally possibly true but a dubious position to take, but to me it's believable that a townie would have that reaction to Benmage's general abrasiveness, and I still don't really see any tactical gain from it.